This thesis is analyzing the development of debt and deficit situation in the Czech Republic and France. Our main research questions are: why the Czech Republic and France have different debt and deficit? What are the effects and causes of debt and deficit? How Czech Republic and France wants to reduce the level of debt and deficit? These are the central questions we try to answer in this thesis. To pursue a systematic analysis, we start with a theoretical section on we described different theories of debt/deficit and budgetary rules effects on the economy in order to understand characteristics of debt issues. From these findings, we have resulted causes and differences of debt situations in our countries, which is part of empirical analysis. This is done by evolution of debt/deficit and factors that affect level of debt/deficit. We analyzed three mains factors and due to this factors that influence debt/deficit we can clearly see why our countries have different levels in debt problem. Regarding this we can say our countries are different in many respects. The major difference is monetary policy due to French member of Eurozone. Also the way how to get from debt issue and find a compromise between government reforms and interests of citizens will vary in the future.

本研究探討通貨膨脹風險下長期投資人之最適資產配置。由於長年期通貨膨脹之估計誤差於投資決策上容易產生顯著差異，我們延伸 Brennan and Xia (2002)的模型，嘗試以消費者物價指數預估及修正通貨膨脹率，利用貝氏過濾方法預估未來通貨膨脹率。以平賭過程描述基金的限制條件，最適化投資人之效用值求得加入可預測性效果後之最適多期資產組合模型。研究結果顯示，長期投資人之最適策略可表示為固定比例股票指數基金及不同存續期間固定收益基金之組合。以不同存續期間之固定收益債券可以有效建構規避通貨膨脹風險之避險組合。本研究並提供數值計算與分析。 / This paper examines the optimal portfolio selection for a long-term investor. In order to consider the uncertainty of inflation rate, we extend the work in Brennan and Xia (2002) and use the consumer price index (CPI) to estimate and update the inflation rate through the filtering mechanism. The stochastic real interest rate is assumed to follow the Vasicek-type model. The investor’s optimal portfolio selection is solved through the Martingale method. The result is given in a simple closed form solution. We show that the optimal strategy for the fund manager in hedging the inflation uncertainty is to incorporate a dynamic fixed income portfolio with different durations. Numerical illustration is provided to clarify our findings.

Submitted by Marcus Rocha (marcus.bonaldi@gmail.com) on 2014-11-12T01:38:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final tese PDF.pdf: 5244046 bytes, checksum: ebbdc36061829e3c3c3043394222067c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Viviane Alencar (viviane.alencar@fgv.br) on 2014-11-12T11:32:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final tese PDF.pdf: 5244046 bytes, checksum: ebbdc36061829e3c3c3043394222067c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2014-11-13T13:53:37Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final tese PDF.pdf: 5244046 bytes, checksum: ebbdc36061829e3c3c3043394222067c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-13T13:53:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final tese PDF.pdf: 5244046 bytes, checksum: ebbdc36061829e3c3c3043394222067c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-07-05 / This work investigates and analyzes the differences between inflation’s annual rates and the forecasts by economic agents, for a year ahead. The inflation index examined, were the IPCA, IPA-M, IGP-M and IGP-DI. For each agents preview, for each index, we performed a statistical analysis and time series analysis, by ARIMA model. Through this model we understood the forecast errors of economic agents by the past values of forecast errors in the past, besides the stochastic terms. / Este trabalho investiga e analisa as diferenças das taxas anuais de inflação realizadas com relação às previsões dos agentes econômicos do mercado para um ano à frente. Os índices analisados foram o IPCA, IPA-M, IGP-M e o IGP-DI. Referente à previsão dos agentes para cada índice, foi feito uma análise estatística e uma análise de séries temporais através do modelo ARIMA. Este último explicou o erro de previsão dos agentes econômicos através de valores passados, ou defasados, do próprio erro de previsão, além dos termos estocásticos.

This thesis deals with current issues relating to the mortgage market. The aim of the thesis is to analyse factors which influence the mortgage market in the Czech Republic and to describe their influence on the quantities of mortgages within last 10 years (2002-2011). The theoretical part introduces basic concepts related to the mortgage market, the legislation and chosen factors that could have an influence on the quantities of mortgages. Among these factors were chosen GDP, the rate of unemployment, the inflation rate and the interest rate of mortgage loans. One part deals with mortgage crises which came into existence in the USA in 2007 and had an impact on economics of other countries. In practical part there is an introduction into development of chosen factors and then there is finding out whether these factors influence the quantity of mortgages.

