A partir dos conceitos de regime internacional e de governança global, busca-se compreender a influência dos governos subnacionais no âmbito das negociações multilaterais intergovernamentais, no que diz respeito à efetividade do regime internacional da mudança climática. O indicador de influência foi desenvolvido levando em consideração a criação e implementação das agendas políticas domésticas. Dessa forma, destacam-se as grandes cidades como atores subnacionais públicos, reunidas nas Redes de Cidades líderes contra as mudanças climáticas, entre elas a Rede C40. A transformação de atores públicos locais em agentes de mudança no âmbito transnacional, por meio da constituição de uma rede, abre novas perspectivas teóricas para a discussão acerca do papel de atores subnacionais nas Relações Internacionais, o que deve repercutir sobre o debate a respeito das abordagens teóricas nas subáreas de regimes e de governança global. / Following the conceptual framework of global governance and international regimes, we tried to demonstrate the relevance of subnational governments towards the conclusion of the international negotiations and the effectiveness of the international regime on climate change. This influence can be measured by their role in the domestic agenda setting, in the decision-making process and in the implementation of public policies, as well as in the increase in cooperation agreements with non-state actors. The Climate Leadership Group, the C40 network, gathering the largest cities in the world, have become an important international player, transforming itself into a new transnational actor in the Climate Change arena, which is going to have a influence on scholars of international regimes and global governance.

Submitted by Angela Maria de Oliveira (amolivei@uepg.br) on 2018-06-05T17:14:26Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Daniel Ruiz Potma.pdf: 3450096 bytes, checksum: 03d21d00bc051ccb6c35ac3df1c5fe14 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-05T17:14:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Daniel Ruiz Potma.pdf: 3450096 bytes, checksum: 03d21d00bc051ccb6c35ac3df1c5fe14 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Solos podem ser uma fonte ou um dreno de CO2 atmosférico, dependendo do seu sistema de manejo. Atualmente, o uso do solo e mudança de uso do solo emitem 1,3 ± 0,5 Pg C ano-1, equivalente a 8% das emissões globais. Técnicas como a agricultura de baixa emissão de C têm sido desenvolvidas para sequestrar C nos solos e reduzir a emissão de gases do efeito estufa. Porém, além dos desafios políticos e sociais envolvendo a doção destes sistemas, ainda há muita incerteza sobre o seu real potencial de mitigação. Assim, os objetivos desse estudo foram: i) Quantificar as fontes históricas e atuais de emissão de gases do efeito estufa na região dos Campos Gerais do Paraná, Brasil; ii) quantificar o potencial das melhores práticas de manejo agrícola baseadas nos três pilares da agricultura de conservação: Solo permanentemente coberto, plantio direto e rotação de culturas, em longo prazo (30 anos) para sequestrar carbono no solo, utilizando a fazenda Paiquerê (localizada na região dos Campos Gerais) como um modelo de sucesso; iii) estimar o impacto da adoção das melhores práticas de manejo nas áreas agrícolas da região e globalmente onde adequadas pelos próximos 100 anos utilizando os modelos Century e Roth-C. As fontes de gases do efeito estufa foram apresentadas como um inventário e mostraram que as emissões históricas (1930 – 2017) foram 412,18 Tg C, no qual as mudanças de uso do solo contribuíram com 91% (376,2±130 Tg C). As florestas sequestraram 51.7 ± 23.9 Tg C em 0.6 Mha em 47 anos (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 ano-1) e o plantio direto sequestrou 30.4 ± 23.9 Tg C em 1.9 Mha em 32 anos (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 ano-1). Ambos os modelos tiveram uma boa performance e o modelo Century foi mais eficiente em simular os estoques de carbono do solo, o resíduo médio da simulação foi 10 Mg C ha−1 (13%) para n = 91. O resíduo do modelo aumentou com a quantidade de óxidos no solo, sugerindo que a inclusão do controle mineralógico pode reduzir o viés de simulação. As predições do Century mostraram que o sistema tem potencial para mitigar 13 anos de emissões regionais (330 Tg C em 100 anos) ou 105 anos de emissões do setor agricultura, floresta e pecuária (40 Tg em 100 anos) na região. Da mesma forma, globalmente o sistema apresenta um potencial para sequestrar 2,5 ± 0.02 Pg C na profundidade 0–20 cm e 11,7 ± 3 Pg C na profundidade 0-100 cm em 86 milhões de ha distribuídos por todo o mundo. Este valor é equivalente à 11% das emissões globais dos setores agricultura, floresta e pecuária e mudanças de uso do solo. Assim, a nossa metodologia possa ser utilizada como um modelo para divulgar o potencial da agricultura conservacionista em sequestrar C nos solos e suportar políticas públicas que visem à mitigação das emissões de gases do efeito estufa. / Soils can be a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, according to land use and management. Currently the land use and land use change (LULUC) emits 1.3 ± 0.5 Pg carbon (C) year-1, equivalent to 8% of the global annual emission. Techniques such as low carbon agriculture, has been developed to sequester C in soils and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, besides political and social challenges for the system adoption, there’s still great uncertainty related to its real mitigation potential. This study aimed: i) Quantify the historical and current main sources of GHG emissions for Campos Gerais region in Paraná state, Brazil; ii) quantify the potential of long term (30 years) agricultural best management practices, based on the three pillars of conservative agriculture: permanent soil cover, crop rotation and no-till, to sequester C in soils, using Paiquerê farm (located in Campos Gerais region) as a successful model; iii) estimate the impact of best management practices adoption in the region croplands and globally for the next 100 years where is suitable using Century and Roth-C models. The GHG emission sources were presented as an inventory and showed that historical (1930 – 2017) GHG emissions in the region was 412.18 Tg C, in which LULUC contributes 91% (376.2±130 Tg C). Forestry sequestered 51.7 ± 23.9 Tg C in 0.6 Mha in 47 years (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 year-1) and no-till sequestered 30.4 ± 23.9 Tg C in 1.9 Mha in 32 years (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 year-1). Both models performed well, and Century was more efficient for simulate the SOC stocks, the mean residue was 10 Mg C ha−1 (13%) for n = 91. The model residue increased along with the oxides content in the soil clay fraction, suggesting that mineralogical control inclusion can reduce the model simulation bias. Century predictions showed that the system currently practiced at Paiquerê farm have the potential to mitigate 13 years of regional total emissions (330 Tg C in 100 years) or 105 years of agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector emissions (40 Tg in 100 years) in the region. In the same way, it has the potential to sequester 2.5±0.02 Pg C at 0-20 cm and 11.7±3 Pg C at 0-100 cm soil depth in 86 million ha globally. This is equivalent to 11% of global annual emissions from LULUC sector. In this way, our methodology can be used as a model to access the potential of conservation agriculture to sequester C and support public policies aiming to mitigate GHG emissions.

