The master thesis analyzes the current situation in the Russian gas industry and outlines the outlook for 2020 with regard to the interaction of internal and external factors. Efforts were made to determine the extent of global financial crisis on Russian gas industry. Master thesis also focuses on the question whether the Russian economy will be deepen on revenues from oil and natural gas export in 2020 more than at the beginning of 21st century. The aim of this thesis is to highlight the close link between economic and political interests of Russia in energy cooperation.

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Russia has supplied natural gas to Europe reliably for nearly four decades. But recent changes in Russian behaviour and policy, combined with EU-driven regulatory changes, have created a state of flux, and considerable concern in Europe. I address the question of possible Russian hegemony in European gas relations, and ask whether Moscow’s ambitions represent a security threat to Europe. Positioning these questions within the context of a European natural gas regime (NGR), I take a historical-comparitive approach, dividing the evolution of the NGR into three phases. Phase one moves from the origin of the cross-border trade in Europe in the 1960s to the 1991 Soviet dissolution; phase two explores the turbulent post-Soviet decade to 1999; and phase three addresses the era of Vladimir Putin from 2000 to 2010. For each phase, I assess hegemony by drawing on regime concepts offered by Alt et al, which I modify for application to the idiosyncratic realm of natural gas. The evidence suggests that Germany, not Russia, is more appropriately considered hegemonic, having acquired gas influence in the 1970s that it has not relinquished. However, there are also indications that a German-Russian ‘co-hegemony’ could be developing, characterized by disproportionate Russian influence in Central Europe, giving rise to possible tension between EU values, governance and responsibilities on one hand, and Russian influence associated with co-hegemony on the other. Despite this, I suggest that Russian aspirations constitute no imminent security threat to Europe – European gas actors are well entrenched, and Moscow faces strong disincentives to threaten its European buyers. ‘Co-hegemony’ could challenge the regime’s integrity, but evidence to date suggests that the EU and Gazprom prefer patience and compromise to brinkmanship, and that actor interest in maintaining the flow of gas suggests greater optimism than dread. ‘Security’ is therefore not as sound as it would be if Russia were an EU member or if it had ratified the Energy Charter Treaty, but emerging dynamics do not suggest imminent peril either. I conclude by discussing possible directions for future research. / A regime-based exploration of Euro-Russian gas dynamics, with attention to the new profile of Russia in the relationship and the limits of its coercive ability.

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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis explores the causes of Russian foreign policy towards Georgia. It argues that the Russian Federation continues to pursue a policy which weakens the sovereignty of the Caucasus. The main priority of this thesis is to identify why the Russian Federation seems to be pursuing a set of policies that economically and politically weaken the sovereignty of Georgia. Therefore, this thesis examines the forces and factors of Russian domestic politics that drive Russian national interests towards the Caucasus. The analysis focuses on one particular issue-area: the role of the economic elite in shaping Russia's domestic and foreign policies vis-a-vis the state in the electricity sector. In focusing on the energy policies of the Russian Federation, this thesis reveals the negative consequences for Georgia's sovereignty that result from a strong Russian influence in the region. This thesis analyzes how Russian national interests towards Georgia challenge the latter to establish autonomous decisionmaking with regard to its foreign policy and to exercise its own authority through an exclusive competence in internal affairs of the state. In conclusion, this thesis offers policy prescriptions on how Georgia might best preserve its sovereignty with respect to the Russian Federation in terms of energy dependency. / Civilian, Ministry of Defense, Georgia

Increasingly growing consumption of natural gas all around the world requires development of new transporting equipment and optimization of existing pipelines and gas pumping facilities. As a special case, Russian gas pumping system has the longest pipes with large diameter, which carry great amounts of natural gas. So, as reconstruction and modernization needs large investments, a need of more effective and low cost tool appeared. As a result diagnostics became the most wide-spread method for lifecycle assessment, and lifecycle extension for gas pumping units and pipelines.One of the most effective method for diagnostics of gas pumping units is parametric diagnostics. It is based on evaluation of measurement of several termo-gas dynamic parameters of gas pumping units, such as pressures, temperatures and rotational speed of turbines and compressors.In my work I developed and examined a special case of parametric diagnostics – methodic for evaluation of technical state and output parameters for gas pumping unit “Ural-16”. My work contains detailed analysis of various defects, classified by different GPU’s systems. The results of this analysis are later used in development of the methodic for calculation of output parameters for gas pumping unit.GPU is an extremely complex object for diagnostics. Around 200 combinations of Gas Turbine engines with centrifugal superchargers, different operational conditions and other aspects require development of separate methodic almost for each gas pumping unit type.Development of each methodic is a complex work which requires gathering of all possible parametric and statistical data for the examined gas pumping unit. Also parameters of compressed gas are measured. Thus as a result a number of equations are formed which finally allow to calculate such parameters as efficiency, fuel gas consumption and technical state coefficient which couldn’t be measured directly by existing measuring equipment installed on the gas compressor station.

