封閉型基金的掛牌買賣價格，與其投資標的淨資產價值（NAV, net asset value）間，總是存在一定程度的差距，且幾乎為10%~20%的折價現象，被視為財務學上的一種異常（anomaly）。早期研究學者們由經濟理性的角度解釋此種現象，認為是基金管理的績效表現、投資標的流動性或是稅制上的差異等等角度來解釋此一現象，但並沒有獲得一致的結論。 近期以來，有學者嘗試從行為財務學的角度，認為封閉型基金的折溢價現象及其幅度的變化，是由於投資人情緒（investor sentiment）的波動所造成。除了傳統的迴歸模式，更有不少學者以嚴謹的計量方式分析，例如財務時間序列的許多技巧。本研究即以時間序列之單根檢定（unit root test）、共整合現象檢定（co-integration test）及Granger因果關係檢定（Granger Causality test）等等方式，分析封閉型基金折溢價現象是否由投資人情緒所造成，及其兩者間是否有共整合現象。 雖然已有部分文獻探討類似議題，但跨國比較分析通常僅限於英、美兩國，且英、美兩國市場連動程度太高，可能影響分析結果的正確性；除此之外，樣本分析期間亦通常不超過十年。本研究以1991-2005年英國掛牌之封閉型基金為研究樣本，並包含投資標的為日本的封閉型基金，進行英國、日本之間的跨國性比較；不但有更足夠的樣本時間長度，亦能驗證是否不同跨國分析亦會有相同結論。 共整合現象檢定及Granger因果關係檢定大致支持行為財務學的角度。但英國、日本跨國比較的結果，似乎並不完全等同於前述英、美跨國比較的結果。建議後續可從掛牌國與投資標的區域連動程度較低的封閉型基金作為研究方向。 / The closed-end funds discounts have been an interesting phenomenon for a long period. Some theories based on economic rationale try to solve the puzzle but fail to get consistent conclusions. Recently some theories based on behavioral finance, such as the investor sentiment hypothesis, have been proposed to solve this puzzle. This study examines the investor sentiment hypothesis based on various time-series tests and finds some interesting results. Briefly, our conclusions are as follows: 1. The discounts can vary widely between funds and seem to be persistent in our sample period. 2. The local market indices are cointegrated with the domestic closed-end funds discounts and the information is flowed from the market to the closed-end funds, which support the investor sentiment hypothesis. 3. The causality relationship between the foreign closed-end funds and the local indices is not obvious. Based on this, the market segmentation hypothesis seems to hold in our sample, which indicates that investing in the foreign funds provide investors with the benefit of diversification. For future researches, we suggest that more the foreign funds should be included in the sample and the classification of the degree of investor sentiment and the categories of funds can also be improved.

No description available.

One of the goals of the economic, social and territorial cohesion is to reduce regional disparities between member states of the European Union. For this purpose the structural funds and the Cohesion Fund were established(among other things). The theoretical part of this thesis presents the issue of regional disparities and ways how to measure them. In view of the lack of consistent definition of this concept, there are number of measurement and evaluation methods. Furthermore, the work focuses on the implementation of cohesion policy and ways of measurement of their impact on development and growth of regions. The practical part of this thesis presents, evaluates and compares the regional disparities between the regions of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic via selected methods and assesses the impact of the financial support provided from the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund in the programming period 2007 - 2013 on economic growth of regions in the Czech and Slovak Republics. Following indicators are included: gross domestic product, unemployment rate, gross fixed capital formation and the rate of economic activity. The influence of the subsidy on the economic growth of regions is validated through the panel data analysis, namely a panel model with fixed effects, and Granger causality test. First, we investigated the impact of this support on the economic performance of regions where it is verified whether there is a relationship between economic performance of NUTS III regions in the Czech and Slovak Republics, characterized by gross domestic product and the unemployment rate, and the amount of the subsidy. Furthermore, it is verified whether the amount of subsidy depends on the level of regional gross domestic product. Dissertation contributes to the discussion about the impact of support from EU funds in the Czech and Slovak Republics, focusing on the regional level, and answers the question of reducing regional disparities using the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund.

The dissertation analyzes the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Economic Growth by extension and economic development of the regions of the Czech Republic (CZ) in 1998 -- 2011. Statistical data empirically study determined motivation of investors to locate in economically strong regions. Following the analysis of statistical data, available resources and a field survey, whose output includes three case studies of specific Foreign Investments in the Czech Republic, the analysis examines whether the arrival of a significant foreign direct investor in the region significantly influenced selected characteristics of economic performance, or other selected areas in region (social, environmental, transport etc.). Moreover, in the context of econometric analysis to test the tightness of the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth using Pearson's coefficient and characteristics of variability. The causal effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth (and vice versa) is analyzed using Granger causality test. The conclusion gives an assessment of the significance of Foreign Direct Investment in the regions of the Czech Republic together with the identification of significant effects brought by investments.

