The proposed research aspires to provide new insight on issues of applied Roadmapping and advance the state of the art in Roadmapping and its practice. It provides a conceptual model and an integrated process framework for the development of a Third Generation, Meso-level, Co-innovation Dynamic Roadmapping (from now on called ‘Dynamic Roadmapping’), which integrates policy, research, industry, and organisational roadmapping methodologies, in order to manage the development and adoption of systemic innovations in complex domains. It has been developed to meet the needs of increasingly complex systemic innovations where multiple organisations are involved as co-innovators and many other intermediaries and decision makers need to be included in the innovation adoption process. These types of innovations are usually driven by the interplay of multi-dimensional and cross-impacting factors derived from changes in social, market, economic, political and technology systems. Thus, the ‘Dynamic Roadmapping’ does not presuppose a single desired future for complex domains, but several futures, based on the complementary strategic perspectives of inter-dependent stakeholders, which need to be contextualised and negotiated at various sectoral, national and regional levels in order to be adopted. The ‘Dynamic Roadmapping’ approach supports the achievement of the realisation of the desired futures through two main components: a ‘co-innovation group’ and an ‘observatory function’. The co-innovation group is formed from all the necessary co-innovators, adopters, decision makers and users that are needed in order for the innovations to be developed and adopted. Their function is predominately ‘normative’ describing “what they want to happen” and “how” it will happen. The observatory function provides foresight and sense making methodologies to the co-innovation group, in order to constantly review and adapt their roadmaps in light of the emerging changes that can impact the roadmaps’ realisation and adoption. A conceptual model and its theoretical grounding have been built in order to bridge support for roadmapping activities among different innovative communities (e.g. in policy, research, industry and practice) and foster their collaboration via stakeholders’ innovation networks. The proposed conceptual model and its process framework have been evaluated in a case study in order to establish its validity in the European context and provide implications to theory and practice. A pilot of this framework is first implemented for the area of Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL). The impact of this research is: - Managing uncertainty in Future planning - Managing and implementing emergent Roadmaps for systemic innovations - Monitoring and adapt the produced Roadmaps according to change factors in emerging reality - Ensure their adoption in complex domain This research work has been funded by an EU Marie-Curry Fellowship grant via the DYRECT project no. 255182. The proposed integrated framework has been adopted by the EU TEL-Map project (in education sector) and EU CRe-AM project (in creative industry sector). It has been documented in many European project deliverables as well as in international conference papers, and in journal papers.

The study of foresight methodology has traditionally focused on the anticipation and development of future scenarios. It is somewhat surprising that, despite the impact that the advice generated with foresight may have had on Research and Innovation(R&I) policy action, the analysis of the process whereby foresight actually creates policy recommendations has so far been ignored in the literature. This thesis explores this process, trying to identify those elements that have a greater influence in the final advice characteristics. The research draws on the study of two European cases, which are analysed with very different methods. The first case is addressed with critical discourse analysis, which constitutes a methodological innovation in the area of foresight evaluation. The second case is explored through action research, which facilitated an in-depth examination of the foresight process and an exhaustive tracking of the activities that gave rise to the final recommendations. In both cases special attention is paid to the role and utility of future anticipation. The combination of these methods helped in understanding: the effect that repositioning advisors’ mindsets in highly transformed futures has in the volume and originality of the insights generated, the importance of achieving a balanced representation of the R&I actors in the discussion groups, and the relevance that argumentation has in the formation of final advice. Understanding these factors would contribute to improve the quality and consistency of foresight advice discourses, thus augmenting their possibilities for acceptance and implementation by policy makers.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo contribuir com a atividade de extração de rochas ornamentais, por meio de propostas com recomendações que possam indicar passos a serem seguidos (guidelines) para a sustentabilidade desse setor, utilizando como estudo de caso a região noroeste do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para isso são feitas propostas de planejamento em longo prazo por meio do Processo Prospectivo e, em mais curto prazo, por um esquema de certificação sustentável para a atividade, com vistas à sustentabilidade desse polo produtor, considerando sua importância e os problemas existentes. O Processo Prospectivo, feito mediante a utilização da abordagem inicial do Processo Prospectivo, com a varredura (scanning) do ambiente, e aplicado para a região noroeste do estado do Espírito Santo, apresentou-se como uma ferramenta adequada para atingir os objetivos do presente estudo, principalmente