My thesis focuses on the analysis of financial instruments suitable to finance own housing available in the Czech Republic, especially on mortgages, building savings loans and consumer loans, from the client's perspective. The first chapter presents these three selected options, describes them along with their most important parameters. The second chapter presents three main financial groups in the Czech Republic alongside with their selected products. Individual products are compared and evaluated using preselected examples: buying a property and a reconstruction. Last chapter describes the most common influences on the demand for loan products to finance own housing and analyses them, focusing on the interest rates and the inflation rate.

01 Abstract Foreign exchange reserves are a useful tool and a buffer but maintaining an amount that is too large can be costly to the economy. Recent accumulation of these reserves points to the importance of this topic. This thesis focuses on one specific part of the effect of FX reserves on the economy - the inflation. I use panel data for 74 countries from the year 1996 to the year 2017. There is a certain degree of model uncertainty for which this thesis accounts for by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) estimation technique. The findings from my model averaging estimations show FX reserves to not be of importance for inflation determination with close to no change when altering lags, variables, when limiting the sample to fixed FX regimes nor when limiting the sample to inflation targeting regimes. The most important variables are estimated to be a central bank financial strength proxy, exchange rate depreciation, money supply, inflation targeting, and capital account openness. These results are robust to lag changes, prior changes, and for the most part remain the same when Pooled OLS is used.

This thesis investigates the impact of a more digitised economy on the inflation rate. European countries have historically done well in reaching their inflation target. In recent years however, policymakers have been puzzled over low inflation rates that seem to be difficult to stimulate. Just recently the impact of digitisation on price stability has gained some interest in economic research however the lack of empirical evidence on this relationship is severe. Based on scarce literature and existing theories hypotheses were constructed to test certain digitisation channels effect on the inflation rate. By gathering relevant data on inflation and the identified digitisation channels for 17 European countries over an 11- year period, econometric models corresponding to the hypotheses were analysed. The estimated results show that digitisation have a varying net-effect on the inflation rate, demonstrating that digitisation plays a role in determining fluctuations in price stability when controlling for other macroeconomic factors. These findings indicate that policymakers should consider digital technological development when targeting inflation, even though the effects may be temporary.

Text in Afrikaans / Suid-Afrika ondervind reeds geruime tyd hoe en stygende vlakke van werkloosheid. Gedurende die tagtigerjare bet die opkoms van vakbonde 'n fundamentele herstrukturering van die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark veroorsaak en die styging in werkloosheid gedurende die tydperk word dikwels aan vakbondoptrede toegeskryf. In die studie word verskillende oorsake van werkloosheid aan die hand van die klassieke, Keynesiaanse, natuurlike werkloosheidskoers- en nie-versnellende-inflasiewerkloosheidskoersbenaderings ondersoek ten einde die invloed van vakbonde en loononaanpasbaarheid op werkloosheid te probeer bepaal. Ooreenkomste sowel as verskille tussen die teoriee word geidentifiseer. Dit wil voorkom asof vakbonde gedurende die tagtigerjare in Suid-Afrika deur middel van bulle invloed op . loonverhogings 'n betreklik geringe invloed op werkloosheid gehad bet en dat loononaanpasbaarheid geensins 'n beduidende faktor was nie. Dit blyk ook dat die Keynesiaanse benadering die toepaslikste raamwerk hied vir die ontleding van hoe vlakke van werkloosheid en die invloed van vakbonde daarop. · / High and rising levels of unemployment have been experienced in South Africa for quite some time. The rise in trade union activity during the eighties caused a fundamental restructuring of the South African labour market and the increase in unemployment during this period is often blamed on trade union activity. In this study the classical approach, the Keynesian approach, the natural rate of unemployment and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment are used to examine the different causes of unemployment with the purpose of assessing the influence of trade unions and wage rigidity on the level of unemployment. Similarities as well as differences between the theories are identified. It appears that trade unions had a marginal effect on unemployment in South Africa during the eighties through their influence on wage increases and that wage rigidity was not a significant cause of unemployment during this period. The Keynesian approach seems to be the most appropriate framework to analyse the causes of high levels of unemployment as well as the influence of trade unions on unemployment. / Department of Economics / M. Comm (Economics)

