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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
131

Identidades em jogo: duplo mal-estar das professoras e das coordenadoras pedagógicas do Ensino Fundamental I na constante construção de seus papéis / Identities at stake: double ill-feeling of Primary School teachers and pedagogic coordinators in the construction of their roles

Patricia Rossi Torralba Horta 15 May 2007 (has links)
O objetivo do presente estudo, de cunho teórico-analítico, configura-se como uma tentativa de compreensão da forma pela qual se estabeleceram, no Brasil, as identidades profissionais das professoras de primeiras letras e das coordenadoras pedagógicas, mutuamente referidas, e o mal-estar decorrente das modalidades pelas quais se instituíram, com as reformas educacionais, suas competências desejáveis mediante diferentes descrições das respectivas funções. Na busca de entender teoricamente como se produzem essas identidades nas estruturas hierárquicas das instituições escolares, os aportes teóricos de Foucault forneceram ferramentas úteis para problematizar os saberes vigentes e compreender como certos saberes são desqualificados nas relações de poder. A compreensão de Foucault acerca da relação entre saber e poder, principalmente, possibilita outras leituras dos discursos pedagógicos, acumulados e veiculados como verdades, que permeiam a construção das identidades dessas profissionais. A análise sociológica de Bauman, por sua vez, ajuda a elucidar o presente em que estamos imersos, que ele chama de modernidade \"leve\" e \"líquida\" e, assim, torna possível entender as redistribuições e realocações dos poderes e os novos padrões de dependência na instituição escolar, apesar de o discurso pedagógico dominante aparentemente convocar \"autodeterminação\" e \"liberdade\" como características centrais da constituição dessas identidades em estudo. A presente investigação busca, dessa forma, primeiramente elucidar no Brasil o percurso histórico da profissão de professora das primeiras letras e assim compreender como se configuraram as estruturas hierárquicas, isto é, a \"função supervisora\" nas reformas educacionais das décadas de 20 e 30, caracterizada pela inspiração empresarial na administração escolar e pela instituição da figura do especialista em novos métodos de ensino. É realizada a seguir a análise de quatro volumes da coleção O Coordenador pedagógico, organizada por Vera Nigro de Souza Placco e Laurinda Ramalho de Almeida, publicada a partir de 1998, escolhida pelo elevado número de edições, o que demonstra sua aprovação pelo público. A coleção possibilita o acesso a alguns dos principais discursos que norteiam a constituição da identidade desses profissionais. Os artigos aí presentes são resultados, na sua maioria, de dissertações de teses e de pesquisas de avaliação de projetos implementados na rede pública ou particular. Como conclusão, observa-se que os discursos educacionais em geral enfatizam a constituição de profissionais \"autônomos\", \"críticos\" e \"reflexivos\". Imersos nesse discurso homogeneizante e sofisticado nas suas propostas de auto-exame, no entanto, tanto professores como coordenadores paradoxalmente vão limitando as possibilidades de pensar e de constituir suas identidades. Uma possível ação questionadora seria a de duvidar desse lugar idealizado nas descrições da função dos coordenadores pedagógicos, que definem missões impossíveis, lugar em que, na maioria das vezes, são vistos como detentores de uma consciência crítica embasada nos conhecimentos da ciência, e capazes de constituir professores \"autônomos\" e \"reflexivos\". Duvidar, assim, dessa relação, quando ela se estabelece pela necessidade da tutela desse especialista, a fim de buscar outras formas de relação que permitam de fato que as professoras das primeiras letras possam se desenvolver enquanto profissionais. / This study aims at attempting to comprehend the way the professional identities of primary school teachers and pedagogic coordinators has been established in Brazil and the subsequent ill-feeling originated by the educational restructuring of their competencies in the light of their new roles. The search for the understanding of how these identities are constructed in the hierarchical structure of schools can be backed up by Foucault-based theories that provide useful tools for analyzing the present kinds of knowledge, at the same time that it helps understand how they can be disqualified before unequal encounters. Foucault\'s understanding of the relationship between power and knowledge makes it possible to envisage different interpretations of the pedagogical discourse which has been established and passed on as truths that permeate the make-up of the identity of a teaching professional. Bauman\'s sociological approach, in turn, helps to elucidate the present scenario where we are, which he named \"light\" and \"liquid\" modernity. Such suggested approach makes it possible to understand the redistributions and allocations of the powers and the new patterns of dependence at the educational institution, despite the fact that the dominant pedagogical discourse seems to capitalize on \"self-determination\" and \"freedom\" as central characteristics in the construction of the identities under investigation. Thus, the present study seeks to elucidate, from a historical perspective, the path of the primary school teacher as a means to shed some light on how the hierarchical relations came to be, namely that of the \"supervisor\" in the educational restructuring of the 20\'s and 30?\'s. The referred restructuring seems to have been highly influenced by the entrepreneurial spirit present in school administration trends and by the institution of a specialist in the new teaching methods. Four volumes of the series O Coordenador Pedagógico (the Pedagogic Coordinatior) published as of 1998 and organized by Vera Nigro de Souza Placco and Laurinda Ramalho de Almeida are chosen and analyzed due to the significant number of editions, which seems to be indicative of its approval by the target audience. This collection makes it possible to have access to some of the main discourse samples that guide the identity construction of the professionals of the area. Most of the articles therein result from theses, dissertations and research on the evaluation of projects implemented in private and public educational institutions. As a conclusion, it is possible to observe that the educational discourse, in general, emphasizes the construction of \"autonomous\", \"critical\" and \"reflexive\" professionals. Given the homogenous and sophisticated nature of such discourse, filled with self-analysis proposals, both teachers and coordinators limit their possibilities of thinking and constructing their identities. One possible approach to this paradox would be to dispute the idealization of the role of the pedagogical coordinator that defines impossible missions and appears to be the bearer of a critical conscience that, based on scientific background, is capable of educating teachers to be \"autonomous\" and \"reflexive\". This way, disputing this relation may bring in new possibilities of relationships and approaches to allow the primary school teachers to develop as professionals.
132

