MENVSC (Climatology) / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / Heat waves are warm extreme temperature events that have environmental and socio-economic impacts in many regions across the world. Negative impacts of warm extreme temperatures over South Africa necessitate the need to study the nature of heat waves. Observations and satellite datasets are analysed in the investigation of the nature and trends of heat waves over South Africa in the present (1983-2012) and future (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) climates. Case study and composite analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction datasets were done using the Grids Analysis and Display Systems to get an in-depth understanding of the structure of heat waves in South Africa. Future climate model output obtained from the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model was used for future heat wave trends in South Africa. The simulations were made using the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Heat waves are unusual events in the present climate (1983-2012) over much of the country, with 20 of the selected 24 stations experiencing an average of less than one heat wave per season. Heat waves are also more frequent and last longer during warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) than in cool phase of ENSO with the north-east being the most prone region. Composite analysis of 500 hPa omega indicates subsidence over the interior of South Africa in both phases of ENSO. Heat waves in South Africa are localized and associated with a middle level high pressure system that persists over the interior inducing anticyclonic flow and subsidence. The anticyclonic circulation over a region experiencing heat wave weakens with decreasing height over land areas which may be due to frictional forces at the surface and the high is placed further south-east at the surface. Advection of dry continental northerly winds also contributes to high maximum temperatures during heat waves in the interior. Maximum temperatures are expected to increase drastically from the present-day climate to the 2070 – 2099 period, with an average increment of about 8°C during DJF in much of the central interior. As a result, heat wave occurrences are expected to be higher in the future warmer climates when climate change signal is higher. Most increases are expected for heat waves lasting for a week than those lasting for over 2 weeks. CCAM outputs also indicated that heat waves in South Africa are expected to last longer and become more intense during the future warmer climates. Longer lasting and more intense heat waves are expected over the Karoo than in other parts of the country.

MENVSC / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / Climate change has a crucial impact on livelihoods, economy, and water resources due to the occurrence of weather and climate extreme events such as floods, droughts and heat waves. Extreme weather has been increasing worldwide, hence the need to understand their nature and trends. The aim of this study was to analyse the spatial variability and long-term trends of climate extremes over the Limpopo in South Africa from 1960 to 2014. Rainfall, temperature, and circulation fields were analysed to understand the extent, nature of climate extremes over the Limpopo. Extreme value theory (EVT) is a powerful method that was also employed in this study to provide statistical models for events rarely observed. R statistical software was used for clustering analysis which has a variety of functions for cluster analysis. Any station whose value is larger than 95th for any day of the season was considered as a widespread extreme event. The results show that the study area is highly vulnerable to extreme events due to its latitudinal location and low altitude. Anomalous cut-off lows, tropical cyclones and tropical storms are the major extreme producing systems affecting the Limpopo province whilst the Botswana High becomes dominant during heat waves and drought. Extreme weather events are common in Limpopo during summertime and often coincide with mature phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. In this study, after the suitable model for data was chosen, the interest was in deriving return levels of extreme maximum rainfall. The computed data for return levels predicted that the 5-year return period’s return level is approximately 223.89 mm, which suggests that rainfall of 223.89 mm or more per month should occur at that station or location on the average of once every five years. / NRF / http://hdl.handle.net/11602/1485