本文研究重點為探討跨國公司對在地國之影響，分析與比較俄羅斯天然氣工業集團(Gazprom Group)在烏克蘭與白俄羅斯兩國之議價關係。 Gazprom為全球壟斷性天然氣公司，在2006年冬季俄、烏天然氣談判破局而發生歐洲大規模斷氣事件後，其對在地國的特殊影響力才逐漸成為各界熱烈討論之議題。一般而言，在全球化下的跨國公司研究多半聚焦在跨國公司的經濟影響力，然而Gazprom在母國政府的支持下，在全球市場上除了經濟面外，還對其他國家發揮著政治面向上的影響力，特別是在烏克蘭與白俄羅斯的例子上格外明顯。學界目前對於Gazprom的主流評論認為Gazprom為母國外交工具，然而追溯Gazprom、在地國與俄羅斯三方之天然氣關係背景，發現Gazprom在烏、白兩國之作為不能單純將Gazprom設想為「母國外交工具」，Gazprom與兩國之天然氣衝突是俄羅斯政府「外交目標」與Gazprom「商業獲利」考量下之綜合結果；以Gazprom為主體方向下思考，對Gazprom來說，俄羅斯政府是企業對在地國的「產業政策影響工具」，更正確地來說，Gazprom與俄羅斯政府是屬於互相為用的關係。 為破除既定「外交工具」思考方向，本文採議價能力衰減模型(Obsolescing Bargaining Model)作為基礎研究架構，以Gazprom為研究主體，突破以往傳統上單層議價模型中只論跨國公司與在地國之議價過程，加入母國政府與在地國政府之議價關係，分析俄與烏、白兩國政府議價結果與Gazprom影響力之關聯，以貼合本文案例實際研究需要。 / This paper examines the impact of multinational corporations (MNC) on host country, analyzes and compares the two cases in Ukraine and Belarus of bargaining relations between Gazprom Group and host governments. Gazprom is a global natural gas monopoly, after the breakup of gas negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and cut-off of Russian gas to Europe, its special impact on host country has attracted people of all the different circles to discuss it. In most cases of globalization researches on MNC’s role, people concentrate on the economic impact of MNC; however, with the support from home government, Gazprom has shown not only its economic power, but also its political impact on host country, especially on Ukraine and Belarus. Till now, the academic circle has seen Gazprom as an instrument of Russian foreign policy, but after tracing back the historical background of gas relations between Gazprom, host country, and Russia, we can figure out Gazprom can’t be simply regarded as the policy instrument, in fact, the Russia-Ukraine and Russia-Belarus gas disputes between are the complex of Russian foreign policy consideration and Gazprom commercial actions. For Gazprom, Russian government is an instrument as well to influence host country’s policy in gas sector. More correctly, Gazprom and Russian government use each other for their own purposes. To break through the existing “instrument of foreign policy” research direction, this paper uses obsolescing bargaining model as the basic framework, regarding Gazprom as the main subject, changing the traditional one-tier bargaining model into two-tier, including bargaining relationship between home government and host government, then analyzes the correlation between the governmental bargaining results and Gazprom’s bargaining power for the practical case study needs.

