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綠色稅制改革所得重分配之研究 / Study on income distribution of green tax reform許景威 Unknown Date (has links)
綠色稅制改革始於1990年代,在此前歐美主要稅收所得來源為所得稅,隨著歐美國家面臨經濟與財政困境,課稅項目漸漸地轉向環境稅,最先實施的國家為北歐國家,目前我國正面臨經濟衰退,且新政府上任後,增稅政策屢屢遭到民眾的反彈,有些學者認為,環境稅有辦法達成「雙重紅利」,既能增進環境品質且改善所得分配,不失為一向好的課稅工具。
本研究以民國100年行政院主計處的「產業關聯表」與「家庭收支調查報告」估計綠色稅制改革的所得重分配效果,利用投入產出分析法,估計環境稅對於消費支出項目價格影響,再將環境稅稅收金額作為所得稅減免與移轉收入減免用途,最後估計吉尼係數,觀察實施綠色稅制改革後的所得重分配效果。
實證結果顯示,環境稅是一具有累退性質之租稅,故單純課徵環境稅會造成所得分配惡化,且課徵越高之金額,所得分配惡化越嚴重;實施綠色稅制改革後,所得分配都較原始值平均,且綠色稅制改革金額越大之方案,改善所得分配效果則越好。
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Secteurs manufacturiers dans le système communautaire d’échange de quotas d’émissions / Manufacturing sectors in the European Union Emissions Trading SchemeLecourt, Stephen 19 June 2014 (has links)
La thèse se concentre sur le secteur non-électrique agrégé couvert par le SCEQE. La contribution du secteur non-électrique aux variations des émissions de CO2 pendant les deux premières phases du marché (2005-2012), tant du point de vue de la demande finale que de celui de l’offre, est comparée à celle du secteur électrique. Les implications du mode d’allocation gratuite de quotas au secteur non-électrique durant la troisième phase du marché (2013-2020) sont examinées, ce qui constitue l’une des premières évaluations approfondies des benchmarks institués en Phase 3. Il est montré que, tant du point de vue de la demande finale que de celui de l’offre, le secteur non-électrique, du fait de ses interdépendances et de son niveau d’activité, a davantage contribué aux variations des émissions de CO2 que ne l’a fait le secteur électrique, au cours la période 2005-2012. Il est également montré que, en dépit de ses effets redistributifs, le mode d’allocation gratuite par benchmarks tel qu’il a été défini, demeure imparfait et n’est ainsi pas à la hauteur du rôle central du secteur non-électrique dans le fonctionnement du marché. / The thesis focuses on the aggregated non-power sector covered under the EU ETS. First, the non-power sector contribution to CO2 emissions changes in the first two phases of the Scheme (2005-2012), both from a final demand perspective and a supply perspective, is compared to that of the power sector at first. Then, the implications of the non-power sector specific free allocation methodology in the third phase of the Scheme (2013-2020) are scrutinized, which constitutes one of the first thorough assessment of Phase 3 benchmarking. It is showed that both from a final demand perspective and a supply perspective, the non-power sector, through its interrelated character and its activity levels, has contributed to changes in EU ETS CO2 emissions more than the power sector did, over the 2005-2012 period. It is also showed that, despite its free allocation redistribution effects, benchmark-based Phase 3 free allocation remains flawed and may benefit from further improvements to be up to the central role of the non-power sector in the EU ETS dynamics.
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Ekonomické a sociální dopady kulturního cestovního ruchu v ČR / Economic and social impacts of cultural tourism in the Czech RepublicRaabová, Tereza January 2006 (has links)
The work observes the positive relationship between culture and tourism and quantifies the economic and social (or socio-economic) impacts of cultural tourism in the Czech Republic. The first part showcases successful cultural projects in the Czech Republic and abroad, which attract tourists and provide destinations with financial resources and create new jobs. The author characterizes these positive economic and social impacts and benefits on the development of the region and analyzes existing studies of socio-economic impacts, normally processed abroad for cultural organizations and attractions. While in the Czech Republic, these studies are not yet very widespread, they represent a a useful document for the organization itself, but also for providers of grants and financial contributions, or for agencies and authorities designing concepts of culture and tourism. The work presents the basic methodologies used by the economic impact studies and further elaborates the most accurate and also the most demanding method of calculating the impacts, input-output analysis. Using this method, the author proposes a comprehensive model for calculating the economic and socio-economic impacts and benefits. The model uses statistical data of Czech national accounts and is intended for Czech cultural organizations attracting visitors. After using financial data of the surveyed organization and the expenditure of visitors, the model can easily determine the impacts of the organization to increase production, gross value added, employment and income of workers in the Czech Republic. The work builds on a lot of foreign findings, which seeks to apply in domestic conditions while using local data.