Les épisodes de sécheresse et de canicule qui frappent épisodiquement les régions tempérées ont des conséquences préjudiciables sur les plans sanitaire, économique, social et écologique. Afin de pouvoir enclencher des stratégies de préparation et de prévention avec quelques semaines ou mois d'anticipation, les attentes sociétales en matière de prévision sont élevées, et ce d'autant plus que les projections climatiques font craindre la multiplication de ces épisodes au cours du 21ème siècle. Néanmoins, la saison d'été est la plus difficile à prévoir aux moyennes latitudes. Les sources connues de prévisibilité sont plus ténues qu'en hiver et les systèmes de prévision climatique actuels peinent à représenter correctement les mécanismes de téléconnexion associés. Un nombre croissant d'études a mis en évidence un lien statistique dans certaines régions entre l'humidité du sol au printemps et les températures et précipitations de l'été qui suit. Ce lien a été partiellement confirmé dans des modèles numériques de climat mais de nombreuses interrogations subsistent. L'objectif de cette thèse est donc de mieux comprendre le rôle joué par l'humidité du sol sur les caractéristiques et la prévisibilité du climat de l'été dans les régions tempérées. Grâce notamment au modèle couplé de circulation générale CNRM-CM, nous avons mis en œuvre des ensembles de simulations numériques qui nous ont permis d'évaluer le degré de persistance des anomalies d'humidité du sol printanière. En effet, une longue persistance est une condition nécessaire pour que ces anomalies influencent le climat à l'échelle de la saison, via le processus d'évapotranspiration de la surface. En imposant dans notre modèle des conditions initiales et aux limitées idéalisées d'humidité du sol, nous avons mis en évidence des régions du globe pour lesquelles l'état moyen et la variabilité des températures et des précipitations en été sont particulièrement sensibles à ces conditions. C'est notamment le cas sur une grande partie de l'Europe et de l'Amérique du nord, y compris à des latitudes élevées. Pour toutes ces régions, l'humidité du sol est une source prometteuse de prévisibilité potentielle du climat à l'horizon saisonnier, bien que de fortes incertitudes demeurent localement sur le degré de persistance de ses anomalies. Une expérience de prévisibilité effective coordonnée avec plusieurs systèmes de prévision montre qu'une initialisation réaliste de l'humidité du sol améliore la prévision de températures estivales principalement dans le sud-est de l'Europe. Dans d'autres régions, comme l'Europe du Nord, le désaccord des modèles provient de l'incertitude sur la persistance des anomalies d'humidité du sol. En revanche, sur les Grandes Plaines américaines, aucun modèle n'améliore ses prévisions qui restent donc très médiocres. La littérature ainsi que nos évaluations de sensibilité du climat à l'humidité du sol ont pourtant identifié cette région comme un "hotspot" du couplage entre l'humidité du sol et l'atmosphère. Nous supposons que l'échec de ces prévisions est une conséquence des forts biais chauds et secs présents dans tous les modèles sur cette région en été, qui conduisent à un dessèchement excessif des sols. Pour le vérifier, nous avons développé une méthode qui corrige ces biais au cours de l'intégration des prévisions avec CNRM-CM6. Les prévisions qui en résultent sont nettement améliorées sur les Grandes Plaines. La compréhension de l'origine des biais continentaux en été et leur réduction dans les prochaines générations de modèles de climat sont des étapes essentielles pour tirer le meilleur parti de l'humidité du sol comme source de prévisibilité saisonnière dans les régions tempérées. / Severe heat waves and droughts that episodically hit temperate regions have detrimental consequences on health, economy and society. The design and deployment of efficient preparedness strategies foster high expectations for the prediction of such events a few weeks or months ahead. Their likely increased frequency throughout the 21st century, as envisaged by climate projections, further emphasizes these expectations. Nevertheless, the summer season is the most difficult to predict over mid-latitudes. Well-known sources of predictability are weaker than in winter and current climate prediction systems struggle to adequately represent associated teleconnection mechanisms. An increasing number of studies have shown a statistical link over some regions between spring soil moisture and subsequent summer temperature and precipitation. This link has been partly confirmed in climate numerical models, but many questions remain. The purpose of this PhD thesis is to better understand the role played by soil moisture onthe characteristics and predictability of the summer climate in temperate regions. By means of the CNRM-CM coupled general circulation model, we have designed a range of numerical simulations which help us evaluate the persistence level of spring soil moisture anomalies. Indeed, a long persistence is a necessary condition for these anomalies to influence the climate at the seasonal scale, through the process of evapotranspiration. By imposing in our model idealized initial and boundary soil moisture conditions, we have highlighted areas of the globe for which the average state and the variability of temperatures and precipitation in summer is particularly sensitive to these conditions. This is the case in particular for Europe and North