[pt] A integração do controle por computador de microscópios com a aquisição e análise digital de imagens levou à criação de uma nova área, denominada Microscopia Digital. Além de permitir um certo grau de automação, a Microscopia Digital abriu possibilidades realmente novas para a caracterização microestrutural. Uma destas novas e promissoras possibilidades é a Microscopia Co-localizada, que junta diversos tipos de informação, obtidas a partir de diferentes técnicas de microscopia. No presente trabalho foi desenvolvida e implementada uma metodologia de Microscopia Co-localizada que combina imagens de Microscopia Óptica de Luz Refletida (MO) e de Microscopia Eletrônica de Varredura (MEV). Esta metodologia envolve desde a aquisição das imagens nos microscópios até a análise das fases presentes através de técnicas de Reconhecimento de Padrões. Um procedimento automático de registro entre os dois tipos de imagens foi desenvolvido, permitindo o ajuste de magnificação, translação, rotação, tamanho de pixel e distorções locais. Desta forma, imagens de MO e de MEV de uma dada amostra podem ser combinadas precisamente. A metodologia foi testada com diversas amostras minerais, visando a discriminação de fases que são indistinguíveis por MO ou MEV. A Microscopia Co-localizada MOMEV foi empregada em uma rotina para a caracterização de amostras de minério de ferro e os resultados obtidos foram comparados com os da análise tradicional ao MEV. / [en] Computer-controlled microscopes with digital image acquisition and analysis led to the creation of a new field, called Digital Microscopy. Digital Microscopy not only allows a certain degree of automation but also has brought new possibilities to microstructural characterization. One of these new and promising possibilities is Co- Site Microscopy, that links different kinds of information, obtained from different microscopy techniques. The present work presents the development and implementation of a Co-Site Microscopy methodology that combines images obtained by Reflected Light Microscopy (RLM) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). This methodology involves the whole sequence, from image acquisition at the microscopes to the analysis of the phases using Pattern Recognition techniques. An automatic registration procedure for the two kinds of images was developed, allowing the adjustment of magnification, translation, rotation, and pixel size, and the correction of local distortions. The methodology was tested with several mineral samples, aiming at the discrimination of phases that are not distinguishable with either RLM or SEM. The RLM-SEM Co-Site Microscopy technique was employed in the characterization of iron ore samples and the obtained results were compared to the traditional analysis by SEM.

Energia é um insumo estratégico na mineração, pois é fundamental na viabilidade das operações mineiras e importante na manutenção de custos operacionais baixos e competitivos. Por esse motivo, toda iniciativa que visa a busca por eficiência no consumo de energia é importante para a competitividade das mineradoras. Vários insumos energéticos são utilizados nas operações unitárias de mineração. Os exemplos mais comuns são diesel, eletricidade, gás natural, carvão e explosivos. O objetivo desse trabalho é estudar, do ponto de vista energético, as atividades realizadas no processo de desmonte de rochas, em um complexo minerador de minério de ferro, visando a melhor utilização da energia no desmonte de rocha para aperfeiçoar as operações unitárias subsequentes de processamento de minérios. Um foco maior foi dado à economia de energia nas moagens de bolas da planta de beneficiamento e concentração, provocada pelas modificações e melhorias realizadas no desmonte de rocha. A metodologia consistiu na análise de diversos desmontes de rocha variando a razão de carga de explosivos no complexo minerador alvo desse trabalho. Os produtos desses desmontes foram acompanhados até a sua entrada na planta de beneficiamento. Durante o processamento desses materiais nas moagens da planta, foram coletadas e analisadas as grandezas elétricas resultantes e comparadas com uma linha de base gerada antes do início do trabalho. Os dados foram analisados com o objetivo de visualizar a influência do aumento da razão de carga na performance energética da operação de moagem. Em paralelo, também, foram analisadas as situações operacionais e dificuldades existentes nas medições de campo e nos acompanhamentos de consumos energéticos dos processos unitários, assim como a infraestrutura necessária para que uma variável tão importante como energia elétrica possa ser monitorada de forma adequada. Por fim, foi abordada a importância, a metodologia e os resultados da redução de emissões de CO2 provenientes da economia de energia de todo o trabalho realizado em campo. Os resultados apresentados mostram que mesmo com um aumento significativo da alimentação de material compacto (maior WI) nas moagens, o consumo energético total dessa operação unitária não aumentou. Isso gerou uma potencial economia específica de energia e a consequente redução de emissões de CO2 na atmosfera, além de viabilizar o processamento de material mais compacto nas mesmas linhas de processo. Esse comportamento sugere que uma melhor energia gasta no desmonte de rocha pode impactar positivamente na produtividade e nos custos