Ziel dieser Studie, die auf Anregung des BUND entstand, ist es, zu fünf Fragen Stellung zu nehmen, die für die Gestaltung einer nachhaltigen und effizienten Luftverkehrsentwicklung in Deutschland wichtig sind. 1. Welche Kapazität haben die Bahnensysteme der drei großen Flughäfen Berlin (BER), München und Düsseldorf? Müssen diese Flughäfen um weitere Bahnen vergrößert werden oder reicht ihre Kapazität aus? 2. Welche flughafenrelevanten Trends bestimmen den Luftverkehr in Deutschland? Muss man den aktuellen Forderungen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft folgen oder gibt es auch Anzeichen für alternative Entwicklungen, die nachhaltiger sind und zu effizienteren Lösungen führen? 3. Wie gut und verlässlich sind Prognosen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft? Muss man diese Prognosen hinnehmen oder gibt es Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass sie systematisch unzuverlässig sind? 4. Wie sind die wirtschaftlichen Perspektiven der Flughäfen? Warum erzielen so viele Flughäfen Verluste? Was kann getan werden, um die Verluste zu verringern? 5. Welche Erfahrungen gibt es mit Flughafenkooperationen? Müssen Flughäfen immer alleinstehende Unternehmen darstellen oder gibt es Beispiele für gelungene kooperative Lösungen? Die Studie beleuchtet historische Erfahrungen, stellt aktuelle Entwicklungen vor und zieht Schlussfolgerungen für eine zukunftsfähige Luftverkehrspolitik in Deutschland. Drei wesentliche Aspekte dabei sind eine marktgerechte Internalisierung externer Effekte des Luftverkehrs, eine verstärkte Kooperation von Flughäfen in Deutschland und eine weitere Marktöffnung des deutschen Marktes für ausländische Wettbewerber. Großer Dank wird den Mitgliedern der Forschungsgruppe Luftverkehr geschuldet, die wertvolle Informationen beigetragen haben, ohne die diese Studie nicht hätte entstehen können. / The aim of the study is to discuss five aspects of the German aviation system which are debated intensely in Germany. The first aspect is the problem of the capacity of airports. There are several airports with two runways. The question arose what is the capacity of these airports? Some wanted to add third ones to cope with future growth while others argued the capacity would be sufficient for the foreseeable future. This leads to the second aspect which covers the trends that dominate the further development of the German aviation markets. The latter will be shaped by the competition between various airlines and various airports. Especially important will be the new competition between old airports in Europe and new ones in Istanbul, Dubai or Abu Dhabi. Equally important is the question, how good forecasts of future growth of airports are (third aspect). Studies delivered by airports themselves show a systematic overestimation of their own growth. This leads to the fourth aspect, i.e. to the question of the economic situation of small and large airports in Germany. We have to ask, why there are so many small airports with losses. Last but not least the following topic has to be discussed: could more cooperation between large and small airports solve the difficult economic situation of the small ones without hindering the large ones? International examples are being analysed. The study concludes with a proposal for the further development of the German aviation system.

