O avanço da tecnologia computacional e a sofisticação da modelagem numérica nos últimos anos tornou possível a realização de diversas simulações do clima terrestre. Essas simulações buscam reproduzir a dinâmica e a variabilidade do clima global, e consequentemente prever o clima futuro. Dentro do sistema climático, o oceano é o compartimento responsável por manter estabilidade do clima. Processos oceânicos como a formação e distribuição de massas de água têm um papel chave no armazenamento e redistribuição de energia pelo sistema. Mudanças nesses fenômenos podem implicar em variações drásticas do clima atual. Considerando isso, o presente trabalho visa descrever a estrutura espaço-temporal das massas de água do Oceano Atlântico Sul e do Oceano Austral. Para isso foram utilizados dados de modelos climáticos que foram utilizados na elaboração do 4° Relatório de Avaliação do Painel Intergovernamental para as Mudanças Climáticas. Os modelos são: ECHAM5/MPI-OM, IPSL-CM4-V1, MIROC3.2 e GFDL CM2.1. Dentre as diversas simulações são comparados os experimentos para o século XX (20c3m) e o experimento que assume a concentração de CO2 aumentando a uma taxa de 1% ao ano até o valor inicial duplicar (1pctto2x). Os resultados mostraram um aumento da temperatura da Água Intermediaria Antártica (AIA) e da Água Profunda Circumpolar (CDW). As densidades delas diminuíram significativamente tanto no cenário 20c3m quanto no 1pctto2x. A Água de Fundo Antártica (AFA) sofreu um resfriamento e passou a ocupar níveis mais profundos em ambos os cenários. As variações registradas no 1pctto2x foram mais intensas do que aquelas observadas no experimento 20c3m. Já variabilidade temporal das massas de água foram bastante divergentes entre os quatro modelos. / The development and sophistication of numerical models in recent years has allowed to perform many climate system\'s simulations. Such simulations aim to reproduce the dynamics and variability of the climate and consequently predict future climate and possible climate changes. Oceanic processes such as formation and distribution of water masses have an important role in understanding the oceans as a reservoir of salt, dissolved gases and heat. Considering that changes in such processes may have great impact in global and regional climate this work aims to describe spatial and temporal variability of water masses in the South Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean. Data from the numerical simulations used for the preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (4AR/IPCC) were used. Four climate models were chosen: ECHAM5/MPI-OM, IPSL-CM4-V1, MIROC3.2, NOAA / GFDL CM2.1. Results from the Climate of the 20th Century (20c3m) and the 1% per year CO2 increase (to doubling) experiment (1pctto2x) were analyzed. The four models show a positive trend of temperature and a freshening trend of the Antartic Intemediate Water (AAIW), Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and the Antartic Deep Water (AADW). The densities of these water masses become significantly lighter in the 20c3m scenario. In the 1pctto2x scenario in the AAIW and CDW moved to upper layers. Also in this scenario there is a cooling of the AADW, moving this water mass to deeper layers.

O avanço da tecnologia computacional e a sofisticação da modelagem numérica nos últimos anos tornou possível a realização de diversas simulações do clima terrestre. Essas simulações buscam reproduzir a dinâmica e a variabilidade do clima global, e consequentemente prever o clima futuro. Dentro do sistema climático, o oceano é o compartimento responsável por manter estabilidade do clima. Processos oceânicos como a formação e distribuição de massas de água têm um papel chave no armazenamento e redistribuição de energia pelo sistema. Mudanças nesses fenômenos podem implicar em variações drásticas do clima atual. Considerando isso, o presente trabalho visa descrever a estrutura espaço-temporal das massas de água do Oceano Atlântico Sul e do Oceano Austral. Para isso foram utilizados dados de modelos climáticos que foram utilizados na elaboração do 4° Relatório de Avaliação do Painel Intergovernamental para as Mudanças Climáticas. Os modelos são: ECHAM5/MPI-OM, IPSL-CM4-V1, MIROC3.2 e GFDL CM2.1. Dentre as diversas simulações são comparados os experimentos para o século XX (20c3m) e o experimento que assume a concentração de CO2 aumentando a uma taxa de 1% ao ano até o valor inicial duplicar (1pctto2x). Os resultados mostraram um aumento da temperatura da Água Intermediaria Antártica (AIA) e da Água Profunda Circumpolar (CDW). As densidades delas diminuíram significativamente tanto no cenário 20c3m quanto no 1pctto2x. A Água de Fundo Antártica (AFA) sofreu um resfriamento e passou a ocupar níveis mais profundos em ambos os cenários. As variações registradas no 1pctto2x foram mais intensas do que aquelas observadas no experimento 20c3m. Já variabilidade temporal das massas de água foram bastante divergentes entre os quatro modelos. / The development and sophistication of numerical models in recent years has allowed to perform many climate system\'s simulations. Such simulations aim to reproduce the dynamics and variability of the climate and consequently predict future climate and possible climate changes. Oceanic processes such as formation and distribution of water masses have an important role in understanding the oceans as a reservoir of salt, dissolved gases and heat. Considering that changes in such processes may have great impact in global and regional climate this work aims to describe spatial and temporal variability of water masses in the South Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean. Data from the numerical simulations used for the preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (4AR/IPCC) were used. Four climate models were chosen: ECHAM5/MPI-OM, IPSL-CM4-V1, MIROC3.2, NOAA / GFDL CM2.1. Results from the Climate of the 20th Century (20c3m) and the 1% per year CO2 increase (to doubling) experiment (1pctto2x) were analyzed. The four models show a positive trend of temperature and a freshening trend of the Antartic Intemediate Water (AAIW), Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and the Antartic Deep Water (AADW). The densities of these water masses become significantly lighter in the 20c3m scenario. In the 1pctto2x scenario in the AAIW and CDW moved to upper layers. Also in this scenario there is a cooling of the AADW, moving this water mass to deeper layers.