de produção do minério ao longo de sua cadeia produtiva. / Energy is a mining strategic source, critical in mining operations feasibility and important to maintain low operational costs in a competitive level. For this reason, any initiative aimed at searching for energy efficiency is important for mining companies’ competitiveness. Mining operations need several energy sources. Most common examples are diesel, electricity, natural gas, coal and explosives. This text aims to address, from an energy perspective, a study carried out in an iron ore mining complex, which had as main objective to reach a better rock blasting energy utilization to improve subsequent mining operations. A greater focus was given to energy savings in ball mills operations of a beneficiation and concentration plant, impacted by modifications and improvements made in rock blasting. Methodology consisted in monitoring several rock blasting, carried out in this mining complex, varying explosive charge ratio. Products of those rock blasting were monitored until they entered the processing plant. During ore processing in plant´s ball mills, electrical variables were collected and analyzed, comparing to a baseline generated before the beginning of this research. All data were analyzed to show influence of explosive charge ratio increase on energy performance of the milling operation. In parallel, operational issues and difficulties in field measurements of energy consumptions were described, as well as the necessary infrastructure that allows the variable electricity to be adequately monitored. Besides, the methodology and results of CO2 emissions reduction from energy savings of all fieldwork were discussed. The research data shows that even with a significant increase in compact feed (higher Work Index), total energy consumption of mill operation did not increase. This scenario generate a potential specific energy savings and consequent reduction in CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. In addition, enables more compact material to be processed in the same process lines. This behavior suggests that a better energy spent on rock blasting can positively affect productivity and ore production costs along its production chain.

Bentonite is the most preferred silicate-based binder in iron ore pelletizing. However, it is considered as an impurity due to its high SiO2 and Al2O3 content. The iron-making economy is adversely affected by the addition of bentonite or other silicate-based binders. In recent years, impurity-free alternative binders have been tested in order to replace bentonite or to lower the bentonite dosage. Organic binders yield good quality green and dry pellets. However, they fail to impart enough mechanical strength to the preheated and fired pellets as a result of insufficient slag bonding. Thus, they have not found widespread application in the industry. The addition of boron compounds into pellet mix is proposed as a potential solution to overcome the insufficient compressive strengths of preheated and fired pellets produced with organic binders. During the experiments, some organic binders and boron compounds were tested as alternative binders to bentonite either alone or in combination, for both magnetite and hematite pellets. The performances of the tested binders on pellet qualities: balling, wet pellet moisture content, drop number, pellet compressive strengths (wet - dry - preheated - fired), dustiness, porosity, mineralogy, morphology, chemical contents, reducibility and swelling index have been compared with the performances of reference bentonite binder. The results of the tests showed that, the quality of pellets are insufficient when organic binders or calcined colemanite used as binder alone. The former failed to provide sufficient preheated and fired pellet strengths, the latter failed in terms of wet and dry pellet quality. However, good quality wet, dry, preheated and fired pellets could be produced with combination of these two binders. Calcined colemanite addition into pellets made with organic binders was tested in different dosages (0.25-1.00%). Results showed that with increasing dosage of calcined colemanite both strengths of preheated and fired pellets increased linearly. It was found that as low as 0.50% calcined colemanite addition equally-performed on magnetite fired magnetite pellets at 1300oC when compared with the performance of the reference bentonite binder. However, its performance was better on hematite pellets in order to improve the pellet compressive strengths. In addition, stronger pellets could be produced at lower firing temperatures like 1100oC with the addition of calcined colemanite. The reason of the improved preheated and fired compressive strengths of pellets bonded with calcined colemanite was due to the physical melting of calcined colemanite at the contact point of iron oxide grains during thermal treatment. It was found that bentonite bonded pellets fired at 1300oC were more reducible than those of produced with calcined colemanite addition. Swelling indices of these pellets were determined in the industrially acceptable limits. The chemical and mineralogical analyses results showed that the combined binders did not contaminate the pellet composition since the organic binders burnt-out without residue and colemanite does not contain much impurity.

