This thesis investigates several uses of simulation methods to understand and control pandemic influenza in urban settings. An agent-based simulation, which models pandemic spread in a large metropolitan area, is used for two main purposes: to identify the shape of the distribution of pandemic outcomes, and to test for the presence of complex relationships between public health policy responses and underlying pandemic characteristics. The usefulness of pandemic simulation as a tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs is critically evaluated through a rigorous comparison of three recent H1N1 vaccine cost-effectiveness studies. The potential for simulation methods to improve vaccine deployment is then demonstrated through a discrete-event simulation study of a mass immunization clinic.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Karol inst., 2003. / Härtill 6 uppsatser. ISBN tilldelat efter tryckningen.

Health and public health services in England are under increasing financial pressure. At the same time, nearly 40% of the total disease burden is potentially amenable to known causes with two of the leading behavioural risk factors being unhealthy diets and physical inactivity. To better inform decision makers and improve health in England, this thesis aims to develop a cost-effectiveness model that can directly compare diet and physical activity interventions. Published public health economic models were reviewed and the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling structures were explored. A pre-existing multistate life table model, PRIMEtime, was developed into PRIMEtime Cost Effectiveness (PRIMEtime CE). Disease specific NHS England costs were derived from NHS England Programme Budgeting Data and unrelated disease costs from NHS cost curves. Social care costs were quantified using a Department of Health tool for estimating wider societal costs. Disease specific utility decrements were adopted from a catalogue of EuroQoL five dimensions questionnaire scores. The cost effectiveness of reformulating food to have less salt and of expanding access to leisure centres in England were modelled from an NHS and social care perspective over a 10 year time horizon, including government and industry costs. Salt reformulation was dominant with an estimated cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) of -£17,000 (95% uncertainty interval, -£40,000 to £39,000), compared with £727,000 (£514,000 to £1,064,000) for increasing access to leisure centres. Sensitivity analyses and cross validation testing of outcomes demonstrated how cost per QALY estimates were sensitive to the choice of model scope, parameters, and structure. PRIMEtime CE is a tool for decision makers to compare interventions affecting diet and physical activity, enabling them to make better informed choices about how to spend finite resources. Future work will focus on making the model freely available and expanding its risk factors to enable comparisons of other public health interventions.

O Brasil conta com uma rede de atenção terciária razoavelmente bem equipada nos grandes centros urbanos e com a rede de atenção primária em fase de franca expansão na maioria dos municípios. Entre estes dois extremos do sistema de saúde há um hiato deixado pela inexistência, em grande parte das regiões distantes dos grandes centros, da atenção secundária, fato que gera a necessidade de grandes deslocamentos diários de pessoas para realização de consultas e exames de média complexidade. Objetivo: Comparar, do ponto de vista econômico, duas formas de assistência: a convencional que está em prática em todos os municípios do RS; e a modalidade com a descentralização do exame de espirometria com apoio da teleassistência. Método: Estudo de custo-minimização da implantação da espirometria descentralizada com apoio de teleconsultoria em município distante 50Km da Capital do Estado do RS e que encaminha todos os pacientes que necessitam deste exame. Este trabalho foi apresentado como dissertação de mestrado ao PPG em Epidemiologia da UFRGS. Resultados: Observou-se que em um ano gastou-se R$ 16.966,35 com o encaminhamento de pacientes para consulta e realização de espirometria comparado com o custo de R$ 15.150,00 para se implantar um espirômetro descentralizado. Na análise dos gastos individualmente encontrou-se uma economia de R$ 102,71 por paciente que realizar o diagnóstico e o tratamento na forma descentralizada. Conclusão: O menor custo da espirometria descentralizada, a redução dos deslocamentos rodoviários e a possibilidade de eliminar a demanda reprimida por este procedimento de média complexidade justificam sua implantação. / Brazil has a well organized tertiary care network in major urban centers and a growing primary care network in almost all municipalities. In between, a gap exists due to the virtual absence of specialists offering secondary care services outside of major metropolitan areas. This results in a daily pilgrimage of patients to receive specialist consultations and undergo exams of moderate complexity. Objective: To compare, from an economic viewpoint, two modes of care: the conventional one currently being practiced across the state of Rio Grande do Sul; against a modality of decentralized spirometry with interpretation using telemedicine. Methods: Cost-minimization study of the implementation of decentralized spirometry using telemedicine, taking as a model a municipality 50 km distant from the state capital which currently references all patients who need this exam. Results: In one year R$ 16,966.35 would be spent in referencing these patients compared with R$ 15,150.00 that would be spent with the implementation of decentralized spirometry. When costs are expressed per patient, we found a saving of R$ 102.71 for each patient who received decentralized care. Conclusion: The lower cost of decentralized spirometry coupled with the possibility of eliminating backed up demand for this moderate complexity procedure justify its implementation. / Telemedicina