por apontar, a partir dos resultados, além da sua continuidade, também a viabilidade de implementar uma certificação de sustentabilidade para o setor de rochas ornamentais, pela concordância observada nos resultados obtidos, na visão dos stakeholders. Para a proposta de certificação sustentável foi feita uma pesquisa por meio de questionário com stakeholders chave da indústria de rochas ornamentais para identificar a percepção desses com relação à iniciativa, que incluiu tópicos gerais e específicos divididos em três temas principais: sustentabilidade da indústria de rochas ornamentais no Brasil; desafios para a sustentabilidade dessa indústria e deficiências e omissões da regulamentação vigente, relativa a esses desafios; e a viabilidade de um processo de certificação sustentável para a indústria de rochas ornamentais no Espírito Santo e a participação dos stakeholders e de seus órgãos nesse processo. Os resultados obtidos com o desenvolvimento do presente estudo permitem concluir que, na visão dos stakeholders da indústria de rochas ornamentais do Brasil, em especial na visão daqueles do estado de Espírito Santo, a formalização das empresas do setor, aliada a um processo de certificação, tem potencial para gerar benefícios significativos para o desenvolvimento local e/ou regional sustentável, o que coincide com outras experiências apresentadas na literatura vigente. Os resultados também mostraram que ainda há muito a ser estudado antes que uma certificação sustentável seja implementada, mas que há sinais encorajadores para a continuidade do trabalho, pois parte significativa dos stakeholders (sociedade, governo e empresários do setor) respondeu favoravelmente a essa iniciativa para o setor, até mesmo em âmbito nacional. Nesse sentido, é reforçada a importância da cooperação entre o setor, a sociedade e governo federal, estadual e municipal em todo o processo, de modo a se criar uma cultura que possibilite a sustentabilidade efetiva desse setor. Finalmente, o trabalho mostra que, apesar dos desafios existentes, as propostas de continuidade do Processo Prospectivo e de viabilização de um processo de certificação sustentável têm potencial para aprimorar a indústria de rochas ornamentais pela adoção de critérios, que visem não somente as questões de caráter econômico, como aquelas que melhorem a performance social e ambiental para a efetiva sustentabilidade dessa indústria. / This work aims to contribute with dimension stones industry by doing proposals and recommendations of guidelines to the sustainability of this industry, based on northwest region of Espirito Santo State as case study. Long term planning by applying the Foresight and of short term a Sustainability Certification Scheme are proposed in order to achieve the sustainability of the producer pole by considering its relevance and the existents problems. Foresight was applied for the northwest region using an initial approach of Foresight with the scanning of the environment, and it is presented as an appropriate tool to achieve the objectives of this study, mainly to point out from the results not only its continuity, but also the feasibility of implementing a sustainability certification scheme for the dimension stones industry, by the agreement observed in the results, in the view of stakeholders. For the sustainability certification scheme a survey was conducted with key stakeholders of the dimension stones industry to identify their perceptions regarding to the initiative, which included general and specific topics in three themes: sustainability of the dimension stones industry in Brazil; challenges to the sustainability of the dimension stones industry, and deficiencies and omissions of current regulatory processes regarding these challenges; and the feasibility of a sustainability certification scheme for the dimension stones industry in Espírito Santo State and the participation of entities/bodies/agencies in this process. The results obtained with the development of this study allow us to conclude that, in the view of stakeholders of the dimension stone industry in Brazil, especially the Espírito Santo State, the formalization of companies in the industry, combined with a certification process has the potential to generate significant benefits for local and/or regional sustainable development, which coincides with other experiences presented in current literature. The results also showed that there is still too much to be studied before a sustainability certification scheme is implemented, but there are encouraging signs for the continuity of the work, as a significant part of stakeholders (society, government and industry entrepreneurs) responded favorably to this initiative the industry, even at the national level. In this sense, it is reinforced the importance of cooperation between industry, society and federal, state and local government throughout the process, in order to create a culture that enables the sustainability of this sector. Finally, the study shows that despite the existing challenges, proposals for continuity of the Foresight and achieving a sustainability certification scheme have the potential to improve the dimension stones industry by adopting criteria that not only consider the economic issues of the industry, but also to improve its social and environmental performance for effective sustainability of this industry.