Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Globalization provoked in financial markets by means stock exchanges an interchange among the markets over the world. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship of the ten major main economic index of the world represented in New York (DJIA, S&P500 e Nasdaq), Tokyo (NIKKEI 225), London (FSTE 100), São Paulo (IBOV), Shanghai (SSE180), Paris (CAC-40), Frankfurt (DAX-30) and Buenos Aires (Merval) and looking for its co-integration, to demonstrate the behavior of these indexes and the long run equilibrium, from January of 2010 to March of 2011. To investigate the equilibrium and the long rum behavior the error correction model was used jointly with co-integration test and impulse response based on Cholesky decomposition. The results of this study show that the index of stock markets has long term equilibrium, and American markets, Argentina and English showed a strong influence over other markets. With this research we can infer that a relationship exists between the stock markets under study, confirming that the economy in a country can influence the others. In this sense, the contribution of this study, given this range of discussions involving the interconnection of economies with respect to trades made on the stock exchanges, was to show the relationships and influences in the world. / A internacionalização somada à abertura dos mercados financeiros transformou as economias antes fechadas em economias abertas, provocou um intercâmbio entre as economias mundiais por meio das bolsas de valores. O objetivo deste estudo é examinar a relação entre os dez principais índices econômicos do mundo, sendo eles: Nova York (DJIA, S&P500 e Nasdaq), Tóquio (Nikkei 225), Londres (FSTE 100), São Paulo (IBOV), Shangai (SSE180), Paris (CAC), Frankfurt (DAX-30) e Bueno Aires (Merval), por meio da análise de co-integrações para demonstrar o comportamento desses índices e seus equilíbrios no período de janeiro de 2010 a março de 2011. Para investigar e verificar o comportamento em longo prazo, foi utilizado o modelo de correção de erros e teste de impulso-resposta baseado na decomposição de Cholesky. Os resultados deste estudo mostram que existe equilíbrio em longo prazo entre os índices do mercado de ações. Os mercados americano, argentino e inglês mostraram forte influência sobre os demais mercados. Com esta pesquisa, verifica-se que existe uma relação entre os mercados de ações estudados, confirmando que a economia de um país influencia as demais. A contribuição deste estudo é verificar a assertiva das discussões atuais sobre a dependência das economias mundiais com as negociações por meio da bolsa de valores.

This essay examines the relationship between exchange rate volatility, estimated using a GARCH model, and level of trade for Sweden and Finland. The data used was collected from Refinitive Eikon Datastream with monthly observations for the time period January 2005 - December 2022. The obtained results indicate that the volatility of the Swedish Krona and Euro positively increases the level of trade for Sweden respectively Finland according to the ARDL model. However, while examining different time perspectives the conclusions resulted in inconclusiveness for the countries and perspectives. The ARDL bounds test for Sweden corresponded with inconclusive results regarding a possible positive long term relationship between SEKs exchange rate volatility and level of trade. Furthermore, the Granger causality test did not state a short term relationship between the two variables for Sweden nor did it state a reversed relationship. On the other hand, for Finland, the ARDL bounds test and Granger causality test denied both a long term and short term positive relationship between the EURs exchange rate volatility and level of trade for Finland. However, for Finland a reversed Granger causality test was shown indicating that the level of trade has an impact on the volatility of the EURs exchange rate.

Esta tese examina o problema de detecção de conectividade entre séries temporais no sentido de Granger no caso em que a natureza não linear das interações não permite sua determinação por meio de modelos auto-regressivos lineares vetoriais. Mostra-se que é possível realizar esta detecção com auxílio dos chamados métodos de Kernel, que se tornaram populares em aprendizado por máquina (\'machine learning\') já que tais métodos permitem definir formas generalizadas de teste de Granger, coerência parcial direcionada e função de transferência direcionada. Usando simulações, mostram-se alguns exemplos de detecção nos quais fica também evidente que resultados assintóticos deduzidos originalmente para estimadores lineares podem ser generalizados de modo análogo, mostrando-se válidos no presente contexto kernelizado. / This work examines the connectivity detection problem between time series in the Granger sense when the nonlinear nature of interactions determination is impossible via linear vector autoregressive models, but is, nonetheless, feasible with the aid of the so-called Kernel methods that are popular in machine learning. The kernelization approach allows defining generalised versions for Granger tests, partial directed coherence and directed transfer function, which the simulation of some examples shows that the asymptotic detection results originally deducted for linear estimators, can also be employed under kernelization if suitably adapted.

Esta tese examina o problema de detecção de conectividade entre séries temporais no sentido de Granger no caso em que a natureza não linear das interações não permite sua determinação por meio de modelos auto-regressivos lineares vetoriais. Mostra-se que é possível realizar esta detecção com auxílio dos chamados métodos de Kernel, que se tornaram populares em aprendizado por máquina (\'machine learning\') já que tais métodos permitem definir formas generalizadas de teste de Granger, coerência parcial direcionada e função de transferência direcionada. Usando simulações, mostram-se alguns exemplos de detecção nos quais fica também evidente que resultados assintóticos deduzidos originalmente para estimadores lineares podem ser generalizados de modo análogo, mostrando-se válidos no presente contexto kernelizado. / This work examines the connectivity detection problem between time series in the Granger sense when the nonlinear nature of interactions determination is impossible via linear vector autoregressive models, but is, nonetheless, feasible with the aid of the so-called Kernel methods that are popular in machine learning. The kernelization approach allows defining generalised versions for Granger tests, partial directed coherence and directed transfer function, which the simulation of some examples shows that the asymptotic detection results originally deducted for linear estimators, can also be employed under kernelization if suitably adapted.