O câncer de colo de útero (CCU) é um dos mais danosos que afetam as mulheres, especialmente em países em desenvolvimento, onde os programas de prevenção (baseados no exame de Papanicolaou) não se mostram efetivos. Vacinas contra o HPV foram disponibilizadas em 2007 como prevenção primária do CCU. Apresentam boa eficácia e segurança, porém um elevado custo para sua incorporação. O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar a incidência de câncer de colo de útero no estado de Roraima, seu impacto econômico, e o perfil sócio-econômico das portadoras de CCU tratada no SUS, além de realizar análises de custo-efetividade e custo-utilidade da inclusão da vacinação para o HPV aos programas preventivos vigentes. A dissertação é composta por 2 ensaios cujo tema unificador é a análise econômica de estratégias de combate ao CCU. No primeiro ensaio, todos os exames histopatológicos e citológicos emitidos em Roraima em 2009 foram revisados, juntamente com os prontuários médicos de todas as pacientes portadoras de CCU. Todos os procedimentos terapêuticos e diagnósticos realizados em 2009 em portadoras de CCU foram registrados. Prospectivamente foram entrevistadas as pacientes portadoras de CCU abordando tópicos sócio-econômicos. Foram registrados 90 casos de CCU em Roraima em 2009. A incidência correspondeu a 46,2 casos novos por 100.000 mulheres, a maior do Brasil. As portadoras do CCU demonstram perfil econômico desfavorável, exclusão social, e baixo conhecimento e adesão precária aos programas preventivos de saúde feminina. O impacto anual do CCU para gestão em saúde de Roraima é superior a R$8 mil por caso. Este ensaio ressalta a inequidade de acesso aos programas preventivos em Roraima, excluindo da cobertura de rastreio o subgrupo que mais se beneficiaria, e gerando custos elevados. O segundo ensaio realiza avaliações econômicas da incorporação da vacina para o HPV para o estado de Roraima. Foi desenvolvido um modelo de coorte de Markov como instrumento analítico de simulação da história natural do HPV até a progressão para CCU, levando em consideração os programas preventivos. As probabilidades de transição foram baseadas preferencialmente em dados empíricos locais e nacionais. Após calibração satisfatória e considerando valores de caso-base, a adição a vacinação para HPV reduziria em 35% a incidência de CCU, em cenário de realização de 3 testes de Papanicolaou ao longo da vida. A razão incremental de custo-efetividade foi de R$ 2.556 para cada ano de vida ajustado pela qualidade (AVAQ) poupado. As análises de sensibilidade confirmam a robustez deste resultado. A vacinação possui perfil favorável do ponto de vista de custo-utilidade, e sua inclusão no calendário vacinal resultaria em redução substancial da incidência e mortalidade por CCU em Roraima. / Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is one of the most damaging that affect women, especially in developing countries, where preventive programs (based on the Pap smear) haven’t achieved effectiveness. HPV vaccines have recently been proposed as primary prevention of ICC. They show good efficacy and safety, but a high cost for its acquisition. Objectives: The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the incidence of ICC in Roraima, its economic impact, and the socioeconomic profile of ICC carriers assisted in the public health system, and to perform a costeffectiveness and cost-utility analysis of adding HPV vaccination to current preventive programs. In the first essay, all histopathologic and cytologic reports issued in Roraima in 2009 were reviewed, along with the medical records of all patients diagnosed with ICC. All therapeutic and diagnostic procedures performed in 2009 in women with ICC cervix carcinoma were recorded. These patients were argued prospectively, addressing socio-economic topics. We registered 90 cases of cervical cancer in Roraima in 2009. The incidence corresponded to 46.2 new cases per 100,000 women. Carriers of the ICC showed unfavorable economic profile, social exclusion, deficient knowledge on ICC prevention and low adherence to the screening preventive programs. The annual impact of the ICC in Roraima is over R$ 8,000 per case. This essay highlights the inequity of access to preventive programs in Roraima, that excludes the subgroup of the population who would mostly benefit from screening, resulting in elevated costs. The second essay conducted economic evaluations of the incorporation of HPV vaccine to preventive programs in Roraima. A Markov cohort model was developed as an analytic tool to simulate the natural history of HPV and its progress to ICC, considering the current preventive programs. Transition probabilities were based mainly on empirical data of local and national studies. After satisfactory calibration values and considering the base case, the addition of HPV vaccination would reduce by 35% the incidence of ICC, in a scenario of three Pap tests throughout life. The incremental ratio of cost-effectiveness was R$ 2,556 for each year of quality-adjusted life (QALY) saved. The sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of this result. Vaccination has a favorable profile in terms of cost-utility, and its inclusion in the immunization schedule would result in substantial reduction in incidence and mortality of ICC in Roraima.