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A indústria brasileira no limiar do século XXI: uma análise da sua evolução estrutural, comercial e tecnológica / Brazilian manufacturing at the turn of the 21st century: an analysis of its structural, trade and technological evolutionMorceiro, Paulo César 10 October 2018 (has links)
A indústria de transformação, que havia liderado o crescimento econômico do Brasil nas cinco décadas precedentes a 1981 na fase de industrialização, perdeu dinamismo desde início dos anos oitenta. Desde 1981, o produto manufatureiro brasileiro cresceu pouco e abaixo da modesta taxa de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do Brasil. Com isso, o setor manufatureiro tem contribuído cada vez menos para a formação do PIB brasileiro e encolhido bastante relativo a indústria global, desde 1981 até 2017. Esta pesquisa realiza uma avaliação da estrutura produtiva e tecnológica bem desagregada setorialmente da indústria de transformação brasileira, desse modo, ela oferece um diagnóstico mais detalhado da perda de dinamismo industrial. Esta pesquisa procurou responder as seguintes perguntas: i) os setores manufatureiros diminuíram participação no PIB de maneira uniforme ou foi concentrado setorialmente? ii) os setores intensivos em conhecimento e tecnologia seguem uma trajetória de desindustrialização normal ou prematura? (iii) o tecido industrial do país está mais oco ou rarefeito nos anos 2000? (iv) o país é um montador que faz pouca transformação industrial em algum segmento manufatureiro? (v) os segmentos industriais que mais importaram insumos e componentes são também aqueles que mais exportaram? Ou seja, o Brasil tem uma inserção ativa nas cadeias globais de valor (CGV)? (vi) os setores de serviços são relevantes na realização de pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) no país de modo que a desindustrialização é irrelevante da perspectiva tecnológica? Para responder essas perguntas foram criadas sérias inéditas de longo prazo da participação dos setores manufatureiros no PIB. Também foi obtida uma tabulação especial do IBGE com informações para 258 subsetores industriais que permitiu avaliar o grau de adensamento produtivo deles. E por fim foram utilizados dados das Contas Nacionais do Brasil, das matrizes de insumo-produto e de investimento setor por setor para fazer um retrato setorial da produção e uso de P&D, através de técnicas de insumo-produto. Os resultados encontrados permitem concluir que o desenvolvimento industrial brasileiro está estagnado desde 1981 e a manufatura apresenta uma retração de longo prazo do produto manufatureiro real per capita. Esta pesquisa também apresentou uma abordagem setorial da desindustrialização pelo PIB de forma inédita, revelando que parte da desindustrialização brasileira é normal (ou esperada) e parte é prematura (e indesejada), dado o nível de desenvolvimento do Brasil. A desindustrialização prematura ocorreu nos setores intensivos em tecnologia, que também possuem baixo grau de adensamento produtivo ao importar parcela substantiva dos insumos e componentes intensivos em P&D. Também foi constatado que o Brasil se insere de forma passiva nas CGV, pois as classes industriais que mais importaram insumos e componentes não exportaram. Por fim, os setores de serviços - que ganharam bastante peso no PIB nas últimas décadas - conduzem no Brasil poucos investimentos em P&D e em menor magnitude que os setores manufatureiros. Portanto, da perspectiva tecnológica, a prematura mudança estrutural rumo aos serviços tem implicações relevantes quanto ao progresso tecnológico futuro do Brasil. / Brazilian manufacturing sector, which had led Brazil\'s economic growth in the five decades preceding 1981 in the industrialization phase, lost dynamism since the early 1980s. Since 1981, Brazilian manufacturing product grew slightly below the modest growth rate of Brazil\'s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With this, manufacturing sector has contributed less and less to the formation of the GDP. Brazilian manufacturing sector has also shrunk a lot relative to the global manufacturing from 1981 to 2017. This research makes an evaluation of the productive and technological structure well disaggregated sectorally of the Brazilian manufacturing industry, thus offering a detailed diagnosis of the loss of industrial dynamism. This research sought to answer the following questions: i) have the manufacturing sectors decreased their share in GDP uniformly, or have been sectorally concentrated? ii) are knowledge and technology intensive sectors following a trajectory of normal or premature de-industrialization? iii) are the production chains of the country more hollow or rarefied in the 2000s? iv) is the country an assembler who does little industrial transformation in some manufacturing subsector? v) are the manufacturing subsectors that more imported inputs and components also the ones that more exported? That is, Brazil has an active insertion in global