Le bus est le moins cher des transports en commun. En contrepartie, il est beaucoup plus difficile à exploiter que le tramway ou le métro qui sont mieux protégés des influences extérieures. Un exemple typique est l’apparition de trains de bus, groupes de véhicules appartenant à la même ligne et arrivant ensemble à un arrêt. Ce phénomène augmente le temps d’attente moyen des usagers aux arrêts et induit un mauvais usage des bus disponibles. Cette thèse développe les outils permettant de garantir la régularité des lignes. Les recherches menées au cours de cette thèse s’articulent suivant deux directions.Un premier constat est que les modèles de lignes de bus existants ne prennent pas en compte les éléments extérieurs que sont les feux de circulation et le trafic environnant. L’absence d’une modélisation mixte intégrant aussi bien les dynamiques internes des lignes que les influences extérieures contraint fortement la diversité des stratégies de contrôle qui ont été proposées jusqu’ici. En effet, les régulations s’appliquent principalement au niveau des arrêts par l’intermédiaire des conducteurs et ne cherchent jamais à réguler le trafic à l’aide des feux de circulation. Un premier axe de recherche développé dans cette thèse est le raffinement des modèles de bus pour prendre en compte le trafic.Plusieurs méthodes d’estimation de temps de parcours sur un boulevard à feu sont proposées. Elles sont basées sur le modèle LWR, compromis fort satisfaisant entre simplicité d’usage et robustesse pour reproduire des situations réelles.Un second constat est que les stratégies de régulation classiques ne sont que rarement basées sur une prévision à court-terme de l'état du système. Elles sont donc souvent actionnées une fois que la situation est trop dégradée, ce qui les rend parfois inaptes à compenser l'instabilité des lignes. Le deuxième axe de recherche consiste à appliquer les modèles raffinés dans un contexte d’exploitation en temps-réel. Le modèle prévoit l'évolution des lignes de bus à court terme, ce qui permet d’actionner préventivement une stratégie de régulation adaptée. En particulier, une méthode de prévision à court terme est développée et testée sur des données réelles. Elle est ensuite combinée à une méthode récente de contrôle des bus. / Bus is cheaper than other transport modes. However, maintaining optimal operations is harder than for streetcars or subways since buses are surrounded by traffic flows. Sometimes, buses of the same route bunch and travel together instead of keeping constant time headways. This phenomenon increases the average waiting time of passengers. As a result, they may tend to shift to other transport modes. This thesis proposes some methods to keep bus routes regular. Two main lines of research are investigated.First, classical models of bus routes do not account for external events like traffic signals and traffic flows. Due to this gap, existing control strategies only apply on buses through their drivers.Traffic flows are not controlled to favor buses compared to cars. Thus, the first area of research consists in refining bus models to account for external events. Several travel time estimation methods on urban arterials are proposed. They are based on the kinematic wave model (LWR). It is known to be a fine trade-off between simplicity and robustness to properly reproduce traffic dynamics.Second, control strategies are often applied once the bus route is too disrupted to be restored to regularity. Predictions of future bus route states could improve the efficiency of regulations. The second area of research consists in using the refined bus models in real time operations. The model forecasts the evolution of buses on their route for short-term. The predictions are evaluated thanks to real data to guarantee their quality. Then it enables regulations to be applied before bunching. In particular, height holding control methods are presented and compared in simulation.

Temperaturprognoser är av stor betydelse för många i dagens samhälle, både privatpersoner och diverse olika sektorer. Förväntan på att prognoserna håller hög träffsäkerhet är stor och god kvalitet på dessa är viktigt av många olika aspekter. De numeriska vädermodellerna, som används för att göra väderprognoser, har brister som i stort sätt alltid leder till systematiska fel i prognoserna. Bristerna beror exempelvis på dålig representation av atmosfärens fysikaliska processer och för att korrigera och reducera dessa fel efterbehandlas prognoserna med olika metoder, så kallad post-processing. För att minimera de systematiska felen och öka träffsäkerheten för prognoserna pågår ständigt en utveckling och förbättring av både modellerna och post-processingmetodiken. Uppföljning och utvärdering av prognoser är av stor nytta för denna utveckling som ska leda till minimering av prognosfel och optimering av modell och metodik. I denna studie har temperaturprognosdata, med prognoslängd 0-12 timmar, från Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI) och norska Meteorologisk institutt (met.no) jämförts med uppmätta värden för 2 m-temperatur. Observerad temperaturdata från 22 olika synoptiska väderstationer på platser utspridda över hela Sverige har använts i studien och perioden som studien är baserad på är 20 februari till 31 maj 2018. Statistiska mått, med mest fokus på korrelationskoefficient och bias, har analyserats och jämförts för att undersöka likheter och skillnader i temperaturprognoserna från de två olika väderinstituten. Resultaten av studien visar att temperaturprognoserna från met.no generellt sett har något högre träffsäkerhet än SMHI:s för de allra flesta av de 22 geografiska platserna. Båda institutens prognoser har för flertalet av stationerna i fjällen samt norra Sverige generellt sett lägre träffsäkerhet för februari än för mars, april och maj. / Temperature forecasts are of great importance for many different reasons in today's society, both for private individuals and various sectors. The expectations that the forecasts maintain high accuracy and good quality is important in many different aspects. The weather models, which are used to make the forecasts, have deficiencies which in large part always lead to systematic errors in the forecasts. The deficiencies are for example, due to poor representation of the physical processes of the atmosphere and to correct and reduce these errors, the forecasts are post-processed by various methods. To minimize the systematic errors and increase the accuracy of the forecasts, there is an ongoing development and improvement of both the models and the post-processing methods. Evaluation of forecasts is of great benefit to this development, which will lead to minimization of forecast errors and optimization of the model and methodology. In this study, temperature forecast data, with a forecast length of 0-12 hours, from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no) were compared with measured 2 m-temperature values. Observed temperature data from 22 different weather stations in locations scattered all over Sweden have been used in the study and the period on which the study is based is from the 20th of February to 31st of May, 2018. Different statistical measures have been analyzed and compared to examine similarities and differences in temperature forecasts from the two different weather institutes. The results of the study show that met.no's temperature forecasts generally have slightly higher accuracy than SMHI's for most of the 22 locations. For any of the stations in the mountains and northern Sweden forecasts from both institutes generally have lower accuracy for February than March, April and May.