xi, 108 p. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / Micro-level survey data are widely used in applied economic research. This dissertation, which consists of three empirical papers, demonstrates challenges in empirical research using micro-level survey data, as well as some methods to accommodate these problems. Chapter II examines the effect of China's recent public health insurance reform on health utilization and health status. Chinese policy makers have been eager to identify how this reform, characterized by a substantial increase in out-of-pocket costs, has affected health care demand and health status. However, due to self-selection of individuals into the publicly insured group, the impact of the reform remains an unresolved issue. I employ a Heckman selection model in the context of difference-in-difference regression to accommodate the selection problem, and provide the first solid empirical evidence that the recent public health insurance reforms in China adversely affected both health care access and health status for publicly insured individuals. Chapter III examines the construct validity of a stated preference (SP) survey concerning climate change policy. Due to the fact that the SP survey method remains a controversial tool for benefit-cost analysis, every part of the survey deserves thorough examination to ensure the quality of the data. Using a random utility approach, I establish that there is a great deal of logical consistency between people's professed attitudes toward different payment vehicles and their subsequent choices among policies which vary in the incidence of their costs. Chapter IV employs the same survey data used in Chapter III, but demonstrates the potential for order effects stemming from prior attitude-elicitation questions. In addition, it considers the potential impact of these order effects on Willingness to Pay (WTP) estimates for climate change mitigation. I find the orderings of prior elicitation questions may change people's opinions toward various attributes of the different policies, and thereby increase or decrease their WTP by a substantial amount. Thus, this chapter emphasizes the significance of order effects in prior elicitation questions, and supports a call for diligence in using randomly ordered prior elicitation questions in stated preference surveys, to minimize inadvertent effects from any single arbitrary ordering. / Adviser: Trudy Ann Cameron

Cette thèse examine plusieurs questions relatives à la qualité des soins hospitaliers, à travers les prismes disciplinaires de l’économie et de la santé publique.Le premier chapitre introduit la notion de qualité des soins en santé publique et en économie. L’examen du traitement classique de cette notion dans les deux disciplines met en évidence la convergence des définitions de la qualité des soins proposées et la complémentarité des approches de la régulation promues par les deux disciplines.La concurrence à prix fixes, telle que celle induite par la tarification à l’activité, devrait conduire à une amélioration de la qualité des soins si la demande est sensible à la qualité. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous exploitons des données relatives à la diffusion publique de palmarès hospitaliers pour estimer, à partir d’un panel d’établissements français et pour plusieurs situations cliniques, l’élasticité de la demande de soins vis-à-vis de la qualité, pour les secteurs public et privé. Nous mettons en évidence un impact des palmarès sur l’activité des hôpitaux privés, pour l’une des situations cliniques considérées. En revanche, la demande adressée au secteur public ne semble pas influencée par la publication des palmarès. Ces résultats questionnent l’hypothèse d’une concurrence en qualité dans le secteur public en France.Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse au coût de stratégies de lutte contre les infections nosocomiales, dans une perspective hospitalière. Nous avons évalué les coûts associés à des interventions de promotion de mesures d’hygiène générale ou de dépistage ciblé des bactéries multi-résistantes, dans le cadre de deux essais cliniques multi-centriques européens en soins intensifs et en chirurgie. Nos résultats soulignent la plus grande variabilité des coûts des stratégies de promotion globales et, pour les interventions dont l’efficacité a été démontrée dans le cadre de ces études, un coût de mise en œuvre compatible avec l’hypothèse que ces interventions sont coût-efficaces. / This work takes the perspectives of economics and public health to study issues related to the quality of hospital care.The first chapter introduces the concept of quality of care in economics and public health. We show that the two fields use similar definitions of the concept but explore differing and complementary approaches towards its regulation.Fixed price competition between hospitals, as implemented by a prospective payment system, should lead to an improvement of care quality, provided that the demand for care is increasing with quality. The second chapter evaluates the sensitivity to quality of demand for hospital care in France, using ranking lists published by the lay media as a measure of information on quality available to potential patients. We estimate changes in hospital demand caused by ranking lists on a panel of hospitals located in the Paris area, for several pathologies. We find a sizeable and significant demand shift towards hospitals belonging to the top list in the forprofit sector for one pathology. No effect is observed for non-profit hospitals, or for other pathologies in the for profit sector. Competition for quality may thus not be a feasible regulation approach for French public hospitals.The third chapter provides evidence regarding the cost of hospital infection control strategies targeting antimicrobial resistant bacteria. We estimated the burden and costs associated with two types of strategies, relying on targeted screening or on general hygiene promotion strategies, in two multinational controlled clinical trials, in surgical and intensive care units.Our results highlight the variability of costs associated with broad, non-specific hygiene promotion interventions, and, for interventions which were found to be effective by the clinical trials, costs that are consistent with the hypothesis that these interventions are costeffective.