<p>The two Eastern enlargements in 2004 and 2007 marked a new chapter in the EU’s history, since it was the first time that the Union turned to enlarge eastwards. This thesis examines the borderline problem that arose with Article 49 of the <em>Maastricht</em> <em>Treaty on the European Union</em>, which gave the right to <em>any European country</em> that respects the principles of: liberty, democracy, human and fundamental rights, and the rule of law, to apply for membership in the EU.</p><p> </p><p>This thesis approaches the EU’s borderline problem by taking on three case studies consisting of Hungary, Lithuania, and Ukraine, for the purpose of analyzing the Eastern enlargement and Ukraine’s potentials of becoming a member of the EU. The reason for doing so is to compare Ukraine’s potentials of becoming a member in the EU with two Eastern states that, like Ukraine, have been involved with the Soviet Union, and that despite their degree of involvement, have been successfully integrated in the EU.</p><p> </p><p>As the EU has turned to enlarge eastwards, it gradually pushes its borderline with every enlargement, closer to Russian territory. Hence, it is necessary to investigate how potential integration of a country like Ukraine can affect the EU’s relations with Russia. The crucial aspect of the current relations between the EU and Russia is the interdependence of energy, where Ukraine is as a strategically important country, since it currently serves as a corridor between East (Russia) and West (EU). This thesis therefore shows that the problematic of potential integration of Ukraine goes much deeper than that of a geographical matter, and therefore touches other problem areas related to domestic political instability in Ukraine, and Russian political influence through its gas supplies.</p><p> </p><p>This thesis approaches the EU’s borderline problem from a foreign political perspective by investigating Ukraine’s potentials of becoming a member of the EU and suggesting, by the assistance of Westberg’s theoretical framework of integration theories, a third generation of integration theories to be needed in order to meet the problematic of the enlargement towards East. The thesis further gives recommendations to how the EU could deal with its borderline problem by answering three research questions related to the enlargement problematic.</p> / <p>De två östutvidgningarna 2004 och 2007 utgjorde ett nytt kapitel i EU:s historia då det var första gången som Unionen påbörjade utvidgningen mot Öst. Denna uppsats undersöker gränsproblematiken som uppkom i samband med Artikel 49 i <em>Maastricht</em> <em>Fördraget om Europeiska Unionen</em>, vilken gav rätten till varje Europeiskt land som respekterar principerna om: frihet, demokrati, mänskliga och fundamentala rättigheter, samt rättsstat, att ansöka om medlemskap i EU.</p><p> </p><p>Denna uppsats närmar sig EU:s gränsproblem genom att ta sig an tre fallstudier bestående av Ungern, Litauen, och Ukraina, i syfte att analysera östutvidgningen och Ukrainas potential att bli medlem i EU ur ett utrikespolitiskt perspektiv. Anledningen till detta är att jämföra Ukrainas potential att bli medlem i EU med två öststater som, i likhet med Ukraina, har varit involverade i Sovjet Unionen, men som oberoende graden av involvering med Ryssland, framgångsrikt blivit integrerade i EU.</p><p> </p><p>Eftersom EU påbörjat utvidgningen mot Öst så förskjuts EU:s gräns gradvis, med varje östutvidgning, nära ryskt territorium. Därmed är det nödvändigt att utreda hur potentiell integrering av ett land som Ukraina kan påverka EU:s relationer med Ryssland. Den avgörande aspekten när det gäller relationerna mellan EU och Ryssland, är det ömsesidiga beroendet kring energi, där Ukraina utgör ett strategiskt viktigt land, eftersom det för närvarande verkar som en korridor mellan Öst (Ryssland) och Väst (EU). Denna uppsats visar att problematiken kring potentiell integrering av Ukraina rör problemområden bortom geografisk natur, så som inhemskt politisk instabilitet i Ukraina, samt Rysslands politiska inflytande genom energiförsörjning till Europa.</p><p> </p><p>Denna uppsats närmar sig EU:s gränsproblem från ett utrikespolitiskt perspektiv genom att utreda Ukrainas potentiella medlemskap i EU. Den föreslår, med hjälp av Westbergs integrationsteoretiska ramverk, att en tredje generation av integrationsteorier är nödvändig för att analysera problematiken kring utvidgningen mot Öst. Uppsatsen ger rekommendationer till hur EU kan hantera sitt gränsproblem genom att svara på tre frågeställningar gällande utvidgningsproblematiken.</p>