value chains (GVC)? vi) are services sectors relevant in conducting research and development (R&D) in Brazil so that de-industrialization is irrelevant from the technological perspective? To answer these questions, the author created an unpublished long-term series of the participation of manufacturing sectors in GDP. A special tabulation of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics was also obtained, with data for 258 manufacturing subsectors, which allowed evaluating the degree of productive densification. Finally, data from Brazil\'s National Accounts, input-output matrices, and investment matrices were used to make a sectoral portrait of the production and use of R&D, through input-output techniques. Results showed that Brazilian manufacturing development is stagnant and occurs a long-term retraction of real per capita manufacturing output since 1981. This research also presented a sectoral approach to deindustrialization by GDP in an unpublished way, reporting that part of Brazilian deindustrialization is normal (or expected) and part is premature (and undesirable) given the level of development of Brazil. Premature deindustrialization occurred in the technology-intensive sectors, which also have a low degree of productive densification by importing a substantial portion of the inputs and R&D-intensive components. It was also observed that Brazil inserts passively in the GVC since the manufacturing classes that more import inputs and components do not export. Finally, service sectors - which have gained considerable weight in GDP in recent decades - conducted little investment in R&D in Brazil and to a lesser extent than manufacturing sectors. Therefore, from the technological perspective, the premature structural change towards services has relevant implications for the future technological progress of Brazil.
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A Comprehensive Embodied Energy Analysis FrameworkTreloar, Graham John, kimg@deakin.edu.au,jillj@deakin.edu.au,mikewood@deakin.edu.au,wildol@deakin.edu.au January 1998 (has links)
The assessment of the direct and indirect requirements for energy is known as embodied energy analysis. For buildings, the direct energy includes that used primarily on site, while the indirect energy includes primarily the energy required for the manufacture of building materials. This thesis is concerned with the completeness and reliability of embodied energy analysis methods. Previous methods tend to address either one of these issues, but not both at the same time. Industry-based methods are incomplete. National statistical methods, while comprehensive, are a black box and are subject to errors. A new hybrid embodied energy analysis method is derived to optimise the benefits of previous methods while minimising their flaws.
In industry-based studies, known as process analyses, the energy embodied in a product is traced laboriously upstream by examining the inputs to each preceding process towards raw materials. Process analyses can be significantly incomplete, due to increasing complexity. The other major embodied energy analysis method, input-output analysis, comprises the use of national statistics. While the input-output framework is comprehensive, many inherent assumptions make the results unreliable.
Hybrid analysis methods involve the combination of the two major embodied energy analysis methods discussed above, either based on process analysis or input-output analysis. The intention in both hybrid analysis methods is to reduce errors associated with the two major methods on which they are based. However, the problems inherent to each of the original methods tend to remain, to some degree, in the associated hybrid versions.
Process-based hybrid analyses tend to be incomplete, due to the exclusions associated with the process analysis framework. However, input-output-based hybrid analyses tend to be unreliable because the substitution of process analysis data into the input-output framework causes unwanted indirect effects.
A key deficiency in previous input-output-based hybrid analysis methods is that the input-output model is a black box, since important flows of goods and services with respect to the embodied energy of a sector cannot be readily identified. A new input-output-based hybrid analysis method was therefore developed, requiring the decomposition of the input-output model into mutually exclusive components (ie, direct energy paths).
A direct energy path represents a discrete energy requirement, possibly occurring one or more transactions upstream from the process under consideration. For example, the energy required directly to manufacture the steel used in the construction of a building would represent a direct energy path of one non-energy transaction in length. A direct energy path comprises a product quantity (for example, the total tonnes of cement used) and a direct energy intensity (for example, the energy required directly for cement manufacture, per tonne).