O Brasil conta com uma rede de atenção terciária razoavelmente bem equipada nos grandes centros urbanos e com a rede de atenção primária em fase de franca expansão na maioria dos municípios. Entre estes dois extremos do sistema de saúde há um hiato deixado pela inexistência, em grande parte das regiões distantes dos grandes centros, da atenção secundária, fato que gera a necessidade de grandes deslocamentos diários de pessoas para realização de consultas e exames de média complexidade. Objetivo: Comparar, do ponto de vista econômico, duas formas de assistência: a convencional que está em prática em todos os municípios do RS; e a modalidade com a descentralização do exame de espirometria com apoio da teleassistência. Método: Estudo de custo-minimização da implantação da espirometria descentralizada com apoio de teleconsultoria em município distante 50Km da Capital do Estado do RS e que encaminha todos os pacientes que necessitam deste exame. Este trabalho foi apresentado como dissertação de mestrado ao PPG em Epidemiologia da UFRGS. Resultados: Observou-se que em um ano gastou-se R$ 16.966,35 com o encaminhamento de pacientes para consulta e realização de espirometria comparado com o custo de R$ 15.150,00 para se implantar um espirômetro descentralizado. Na análise dos gastos individualmente encontrou-se uma economia de R$ 102,71 por paciente que realizar o diagnóstico e o tratamento na forma descentralizada. Conclusão: O menor custo da espirometria descentralizada, a redução dos deslocamentos rodoviários e a possibilidade de eliminar a demanda reprimida por este procedimento de média complexidade justificam sua implantação. / Brazil has a well organized tertiary care network in major urban centers and a growing primary care network in almost all municipalities. In between, a gap exists due to the virtual absence of specialists offering secondary care services outside of major metropolitan areas. This results in a daily pilgrimage of patients to receive specialist consultations and undergo exams of moderate complexity. Objective: To compare, from an economic viewpoint, two modes of care: the conventional one currently being practiced across the state of Rio Grande do Sul; against a modality of decentralized spirometry with interpretation using telemedicine. Methods: Cost-minimization study of the implementation of decentralized spirometry using telemedicine, taking as a model a municipality 50 km distant from the state capital which currently references all patients who need this exam. Results: In one year R$ 16,966.35 would be spent in referencing these patients compared with R$ 15,150.00 that would be spent with the implementation of decentralized spirometry. When costs are expressed per patient, we found a saving of R$ 102.71 for each patient who received decentralized care. Conclusion: The lower cost of decentralized spirometry coupled with the possibility of eliminating backed up demand for this moderate complexity procedure justify its implementation. / Telemedicina

O câncer de colo de útero (CCU) é um dos mais danosos que afetam as mulheres, especialmente em países em desenvolvimento, onde os programas de prevenção (baseados no exame de Papanicolaou) não se mostram efetivos. Vacinas contra o HPV foram disponibilizadas em 2007 como prevenção primária do CCU. Apresentam boa eficácia e segurança, porém um elevado custo para sua incorporação. O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar a incidência de câncer de colo de útero no estado de Roraima, seu impacto econômico, e o perfil sócio-econômico das portadoras de CCU tratada no SUS, além de realizar análises de custo-efetividade e custo-utilidade da inclusão da vacinação para o HPV aos programas preventivos vigentes. A dissertação é composta por 2 ensaios cujo tema unificador é a análise econômica de estratégias de combate ao CCU. No primeiro ensaio, todos os exames histopatológicos e citológicos emitidos em Roraima em 2009 foram revisados, juntamente com os prontuários médicos de todas as pacientes portadoras de CCU. Todos os procedimentos terapêuticos e diagnósticos realizados em 2009 em portadoras de CCU foram registrados. Prospectivamente foram entrevistadas as pacientes portadoras de CCU abordando tópicos sócio-econômicos. Foram registrados 90 casos de CCU em Roraima em 2009. A incidência correspondeu a 46,2 casos novos por 100.000 mulheres, a maior do Brasil. As portadoras do CCU demonstram perfil econômico desfavorável, exclusão social, e baixo conhecimento e adesão precária aos programas preventivos de saúde feminina. O impacto anual do CCU para gestão em saúde de Roraima é superior a R$8 mil por caso. Este ensaio ressalta a inequidade de