The concept of producing energy from biomass has, for the last two decades, occupied attention of policy-makers, private industries, researchers and civil societies around the world. The highly contested and contingent character of the biofuel production, its entanglement in the nexus of three problematic issues of energy, climate and agriculture, as well as its injection into the current socioeconomic arrangements, is what makes it timely to analyse. The thesis sheds light on the state of international debate on bioenergy by looking at deliberations of three major global institutions: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Energy Agency (IEA) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The primary aim is to trace and analyse how the concept of bioenergy is conceptualized and contextualized in assessments, reports, policy papers and other documents issued by FAO, IEA and IPCC in the 1990-2010 period. The secondary aim of the thesis, based on results derived from the primary objective, is set to problematize and reflect upon currently dominating socioeconomic arrangements that the concept of biomass-derived energy is inserted into. The research questions are organized around four distinctively contentious issues in the debate: biofuel production in developing countries, the food vs. fuel dilemma, bioenergy as a win-win-win solution and the future role of the second-generation bioenergy technology. The research questions are operationalized by applying four theoretical perspectives: the world-economy, Michel Foucault’s genealogy, discourse theory of Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe, and Fredric Jameson’s critical approach. The institutional debate illustrates that, while bioenergy appears to be an easy, plausible and thus attractive patch able to temporarily fix societal challenges of energy insecurity, climate change and agricultural crisis without changing much in the socioeconomic structure, its implementation exposes internal discrepancies of the hegemonic capitalist system. Whether bioenergy could actually function as a feasible win-win-win solution is of secondary importance. It is its economic feasibility expressed in the pressure on cost-effectiveness that matters the most but, at the same time, causes serious internal discrepancies in conceptualizations pursued by the organizations. The results point to two main conclusions. On the one hand, bioenergy is inevitably entrapped by the rules and arrangements of the hegemonic system that, in turn, cause internal contradictions. On the other hand, the institutional debate attempts to stabilize the shaky conceptualization of bioenergy, so that it can appear consistent and plausible, even if the possibility of reaching the closure of meaning fades away, with more conflicts on the rise. Furthermore, the results also show that the three international organizations exhibit uniform patterns of argumentations and the way they similarly discuss biomass-derived energy illustrates the objective to stabilize the meaning and adjust the concept of bioenergy to the hegemonic system. / Under de senaste två decennierna har idén om att producera energi av biomassa rönt stor uppmärksamhet bland forskare, företagare, beslutsfattare och i samhället i övrigt. De förhållandevis många kontroverser och alternativ som är förbundna med produktion av biobränslen, deras koppling till de tre problemområdena energi, klimat och jordbruk, samt deras etablering inom samtida geopolitiska, socioekonomiska och miljömässiga sammanhang, gör dem till en aktuell fråga att analysera. Avhandlingen belyser den internationella debatten genom att fokusera överväganden och ståndpunkter inom tre globala institutioner: FN:s mat- och jordbruksorgan (FAO), Internationella Energiorganet (IEA) och FN:s klimatpanel (IPCC). Huvudsyftet är spåra och analysera hur begreppet bioenergi formas och kontextualiseras i bedömningsrapporter och policydokument producerade av FAO, IEA och IPCC under perioden 1990-2010. Ett ytterligare syfte är att problematisera och reflektera över de socioekonomiska förhållanden som bioenergibegreppet ingår i. Forskningsfrågorna är formulerade utifrån fyra kontroversiella områden i debatten: biobränsleproduktion i utvecklingsländer, dilemmat mat kontra biobränsle, bioenergi som en ”win-win-win-lösning” och den framtida roll som tillskrivs andra generationens bioteknologi. Forskningsfrågorna operationaliseras genom att var och en knyts till ett av fyra teoretiska perspektiv: världssystemteori, Michel Foucaults genealogi, Ernesto Laclaus och Chantal Mouffes diskursteori respektive Fredric Jamesons kritiska ansats. I debatten framställs ofta bioenergi som ett enkelt och rimligt alternativ med kapacitet att tillfälligt lösa samhälleliga utmaningar som energi-osäkerhet, klimatförändringar och jordbrukskrisen, dock utan att den socioekonomiska strukturen ändras nämnvärt. Analysen visar emellertid att begreppsliggörandet istället påvisar interna diskrepanser i det hegemoniska, kapitalistiska systemet. Huruvida bioenergi verkligen kan fungera som en sådan ”win-win-win”- lösning framstår som sekundärt i dessa texter. Det är kostnadseffektiviteten som har störst betydelse, men samtidigt skapar man här allvarliga begreppsliga diskrepanser inom organisationerna. Utfallet av analysen pekar på två huvudslutsatser. Å ena sidan är bioenergin oundvikligen låst av det hegemoniska systemets struktur och de motsägelser som det rymmer. Å andra sidan tycks debatten inom organisationerna söka efter en stabilisering av det instabila begreppsliggörandet av bioenergin så att den framstår som konsistent och möjlig. Vidare visar analysen också att de tre organisationerna har liknande argumentationsmönster, och det likartade sätt på vilket de diskuterar energi från biomassa illustrerar en stabilisering av mening inom diskursen där bioenergibegreppet anpassas till det hegemoniska systemet.

