Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.

Submitted by Marilene Donadel (marilene.donadel@unioeste.br) on 2018-12-07T10:40:22Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Matheus_Nicola_2018_Pt1.pdf: 5945862 bytes, checksum: 42710c05a8dd3b08374b75d5279059a9 (MD5) Matheus_Nicola_2018_Pt2.pdf: 5252616 bytes, checksum: 8f8b69b2a2a6793fe4701e598722a16f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-07T10:40:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Matheus_Nicola_2018_Pt1.pdf: 5945862 bytes, checksum: 42710c05a8dd3b08374b75d5279059a9 (MD5) Matheus_Nicola_2018_Pt2.pdf: 5252616 bytes, checksum: 8f8b69b2a2a6793fe4701e598722a16f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-09-06 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The aim of this research was to estimate, in the short term, the impact of corruption on the income level of the economy and well-being of the Brazilian and Paraná society, by means of the input-output inter-regional Paraná and the rest of Brazil model, in the year 2008. To achieve this objective, it was necessary to collect information from the Accountability Tribunals of the Union and the state of Paraná judgments, to formulate the fate of corruption hypothesis and the corruption repeal hypothesis, to calculate the impact of corruption on the Income level and welfare. To approximate the analysis of the reality, the hypothesis of evasion and/or hoarding of corruption money was also tested. The results show that, in the short term, corruption stimulates the economy product and consequently increases the income level and welfare on Paraná and Brazil society. However, corruption has negative effects only if the amount evaded and/or enshrined is, on average, more than 50% of the amount diverted from the public purse. The indicators-summary of the economic structure clarify that part of this result is explained by the least degree of interconnection between economic sectors tied to government spending. The evidence of the results indicates that tolerance to corruption may be related to the short-term stimulus that corruption provides to the economy, but that tolerance diminishes as society perceives when the levels of income and economic well-being it don't increase in the long run. Another evidence of the results of this research is that combating currency evasion can alleviate the negative effects of corruption on the Brazilian and Paraná economy, and that the fight against the crime of money laundering would reduce the distortions between the system of national accounts and the real product of the economy. / O objetivo dessa pesquisa foi estimar, no curto prazo, o impacto da corrupção sobre o nível de renda da economia e bem-estar da sociedade brasileira e paranaense, por meio do modelo de insumo-produto inter-regional Paraná e o restante do Brasil, no ano de 2008. Para alcançar esse objetivo foi necessário coletar informações dos acórdãos dos tribunais de contas da União e do estado do Paraná, formular as hipóteses de destino da corrupção e de revogação da corrupção, para então calcular o impacto da corrupção sobre o nível de renda e o bem-estar social. Para aproximar a análise da realidade, também foi testada a hipótese de evasão e/ou entesouramento da corrupção. Os resultados mostram que, no curto prazo, a corrupção estimula o produto da economia e, por consequência, aumenta o nível de renda e bem-estar paranaense e brasileiro. Entretanto, a corrupção apresenta efeitos negativos somente se o montante evadido e/ou entesourado for, em média, superior a 50% do valor desviado do erário público. Os indicadores-síntese da estrutura econômica esclarecem que parte desse resultado é explicado pelo menor grau de interconexão dos setores econômicos atrelados aos gastos do governo. As evidências dos resultados indicam que a tolerância a corrupção pode estar relacionada ao estímulo de curto prazo que a corrupção proporciona à economia, mas que essa tolerância diminui à medida que a sociedade percebe que os níveis de renda e bem-estar econômico não aumentam no longo prazo. Outra evidência dos resultados dessa pesquisa é de que o combate à evasão de divisas pode amenizar os efeitos negativos da corrupção sobre a economia paranaense e brasileira e, ainda, que o combate ao crime de lavagem de dinheiro reduziria as distorções entre o Sistema de Contas Nacional e o real produto da economia.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2018-07-23T11:50:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 inaciofernandesdearaujojunior.pdf: 3989534 bytes, checksum: efdd8fd98640b17dd2720d5074098e7c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-09-03T16:18:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 inaciofernandesdearaujojunior.pdf: 3989534 bytes, checksum: efdd8fd98640b17dd2720d5074098e7c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-03T16:18:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 inaciofernandesdearaujojunior.pdf: 3989534 bytes, checksum: efdd8fd98640b17dd2720d5074098e7c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-22 / A intensificação da fragmentação internacional das cadeias de produção alterou a estrutura do comércio bilateral nas últimas décadas. A terceirização internacional e a especialização dos países nas cadeias de produção verticalmente integradas são determinantes dessa fragmentação. A terceirização internacional está relacionada à decisão das empresas em realizar parte dos estágios produtivos no exterior. A especialização vertical é definida pela interconexão dos processos de produção em uma cadeia de comércio vertical e sequencial, que se estendem por diferentes países especializados em estágios específicos da produção. No cenário de especialização vertical torna-se necessário diferenciar o comércio bruto e o comércio de valor adicionado para identificar a contribuição de cada país na produção global. Nesse contexto, a tese de doutorado investigou os determinantes da fragmentação internacional em relação à posição que as indústrias ocupam nas cadeias de produção e às medidas não-tarifárias de restrição de acesso aos mercados. O estudo usou uma base de dados construída a partir das matrizes inter-regionais de insumo-produto no âmbito global. A análise de insumo-produto mensurou o valor adicionado estrangeiro na produção e identificou a extensão geográfica das cadeias globais de valor. As medidas de especialização vertical, calculadas na abordagem de insumo-produto, rastrearam todos os encadeamentos produtivos por meio da estrutura de interdependência industrial. Desse modo, essa análise contabilizou a participação direta e