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<p dir="ltr">The recent surge in water levels within the Great Lakes has laid bare the vulnerability of the surrounding coastal areas. Over the past few years, communities along the Great Lakes coast have struggled with widespread coastal transformations, witnessing phenomena such as shoreline retreat, alterations in habitat, significant recession of bluffs and dunes, infrastructure and property damage, coastal flooding, and the failure of coastal protection structures. Unlike the ocean coasts, the Great Lakes coastal regions experience a unique confluence of large interannual water level fluctuations, coastal storms, and ice cover dynamics, which complicates the ongoing coastal management endeavors. To address this multifaceted challenge, the interplay between all these factors and their impact on coastal changes should be understood and applied to improve the resilience of Great Lakes coastal areas.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">In this dissertation, several steps were taken to improve knowledge of coastal processes in the Great Lakes, spanning from the initial use of remote sensing for quantifying coastal changes to the subsequent stages of modeling and predicting shoreline changes as well as leveraging machine learning techniques to simulate and forecast influential factors like waves and ice cover. First, a fully automated shoreline detection algorithm was developed to quantify the shoreline changes in Lake Michigan, detecting the most vulnerable areas, and determining the main factors responsible for the spatial variability in the shoreline changes. Additionally, a reduced complexity model was designed to simulate the shoreline changes in Lake Michigan by considering both waves and water level fluctuations, which significantly improved the shoreline changes modeling and forecasting for Lake Michigan. Furthermore, new deep learning-based frameworks based on the Convolution Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) and Convolution Neural Network (CNN) were introduced to model and extend the current records of wave heights and ice cover datasets, adding 70% and 50% data to the existing waves and ice time series respectively. Finally, the extended waves and ice time series were used to study the long-term trends and the correlation between the interannual water level and waves changes, revealing a statically significant decreasing trend in the ice cover over Lake Michigan of 0.6 days/year, and an increasing trend in the waves interannual variability at Chicago area.</p>

Over the 21st century, climate change and wetland habitat loss will pose major threats to the Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a federally threatened and Great Lakes region endemic rattlesnake. I collected capture-recapture data from sites across the range and modeled the effect of climatic variables on growth rate and asymptotic size. I found that high snow residence time was associated with larger asymptotic sizes but slower growth, while high spring precipitation increased growth rate. I then projected future growth and size under different carbon emission scenarios. Given the threat posed by successional encroachment of woody vegetation, I used spatially explicit capture-recapture models to examine the effects of landscape characteristics and phenology on the spatial distribution of density for a population in Michigan. I found highest density in areas close to a stream and with low vegetation intensity, which can inform prescribed burn programs and give additional insights into life history.

La théorie transgouvernementale s’appuie sur l’existence de réseaux transfrontaliers entre composantes de l’État exerçant des fonctions similaires dans une optique de gestion de problèmes communs. Le transgouvernementalisme canado-américain se caractérise par un faible abandon de souveraineté des partenaires, une forte participation des acteurs régionaux, une informalité dans les relations et une intégration des secteurs privé et public et de la société civile au sein de réseaux mixtes. Le modèle de gouvernance binationale en place dans la région du bassin du Saint-Laurent et des Grands Lacs présente toutes les caractéristiques du modèle typique d’intégration transgouvernementale canado-américain. Une analyse poussée révèle en effet une matrice complexe et solide de réseaux transgouvernementaux dont les multiples ramifications s’étendent aujourd’hui beaucoup plus loin que le strict cadre des ententes sous l’égide desquelles ces réseaux ont pris naissance. Si le modèle de l’intégration par réseaux transgouvernementaux apparaît comme la solution retenue par les pouvoirs publics dans la gestion collaborative du bassin du Saint-Laurent et des Grands Lacs, s’agit-il du modèle à privilégier en ce qui a trait à la gouvernance du Passage du Nord-Ouest? Bien que le modèle en place dans la région du Saint-Laurent et des Grands Lacs ne puisse être reproduit intégralement relativement à la gestion du Passage du Nord-Ouest, un modèle d’intégration transgouvernementale, du « bas vers le haut », axé sur la mise en place d’une réglementation commune en matière de navigation et sur une intégration opérationnelle visant à assurer la mise en œuvre de cette règlementation, s’avère approprié pour la gestion du Passage du Nord-Ouest. / Transgovernmentalism is based on the existence of transboundary networks between sub-national entities exercising similar functions in order to address common issues. Canada-United States transgovernmentalism can be characterised by limited relinquishment of sovereignty by partners, significant participation of regional actors, informality in the relations and the integration of the private and public sectors and civil society into mixed networks. The governance model in place in the St. Lawrence basin and the Great Lakes region presents all the features of the typical model of Canada-United States transgovernmentalism. A thorough analysis indeed reveals a complex and strong matrix of transgovernmental networks which ramifications now extend far beyond the strict framework of agreements under whose auspices these networks arose. However, if transgovernmentalism is the solution adopted by both governments for the collaborative management of the St. Lawrence basin and the Great Lakes, it is an appropriate governance model for the management of the Northwest Passage? Although the model in place in the region of the St. Lawrence basin and the Great Lakes can not be entirely reproduced for the management of the Northwest Passage, a “bottom-up” transgovernmental model focused on the implementation of common rules in the field of navigation, and on collaboration at the operational level to ensure the implementation of this regulation, is appropriate for the management of Northwest Passage.