The input-output model was decomposed into direct energy paths for the residential building construction sector. It was shown that 592 direct energy paths were required to describe 90% of the overall total energy intensity for residential building construction. By extracting direct energy paths using yet smaller threshold values, they were shown to be mutually exclusive. Consequently, the modification of direct energy paths using process analysis data does not cause unwanted indirect effects.
A non-standard individual residential building was then selected to demonstrate the benefits of the new input-output-based hybrid analysis method in cases where the products of a sector may not be similar. Particular direct energy paths were modified with case specific process analysis data. Product quantities and direct energy intensities were derived and used to modify some of the direct energy paths. The intention of this demonstration was to determine whether 90% of the total embodied energy calculated for the building could comprise the process analysis data normally collected for the building. However, it was found that only 51% of the total comprised normally collected process analysis. The integration of process analysis data with 90% of the direct energy paths by value was unsuccessful because:
typically only one of the direct energy path components was modified using process analysis data (ie, either the product quantity or the direct energy intensity);
of the complexity of the paths derived for residential building construction; and
of the lack of reliable and consistent process analysis data from industry, for both product quantities and direct energy intensities.
While the input-output model used was the best available for Australia, many errors were likely to be carried through to the direct energy paths for residential building construction. Consequently, both the value and relative importance of the direct energy paths for residential building construction were generally found to be a poor model for the demonstration building. This was expected. Nevertheless, in the absence of better data from industry, the input-output data is likely to remain the most appropriate for completing the framework of embodied energy analyses of many types of productseven in non-standard cases.
Residential building construction was one of the 22 most complex Australian economic sectors (ie, comprising those requiring between 592 and 3215 direct energy paths to describe 90% of their total energy intensities). Consequently, for the other 87 non-energy sectors of the Australian economy, the input-output-based hybrid analysis method is likely to produce more reliable results than those calculated for the demonstration building using the direct energy paths for residential building construction.
For more complex sectors than residential building construction, the new input-output-based hybrid analysis method derived here allows available process analysis data to be integrated with the input-output data in a comprehensive framework. The proportion of the result comprising the more reliable process analysis data can be calculated and used as a measure of the reliability of the result for that product or part of the product being analysed (for example, a building material or component).
To ensure that future applications of the new input-output-based hybrid analysis method produce reliable results, new sources of process analysis data are required, including for such processes as services (for example, banking) and processes involving the transformation of basic materials into complex products (for example, steel and copper into an electric motor).
However, even considering the limitations of the demonstration described above, the new input-output-based hybrid analysis method developed achieved the aim of the thesis: to develop a new embodied energy analysis method that allows reliable process analysis data to be integrated into the comprehensive, yet unreliable, input-output framework.
Plain language summary
Embodied energy analysis comprises the assessment of the direct and indirect energy requirements associated with a process. For example, the construction of a building requires the manufacture of steel structural members, and thus indirectly requires the energy used directly and indirectly in their manufacture. Embodied energy is an important measure of ecological sustainability because energy is used in virtually every human activity and many of these activities are interrelated.
This thesis is concerned with the relationship between the completeness of embodied energy analysis methods and their reliability. However, previous industry-based methods, while reliable, are incomplete. Previous national statistical methods, while comprehensive, are a black box subject to errors.
A new method is derived, involving the decomposition of the comprehensive national statistical model into components that can be modified discretely using the more reliable industry data, and is demonstrated for an individual building. The demonstration failed to integrate enough industry data into the national statistical model, due to the unexpected complexity of the national statistical data and the lack of available industry data regarding energy and non-energy product requirements.
These unique findings highlight the flaws in previous methods. Reliable process analysis and input-output data are required, particularly for those processes that were unable to be examined in the demonstration of the new embodied energy analysis method. This includes the energy requirements of services sectors, such as banking, and processes involving the transformation of basic materials into complex products, such as refrigerators. The application of the new method to less complex products, such as individual building materials or components, is likely to be more successful than to the residential building demonstration.