本研究旨在探討我國一般產業之上市公司，其分析師盈餘預測與管理當局盈餘預測間之差異，並且檢視在資本市場中是否具有抑制公司經理人員任意發佈預測之機制。除此之外，亦檢測市場達成共識之程度是否為管理者盈餘管理之誘因，以及其盈餘管理的程度與方向。 研究樣本取自我國上市公司一般產業之財務預測年資料與實際經營結果財務年資料，研究期間涵蓋自民國85年至88年止。 實證結果發現管理當局不論是對市場傳遞好消息或壞消息，皆是其盈餘管理之結果。再者，當市場預期趨近於一致時，公司管理當局愈會對市場傳遞出中性消息，亦即分析師之盈餘預測與管理當局盈餘預測趨於無差異。同時公司亦可能基於市場壓力，而利用裁決性應計項目以從事盈餘管理。當操縱前盈餘高於分析師預期之平均盈餘時且市場達成共識時，經理人員會傾向不從事盈餘管理，而在市場預期一致性程度低時，從事盈餘管理；反之，當操縱前盈餘低於分析師預期之平均盈餘，且市場預期一致性程度高時才會進行盈餘管理以增加盈餘而達成市場的預期。 / I test a market expectations and market consensus hypothesis about earnings management in Taiwan's public firms from 1996 to 1999. First of all, no matter what a good news or bad news that managers spread in markets is the result of earnings management. Furthermore, when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings forecasts, managers' earnings forecasts are close to market expectations as possible. At the same time, managers also have an incentive to manage earnings through discretionary accruals to achieve market expectations. Finally, all sample-corporations are split into two groups. Group 1 observations have nondiscretionary earnings below the mean analysts' forecast, and Group 2 observations have nondiscretionary earnings above the mean analysts' forecast. The results suggest the corporation managers in Group 1 make greater use of discretionary accruals to manipulate earnings to achieve market expectations when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings predictions. Oppositely, the corporation managers in Group 2 make less use of discretionary accruals to save them in use of next period when analysts lacks consensus in their earnings forecasts.

論文提要 本研究目的在於探討新上市公司在申請上市時所編製的強制性財務預測與上市後業績變動及盈餘管理的相關性。 本研究採實證之方式，選取民國80年6月到86年底之新上市公司曾在上市當年及上市後三年內公告或更新財務預測者。利用迴歸分析、卡方分析、T檢定及Wilcoxon Rank Sum 檢定，而研究結果如下： 1. 由於新上市申請的相關規定，若公司預期本身經營績效不佳時，會提出較為樂觀之財務預測，以利上市審查。 2. 新上市公司上市後的經營績效變異程度與財務預測的過度樂觀程度呈現正相關，但是當樂觀程度定義為來自營業活動的現金流量時，並不顯著，可能是公司僅需注意營業毛利與稅前淨利是否達成，對現金流量之預測較沒有達成的壓力所致。 3. 新上市公司提出之強制性財務預測過於樂觀者在上市前盈餘管理之現象並不顯著，其可能原因在於本研究採用之盈餘管理定義僅限於與營業有關之裁決性應計項目，而無法看出公司利用其他項目來進行盈餘管理。 4. 上市前從事盈餘管理之公司，除了現金流量之準確度不明顯外，業績衰退和業績成長公司在財務預測準確度上明顯不同，但是在財務預測更新行為上並無顯荖不同。 5. 新上市公司面臨更新財務預測時，會傾向利用應計項目操縱來規避調整。 / The Relationship among Change in Operating Perfomance, Earning Management and the Revision of Mandatory Forecasts Abstract This research aims to examine the relationship among change in initial public offering firms, earning management and the revision of mandatory forecasts. This study contends that the forecast revisions should significantly correlate with changes in IPO's performance. The samples of this study range from June 30th, 1991 to December 31st , 1997. The empirical results of this study can be summarized as follows: O Due to related regulations, if IPO firms predict its insufficient operation performance, the mandatory forecasts of IPO firms are usually optimistic, for the convenience of examination. O The IPO firms' variation degree of operation efficiency and the over-optimistic forecasts are correlated positively. O If IPO firms' mandatory forecasts are over-optimistic, the earning management is not correlated significantly. O Before public offering, among the firms which manipulate earnings, there is significant difference between firms with declining performance and firms with growing performance. O When the IPO firms face revisions of forecasts, the firms would tend to manipulate accruals to avoid revisions.