本研究探討長期投資人在面臨通貨膨脹風險時的最適投資決策。就長期投資者而言，諸如退休金規劃者等，通貨膨脹是無可避免卻又不易被數量化之風險，因為各國僅公布與之相關的消費者物價指數而沒有公布真實通貨膨脹數值，因此我們延伸Campbell和Viceira(2001)及Brennan和Xia(2002)的模型假設，以消費者物價指數的資訊來校正原先假定符合Vasicek模型之通貨膨脹動態過程。本研究之理論背景為：利用貝式過濾方法(Baysian Filtering Method)，將含有雜訊之消費者物價指數，透過後驗分配得出通貨膨脹動態過程。利用帄賭過程(Martingale Method)求解資產之公帄價格。再引進定值相對風險趨避(Constant Relative Risk Aversion，CRRA)的效用函數，求出最適投資組合下之期末累積財富、各期資產配置以及效用值。 / 本研究歸納數值結果如下： 一、投資期間越長，通貨膨脹學習效果越顯著。投資期間達25年以上時，有學習效果之累積財富為無學習效果時兩倍以上，25年為2.36倍；30年為2.18倍。此外，學習效果對投資人效用改善率於長期投資時也較顯著，投資10年效用改善率為35%，而投資30年則高達1289%，呈非線性成長。以上結果顯示：資產在市場上累積越久，受到通膨影響越明顯，更需要以學習方式動態調整資產配置進行通貨膨脹風險管理。 / 二、風險較趨避之投資人，CRRA參數值越大；於最適投資組合下之期末財富較少，因為風險較趨避投資人偏好低波動度資產組合。風險容忍度低之投資人較需要通貨膨脹之學習，否則效用減損過高，例如CRRA參數為1.5之投資人30年後效用減損65%，CRRA參數為4之投資人效用減損達96.5%。以上數據顯示：風險趨避投資人對風險關注程度較高，考慮學習效果時，較能根據目前通貨膨脹調整資產配置。 / This study examines the optimal portfolio selection incorporating inflation risk learning adjustments for a long-term investor. For long-term investors, it is inevitable to face the uncertainty of inflation. On the other hand, quantifying inflation risk needs more effort since the government announced the information on Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than the real inflation rates. / In order to measure the inflation rate in planning the long-term investment strategies, we extend the works in Campbell and Viceira (2001) and Brennan and Xia (2002) to construct a stochastic process of the inflation rate. The prior distribution of inflation rate process, which is not directly observable, is assumed to follow the diffusion process. Based on the information of CPI, we then employ the optimal linear filtering equations to estimate the posterior distribution of the inflation rate process. Through these mechanisms, the inflation rate process is closer to reality by learning from CPI. We also construct the optimal portfolio strategy through a Martingale formulation based on the wealth constraints. The optimal portfolio strategies are given in closed-form solutions. / Furthermore, the importance of learning about inflation risk is summarized through the numerical results. (1) When the investment interval is longer, the learning effect becomes more significant. If the investment horizon is longer than 25 years, the wealth accumulation under learning will be twice more than that without learning effect, e.g., the wealth accumulation is approximately 2.36, 2.18 folds at the end of 25, 30 years. Utility increase under learning also become larger for long-term investor, e.g., the utility values will improve 35% after considering learning ability on inflation from 10-year interval, improve 1289% from 30 years. / (2)When the CRRA parameter increases, the investor have lower risk tolerance; and their wealth accumulation become less due to the lower volatility portfolio. A conservative investor requires more learning ability given the inflation, otherwise their utility value will be reduced, e.g., the utility values will be reduced 35% when CRRA=1.5 after 30 years’ investment, 96,5% when CRRA=4.

This study empirically examines the determinants of government expenditure in South Africa using annual data for the period from 1970 to 2014; and provides an overview of the South African government expenditure. The Johansen-Juselius co-integration test established that there is a long-run relationship between government expenditure and its determinants. The error correction model was used to examine the key determinants. The results of this study show that urbanisation rate, national income, poverty reduction; trade openness lagged one period and the wage rate significantly influence the size of government expenditure. Therefore, the study recommend that government create job opportunities; increase its expenditure in developing rural areas; and find ways to manage the public sector wage bill. The study concludes that population growth, inflation and trade openness in current period are not important in determining government expenditure in South Africa / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)