This study will be investigating the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates with the OMX30 stock return expressed in percentage, as well as the effect that the interest rates have on the stock return. The data used in this study has been collected from the dataprogram Datastream with monthly observations from January 2003 until December 2022 resulting in 240 different variables within all three factors over a period of 20 years. While performing OLS estimation, the result estimated by using R-studio shows a negative correlation between the interest rates and the percentage return of OMX30. Furthermore, the Granger causality test shows that the short-term interest rate does have an impact on the market whilst the long-term interest rate does not have any direct effect on the stock market in Sweden.

This paper follows Ghysels, Gourieroux, and Jasiak (1998), examines the causal relation between price and volume in Taiwan Futures Market. I use high frequency intraday data of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index in Taiwan Futures Exchange; and analyze the causality between returns and volume series, which are transformed into Markov chain, with Granger’s causal tests. I analyze the data with two different time category, trading time and calendar time. In our research we find out that Taiwan futures market has a bi-directional causality between price and volume in trading time analysis, as to the calendar time analysis, only price to volume unidirectional causality exists. Unlike the unidirectional causal relation that Ghysels, Gourieroux, and Jasiak (1998) observed in French security market.

本研究針對七個國家包括：美國、加拿大、英國、法國、日本、香港、與澳洲。檢驗各國主成分為REITs商品在內的不動產證券指數，對於該國的消費者物價指數與國際原油價格是否具有正向的通貨膨脹避險效果。並比較各國的普通股價指數對該國的消費者物價指數與國際原油價格的通貨膨脹避險效果。本研究首先檢驗各國不動產證券指數/普通股價指數之月增率與消費者物價指數/原油價格之月增率之間是否具有正相關性。並將消費者物價指數/國際原油價格之月增率以HP濾波分解成永久性部分與暫時性部分，以迴歸估計消費者物價指數/國際原油價格之月增率的永久性與暫時性部分對於不動產證券指數/普通股價指數之月增率是否有正向的解釋能力。並以Granger因果關係檢定通貨膨脹像消費者物價指數或原油價格的月增率是否會Granger影響不動產價格的月增率。最後在進行單根檢定確認各數列皆為I(1)數列之後，檢驗不動產證券指數/普通股價指數與消費者物價指數/國際原油價格是否存在共整合關係，亦即代表是否具有長期的均衡狀態。 結果發現，幾乎所有國家不動產證券指數的月增率不管是對物價指數的月增率或原油價格的月增率的相關係數大多為無相關，在美國、加拿大、與澳洲甚至有些微的負相關，沒有支持通貨膨脹避險的證據。而在迴歸分析的結果，在加拿大、英國、法國，與日本，物價指數月增率的永久性部分對不動產證券指數月增率有負向影響；在美國與香港則是物價指數月增率的暫時性部分對不動產證券指數月增率有負向影響。至於原油價格月增率的暫時性部分則在美國、法國、與澳洲找到對不動產證券指數存在負向影響的證據。其他國家則無法找到支持物價指數月增率或原油價格月增率的永久性或暫時性部分對不動產證券指數月增率具有正向影響。此外Grnager因果關係檢定中，只有美國的消費者物價指數月增率Granger影響不動產證券指數月增率。 而在假設無時間趨勢的共整合檢定之中，所有國家皆有顯著證據支持不動產證券指數與該國物價指數存在共整合關係，但若假設具有時間趨勢，只有加拿大，英國，日本與香港具顯著證據支持共整合關係的存在。而不動產證券指數與原油價格的共整合關係，不論有無時間趨勢，只有在加拿大、日本與澳洲這三個國家找到共整合關係存在的證據。 而普通股股價指數與消費者物價指數或原油價格實證結果顯示，相關係數檢定與不動產證券指數檢定結果相似，大多為無相關；只有美國、法國、與澳洲有些微負相關存在。迴歸分析中，物價指數月增率的永久性部分在加拿大、法國、與日本對普通股價指數月增率有負向影響；暫時性部分則在美國與澳洲對普通股價指數月增率有負向影響。原油價格月增率的暫時性部分在美國與法國對普通股股價指數存在負向影響的證據。而Grnager因果關係檢定中，在較多國家找到顯著證據支持原油價格月增率Granger影響不動產證券指數月增率。共整合檢定中，若不考慮時間趨勢，所有國家的股價指數均對物價指數存在共整合關係，但若考慮時間趨勢，則只有日本與香港有共整合現象；至於股價指數與原油價格的共整合檢定，不論有無時間趨勢，只有在日本、香港與澳洲找到些微共整合關係存在的證據。 整體而言，並無顯著證據存在支持不動產證券指數的報酬會隨著通貨膨脹的增加而增加；或是通貨膨脹的增加可以解釋不動產證券指數的報酬。然而不動產證券指數與消費者物價指數之間的確存在共整合關係，代表長期之下，兩者會往均衡方向調整，具有部分通貨膨脹避險能力。而普通股價指數與不動產證券指數的結果相同，但在檢設具有時間趨勢的共整合檢定上，不動產證券指數在四個國家存在共整合關係，普通股價指數則只有在兩個國家找到共整合存在的證據。不動產證券指數長期而言較普通股價指數具有較好的通貨膨脹避險效果。