Water managers for the City of Phoenix face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on the Salt-Verde River basin. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, we estimate the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the 21st century. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections from the Phase-3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of the World Climate Research Programme were used to drive a spatially distributed variable infiltration capacity model of the hydrologic processes in the Salt-Verde basin. From the many Global Climate Model's participating in the IPCC fourth assessment, we selected a five-model ensemble, including three that best reproduce the historical climatology for our study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions; the latter two were requested by City of Phoenix water managers to more fully represent the full range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) was used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The model projections indicate a statistically significant 25% decrease in streamflow by the end of the 21st century. Contrary to previous assessments, this is not caused primarily by changes in the P/E ratio, but is found to result mainly from decreased winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow. The results show clearly the manner in which water management in central Arizona is likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.

This thesis aimed to investigate how a rising sea level would affect the livable area of the island Fongafale, Tuvalu. Through the IPCC stabilization scenarios it was examined which areas of the island that would be affected by flooding. The local population’s perceptions of the effects of climate change were studied to see how the consequences of a world-wide problem such as global warming affect people's lives. The paper clarified the Tuvaluans place in the discussion of climate refugees, explained IPCC's work and described the results of previous studies concerning people in Fongafales perceptions and concerns about climate-related changes. The result shows already flooded areas with important buildings, such as airport and government buildings and that with a rising sea level, an increasing part of the island will suffer. The survey shows a stronger tendency to concern for lack of water and work than for a climate-related sea level rise, and that the main reason for a possible emigration would primarily be work-related.

The diploma thesis deals with analysis of interbank payment systems in the Czech and in the Irish Republic. There are described basic types of payment systems that serve as background for analysis. Both observe countries are members of EU, so this work includes also brief characteristics of the law frame of EU and payment systems of EU. Farther there are characterized payment systems of both countries. In the Czech Republic operates just one interbank system of payment named CERTIS, while in Ireland operate three systems of payment. The first of them TARGET2-IE serves mainly for large value payments, while remaining two systems IRECC and IPCC serve for retail payments. Finally there is included comparison of payment systems by number of transactions and value of transactions.

The purpose of this essay is to map the debate regarding the government's climate policy andhow it is perceived from the perspective of different actors. The questions asked are: whichfocus areas are prioritized by the various actors and how does it relate to the IPCC's definitionof an ambitious climate policy? Also, based on the framework concept, which competingperspectives can be identified in the debate? The material that forms the basis of the essay ispublished "climate agendas" from the actors' websites. The theoretical framework applied inthe essay is framing theory, together with an operationalization of the concept of ambitiousclimate policy. The theory forms the framework in the essay's analysis part. To structure thework, a qualitative method has been applied. A functional idea analysis feels relevant basedon the design of the study as the aim is to consider climate policy in relation to certainspecific actors within the climate policy sphere. The idea analysis is actor-centered with theaim of giving a more vivid presentation by writing how certain actors argue in the debate.Previous research shows that many actors are difficult but beneficial and necessary to be ableto make the climate transition more efficient. On the other hand, attention is drawn to a kindof inertia in the current system that stops benefits that outside actors could contribute to theprocess. In agreement with previous research, this essay shows that many actors make itdifficult to create a climate agenda that includes all interests. However, the results indicatethat more actors are necessary to be able to design a more comprehensive climate policy.Despite an increased diversity of actors, national governments will still be a character as thecomprehensive laws, budget proposals and taxes affect which actors are included in the work.The essay's results show that many actors unite around some areas, but the motives behind,and the management options vary. Regardless of whether an actor has been assigned a role inthe environmental movement or not, it can be seen that three out of four actors have anoutspoken criticism of the government's climate policy.