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo contribuir com a atividade de extração de rochas ornamentais, por meio de propostas com recomendações que possam indicar passos a serem seguidos (guidelines) para a sustentabilidade desse setor, utilizando como estudo de caso a região noroeste do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para isso são feitas propostas de planejamento em longo prazo por meio do Processo Prospectivo e, em mais curto prazo, por um esquema de certificação sustentável para a atividade, com vistas à sustentabilidade desse polo produtor, considerando sua importância e os problemas existentes. O Processo Prospectivo, feito mediante a utilização da abordagem inicial do Processo Prospectivo, com a varredura (scanning) do ambiente, e aplicado para a região noroeste do estado do Espírito Santo, apresentou-se como uma ferramenta adequada para atingir os objetivos do presente estudo, principalmente por apontar, a partir dos resultados, além da sua continuidade, também a viabilidade de implementar uma certificação de sustentabilidade para o setor de rochas ornamentais, pela concordância observada nos resultados obtidos, na visão dos stakeholders. Para a proposta de certificação sustentável foi feita uma pesquisa por meio de questionário com stakeholders chave da indústria de rochas ornamentais para identificar a percepção desses com relação à iniciativa, que incluiu tópicos gerais e específicos divididos em três temas principais: sustentabilidade da indústria de rochas ornamentais no Brasil; desafios para a sustentabilidade dessa indústria e deficiências e omissões da regulamentação vigente, relativa a esses desafios; e a viabilidade de um processo de certificação sustentável para a indústria de rochas ornamentais no Espírito Santo e a participação dos stakeholders e de seus órgãos nesse processo. Os resultados obtidos com o desenvolvimento do presente estudo permitem concluir que, na visão dos stakeholders da indústria de rochas ornamentais do Brasil, em especial na visão daqueles do estado de Espírito Santo, a formalização das empresas do setor, aliada a um processo de certificação, tem potencial para gerar benefícios significativos para o desenvolvimento local e/ou regional sustentável, o que coincide com outras experiências apresentadas na literatura vigente. Os resultados também mostraram que ainda há muito a ser estudado antes que uma certificação sustentável seja implementada, mas que há sinais encorajadores para a continuidade do trabalho, pois parte significativa dos stakeholders (sociedade, governo e empresários do setor) respondeu favoravelmente a essa iniciativa para o setor, até mesmo em âmbito nacional. Nesse sentido, é reforçada a importância da cooperação entre o setor, a sociedade e governo federal, estadual e municipal em todo o processo, de modo a se criar uma cultura que possibilite a sustentabilidade efetiva desse setor. Finalmente, o trabalho mostra que, apesar dos desafios existentes, as propostas de continuidade do Processo Prospectivo e de viabilização de um processo de certificação sustentável têm potencial para aprimorar a indústria de rochas ornamentais pela adoção de critérios, que visem não somente as questões de caráter econômico, como aquelas que melhorem a performance social e ambiental para a efetiva sustentabilidade dessa indústria. / This work aims to contribute with dimension stones industry by doing proposals and recommendations of guidelines to the sustainability of this industry, based on northwest region of Espirito Santo State as case study. Long term planning by applying the Foresight and of short term a Sustainability Certification Scheme are proposed in order to achieve the sustainability of the producer pole by considering its relevance and the existents problems. Foresight was applied for the northwest region using an initial approach of Foresight with the scanning of the environment, and it is presented as an appropriate tool to achieve the objectives of this study, mainly to point out from the results not only its continuity, but also the feasibility of implementing a sustainability certification scheme for the dimension stones industry, by the agreement observed in the results, in the view of stakeholders. For the sustainability certification scheme a survey was conducted with key stakeholders of the dimension stones industry to identify their perceptions regarding to the initiative, which included general and specific topics in three themes: sustainability of the dimension stones industry in Brazil; challenges to the sustainability of the dimension stones industry, and deficiencies and omissions of current regulatory processes regarding these challenges; and the feasibility of a sustainability certification scheme for the dimension stones industry in Espírito Santo State and the participation of entities/bodies/agencies in this process. The results obtained with the development of this study allow us to conclude that, in the view of stakeholders of the dimension stone industry in Brazil, especially the Espírito Santo State, the formalization of companies in the industry, combined with a certification process has the potential to generate significant benefits for local and/or regional sustainable development, which coincides with other experiences presented in current literature. The results also showed that there is still too much to be studied before a sustainability certification scheme is implemented, but there are encouraging signs for the continuity of the work, as a significant part of stakeholders (society, government and industry entrepreneurs) responded favorably to this initiative the industry, even at the national level. In this sense, it is reinforced the importance of cooperation between industry, society and federal, state and local government throughout the process, in order to create a culture that enables the sustainability of this sector. Finally, the study shows that despite the existing challenges, proposals for continuity of the Foresight and achieving a sustainability certification scheme have the potential to improve the dimension stones industry by adopting criteria that not only consider the economic issues of the industry, but also to improve its social and environmental performance for effective sustainability of this industry.