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Man-Nature Attitudes of Arizona Water Resource LeadersKanerva, Roger A., King, David A. 06 May 1972 (has links)
From the Proceedings of the 1972 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 5-6, 1972, Prescott, Arizona / A pilot study is developed to construct a scale which measures attitude towards human management in Arizona. The decision-maker's attitudes toward his man-made and natural environments are investigated in terms of cultural (interior), natural (intermediate), and balanced (exterior) reference positions. A decision-making model consists of stimuli (inputs), decision-making (process function), and response (outputs). The 12 questions developed and applied to Arizona water managers were reduced to 8 capable scalogram analysis. These scaled questions related to favoring physical or emotional needs of man, deciding who gets what or increasing the supply, including behavioral patterns, protecting environmental areas, manipulation of resources as harmful or beneficial, municipal and industrial demands, opinions of groups, and possible overuse of resources. The scale met 5 criteria, which are defined by reproducibility, non-scale pattern of response, number of questions, error ratio and cross checking of responses. This study may provide managers with means of objectively evaluating and improving decisions.
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Raw Material Consumption - Ett mått på Sveriges materialanvändning i ett mer resurseffektivt samhälle / Raw Material Consumption - A measure of Swedish material use in a more resource efficient societyAndré, Axel January 2018 (has links)
Att kunna mäta vår materialanvändning är centralt i omställningen till ett resurseffektivare samhälle och en cirkulär ekonomi. Inom EU används Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) som indikator för materialanvändning. Den beräknas genom att addera de material som ett land utvinner, plus de material som importeras, minus de material som exporteras. Det finns kritik mot DMC då den endast tar hänsyn till vikten på import- och exportprodukter då de korsar landsgränsen. DMC inkluderar inte de uppströms material som gått åt för att producera en produkt, men som inte syns i slutprodukten (den så kallade materialryggsäcken). Den ökade globaliseringen har för många länder lett till en förflyttning av produktion utomlands, och för att beräkna dessa länders totala materialanvändning krävs det att hänsyn tas till importerade och exporterade produkters materialryggsäck. Raw Material Consumption (RMC) är en indikator som tar hänsyn till materialryggsäcken, men den har idag ingen standardiserad beräkningsmetod. Både RMC och DMC används inom Agenda 2030 för att följa upp FN:s hållbarhetsmål 12 ”Hållbar konsumtion och produktion”, samt hållbarhetsmål 8 ”Anständiga arbetsvillkor och ekonomisk tillväxt”. Endast DMC används idag inom EU. Syftet med projektet var att beräkna Sveriges materialanvändning med hjälp av indikatorn Raw Material Consumption (RMC), samt att identifiera styrkor och svagheter hos RMC. Eurostats RME-verktyg användes för att beräkna RMC. Enligt RMC ökade Sveriges totala materialanvändning från 198 miljoner ton råmaterialekvivalenter (RME) år 2008, till 221 miljoner ton RME år 2015, motsvarande 21,4 ton RME per capita 2008 till 22,6 ton RME per capita 2015. Resultaten jämfördes med resultat för Sveriges DMC som Statistiska Centralbyrån tagit fram. RMC och DMC gav liknande resultat för Sveriges totala materialanvändning. Detta tros bero på att materialryggsäcken för den svenska importen är ungefär lika stor som för exporten och att den största materialkategorin, icke-metalliska mineraler, utgör en liten del av vår handelsbalans och därför inte påverkas i någon större utsträckning när importerade och exporterade produkters materialryggsäck inkluderas. På materialkategorinivå är dock skillnaderna mellan RMC och DMC större. Resultat från Eurostats RME-verktyg som tagits fram i denna studie, har jämförts med resultat som OECD och UNEP tagit fram för Sveriges RMC. De har använt en annan beräkningsmetod än den RME-verktyget tillämpar. Skillnaden i total RMC för de olika beräkningsmetoderna är mellan 11 % och 22 %. På materialkategorinivå är skillnaderna större, över 50 % för fossila bränslen exempelvis. Liknande resultat har påvisats i en studie som jämförde Österrikes RMC för år 2007 med olika beräkningsmetoder. Både DMC och RMC kan användas som indikatorer för resurseffektivitet och cirkulär ekonomi, men vid jämförelse mellan länder är RMC teoretiskt en mer lämplig indikator. Detta eftersom många länder idag har flyttat stora delar av sin produktion utomlands, och DMC därför riskerar att ge en skev bild över resurseffektivitet och frikoppling, när materialryggsäcken inte inkluderas. / Being able to measure the amount of materials used in society, is central in the transition to a resource-efficient and circular economy. Within the EU, Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) is currently used as indicator for material use. It is calculated by adding the materials that a country extracts, plus the materials imported, minus the materials being exported. There is criticism of DMC, as a measure, since it only considers the weight of imported and exported goods when they cross the country border. It does not consider the upstream materials needed to produce a product, which are not represented in the final product (the so-called material backpack). Globalisation has led