Lyme disease is a common tick borne disease in the US. Lyme disease emerged from the Northeast and in the past decade, Virginia has been witnessing a rapidly increasing trend in incidence. This thesis uses land cover projection data as a basis to look at the potential future trend of Lyme disease incidence in Virginia for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change) scenarios of A1B and A2, which indicate a global and regional focus respectively. This study is a continuation of previous work done by an NSF funded research team at Virginia Tech, in exploring the variables affecting Lyme disease in Virginia. A Poisson point process is implemented in this thesis with land cover parameters (implemented land, water bodies, and edge metrics) and demographic parameters (population percentage and per capita income) as the spatial covariates. Lyme disease incidence data obtained from the Virginia Department of Health was used for model validation. The overall model was implemented using Python and its associated libraries while ArcGIS software was used for preliminary covariate analysis and data visualization. This thesis generates risk maps for A1B and A2 scenarios for each decade from 2010 through 2060. Spatial occurrence of disease incidence has been generated by the Poisson point process and the risk level of each county in Virginia has been calculated based on the incidence count predicted for it. Population and area at risk under each scenario for each decade was calculated. Results show that in A1B scenario 22.1% and 42.9% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk and in the A2 scenario, 21% and 33% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 and 2060 respectively. In terms of the area, A1B scenario has 28% under high risk in 2010 and 66% of the total area under high risk in 2060, while A2 scenarGIS, Lyme disease, Land cover projections, IPCC scenariosio has 22.4% under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 62.7% of the total area in Virginia is under high risk in 2060. / Master of Science

Este é um trabalho sobre a ecopolítica internacional das mudanças climáticas. Ele trata dos conflitos de interesses entre os Estados no que diz respeito a questões ambientais mais especificamente, no que diz respeito às alterações do clima terrestre. Nas últimas décadas e séculos o ser humano tem alterado a composição da atmosfera, fazendo com que o sistema climático se aqueça e se modifique. Portanto cabe ao ser humano entender o problema, avaliar suas conseqüências e desenvolver medidas de resposta. Para auxiliar nesses esforços na esfera internacional foi criado o IPCC, Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança do Clima. Sua função é dar as bases científicas necessárias para a tomada de decisões políticas que afetem o clima. Nesse sentido o IPCC está incumbido de tratar de questões relevantes para a política, sem no entanto interferir na tomada de decisões. Este estudo questiona justamente se o IPCC tem sido neutro como deveria ao expor os impactos das mudanças climáticas e ao apontar possíveis medidas de resposta. O recorte analítico selecionado para investigar essa questão é o Ecologismo dos Pobres, segundo o qual as sociedades humanas seriam marcadas pela desigualdade na distribuição dos benefícios e dos custos ambientais. Observando os relatórios do IPCC sob essa ótica foi possível encontrar indícios de que esse Painel talvez não seja tão neutro do ponto de vista político quanto afirma ser. Talvez ele não seja imune às disputas políticas entre os Estados. Como conseqüência o IPCC pode não ser a alternativa mais eficaz para responder às mudanças climáticas no âmbito internacional / This is a study about the international ecopolitics of climate change. It analyses the conflicts of interests among States concerning environmental questions more specifically, concerning changes in the planets climate. Over the last decades and centuries the human being has shifted the composition of the atmosphere, and the whole climatic system is being pushed to warming. For that reason human being is supposed to understand the problem, assess its consequences and develop answer measures. In the international arena the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was created to help in such efforts. The Panels function is to provide the political decisions concerning the climate with the necessary scientific basis. In that sense IPCC is meant to take into account policy relevant questions, but with a policy neutral perspective. This study inquires into IPCCs neutrality when it presents the climate change impacts and when it points out eventual answer measures. The analytical approach selected to investigate this question is the Environmentalism of the Poor. This approach argues that human societies distribute unequally the environmental benefits and costs. From this point of view, analyzing the IPCC reports brings evidence that the Panel may be not so policy neutral as it announces. Maybe it is not immune to political disputes among States. As a result IPCC may be not the most efficient alternative to respond to climate change.

