Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-02-08T15:37:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Luciana Arenhart Menegat_.pdf: 2130171 bytes, checksum: 31939bf69f5ffaead6152b5d73c3171a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-02-08T15:37:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Luciana Arenhart Menegat_.pdf: 2130171 bytes, checksum: 31939bf69f5ffaead6152b5d73c3171a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-19 / Nenhuma / Na literatura, ocorre divergência quanto ao tipo de relação existente entre os investimentos públicos e privados, havendo estudos que indicam uma relação de crowding in e outros de crowding out, identificando-se uma lacuna nesses estudos e a necessidade de novas investigações que determinem essa relação. Assim, defende-se a tese de que os investimentos públicos possuem impacto positivo sobre os investimentos privados, tendo-se como objetivo geral identificar se existe interdependência entre os investimentos público federal e privado no Brasil. Para esse intento, analisam-se dados trimestrais entre 2002 e 2015, por meio de um Modelo VAR e VEC, que permite estabelecer relações de curto e longo prazos entre as variáveis. Dentre os modelos testados, o melhor deles se mostrou o composto por investimento privado, investimento público, taxa de câmbio e utilização da capacidade instalada, que permite o reconhecimento de que, a cada aumento de 1% no investimento público, deve ampliar-se, em média, 0,44% o investimento privado. Destaca-se que a valorização da taxa de câmbio produz um efeito negativo significativo sobre o investimento privado, no curto prazo, mas, no longo prazo, essa relação torna-se não significativa. Os demais resultados mantiveram os mesmos sinais das elasticidades no curto e no longo prazos, resultados semelhantes aos observados na literatura. Dessa forma, confirmam as hipóteses de pesquisa fundamentadas na função Keynesiana em relação às expectativas, à renda e à taxa de juros, para explicar o comportamento do investimento público e do privado, de modo que essas hipóteses comprovam a tese fundamental desta pesquisa e permitem atingir o objetivo geral. Em síntese, foi possível determinar uma relação positiva entre investimentos público e privado, embora essa relação tenha baixa elasticidade. Ou seja, o investimento público é significante para explicar o nível do investimento privado, mas não é a variável de maior impacto, que foi a utilização da capacidade instalada (indicando as expectativas e o nível de atividade). Além disso, os investimentos privados e públicos apresentaram um movimento conjunto, não sendo possível determinar uma relação de causalidade pelo Teste de Granger entre os investimentos públicos e os privados, nesta pesquisa. Essas situações possuem embasamento teórico, o que indica que é uma relação ainda não definida e que se sugere como pesquisa futura, ou seja, trabalhos que tentem definir o sentido da causalidade entre os investimentos privados e públicos. / In the literature, there is a divergence between the type of relationship between public and private investments, with studies indicating crowding in and others crowding out, identifying a gap in these studies and the need for further investigations that determine this relationship . Thus, it is defended the thesis that public investments have a positive impact on private investments, with the general objective of identifying if there is interdependence between public and private investments in Brazil. For this purpose, quarterly data are analyzed between 2002 and 2015, using a VAR and VEC Model, which allows establishing short- and long-term relationships between variables. Among the models tested, the best of them was composed of private investment, public investment, exchange rate and utilization of installed capacity, which allows the recognition that, with each 1% increase in public investment, on average, 0.44% of private investment. It should be emphasized that the appreciation of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on private investment in the short term, but in the long run this relationship becomes insignificant. The other results maintained the same signs of elasticities in the short and long terms, results similar to those observed in the literature. Thus, they confirm the hypotheses of research based on the Keynesian function in relation to expectations, income and interest rate, to explain the behavior of public and private investment, so that these hypotheses prove the fundamental thesis of this research and allow to reach the overall goal. In summary, it was possible to determine a positive relation between public and private investments, although this relation has low elasticity. That is, public investment is significant to explain the level of private investment, but it is not the variable with the greatest impact, which was the use of installed capacity (indicating expectations and level of activity). In addition, private and public investments presented a joint movement, and it is not possible to determine a causal relationship by the Granger Test between public and private investments in this research. These situations have a theoretical basis, which indicates that it is a relationship not yet defined and that is suggested as future research, that is, works that try to define the sense of causality between private and public investments.

New keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) has become a central model to study the relation between inflation and real economic activity, notably in the framework of optimal monetary policy design. However, some recent evidence suggests that empirical data are usually at odds with the underlying theory. The model due to its inherent structure represents a statistical challenge in its own right. Since Galí and Gertler (1999) published their seminal paper introducing estimation via GMM techniques, they have triggered a heated debate on its empirical relevance. Their approach has been heavily criticised by later authors, mainly on the grounds of questionable behaviour of GMM estimator in the NKPC context and/or its small sample properties. The common criticism includes sensitivity to the choice of instrument set, weak identification and small sample bias. In this thesis I propose a new estimation strategy that provides a remedy to above mentioned shortcomings and allows to obtain reliable estimates. The procedure exploits recent advances in GMM theory as well as in other fields of statistics, in particular in the area of time series factor analysis and bootstrap. The proposed estimation strategy consists of several consecutive steps: first, to reduce a small sample bias resulting from excessive use of instruments I summarize all available information by employing factor analysis and include estimated factors into information set. In the second step I use statistical information criteria to select optimal instruments and eventually I obtain confidence intervals on parameters using bootstrap method. In NKPC context all these methods were used for the first time and can also be used independently. Their combination however provides synergistic effect that helps to improve the properties of estimates and to check the efficiency of given steps. Obtained results suggest that NKPC model can explain Czech inflation dynamics fairly well and provide some support for underlying theory. Among other things the results imply that the policy of disinflation may not be as costly with respect to a loss in aggregate product as earlier versions of Phillips curve would indicate. However, finding a good proxy for real economic activity has proved to be a difficult task. In particular we demonstrated that results are conditional on how the measure is calculated, some measures even showed countercyclical behaviour. This issue -- in the thesis discussed only in passing -- is a subject of future research. In addition to the proposed strategy and provided parameter estimates the thesis brings some partial simulation-based findings. Simulations elaborate on earlier literature on naive bootstrap in GMM context and study performance of bootstrap modifications of unit root and KPSS test.

This paper estimates rates of return across the gross wealth distribution in eight European countries. Like differential saving rates, differential rates of return matter for Post Keynesian theory, because they impact the income and wealth distribution and add an explosive element to growth models. We show that differential rates of return matter empirically by merging data on household balance sheets with long-run returns for individual asset categories. We find that (1) the composition of wealth differentiates between three socioeconomic groups: 30% are asset-poor, 65% are middle-class home owners, and the top 5% are business-owning capitalists; (2) rates of return rise across all groups; and (3) rates of return broadly follow a log-shaped function across the distribution, where inequality in the lower half of the distribution is higher than in the upper half. If socioeconomic groups are collapsed into the bottom 95% workers and top 5% capitalists, then rates of return are 5.6% for the former and 7.2% for the latter. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

This paper estimates rates of return across the gross wealth distribution in eight European countries. Like differential saving rates, differential rates of return matter for Post Keynesian theory, because they impact the income and wealth distribution and add an explosive element to growth models. We show that differential rates of return matter empirically by merging data on household balance sheets with long-run returns for individual asset categories. We find that (1) the composition of wealth differentiates between three socioeconomic groups: 30% are asset-poor, 65% are middle-class home owners, and the top 5% are business-owning capitalists; (2) rates of return rise across all groups; and (3) rates of return broadly follow a log-shaped function across the distribution, where inequality in the lower half of the distribution is higher than in the upper half. If socioeconomic groups are collapsed into the bottom 95% workers and top 5% capitalists, then rates of return are 5.6% for the former and 7.2% for the latter. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