America, including over high latitudes. Soil moisture is therefore a promising source of potential seasonal climate predictability for these regions, although the persistence of soil moisture anomalies remains locally very uncertain. An effective predictability coordinated experiment, bringing together several prediction systems, shows that a realistic soil moisture initialization improves the forecast skill of summer temperatures mainly over southeast Europe. In other regions, such as Northern Europe, the disagreement between models comes from uncertainty about the persistence of soil moisture anomalies. On the other hand, over the American Great Plains, even the forecasts with improved soil moisture initialization remain unsuccessful. Yet, the literature as well as our assessment of climate sensitivity to soil moisture have identified this region as a "hotspot" of soil moisture - atmosphere coupling. We assume that the failure of these predictions relates to the strong hot and dry bias present in all models over this region in summer, which leads to excessive soil drying. To verify this assumption, we developed a method that corrects these biases during the forecast integration based on the CNRM-CM6 model. The resulting forecasts are significantly improved over the Great Plains. Understanding the origin of continental biases in the summer and reducing them in future generations of climate models are essential steps to making the most of soil moisture as a source of seasonal predictability in temperate regions

This thesis consists of three essays in applied microeconomics: First, heat and school absence: evidence from a survey of Indian children. Second, heatwaves and short-term morbidity in India. Third, intra-family marriage and pregnancy outcomes. Chapter 1. India is the second most populous country on earth with young people representing a significant number of the population resulting in data that indicates such figures at 38 per cent. With such high numbers, major consideration must be given into developing informed and targeted policies to ensure positive educational outcomes for young people. This paper contributes to existing literature by investigating the impact of high temperatures on students’ rates of absenteeism, relying on the short-term exogenous variation in daily maximum temperatures. The paper highlights the heterogeneity of the effect of temperature by climate zone. To create data, we link information on children’s school absences from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-II) in combination with meteorological data from the ERA-Interim archive taken from a thirty day period prior to individual interview dates. Our findings suggest that high temperatures have a substantial negative impact on students’ attendance in rural areas. However, limited evidence of such an effect is found in urban areas. Our results therefore indicate a need to implement future in-depth studies. Chapter 2. Within this chapter, we investigate the impact of prolonged heat exposure on individuals short-term morbidity rates over a thirty day period prior to the interview date. We work with a broad dataset and use an econometric model that utilizes plausibly exogenous variation in high weather temperatures. We implement the percentile-based approach and three different heatwave metrics as a innovative way of defining and capturing the impact of heatwaves on health outcomes. Our results show that heatwave intensity of the eighty-fifth percentile over the duration of three consecutive days of extensive heat has a significant adverse effect on individuals short-term morbidity. More so, our findings indicate a disparity between genders in relation to the impact of heatwaves. Finally, it can be suggested that individuals having to travel an extensive distance in order to access water are most affected by high temperatures. Chapter 3. Millions of people worldwide are married to their blood relatives, yet the resulting impact on offspring health continues to be debated. Within this paper, we provide evidence around this debate by studying the birth outcomes from a large, representative sample of Indian women in varying marital circumstances. We explore the impact of intra-family marriage on negative pregnancy outcomes including stillbirth, miscarriage, and child death after birth. We utilize an ordinary least squares model (OLS), which controls for a wide range of financial and family factors. The results show that being a woman related to her husband by blood increases the probability of experiencing negative pregnancy outcomes by 2.8 percentage points. Our finding is robust using the instrumental variable approach (IV). The instrumental variable represents the ambient level of violence against women, which positively affects the probability of consanguineous marriage. The IV approach leads to a slightly smaller adverse impact of 2.2 percentage points. In addition, the OLS results provide suggestive evidence that intra-family marriage has no heterogeneous impact across religion types.