Este é um trabalho sobre a ecopolítica internacional das mudanças climáticas. Ele trata dos conflitos de interesses entre os Estados no que diz respeito a questões ambientais mais especificamente, no que diz respeito às alterações do clima terrestre. Nas últimas décadas e séculos o ser humano tem alterado a composição da atmosfera, fazendo com que o sistema climático se aqueça e se modifique. Portanto cabe ao ser humano entender o problema, avaliar suas conseqüências e desenvolver medidas de resposta. Para auxiliar nesses esforços na esfera internacional foi criado o IPCC, Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança do Clima. Sua função é dar as bases científicas necessárias para a tomada de decisões políticas que afetem o clima. Nesse sentido o IPCC está incumbido de tratar de questões relevantes para a política, sem no entanto interferir na tomada de decisões. Este estudo questiona justamente se o IPCC tem sido neutro como deveria ao expor os impactos das mudanças climáticas e ao apontar possíveis medidas de resposta. O recorte analítico selecionado para investigar essa questão é o Ecologismo dos Pobres, segundo o qual as sociedades humanas seriam marcadas pela desigualdade na distribuição dos benefícios e dos custos ambientais. Observando os relatórios do IPCC sob essa ótica foi possível encontrar indícios de que esse Painel talvez não seja tão neutro do ponto de vista político quanto afirma ser. Talvez ele não seja imune às disputas políticas entre os Estados. Como conseqüência o IPCC pode não ser a alternativa mais eficaz para responder às mudanças climáticas no âmbito internacional / This is a study about the international ecopolitics of climate change. It analyses the conflicts of interests among States concerning environmental questions more specifically, concerning changes in the planets climate. Over the last decades and centuries the human being has shifted the composition of the atmosphere, and the whole climatic system is being pushed to warming. For that reason human being is supposed to understand the problem, assess its consequences and develop answer measures. In the international arena the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was created to help in such efforts. The Panels function is to provide the political decisions concerning the climate with the necessary scientific basis. In that sense IPCC is meant to take into account policy relevant questions, but with a policy neutral perspective. This study inquires into IPCCs neutrality when it presents the climate change impacts and when it points out eventual answer measures. The analytical approach selected to investigate this question is the Environmentalism of the Poor. This approach argues that human societies distribute unequally the environmental benefits and costs. From this point of view, analyzing the IPCC reports brings evidence that the Panel may be not so policy neutral as it announces. Maybe it is not immune to political disputes among States. As a result IPCC may be not the most efficient alternative to respond to climate change.

