Objetivo: Novas tendências na avaliação de risco trazem evidências de que modelos externos recalibrados ou remodelados funcionam melhor localmente. O objetivo deste estudo foi validar dois modelos externos e formular um modelo local, comparando-os na predição de mortalidade nos pacientes operados de coronária e/ou valva no InCor-HCFMUSP. Método: Entre 2007 e 2009, 3.000 pacientes foram sequencialmente operados de coronária e/ou valva no InCor-HCFMUSP. No banco de dados, foi realizada a validação dos modelos 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) e EuroSCORE (ES), mediante testes de calibração e discriminação. O InsCor de 2.000 pacientes foi elaborado mediante a utilização de técnicas de bootstrap. Nos próximos 1.000 pacientes foi realizada a validação interna do modelo, e seu desempenho medido frente ao 2000BP e ES. Resultados: Houve uma diferença significativa na prevalência dos fatores de risco entre as populações do estudo, ES e 2000BP. Na validação externa dos modelos, o ES apresentou uma boa calibração (P=0,596); no entanto, o 2000BP revelou-se inadequado (P=0,047). Na discriminação, a área abaixo da curva ROC revelou-se boa para ambos os modelos, ES (0,79) e 2000BP (0,80). Utilizando a técnica de bootstrap, 10 variáveis: idade >70 anos, sexo feminino, cirurgia associada, infarto do miocárdio <90 dias, reoperação, cirurgia da valva aórtica, cirurgia da valva tricúspide, creatinina <2mg/dl, fração de ejeção <30% e estado pré-operátorio crítico (eventos), foram selecionadas para formulacão do InsCor. Na validação interna do InsCor, a calibração foi adequada, com P=0,184. Na discriminação, a área abaixo da curva ROC foi boa (0,79). Neste grupo, a área abaixo da curva ROC foi de 0,81 e 0,82 para o ES e 2000BP, respectivamente, mostrando-se apropriada para ambos os modelos. Conclusões: O InsCor e o ES tiveram melhor desempenho que o 2000BP em todas as fases da validação; pórem o novo modelo, além de se identificar com os fatores de risco locais, é mais simples e objetivo para a predição de mortalidade nos pacientes operados de coronária e/ou valva no InCor-HCFMUSP / Background: New trends in risk assessment bring evidence that recalibrated or remodeled external models work best locally. The aim of this study was to validate two external models and formulate a local model, comparing them to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at InCor-HCFMUSP. Method Between 2007 and 2009, 3.000 patients were sequentially operated to coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at InCor-HCFMUSP. The database was assessment to validate the models 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) through calibration and discrimination tests. The InsCor of 2,000 patients (2/3 of database) was elaborated using bootstrap techniques. Over the next 1000 patients (1/3 of database) the internal validation of the InsCor was performed and its performance compared against the 2000BP and ES. Results: Significant difference in the prevalence of risk factors was found among the external and study populations (P<0,001). In the external validation of these models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0.596); however, 2000BP was inadequate (P = 0.047). In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was good for both models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80). With the bootstrap technique, 10 variables: age> 70 years, female, CABG + valve surgery, myocardial infarction <90 days, reoperation, aortic valve surgery, tricuspid valve surgery, creatinine <2mg/dl, ejection fraction <30% and critical preoperative state (events) were chosen to formulate the InsCor. In the validation of InsCor, the calibration was appropriate with P = 0.184. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was good (0.79). In this group, the area under the ROC curve was 0.81 and 0.82 for ES and 2000BP, respectively, being suitable for both models. Conclusions: The InsCor and ES outperformed the 2000BP at all stages of validation, but the new model, besides identifying itself with the local risk factors, is more simple and objective for the prediction of mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at InCor-HCFMUSP.

Introdução: Pacientes com grande superfície corpórea queimada (SCQ) são graves e precisam de suporte em unidade de terapia intensiva (UTI). Estudos que caracterizem esses pacientes queimados durante sua internação em UTI são escassos na literatura. Objetivo: Caracterizar do ponto de vista epidemiológico e de desfechos clínicos os pacientes que foram admitidos em uma UTI de queimados, definindo os fatores associados à mortalidade e morbidade. Métodos: A partir de um banco de dados colhido prospectivamente, foram coletadas as informações de pacientes maiores de 16 anos com história de internação por queimaduras e admitidos na UTI durante o período de 60 meses. Foram coletados dados epidemiológicos e clínicos relativos ao suporte de terapia intensiva nos primeiros sete dias de internação na UTI, no décimo quarto, vigésimo primeiro e vigésimo oitavo dia de internação de UTI se o paciente ainda permanecesse internado na unidade. Resultados: Foram incluídos 163 pacientes. A mortalidade hospitalar foi de 42%. A mediana do tempo de internação hospitalar foi de 29 [11, 50] dias, aidade mediana foi de 34[25,47] anos, a SCQ foi de 29 [18,43]% e o SAPS3 foi de 41 [34, 54]. Aárea queimada letal associada à mortalidade de 50% dos pacientes foi de 36,5%. O valor do escore SOFA total nos não sobreviventes foi maior em todos os momentos analisados em comparação com os sobreviventes. A mediana do valor máximo do escore SOFA total apareceu de maneira precoce, sendo no segundo dia de internação para os sobreviventes e quarto dia para os não sobreviventes. O valor da área sob a curva ROC do escore SOFA total foi de 0,887 e para os componentes respiratório, cardiovascular, renal hematológico, hepático e neurológico foram respectivamente 0,814, 0,811, 0,738, 0,738, 0,526 e 0,569. Houve uma associação significativa entre a mortalidade hospitalar e o escore SAPS3 [OR (IC 95%) = 1,114 (1,062-1,168)], SCQ [OR (IC 95%) = 1,043 (1,010-1,076)], tentativas de suicídio [OR (95% CI) = 8,166 (2,284-28,907)], e