Implantação de postos de atendimento em uma rede de serviços hierarquicos / Implantation of ranks of attendance in a network of hierarchical services

Verroni, Rodrigo Eduardo Dias 03 September 2006 (has links)
Orientador: Orlando Fontes Lima Junior / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-07T10:44:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Verroni_RodrigoEduardoDias_M.pdf: 1562833 bytes, checksum: 7a98b8ffa353b6165a3b4e06de1a640d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: Neste trabalho é apresentada uma aplicação de solução para o problema de implantação de instalações hierárquicas. Este modelo foi aplicado a um caso hipotético de localização de uma rede de mercados na cidade de Campinas, no qual são elaborados cenários distintos com relação aos raios de influência das instalações. A localização dos centros de atendimento será obtida como solução de um problema de máxima cobertura, no qual o objetivo é maximizar a população atendida pelos serviços oferecidos. Na revisão bibliográfica foram identificados os principais métodos matemáticos disponíveis na literatura e selecionado o de localização de instalações hierárquicas de dois níveis apresentado por ESPEJO (2001). A partir dos resultados obtidos é efetuada ainda uma discussão sobre a variação da demanda atendida em relação aos raios de cobertura das instalações. Concluiu-se que o modelo selecionado apresenta resultados consistentes para o problema proposto e que a variação dos raios de influência alteram a localização das instalações / Abstract: This paper proposes a solution for the hierarchical facilities implementation problem. The hypothetical case application of the model is the location of a market network in the city of Campinas, in which different sceneries are elaborated in relation to the facilities rays of influence. The service center location is obtained as a solution for the maximum covering problem, in which the objective is to maximize the population assisted by the supplied services. The bibliographic revision identifies the main mathematical methods available in the literature. The two levels hierarchical facilities location model developed by ESPEJO (2001) was selected as the main method to be implemented in this paper. It is concluded that the selected model presents consistent results for the proposed problem, and that the variation of the values of the rays of influence modifies the localization of the facilities / Mestrado / Transportes / Mestre em Engenharia Civil
133

De ansiktslösa i hopplöshetens fördärv : En kritisk diskursanalys av nyhetsmediers samhällsdebatt om gängkriminaliteten i Sverige / The faceless in the destruction of hopelessness : A critical discourse analysis of news media’s social debate about gang criminality in Sweden