I Sverige finns uppskattningsvis mellan 4000 och 8000 stycken deponier. De flesta av deponierna är nedlagda och år 2001 fanns det 142 stycken aktiva deponier för hushållsavfall. År 2010 hade antalet minskat till 76 stycken.  Vid nedbrytning av organiskt material i deponier bildas metanhaltig deponigas som bidrar till växthuseffekten. Utsläppens omfattning prognostiseras med hjälp av beräkningsmodeller, exempelvis IPCCs. Dessa modeller fordrar att antaganden görs av exempelvis andelen gas som utvinns via gasuppsamlingsutrustningen, det organiska materialets halveringstid och avfallets sammansättning och mängd. I Sverige görs antagandet att 60 procent av deponigasen samlas upp på deponier med gasuppsamlingsutrustning. Rapportens övergripande syfte var att undersöka hur osäkerheterna i de antaganden som görs kan inverka på de prognostiserade deponigasemissionerna. Syftet var också att bedöma om metangasutsläpp från deponier utgör ett stort eller försumbart tillskott av växthusgasutsläpp i jämförelse med andra källor. Detta gjordes genom en känslighetsanalys som baserades på en litteraturstudie, IPCC- prognostiserade metanmängder samt genom intervjuer med deponiägare.   Prognostiserad metangasproduktion från landets deponier jämfördes med uppskattad metangasproduktion, där det senare baserades på utvunna mängder i landet och en uppskattad utvinningsgrad på 60 procent. Prognostiserad metangasmängd jämfördes med en uppskattad mängd metan, där den senare baserades på utvunna gasmängder i landet och uppskattad utvinningsgrad. Omfattningen av emissionerna gjordes genom känslighetsanalys där utvinningsgrad hos gasuppsamlingssystemets varierades mellan 30 och 80 procent. De utvunna gasmängderna har varit relativt konstanta de senaste tio åren trots att antalet deponier med gasuppsamlingsutrustning minskat från 75 till 47 stycken och att deponeringsförbud har instiftats. Den antagna halveringstiden på 7,5 år torde därför vara för lågt ansatt vilket också styrks av den dåliga nedbrytningen i flera äldre deponier, minskade mängder deponerat avfall samt att inget organiskt material deponeras sedan 2005. Sveriges huvudsakliga metankällor är jordbrukssektorn och deponier från avfallssektorn. År 1990 var de prognostiserade utsläppen från de två sektorerna ungefär lika stora. Fram till år 2010 har de prognostiserade utsläppen från deponier halverats medan utsläpp från jordbruket ligger på ungefär samma nivå som tidigare.   Ur den enskilda deponins perspektiv kan det konstateras att utvinningsgraden hos gasuppsamlingssystemet varierar i både ett kortsiktigt och i ett långsiktigt perspektiv. Beroende på när en mätning utförs kommer en viss variation uppvisas i gasutvinningssystemets utvinningsgrad dvs både emitterade och uppsamlade gasmängder varierar mellan mättillfällena.  Det kan konstateras att en stor osäkerhet byggs in i den beräknade årsproduktionen av metangas när metanmängderna beräknas med hjälp av medelvärden från ett fåtal mätningar utförda under korta mätperioder. Statistiska Centralbyrån har gjort beräkningar av den årliga utvinningsgraden. Dessa beräkningar har grundats på faktiska utvunna mängder som jämförts med beräknade totala mängder. För en enskild deponi kan skillnaderna mellan de beräknade och faktiska mängderna vara stora vilket medför att utvinningsgraden eller produktionen är svårbedömd både för den enskilda deponin och på nationell nivå.   Potentialen för gasutvinning i deponier bedöms i det här examensarbetet vara större än vad som har prognostiserats. Perioden för gasuttag sträcker sig längre än vad man trott med anledning av att mycket av det organiska materialet i gamla deponier fortfarande inte har brutits ner, samt att gasproduktion fortfarande sker. Med anledning av de låga driftskostnaderna bör deponigasutvinning fortskrida så länge som det är tekniskt möjligt och ekonomiskt hållbart. Genom provtagningar av avfallet i kombination med mätningar som sträcker sig över längre perioder, skulle bättre kännedom om metangasproduktionen i deponier kunna fås. / There are a large number of landfill sites in Sweden. The total number is estimated to be somewhere between 4000 to 8000 landfills. In 2007 there were 142 landfill sites still operating, three years later the number of operating landfills decreased to 76. The municipalities are at present carrying out an inventory of old landfill sites in Sweden. The focus is on the location and risk classification of the landfill sites. There is a substantial uncertainty of the content and the progress of the degradation process unless the landfill is dug out. Methane containing landfill gas is produced when the organic matter in the waste is degraded. Since methane is a potent green house gas the emissions of landfill gas will contribute to the green house effect.   The extent of the emissions is usually quantified using the IPCC model or similar. The models require certain estimations to be made such as the amount of gas that is extracted, the half-life of the organic matter and the composition of the waste. The aim of the report was therefore to look into these estimations and how these can effect the landfill gas production. The aim was also to evaluate whether the methane emissions from landfills is a major contributor to the green house gas emissions in comparison to other sources. The master thesis has been carried out through a literature study and interviews with landfill owners that resulted in a sensitivity analysis.     The plausibility of the IPCC model was studied by carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the efficiency of the gas extraction system and how this will influence the total emissions of landfill gas.  An overview of the connection between the land fill gas production and the decomposition of the organic matter could be realized by analyzing the material in the landfill through tests on different depths in the landfill when drilling new gas wells. The extracted amounts of landfill gas are also contradictive to the estimation of the half-life of 7,5 years that is assumption regularly made within the IPCC- model. This theory is supported by the inadequate decomposition of organic material in old landfill sites. The reduced amounts of waste that is landfilled and the prohibition of landfilling of organic and combustible waste in 2005 are also supporting this theory. The main methane sources in Sweden are ruminants from the agricultural sector and landfills. In 1990 the forecast of the methane emissions of the two sectors were equal. The forecast of today shows that the agricultural emissions are more or less the same but the emissions from landfill are halved.   Another conclusion was that the efficiency of the gas extraction is varying in a short- term and in a long-term perspective. Depending on when a measurement is carried out there will be a variation of the efficiency of the gas extraction system. Anyhow annual values of the extracted amounts are calculated based on a few occasional measurements over very short time periods.  Moreover, the yearly efficiency is determined based on real extracted values of methane and calculated total values of methane production that are non-comparable.   The potential of gas extraction is probably larger than what has been predicted and the period of gas extraction is probably longer than expected. Supported by the low operation costs for the gas extraction the extraction should be carried out as long as it is technically possible and economically reasonable.  Analyzing the material in the landfill site will increase the understanding of the gas production and the degradation of the waste in the landfill.