La publication de Théorie de la justice par John Rawls en 1971 a apporté un nouvel élan à la philosophie politique. Plusieurs commentaires et critiques de ce livre ont ainsi nourri la réflexion sur la question de la justice sociale dans son application à l’échelle mondiale. Dans ce livre, l’auteur a démontré entre autres que la démocratie libérale permet aux citoyens ayant diverses conceptions du bien, conceptions religieuses, philosophiques ou morales, souvent incompatibles et irréconciliables, d’avoir par ailleurs une conception politique de la rectitude morale et de la justice comme fondement de la structure de base de leur société. Ceci permet alors de soutenir l’unité politique et sociale de cette structure sur une base rationnelle et raisonnable. Par la suite, dans The Law of Peoples, Rawls a présenté un autre projet, celui d’étendre cette conception à la ‘Société des peuples’ qui, pour lui, est une idéalisation du regroupement des peuples qui respectent les idéaux et les principes du ‘Droit des peuples’ dans leurs relations mutuelles, le ‘Droit des peuples’ étant, pour Rawls, une conception politique particulière de la rectitude morale et de la justice qui s’applique aux principes et aux normes du droit et des usages internationaux. Ce projet de Rawls est, comme il l’a nommé lui-même, une utopie réaliste. Partant de cette dernière comme d’un prétexte, notre étude s’inscrit dans un champ de recherche particulier de la philosophie politique, à savoir l’éthique des relations internationales. Elle se veut une contribution à l’élaboration d’une réflexion normative portant sur les principes fondamentaux de justice dans l’ordre international tel qu’il se présente dans les institutions qui l’incarnent aujourd’hui encore, comme le système des Nations Unies, et sur les conséquences de cet ordre dans l’intégration des pays de la région africaine des Grands Lacs. D’où ces questions : Qu’est-ce que l’utopie rawlsienne change-t-elle à l’ordre mondial actuel? Ses principes fondent-ils une éthique susceptible d’améliorer les relations internationales? Quelle serait la place des pays africains, et plus spécialement ceux de la région des Grands Lacs, dans l’ordre mondial inhérent à ce projet? Les réponses à ces questions déterminent ce qui pourrait être considéré comme l’éthique de la gouvernance démocratique globale et les structures pouvant l’incarner. / The publishing of A Theory of Justice by John Rawls in 1971 brought a new impetus to political philosophy. Several comments and critical analyses of this book have thus provided food for thought on the issue of social justice in its application on a world scale. In this book, the author has demonstrated, among other things, that liberal democracy allows citizens with different conceptions of good – whether religious, philosophical or moral – often incompatible and irreconcilable, to have, otherwise, a political conception of moral rectitude and justice as the foundation of the basic structure of their society. This allows to support the political and social unity of this basic structure on a rational and reasonable basis. Subsequently, in his book The Law of Peoples, Rawls presented another project, that of extending that concept to the “Society of Peoples” which, for him, is an idealization of the regrouping of those people who respect the ideals and principles of the Law of peoples in their mutual relations, the “Law of peoples” being, for him, a particular political conception of moral rectitude and justice that is applicable to principles and standards of international law and customs. This project, as Rawls called it himself, is a realistic utopia. Based on the latter as an excuse, our study is in keeping with a particular field of research in political philosophy – namely, the ethics of international relations. It is intended as a contribution to the development of a normative reflection on the fundamental principles of justice in the international order as it is found in the institutions that still embody it nowadays – such as the United Nations Organization – and on the consequences of that order in the integration of the countries of the African region of the Great Lakes. This raises questions such as: What changes does the rawlsian utopia bring to the current world order? Are its principles the basis for an ethic susceptible of improving international relations? What would be the role of African countries, particularly those of the Great Lakes, in the world order inherent in this project? The answers to these questions determine what could be considered the ethics of global democratic governance and the structures which embody it.