Rosati Örsell, Julia January 2021 (has links)
Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka och analysera hur personer i gängkriminella miljöer konstrueras samt positioneras i den nyhetsmediala samhällsdebatten om gängkriminalitet i Sverige genom att studera publicerade debattartiklar från en specifik tidsperiod. Studien utgår från ett kritiskt diskursanalytiskt perspektiv som menar att verkligheten formas och tolkas genom språkliga diskurser, varför valda analysverktyg har ett lingvistiskt fokus där texternas lexikala aspekter undersöks, liksom deras anspråk på gängkriminalitetens orsaker och lösningar. Vidare analyseras debattartiklarnas innehåll genom ett socialkonstruktionistiskt perspektiv på de skildringar och identiteter som görs, samt utifrån teorier om stigmatiseringsprocesser och avvikarkarriärer Även själva fördelningen mellan debattörer samt presenterade perspektiv i debatten analyseras i relation till sociala makthierarkier. Uppsatsens resultat visar på att personer i gängkriminella miljöer främst tenderar att reduceras till deras kriminella egenskap i debatten, vilket konstruerar personerna som avvikare och förövare i samhället på sätt som stundtals får avhumaniserande effekter. I vissa fall nämns även personernas unga ålder samt icke-svenska etnicitet, vilket främst motiverar till förslag på ökade disciplinära åtgärder mot unga samt personer som saknar medborgarskap. Vidare präglas en stor del av debatten av ett fokus gentemot polisiära resurser och skärpta straff, vilket verkar osynliggörande för gängkriminalitetens bakomliggande sociala faktorer samt det sociala arbetets betydelse. Detta får även konsekvenser för personernas sörjbarhet samt ansedda rätt till sociala stödinsatser som fokuserar på förändring. I de fall sociala aspekter faktiskt diskuteras i debatten tenderar en sorts osynlig tröskel skapas mellan ”den unga som sörjbar” och ”den kriminella som straffbar” – vilket möjliggör till att vidmakthålla identiteterna "offer" och "förövare" i skildringarna på ett sätt som gör att problemets komplexitet undviks. / The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze how people within gang criminal environments is constructed and positioned in news media’s social debate about gang criminality in Sweden by studying published debate articles from a specific time period. The study is based on a critical discourse analytical perspective on reality as shaped and interpreted by linguistic discourses, why selected analysis tools has a linguistic aim that investigate the texts lexical aspects, as their claims on causes and solutions of gang crime. Furthermore the debate articles are analyzed through a social constructionist perspective on the descriptions and identities that is made, and also by theories about stigmatization processes and deviant careers. The division between debaters and represented perspectives is also analyzed in relation to social hierarchies of power. The result of the study shows that people in gang criminal environments mainly tend to be reduced to their criminal quality, which constructs them as deviants and perpetrators by ways that sometimes have dehumanizing effects. In some cases the persons young age and non-swedish ethnicity is mentioned, which mainly justifies proposals for increased disciplinary actions against youths and people without swedish citizenship. Further, the debate is characterized by a focus towards police resources and increased penalties which tend to overshadow the underlying social factors of gang crime and the importance of social work. This has consequences for their considered worth of sympathy and rights to social support that focuses on change. When social aspects is discussed it tends to create a invisible gap between ”the youth worthy of sympathy” and ”the punishable criminal” – which enable to maintain the identities of “victims” and “perpetrators” in a way that avoids the complexity of the problem.
134

Les céréales et les produits céréaliers au Moyen Empire. Histoire technique et économique / Cereal and cereals Products in the Middle Kingdom. Technical and Economic History

Bats, Adeline 17 December 2019 (has links)
Cette thèse de doctorat, intitulée « Les céréales et les produits céréaliers au Moyen Empire. Histoire technique et économique » a pour objectif d’appréhender le rôle des céréales dans l’alimentation humaine, mais également de s’interroger sur la capacité de l’agriculture céréalière à dégager des excédents et par conséquent des richesses à l’origine d’une différentiation sociale. Les céréales cultivées durant le Moyen Empire, à savoir l’orge commune et le blé amidonnier, ont été introduites en Égypte en provenance du Proche-Orient durant le Néolithique. Ces deux plantes volontairement sélectionnées sont, comme les techniques agraires, adaptées à l’environnement nilotique. Après la récolte, les céréales sont entreposées dans différentes structures conformes aux besoins futurs. Le silo permet la conservation sur le long terme et par conséquent l’épargne, en prévision de pénuries alimentaires mais également dans le but d’accumuler de la richesse. Car, si la culture des céréales est destinée à subvenir en grande partie aux besoins alimentaires des Égyptiens, les terres agraires, les stocks et les produits transformés (pain et bière) servent également comme moyens de paiement. Enfin, ces biens sont employés aussi pour entretenir les liens de dépendances et les fidélités politiques. / Entitled "Cereal and cereals Products in the Middle Kingdom. Technical and Economic History", this PhD thesis aims to understand the role of cereals in human nutrition, but also to examine the capacity of cereal agriculture to generate surpluses and consequently wealth, which is the source of social differentiation. Cereals grown during the Middle Kingdom, namely barley and emmer, were introduced into Egypt from the Near East during the Neolithic period. These two deliberately selected plants are, like agrarian techniques, adapted to the Nilotic environment. After harvest, the cereals are stored in different structures in accordance with future needs. The silo allows long-term conservation and therefore savings, in anticipation of food shortages but also in order to accumulate wealth. Because, if the cultivation of cereals is intended to provide a large part of the Egyptians’ food needs, agrarian land, stocks and processed products (bread and beer) are also used as means of payment. Finally, these assets are also used to maintain dependency and political loyalty.
135