indireta de cada país na produção global, considerando todos os estágios das cadeias globais. O estudo possibilitou compreender a inserção nas cadeias de valor em diferentes dimensões das redes globais de produção. Os principais resultados também mostram que as medidas nãotarifárias representam restrições importantes ao comércio de valor adicionado. Assim, embora a economia global tenha intensificado a fragmentação internacional das cadeias de produção, impulsionada dentre outros fatores pela redução tarifária, a adoção de medidas não-tarifárias dificulta a inserção dos países em estágios específicos dessas cadeias globais de produção. / The intensification of international fragmentation of production chains has altered the structure of bilateral trade in recent decades. The outsourcing and the specialization of countries in vertically integrated production chains determine this fragmentation. Outsourcing is related to the companies decision to carry out stages of the production abroad. Vertical specialization is defined by the interconnection of the production in a vertical and sequential chain of trade, which extends itself across different countries that specialize in specific stages of the production. In the vertical specialization scenario, it is necessary to differentiate the gross and value-added trade to identify the contribution of each country in the global production. In this context, the doctoral thesis investigated the determinants of international fragmentation by the position of industries in the production chains and the non-tariff measures restricting access to markets. The study used a database built from interregional input-output tables at global level. The input-output analysis measured foreign value added in production and identified the geographic extent of the global value chains. Vertical specialization measures, calculated in the input-output approach, tracked all productive linkages through the structure of industrial interdependence. Thus, this analysis counted the direct and indirect participation of each country in the global production, considering all the stages of the global chains. The study made it possible to understand the insertion in the value chains in different dimensions of the global production networks. The main results also show that the non-tariff measures are restrictions on the trade in value added. Therefore, the global economy has intensified the international fragmentation of production chains, driven, among other factors, by the reduction of tariffs, but the adoption of the non-tariff measures has made it difficult for countries to enter specific stages of these global production chains.

Zahlreiche Hoffnungen sind mit einer auf Pflanzen basierenden Wirtschaft, einer Bioökonomie, verbunden. Ob deren Weiterentwicklung den Zustand der Umwelt und die Wohlfahrt eines Landes verbessern kann, bleibt jedoch fraglich. Sich im Aufbau befindliche Bioökonomie-Monitoring-Systeme haben die Aufgabe, Informationen über Zielkonflikte zu liefern und somit eine erkenntnisgestützte Politikgestaltung zu ermöglichen. Das Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist es, Erkenntnisse für die Weiterentwicklung solcher Systeme zu gewinnen. Bisher entwickelte Bioökonomie-Indikatoren sind ungeeignet, den Übergang von einer fossil-basierten zu einer bio-basierten Wirtschaft korrekt abzubilden. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden deshalb entsprechende Indikatoren entwickelt und am Beispiel der Biokunststoffproduktion in Deutschland gemessen. Damit leiste ich einen Beitrag zur systematischen Indikatorenentwicklung, zur Charakterisierung einer bestimmten Bioökonomie-Transformation und zur quantitativen Modellierung der Indikatoren. Zukünftige Bioökonomie-Monitoring-Systeme könnten davon profitieren, wenn die Indikatorenentwicklung noch stärker als Prozess verstanden wird, der eine Auseinandersetzung mit den Zielen und deren Messbarkeit umfasst, sich so lange wiederholt bis zufriedenstellende Indikatoren verfügbar sind und die wichtigsten Akteure einbezieht. Zudem ist ein stärkerer Fokus auf nachhaltige Bioökonomie-Transformationen erforderlich, die sich an einem kreislauf- und suffizienzbasierten Wirtschaften orientieren und den Substitutionsbegriff weiter fassen als bisher. Das hier entwickelte Biokunststoff-Modell könnte in Monitoring-Systeme integriert werden, wenn es um Kohlenstoffflüsse und Post-Produktionsprozesse ergänzt wird. Forschungsbedarf besteht beim Aufbau eines auf gesellschaftliche Bedürfnisse fokussierten Monitoring-Systems und bei der Wirksamkeit von Monitoring-Systemen in der politischen Entscheidungsfindung. / The relationship between bioeconomy transitions and sustainable development is not straightforward. For policymakers it is often difficult to keep track of bioeconomy developments and formulate appropriate bioeconomy-related policies that are also conducive towards sustainable development. Consequently, bioeconomy monitoring systems have recently been initiated to provide more reliable sources of information. There is a clear mismatch between the vision of a transition from fossil-based to bio-based economies and available indicators. I aim here to enhance current bioeconomy monitoring systems by developing and applying a set of appropriate indicators and providing insight into three key issues: 1) how indicators can be systematically developed, 2) what dimensions of an economy need to receive attention while monitoring transition from a fossil-based to a bio-based one, and 3) what kinds of quantitative models are suitable for this purpose. This study shows that it is possible to quantify the bioeconomy transition and measure it with systematically developed indicators, applied to plastics substitution. I conclude that, 1) developing bioeconomy indicators should be a process that is goal-oriented, iterative, and inclusive, 2) bioeconomy transition indicators need to exhibit advancement in the circular use of biomass and in sufficient consumption behavior, and 3) the model developed here can be integrated into bioeconomy monitoring systems but requires advances regarding carbon flows and post-production processes. Developers of bioeconomy monitoring systems should develop new indicators through stronger involvement of carefully selected stakeholders. Policymakers need to participate more actively in designing such systems and provide greater and more stable funding. Research could explore sectoral strategies to reduce environmental impacts while fulfilling societal needs, design related indicator sets, and assess their relevance for political decision-making.