Modeling and simulation of granular matter has important applications in both natural science and industry. One widely used method is the discrete element method (DEM). It can be used for simulating granular matter in the gaseous, liquid as well as solid regime whereas alternative methods are in general applicable to only one. Discrete element analysis of large systems is, however, limited by long computational time. A number of solutions to radically improve the computational efficiency of DEM simulations are developed and analysed. These include treating the material as a nonsmooth dynamical system and methods for reducing the computational effort for solving the complementarity problem that arise from implicit treatment of the contact laws. This allow for large time-step integration and ultimately more and faster simulation studies or analysis of more complex systems. Acceleration methods that can reduce the computational complexity and degrees of freedom have been invented. These solutions are investigated in numerical experiments, validated using experimental data and applied for design exploration of iron ore pelletising systems. / <p>This work has been generously supported by Algoryx Simulation, LKAB (dnr 223-</p><p>2442-09), Umeå University and VINNOVA (2014-01901).</p>

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:07:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 LeonardoFM.pdf: 4456392 bytes, checksum: 36e6d8718ecd158955c24006e7afca9a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-10-30 / The mining industry is responsible for the generation of waste from their natural process of extraction. The mining impacts in urban areas are of special importance due to the high urban occupation, which are exacerbated due to the proximity of the mined areas and populated areas. Some solutions to wastedisposal have the potential to significantly reduce the environmental risks and liabilities, but represent higher costs in the stages of deployment and operation. The addition of mining waste as raw material in the development of commercial products reduces the environmental impacts, transforming the waste into a positive element in the generation of employment and income. This thesis studies the incorporation of waste iron ore in two clays, one from the ceramic industry of the City of Natal and the other from the ceramic industry of the Serid? Region, both in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Percentages of iron ore waste of 5%, 10% , 15%, 20%, 25% and 30% were used in the tested ceramic matrix. The two clays and the iron ore waste used as part of this investigation were characterized by X-ray diffraction tests, X-ray fluorescence tests, differential thermal analysis, thermogravimetric analysis and dilatometric analysis. The samples were sintered under temperatures of 850 ?C, 950 ?C and 1050?C at a heating rate of 5 ?C/min with isotherms of two hours. The following tests were performed with the samples: linear shrinkage, water absorption, apparent porosity, apparent density, mass loss in fire and bending resistance in order to obtain their physical and mechanical properties. An amount of 5% of waste iron ore in the matrix clay at a temperature of 850 0C resulted in na increase of about 65% in the tensile strength of the clay samples from the Natal ceramic industry. A linear shrinkage of only 0.12% was observed for the samples, which indicates that the physical properties of the final product were not influenced by the addition of the waste / A ind?stria extrativa mineral ? respons?vel pela gera??o de res?duos provenientes do seu processo natural de extra??o. Os impactos da minera??o em ?rea urbana revestem-se de especial import?ncia devido ao alto grau de ocupa??o urbana, que s?o agravados face ? proximidade entre as ?reas mineradas e as ?reas habitadas. Algumas solu??es de disposi??o de res?duos t?m potencial de reduzir significativamente os riscos e o passivo ambiental, por?m representam custos elevados nas etapas de implanta??o e de opera??o. A adi??o de res?duos de min?rio de ferro como mat?ria-prima na elabora??o de produtos que s?o utilizados comercialmente tem como objetivo diminuir os impactos ambientais, transformando esses res?duos em elementos positivos na gera??o de trabalho e renda. O presente trabalho estuda a incorpora??o de res?duo de min?rio de ferro em duas argilas, uma do p?lo cer?mico da Grande Natal e outra do p?lo cer?mico da Regi?o do Serid?, ambas do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, em percentuais de 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% e 30%, com o intuito de verificar a potencialidade da incorpora??o do res?duo em matriz cer?mica. As mat?rias-primas foram caracterizadas atrav?s dos ensaios de difra??o de raios X, fluoresc?ncia de raios X, an?lise t?rmica diferencial, an?lise termogravim?trica e an?lise dilatom?trica. Os corpos-de-prova foram conformados e em seguida sinterizados nas temperaturas de 850 ?C, 950 ?C e 1050 ?C, ? taxa de aquecimento de 5 ?C/min, com iso terma de duas horas. Foram realizados os ensaios tecnol?gicos de retra??o linear de queima, absor??o de ?gua, porosidade aparente, massa espec?fica aparente, perda demassa ao fogo e tens?o de ruptura ? flex?o, com o intuito de se obter suas propriedades f?sicas e mec?nica. A argila do p?lo cer?mico da Grande Natal apresentou um aumento em torno de 65% na tens?o de ruptura ? flex?o, com um percentual ?nfimo de 0,12% na sua retra??o linear de queima, quando adicionados 5% de res?duo de min?rio de ferro na matriz de argila ? temperatura de 850 ?C, n?o comprometendo assim as p ropriedades f?sicas do produto final