Les prairies supra-forestières sont des écosystèmes bien représentés dans les milieux de montagne et qui s’avèrent vulnérables aux changements climatiques et aux modalités d’utilisation des terres. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif principal de cette thèse a été d’évaluer l’effet des forçages climatiques et du pastoralisme sur la végétation des prairies supra-forestières à différentes échelles spatio-temporelles. En particulier, nous avons cherché à comprendre les réponses des prairies à la variabilité interannuelle du climat (température et précipitation), aux tendances sur le long terme (réchauffement) et aux évènements extrêmes (vagues de chaleur et sécheresses) ; ainsi qu’aux modalités de la gestion pastorale (charges et calendriers de pâturage). Pour cela, nous avons réalisé des analyses sur un nombre de métriques phénologiques, météorologiques et pastorales. Les premières, dérivées principalement de l’indice de différence normalisée de la végétation (NDVI) à partir d’images satellite de moyenne (MODIS) et de haute résolution (Landsat et SPOT), ainsi que des données acquises au sol à la volée et en continu sur cinq alpages. Les deuxièmes, calculées à partir des ré-analyses du modèle climatique SAFRAN de Météo-France. Les troisièmes, estimées à partir des données des Enquêtes Pastorales régionales (1996-1997 et 2012-2014), et des cahiers d’alpage du dispositif Alpages Sentinelles. Concernant la végétation des prairies supra-forestières, nos résultats mettent en évidence : (i) des tendances au verdissement assez généralisées, (ii) des tolérances plus importantes aux vagues de chaleur qu’aux périodes de sécheresse estivales, (iii) des sensibilités plus importantes aux facteurs climatiques qu’aux pressions de pâturage, (iv) des réponses légères mais positives aux modalités de gestion pastoral, et (v) un potentiel de repousse en fin de saison. L’originalité de nos résultats a été de montrer l’existence de relations plus fortes entre les facteurs climatiques et la végétation des prairies, qu’entre cette dernière et le pâturage. Ils ont également éclairé les apports de l’utilisation de la télédétection dans l’étude de ces milieux. / Mountain grasslands are wide distributed ecosystems which are particularly vulnerable to climate and land use changes. In this context, the main objective of this thesis was to assess the effect of climate and pastoral drivers on mountain grasslands vegetation at different spatiotemporal scales. In particular, we wanted to understand plant responses to annual variations of climate (temperature and precipitation), long term warming and extreme events (heat waves and droughts); as well as the land management impact (grazing intensity and calendars). Hence, we performed several analyses using phenological, meteorological and pastoral metrics. First, we derived phenological metrics mainly from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) extracted from two sources: satellite remote sensing images at moderate (MODIS) and high (Landsat and SPOT) resolution and field remote sensing measures acquired with portable and fixed sensors over five mountain grasslands. Second, we estimated meteorological metrics from reanalysis of the climatic model SAFRAN provided by Météo France. Third, we estimated pastoral metrics from two regional pastoral surveys (1996-1997 and 2012-2014) and several local documents (“cahiers d’alpage”) produced within the project “Alpages Sentinelles”. Regarding mountain grasslands vegetation, our results showed: (i) widely distributed greening trends, (ii) higher tolerance to heat waves than to droughts, (iii) higher sensibility to climate factors than to grazing pressures, (iv) weak but positive responses to grazing, and (v) a regrowth potential at the end of the season. The originality of our results was to exhibit the stronger relationships between climate factors and vegetation phenology, than between the latter and grazing pressures. Moreover, we highlighted the important contributions of remote sensing data to study mountain ecosystems.

Two prominent factors posing a major threat to biodiversity in marine ecosystems are climate change and the establishment of invasive species, and the interaction between these two. Because of the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water, the coast of Portugal is a thermal refuge and distribution edge for cold-adapted species, making it a particularly important study area from a biodiversity point of view. In this study I investigated the physiological tolerance to heat stress of six different native and co-occurring non-native marine species, red algae; C. crispus and G. turuturu, brown algae; S.polyschides  and U. pinnatifida,  and mussels ; X.securis and M.galloprovincialis,  in the intertidal  rocky coast of Portugal. Dynamic ramping assays with four different durations and intensity of thermal stress was conducted for each specie to determine a so-called thermal death time (TDT) curve and the thermal tolerance parameters CTmax (the temperature that will cause death within one min) and z (the decrease in thermal decay over time) for each specie. To compare the thermal tolerance between the native vs non-native species a linear mixed effects model was applied. This study found a significantly higher thermal tolerance to extreme temperatures expressed as the upper critical temperature CTmax in the invasive red algae G. turuturu and mussel X.securis compared to its native counterparts C.crispus and M.galloprovincialis. The study found no significant difference in the thermal tolerance expressed for the kelp species S. polyschides and U.pinnatifida which had a similar response to the heat challenge. The implication from these the findings for the coast of Portugal, could be that the invasive algae and mussel might better survive an extreme event such as a heatwave then the co-occurring native, while the invasive kelp species would respond in a similar way to the heat challenge. Hence the invasive capacity might depend more on the invasion window after a stressful event and on how well the native species recover from a heat stress. The findings from this study call for further conservation, restoration and monitoring efforts in this area given the biodiversity supported by the important intertidal marine native species. Furthermore, management to avoid spread of the invasive mussel into the Portuguese. coast and limit further increase in abundance of the invasive algae species. These results are highly relevant for projections on how further climate changes might affect the invasive and native species at the coast of Portugal.