In this study, linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamics, including return to return and volume to volume relationships, between warrants and their underlying stocks in Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSEC). Results of previous studies are mixed and they only focus on linear relationship between the two markets. Here we take nonlinear relationship into consideration to assist in investigating what the direction of information flow is. We use intraday five-minute high frequency data and the result tells that, overall, for both return to return and volume to volume relations, there is bidirectional but asymmetry linear causality and weak unidirectional nonlinear causality from stock to warrant market between these two markets. Combining the linear and nonlinear results we conclude that the direction of information flow is mainly from stock market to warrant market.

The main aim of this thesis is to discover a suitable instant of time for the Czech Republic to join European Monetary Union. I am analyzing dependence between monetary policies of the Czech National Bank (CNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB) themselves as well as in relation to essential Czech macroeconomic indicators. My observation is focused on interest rate policies represented by operative interest rates, on monetary policies represented by indices of nominal effective exchange rates and on convergence monitoring. The analytical instruments I used in the thesis are correlation analyses, linear trends, the Granger causality test and the Impulse-Reaction test. Besides, my thesis examines fulfillment of the Convergence (Maastricht) criteria in the Czech Republic and other central European countries. This thesis also examines impact of the European monetary policy on some Eurozone member countries.

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been a popular topic in recent studies, with a considerable amount of literature conducted, although there still is no consensus regarding the relationship. Few studies have analysed the nuclear energy growth nexus with greenhouse gas emissions, and none have used the same method, data, and sample period. Therefore, there are still gaps in the literature regarding the Energy Growth Nexus, and this study provides a unique insight into the Swedish nuclear dilemma.   The purpose of this paper is to study the causal relationship between economic growth and nuclear energy consumption, and the causality between greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear energy consumption, in Sweden. The results of which are used to discuss the future consequences a continued shutdown of Sweden’s nuclear power could have. Seven EU nations and two non-EU nations are included to be able to make comparisons to Sweden. This paper is based on a method of time series analysis by conducting Ordinary Least Squares-regressions in combination with Granger causality tests.    Our results indicate that nuclear power granger cause growth in Belgium and the United Kingdom. Additionally, this study finds a bidirectional granger causality between greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear energy in the USA. The causal relationship between nuclear energy, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden is still unclear. However, the Swedish energy market is facing multiple challenges including global warming, increased energy demand, and a transition towards a completely renewable energy mix. The role of nuclear power in the Swedish energy mix is still unclear. It is therefore the authors belief that a decision regarding the future of the Swedish energy supply is needed. / Förhållandet mellan energikonsumtion och ekonomisk tillväxt har varit ett populärt ämne i nutida forskning, detta då en avsevärd mängd litteratur har författats på ämnet, dock har forskningen ännu inte funnit konsensus gällande det påstådda förhållandet. Få studier har emellertid analyserat energi-tillväxt sambandet med växthusgaser, inga av dessa studier har använt samma metod, data och tidsperiod. Med grund i detta finns det ändock ett tomrum i forskningen och litteraturen gällande energi-tillväxt sambandet och denna studie tillhandahåller en särskild insikt i det svenska kärnkraftsdilemmat.    Syftet med denna uppsats har varit att studera det kausala förhållandet mellan ekonomisk tillväxt och kärnkraftskonsumtion, samt kausaliteten mellan utsläpp från växthusgaser och ekonomisk tillväxt, i Sverige. Resultaten av denna uppsats har använts för att diskutera och analysera framtida konsekvenser av en fortsatt kärnkraftsnedstängning i Sverige. Sju EU-nationer samt två länder utanför EU har inkluderats för att kunna genomföra jämförelser med Sverige. Denna uppsats är baserad på en metod av tidsserieanalys som regression kallad Minsta Kvadratregressioner i kombination med Granger kausalitets-tester.   Uppsatsens resultat indikerar att kärnkraft Granger-kauserar tillväxt i Belgien och Storbritannien. Studien finner även en dubbelriktad Granger-kausalitet mellan växthusgasutsläpp och kärnkraft i USA. Det kausala sambandet mellan kärnkraft, ekonomisk tillväxt och växthusgasutsläpp i Sverige är fortsatt otydligt. Den svenska energimarknaden står emellertid inför flera utmaningar som främst inkluderar global uppvärmning, ökande efterfrågan på energi samt en pågående övergång till en helt förnybar energimix. Rollen kärnkraft kommer ha i den svenska energimixen är fortfarande oklar. Det är därför författarnas uppfattning att ett beslut angående hur det framtida energiutbudet ska se ut måste tas.