Discover how the future will be has traditionally been a task entrusted to wizards and soothsayers. However, men and women of science—through the prospective discipline and research in future scenarios—have also faced the problem from a particularly different way. The educational phenomenon—not being aware of this concern about tomorrow—also becomes the object of study to establish guidelines for relevant strategic planning and foresight. In the following paragraphs, we will address future studies related to higher education with a proposed approach to the ethodologies used and we will seek to identify the convergence of future scenarios. Finally, to offer a significant contribution, we will propose some general strategies that universities must consider anticipating future challenges and difficulties / Descubrir cómo será el porvenir ha sido una tarea tradicionalmente encargada a brujos y adivinos. Sin embargo, hombres y mujeres de ciencia, mediante la disciplina prospectiva y la investigación de escenarios futuros, también han encarado el problema desde un enfoque particularmente diferente. El fenómeno educativo —al no ser ajeno a esta preocupación por el mañana— se convierte en objeto de estudio con miras a establecer lineamientos para una pertinente planeación estratégica y prospectiva.En las próximas líneas, abordaremos los estudios de futuro vinculados a la educación superior proponiendo una aproximación a las metodologías empleadas,identificando algunas convergencias para los escenarios de los próximos años y proponiendo —como aporte significativo— algunas estrategias generales que las universidades deben considerar previendo retos y dificultades futuras

The aim of this dissertation was to explore whether preschoolers understand that preferences differ over time and between people. The first goal was to determine if 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds could appreciate that their future or “grown-up” preferences may differ from their current ones (self-future condition). This understanding was compared to children’s understanding of the preferences of a grown-up (adult-now condition), or the grown-up preferences of a same-aged peer (peer-future condition). Results from 3 experiments (N = 240) suggest that these types of reasoning develop substantially over the preschool years, and that children are generally proficient by 5 years of age. Results also indicate that thinking about one’s own future preferences is more difficult than thinking about the (future) preferences of others. The second goal of this dissertation was to explore the relations between reasoning about preferences and theory of mind (ToM) and executive function (EF) abilities. Correlational analyses revealed that children’s reasoning about their future preferences and those of others was associated with EF skills, but not with ToM. These findings provide a timely contribution to the expanding research on children’s future-oriented cognition. Implications for theories about perspective-taking abilities, more broadly, and future research are also discussed.

The capacity to mentally project the self into the future or, what has recently been termed “episodic foresight” is an emerging topic of study in developmental psychology. The aim of this dissertation was to review available research on this topic and explore its development in two groups of children: typically-developing preschoolers and children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This dissertation had two main goals. The first goal was to explore whether tasks thought to measure episodic foresight in children are related and whether, as has been hypothesized, they were related to theory of mind (ToM) and executive function (EF). Study 1 showed that after controlling for age and language ability, episodic foresight tasks were not intercorrelated, nor were they individually related to ToM or EF tasks. Importantly, however, an episodic foresight composite score was related to several EF tasks. Specifically, the results suggested a significant relation between episodic foresight and inhibitory control. The second goal of this dissertation was to explore the development of episodic foresight in children with ASD. Specifically, I tested whether children with ASD would perform more poorly on a series of episodic foresight tasks than a mental-age matched group of typically-developing children. Study 2 revealed significant group differences on several episodic foresight tasks, suggesting that children with ASD showed impairments in thinking about themselves in the future. These results are a timely contribution to the research on episodic foresight and will hopefully aid in the further development of tasks that adequately measure this important cognitive ability in children.

This short study concerns introduction of sketching by hand, in three first year classes in the Technology Programme at a Swedish Gymnasium. The purpose with the study has been the searching of ways to unfold 1) the student’s approach to sketching 2) their sketching skills 3) the development of a teacher’s didactic tools for sketching in the Technology Programme. As a background to the study lies a curiosity about how to strengthen individuals in very early stages in problem analysis, problem solving and innovation processes. This includes mechanisms of thinking, much based on ideas from the educational reformers John Dewey and Semënovic Vygotskij, where unwordly thinking and communication also counts as a part of thinking, and where there is a focus on long-term perspectives, on practical and collaborational work in a societal, equal and democratic context. Variation theory (Lo Mun Ling, 2014) has been used as a didactic tool. The study aims to put up a brief ground for the students, for further questions about sketching as a common tool in project teams. It has been conducted in one class per week, for four weeks. The empirical material consists of a survey, observations, the student’s sketches and three interviews. The results have come out as reflections and interpretations on the content of the four weeks. The study is an attempt to find and tie together different theoretical grounds with sketching, as a likely undervalued, practical activity for tech-students, in understanding complexities and processes for problem solving.