Il est généralement reconnu, par la communauté́ scientifique, que le risque de morbidité́ augmente lors des vagues de chaleur. On retrouve néanmoins des différences importantes en ce qui a trait à la vulnérabilité́ des populations au stress thermique. L'effet de la température sur la morbidité́ diffère selon plusieurs facteurs, dont l’âge. Pour des raisons physiologiques et comportementales, les enfants sont l’un des groupes les plus vulnérables aux vagues de chaleur (Hutter et al., 2007; Thompson et al., 2012). La présente étude vise à analyser l’influence de la vulnérabilité́ différentielle face aux problèmes de santé chez les enfants lors des vagues de chaleur à Ouagadougou. L’analyse de la vulnérabilité́ aux risques environnementaux rend compte des conditions de fragilité́ des individus pouvant mener à des expériences de souffrance et de dépendance à autrui. Ceci influence conséquemment la capacité à faire face aux catastrophes et à se rétablir (Becerra, 2012; Muttarak et al., 2015). Les données utilisées ont été́ recueillies par l’Observatoire de Population de Ouagadougou (OPO) de mars à mai 2017 lors d’une enquête sur la vulnérabilité́ et la capacité d'adaptation de la population de l'OPO aux vagues de chaleur. Ces données transversales regroupent un sous-échantillon aléatoire de 332 enfants de cinq ans et moins, habitant dans cinq quartiers de la périphérie nord de Ouagadougou. Nous les analysons tout d’abord à l’aide de tableaux croisés, de tests de chi-2 et d’une analyse factorielle. Des régressions logistiques ordinales permettent ensuite d’étudier la force et la significativité des associations entre la prévalence des symptômes lors des vagues de chaleur et les variables associées à la vulnérabilité climatique. L’analyse permet de relever des associations inattendues entre la prévalence de certains symptômes chez l’enfant lors des vagues de chaleur et plusieurs variables indépendantes. Par exemple, lorsque nous étudions les effets bruts des variables indépendantes sur la variable dépendante, nous constatons que les enfants dont la mère n’a pas tendance à apporter de l’aide supplémentaire aux très jeunes enfants lors des périodes de très forte chaleur sont plus susceptibles de ne pas présenter de symptôme(s) que de présenter des symptômes (OR = 0,60* (0,36 ; 1,01), à la limite du significatif de 10%), comparativement aux enfants ayant une mère apportant de l’aide supplémentaire. Nous notons également que les enfants dont le toit de chambre est isolé ou construit avec du ciment / béton (dalle) sont plus susceptibles de manifester des symptômes lors des vagues de chaleur que de ne pas en manifester (OR = 1,68* (0,97 ; 2,91), à la limite du significatif de 10%), en comparaison aux enfants dont le toit de chambre est fait de tôle galvanisée / métal / fer-blanc / zinc. Néanmoins, ces résultats sont très faiblement significatifs (seuil de 10%) à partir d’un échantillon de petite taille. Ainsi, le fait que les résultats sont à la limite du significatif à 10% nous amène à interpréter de manière prudente l’existence des liens entre ces variables. Dans l’explication de ces résultats, nous soupçonnons la présence de biais dans l’auto-déclaration des symptômes. Les limites des données incluent l’auto-déclaration des symptômes, la petite taille de l’échantillon, la nature transversale des données ainsi que la présence de biais de rappel liée aux problèmes de mémoire. Compte tenu de ces limites méthodologiques, il serait nécessaire de confirmer les résultats obtenus dans de futures recherches. Néanmoins, ces résultats pourront contribuer à orienter de futures recherches sur l’effet des vagues de chaleur chez les enfants au Sahel. / It is generally recognized by the scientific community that the risk of morbidity increases during heatwaves. However, there are important differences in regard to the vulnerability of populations to increased temperatures. The effect of temperature on morbidity differs depending on several factors, including age. Children are one of the most vulnerable groups when it comes to heatwaves due to physiological and behavioral reasons (Hutter et al., 2007; Thompson et al., 2012). This study aims to analyze the influence of differential vulnerability on children’s health during heatwaves in Ouagadougou. The analysis of vulnerability on environmental risks takes into account the fragile conditions of individuals that can lead to experiences of suffering