Autonomous and integrated passenger and freight transport (APFIT) is a promising approach to tackle both, traffic and last-mile-related issues such as environmental emissions, social and spatial conflicts or operational inefficiencies. By conducting an agent-based simulation, we shed light on this widely unexplored research topic and provide first indications regarding influential target figures of such a system in the rural area of Sarstedt, Germany. Our results show that larger fleets entail inefficiencies due to suboptimal utilization of monetary and material resources and increase traffic volume while higher amounts of unused vehicles may exacerbate spatial conflicts. Nevertheless, to fit the given demand within our study area, a comparatively large fleet of about 25 vehicles is necessary to provide reliable service, assuming maximum passenger waiting times of six minutes to the expense of higher standby times, rebalancing effort, and higher costs for vehicle acquisition and maintenance.

Tesis por compendio / [EN] Since its birth in the fifties, the maritime container has revolutionised freight international transport providing support to a global production system, marked by the industry offshoring looking for competitive advantages and the configuration of increasingly complex and global supply chains. Within this context, the container has gained a great importance becoming a basic logistic element in supply chains where it plays the role of a transport, production and distribution unit. The success of container is evident if we analyse the evolution of container port traffic, which has been growing at a pace of over 10 % surpassing 600 million TEU of traffic since 2012. The container is, therefore, a key element in global supply chains and container logistics is a field of work and study of enormous interest due to its impact in the efficiency of these supply chains, due to the cost incurred for the operating account of shipping companies and operators (cost which is transferred to the final user and has an impact in the price of the goods being transported), and due to the social and environmental cost associated to the externalities of transport derived from the management of the container fleet. Container logistics has to do with the efficient management of the container fleet, minimising the transport, warehousing and maintenance costs, and maximising the use of the equipment. In container logistics it is possible to categorise, generally, two different categories or levels depending on the geographical scope and the transport modes involved: The international level and the local or regional level. This thesis addresses container logistics at a local or regional level, insofar as in relation to the management of stock, transport and internal movements, trying to react and identify solutions to some of the problems currently facing the port-logistics sector. The research result allows, firstly, knowing in an integral and structured manner the complexity of maritime container logistics. Secondly, specific real problems are identified and addressed for its modelling and analysis that allows for contributing to the improvement of the current logistics system. The following specific problems are addressed: -Modal choice problems for the configuration of internal logistics corridors or chains for maritime container transport. -Problems locating networks of nodal infrastructures facilitating the logistics needs of maritime containers. -Problems related to the movements and management of empty maritime containers. The interest and the academic contribution of this thesis lies as much in the definition and modelling of the specific problems with a significant theoretical discussion, as the empirical application to a real environment and real situations. This has been possible due to the direct contact of the author with the port-logistics sector and the participation in many consultancy and research projects in the cluster of the port of Valencia and also at European and international level. The thesis is outlined as a collection of six scientific articles. The articles have been presented in the thesis in such a way as to follow a logical sequence and not in relation with the chronological order of their publication. / [ES] Desde su aparición en los años 50, el contenedor marítimo ha revoluciona-do el transporte internacional de mercancías dando soporte a un sistema global de producción, marcado por la multilocalización de las industrias en busca de ventajas competitivas y la configuración de cadenas de suministro cada vez más complejas y globales. En este contexto, el contenedor ha adquirido un gran protagonismo convirtiéndose en un elemento logístico básico en las cadenas de suministro en las que actúa como unidad de transporte, producción y distribución. El éxito del contenedor queda puesto de manifiesto al analizar la evolución del tráfico portuario de contenedores, que ha estado creciendo a ritmos superiores al 10 %, superando los 600 millones TEU desde 2012. El contenedor es, por tanto, un elemento clave de las cadenas de suministro globales y la logística del contenedor es un área de estudio y trabajo de enorme interés por el impacto que tiene en la eficiencia de dichas cadenas, por el coste que supone a navieras y operadores en sus cuentas de explotación (coste que se traslada al usuario final y repercute en el precio de las mercancías transportadas) y por el coste social y ambiental asociado a las externalidades del transporte derivadas de esta gestión de la flota de contenedores. La logística del contenedor tiene que ver con la gestión eficiente del parque de contenedores, minimizando los costes de transporte, almacenamiento y mantenimiento, y maximizando la utilización del equipo. En la logística del contenedor se pueden identificar, por lo general, dos categorías o niveles diferenciados en