Os países, para continuarem competitivos, procuram aprimoramento contínuo da capacidade em Ciência, Tecnologia & Inovação (CT&I) num contexto de globalização mundial. Para isso, necessitam definir prioridades e formular políticas de CT&I. Uma das ações que podem contribuir para a melhoria da competitividade é a elaboração do Foresight Tecnológico, utilizado tanto para prever as conseqüências do uso dessas tecnologias para o meio ambiente e a sociedade, quanto para desenvolver formas de prevenir o seu impacto, visando conservar o meio ambiente e proporcionar melhorias sociais. Trata-se de uma pesquisa exploratória realizada por meio do estudo de caso, de levantamentos bibliográficos, obtenção de dados documentais e entrevistas com pessoas que participaram da elaboração de estudo foresight. Discorre sobre a teoria de foresight, o processo de elaboração do estudo, certas técnicas e métodos utilizados em alguns países em que foi realizado. Além disso, verifica o estágio em que o Brasil se encontra na elaboração de estudo foresight e, em profundidade, o estudo de caso Programa Brasileiro de Prospectiva Tecnológica Industrial, que foi coordenado pela Secretaria de Tecnologia Industrial (STI) em conjunto com a Secretaria de Desenvolvimento da Produção (SDP), do Ministério de Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior (MDIC). Esta pesquisa pretende entender como procedimentos adotados no processo de elaboração do estudo foresight condicionam sua efetividade como instrumento de formulação de políticas públicas para CT&I no contexto de desenvolvimento sustentável, a fim de contribuir para o avanço do conhecimento da administração nessa área. A pesquisa sugere um esquema para o processo de elaboração do estudo foresight, para que esta envolva os stakeholders e os comprometa com a implementação dos resultados, a fim de apoiar a formulação de políticas públicas. / In the globalize world, all countries that want to be competitive have to invest on Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I) defining priorities and formulating ST&I policies. In this context, the development of technologic foresight is a way to improve this competitive. Technology Foresight is a practice used to foresee the outcomes of these technologies to environment and society, to prevent the negative impacts and to improve the quality of life in general. This research is an exploratory research based on case study, bibliography surveys and interviews with people who have already participated in foresight studies process development. The content is about the foresight theory, the studies elaboration process, certain techniques and methods used in some countries. Besides, it also analyzes the Brazil situation on foresight studies development and it brings a deeper research into the case study of the Brazilian Program of Industrial Technology Prospective, which was coordinated by Industrial Technology Secretary in set with Production Development Secretary of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Commerce. This research aims to understand how the procedures used into the development process of foresight are determinant to its effectiveness as instrument to formulate S,T&I public policy in sustainable development, in order to contribute to the knowledge advance in management into this area. It also proposes a framework for the foresight study process development in which involves stakeholders and make them committed with the results of the study, in order to formulate ST&I public policies.

The aim of this thesis was to examine, describe and assess in detail the method, process, and outcome of the first national Turkish technology foresight study - Vizyon 2023 - and draw conclusions about its effect on the Turkish science, technology and innovation system. Technology foresight has gained widespread acceptance all over the world as a policy tool used in identifying future technologies, setting priorities, formulating science and technology policies and wiring up the national system of innovation. In this context, a review of the literature on technology foresight is undertaken and major concepts are established. The cases of the French and Hungarian technology foresights are examined in comparison to the Turkish technology foresight. Particular emphasis is given to describe the link to science and technology policy of the Vizyon 2023 technology foresight in order to assess its immediate and expected impacts. It is concluded that the Vizyon 2023 technology foresight was a carefully practiced study in line with current trends and knowledge, the linkage to policy was successful, but the result fell short in pointing to clear directions in terms of the implementation agenda. Furthermore, it is ascertained that the science and technology strategy formulated on the basis of the Vizyon 2023 Technology Foresight can only be successful, if implemented with the close coordination and collaboration of all actors of the national innovation system.