A partir dos conceitos de regime internacional e de governança global, busca-se compreender a influência dos governos subnacionais no âmbito das negociações multilaterais intergovernamentais, no que diz respeito à efetividade do regime internacional da mudança climática. O indicador de influência foi desenvolvido levando em consideração a criação e implementação das agendas políticas domésticas. Dessa forma, destacam-se as grandes cidades como atores subnacionais públicos, reunidas nas Redes de Cidades líderes contra as mudanças climáticas, entre elas a Rede C40. A transformação de atores públicos locais em agentes de mudança no âmbito transnacional, por meio da constituição de uma rede, abre novas perspectivas teóricas para a discussão acerca do papel de atores subnacionais nas Relações Internacionais, o que deve repercutir sobre o debate a respeito das abordagens teóricas nas subáreas de regimes e de governança global. / Following the conceptual framework of global governance and international regimes, we tried to demonstrate the relevance of subnational governments towards the conclusion of the international negotiations and the effectiveness of the international regime on climate change. This influence can be measured by their role in the domestic agenda setting, in the decision-making process and in the implementation of public policies, as well as in the increase in cooperation agreements with non-state actors. The Climate Leadership Group, the C40 network, gathering the largest cities in the world, have become an important international player, transforming itself into a new transnational actor in the Climate Change arena, which is going to have a influence on scholars of international regimes and global governance.