balanço hídrico cumulativo por litro na primeira semana [OR (IC 95%) = 1,090 (1,030-1,154)]. Lesão inalatória esteve presente em 45% dos pacientes e não foi associada à mortalidade hospitalar. Conclusões: Os fatores associados independentemente à mortalidade de pacientes queimados críticos são a SCQ extensa, tentativa de suicídio e SAPS 3. Balanço hídrico acumulado mais elevado nos primeiros sete dias após a admissão na UTI também foi associado independentemente à mortalidade hospitalar. A implementação da gestão judiciosa de fluidos após a fase de ressuscitação aguda pode melhorar os desfechos neste cenário. As disfunções orgânicas se apresentam precocemente nos pacientes queimados e as disfunções respiratória, cardiovascular, renal e hematológica se associam à maior mortalidade nesta população. Assim, esforços devem ser direcionados para detecção e intervenção precoce das disfunções orgânicas / Introduction: Patients with large total burn surface area (TBSA) are critically ill and need support in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, the characteristics of burn patients who require ICU admission are scarce in the literature. Objective: To characterize the patients from an epidemiological point of view and clinical outcomes who were admitted to a burn ICU, defining the factors associated with mortality and morbidity. Methods: From a database collected prospectively, informations from patients older than 16 years with hospital admissions for burns and admitted to the ICU during a period of 60 months were collected. We collected epidemiological and clinical data regarding the Intensive care support in the first seven days in the ICU, the fourteenth, twentyfirst and twenty-eighth day of ICU hospitalization if the patient still remained hospitalized in the unit. Results: One-hundred sixty-three patients were included. The hospital mortality was 42%. The median hospital stay was 29 [11, 50] days, the age was 34 [25.47] years, the TBSA was 29 [18.43]% and the SAPS 3 was 41 [34, 54]. Lethal burn area at which fifty percent of patients died (LA50%) was 36.5%. The value of total SOFA score was higher in nonsurvivors at all timepoints analyzed compared with survivors. The median maximum value of the total SOFA score came at an early stage and on the second day of hospitalization for survivors and fourth day for non-survivors. The area under the ROC curve of the total SOFA score was 0.887 and the respiratory components, cardiovascular, renal, hematologic, hepatic and neurological were respectively 0.814, 0.811, 0.738, 0.738, 0.526 and 0.569. We found a significant association between hospital mortality and SAPS3 [OR(95%CI) = 1.114(1.062-1.168)], TBSA [OR(95%CI) = 1.043(1.010-1.076)], suicide attempts [OR(95%CI) = 8.126(2.284-28.907)], and cumulative fluid balance per liter within the first week [OR(95%CI) = 1.090(1.030-1.154)]. Inhalation injury was present in 45% of patients, and it was not significantly associated with hospital mortality. Conclusions: The factors independently associated with mortality during admission were increased TBSA, suicide attempt and higher SAPS 3. A higher accumulative fluid balance within the first seven days after ICU admission was also independently associated with hospital mortality. The implementation of judicious fluid management after an acute resuscitation phase may help to improve outcomes in this scenario. The organ dysfunction is present early in burn patients. Respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and hematological dysfunctions are associated with a higher mortality in this population. Thus, efforts should be targeted for early detection and intervention in organ dysfunction

<p>Uvod: Infekcija krvi izazvana multirezistentnim bakterijama roda Acinetobacter (MDRA) je praćena značajnim letalitetom i visokim tro&scaron;kovima bolničkog lečenja. Ciljevi istraživanja: Ustanoviti uče&scaron;će izolata Acinetobacter spp. u strukturi pozitivnih hemokultura i kretanje procenta rezistencije na antibiotike u zdravstvenim ustanovama sekundarnog i tercijarnog nivoa na teritoriji AP Vojvodine u periodu 2013-2015. godina; Utvrditi kod kojih pacijenata se najče&scaron;će javljaju infekcije krvi izazvane MDRA; Utvrditi faktore rizika za nastanak bolničke infekcije (BI) krvi izazvane MDRA i uticaj BI krvi izazvane ovim uzročnicima na dužinu trajanja hospitalizacije i na ishod lečenja pacijenata hospitalizovanih u zdravstvenim ustanovama sekundarnog i tercijarnog nivoa u AP Vojvodini. Materijal i metode: Podaci iz protokola mikrobiolo&scaron;ke laboratorije Centra za mikrobiologiju Instituta za javno zdravlje Vojvodine su kori&scaron;teni za retrospektivnu analizu učestalosti izolata Acinetobacter spp. u strukturi hemokultura i za praćenje kretanja procenta rezistentnih izolata Acinetobacter spp. na posmatrane vrste antibiotika u zdravstvenim ustanovama sekundarnog i tercijarnog nivoa u AP Vojvodini u periodu od 01.01.2013. do 31.12.2015. godine. Utvrđivanje faktora rizika za nastanak infekcije krvi izazvane MDRA je sprovedeno kao prospektivna kohortna studija u jedinicama intenzivnih nega (JIN) u zdravstvenim ustanovama u AP Vojvodini u periodu od 01.01.2013. do 31.03.2016. godine. Grupu 1 (n=164), studijsku grupu kohortne studije su činili ispitanici sa BI krvi izazvanom MDRA. Grupu 2 (n=328), kontrolnu grupu kohortne studije, sačinjavali su pacijenti JIN bez izolata Acinetobacter spp. u hemokulturi. Kontrole su bile uključene u istraživanje samo ako je dužina njihovog boravka u JIN (dužina trajanja hospitalizacije do otpusta) bila ista ili duža od dužine boravka para iz studijske grupe do izolacije MDRA iz hemokulture. Kontrole su bile uparene sa slučajem iz studijske grupe u odnosu (1:2) prema: uzrastu (+/-5 godine), vrsti JIN i vremenu (isti kalendarski mesec u kojem je kod para iz studijske grupe izolovana pozitivna hemokultura). U cilju utvrđivanja predisponirajućih faktora za letalni ishod (14-dnevni letalitet) pacijenata u JIN sa infekcijom krvi izazvanom MDRA sprovedena je anamnestička studija. Rezultati: Uče&scaron;će izolata Acinetobacter spp. u strukturi hemokultura pacijenata uzrasta 18 i vi&scaron;e godina hospitalizovanih u zdravstvenim ustanovama u AP Vojvodini u periodu 