Théorie de champ-moyen et dynamique des systèmes quantiques sur réseau / Mean-field theory and dynamics of lattice quantum systems

Rouffort, Clément 10 December 2018 (has links)
Cette thèse est dédiée à l'étude mathématique de l'approximation de champ-moyen des gaz de bosons. En physique quantique une telle approximation est vue comme la première approche permettant d'expliquer le comportement collectif apparaissant dans les systèmes quantiques à grand nombre de particules et illustre des phénomènes fondamentaux comme la condensation de Bose-Einstein et la superfluidité. Dans cette thèse, l'exactitude de l'approximation de champ-moyen est obtenue de manière générale comme seule conséquence de principes de symétries et de renormalisations d'échelles. Nous recouvrons l'essentiel des résultats déjà connus sur le sujet et de nouveaux sont prouvés, particulièrement pour les systèmes quantiques sur réseau, incluant le modèle de Bose-Hubbard. D'autre part, notre étude établit un lien entre les équations aux hiérarchies de Gross-Pitaevskii et de Hartree, issues des méthodes BBGKY de la physique statistique, et certaines équations de transport ou de Liouville dans des espaces de dimension infinie. Résultant de cela, les propriétés d'unicité pour de telles équations aux hiérarchies sont prouvées en toute généralité utilisant seulement les caractéristiques génériques de problèmes aux valeurs initiales liés à de telles équations. Egalement, de nouveaux résultats de caractères bien posés et un contre-exemple à l'unicité d'une hiérarchie de Gross-Pitaevskii sont prouvés. L’originalité de nos travaux réside dans l'utilisation d'équations de Liouville et de puissantes techniques de transport étendues à des espaces fonctionnels de dimension infinie et jointes aux mesures de Wigner, ainsi qu'à une approche utilisant les outils de la seconde quantification. Notre contribution peut être vue comme l'aboutissement d'idées initiées par Z. Ammari, F. Nier et Q. Liard autour de la théorie de champ-moyen. / This thesis is dedicated to the mathematical study of the mean-field approximation of Bose gases. In quantum physics such approximation is regarded as the primary approach explaining the collective behavior appearing in large quantum systems and reflecting fundamental phenomena as the Bose-Einstein condensation and superfluidity. In this thesis, the accuracy of the mean-field approximation is proved in full generality as a consequence only of scaling and symmetry principles. Essentially all the known results in the subject are recovered and new ones are proved specifically for quantum lattice systems including the Bose-Hubbard model. On the other hand, our study sets a bridge between the Gross-Pitaevskii and Hartree hierarchies related to the BBGKY method of statistical physics with certain transport or Liouville's equations in infinite dimensional spaces. As an outcome, the uniqueness property for these hierarchies is proved in full generality using only generic features of some related initial value problems. Again, several new well-posedness results as well as a counterexample to uniqueness for the Gross-Pitaevskii hierarchy equation are proved. The originality in our works lies in the use of Liouville's equations and powerful transport techniques extended to infinite dimensional functional spaces together with Wigner probability measures and a second quantization approach. Our contributions can be regarded as the culmination of the ideas initiated by Z. Ammari, F. Nier and Q. Liard in the mean-field theory.
136

Makten över musiken : En kvalitativ analys av kvinnors ställning i musikbranschen / The Power Over the Music : A Qualitative Analysis of Women's Position in the Music Industry