función del ámbito geográfico y de los modos de transporte implicados: El nivel internacional y el nivel local o regional. Este trabajo aborda la logística del contenedor a nivel regional o local, es decir, en lo relativo a la gestión del stock, transporte y movimientos interiores, tratando de dar respuesta y plantear soluciones a algunos de los problemas con los que se encuentra el sector logístico-portuario en la actualidad. El resultado de la investigación permite, en primer lugar, conocer de una forma integral y estructurada la complejidad de la logística del contenedor marítimo. En segundo lugar, se identifican y abordan problemas específicos reales para su modelización y análisis, que permiten contribuir a la mejora del sistema logístico actual. En concreto se abordan los siguientes problemas: -Problemas de elección modal en la configuración de las cadenas o corredores logísticos interiores en el transporte de contenedores marítimos. -Problemas de localización o vertebración de una red de infraestructuras nodales para atender las necesidades logísticas de los contenedores marítimos. -Problemas asociados a los movimientos en vacío y gestión de contenedores marítimos. El interés y contribución académica de este trabajo reside tanto en la definición y modelización de los problemas específicos con una profunda discusión teórica, como en la aplicación empírica a situaciones y entornos reales, cosa que ha sido posible gracias al contacto directo del autor con el sector logístico-portuario y su participación en numerosos proyectos de consulto-ría e investigación tanto en el clúster del Puerto de Valencia como a nivel europeo e internacional. El trabajo se plantea como una colección de seis artículos científicos. El orden en que están situados los artículos en la tesis permite mantener una secuencia lógica construida a posteriori y no según el orden cronológico en el que fueron publicados. / [CA] Des del seu naixement als anys 50, el contenidor marítim ha revolucionat el transport internacional de mercaderies donant suport a un sistema global de producció, marcat per la multilocalització de les indústries en busca d'avantatges competitives i la configuració de cadenes de subministrament cada vegada més complexes i globals. En aquest context, el contenidor ha adquirit un gran protagonisme convertintse en un element logístic bàsic en les cadenes de subministrament en les quals actua com a unitat de transport, producció i distribució. L'èxit del contenidor s'evidencia en analitzar l'evolució del tràfic portuari de contenidors, que ha estat creixent a ritmes superiors al 10 % superant els 600 milions TEU des de 2012. El contenidor és, per tant, un element clau de les cadenes subministrament globals i la logística del contenidor és un àrea d'estudi i treball d'enorme interès per l'impacte que té en l'eficiència d'aquestes cadenes, pel cost que suposa a navilieres i operadors en els seus comptes d'explotació (cost que es trasllada a l'usuari final i repercuteix en el preu de les mercaderies transportades) i pel cost social i ambiental associat a les externalitats del transport derivades d'aquesta gestió de la flota de contenidors. La logística del contenidor té a veure amb la gestió eficient del parc de contenidors, minimitzant els costos de transport, emmagatzematge i manteniment, i maximitzant la utilització de l'equip. En la logística del contenidor es poden identificar, en general, dues categories o nivells diferenciats en funció de l'àmbit geogràfic i de les modalitats de transport implicats: el nivell internacional i el nivell local o regional. Aquest treball aborda la logística del contenidor a nivell regional o local, és a dir, quant a la gestió de l'estoc, transport i moviments interiors, tractant de donar resposta i plantejar solucions a alguns dels problemes amb els quals es troba el sector logístic-portuari en l'actualitat. El resultat de la recerca permet, en primer lloc, conèixer d'una forma integral i estructurada la complexitat de la logística del contenidor marítim. En segon lloc, s'identifiquen i aborden problemes específics reals per a la seua modelització i anàlisi, que permeten contribuir a la millora del sistema logístic actual. En concret s'aborden els següents problemes: -Problemes d'elecció modal en la configuració de les cadenes o corredors logístics interiors en el transport de contenidors marítims. -Problemes de localització o vertebració d'una xarxa d'infraestructures nodals per a atendre les necessitats logístiques dels contenidors marítims. -Problemes associats als moviments en buit i gestió de contenidors marítims. L'interès i contribució acadèmica d'aquest treball resideix tant en la definició i modelització dels problemes específics amb una profunda discussió teòrica, com en l'aplicació empírica a situacions i entorns reals, cosa que ha sigut possible gràcies al contacte directe de l'autor amb el sector logístic-portuari i la seua participació en nombrosos projectes de consultoria i recerca tant en el clúster del Port de València com a nivell europeu i internacional. El treball es planteja com una col·lecció de sis articles científics. L'ordre en què estan situats els articles en la tesi permet mantenir una seqüència lògica construïda a posteriori i no segons l'ordre cronològic en el qual van ser publicats. / Furió Pruñonosa, S. (2016). Modelos y métodos avanzados para la logística del contenedor. Aplicación al Puerto de Valencia [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/63248 / Compendio

This thesis addresses integrated challenges within the global supply chain and intercontinental rail freight transport, establishing the foundation for a new research area. First, this thesis focuses on the development of unified SCOR-Rail Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for intercontinental rail freight transport, as well as initial analysis on Eurasian rail freight. It also proposes various rail supply chain strategies to differentiate rail services, including efficient, continuous replenishment, and responsive rail supply chain strategies that support market segmentation and service differentiation. The proposed Integrated Tactical Planning Method (ITPM) is a supply chain-oriented planning approach for intercontinental rail freight transport. It considers the intercontinental rail freight network's complexities, such as multiple border crossings and transshipments at border crossing terminals, the unique characteristics of different train lengths across different rail systems, as well as multiple stakeholders such as terminals, railway undertakings, infrastructure providers, and shippers and forwarders. ITPM offers optimization models (I-FSND and I-SSND) that simultaneously account for both the supply chain and rail system sides. Both models simulate the complexities of intercontinental rail freight operations. The I-FSND model calculates the train service frequency on each route during the planning period, whereas the I-SSND model considers the synchronization of each order at border-crossing terminals across different rail systems. Furthermore, both models include a rejection mechanism and consider transit time differences on the same arc for the main transit, with the I-SSND model determining the duration time of each order at terminals. In the I-FSND model, a weighted goal programming method optimizes resource allocation, balancing service quality, profit, total number of accepted containers through the network, and border crossing terminals' capacity deficiency. The potential capacity deficiencies—information is useful when making future investment decisions. The ITPM is a powerful tool for intercontinental rail freight planners, the proposed optimization models I-FSND and I-SSND ensure more efficient utilization of resources while simultaneously satisfying heterogeneous transport service requirements of the supply chain. Rail planners can employ the I-FSND model for network capacity analysis across various scenarios, especially when the specific timetable of train services is not a primary concern, while I-SSND model could be used to more operational analysis. Furthermore, ITPM is not only applicable to intercontinental rail freight, but also to rail freight transport networks with multiple border crossings, such as the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN). The initial application of these models in Eurasian rail freight shows promising potential for broader implementation in intercontinental rail freight transport, particularly in creating new business opportunities to meet the diverse transport demands of the supply chain.:1 Intercontinental rail freight transport 1 1.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1.1 Development of intercontinental rail freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1.2 Need for a supply chain-oriented planning method for intercontinental rail freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.2 Intercontinental rail freight planning problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2.1 Limitations of current rail planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2.2 Intercontinental rail freight transport in supply chain planning . . . . . . 9 1.2.3 Scientific gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.3 Main contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.4 Thesis outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.5 Collaborations in the thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2 Service quality assessment of intercontinental rail transport 20 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2 Existing research in international freight rail transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.1 Stakeholders and processes of international rail transport . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.2 International rail services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.2.3 Current performance measurement of rail transport . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.2.4 Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.3 Development of SCOR-Rail KPIs for international rail services . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.3.1 Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.3.2 Responsiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.3.3 Flexibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2.3.4 Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.3.5 Asset efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.4 Initial assessment of Eurasian rail transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.4.1 Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.4.2 Responsiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.4.3 Flexibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.4.4 Asset efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.4.5 Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 2.5 Improvement measures of current Eurasian rail transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 2.5.1 Service differentiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2.5.2 Priority rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3 Heterogeneous rail supply chain strategies 48 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3.2 Existing research on rail service differentiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 3.3 Development of railway supply chain strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 3.3.1 Efficient RSC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3.3.2 Continuous replenishment RSC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3.3.3 Responsive RSC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.4 International rail service differentiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 3.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 3.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 4 Integrated tactical planning method 62 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 4.2 Existing research on information integration in rail transport . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4.3 Information integration in international rail freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.3.1 Information quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.3.2 Information integration phases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.3.3 Information evolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4.4 Hierarchical information integration in rail planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 4.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 5 Integrated planning of intercontinental rail freight transport with I-FSND model 77 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 5.2 Literature review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.2.1 Basics of rail planning and SND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5.2.2 SND in freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5.2.3 Research gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 5.2.4 Our contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 5.3 Problem Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 5.4 Mathematical Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 5.4.1 Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 5.4.2 I-FSND model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 5.4.3 Weighted goal programming method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 5.5 Case study: Eurasian rail freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 5.5.1 Experimental setup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 5.5.2 Scenarios generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 5.6 Results and discussions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 5.6.1 Single goal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 5.6.2 Multiple goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 5.6.3 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 5.7 Conclusion and future directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 6 Scheduled service network design for intercontinental rail freight transport 109 6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 6.2 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 6.2.1 Intercontinental freight transport-Eurasian rail freight transport . . . . . 113 6.2.2 SSND in freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 6.2.3 Research gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 6.3 Mathematical modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 6.3.1 Problem description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 6.3.2 Generation of the time-space network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 6.3.3 Mathematical formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 6.4 Computational Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 6.4.1 Construction of test instances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 6.4.2 Synchronization of orders at border crossing terminals . . . . . . . . . . 127 6.4.3 Effects of differentiating train services during main transit . . . . . . . . 129 6.4.4 Effects of delay tolerance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 6.4.5 Impact of border crossing time of European borders . . . . . . . . . . . 134 6.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 6.6 Conclusion and future directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 7 Conclusion and future directions 140 7.1 Main conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 7.2 Recommendations for practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 7.3 Further Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Bibliography 148 Summary 168

<p>The rise of technologies and the Internet have provided opportunities to connect logistics demand and supply using the crowd. In this system, named crowd-shipping (CS), a requester doing the shipping selects a courier via a platform. In reality, the idea of CS has been explored by many firms over the last several years. However, there is a lack of fundamental understanding of the issues related to: (1) the markets that are likely to be influenced by CS; (2) the considerations that govern the success of this system; and the (3) the impacts of CS and its design.</p><p><br></p> <p>To address these issues, there is a need of understanding CS system's stakeholders, such as requesters' (i.e. senders') and potential couriers' (i.e. driver-partners') behaviors as well as operations and management of CS firms. This research will address these gaps by conducting a survey to understand driver-partners' behaviors and requesters' behaviors given the CS services availability in the logistics market. Then, pricing and compensation strategies are designed and modeled based on behavior rules of supply and demand generations as well as various CS market penetrations. As such, this research addresses the CS industry in a triad of supply, demand, and operations and management.</p><p><br></p> <p>This research uses advanced econometrics, statistics analysis, mixed integer optimization, and data science techniques to analyze data and generate insights. The contributions of this research are to identify the contributing factors that impact the emerging logistics service. This research also reveals factors that influence the current and future shipping behaviors of requesters, as well as influencing factors of the individuals' willingness to work as driver-partners. The integrated matching and routing models have been developed to examine different pricing and compensation strategies under several market penetration scenarios. `Individual' price and compensation have found to provide the highest profit for CS platform providers.</p><p><br></p> <p>This research provides meaningful knowledge for stakeholders, especially for the CS firms to develop business strategies. Several remarkable benefits that CS firms can obtain include: focusing on some specific population groups to recruit driver-partners (e.g. people with children, middle-aged people having lower incomes, or no car ownership); addressing certain market segments to promote CS services (e.g. tight-window delivery packages, peripheral products, or personal health and medicine items); implementing `individual' or `flatted' pricing and compensation strategies depending on the time of the day, the day of the week, or the market penetration; and improving platform features to incorporate requesters' and driver-partners' expectations.</p>

O presente estudo agrega os dados geoespaciais livres, cedidos pela prefeitura de São Paulo, IBGE, CNAE, RAIS, entre outros e particulares, cedidos pela empresa Maplink, com os recursos dos Sistemas de Informações Geográficas - SIG, para planejamento de Transportes. A megacidade de São Paulo com mais de dez milhões de habitantes tem milhares de estabelecimentos comerciais para atender a demanda dessa população, que precisa ser abastecidos. Os veículos de carga que abastecem, além de afetarem o trânsito e mobilidade urbana, emitem poluentes. O objetivo é hierarquizar as áreas da megacidade de São Paulo (Brasil) com características potenciais para alta concentração de poluentes decorrentes da circulação dos veículos de carga para abastecer os estabelecimentos comerciais. A metodologia correlaciona espacialmente os dois conjuntos de dados (localização de estabelecimentos comerciais e a circulação de veículos de transporte de cargas) utilizando ferramentas de análises espaciais, baseada em Kernel Density Estimator - KDE, a análise de multicritério, como a Analytic Hierarchy Process - AHP para avaliar como estes duas variáveis estão relacionadas, e também a lógica Fuzzy para calcular esses dados. Os resultados obtidos demonstra que as avenidas e rodovias do município de São Paulo possuem alta concentração de poluentes, sendo utilizadas como rotas para os veículos de carga que tanto fazem do município sua origem e/ou destino, as regiões que possuem alta concentração de poluentes atmosféricos são: Cerqueira César, Parque Dom Pedro II e Ibirapuera, com destaque também na Marginal Tietê e Marginal Pinheiros, além da zona leste (Itaquera e Itaim Paulista). / This study adds free geospatial data, granted by the city of São Paulo, IBGE, CNAE, RAIS, among others and individuals assigned by Maplink company with the capabilities of Geographic Information Systems - GIS for Transportation planning. The megacity of São Paulo with more than ten million inhabitants has thousands of shops to meet the needs of this population, which must be supplied. The cargo vehicles that supply, as well as affect the traffic and urban mobility, emit pollutants. The goal is to prioritize areas of the megacity of São Paulo (Brazil) with potential characteristics for high concentration of pollutants resulting from the movement of cargo vehicles to supply shops. The methodology spatially correlate the two sets of data (location of commercial establishments and the movement of cargo transport vehicles) using tools of spatial analysis based on Kernel Density Estimator - KDE, the multi-criteria analysis, as the Analytic Hierarchy Process - AHP to evaluate how these two variables are related, and also fuzzy logic to calculate this data. The results show that the avenues and highways of São Paulo have a high concentration of pollutants, being used as routes for freight vehicles that both make the city their origin and / or destination, the regions with high concentration of air pollutants they are: Cerqueira Cesar, Parque Dom Pedro II and Ibirapuera, highlighting also the Marginal Tiete and Pinheiros, besides the east side (Itaquera and Itaim Paulista).

The objective of this thesis is to study the sources of discrepancy between the actual traffic in motorways under concession schemes and the traffic forecast ex-ante. The demand forecast for a specific project is the main variable influencing its realization. From a public sector perspective, socio-economic evaluations are driven by demand forecasts, which gives the basis for choose and hierarchy public projects in order to maximise social welfare. From a private sector perspective, traffic forecasts are the base of financial evaluation and toll setting.Despite its importance and the numerous and important developments in the field, the differences of forecast and ex-post traffic are usually very high. Some recent studies show that differences as big as 20% are much more the rule than the exception.A huge amount of uncertainty is associated with the forecasting exercise. First because transport is a derived demand and depends on many exogenous variables, also uncertain; because modelling is and simplification exercise, implies many assumptions and rely on field data, many times incomplete or of low quality; moreover, modelling human (in this case users) behaviour is always a dangerous enterprise.Although these arguments could explain at least the larger part of errors associated with forecasts, one can wonder whether the agents implicated in the forecast would or could use this uncertainty strategically in their favour. In a competition for the field scheme (bids), the bidder may overestimate the demand in order to reduce the toll included in the bid. This strategic behaviour can introduce a high bias in forecasts. Also, overoptimistic (or overpessimistic) forecasters may introduce a bias in the forecast.We propose to focus in turn on the three main groups of agents involved in the demand forecast