2013-2015. godina iznosilo je 13,9%. Primoizolati Acinetobacter spp. iz uzoraka hemokultura pacijenata su u 96,1% (198/204) bili multirezistentni. Analizom kretanja rezistencije izolata Acinetobacter spp. na ispitivane antibiotike jedino je na cefepim ustanovljeno statistički značajno smanjenje uče&scaron;ća rezistentnih izolata (od 98,5% u 2014. godini do 83,3% u 2015. godini), (p=0,025). Izolati Acinetobacter spp. su najče&scaron;će registrovani kod pacijenata hospitalizovanih u JIN (71,1% (145/204)). Multivarijantnom analizom izdvojili su se nezavisni prediktori za nastanak infekcije krvi izazvane MDRA: prijem iz drugog odeljenja/bolnice, prijemne dijagnoze politrauma i opekotina, prethodna kolonizacija gornjeg respiratornog trakta MDRA, prisustvo dva i vi&scaron;e komorbiditeta, prethodna primena mehaničke ventilacije, vi&scaron;i indeks invazivnih procedura, prethodna primena derivata imidazola i prethodna primena četiri i vi&scaron;e klasa antibiotika. Pacijenti sa infekcijom krvi izazvanom MDRA su statistički značajno duže boravili u JIN (24.5&plusmn;17,5) u odnosu na neinficirane kontrole (19,7&plusmn;12,6), (p=0,001) i statistički značajno če&scaron;će su imali letalan ishod (51,2% (84/164) u odnosu na pacijente bez infekcije krvi izazvane ovim mikroorganizmom (25,0% (82/328), (p&lt;0,0001). Multivarijantnom analizom, kao nezavisni prediktori letalnog ishoda pacijenata, izdvojili su se: starija životna dob, prijemnom dijagnoza akutne respiratorne insuficijencije i primena neadekvatne antimikrobne terapije nakon izolacije uzročnika iz hemokulture. Zaključak: Učestalost i struktura faktora rizika je ukazala da je snižavanje prevalencije i snižavanje letaliteta moguće ostvariti kombinovanom primenom mera koje obuhvataju racionalnu upotrebu antibiotika &scaron;irokog spektra u empirijskoj antimikrobnoj terapiji i striktno po&scaron;tovanje procedura vezanih za primenu invazivnih nastavaka.</p> / <p>Aim: Establish the participation of Acinetobacter spp. isolates in the structure of positive hemocultures and the percentage range of resistance to antibiotics in the health institutions of secondary and tertiary level on the territory of AP of Vojvodina in the period from 2013 to 2015; determine which patients most commonly get BSI caused by MDRA; determine risk factors for the occurrence of healthcare-associated infection (HAI) of blood caused by MDRA and the impact of HAI of blood caused by these pathogens to the duration of hospitalization, and the treatment outcome of patients admitted to the health care institutions of secondary and tertiary levels in the AP of Vojvodina. Material and Methods: Data from the protocol of the microbiological laboratory of the Center for Microbiology, Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina were used for retrospective analysis of the frequency of isolates of Acinetobacter spp. in the structure of positive hemocultures and for monitoring the percentage isolates of Acinetobacter spp. resistant to the observed type of antibiotics in health institutions of secondary and tertiary levels in AP of Vojvodina in the period from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015. Determining the risk factor for the occurrence of BSI induced by MDRA was conducted as a prospective cohort study in intensive care units (ICU) in the health institutions in AP of Vojvodina in the period from January 1, 2013 to March 31, 2016. Group 1 (n=164), study group of the cohort study included the patients with HAI of blood induced by MDRA. Group 2 (n=328), control group of the cohort study consisted of ICU patients without isolates of Acinetobacter spp. in the hemoculture. Controls were included in the study only if the length of their stay in the ICU (duration of hospitalization until discharge) was the same or longer than the length of the stay of their study group counterparts until the isolation of MDRA from blood culture. Controls were matched with the cases of the study group in the ratio (1: 2) according to: age (+/- 5 years), type of ICU and time (the same calendar month in which positive hemoculture was isolated in the the study group pair). In order to determine the predisposing factors of lethal outcome (14-day lethality) of patients in the ICU with the BSI caused by MDRA, anamnestic study was conducted. Results: Participation of Acinetobacter spp. isolates in the structure of hemocultures of patients, aged 18 and older, hospitalized in medical institutions in AP of Vojvodina in the period from 2013 to 2015 amounted to 13.9%. Acinetobacter spp. primoisolates from the patients&#39; hemoculture samples were in 96.1% (198/204) multi-drug resistant. Analysing the Acinetobacter spp. isolates resistance to the tested antibiotics, Cefepime was the only to prove to cause statistically significant decrease in the share of resistant isolates (from 98.5% in the year 2014 to 83.3% in 2015), (p=0.025). Isolates of Acinetobacter spp. are most frequently registered in patients hospitalized in ICU (71.1% (145/204)). Multivariate analyses separated independent predictors for the occurrence of blood infection caused by the MDRA: patient transfers from another ward/hospital, admission diagnoses of polytrauma and burns, previous colonization of the upper respiratory tract MDRA, the presence of two or more co-morbidity, previous use of mechanical ventilation, higher index of invasive procedures, previous use of Imidazole derivates and the previous use of four or more classes of antibiotics. Patients with BSI caused by MDRA stayed statistically much longer in the ICU (24.5&plusmn;17.5) as compared to uninfected controls (19.7&plusmn;12.6), (p=0.001) and significantly more likely to have the lethal outcome (51.2% (84/164)) compared to patients without bloodsteram infections caused by this micro-organism (25.0% (82/328) (p&lt;0.0001). Using multivariate analysis, independent predictors of death of patients, were found to be: advanced age, admission diagnosis of acute respiratory insufficiency and the application of inadequate antibiotic therapy after the isolation of pathogens from the hemoculture. Conclusion: The frequency and the structure of the risk factors suggested that the reduction of the prevalence and lowering of lethality can be achieved by combined administration of measures that include the rational use of broad spectrum antibiotics in the empirical antimicrobial treatment and strict compliance with the procedures related to the use of invasive follow-ups.</p>