to a geographical disconnection in production and consumption, and to consider net-importing countries’ total material consumption, it is necessary to include traded product’s material backpack. Raw Material Consumption (RMC) considers the material backpack, but is currently without a standardised calculation method. Both RMC and DMC are used in Agenda 2030 to follow up the UN Sustainability Development Goal 12 "Sustainable Consumption and Production", as well as Goal 8 "Decent Work Conditions and Economic Growth". Only DMC is used today in the EU. The aim of this project was to calculate Sweden’s material consumption, using the indicator Raw Material Consumption (RMC), as well as identifying strengths and weaknesses of RMC. For calculating RMC, Eurostat’s RME-tool has been used. According to RMC, Sweden's total material usage increased from 2008 when it amounted to 198 million tonnes of raw material equivalents (RME), to 221 million tonnes RME in 2015. There has also been an increase per capita: 21,4 RME per capita in 2008 to 22,6 RME per capita in 2015. These results have been compared with the results for Sweden's DMC, calculated by SCB. RMC and DMC gave similar results for Sweden's total material consumption. This is believed to be due to the similar size of the material backpack of imports and exports. Another reason is believed to be due to Sweden’s largest material category, non-metallic minerals, is a small part of our trade balance, and therefore is not affected when the material backpack is included. At the material category level, however, the differences between RMC and DMC are greater. Results from Eurostat's RME tool, calculated in this study, have been compared with results presented by the OECD and UNEP. They have used a different calculation method for Sweden’s RMC than the RME tool applies. The difference in total RMC for different calculation methods is between 11 % and 22 %. At material category level, the differences are greater, more than 50 % for fossil fuels, for example. Similar results have been presented in a study over Austria's RMC for the year 2007, using different calculation methods. Both DMC and RMC can be used as policy-support for resource efficiency, but RMC is theoretically a more suitable indicator for comparison of countries. This is since many countries today have moved a significant share of their production abroad, and DMC therefore risks displaying a false perception of resource efficiency and decoupling, when the material backpack is not included.
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Trois essais sur la volatilité macroéconomique, la diversification productive, et les liaisons intersectorielles / Three essays in macroeconomic volatility, productive diversification, and inter-sectoral linkagesJoya, Mohammad Omar 09 November 2017 (has links)
Dans une série d'essais empiriques, cette thèse analyse les effets de la diversification productive sur la volatilité et la productivité dans les pays riches en ressources naturelles. Dans le premier chapitre, je montre que bien que les ressources naturelles affectent négativement la croissance économique en augmentant la volatilité, les pays riches en ressources peuvent compenser les effets déclencheurs de la volatilité des ressources en diversifiant leurs économies. Les pays dont la structure de production est initialement plus diversifiée, ou qui parviennent à se diversifier au cours de leur développement économique, sont susceptibles de bénéficier de leur dotation en ressources. Dans le deuxième chapitre, j’explique que les pays riches en ressources disposés à diversifier leurs économies pour stimuler leur productivité sont confrontés à deux choix; soit développer des industries axées sur les ressources, soit diversifier leur économie dans son ensemble vers de nouvelles activités qui ne dépendent pas nécessairement des ressources naturelles. L’analyse empirique montre que la diversification par les liens vers l’aval du secteur de l'exploitation minière ne conduit pas à des améliorations de productivité. En revanche, l'élargissement et la diversification de la structure de production dans son ensemble offrent des potentiels de croissance de la productivité à des niveaux de revenus plus élevés. Dans le troisième chapitre, j’analyse la relation entre la diversification et la volatilité du point de vue du réseau de production constitué par l’ensemble des liens d’approvisionnement entre secteurs. Je trouve que l'emplacement d'un secteur au sein du réseau et son influence sur d'autres secteurs ont des effets contradictoires sur le risque que les fluctuations subies par ce secteur génèrent une volatilité agrégée. Les secteurs situés dans des régions denses du réseau ont un effet atténuant sur la volatilité globale via les effets de substitution, tandis que ceux qui sont plus influents et au centre d'un réseau fortement asymétrique génèrent des fluctuations globales via les effets de contagion et les liaisons intersectorielles. Ceux-ci suggèrent que la répartition et la structure des liens interindustriels jouent un rôle important dans la façon dont la diversification conditionne l'impact des chocs idiosyncrasiques sur la volatilité globale. / In a series of empirical essays, this thesis looks at the various intertwining aspects of growth volatility and productive diversification in resource-rich countries. In the first chapter, I find that while natural resources adversely affect economic growth by increasing growth volatility, resource-rich countries