本篇主要為原物料指數與總體經濟物價間動態關聯性的研究。由於近年來糧食價格高漲，本研究選取CRB現貨指數（Commodity Research Bureau）、CCI期貨指數（Continuous Commodity Index），與CRB農產品指數為原物料指數以觀察原物料價格對總體面物價影響的程度；研究期間為2001年10月至2011年3月；總經物價指標選擇生產者物價指數（PPI）、消費者物價指數（CPI）、再加上國內生產毛額（GDP）；選取的國家為美國、臺灣與中國。本研究以Johansen共整合、向量自我迴歸模型、向量誤差修正模型、Granger因果關係檢定及衝擊反應分析等方法，探討三項原物料指數與總體經濟指標的互動關係。 研究結果顯示，原物料指數與總體指標之間的長期均衡關係不明顯。因果檢定顯示，CCI指數在因果檢定上領先CRB指數與CRB農產品指數；除了美國的GDP之外，CCI指數也領先各項總體經濟指標，但不論是CRB現貨指數或CRB農產品指數，對總經物價指標的領先-落後關係都不明顯，表示在CCI指數為較佳的預測指標。由衝擊反應分析的結果顯示，除了有共整合關係的變數間相互影響為長期性之外，受影響的物價指標僅在短期內會受到原物料價格變動的影響：總體物價指標面對原物料價格波動的反應約3期之後反應便逐漸消失，顯示原物料價格與總體物價指數之間的短期失衡期間並不長。 / This paper investigates the relationship between the commodity indexes and macroeconomic price indexes. Due to the sharp increase of food price in recent years, we add CRB index (Commodity Research Bureau), CCI index (Continuous Commodity Index), and CRB foodstuffs index in the research to see the magnitude of commodity price indexes to macroeconomic price indexes. This paper selects United State, Taiwan and China as samples and manages to find out the relationship of commodity indexes and macroeconomic price indexes by applying monthly data from October 2001 to March 2011. Macroeconomic price indexes are PPI (Producer Price Index), CPI( Consumer Price Index) and plus GDP Index. This paper tries to get the answer by applying Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Autoregression Model(VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger causality test and Impulse Response Analysis. The result does not show obvious long-term relationship between commodity price indexes and macroeconomic price indexes; and Granger causality test exhibits that CCI index takes the lead in the change of time. But we do not get consistent result between CRB index, CRB foodstuffs index and macroeconomic price indexes in Granger causality test which means commodity spot indexes do not necessarily lead in the change of time. This result implies that CCI index a better indicator in forecasting. According to Impulse Response Analysis, macroeconomic price indexes are influenced by commodity index only in a short period of time and this result tells us that the disequilibrium between commodity indexes and macroeconomic price indexes will not last long.