<p>Prema literaturnim podacima poslednjih godina velika pažnja je usmerena ka operativnom riziku i mortalitetu koji su postali najvažniji kriterijumi u ocenama rezultata rada hirur&scaron;kih ustanova, ali i svakog hirurga posebno. Zahvaljujući kompleksnom profilu pacijenata koji se podvrgavaju hirur&scaron;kim intervencijama, precizna procena operativnog rizika postaje sve teža. Predikcija ishoda intervencije u najvećoj meri zavisi od preoperativnih faktora rizika. Ipak, neminovno je da i faktori koji su vezani za samu operaciju u određenom stepenu utiču na ishod hirur&scaron;ke intervencije. Shodno tome, dobar model za procenu rizika treba da obuhvati faktore koji će imati najbolju prediktivnu vrednost. Thoracoscore je prvi bodovni sistem razvijen od strane Francuskog udruženja grudnih i vaskularinih hiruga. Zbog nedovoljne primene tokom poslednje decenije i nekonzistentnih rezultata nije do&scaron;lo do &scaron;irokog međunarodnog prihvatanja ovog modela i njegove rutinske upotrebe. Ova činjenica ukazuje na nedostake samog modela i potrebu za rekalibracijom u cilju postizanja bolje saglasnosti između predikcije operativnog rizika i kliničkog stanja bolesnika. Cilj rada je bio da se ustanovi realna vrednost Thoracoscore bodovnog sistema u proceni operativnog rizika i mortaliteta nakon anatomskih i neanatomskih resekcija pluća u na&scaron;im uslovima, i da se utvrdi prediktivna vrednost faktora rizika koji nisu obuhvaćeni Thoracoscore bodovnim sistemom na ishod grudno-hirur&scaron;kih operacija. Istraživanje je sprovedeno po tipu prospektivne kliničke studije i obuhvatilo je 957 bolesnika operisanih na Klinici za grudnu hirurgiju Instituta za plućne bolesti Vojvodine. Izvr&scaron;ene hirur&scaron;ke procedure bile su anatomske resekcije (lobektomija, bilobektomija, pneumonektomija, Sleeve resekcija, segmentektomija) i neanatomske resekcije pluća (Wedge resekcija i druge atipične resekcije). Thoracoscore je izračunat za svakog bolesnika na osnovu devet parametara: godine starosti, pol, ASA skor, dispnea skor, procena op&scaron;teg stanja bolesnika, dijagnostička grupa, hitnost operacije, vrsta operacije i broj komorbiditeta. S obzirom da prediktivna vrednost Thoracoscore bodovnog sistema u proceni operativnog rizika nije bila adekvatna realnom stanju, regresionom analizom je evaluiran značaj tri nova faktora: forsirani ekspiratorni volumen u prvoj sekundi (FEV1), reoperacija i hirur&scaron;ki pristup (torakotomija, video-asistirana torakoskopija &ndash; VATS). Nakon &scaron;to je univarijantnom analizom potvrđeno da su ovi faktori nezavisni prediktori operativnog ishoda, originalni Thoracoscore model je rekalibrisan. Multivarijantnom analizom putem logističke regresije izračunati su novi beta koeficijenti za originalnih devet faktora, kao i za tri nova, te je kreiran lokalni model za procenu operativnog rizika koji je prilagođen na&scaron;oj populaciji. Prosečna starosti bolesnika bila je 62 &plusmn; 7,52 godina. Većinu uzorka (60,7%) činili su pripadnici mu&scaron;kog pola. Najveći broj resekcija činile su lobektomije (61,4%). Malignitet je bio najučestalija indikacija za operaciju (90,3%). Najveći broj bolesnika imao je 1-2 komorbiditeta (64,3%). Prosečna stopa operativnog rizika na osnovu Thoracoscore-a (4,7% ) bila je veća je od stvarnog (2,9%) intrahospitalnog mortalita (p&lt;0,01). Ovaj model je pokazao zadovoljavajuće rezultate jedino u grupi niskog rizika. Predikcija mortaliteta lokalnim modelom za procenu operativnog rizika u grudnoj hirurgiji se, u statističkom smislu, ne razlikuje od stvarnog mortaliteta (p = NS). Thoracoscore ima dobru diskriminativnu moć, ali nezadovoljavajuću kalibrisanost. Shodno tome, Thoracoscore model se može koristiti za stratifikaciju rizika, ali ne i za predikciju mortaliteta. Za razliku, lokalni model je pokazao dobru diskriminaciju i kalibrisanost u na&scaron;im uslovima. Interni model za procenu rizika bi bio od velike koristi u svakodnevnom kliničkom radu, budući da bi oslikavao realno stanje populacije u kojoj je razvijen i vr&scaron;io preciznu predikciju operativnog rizika.</p> / <p>According to the literature data, over the past several years, great attention has been focused on operative risk and mortality which have become the most important criteria in evaluating the results from surgical departments and individual surgeons, as well. Because of complex profiles of patients undergoing surgical interventions, it is becoming more difficult to assess the risk precisely. Prediction of surgical outcomes mostly depends on the preoperative risk factors. However, factors related to the procedure itself effect the surgical outcome to a certain degree. Therefore, a good risk assessment model must contain factors which will have the best predictive value. Thoracoscore is the first scoring system developed by the French Association of Thoracic and Vascular Surgeons. Due to insufficient utilization over the past decade and inconsistent results, this model has not been widely accepted for routine use. This fact indicates that the model lacks certain aspects and needs to be recalibrated in order to achieve better concordance between the predicted operative risk and the clinical state of the patient. The aim of this study was to determine real value of Thoracoscore scoring system for estimation of operative risk and mortality following anatomic and non-anatomic lung resections in our settings, and to determine predictive value of factors not included in Thoracoscore on the outcome of thoracic surgeries. This prospective study included 957 patients who underwent lung resections at the Thoracic surgery clinic of Institute for Lung Diseases of Vojvodina. Performed surgical procedures were anatomic lung resections (lobectomy, bilobectomy, pneumonectomy, Sleeve resection, segmentectomy) and non-anatomic lung resections (Wedge resection and other atypical resections). Thoracoscore was calculated for each patient based on the following nine