Energia é um insumo estratégico na mineração, pois é fundamental na viabilidade das operações mineiras e importante na manutenção de custos operacionais baixos e competitivos. Por esse motivo, toda iniciativa que visa a busca por eficiência no consumo de energia é importante para a competitividade das mineradoras. Vários insumos energéticos são utilizados nas operações unitárias de mineração. Os exemplos mais comuns são diesel, eletricidade, gás natural, carvão e explosivos. O objetivo desse trabalho é estudar, do ponto de vista energético, as atividades realizadas no processo de desmonte de rochas, em um complexo minerador de minério de ferro, visando a melhor utilização da energia no desmonte de rocha para aperfeiçoar as operações unitárias subsequentes de processamento de minérios. Um foco maior foi dado à economia de energia nas moagens de bolas da planta de beneficiamento e concentração, provocada pelas modificações e melhorias realizadas no desmonte de rocha. A metodologia consistiu na análise de diversos desmontes de rocha variando a razão de carga de explosivos no complexo minerador alvo desse trabalho. Os produtos desses desmontes foram acompanhados até a sua entrada na planta de beneficiamento. Durante o processamento desses materiais nas moagens da planta, foram coletadas e analisadas as grandezas elétricas resultantes e comparadas com uma linha de base gerada antes do início do trabalho. Os dados foram analisados com o objetivo de visualizar a influência do aumento da razão de carga na performance energética da operação de moagem. Em paralelo, também, foram analisadas as situações operacionais e dificuldades existentes nas medições de campo e nos acompanhamentos de consumos energéticos dos processos unitários, assim como a infraestrutura necessária para que uma variável tão importante como energia elétrica possa ser monitorada de forma adequada. Por fim, foi abordada a importância, a metodologia e os resultados da redução de emissões de CO2 provenientes da economia de energia de todo o trabalho realizado em campo. Os resultados apresentados mostram que mesmo com um aumento significativo da alimentação de material compacto (maior WI) nas moagens, o consumo energético total dessa operação unitária não aumentou. Isso gerou uma potencial economia específica de energia e a consequente redução de emissões de CO2 na atmosfera, além de viabilizar o processamento de material mais compacto nas mesmas linhas de processo. Esse comportamento sugere que uma melhor energia gasta no desmonte de rocha pode impactar positivamente na produtividade e nos custos de produção do minério ao longo de sua cadeia produtiva. / Energy is a mining strategic source, critical in mining operations feasibility and important to maintain low operational costs in a competitive level. For this reason, any initiative aimed at searching for energy efficiency is important for mining companies’ competitiveness. Mining operations need several energy sources. Most common examples are diesel, electricity, natural gas, coal and explosives. This text aims to address, from an energy perspective, a study carried out in an iron ore mining complex, which had as main objective to reach a better rock blasting energy utilization to improve subsequent mining operations. A greater focus was given to energy savings in ball mills operations of a beneficiation and concentration plant, impacted by modifications and improvements made in rock blasting. Methodology consisted in monitoring several rock blasting, carried out in this mining complex, varying explosive charge ratio. Products of those rock blasting were monitored until they entered the processing plant. During ore processing in plant´s ball mills, electrical variables were collected and analyzed, comparing to a baseline generated before the beginning of this research. All data were analyzed to show influence of explosive charge ratio increase on energy performance of the milling operation. In parallel, operational issues and difficulties in field measurements of energy consumptions were described, as well as the necessary infrastructure that allows the variable electricity to be adequately monitored. Besides, the methodology and results of CO2 emissions reduction from energy savings of all fieldwork were discussed. The research data shows that even with a significant increase in compact feed (higher Work Index), total energy consumption of mill operation did not increase. This scenario generate a potential specific energy savings and consequent reduction in CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. In addition, enables more compact material to be processed in the same process lines. This behavior suggests that a better energy spent on rock blasting can positively affect productivity and ore production costs along its production chain.