本研究旨在探討沙氏法302條款（Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 302，以下簡稱SOX302）、沙氏法404條款（Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 404，以下簡稱SOX404）與管理當局盈餘預測之關聯性，係美國S&P500之公司為研究對象，研究期間為2002年至2009年，主要檢測：(1)相對於SOX 404而言，在SOX 302規範下揭露無內部控制缺失之公司，其管理當局盈餘預測準確度是否會較低。(2)在SOX 404之規範下揭露有內部控制缺失之公司，公司層級的內部控制缺失相較於會計層級的內部控制缺失，是否會導致管理當局盈餘預測準確度較低。 本研究之實證結果顯示：(1)在無內部控制缺失情況下，相對於SOX 404而言，在SOX 302規範下，管理當局盈餘預測準確度會較低。(2)在SOX 404之規範下揭露有內部控制缺失之公司，公司層級的內部控制缺失相較於會計層級的內部控制缺失，會導致管理當局盈餘預測準確度較低。 / The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relation among SOX302, SOX404 and the accuracy of management earnings forecasts. Using a sample of S&P listed companies during the period 2002-2009, I address the following issues: (1) whether companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecast accuracy, compared with those under SOX404; (2) in the SOX404 context, whether companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy, compared with those with account-specific material weaknesses. As predicted, my empirical results show that: (1) compared with those under SOX404, companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecasts accuracy; (2) compared with those that disclosed account-specific material weaknesses under SOX404, the companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy.

Accurate demand forecasting is a key capability for a manufacturing organization, more so, a semiconductor manufacturer. Many crucial decisions are based on demand forecasts. The semiconductor industry is characterized by very short product lifecycles (10 to 24 months) and extremely uncertain demand. The pace at which both the manufacturing technology and the product design changes, induce change in manufacturing throughput and potential demand. Well known methods like exponential smoothing, moving average, weighted moving average, ARMA, ARIMA, econometric methods and neural networks have been used in industry with varying degrees of success. We propose a novel forecasting technique which is based on Support Vector Regression (SVR). Specifically, we formulate ν-SVR models for semiconductor product demand data. We propose a 3-phased input vector modeling approach to comprehend demand characteristics learnt while building a standard ARIMA model on the data. Forecasting Experimentations are done for different semiconductor product demand data like 32 & 64 bit CPU products, 32bit Micro controller units, DSP for cellular products, NAND and NOR Flash Products. Demand data was provided by SRC(Semiconductor Research Consortium) Member Companies. Demand data was actual sales recorded at every month. Model performance is judged based on different performance metrics used in extant literature. Results of experimentation show that compared to other demand forecasting techniques ν-SVR can significantly reduce both mean absolute percentage errors and normalized mean-squared errors of forecasts. ν-SVR with our 3-phased input vector modeling approach performs better than standard ARIMA and simple ν-SVR models in most of the cases.