parameters: age, gender, ASA score, dyspnea score, performance status classification, diagnostic group, urgency of surgery, surgical procedure and number of comorbidities. Because predictive value of Thoracoscore did not correspond to the actual results, regression analysis was used to evaluate the significance of three new risk factors: forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), reoperation, and surgical approach (thoracotomy, video-assisted thoracoscopy &ndash; VATS). After univariate analysis confirmed that these three factors are independent predictors of operative risk, the original Thoracoscore model was recalibrated. With the use of multivariate analysis by logistic regression, new beta coefficients were calculated for the original nine parameters, as well as for the new three, and consequently a local model for surgical risk assessment that is adapted to our population was created. Average age of patients was 62 &plusmn; 7.52 years. Most of the patients were males (60.7%). Lobectomies constituted the largest number (61.4%) of performed surgeries. The most common indications for surgery were malignant causes (90.3%). Most frequently, patients had 1-2 comorbidities (64.3%). Mean operative risk based on Thoracoscore (4.7%) was greater than the actual intrahospital mortality (2.9%) (p&lt;0.01). This model had adequate results only in the low risk group of patients. Predicted mortality by the local model was not statistically different from the actual mortality (p = NS). Thoracoscore had good discriminative ability, but inadequate calibration. Because of this, Thoracoscore model can be used for risk stratification, but not for mortality prediction. On the other hand, local model showed good discrimination and calibration in our population. Therefore, an internal model for risk assessment would be of great use in everyday clinical practice because it would reflect the real state of the population in which it was developed, predicting the risk more precisely.</p>

Objetivo: Novas tendências na avaliação de risco trazem evidências de que modelos externos recalibrados ou remodelados funcionam melhor localmente. O objetivo deste estudo foi validar dois modelos externos e formular um modelo local, comparando-os na predição de mortalidade nos pacientes operados de coronária e/ou valva no InCor-HCFMUSP. Método: Entre 2007 e 2009, 3.000 pacientes foram sequencialmente operados de coronária e/ou valva no InCor-HCFMUSP. No banco de dados, foi realizada a validação dos modelos 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) e EuroSCORE (ES), mediante testes de calibração e discriminação. O InsCor de 2.000 pacientes foi elaborado mediante a utilização de técnicas de bootstrap. Nos próximos 1.000 pacientes foi realizada a validação interna do modelo, e seu desempenho medido frente ao 2000BP e ES. Resultados: Houve uma diferença significativa na prevalência dos fatores de risco entre as populações do estudo, ES e 2000BP. Na validação externa dos modelos, o ES apresentou uma boa calibração (P=0,596); no entanto, o 2000BP revelou-se inadequado (P=0,047). Na discriminação, a área abaixo da curva ROC revelou-se boa para ambos os modelos, ES (0,79) e 2000BP (0,80). Utilizando a técnica de bootstrap, 10 variáveis: idade >70 anos, sexo feminino, cirurgia associada, infarto do miocárdio <90 dias, reoperação, cirurgia da valva aórtica, cirurgia da valva tricúspide, creatinina <2mg/dl, fração de ejeção <30% e estado pré-operátorio crítico (eventos), foram selecionadas para formulacão do InsCor. Na validação interna do InsCor, a calibração foi adequada, com P=0,184. Na discriminação, a área abaixo da curva ROC foi boa (0,79). Neste grupo, a área abaixo da curva ROC foi de 0,81 e 0,82 para o ES e 2000BP, respectivamente, mostrando-se apropriada para ambos os modelos. Conclusões: O InsCor e o ES tiveram melhor desempenho que o 2000BP em todas as fases da validação; pórem o novo modelo, além de se identificar com os fatores de risco locais, é mais simples e objetivo para a predição de mortalidade nos pacientes operados de coronária e/ou valva no InCor-HCFMUSP / Background: New trends in risk assessment bring evidence that recalibrated or remodeled external models work best locally. The aim of this study was to validate two external models and formulate a local model, comparing them to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at InCor-HCFMUSP. Method Between 2007 and 2009, 3.000 patients were sequentially operated to coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at InCor-HCFMUSP. The database was assessment to validate the models 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) through calibration and discrimination tests. The InsCor of 2,000 patients (2/3 of database) was elaborated using bootstrap techniques. Over the next 1000 patients (1/3 of database) the internal validation of the InsCor was performed and its performance compared against the 2000BP and ES. Results: Significant difference in the prevalence of risk factors was found among the external and study populations (P<0,001). In the external validation of these models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0.596); however, 2000BP was inadequate (P = 0.047). In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was good for both models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80). With the bootstrap technique, 10 variables: age> 70 years, female, CABG + valve surgery, myocardial infarction <90 days, reoperation, aortic valve surgery, tricuspid valve surgery, creatinine <2mg/dl, ejection fraction <30% and critical preoperative state (events) were chosen to formulate the InsCor. In the validation of InsCor, the calibration was appropriate with P = 0.184. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was good (0.79). In this group, the area under the ROC curve was 0.81 and 0.82 for ES and 2000BP, respectively, being suitable for both models. Conclusions: The InsCor and ES outperformed the 2000BP at all stages of validation, but the new model, besides identifying itself with the local risk factors, is more simple and objective for the prediction of mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at InCor-HCFMUSP.