Ce travail a pour but d'enquêter sur les modalités d'exploitation des ressources minérales pendant la Préhistoire récente, dans le bassin de la Méditerranée occidentale. L'étude débute par l'observation des instruments lithiques - outils macrolithiques - produits par les groupes humains préhistoriques, qui les ont utilisés dans les phases d'extraction. Ces outils sont analysés par la méthode morphologique et techno-fonctionnelle, par observation microscopiques, à grossissement faible et élevé. Toutes les étapes de cette activité sont abordées, permettant de traiter de la complexité qui tourne autour de l'extraction des minéraux. Les étapes de la chaîne opératoire sont analysées, depuis l'identification des sources d'approvisionnement - des hydroxydes de fer et de cuivre - à la production d'outils ; la recherche de matières premières lithiques, les techniques d'extraction, jusqu'aux premiers stades de transformation des minéraux. Le problème de l'exploitation du cuivre et des oxydes et hydroxydes de fer durant la Préhistoire, est un problème actuellement très discuté parce que cette activité a eu un effet important sur l'organisation des groupes préhistoriques. Une question posée est importante : comment les collectivités ont répondu à la question croissante de matières premières minérales ? Pouvaient-elles être utilisées par un seul groupe ? Obligeaient-elles à une série d'échanges et de relations sociales complexes ? Étaient-elles exploitées à des fins économiques ou liées au prestige social ? Nous ne négligeons pas pour autant certaines hypothèses en ce qui concerne les mines de cuivre et la première métallurgie qui se développe à la fin du Néolithique. / The purpose of this project is to investigate the modalities of exploitation of mineral resources during the recent Prehistory in the Western Mediterranean area. The study starts to the observation of lithic instruments - macrolithic tools - produced by prehistoric human groups, and used in the extraction and processing phases. Studied through the morphological and techno-functional method, with low and high power microscope approach. I investigated all the stages of this activity and the complexity around mineral extraction. The steps of the "chaîne opératoire", from the identification of the sources of supply - of iron ore and copper - to the production of tools ; the search for lithic raw materials, extraction techniques, up to the early stages of mineral processing. The problem of the exploitation of copper and iron ore in prehistory is a theme currently discussed, because this activity has had a major effect on the organization of the production of prehistoric groups. I ask how communities have responded to the growing request of mineral raw materials, which could be used by a single group, or produce a series of complex social relationships for economic or social prestige purposes. I don’t neglect certain hypotheses regard to the copper mines and the first metallurgy that develops into the late Neolithic.

[pt] A porosidade e o arranjo espacial dos poros são essenciais para a transferência de calor e para o processo de redução das pelotas de minério de ferro em fornos siderúrgicos. Portanto, a caracterização microestrutural das pelotas torna-se importante para o controle de qualidade do produto final, o aço, auxiliando no entendimento de seu comportamento nos altos-fornos. Atualmente, as técnicas mais utilizadas para a caracterização são a microscopia ótica, que oferece resultados somente bidimensionais e com isso não representa exatamente a realidade; e a Porosimetria por intrusão de mercúrio, na qual utiliza-se mercúrio, que é altamente nocivo à saúde humana, e avalia apenas poros conectados com a superfície. Além disso, são técnicas consideradas destrutivas, ou seja, não é possível fazer outras análises porque há a perda do material. Este trabalho propõe otimizar uma metodologia de caracterização tridimensional de porosidade em pelotas a partir da técnica de Microtomografia Computadorizada de Raios X (microCT) – que é uma técnica não destrutiva e fornece informações tridimensionais, porém apresenta limitações relacionadas ao tempo de análise e resolução – e análise e processamento das imagens geradas. Foi possível caracterizar em 3D a porosidade de amostras cedidas pela empresa Vale, a partir da distribuição espacial e obtenção do volume dos poros, além da discriminação de poros abertos e fechados por uma nova metodologia desenvolvida. Assim, a metodologia de aquisição foi otimizada, alcançando-se uma redução de tempo para todas as análises - foram necessárias 3 horas para a análise de uma pelota inteira. Confirmou-se que a resolução de fato causa grande impacto na caracterização de porosidade em pelotas de minério de ferro, evidenciado na grande diferença entre os percentuais de porosidades medidos nas diferentes resoluções alcançadas: 14,83 por cento para 7,6 micrometros, 23,69 por cento para 4 micrometros e 26,75 por cento para 2 micrometros. / [en] Porosity and pore space arrangement are essential for heat transfer and the reduction process of iron ore pellets in steelworks. Therefore, the pellet microstructural characterization becomes important for the quality control of the final product, steel, helping in the understanding of its behavior in the blast furnaces. Currently, the most used techniques for characterization are optical microscopy, which offers only two-dimensional results and thus does not represent exactly the reality; and mercury intrusion porosimetry that evaluates only pores connected to the surface, and uses mercury, which is highly harmful to human health. Moreover, they are techniques considered destructive as it is not possible to do other analyzes in the same samples, since they are destroyed. This work proposes to optimize a methodology of three-dimensional characterization of porosity in pellets using the technique of x-ray microtomography (microCT). This is a non - destructive technique that provides 3D information, but presents limitations related to the time of analysis and resolution. It was possible to characterize in 3D pellet samples provided by the Vale company, obtaining the porosity and the pore volume distribution. Open and closed porosity was also measured by a new developed methodology. Thus, the acquisition methodology was optimized, reaching a reduction of time for all the analyzes - it took 3 hours for the analysis of an entire ball. It was confirmed that the resolution had a great impact on the porosity characterization of iron ore pellets, evidenced by the great difference between the porosities measured at the different resolutions reached: 14.83 percent for 7.6 micrometers, 23.69 percent for 4 micrometers and 26.75 percent for 2 micrometers.