本篇探討在2010年4月16日滬深300股指期貨正式上市到2012年9月18日止的連續近月每日收盤日資料，進行區域內金融期貨市場連動關係的研究，試圖發現兩岸三地之股價指數期貨市場在亞太地區的金融主導地位，以作為國內外投資者在區域內的投資決策參考。 實證結果顯示，從共整合及向量誤差修正模型檢定發現，兩岸三地股指期貨具有長期均衡及短期的互動關係，因此可以視此三地為單一區域市場。在Granger因果檢定上，台股指數期貨雖無法預測恆生指數期貨，但仍明顯領先滬深300股指期貨且程度大於恆生指數期貨，或可推測兩岸因ECFA的簽訂使實體經濟的關聯性更為緊密，至於恆生指數期貨大多以金融、地產股為其主要成分，與大陸主要以實體經濟為主的金融市場，其Granger預測滬深300股指期貨的能力因此相對較弱。另由衝擊反應檢定得知恆生指數期貨為一獨立的市場，不受台灣及大陸指數期貨市場衝擊的影響；滬深300指數期貨因大陸金融市場逐漸開放，也會受到香港及台灣金融期貨市場之衝擊而產生影響；至於台股指數期貨則在兩岸三地，最易受到其他市場影響。最後由預測變異數分解檢定發現，台股指數期貨及滬深300股指期貨的波動皆易受到恆生股價指數期貨變異的影響，而恆生指數期貨在兩岸三地間之解釋能力最強，於兩岸三地間具金融主導地位。至於台股指數期貨對大陸金融期貨的影響也有突出的表現，因此若政府有心推展亞太金融中心之營運，勢必得加強區域間整合的力度，提出有利吸引外資之最政策，以增加台灣股市於國際間之競爭力。 / This study conducts analysis of regional linkage between financial futures market by examining consecutive daily closing information from April 16, 2010 (the official list date of CSI 300 index futures) to September 18, 2012. This study tries to find the financial dominance of these index futures market in the Asia Pacific region and hopefully it may be used as an investment decision reference for domestic and foreign investors. The empirical results show that from the total integration and vector error correction model tests and three places all indicate long-run equilibrium stock index futures and short-term interaction. Therefore, these three places can be viewed as a single regional market. In the Granger causality test on the TAIEX futures and Hang Seng Index futures, in spite of TAIEX futures can’t predict Hang Seng Index futures, it is significantly ahead of the CSI 300 index futures. TAIEX futures on the CSI 300 index futures even more impact than the Hang Seng Index Futures. It can explain that the ECFA has been signed and results show closely-related economy. Since the Hang Seng Index futures are mainly from financial and real estate stocks while the mainland-based financial market is mainly from the real economy, Granger predicts ability of CSI 300 index futures is relatively weak. Another test on the impulse response shows that (1) Hang Seng Index Futures is an independent market and is not affected by shocks from Taiwan and the mainland index futures markets, (2) CSI 300 index futures is affected by shocks from Hong Kong and Taiwan because of the gradually open financial markets, and (3) TAIEX futures can be seen as a potential Taiwanese dish economy because it is most vulnerable to other market influences among the three places. To sum up, the forecast variance decomposition tests show that TAIEX futures and the CSI 300 stock index futures are vulnerable to fluctuations in the Hang Seng index futures. In order words, the Hang Seng Index futures have the strongest explanatory power among the three places and shows financial dominance. The TAIEX futures also show its significant impact on the mainland China financial futures index. If the Government decides to promote the operation of the Asia-Pacific financial center and to increase competitiveness of Taiwan stock market, it will inevitably have to strengthen inter-regional integration efforts and make the most favorable policies to attract foreign investment.

金融商品的價格變動是投資人用以判斷獲利與否的重要工具，因為價格變動不易精確預測，所以常利用其他變數輔助預測價格變動，其中以交易量最常被投資人用來分析價格變動。本文是利用台灣首檔指數型股票基金「台灣50指數股票型基金，簡稱TTT」，分析基金的價格變動與交易量之間的關係。 由於TTT具有「實物申購╱買回」機制，當TTT發生折溢價現象時，投資者會利用此機制進行策略性的投資。因此，「實物申購╱買回」機制使用，會對TTT交易量產生影響，並且使得基金淨值與價格更為貼進。所以本文也將分析TTT折溢價與交易量之間的關係。 本研究利用Granger因果關係理論檢測變數之間的因果關係，實證結果發現，TTT的交易量與價格變動呈現雙向因果關係，且折溢價對於交易量具有單向因果關係，即折溢價可以解釋和預測交易量變動，並且折溢價偏離的現象在半天之內會消失。因此，歸論「實物申購╱買回」機制能有效發揮其作用。 / This study examines intraday patterns of the Taiwan Top 50 Tracker Fund (TTT), with special emphasis on the causal relationship between trading volume and return, and the causal relationship between trading volume and deviation ratio. We find strong intraday seasonality, namely the W-shaped trading pattern which appeared to be caused by the so-called lunch-break effect. After accounting for this apparent seasonality, and by employing the Granger causality test, we find that there is a causal bi-direction relationship between trading volume and absolute return. However, there only exists a uni-directional causal relationship from the deviation ratio to trading volume, but not vice versa. Also, the deviation is disappeared within half day.