INTRODUÇÃO: A hipertensão pulmonar tromboembólica crônica (HPTEC) é uma doença vascular pulmonar progressiva, cuja incidência varia de 0,56% a 3,2% em indivíduos com embolia pulmonar aguda (EPA) recorrente. Apesar do avanço nas opções de tratamento para HPTEC, a tromboendarterectomia pulmonar (TEAP) continua sendo padrão ouro, levando a melhora hemodinâmica e aumento da sobrevida. OBJETIVOS: Avaliar o impacto que mudanças técnicas intraoperatórias implementadas tiveram na evolução dos pacientes submetidos à TEAP em relação à morbimortalidade imediata e tardia, e também sobre o desenvolvimento do ato operatório. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo em portadores de HPTEC, submetidos à TEAP, no período de janeiro/2007 a maio/2016, divididos em 3 grupos, de acordo com intervenções implementadas. A 1ª intervenção consistiu em mudanças na circulação extracorpórea (CEC) e no tempo de parada circulatória total (PCT), e a 2ª intervenção incluiu alterações na CEC, técnicas anestésica e cirúrgica. A avaliação dos dados incluiu análise univariada para associações entre intervenções com variáveis de morbimortalidade e técnica operatória. O modelo de regressão multivariado foi aplicado para validar se as melhorias resultaram das intervenções implementadas. A análise de sobrevida foi feita por Kaplan-Meier. RESULTADOS: Foram avaliados 102 indivíduos, 62,8% mulheres, idade média de 49,1±14,8 anos, 65,7% estavam em classe funcional III-IV (NYHA). A avaliação hemodinâmica demonstrou hipertensão pulmonar importante, com valores médios elevados de pressão média na artéria pulmonar (PmAP; G1=52,9±14,45mmHg; G2=53,2±12,4mmHg; G3=53,3±12,5mmHg, p=0,992) e resistência vascular pulmonar (RVP; G1=828,4±295,13 dynas.s.cm-5; G2=838,9±428,4 dynas.s.cm-5; G3=969±417,3 dynas.s.cm-5, p=0,313). Os pacientes submetidos à TEAP mostraram aumento do tempo total de CEC entre os grupos (G1=192,3±39,4min; G2=251,7±33,4min; G3=298,2±40,2min, p < 0,001), como resultado da padronização dos tempos de esfriamento (G1=47,9±18,5min; G2=66,9±5,9min; G3=70,6±3,7min, p < 0,001), aquecimento (G1=66,8±17,7min; G2=87,2±8,1min; G3=107,7±23,5min, p < 0,001) e reperfusão (G1=25,5±7,6min; G2=20,7±8,4 min; G3=18,6±9,4min, p=0,007). A diminuição do número de operações com mais de 2 PCT (G1= 89%; G2= 60%; G3: 55%, p=0,002) foi decorrente do aumento da duração média de cada PCT (G1=15,5±2,9min; G2=17,8±1,7min; G3=19,2±2,0min, p < 0,001). Complicações pós-operatórias foram observadas em 88,5% dos pacientes, havendo redução significativa das complicações cirúrgicas (p=0,035), infecciosas (p=0,017) e neurológicas com sintomas permanentes (p=0,048) na comparação entre os 3 grupos. No seguimento após a alta, 85% estavam em classe funcional I-II (NYHA), sem melhora hemodinâmica significativa entre os grupos. Após a análise multivariada, o G3 apresentou 4,7 menos chances de complicação cirúrgica que G1 (p=0,034) e tempo de aquecimento menor que 83 minutos aumentou 4 vezes a chance de complicação infecciosa (p=0,002). A redução da mortalidade hospitalar e da sobrevida não foi significativa entre os grupos. CONCLUSÕES: Em relação à morbimortalidade imediata e tardia, o impacto das intervenções foi evidenciado pela redução das complicações neurológicas com sintomas permanentes, complicações cirúrgicas e infecciosas. Em relação ao ato operatório, o impacto foi evidenciado pelo aumento dos tempos totais de CEC, de esfriamento, de aquecimento, tempo médio das PCT, redução nos números de PCT e no tempo total de reperfusão / INTRODUCTION: Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) is a progressive pulmonary vascular disease which incidence varies from 0.56% to 3.2% in individuals with recurrent acute pulmonary embolism (APE). Despite advances in treatment options for CTEPH, pulmonary endarterectomy (PE) remains a gold standard, leading to hemodynamic improvement and increased survival. OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the impact of intraoperative technical changes on the evolution of patients submitted to PE related to immediate and late morbimortality, as well as on the development of the operative procedure. METHODS: Retrospective study of patients with CTEPH, submitted to PE, between January 2007 and May 2016, divided into 3 groups, according to the implemented interventions. The first intervention consisted of changes in cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and total circulatory arrest time (CAT), and the second intervention included changes in CPB, anaesthetic and surgical techniques. The data analysis included a univariate analysis for associations between interventions with morbidity variables and operative technique. The multivariate regression model was applied to validate whether the improvements resulted from the interventions implemented. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier. RESULTS: We evaluated 102 individuals, 62.8% were women, mean age was 49.1 ± 14.8 years, and 65.7% were in functional class III-IV (NYHA). The hemodynamic evaluation showed significant pulmonary hypertension, with mean values of mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP, G1 = 52.9 ± 14.45 mmHg, G2 = 53.2 ± 12.4 mmHg, G3 = 53.3 ± 12.5 mmHg, p = 0.992) and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR, G1 = 828.4 ± 295.13 dynas.s.cm-5, G2 = 838.9 ± 428.4 dynas.s.cm-5, G3 = 969 ± 417.3 dynas.s.cm-5, p = 0.313). The patients submitted to PE showed an increase in the total CPB time between the groups (G1 = 192.3 ± 39.4min, G2 = 251.7 ± 33.4min, G3 = 298.2 ± 40.2min, p < 0.001), as a result of the standardization of cooling times (G1 = 47.9 ± 18.5min, G2 = 66.9 ± 5.9min, G3 = 70.6 ± 3.7min, p < 0.001), heating (G1 = 66.8 ± 17.7min, G2 = 87.2 ± 8.1min, G3 = 107.7 ± 23.5min, p < 0.001) and reperfusion (G1 = 25.5 ± 7.6min, G2 = 20.7 ± 8.4 min, G3 = 18.6 ± 9.4min, p = 0.007). The decrease in the number of operations with more