and dependence on others. Consequently, it influences the capacity to cope with and recover from disasters (Becerra, 2012; Muttarak et al., 2015). The data used were collected by the Ouagadougou Population Observatory (OPO) from March to May 2017 during a survey on the vulnerability and adaptability of the OPO population to heatwaves. The cross-sectional data brings together a random subsample of 332 children aged five and under, living in five neighborhoods in the northern outskirts of Ouagadougou. We first analyze them using crosstabs, chi-2 tests and factor analysis. Ordinal logistic regressions are then performed to study the strength and significance of the associations between the prevalence of symptoms during heatwaves and the variables associated with climatic vulnerability. Descriptive analysis reveals unexpected associations between the prevalence of certain symptoms in children during heatwaves and several independent variables. An in-depth analysis carried out with the use of ordinal logistic regressions shows that the results do not support our initial hypotheses. For example, when we study the gross effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable, we found that children with mothers who do not tend to provide extra help to very young children during intense periods of heat are more likely to be symptom-free than to have symptoms (OR = 0.60 * (0,36 ; 1,01), at the significant limit of 10%), compared to children with mothers who provide extra help. We also note that children whose room roof is insulated or built with cement / concrete (slab) are more likely to show symptoms during heat waves than to not show symptoms (OR = 1.68 * (0,97 ; 2,91), at the significant limit of 10%), compared to children whose room roof is made of galvanized sheet metal / metal / tinplate / zinc. Nevertheless, these results are very weakly significant (10% threshold) from a small sample size. Thus, the fact that the results are at the limit of significance at 10% leads us to interpret the existence of links between these variables cautiously. In an attempt to explain these results, we suspect that there is a bias in the self-reported symptoms. Data limitations include self-reporting of symptoms, small sample size, the cross-sectional nature of the data, and the presence of recall bias related to memory problems. Given these methodological limitations, it would be necessary to confirm our results with those obtained in future research. However, the results obtained may help guide future research about the effect of heatwaves on children’s health in Sahel.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / During a 2011 summer dominated by headlines about an earthquake and a hurricane along the East Coast, extreme heat that silently killed scores of Americans largely went unnoticed by the media and public. However, despite a violent spasm of tornadic activity that claimed over 500 lives during the spring of the same year, heat-related mortality annually ranks as the top cause of death incident to weather. Two major data groups used in researching vulnerability to extreme heat events (EHE) include socioeconomic indicators of risk and factors incident to urban living environments. Socioeconomic determinants such as household income levels, age, race, and others can be analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) when formatted as vector data, while environmental factors such as land surface temperature are often measured via raster data retrieved from satellite sensors. The current research sought to combine the insights of both types of data in a comprehensive examination of heat susceptibility using knowledge-based classification. The use of knowledge classifiers is a non-parametric approach to research involving the creation of decision trees that seek to classify units of analysis by whether they meet specific rules defining the phenomenon being studied. In this extreme heat vulnerability study, data relevant to the deadly July 1995 heat wave in Chicago’s Cook County was incorporated into decision trees for 13 different experimental conditions. Populations vulnerable to heat were identified in five of the 13 conditions, with predominantly low-income African-American communities being particularly at-risk. Implications for the results of this study are given, along with direction for future research in the area of extreme heat event vulnerability.