This study examined the metaphors used in contemporary American conservative discourse between October 2018 and March 2019, focusing on material published by conservative think tanks (CTTs) and tweets made by Republican senators in relation to climate change. For the CTTs, a domain-specific corpus (36,388 words) was compiled and a smaller corpus (3967 words) was assembled based on 135 tweets. These datasets showed that conspiracy scepticism was the most common type of scepticism used to discredit climate change data, scientists and environmental policies. In addition, the datasets indicate that conservative agents frequently used metaphors of WAR, RELIGION, HEALTH, BUILDING, JOURNEY, WATER and PRODUCT to convey negative frames. These domains linked to the conceptual key LIFE IS A STRUGGLE FOR SURVIVAL and were presented in a moral context. In response to these findings it is suggested that the scientific community incorporate emotional language, metaphors and moral values when communicating environmental issues.

The aim of this study is to determine the predictability of river discharge in several major rivers on time scale varying from weeks to a century. We investigated predictability considering relationship between SST and Ganges and Brahmaputra River discharge. On seasonal time scales, statistically significant correlations are found between monthly equatorial Pacific SST and the summer Ganges discharge with lead times of 2-3 months due to oscillations of the ENSO phenomena. In addition, there are strong correlations in the southwest and northeast Pacific. The Brahmaputra discharge shows weaker relationships with tropical SST. Strong correlations relationships are found with SST in the Bay of Bengal but these are the result of very warm SSTs and exceptional Brahmaputra discharge during the summer of 1998. When this year is removed, relationships weaken everywhere except in the northwestern Pacific for the June and July discharge. Second goal is to project the behavior of future river discharge forced by the increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources. Three more rivers, the Yangtze, Blue Nile, and Murray-Darling rivers are considered. The original precipitation output from CMIP3 project has large inter-model variability, which limits the ability to quantify the regional precipitation or runoff trends. With a statistical Quantile-to-Quantile (Q-Q) technique, a mapping index was built to link each modeled precipitation and observational discharge. We also use the climatological annual cycle to choose the ¡°good¡± models. With the same indices, the future 21st century discharges of the first four rivers are simulated under different SRES scenarios. The Murray-Darling River basin does not have the similar seasonal cycle of discharge with modeled precipitations. We choose to project basin averaged precipitations instead. The Yangtze, Ganges, Brahmaputra River mean wet season discharges are projected to increase up to 15-25% at the end of the 21st century under A1B and A2. The risks of flooding also reach to a high level throughout the time. Inter-model deviations increase dramatically under all scenarios except for COMMIT. With large uncertainty, the Blue Nile River discharge and Murray-Darling River basin annual precipitation do not suggest a sign of change on multi-model mean.

CO2 emission is very important, because it is responsible for about 60% of the &quot / Greenhouse Effect&quot / . The major objectives of this study were to prepare a CO2 emission inventory of Turkey based on districts and provinces by using the fuel consumption data with respect to its sources, to find the CO2 uptake rate of forests in Turkey based on provinces and districts, and to estimate the ground level concentration of CO2 across Turkey using U.S. EPA&#039 / s ISCLT3 model for the preparation of ground level concentration maps. The basic sources of the CO2 emission were taken as households, manufacturing industries, thermal power plants and road vehicles. The sinks of the CO2 were forests. The CO2 uptake by forests was calculated using the annual increment of forest biomass. The results of the CO2 emission inventory conducted in this study between the years 1990 and 2003 showed that the CO2 emission in 1990 was 142.45 million tones/year and the highest emission was calculated in 2000 with a value of 207.97 million tones/year. The regional distribution of CO2 emission showed that the Marmara Region emits the highest regional CO2 emission throughout the years with an average value of 54.76 million tones/year. It was also calculated that Marmara and Aegean Regions are responsible for half of the CO2 emission of Turkey. The results of the CO2 uptake calculations showed that the CO2 uptake of forests in the coastal zone was higher that that in the inland zone. The CO2 uptake in the Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and South-Eastern Anatolia Regions were 2.6, 1.9 and 1.1 million tones/year, respectively. The maximum CO2 uptake is in the Black Sea Region with a value of 16.4 million tones/year. The highest ground level CO2 concentartions without any sink effect were always obtained in the Marmara Region. However, the forest areas in this region decrease the concentrations considerably. The dispersion model performance is determined highly without the results of the year 2002.

abstract: Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national effort to use global atmosphere-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations performed with those models and archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) form the most comprehensive quantitative basis for the prediction of global environmental changes on decadal-to-centennial time scales. While the CMIP5 archives have been widely used for policy making, the inherent biases in the models have not been systematically examined. The main objective of this study is to validate the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century climate with observations to quantify the biases and uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Specifically, this work focuses on three major features in the atmosphere: the jet streams over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the low level jet (LLJ) stream over central North America which affects the weather in the United States, and the near-surface wind field over North America which is relevant to energy applications. The errors in the model simulations of those features are systematically quantified and the uncertainties in future predictions are assessed for stakeholders to use in climate applications. Additional atmospheric model simulations are performed to determine the sources of the errors in climate models. The results reject a popular idea that the errors in the sea surface temperature due to an inaccurate ocean circulation contributes to the errors in major atmospheric jet streams. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Mechanical Engineering 2014