than 2 CAT (G1 = 89%, G2 = 60%, G3: 55%, p = 0.002) was due to the increase in the average duration of each CAT (G1 = 15.5 ± 2, 9min, G2 = 17.8 ± 1.7min, G3 = 19.2 ± 2.0min, p < 0.001). Postoperative complications were observed in 88.5% of the patients, with a significant reduction in surgical (p = 0.035), infectious (p = 0.017) and neurological complications with permanent symptoms (p = 0.048) in the comparison between the three groups. In the post-discharge follow-up, 85% were in functional class I-II (NYHA), with no significant hemodynamic improvement between groups. After the multivariate analysis, G3 presented 4.7 less chance of surgical complication than G1 (p = 0.034) and warming time less than 83 minutes increased 4 times the chance of infectious complication (p = 0.002). The reduction in hospital mortality and survival was not significant between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Regarding immediate and late morbimortality, the impact of interventions was evidenced by the reduction of neurological complications with permanent symptoms, surgical and infectious complications. Regarding the operative event, the impact was evidenced by the increase in total CPB, cooling, heating, mean CAT time, CAT reduction and total reperfusion time

Abstract The purpose of this work was to determine on the basis of the national hospital discharge register and cause-of-death statistics the extent of the hospital treatment required for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Finland over the period 1972–2001, i.e. the use made of hospital services, factors affecting the length of stay in hospital and the correlation of length of stay with the prognosis. Different intervals within this period were taken for study according to the themes of the individual papers. The results suggest that the length of stay in hospital varies both geographically and seasonally in Finland, the shortest times being recorded in Northern Finland in summer. The main explanations for this would appear to lie in regional differences in health care resources and treatment practises and in climatic variations. The mean length of stay in hospital in the total material in 1987–1998 was nine days. The longest periods applied to cases with concurrent pneumonia or a cerebrovascular disorder. The duration of treatment for the exacerbation stage of COPD decreased by two days between 1993 and 2001, with the longest periods of treatment observed in the case of elderly women. One week of treatment with current modalities may be regarded as optimal, as this was associated with the longest interval before the next exacerbation, just over six months. About 3% of all emergency admissions ended in death, most commonly on a Friday in winter or spring. Patients admitted at a weekend died within the first 24 hours more frequently than did those admitted on a weekday. The mean duration of treatment and frequency of hospitalization increased towards the terminal stage. About one fourth of the patients had died within a year of the first admission for COPD and about a half within five years. Hospital treatment for COPD intensified in Finland during the 1990s as the numbers of hospital beds decreased. Treatment times became shorter and deaths in hospital during exacerbation became less frequent. It will be necessary from now onwards, however, to anticipate the ageing of the population and to develop treatment modalities to replace hospitalization, in order to reduce the costs accruing from this disease. Early diagnosis and outpatient rehabilitation should be developed, and special attention should be paid to appropriate treatment at the terminal stage. / Tiivistelmä Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää valtakunnallisen hoitoilmoitusrekisterin ja kuolemansyytilaston avulla keuhkoahtaumataudista (KAT) aiheutunutta sairaalahoitoa Suomessa 1972–2001: sairaalapalvelujen käyttöä, hoitojakson pituuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä sekä hoitoajan yhteyttä ennusteeseen. Lähdeaineistosta valittiin erilaisia ajanjaksoja tutkimusasetelman mukaan. Tulokset viittaavat siihen, että hoitoajan pituus vaihtelee Suomessa maantieteellisesti ja vuodenaikojen mukaan: lyhyin hoitoaika on Pohjois-Suomessa kesällä. Ilmiötä selittänevät pääosin terveydenhuollon resurssien ja hoitokäytäntöjen alueelliset erot sekä ilmasto-olosuhteiden vaihtelu. Vuosina 1987–1998 keskimääräinen hoitoaika koko aineistossa oli yhdeksän vuorokautta. Jos potilaalla oli samanaikaisina sairauksina keuhkokuume tai aivoverenkiertohäiriö, nämä johtivat pisimpiin hoitoaikoihin. KAT:n pahenemisvaiheen hoitoaika lyheni kaksi vuorokautta vuodesta 1993 vuoteen 2001. Iäkkäitten naisten hoitoajat olivat pisimmät. Viikon pituinen hoitoaika nykyisillä hoitomuodoilla oli optimaalinen, sillä tällöin aika seuraavan pahenemisvaiheen hoitojakson alkuun oli pisin: vähän yli puoli vuotta. Kaikista päivystyshoitojaksoista potilaan kuolemaan päättyi kolmisen prosenttia. Yleisimmin tällainen hoitojakso päättyi potilaan kuolemaan perjantaisin ja todennäköisimmin talvella tai keväällä. Viikonloppuna sairaalaan tulleista potilaista kuoli ensimmäisen vuorokauden aikana enemmän kuin arkipäivinä tulleista. Keskimääräinen hoitoaika oli pisin ja sairaalahoito runsainta sairauden loppuvaiheessa kuoleman lähestyessä. Ensimmäisen KAT:n aiheuttaman hoitojakson jälkeen noin neljännes potilaista oli kuollut vuoden sisällä ja viiden vuoden kuluessa noin puolet. Keuhkoahtaumataudin sairaalahoito on tehostunut Suomessa 1990-luvulla sairaansijojen vähentyessä. Hoitoajat ovat lyhentyneet ja pahenemisvaiheiden sairaalakuolleisuus on vähäistä. Väestön ikääntyminen on kuitenkin ennakoitava ja sairaalaa korvaavia hoitomuotoja kehitettävä taudista aiheutuneiden kustannusten hillitsemiseksi. Varhaisdiagnostiikkaa ja avokuntoutusta on kehitettävä ja erityinen huomio kiinnitettävä sairauden loppuvaiheen asianmukaiseen hoitoon.