Studiens syfte var att undersöka hur svenska storföretag ser på sitt arbete med budget som ekonomistyrningssystem. Tidigare forskning indikerar på att trots den omfattande kritik som finns mot budget så tenderar företag att inte instämma i den. Kritikerna hävdar, bland många saker, att budgeten skulle vara resurskrävande, inflexibel, inaktuell och ge upphov till manipulering. Alternativet, menar de mer radikala kritikerna, skulle vara att överge budget och arbeta fullständigt med alternativa lösningar. Empiriska studier visar att budget används av företagen men förbättras och omvärderas med tiden för att anpassas bättre till verksamheten. Tidigare forskning har visat att de alternativ som förespråkas i budgetlös styrning inte förutsätter att budgeten överges för att bli användbara. Tidigare studier om företags inställning till budgetering har gjorts i bland annat Nederländerna och Nordamerika. Det finns alltså ingen studie som mäter svenska företags inställning. Svenska företag utmärker sig dels genom kulturen men framförallt genom att annorlunda ledarskap. Komplexiteten i storföretag har för den här studien inneburit att urvalsgruppen att undersöka blev svenska storföretag. Urvalsgruppen undersöktes genom ett oberoende slumpmässigt urval. Det positivistiska synsättet har lett till ett kvantitativt tillvägagångssätt med enkät som verktyget för att nå populationen. Populationen svenska storföretag utgjordes 2013 av 1850 företag och vårt stickprov bestod av 250 företag. Genom att jämföra stickprovet i den här studien mot hela populationen kunde vi konstatera att omsättning och antal anställda inte avviker nämnvärt mellan grupperna. En bortfallsanalys utfördes mellan respondenterna som svarade innan och efter att en påminnelse skickats ut och resulterade i statistiskt säkerställda resultat där grupperna svarade homogent. Majoriteten av storföretagen arbetar med budgetering. Resultaten baserades på 41 respondenters svar och kan i en hög grad sägas vara statistiskt säkerställda. Det finns några påståenden där en alltför stor osäkerhet finns men slutsatsen blir utifrån de statistiskt säkerställda resultaten att budgeten är här för att stanna. Budgetens syfte är att skapa ekonomisk överblick och den förbättras och kompletteras med hjälp av de verktyg som budgetlös styrning förespråkar. Kritiken kunde i stor utsträckning förkastas. Vi tror att vidare forskning handlar om ett kvalitativt tillvägagångssätt för samma population eller ett byte av målgrupp men med liknande forskningsfråga för att se om mindre företag delar storföretagens åsikter om budget. / The purpose of this study was to examine large Swedish corporations approach on their budgets as management control systems. Recent research indicates that corporations tend to disagree with the widespread criticism against budgeting. Critics claims, among many other things, that the budget is costly, inflexible, outdated and give rise to manipulation. The more radical critics argue that the alternative would be to abandon the budget and work completely with alternative solutions. Resent research indicates that corporations are still working with budgeting but with an improved version that is re-evaluated over time to adapt better to the business. Another important aspect that previous research shows was that the preferred option in beyond budgeting does not require the budget to be totally abandoned to become useful. Previous studies on corporations attitude towards budget were made, inter alia, in the Netherlands and North America. Thus, there was no study that measured the Swedish corporate attitude towards budgeting. Swedish corporations distinguish themselves partly by culture but mostly by their leadership. The selection group in this study was based on the complexity of large corporations. We examine the population by an independent random sample with a positivistic view. That means a quantitative approach with survey as a tool to reach the population. In 2013 the population of large Swedish corporations consisted of 1850 corporations. By comparing the sample in this study to the entire population, we found that turnover and number of employees does not differ significantly between the groups. A non-response analysis was performed between respondents who answered before and after a reminder were sent out and resulted in statistically reliable results where groups responded homogeneously. The majority of large corporations are currently working with budgeting. This results includes answers from 41 respondents' and in a largely, it is to be said, statistically significant. There are some statements in which too much uncertainty exists but the conclusion was based on the statistically significant findings that the budget is here to stay. The budget aims to create economic overview and is improved and supplemented with the help of the tools beyond budgeting advocates. Largely the criticism could be rejected as false. We believe that further research examine budgeting through a qualitative approach to the same population or a change of the population but with similar research question to see if the smaller corporations share larger corporations' opinion about budgeting.

Portfolio optimisation has a number of constraints resulting from some practical matters and regulations. The closed-form mathematical solution of portfolio optimisation problems usually cannot include these constraints. Exhaustive search to reach the exact solution can take prohibitive amount of computational time. Portfolio optimisation models are also usually impaired by the estimation error problem caused by lack of ability to predict the future accurately. A number of Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithms are proposed to solve the problem with two objectives subject to cardinality constraints, floor constraints and round-lot constraints. Fuzzy logic is incorporated into the Vector Evaluated Genetic Algorithm (VEGA) to but solutions tend to cluster around a few points. Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) gives solutions which are evenly distributed portfolio along the effective front while MOGA is more time efficient. An Evolutionary Artificial Neural Network (EANN) is proposed. It automatically evolves the ANN's initial values and structures hidden nodes and layers. The EANN gives a better performance in stock return forecasts in comparison with those of Ordinary Least Square Estimation and of Back Propagation and Elman Recurrent ANNs. Adaptation algorithms for selecting a pair of forecasting models, which are based on fuzzy logic-like rules, are proposed to select best models given an economic scenario. Their predictive performances are better than those of the comparing forecasting models. MOGA and SPEA2 are modified to include a third objective to handle model risk and are evaluated and tested for their performances. The result shows that they perform better than those without the third objective.

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal