The question in the study is to what extent the Swedish Real estate sector index acts as a follower of larger and broader stock indexes, and to what extent the index follows the asset values owned by the real estate companies in the asset market? The study is interesting for those trying to understand the development of share values in the Swedish real estate market as well as for those interesting in the “efficient market hypothesis”. The study makes an econometric analysis of the relationship between OMXS30, OMXS Real Estate PI, and the asset value of properties owned by Swedish real estate companies. Indexes are compared with Vector Autoregression (VAR) lag models, tested for dependence of GDP, the repo rent, and inflation. A Granger causality test is also performed. Despite discussed problems with reliability of some tests, the study finds that OMXS30 Granger cause OMX Real Estate PI. The study also finds that, during the period studied, OMXS30 and OMX Real Estate PI develop differently in the initial period but later form a similar path of performance. The asset values of the companies in the real estate market are more strongly correlated with OMXS30 than with their own sector index, OMXS Real Estate PI. No significant effects are found from GDP, the repo rent or inflation on OMXS30 or OMXS Real Estate PI. This may be seen as surprising but follows results from earlier studies.

有鑑於美國次貸危機引發的金融風暴席捲全球，造成了大型金融機構倒閉、全球經濟衰退以及投資人的鉅額虧損，政府與投資人開始重視風險的控管，學術界及實務界也建構出各種能夠衡量金融風險的指標，期能達到防患未然的功效。本研究將Billio, Getmansky, Lo, and Pelizzon (2011)使用的主成分分析(Principal Components Analysis)與Granger因果關係檢定(Granger Causality Test)兩種統計方法應用至臺灣股市，證實臺灣各產業指數的連動性高，尤其在金融不穩定的情況下共動性會大增，使危機容易在體系內擴散。而在金融危機時期，食品工業和紡織纖維產業是其他產業最主要的影響者，金融保險業、觀光產業及貿易百貨業則最容易受到其他產業的影響。

由於開放總體經濟理論，在在著許多爭論，往往因其所強調重點不同而有不同的結論 。這些爭論最後須藉助實證之證據來支持某種理論，以了解經濟變數間可能的影響途 徑。 然由迴歸所觀察到兩變數間有強烈相關，並不能代表此二變數間存在有因果關係。故 本文乃擬利用Granger 因果關係的概念與時間序列之統計方法，在儘可能避免作太多 先驗理論之限制下，使觀察值之統計資料能充分表現其一般之情況，來探討台灣重要 經濟變數間可能的影響途徑與因果關係。 本文共分五章： 第一章「緒論」：就有關國際金融理論作一概要性探討。 第二章「因果關係檢定」：介紹因果關係之概念、基本假設檢定方法與檢定結果之解 釋。 第三章「模型選擇之方法」：介紹ＶＡＲ模型的區塊排除性檢定，客觀貝氏ＶＡＲ模 型，Hsiao 之ＶＡＲ模型認定，與多元時間序列ＶＡＲＭＡ模型。 第四章「台灣之實證分析」：乃就第三章所論之模型，以台灣有關重要變數作實證上 之分析。 第五章「結論與建議」：對全文作綜合性總結與建議。

論文摘要 本論文由兩篇獨立的文章所構成，第一篇文章從個體角度出發，探討臺灣產業出口與成長之間的關聯性；第二篇文章則以總體的角度，分析世界各主要國家經濟成長的型態(包括出口偏向型的成長與進口偏向型的成長)對該國貿易條件的影響。 長久以來，出口與產出之間的相互影響向來是廣受重視的議題。在國際經濟領域中，多數研究均專注於兩者間理論之建立，關於實證方面的探討並不多見，而個體角度來探討產業出口與成長之間的文獻更是稀少，以臺灣產業出口與成長之間因果關係為對象的研究則付之闕如。臺灣的經濟成就向來被歸功於出口擴張政策的成功，但出口導向的影響範圍究竟擴及多少產業的效果仍不明朗，因此第一篇文章關心的重點，在於探討對我國的產業而言出口擴張是否是個有效的政策？而究竟出口導向和產出導向哪一種政策的效果較好，也是本文所關心的目標。 第二篇文章討論成長型態對貿易條件的影響。由於出口偏向型的成長會使本國願意以更多出口財來換取進口財，將會使本國出口財的國際價格相對下降，進而惡化本國的貿易條件，改善外國的貿易條件；反之，在進口偏向型成長的情況下，出口財的減少則會使本國貿易條件改善，外國貿易條件惡化。是以一國的經濟成長對該國貿易條件的影響，將取決於其生產可能曲線外移的方向。本文嘗試以八個工業化國家和七個開發中國家為對象，在加入成長偏向政策、物價、匯率、所得移轉、對外投資、貿易平衡、貿易開放程度等因素的考慮下，來驗證成長型態對其貿易條件的影響效果是否符合理論的規範。 / The purpose of first paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between exports and domestic production in 22 Taiwan main industries, using time series data for the period 1982:01~2002:07. Different from the previous literatures, this paper examines the relations by taking into account industrial data because we are wondering whether the causal links between exports and outputs still sustain in individual industry, and either export promotion or production-led policies are more effective for industrial production. Hence, three related topics will be discussed: to recognize the incidence of export promotion policy in Taiwan industries, to explore either export promotion or production-led policies is more effective for industrial production, and to detect whether all exportation-oriented industries would simultaneously support export promotion hypothesis. The findings of the econometric analysis employing Granger causality test do not have enough evidence to support that the proportion of exports to production is a necessary condition for generating export promotion. Nevertheless, this study suggests that production makes great influence on exports in Taiwan individual industry but the effects of exports on production is not so prevailing as we thought before. Therefore, the influence of production to exports in Taiwan industry is more prevalent than that of exports to outputs. The purpose of the second paper is to examine the impacts of growth types on terms of trade by making a comparison between 8 industrial countries and 7 developing countries (involving 3 NICs countries). This paper finds that the theories seems not be supported because evidence shows the occurrence of positive effects of export-biased growth to terms of trade are more prevalent than negative ones. Moreover, the empirical results of negative incidence shown by import-biased growth come into conflict with theories, and the impacts of import-biased growth on terms of trade are indefinite. In addition, most results reveals that export-biased growth and import-biased growth policies in industrial countries are invalid, and most results in NICs and developing countries are ambiguous while export-biased growth or import-biased growth policies are adopted. Furthermore, the empirical results reveal that income transferring have great or opposite influence in NICs and developing countries, and trade openness is advantageous to NICs and developing countries but is disadvantageous to developed ones.

台灣房地產景氣動向季報的發佈不但為台灣房地產市場該季景氣狀況提供一客觀參考依據，且對未來房地產市場景氣走向進行預測分析，提供房地產景氣相關資訊予社會各界參考。在對未來房地產景氣進行預測方面，是採用領先指標作為一參考標的，雖然領先指標就其特性而言為一預測未來景氣動向的參考資訊，但卻無法明確指出其所預測的期間為多長，本研究所欲探討的部分即在於使用房地產景氣綜合指標之領先指標於預測房地產景氣上可以預測幾季之後的房地產景氣狀況，並探討房地產景氣預測的準確度。另外對廠商景氣預測的部分進行一致性的檢視，再從而比較廠商景氣認知與同時、領先指標之間的關係。希望藉此能釐清房地產景氣季報內的訊息內涵。 本研究透過因果關係檢定，找出領先指標領先同時指標三季的關係，確定可以透過領先指標來預測三季之後的景氣變化情形。再利用平均絕對百分比誤差分析使用領先指標作為預測工具的準確度，經過計算求得平均絕對百分比誤差為4.57%，可以看出使用領先指標作為預測工具相當合適。在廠商本身預測景氣動向上，本研究發現廠商預期符合調適預期理論，且對未來的預期有較為樂觀的趨勢；經過本研究統計整理發現廠商對房地產景氣變動的認知與同時指標的變動之間的一致性並不理想，此有可能是因為市場上各項房地產資訊充斥，廠商並不全然以同時指標的變動來判斷房地產景氣的變動。惟經過前後期的比較，可以發現一致性的上升與不一致性的下降，表示兩者之間認知的一致性有逐漸提升的趨勢。 / The atmosphere of the real estate industry in Taiwan was upswing gradually in the past few decades, and its market information was definitely occupied an significant role and many people started to put their focus on it. In fact, the industry forecast which can be found from those seasonal report was a prediction only that is not accurate, i.e. those projections were based on the current market information only. Therefore, how to interpret and digest the number from those reports is the crucial issue for the reader to think and to consider. This study is trying to find out the time-lags between leading index and coincident index and the accuracy of the cycle forecasting system. The Granger causality test is widely used to examine the time-lags between the leading index and the coincident index. From the result of this study, we can found that there has a 3-season time-gap embedded in, and this is an obvious difference indeed. In addition, the forecasted index of the leading indicator i.e. The MAPE is in 4.57% sharp. Thus, we dare to judge that the result of this study is absolutely accurate with 100% confidence.

封閉型基金的掛牌買賣價格，與其投資標的淨資產價值（NAV, net asset value）間，總是存在一定程度的差距，且幾乎為10%~20%的折價現象，被視為財務學上的一種異常（anomaly）。早期研究學者們由經濟理性的角度解釋此種現象，認為是基金管理的績效表現、投資標的流動性或是稅制上的差異等等角度來解釋此一現象，但並沒有獲得一致的結論。 近期以來，有學者嘗試從行為財務學的角度，認為封閉型基金的折溢價現象及其幅度的變化，是由於投資人情緒（investor sentiment）的波動所造成。除了傳統的迴歸模式，更有不少學者以嚴謹的計量方式分析，例如財務時間序列的許多技巧。本研究即以時間序列之單根檢定（unit root test）、共整合現象檢定（co-integration test）及Granger因果關係檢定（Granger Causality test）等等方式，分析封閉型基金折溢價現象是否由投資人情緒所造成，及其兩者間是否有共整合現象。 雖然已有部分文獻探討類似議題，但跨國比較分析通常僅限於英、美兩國，且英、美兩國市場連動程度太高，可能影響分析結果的正確性；除此之外，樣本分析期間亦通常不超過十年。本研究以1991-2005年英國掛牌之封閉型基金為研究樣本，並包含投資標的為日本的封閉型基金，進行英國、日本之間的跨國性比較；不但有更足夠的樣本時間長度，亦能驗證是否不同跨國分析亦會有相同結論。 共整合現象檢定及Granger因果關係檢定大致支持行為財務學的角度。但英國、日本跨國比較的結果，似乎並不完全等同於前述英、美跨國比較的結果。建議後續可從掛牌國與投資標的區域連動程度較低的封閉型基金作為研究方向。 / The closed-end funds discounts have been an interesting phenomenon for a long period. Some theories based on economic rationale try to solve the puzzle but fail to get consistent conclusions. Recently some theories based on behavioral finance, such as the investor sentiment hypothesis, have been proposed to solve this puzzle. This study examines the investor sentiment hypothesis based on various time-series tests and finds some interesting results. Briefly, our conclusions are as follows: 1. The discounts can vary widely between funds and seem to be persistent in our sample period. 2. The local market indices are cointegrated with the domestic closed-end funds discounts and the information is flowed from the market to the closed-end funds, which support the investor sentiment hypothesis. 3. The causality relationship between the foreign closed-end funds and the local indices is not obvious. Based on this, the market segmentation hypothesis seems to hold in our sample, which indicates that investing in the foreign funds provide investors with the benefit of diversification. For future researches, we suggest that more the foreign funds should be included in the sample and the classification of the degree of investor sentiment and the categories of funds can also be improved.

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

This thesis examines the output-variability relationship and causal relationships among the inflation, the output growth and their uncertainties for the Central and Eastern European region during the period of time that covers the economic crisis of 2008. We apply the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model with the constant conditional correlation covariance matrix to obtain conditional variances that proxy the two uncertainties and use Granger causality test to determine the causal effects among four variables. We come up with a number of interesting results. First, we did not find statistical evidence neither for the inflation-output variability relationship nor for the Phillips curve. Second, we uncovered support for the positive causal effect of the inflation on its uncertainty and negative causal effect for the reverse direction. Additionally, we also found some support for the indirect negative causal effect of the inflation on the output growth. These results support the policy of low and stable inflation in the countries. Finally, we showed that crisis has a significant impact on the results, changing the behaviour of conditional variances and causal effects among the variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

This paper focuses on analysing and modelling inflation and its dynamics in Czech Republic applying a special kind of econometric models. Firstly economic theory of inflation is mentioned - fundamental terms, measuring methods of inflation, the way Czech national bank is monitoring the inflation and obviously a short summary of historical evolution of inflation in Czech economy. In the second part of this paper two econometric concepts of modelling time series are introduced - vector autoregression models (VAR models) and volatility models, concretely ARCH and GARCH models. In connection with the VAR models, Granger causality, impulse response functions, cointegration and error correction models are described. The empirical part includes application of selected models on real time series of chosen macroeconomic indicators. The estimation outputs are interpreted and forecasts are implemented. The quality of chosen econometric models for modelling inflation in Czech Republic is discussed.

This thesis investigates if Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investments can be considered as an independent asset class. As ESG and responsible investing has increased substantially in recent years, responsible investments have entered the portfolios with other asset classes too. Therefore, there is a need in studying ESG investment properties with other financial asset classes. By collecting daily price data from October 2007 to December 2018, we research the directionalities between ESG, ethical, conventional, commodities and currency. Initially, we employed a MODWT, multiscale investment horizon wavelet analysis transformation of the data. The decomposed wavelet data is then applied in pairwise linear and non-linear Granger causality estimations to study the directionality relationships dependent on investment horizon. Additionally, econometric filtering processes have been employed to study the effects of volatility on directionality relationships. The results mainly suggest significant directionality relationships between ESG and the other asset classes. On the medium-term investment horizon, almost all estimations indicate strict bidirectionality. Thus, on the medium-term, ESG can be said to be integrated with the other asset classes. For the long-term horizon, most relationships are still predominantly bidirectional between ESG and all other asset classes. The biggest differences are found on the short-term horizon, with no directionality found between ESG and commodities that cannot be explained by volatility. Furthermore, most directionality relationships also disappear when controlling for the volatility transmission between ESG and currency on the short-term horizon. Thus, our findings suggest significantly more integration between ESG and ethical and conventional as bidirectionality overwhelmingly prevails regardless of investment horizon. As previous research has found similarities between ethical and conventional as well as ESG having similar characteristics to commodities as conventional and ethical, we suggest that ESG should be considered as being integrated and having strong similarities with other equities. Thus, it should be treated as being part of the conventional equity asset class. Deviations from bidirectionality could be caused by ESG variable specific heterogeneity. However, despite our rejection of ESG as an independent asset class, it still carries significant potential as it excludes firms with climate-harming practices, thereby helping in combating climate-related as well as social and governance issues the world is facing.