Ce travail se propose d’examiner les conséquences du décès parental précoce sur la trajectoire biographique des enfants, dans un régime de mortalité où la principale perturbation n’est pas le VIH/SIDA, mais une grave crise socio-politique. Le Burundi est l’un des épicentres du conflit traversé dans les années 90 par la région des Grands Lacs. A l’aide des données de l’Enquête Socio-Démographique et de Santé de la Reproduction (ESDSR) menée au Burundi en 2002, nous analysons l’impact du décès parental précoce sur un grand nombre de dimensions du parcours de vie des enfants burundais: mortalité, violence et exploitation sexuelle, séparation des membres de la fratrie, scolarité, entrée précoce dans le travail, ressources, conditions de l’héritage, entrée dans la vie reproductive et familiale. Ces analyses sont menées selon l’âge de l’enfant au moment du décès d’au moins un de ses parents, tout en cherchant à évaluer l’effet de la cause de décès des parents (crise/autre cause) sur les résultats obtenus. On montre que la perturbation du parcours de vie des enfants ayant précocement vécu le décès de leur père est mineure. A l’inverse l’expérience précoce de la mère ou du dernier parent survivant affecte la plupart des dimensions de la trajectoire biographique des enfants. La crise burundaise amplifie et, dans certains cas, transforme voire renverse la relation entre l’expérience précoce du décès d’au moins un parent et la trajectoire des enfants. L’orphelin à cause des massacres de masse de 1993 est un orphelin « politique » dont la protection et le soutien par les instances politiques, militaires, administratives et humanitaires est devenu un enjeu de la crise elle-même. / The aim of this paper is to analyze lifetime effects of parental death during childhood, in a country context where HIV/AIDS isn’t the main cause of death among young adults but deaths caused by a major socio-political crisis. During the 90’s, Burundi hosted the cradle of the regional conflict in the Great Lakes. A 2002 demographic, social and reproductive health survey in Burundi (ESDSR) will provide us the information required to analyze impact of early parental death, on a complex panel of life perspectives for children: mortality, violence and sexual abuse, separation of siblings, schooling, working at early age, resources, heritage, early marriage and age at first birth. These analyses are led by child age at early parental death, along with an attempt to estimate the effect from the cause of this death (crisis or other) on results. The strength of leading conclusions is consolidated by the mean of exchanging results, these results being derived from several analysis methods: bivariate and multivariate logistic models adapted or not to clustered data (standard, multilevel, marginal and fixed-effects logistic regressions).We bring lights on the minor effect of early father loss on child life trajectory. On the contrary, early mother or last living parent death experience affects almost every child life trajectory. Burundi crisis emphases but in some cases, reverses those effects from negative to positive. 1993 mass slaughters orphans are “political” orphans. Their political, military, administrative and humanitarian protections became part of the main goals, in the crisis itself.

This dissertation scrutinises two related claims that were particularly heightened in 2009 as the European Union (EU) was celebrating the first tenth anniversary of its European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), the implementing arm of its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). First, the two policy frameworks allegedly embodied sufficient added value for bettering EU intervention for human protection purposes in third places. Second, the ESDP supposedly enabled the EU to make a difference in its response to two bloody wars that broke out in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) successively in 1996 and 1998. This thesis argues that the alleged added value and difference have been overstated at best. While various studies have taken a similar position, they have important shortcomings for at least four reasons: lack of a comprehensive account of the CFSP motives, capacities, and response; exclusive focus on civil and military operations; focus on the post-Second Congo War period; and a lack of conceptual clarity regarding two key terms – ‘conflict resolution’ and ‘peacebuilding’. This thesis goes beyond generalisation and undertakes a forensic examination of the CFSP statements, decisions, and actions precisely through the lens of Conflict Resolution (CR): a specific subject area of study with its own normative, theoretical, and practical advantages and shortcomings; and with a more comprehensive and indeed seminal conceptualisation of peacebuilding. The outcome is a far more nuanced assessment of failure and success of the EU’s peace endeavours in this context than can be obtained through a broad-brush approach to analysis.