process. The forecasters, the project promoters and the users. Study all the issues related to them would be a too ambitious (or more concretely impossible) task. We then focus on some particular issues related to the modelling of the actors' behaviour in the context of the demand forecast for toll roads.Regarding the forecaster behaviour, we present the results of the first large sample survey on forecasters' perceptions and opinions about forecasting demand for transport projects, based on an on-line survey. We first describe the main characteristics of forecasters. We then describe the last forecast forecasters prepared. We turn to the models forecasters apply, the errors they declare on past forecasts and the main sources of errors according to them. We then describe the forecast environment in terms of pressure forecasters receive. These unique results provide a picture of the world of forecasters and forecasts, allowing for a better understanding of them. We turn then to the study of the optimism and overconfidence in transport forecasts. Optimism and overconfidence in general are recognized human traits. We analyze the overoptimistic bias by comparing the distribution of stated errors with actual errors found in literature; we also compare the own skilful of subjects in doing forecasts with studies showing self-evaluations of a common skill - driving. We finally propose a regression of the competence, quality and errors on the main forecasters' and projects' specific variables.Results show that the distribution of errors transport forecasters state has a smaller average magnitude and a smaller variance than those found in literature. Comparing forecasters perception of their own competence with the results found in literature about drivers skill self-evaluation, however, we could not find a significant difference, meaning that the forecasters' overconfidence is in line with what could be viewed as a normal human overconfidence level.The pressure for results forecasters receive and the strategic manipulation they affirm exist merit a special attention. They imply that while forecasters' behavioural biases may exist and should be take in account when evaluation forecasts, the project promoter may influence forecasts by pressuring the forecasters to produce results which better fit his expectancies.We then study the bidders' strategic behaviour in auctions for road concessions. We address three questions in turn. First, we investigate the overall effects of the winner's curse on bidding behaviour in such auctions. Second, we examine the effects of the winner's curse on contract auctions with differing levels of common-value components. Third, we investigate how the winner's curse affects bidding behaviour in such auctions when we account for the possibility for bidders to renegotiate. Using a unique, self-constructed, dataset of 49 worldwide road concessions, we show that the winner's curse effect is particularly strong in toll road concession contract auctions. Thus, we show that bidders bid less aggressively in toll road concession auctions when they expect more competition. We observe that this winner's curse effect is even larger for projects where the common uncertainty is greater. Moreover, we show that the winner's curse effect is weaker when the likelihood of renegotiation is higher. While the traditional implication would be that more competition is not always desirable when the winner's curse is particularly strong, we show that, in toll road concession contract auctions, more competition may be always desirable. Modelling aggregated users' behaviour, we study the long term traffic maturity. We argue that traffic maturity results from decreasing marginal utility of transport. The elasticity of individual mobility with respect to the revenue decreases after a certain level of mobility is reached. In order to find evidences of decreasing elasticity we analyse a cross-section time-series sample including 40 French motorways' sections. This analysis shows that decreasing elasticity can be observed in the long term. We then propose a decreasing function for the traffic elasticity with respect to the economic growth, which depends on the traffic level on the road. Although “unconditional” decreasing elasticities were already proposed in the literature, this is the first work, as far as we know, putting this idea in evidence and giving it a functional form. This model provides better interpretation of the coupling between traffic and economic growth, and a better long-term forecast. From the disaggregate perspective, we study the main individual modal choice variable, the value of time. The value of travel time savings is a fundamental concept in transport economics and its size strongly affects the socio-economic evaluation of transport schemes. Financial assessment of tolled roads rely upon the value of time as the main (or even the unique) willingness to pay measure. Values of time estimates, which primarily represent behavioural values, as then increasingly been used as measures of out-of-pocket money. In this setting, one of the main issues regarding the value of time is its distribution over the population. We apply the Logit, the Mixed Logit and the Bayesian Mixed Logit models to estimate the value of time in freight transport in France. Estimations with mixed logit faced many difficulties, as expected. These difficulties could be avoided using the Bayesian procedures, providing also the opportunity of properly integrating a priori beliefs. Results show that 1) using a single constant value of time, representative of an average, can lead to demand overestimation, 2) the estimated average value of time of freight transport in France is about 45 Euro, depending on the load/empty and hire/own account variables, which implies that 3) the standard value recommended in France should be reviewed upwards.