Within the climate science research community there exists an overwhelming consensus on the question of climate change. The scientific literature supports the broad conclusion that the Earth’s climate is changing, that this change is driven by human factors (anthropogenic), and that the environmental consequences could be severe. While a strong consensus exists in the climate science community, this is not reflected in the wider public or among policymakers, where sceptical attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change is much more prevalent. This discrepancy in the perception of the urgency of the problem of climate change is an alarming trend and likely a result of a failure of science communication, which is the topic of this thesis. This paper analyses the visual culture of climate change, with specific focus on the data visualisations comprised within the IPCC assessment reports. The visual aspects of the reports were chosen because of the prioritisation images often receive within scientific communication and for their quality as immutable mobiles that can transition between different media more easily than text. The IPCC is the central institutional authority in the climate science visual discourse, and its assessment reports, therefore, are the site of this discourse analysis. The analysis tracks the development and variations in the IPCC’s visual culture, investigates in detail the use of colour and the visual form of the “Hockey Stick” graph. This work is undertaken to better understand the state of the art of climate science data visualisation, in an effort to suggest the best way forward to bridge the knowledge gap between the scientific community and the public on this important issue. The thesis concludes that a greater emphasis on the information aesthetics of their data visualisations could benefit the IPCC’s pedagogical reach, but that it may also be argued that it is not the IPCC’s role in climate change discourse to produce the most visually persuasive images. That they exist as a tone-setting institution that provides authority to entities that are better geared towards wider communication, such as journalism and activism.

Les océans expliquent une part importante de la variabilité des pluies de mousson en Afrique de l’ouest. Quels sont les mécanismes physiques de ces interactions océan– atmosphère ? Comment sont-elles reproduites par les modèles de climat ? Ces deux questions sont ici abordées, en séparant d’emblée les échelles de temps interannuelles et décennales, et en confrontant les simulations réalisées pour le 4e rapport du Groupe intergouvernemental d’experts sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) aux données observées du xxe siècle. À l’échelle interannuelle, les anomalies de température à la surface du Pacifique équatorial, du golfe de Guinée, et de la Méditerranée sont statistiquement liées aux anomalies des pluies d’Afrique de l’ouest. La question de la stationnarité de ces liens au cours du xxe siècle est brièvement abordée. Les mécanismes physiques sont ensuite appréhendés dans les réanalyses atmosphériques et dans les simulations couplées du GIEC. Pour comprendre le comportement du modèle du Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), différentes expériences de sensibilité sont réalisées en prescrivant à l’océan une tension de vent réanalysée, sur le Pacifique tropical ou sur tout globe. Une simulation atmosphérique avec des températures de surface prescrites est aussi utilisée pour discuter du rôle du couplage océan–atmosphère. Étant donné le caractère saisonnier de la mousson africaine, le phasage temporel de la variabilité océanique doit être considéré avec attention. Dans les modèles couplés, les biais de l’El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) et de l’Atlantic Niño conduisent en effet à des interactions océan–mousson différentes de celles observées. À terme, une meilleure compréhension et simulation de la variabilité océanique et de ses influences pourrait permettre d’améliorer les scores de prévision saisonnière sur l’Afrique de l’ouest / The oceans explain an important part of the variability of monsoon rainfall overWest Africa. What are the physical processes of those ocean–atmosphere interactions? How are they simulated by climate models? Both issues are addressed, by considering the interannual and decadal time-scales separately, and comparing the simulations performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the 20th Century observation record. At the interannual time-scale, sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Mediterranean, are statistically linked to the West African monsoon rainfall. The stationnarity of those links is assessed over the 20th Century. The physical processes are then studied in the atmospheric reanalyses and in the IPCC coupled simulations. To understand the behaviour of the Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) model, various sensitivity experiments are carried out, with a reanalyzed wind-stress prescribed to the ocean model, over the tropical Pacific or over the global ocean. An atmospheric simulation with prescribed sea surface temperatures is also used, to discuss the role of the ocean–atmosphere coupling. Given the seasonality of the West African monsoon, attention has to be paid to the phaselocking of the oceanic variability. In the coupled models, the biases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the Atlantic Niño lead indeed to ocean–monsoon interactions that are different from those observed. A better understanding and simulation of the oceanic variability and its influences could in fine enhance the seasonal forecasting skills over West Africa