The two Eastern enlargements in 2004 and 2007 marked a new chapter in the EU’s history, since it was the first time that the Union turned to enlarge eastwards. This thesis examines the borderline problem that arose with Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty on the European Union, which gave the right to any European country that respects the principles of: liberty, democracy, human and fundamental rights, and the rule of law, to apply for membership in the EU.   This thesis approaches the EU’s borderline problem by taking on three case studies consisting of Hungary, Lithuania, and Ukraine, for the purpose of analyzing the Eastern enlargement and Ukraine’s potentials of becoming a member of the EU. The reason for doing so is to compare Ukraine’s potentials of becoming a member in the EU with two Eastern states that, like Ukraine, have been involved with the Soviet Union, and that despite their degree of involvement, have been successfully integrated in the EU.   As the EU has turned to enlarge eastwards, it gradually pushes its borderline with every enlargement, closer to Russian territory. Hence, it is necessary to investigate how potential integration of a country like Ukraine can affect the EU’s relations with Russia. The crucial aspect of the current relations between the EU and Russia is the interdependence of energy, where Ukraine is as a strategically important country, since it currently serves as a corridor between East (Russia) and West (EU). This thesis therefore shows that the problematic of potential integration of Ukraine goes much deeper than that of a geographical matter, and therefore touches other problem areas related to domestic political instability in Ukraine, and Russian political influence through its gas supplies.   This thesis approaches the EU’s borderline problem from a foreign political perspective by investigating Ukraine’s potentials of becoming a member of the EU and suggesting, by the assistance of Westberg’s theoretical framework of integration theories, a third generation of integration theories to be needed in order to meet the problematic of the enlargement towards East. The thesis further gives recommendations to how the EU could deal with its borderline problem by answering three research questions related to the enlargement problematic. / De två östutvidgningarna 2004 och 2007 utgjorde ett nytt kapitel i EU:s historia då det var första gången som Unionen påbörjade utvidgningen mot Öst. Denna uppsats undersöker gränsproblematiken som uppkom i samband med Artikel 49 i Maastricht Fördraget om Europeiska Unionen, vilken gav rätten till varje Europeiskt land som respekterar principerna om: frihet, demokrati, mänskliga och fundamentala rättigheter, samt rättsstat, att ansöka om medlemskap i EU.   Denna uppsats närmar sig EU:s gränsproblem genom att ta sig an tre fallstudier bestående av Ungern, Litauen, och Ukraina, i syfte att analysera östutvidgningen och Ukrainas potential att bli medlem i EU ur ett utrikespolitiskt perspektiv. Anledningen till detta är att jämföra Ukrainas potential att bli medlem i EU med två öststater som, i likhet med Ukraina, har varit involverade i Sovjet Unionen, men som oberoende graden av involvering med Ryssland, framgångsrikt blivit integrerade i EU.   Eftersom EU påbörjat utvidgningen mot Öst så förskjuts EU:s gräns gradvis, med varje östutvidgning, nära ryskt territorium. Därmed är det nödvändigt att utreda hur potentiell integrering av ett land som Ukraina kan påverka EU:s relationer med Ryssland. Den avgörande aspekten när det gäller relationerna mellan EU och Ryssland, är det ömsesidiga beroendet kring energi, där Ukraina utgör ett strategiskt viktigt land, eftersom det för närvarande verkar som en korridor mellan Öst (Ryssland) och Väst (EU). Denna uppsats visar att problematiken kring potentiell integrering av Ukraina rör problemområden bortom geografisk natur, så som inhemskt politisk instabilitet i Ukraina, samt Rysslands politiska inflytande genom energiförsörjning till Europa.   Denna uppsats närmar sig EU:s gränsproblem från ett utrikespolitiskt perspektiv genom att utreda Ukrainas potentiella medlemskap i EU. Den föreslår, med hjälp av Westbergs integrationsteoretiska ramverk, att en tredje generation av integrationsteorier är nödvändig för att analysera problematiken kring utvidgningen mot Öst. Uppsatsen ger rekommendationer till hur EU kan hantera sitt gränsproblem genom att svara på tre frågeställningar gällande utvidgningsproblematiken.