acesso aos programas preventivos em Roraima, excluindo da cobertura de rastreio o subgrupo que mais se beneficiaria, e gerando custos elevados. O segundo ensaio realiza avaliações econômicas da incorporação da vacina para o HPV para o estado de Roraima. Foi desenvolvido um modelo de coorte de Markov como instrumento analítico de simulação da história natural do HPV até a progressão para CCU, levando em consideração os programas preventivos. As probabilidades de transição foram baseadas preferencialmente em dados empíricos locais e nacionais. Após calibração satisfatória e considerando valores de caso-base, a adição a vacinação para HPV reduziria em 35% a incidência de CCU, em cenário de realização de 3 testes de Papanicolaou ao longo da vida. A razão incremental de custo-efetividade foi de R$ 2.556 para cada ano de vida ajustado pela qualidade (AVAQ) poupado. As análises de sensibilidade confirmam a robustez deste resultado. A vacinação possui perfil favorável do ponto de vista de custo-utilidade, e sua inclusão no calendário vacinal resultaria em redução substancial da incidência e mortalidade por CCU em Roraima. / Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is one of the most damaging that affect women, especially in developing countries, where preventive programs (based on the Pap smear) haven’t achieved effectiveness. HPV vaccines have recently been proposed as primary prevention of ICC. They show good efficacy and safety, but a high cost for its acquisition. Objectives: The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the incidence of ICC in Roraima, its economic impact, and the socioeconomic profile of ICC carriers assisted in the public health system, and to perform a costeffectiveness and cost-utility analysis of adding HPV vaccination to current preventive programs. In the first essay, all histopathologic and cytologic reports issued in Roraima in 2009 were reviewed, along with the medical records of all patients diagnosed with ICC. All therapeutic and diagnostic procedures performed in 2009 in women with ICC cervix carcinoma were recorded. These patients were argued prospectively, addressing socio-economic topics. We registered 90 cases of cervical cancer in Roraima in 2009. The incidence corresponded to 46.2 new cases per 100,000 women. Carriers of the ICC showed unfavorable economic profile, social exclusion, deficient knowledge on ICC prevention and low adherence to the screening preventive programs. The annual impact of the ICC in Roraima is over R$ 8,000 per case. This essay highlights the inequity of access to preventive programs in Roraima, that excludes the subgroup of the population who would mostly benefit from screening, resulting in elevated costs. The second essay conducted economic evaluations of the incorporation of HPV vaccine to preventive programs in Roraima. A Markov cohort model was developed as an analytic tool to simulate the natural history of HPV and its progress to ICC, considering the current preventive programs. Transition probabilities were based mainly on empirical data of local and national studies. After satisfactory calibration values and considering the base case, the addition of HPV vaccination would reduce by 35% the incidence of ICC, in a scenario of three Pap tests throughout life. The incremental ratio of cost-effectiveness was R$ 2,556 for each year of quality-adjusted life (QALY) saved. The sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of this result. Vaccination has a favorable profile in terms of cost-utility, and its inclusion in the immunization schedule would result in substantial reduction in incidence and mortality of ICC in Roraima.

This thesis attempts to apply the theory of rational disease dynamics to the human papillomavirus by testing whether HPV vaccinations are prevalence elastic. A prevalence elastic relationship suggests that HPV vaccination rates respond positively to increasing prevalence rates of cervical cancer. Prevalence rates are measured both by incidence rates of cervical cancer and by mortality rates of cervical cancer. Data from the NIS-Teen Survey as well as data from the United States Cancer Statistics branch of the Centers for Disease Controls are used to construct a linear regression that controls for income, education levels, proxies for social culture, and proxies for physician access. Incidence was found to have no statistically significant effect on vaccination rates, while mortality rates were found to have a negative relationship with vaccination rates, suggesting that the rational disease dynamics theory does not apply to human papillomavirus and that vaccination rates for HPV are not prevalence elastic.