Submitted by Gustavo Rodrigues Macedo (rmgustavo@gmail.com) on 2016-08-30T12:23:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Estimando a retração recente no preço de minério de ferro.pdf: 1558651 bytes, checksum: ae2442fd7ce1f72ff8de6b972a7972e0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-09-08T19:05:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Estimando a retração recente no preço de minério de ferro.pdf: 1558651 bytes, checksum: ae2442fd7ce1f72ff8de6b972a7972e0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-09-21T14:11:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Estimando a retração recente no preço de minério de ferro.pdf: 1558651 bytes, checksum: ae2442fd7ce1f72ff8de6b972a7972e0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-26T12:06:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Estimando a retração recente no preço de minério de ferro.pdf: 1558651 bytes, checksum: ae2442fd7ce1f72ff8de6b972a7972e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-28 / This study presents an analysis about the sharp fall in the price of iron ore observed during the year of 2014, using econometric methods to assess the impact of the strong increase in the volumes supplied to the seaborne market combined with a slowdown in some steel-intensive sectors in China. The study briefly presents the industry and the recent developments of the iron ore seaborne market, and then uses regression models to estimate determinant factors for iron ore price. The results indicate that a significant part of the price decline observed in 2014 cannot be explained by usual factors, suggesting that the atypical conditions observed during the year determined the market equilibrium. / Este trabalho apresenta uma análise sobre a retração no preço do minério de ferro observada no ano de 2014, com o objetivo de avaliar o impacto do choque positivo na oferta aliado à desaceleração de setores demandantes de aço na China. O estudo faz uma breve apresentação da indústria e do mercado transoceânico de minério de ferro e, em seguida, estima com métodos econométricos fatores determinantes do preço. Os resultados indicam que uma parcela significativa da queda do preço do minério em 2014 não pode ser explicada por fatores usuais, sugerindo que as condições atípicas observadas naquele ano determinaram o equilíbrio no mercado de minério de ferro.

Submitted by Patricia Calazans (patmellofranco@gmail.com) on 2011-01-14T12:05:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese-Patricia-Calazans.pdf: 594538 bytes, checksum: 1945b30641fdf200c49dca14b4422b31 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza(vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2011-01-14T14:16:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese-Patricia-Calazans.pdf: 594538 bytes, checksum: 1945b30641fdf200c49dca14b4422b31 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-02-21T14:28:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese-Patricia-Calazans.pdf: 594538 bytes, checksum: 1945b30641fdf200c49dca14b4422b31 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-05-30 / This study presents a forecasting model for prices and volumes traded in the seaborne iron ore market. A VAR model (with endogenous variables with one lag) was developed, using oil prices (Brent) and an industrial production index. After testing for a unit root in the variables and discovering that none of them were stationary, the co-integration test showed that there was a long term relation between them, which was in itself stationary, eliminating the possibility of a spurious regression. As a result, the VAR model was seen to be consistent, with high adherence to forecast prices and volumes for seaborne trade, in spite of some short term imprecision. / O presente estudo apresenta um modelo de previsão do preço e do volume comercializado no mercado transoceânico de minério de ferro. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um modelo VAR, utilizando, além das variáveis endógenas com um lag de diferença, o preço do petróleo Brent e um índice de produção industrial. Após testar raiz unitária das variáveis e constatar que nenhuma era estacionária, o teste de cointegração atestou que existia relação de longo prazo entre as mesmas que era estacionária, afastando a possibilidade de uma regressão espúria. Como resultado, a modelagem VAR apresentou um modelo consistente, com elevada aderência para a previsão do preço e do volume negociado de minério de ferro no mercado transoceânico, não obstante ele tenha apresentado alguma imprecisão no curto prazo.