La thèse traite des questions énergétiques et géopolitiques relatives à deux États centre-eurasiatiques, l’Azerbaïdjan et le Turkménistan. Au premier niveau d’analyse, la thèse se concentre sur la place de l’Azerbaïdjan et du Turkménistan dans les rivalités de pouvoirs et les rapports de force régionaux. Elle met en évidence les deux types de compétitions qui existent autour des hydrocarbures de l’Azerbaïdjan et du Turkménistan. Premièrement, il s’agit de la compétition géopolitique qui oppose la Russie, acteur régional à deux acteurs extrarégionaux, les États-Unis et l’Union Européenne. Deuxièmement, il s’agit de la compétition commerciale qui existe entre les sociétés énergétiques, d’une part et d’une autre part, des tensions qui émergent entre les premières et les pouvoirs politiques de leurs pays d’origine. Au second niveau d’analyse, la thèse se focalise sur le rôle de l’Azerbaïdjan et du Turkménistan dans les compétitions régionales. Elle s’intéresse à la façon dont les deux États utilisent leurs ressources énergétiques, leurs positions géographiques et l’environnement géopolitique pour promouvoir leurs intérêts de politique étrangère. La thèse explore cette situation par le prisme du Nouveau Grand Jeu. Ce concept y est employé pour souligner les antagonismes existants entre les puissances régionales et extrarégionales au sujet du transport des hydrocarbures de l’Azerbaïdjan et du Turkménistan. La chronologie de la thèse s’étend sur la période comprise entre le moment de la chute de l’URSS et le présent. Cette période est structurée en deux étapes comprenant les années 1991-2006 et 2006-2013 qui sont désignées comme l’âge du pétrole et respectivement, l’âge du gaz. / This dissertation focuses on the energy and geopolitical issues of two Central-Eurasian countries, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. At the first level of analysis, the dissertation looks at the place of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in the great power rivalries in Central Eurasia. It emphasizes the existence of two types of competition over the energy resources of these two post-soviet countries. Firstly, it analyzes the geopolitical competition among regional and extra-regional actors, Russia, the United States and the European Union. Secondarily, the dissertation emphasizes the commercial competition among major international energy companies. It also identifies the existing tensions between these multinational actors and the political authorities in their home countries. At the second level of analysis, the dissertation is focused on the role played by Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in the geopolitical and commercial rivalries. The dissertation analyzes the way that the two countries use their energy resources, geographical positions and sensitive geopolitical context in order to promote and defend their foreign policy interests. The dissertation looks at this complex situation through the lens of the New Great Game. This concept is used with a view to underlining the antagonism between regional and extra-regional powers regarding the oil and gas export routes of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. In terms of chronology, the dissertation covers the period from the collapse of the USSR until the present day. This period is divided into two so-called epochs: the Age of Oil (1991-2006) and the Age of Gas (2006-present day).