<p>Veno-arterijski gradijent ugljen-dioksida (Pv-aCO2) se smatra pokazateljem adekvatnosti microcirculatornog venskog protoka. U stanjima usporenog protoka dolazi do povećavanja Pv-aCO2 zbog fenomena zadržavanja CO2. Vrednost Pv-aCO2 predložena je kao dodatni cilj rane usmerene terapije kod pacijenata sa septičnim &scaron;okom. Cilj rada bilo je utvrditi postojanje korelacije promene Pv-aCO2 s promenom SOFA (&ldquo;Sequential Organ Failure Assessment&rdquo;) skora (delta SOFA) nakon primene rane ciljane terapije, kao i korelacije vrednosti različitih pokazatelja krvnog protoka unutar prvih 12 sati od početka lečenja pacijenata sa sepsom. Sekundarni cilj bilo je utvrditi postojanje korelacije Pv-aCO2 6 sati nakon početka rane ciljane terapije (T6) s dužinom boravka u intenzivnoj jedinici i ishodom lečenja. Prospektivnim, neintervencijskim ispitivanjem obuhvaćeno je 150 pacijenata sa sepsom ili septičnim &scaron;okom. Merenja serumskog laktata, saturacije kiseonikom me&scaron;ane venske krvi (ScvO2) i Pv-aCO2 vr&scaron;ena su na početku rane ciljane terapije (T0), posle 6 i 12 sati (T6, T12). Pv-aCO2 se računao kao razlika između parcijalnog pritiska ugljen dioksida arterijske i me&scaron;ane venske krvi. Vrednost SOFA skora određivana je u vremenu T0 i nakon 48 časova (T48). Pacijenti su za potrebe analize podeljeni u dve grupe na osnovu promene SOFA skora [(1) pacijenti kod kojih je do&scaron;lo do smanjenja SOFA skora (delta SOFA &lt; 0); (2) pacijenti kod kojih je smanjenje SOFA skora izostalo (delta SOFA &ge; 0)] i na osnovu vrednosti Pv-aCO2 u vremenu T6 [(1) pacijenti sa visokim Pv-aCO2 (&ge; 0.8 kPa); (2) pacijenti sa normalnim Pv-aCO2 (&lt; 0.8 kPa)]. Između dve grupe pacijenata, sa normalnim i visokim Pv-aCO2, statistički značajne razlike uočene su samo u odnosu na najvi&scaron;u vrednost respiratorne komponente SOFA skora (p=0.01). Uočena je statistički značajna korelacija između vrednosti Pv-aCO2 i laktata u vremenu T6 (r=0.2), Pv-aCO2 i ScvO2 u vremenu T0 (r=-0.4) i T12 (r=-0.24) kao i laktata i ScvO2 u vremenu T0 (r=-0.26) i T12 (r=-0.18). Analizom ponavljanih merenja nije utvrđena statistički značajna korelacija između promene vrednosti Pv-aCO2 unutar prvih 6 sati s promenom SOFA skora unutar prvih 48 sati nakon početka rane ciljane terapije (p=0.12). Utvrđeno je da su vrednosti Pv-aCO2 u vremenu T6 bile lo&scaron; prediktor smrtnog ishoda. Nisu utvrđene statistički značajne razlike u dužini boravka u intenzivnoj jedinici i ishodu lečenja u zavisnosti od vrednosti Pv-aCO2.</p> / <p>Central venous-arterial CO2 difference (Pv-aCO2) reflects adequacy of microcirculatory venous flow. Widening of Pv-aCO2 due to CO2-stagnant phenomenon is described in the low flow states. Pv-aCO2 was proposed as an additional resuscitation target for patients with septic shock.The aim of this study was to examine correlation between changes in Pv-aCO2 and SOFA score as well as different blood flow indices (lactate, mixed venous oxygen saturation) 12 hours after onset of resuscitation in patients with sepsis or septic shock. Secondary aim was to evaluate association of delta CO2 6 hours after onset of resuscitation and patient outcomes (length of stay in the ICU, mortality). Prospective observational study included 150 patients with sepsis. Simultaneous measurements of lactate, mixed venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) and delta PCO2 were performed at onset of resuscitation (T0) and after 6 hours (T6). Delta PCO2 was calculated as a difference between arterial PCO2 and PCO2 from mixed venous blood. Organ dysfunction was evaluated with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at T0 and after 48 hours (T48). Mortality was assessed after 28 days. For data analysis purposes two groups were created based on delta SOFA [(1) patients with SOFA score decrease (delta SOFA &lt;0); (2) patients without SOFA score decrease (delta SOFA &ge; 0)] and based on Pv-aCO2 [(1) patients with high Pv-aCO2 (&ge;0.8 kPa); (2) patients with normal Pv-aCO2 (&lt;0.8 kPa). Patients with high and normal Pv-aCO2 differed only with respect to highest respiratory SOFA score (p=0.01) Change in Pv-aCO2 between T0 and T6 was not in correlation with change in SOFA score between T0 and T48 (p=0.12). Moderate statistically significant correlation was found between Pv-aCO2 and lactate at T6 (r=0.2), and moderate inverse correlation between Pv-aCO2 and ScvO2 at T0 (r=-0.4) and T12 (r=-0.25) and ScvO2 and lactate at T0 (r=-0.27) and T12 (r=-0.18). Pv-aCO2 at T6 was not associated with 28-day mortality and length of stay in the ICU.</p>

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of case mix adjustment methods used to derive standardised mortality ratios for hospitals, by examining the consistency of relations between risk factors and mortality across hospitals. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data comparing observed deaths with deaths predicted by the Dr Foster Unit case mix method. SETTING: Four acute National Health Service hospitals in the West Midlands (England) with case mix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 88 to 140. PARTICIPANTS: 96 948 (April 2005 to March 2006), 126 695 (April 2006 to March 2007), and 62 639 (April to October 2007) admissions to the four hospitals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presence of large interaction effects between case mix variable and hospital in a logistic regression model indicating non-constant risk relations, and plausible mechanisms that could give rise to these effects. RESULTS: Large significant (P<or=0.0001) interaction effects were seen with several case mix adjustment variables. For two of these variables-the Charlson (comorbidity) index and emergency admission-interaction effects could be explained credibly by differences in clinical coding and admission practices across hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: The Dr Foster Unit hospital standardised mortality ratio is derived from an internationally adopted/adapted method, which uses at least two variables (the Charlson comorbidity index and emergency admission) that are unsafe for case mix adjustment because their inclusion may actually increase the very bias that case mix adjustment is intended to reduce. Claims that variations in hospital standardised mortality ratios from Dr Foster Unit reflect differences in quality of care are less than credible.

No / To build an early warning score (EWS) based exclusively on routinely undertaken laboratory tests that might provide early discrimination of in-hospital death and could be easily implemented on paper. Using a database of combined haematology and biochemistry results for 86,472 discharged adult patients for whom the admission specialty was Medicine, we used decision tree (DT) analysis to generate a laboratory decision tree early warning score (LDT-EWS) for each gender. LDT-EWS was developed for a single set (n=3496) (Q1) and validated in 22 other discrete sets each of three months long (Q2, Q3...Q23) (total n=82,976; range of n=3428 to 4093) by testing its ability to discriminate in-hospital death using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The data generated slightly different models for male and female patients. The ranges of AUROC values (95% CI) for LDT-EWS with in-hospital death as the outcome for the validation sets Q2-Q23 were: 0.755 (0.727-0.783) (Q16) to 0.801 (0.776-0.826) [all patients combined, n=82,976]; 0.744 (0.704-0.784, Q16) to 0.824 (0.792-0.856, Q2) [39,591 males]; and 0.742 (0.707-0.777, Q10) to 0.826 (0.796-0.856, Q12) [43,385 females]. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that the results of commonly measured laboratory tests collected soon after hospital admission can be represented in a simple, paper-based EWS (LDT-EWS) to discriminate in-hospital mortality. We hypothesise that, with appropriate modification, it might be possible to extend the use of LDT-EWS throughout the patient's hospital stay.