Thesis (DPhil (Logistics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / South Africa currently experiences the double jeopardy problem of catching up to global economic competitiveness whilst at the same time feeling the pressures of sustainability management spearheaded by a global agenda. Global sustainability is defined as growth that is shared without depleting natural resources or damaging the environment. Academic disciplines are challenged to make a contribution and economics as such should contribute by providing the lead and lag indicators for the planning and measurement of scarce resources usuage. This integrative view includes economic sub-disciplines, such as logistics. This integrative view is an acknowledged part of the economics discipline, except that the macro-economic context of some sub-disciplines, such as logistics, often receives less attention during the course of academic activities. The distribution of resources and outputs in the economy is a logistics controlled cross-cutting factor, but suffers from a lack of macro-economic perspective, and lead and lag orientated measurement. This state of the affairs is a historic backlog of logistics and its specific position within economics. During the primary economic era the world began to configure networks and markets, which became more pronounced and settled with the dawn and settling of the industrial era. Logistics then was a “given” and did not receive much thought even as industrial, market economies developed. Transport was regarded as an administered cost, i.e. inefficiencies in logistics systems were evenly distributed between competitors, not giving any specific entity an advantage. With the advent of global competition and the diminishing returns on other cost saving measures, companies began to collaborate and integrate logistics functions within value chains, but the administered part of transport costs failed to receive the attention it required. In this way, global competitors did begin to experience disadvantages on a national level as whole economies suffered from inefficiencies in logistics and specifically transport systems.

Thesis (MComm (Logistics))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / Although global changes like political security, depletion of natural resources, energy supply and global warming are affecting all continents; Africa struggle the most to cope with these changes. This is due to the many historical impediments that Africa still has to overcome. Examples of these impediments are the negative effects caused by civil wars, poverty, poor infrastructure and a lack of skills. Providing reliable, effective and efficient infrastructure underpins all attempts to facilitate trade, grow the economy and reduce poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA transportation related infrastructure is limited and generally in a poor condition. This poor state of transport infrastructure impedes SSA's development. However, it is not only the state of the infrastructure that challenges Africa - complicated customs and administrative procedures and inefficiencies when goods are handled at terminals and transferred from one transport mode to another also impede its potential for economic growth. In spite of these limitations, the SSA economy has been growing. As many as 28 countries (out of 48) in SSA recorded improvements in growth in 2006 and 2007. This growth was underpinned by improvement in macro-economic management in many countries, and a strong global demand for key African export commodities (sustaining high export prices, especially for crude oil, metals and minerals). Greater flows of capital to Africa, debt relief and increasing trade with the developing Asia have also helped increase resources and lift growth across SSA. The strong economic growth in the region also reflects the institutional improvements, structural reforms, and more rigorous economic policies that have started to bear fruit in many countries.

The main aim of this thesis was to provide a comprehensive overview of the international transport of commodities with regard to its nature, time and cost efficiency. As a commodity suitable for examination were selected cut flowers. Based on the analysis of modes of transport was partial objective to propose directions for transport of cut flowers in the air and road transport with regard to the nature of commodities, time and cost efficiency. Another objective was to map the centers of production and consumption of cut flowers. Under this objective has been paid great attention to the center of international trade in cut flowers Netherlands and trading on local exchanges.

The relocation of logistic companies’ from the inner centres to the logistic platforms significantly affects both the supply chain management and the urban sustainability development. Recently the concept of city logistics and intermodality has received a significant attention from both academics and decision makers. City logistics play a pivotal role to ensure the liveability of urban areas but, in parallel, urban freight transport also has a significant effect on the quality of life in the urban settings. Optimization of urban freight transportation have an important input in the context of sustainability and liveability of cities and urban areas reducing traffic congestion, decreasing road accidents, alleviating CO2 emissions and noise impacts. The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the relocation of a case logistics company from the city centre to a suburban area. To do this, a wide range of literature reviews pertaining the influence of peripheral logistics platform on the city sustainability were investigated. It seems that there are not well-defined models which can make a comprehensive and quantitative assessment in the context of sustainability for the relocation of business premises. Further investigation was done by conducting a case study on DHL, field observation of traffic flow. Based on all the collected information from the relevant sources, a mixed methods research was applied including a qualitative approach and a quantitative approach. A systematic approach was therefore developed in the context of sustainable development which can be used as an assessment tool for the major factors that enlighten the decision makers to consider the relocation of the logistics companies. A systematic approach was developed by this thesis which facilitates the assessment of key factors that impact the relocation decision in the context of all the three sustainable aspects: economic, social and environmental development. These impacts represent traffic congestion, time and distance of transportation, emission, cost optimization and transport mobility.