Denna rapport utforskar effekterna av värmeböljor i urbana miljöer och utforskar användningen av olika stadsplaneringsverktyg för att mildra dessa effekter. Värmestress och värmerelaterade sjukdomar är betydande risker som orsakas av stigande temperaturer i städer, därmed analyseras gröna, blå och gråa lösningar i syfte att minska uppkomsten av värmeböljor i stadsmiljöer och därmed även minska dessa risker. Studien bygger på en omfattande litteraturstudie samt en fallstudie av Hornsbergskvarteren i Stockholm där en intervju även genomfördes med viktiga nyckelpersoner. Resultaten från studien pekar på att en kombination av gröna, blåa och gråa lösningar kan samverka för att minska temperaturen i stadsmiljöer. Gröna lösningar som parker, trädplanteringar, gröna tak och väggar kan bidra till att sänka temperaturen men också förbättra luftkvaliteten i städer, vilket skapar hälsosammare levnadsmiljöer. Blåa lösningar inkluderar olika vattenfunktioner i städer där denna studie främst fokuserat på effekterna av sjöar, dammar, kanaler och bäckar. Blåa lösningar har visat sig ha varierande effekter för temperaturregleringen i urbana miljöer, vilket indikerar att ytterligare undersökning är nödvändig för att förstå dess fulla effekt. Två aspekter som inte togs i beaktning under litteraturstudien men som uppkom som potentiella blåa lösningar under fallstudien var fontäner samt potentiella lösningar för fördröjning av regnvatten. Effekterna av dessa kan vidare utforskas i framtida studier för att ge en helhetsbild av blåa lösningars effekter i urbana miljöer. Gråa lösningar, såsom användningen av reflekterande material har visat sig bidra till att skapa svalare städer. Sammantaget pekar resultaten på att en tillämpning av gröna, blåa och gråa lösningar är viktiga för att hantera värmeböljor och mildra dess effekter, främst risken för hälsorelaterade problem. Dessa planeringsverktyg är viktiga för att främja hållbar utveckling och skapa resilienta städer. / This report explores the effects of heatwaves in urban environments and examines the use of various urban planning tools to mitigate these effects. Heat stress and heat-related diseases are significant risks caused by rising temperatures in cities, therefore, green, blue, and gray solutions are analyzed to reduce these risks in urban areas. The study is based on a literature review and a case study of the Hornsberg area in Stockholm, on which an interview was also conducted. The results from the study suggest that a combination of green, blue, and gray solutions can work together to reduce temperatures in urban environments. Green solutions such as parks, trees, green roofs and walls can help to lower temperatures but also improve air quality in cities, creating healthier living environments. Blue solutions include various water features in cities, where this study primarily focused on the effects of lakes, ponds, canals and streams. Blue solutions have shown varying effects on temperature regulation in urban environments, which means that further investigation is necessary to understand their full impact. Two aspects not considered during the literature review but which emerged as potential solutions during the case study, were fountains and rainwater retention basins. For these solutions, further studies need to be reviewed. Gray solutions, such as the use of reflective materials, have proven to contribute to cooler cities. Overall, the results indicate that the integration of green, blue, and gray solutions is important for managing heatwaves and mitigating their effects, primarily the risk of health-related issues. These planning tools are important for sustainable development and creating resilient cities.

The terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles are tightly coupled through land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions, not only regulating local plant physiological activities and also modulating regional and global climate. With ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, many of these interactions can be modified and complicated. To better anticipate and adapt to future climate, it is of great importance and necessity to deepen and refine our understanding of the complex L-A interactions. In this dissertation, three topics are investigated across the ecosystem, regional and global scales respectively, throughout which, the critical role of dryness or drying in the context of global warming is highlighted. 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝟏: Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component that connects the continental water, carbon and energy cycles and a proxy that measures the coupling strength between the biosphere and atmosphere. A wide range of biophysical factors, which usually exhibit nonlinearity and strong covariation, collectively modulate ET and complicate the overall understanding of ET dynamics. In the first study, the causal discovery frameworks PCMCI+ and Latent PCMCI are utilized with integrated priori physical knowledge to identify the dominant drivers and constraints of ET in the growing seasons across sites, with a particular focus on the role of site dryness degree. The Dryness Index (DI), defined as the ratio of annual mean net radiation to precipitation, has been introduced to assess the water availability relative to energy supply at different locations. By analyzing the daily observations from 115 flux tower sites and satellite remote sensing, it has been discovered that the feedbacks around ET are mediated by the degree of dryness: at sites with adequate water supply (using PCMCI+, the DI value averaged from such sites is 1.33), the atmospheric conditions, including incoming solar radiation and atmospheric demand for water (indicated by vapor pressure deficit, VPD), prevail in driving ET; in contrast, in semi-arid and arid areas where the water stress is high (using PCMCI+, the DI value averaged from such sites is 3.32), soil water content is the primary factor to constrain ET due to the plant regulation of stomatal conductance as part of the water conservation strategy. Additionally, as DI increases across sites, the sign of the contemporaneous causal relationship between VPD and ET can reverse from positive—indicating that atmospheric demand for water drives ET—to negative—reflecting that plant stomatal closure limits ET in response to the dryer atmosphere. 