Lerman, Jennifer January 2020 (has links)
Uppsatsen undersöker hur könsfördelningen i musikbranschen ser ut. En fallstudie av skivbolaget Sony Music Sweden görs och undersöker hur könsfördelningen i bolaget ser ut och om det finns några specifika avdelningar som sticker ut i den aspekten. Studien undersöker också vad denna könsfördelning men även eventuella strukturer och hierarkier inom bolaget skulle kunna ha för påverkan på musikbranschen i stort. För att kunna genomföra detta görs en analys av materialet från Sony främst utifrån begreppet gatekeeping men även utifrån feministisk teori, genusteori och begreppet jämställdhet. Material från Musikbranschpodden analyseras utifrån samma teorier för att bidra med en bredare överblick av musikbranschen och dess aktörer och för att få en uppfattning om hur dessa aktörer menar att könsfördelning, strukturer och hierarkier eventuellt påverkar branschen. Ett av studiens största fynd är att ett företag kan se jämställt ut i teorin men att det sedan ändå ofta kan vara snedfördelat inom olika yrkesgrupper eller avdelningar.
137

Envier ou admirer les plus compétents? : une perspective évolutionnaire sur deux émotions liées au statut de prestige

Claude, Pauline 01 1900 (has links)
Le statut social humain dépend beaucoup du prestige, une forme de respect accordée de façon consentie aux individus jugés les plus compétents (les experts). Mais comment expliquer ce phénomène, inédit chez les primates ? J’aborde cette question en explorant les fondements émotionnels du lien entre la compétence et le statut social par le biais d’une approche évolutionnaire. Plus particulièrement, je teste l’hypothèse que l’envie et l’admiration sont deux émotions qui sous-tendent l’octroi de prestige et que leur expression est régulée par des programmes neurobiologiques mis en place par la sélection naturelle pour répondre à des enjeux compétitifs et coopératifs inhérents aux experts. Cette hypothèse est issue d’un modèle développé par Henrich et Gil-White (2001), selon lequel l’avènement de la culture humaine aurait créé un environnement où les experts représentent à la fois des rivaux pour le statut et des partenaires de coopération. Bien que ce modèle soit cohérent avec bon nombre de caractéristiques propres à l’envie et à l’admiration, il demeure limité quand il s’agit de prédire leurs patrons d’expression. À l’aide des données issues de la psychologie classique, j’en propose une version ajustée qui en conserve les principes de base, mais dans laquelle l’expression des deux émotions dépend de ce que j’appelle la valeur sociale de l’expert, à savoir ses qualités globales en tant que partenaire social (valeur coopérative) ou en tant que rival (valeur compétitive). Après avoir identifié une douzaine de facteurs affectant la valeur sociale, je mets à l’épreuve le modèle ajusté en testant l’hypothèse que les experts sont soit enviés ou admirés lorsque leurs valeurs compétitives ou coopératives sont respectivement élevées. Pour cela, j’utilise des données récoltées par l’entremise d’un questionnaire en ligne, dans lequel les participants étaient invités à décrire une situation impliquant un expert et ayant suscité chez eux de l’envie ou de l’admiration. D’une façon générale, les résultats de la présente étude ne permettent pas de tirer des conclusions fermes quant à la validité du modèle ajusté. Ils permettent néanmoins d’affirmer que ce modèle est approprié pour rendre compte des patrons d’expression de l’envie et de l’admiration et qu’il mérite d’être davantage exploré pour expliquer le lien entre la compétence et le prestige. Par exemple, les participants admiratifs figuraient parmi ceux qui attribuaient le plus de confiance en la disposition de coopérer des experts. Les participants envieux figuraient quant à eux parmi ceux ayant le plus décrit d’experts dont l’âge et le sexe les rendent plus à même d’être en compétition pour le statut. En étant en adéquation avec des prédictions issues d’un modèle construit à partir de la théorie de l’évolution, les résultats de cette étude appuient l’idée que les comportements humains répondent à des contraintes biologiques, et illustrent l’importance pour l’anthropologie d’intégrer l’approche évolutionnaire pour étudier les phénomènes sociaux complexes. / Human social status depends largely on prestige, a form of deference freely conferred to individuals that are deemed to be highly competent (i.e. experts). I attempt to explain this peculiar phenomenon, absent in other primates, by exploring the emotional and evolutionary underpinnings of the relationship between competence and status. More specifically, I test the hypothesis that prestige relies on envy and admiration and that these emotions are regulated by neurobiological adaptations selected to solve competitive and cooperative problems regarding experts. This hypothesis is based on a model developed by Henrich and Gil-White (2001), according to which, the evolution of human culture created an environment where experts represent both rivals for status and cooperation partners. Although consistent with many characteristics of envy and admiration, Henrich and Gil-White’s model does not provide the necessary framework to predict their manifestation. I propose an adjusted version to address the issue by using data from psychology research. This adjusted model follows the same fundamental principles as its original version, but adds the idea that the expression of envy and admiration depends on an expert’s social value. This value reflects the expert’s overall qualities as an ally (i.e. cooperative value) or as a threat to one’s status (i.e. competitive value). After identifying a dozen factors affecting an individual’s social value, I examine the adjusted model’s validity by challenging the idea that experts are either envied or admired when their competitive or cooperative values are respectively high. To that end, I use original data collected via an online questionnaire, in which participants were asked to describe a past event involving an expert who triggered envy or admiration. Overall, firm conclusions on the model’s validity cannot be drawn from this study alone. The provided results are nevertheless reliable enough to confirm its relevance as an explanation of the expression patterns of envy and admiration, and that the model deserves to be investigated further. For instance, admiring participants trusted significantly more the experts’ willingness to cooperate. Conversely, envious participants were more inclined to report experts whose age and sex made them more likely to be status threatening. By being congruent with evolutionary-based predictions, the results of this study demonstrate that human behaviour responds to biological constraints, and then, underscores the importance for anthropology of incorporating the evolutionary framework to study complex social phenomena.
138