can offset the volatility-triggering effects of natural resources by diversifying their economies. Countries that start off with more diversified production structure or are able to diversify as they develop are likely to benefit from their resource endowment. In the second chapter, I discuss the fact that resource-rich countries willing to diversify their economies are faced with dual policy options; to either develop resource-based industries, or diversify their economies as a whole into new activities not necessarily dependent on natural resources. The empirical analysis shows that diversification through downstream and forward linkages to mining does not lead to productivity enhancements. However, broadening and diversifying the production structure as a whole offer potentials for productivity growth at higher levels of income. In the third chapter, I look at the relation between diversification and volatility from a production network perspective, composed of input-output linkages across sectors. I find that the location of a sector within the production network and its influence on other sectors have conflicting effects on the risk that sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility. Sectors that are located in dense parts of the network have a mitigating effect on aggregate volatility via substitution effects, while those that are more influential and central in a strongly asymmetrical network generate aggregate fluctuations via contagion effects and inter-industry linkages. These suggest that the distribution and the network structure of inter-industry linkages play an important role into how diversification conditions the impact of idiosyncratic shocks on aggregate volatility.
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Assessment of the Effects of Sanctions on trade between the EU and Russia / Ohodnotenie vplyvu sankcií na obchod medzi EU a RuskomHašková, Barbara January 2015 (has links)
This thesis concerns about the effectiveness of sanctions imposed between Russia and the EU in 2014. Firstly are conducted theoretical foundations of sanctions and their imposition from the EU as well as Russian contra-sanctions. Secondly, the analysis is based on the gravity model in trade in log-linear form and further develop out-of-sample estimations about trade potentials. Although trade potentials did not proved the expected decrease in exports from EU to Russia, the Input-Output analysis of impacts on exports of food products did so. Results yielded calculated impacts on GDP of various countries due to food embargo that are more or less comparable with the actual evolution of GDP and trade flows. Thirdly, the indirect effects of sanctions of third country effect and re-exports are observed from trade patterns. There has been recorded increased exports of food related products from the EU towards members of Euroasian Customs Union as well as increased imports from these countries to Russia. Finally, the results points out decreased economic activity of Russia due to depreciation of domestic currency, capital flight, decline in oil prices and also sanctions adding up to the problems the economy deals with. The economic impacts of sanctions are present in both parties. However, from the political view sanctions did not proved to be effective so far. Russian intervention in Ukraine territory is continuing.
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Konstrukce a využití časových input-output tabulek v kontextu dynamizovaného input-output modelu / The Construction and Use of the Time Input-Output Tables in context of the Semi-dynamic Input-Output ModelZbranek, Jaroslav January 2011 (has links)
The aim of the dissertation thesis is to develop a methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables under the conditions of the Czech Republic. The following aim is to create an input-output model which is based on the compiled symmetric Time Input-Output tables. For the practical applications of this model it is crucial to link the created Input-Output model with the Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model. Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model in the conception of the submitted dissertation thesis takes into account several multiplier effects and presents more comprehensive tool for the use of the Input-Output analyses in this way. The first chapter focuses on the development of the issues linked to the Input-Output tables and analyses on the territory of the Czech Republic and in the world as well. The second chapter which is also theoretical is focused on mapping of different kinds of Input-Output analyses which are done in the world using Physical, Time or Hybrid Input-Output tables. The third chapter is a purely methodological because here it is described the methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables as well as methodological approach to the various sensitivity analyses. The fourth chapter focuses on the creation Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model and on the formal linking with the Input-Output model based on the Time Input-Output tables. The last fifth chapter is focused analytically. Methods described in the third chapter are applied on the official published data on the Czech economy. The analytical chapter is perceived in the submitted dissertation thesis as a tool for the sensitivity analysis in the sense of validation of the quality of the compiled Time Input-Output tables.
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