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝟐: As summer heatwaves and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense, such as in Western Europe, there is a growing interest in unraveling the physical mechanisms behind their occurrences and their changes. Soil desiccation is critical for the intensification and propagation of heatwaves, but its relative importance compared to other well-known large-scale atmospheric mechanisms, such as persistent atmospheric blocking systems and horizontal warm advection, remains elusive, especially in the context of a changing climate. In the second study, we utilize machine learning along with intervention experiments to estimate the respective contributions of soil water content 𝐶_𝑠𝑤𝑐 and atmospheric circulation 𝐶_𝑎𝑡𝑚 to daily maximum temperature in Western Europe, with a particular focus on the 2022 summer events. Our results reveal that during the two unparalleled heatwave events that occurred in June and July of 2022, the impact 𝐶_𝑠𝑤𝑐 on the heatwave intensity was on average approximately 40% of 𝐶_𝑎𝑡𝑚, and was comparable to 𝐶_𝑎𝑡𝑚 in continental dry-to-wet transition regions. Reviewing heatwaves in recent three decades, the percentage of heatwave areas that are significantly influenced by soil moisture-air temperature coupling has increased by 11.4% per decade. Additionally, for regions that have experienced heatwaves in at least 5 out of the past 33 years, about 21.7% areas, mostly in the transition zones, witness a significant increase in 𝐶_𝑠𝑤𝑐; while only 2.5% exhibit a substantial increase in 𝐶_𝑎𝑡𝑚. Furthermore, we find within the transitional climates, the intensification of heat extremes is mainly resulted from soil moisture depletion rather than atmospheric anomalies; while in (dry) Spain and the (wet) northern areas of central Europe, it is the variations in atmospheric circulation and soil desiccation that jointly fuel the persistent heatwaves. Our study emphasizes the observation-based large and increasing importance of soil moisture coupling in intensifying summer heatwaves and provides insights into future climates in extra-tropical regions like Western Europe, where a warmer and drier future is projected. 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝟑: Earth system models (ESMs) and climate simulations are extensively employed to study the dynamics of climate and project long-term changes in the climate system. Despite their widespread use, large uncertainties persist among these models regarding the estimation of the continental gross primary productivity (GPP) and land carbon sink, which compromise the reliability of projections concerning future atmospheric carbon dioxide (𝐶𝑂₂) concentrations and the assessment of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to and might mitigate some of global warming. In ESMs, convection and clouds are one major source of such uncertainties—they are not only the most uncertain factors in the modeling of ``physical'' climate and also significantly affect the land carbon cycle through complex interactions involving radiation, moisture, and thermal pathways. In the third study, to isolate the role of clouds on the terrestrial carbon cycle, two models—the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its super-parameterized counterpart (SPCESM, abbreviated as SP), which only differ in their representation of convection and clouds, are analyzed under present-day climatology to assess the impact of cloud representations on GPP. Compared with CESM, SP shows a 12.8% decrease in total cloud fraction within the 60°𝑆 ∼ 60°𝑁 range, which results in a notable GPP decline of 5.6 𝑃𝑔𝐶 𝑦𝑟⁻¹. This divergence, equivalent to 4.4% of terrestrial GPP in CESM, is comparable to the inter-annual variability in GPP and the uncertainty of GPP observed across climate models with diverse representations, extending beyond just cloud-related processes. Further analysis decomposes the GPP divergence between CESM and SP into two additive components and demonstrates that three-quarters of the difference is attributed to the negative impact from reduced cloud cover on light use efficiency (LUE) from CESM to SP, while the remaining one quarter is due to the positive impact from enhanced photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). An explainable machine learning model equipped with SHAP values further identifies two primary mechanisms underlying the lower LUE estimation in SP. Firstly, diminished clouds lead to higher air temperatures and reduced precipitation, creating a drier environment that prompts plants to regulate stomatal conductance to minimize water loss through transpiration, thereby suppressing the exchange rate of 𝐶𝑂₂ between biosphere and atmosphere. Secondly, the reduction in diffused radiation restricts the photosynthesis of shaded leaves. Combined, these two mechanisms reduce plant LUE, outweigh the beneficial impacts of increased PAR on photosynthesis, and ultimately lead to the declined terrestrial biosphere productivity in SP. Overall, we identify the representation of clouds as a key process for the terrestrial carbon cycle.