Indexing and Dialectical Transcendence: Kenneth Burke's Critical Method

Isaksen, David Erland 13 March 2012 (has links)
Kenneth Burke has been described as arguably the most important rhetorician and critical theorist of the twentieth century, and yet an important part of his scholarship has been generally overlooked by the academic community. The pentad has become the most prominent "Burkean" framework for analyzing texts, yet Kenneth Burke himself preferred "a more direct" way of approaching texts which he named "indexing." This thesis recreates this method from the pieces found in his scholarly writing, personal correspondence, and the papers his students produced for the class he taught at Bennington College. Kenneth Burke believed indexing could uncover the "pattern of experience" or "motivational structures" a text embodies, and thereby help people become aware of the persuasive power different texts have. The method of indexing has two parts: 1. Finding the implicit equations in a text, and 2. Tracking the hierarchies of terms and God-terms in those equations. Identifying equations in a text starts with finding "key terms" in a text, meaning terms which carry special significance as indicated by their intensity and frequency of usage. One then tracks the context of these terms throughout a text to find which other words frequently occur together with these words. The second step, tracking hierarchies of terms, is done by finding how the terms in the equations relate to each other in a hierarchy. We start with specific and move upward to more general terms. On the top of the pyramid we find the God-term, which is the driving motivation and ground of all possibility in the text. Kenneth Burke hoped his method of indexing could help us understand the power language and motivational structures have to drive human action, and that we could question our own motivational structure as well as that of others and of the communities we operate in.
139

Universalism versus Cultural Relativism : A Study of the Zimbabwean Laws Regulating Child Marriages

Christensson, Tilda January 2020 (has links)
No description available.
140

Forecasting with deep temporal hierarchies : A novel way for forecasting with temporal hierarchies based on deep learning models

Theodosiou, Filotas January 2021 (has links)
Temporal hierarchies are being increasingly used for forecasting purposes over the past years. They have been shown to produce accurate and coherent forecasts which are beneficial for enterprises. Reconciling forecasts of different aggregation levels to achieve coherence, supports aligned decisions between different organizational levels. Current research focuses on analytical reconciliation methods which have shown to be more beneficial than conventional Bottom-Up and Top-Down approaches. However, such methods rely on a number of assumptions, primarily due to estimation requirements. This work proposes a novel approach for forecasting with temporal hierarchies. It results in a non-linear reconciliation method inspired by the architecture of an encoder-decoder deep neural network. A trainable encoder combines base forecasts into the reconciled bottom level predictions, while a fixed, non-trainable decoder reconstructs the forecasts across all hierarchical levels. Two different reconciliation architectures are presented based on different optimization procedures. They both ensure coherence. This thesis suggests two alternative usages for the reconcilers. One, to replace analytical expressions and reconcile base forecasts produced by models such as Exponential Smoothing. Second, as a part of a deep neural architecture DTH-28, which mimics the general framework for forecasting with temporal hierarchies. The proposed framework outperforms established benchmarks on real data. Furthermore, this work discusses the general effect of coherence on forecast accuracy. Coherence affects accuracy in two ways. One as a regularizer and second as a stepwise function. Exploiting each usage offers different accuracy benefits.

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