This thesis is empirically grounded in New Zealand's restructuring of unemployment and taxation policy in the 1980s and 1990s. Theoretically it is inspired by a post-Marxist discourse analytical approach that focuses on discourses as political strategies. This approach has made it possible, through an analysis of changing citizenship discourses, to understand how the neoliberalisation of New Zealand's citizenship regime proceeded via debate and struggle over unemployment and taxation policy. Debates over unemployment and taxation in New Zealand during the 1980s and 1990s reconfigured the targets of policy and re-ordered social antagonism, establishing a neoliberal citizenship regime and centring political problematic. This construction of a neoliberal citizenship regime involved re-specifying the targets of public policy as consumers and taxpayers. In exploring the hegemonic discourse strategies of the Fourth Labour Government and the subsequent National-led governments of the 1990s, this thesis traces the process of reconfiguring citizen subjectivity initially as 'social consumers' and participants in a coalition of minorities, and subsequently as universal taxpayers in antagonistic relation to unemployed beneficiaries. These changes are related back to key discursive events in New Zealand's recent social policy history as well as to shifts in the discourses of politicians that address the nature of the public interest and the targets of social policy. I argue that this neoliberalisation of New Zealand's citizenship regime was the outcome of the hegemonic articulatory discourse strategies of governing parties in the 1980s and 1990s. Struggles between government administrations and citizen-based social movement groups were articulated to the neoliberal project. I also argue that in the late 1990s, discursive struggle between the dominant parties to define themselves in difference from each other reveals both the 'de'contestation of a set of neoliberal policy prescriptions, underscoring the neoliberal political problematic, and the privileging of a contributing taxpayer identity as the source of political legitimacy. This study shows that the dynamics of discursive struggle matter and demonstrates how the outcomes of discursive struggle direct policy change. In particular, it establishes how neoliberal discourse strategies evolved from political discourses in competition with other discourses to become the hegemonic political problematic underscoring institutional practice and policy development.

From September 19th through October 3rd, 2008, Congress debated the largest government bailout in America history—the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA). Those sixteen days generated a vibrant conversation regarding the nature and severity of America’s economic crisis and the proper role of government in responding to such juggernauts. In this dissertation I explore the rhetoric generated by this bill and its context in hopes of illuminating the more general role of rhetoric in mitigating and exacerbating crises in capitalism. My hypothesis is that, in a global capitalist economy increasingly dependent on immaterial production (i.e., finance, the Internet, mass media, etc.), economic crisis rhetoric has become as essential to economic order as monetary and fiscal policy. To explore this claim, I focus on two key rhetorical tensions that drove much of the crisis rhetoric produced. The first of these battles is a rhetorical struggle over the spatial delineation between Wall Street and Main Street, while the second is a conflict between Keynesianism and neoliberalism in a rhetorical contest over the values of government interventionism. By analyzing a variety of policy and expert discourses that constitute the parameters of these discrete areas of debate, I argue that all rely on moral and ethical appeals to substantiate their meaning and validity. At the same time, I contend that these discourses are indebted to logics of institutional form and therefore cannot be abstracted from the financial and political contexts in which they reside. This insight leads me to forward a new theory of economic crisis rhetoric called the economic imaginary. By beginning with real economic events and then taking into account the discursive and extra-discursive forces that “overdetermine” its mediated understanding, the economic imaginary offers us a more empirical and cartographic account of how economic rhetoric actually operates in society. / text

En los últimos años se ha desarollado mucho la literatura que utiliza modelos estocásticos de equilibrio económico general en economía abierta. En esta clase de modelos el primer capítulo estudia si el banco central tiene que fijarse en al inflación medida mirando al los precios al consumo (CPI) o a los precios a la producción. Se demonstra como la introducción de competencia monopolística en el mercado del trabajo y rigidez de los salarios nominales justifica el utilizo de la inflación medida sobre CPI. En el segundo capítulo el enfoque es sobre las diferentes volatilidades de la inflación entre paísos de la unión monetaria y como esto se puede relacionar con diferentes estructuras del mercado del trabajo. En el último capítulo se utiliza un modelo a dos paísos para estudiar las consecuencias de una subida del precio del petróleo sobre la inflación, los salarios reales y el producto interno bruto. / In these last years there has been an increasing literature developing DSGE Open Economy Models with market imperfections and nominal rigidities. It is the so called "New Open Economy Macroeconomics". Within this class of models the first chapter analyses the issue of whether the monetary authority should target Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation or domestic inflation. It is shown that the introduction of monopolistic competition in the labour market and nominal wage rigidities rationalise CPI inflation targeting. In the second chapter we introduce matching and searching frictions in the labour market and relate different labour market structures across European countries with differences in the volatility of inflation across the same countries. In the last chapter we use a two-country model with oil in the production function and price and wage rigidities to relate movements in wage and price inflation, real wages and GDP growth rate to oil price changes.

El modelo Neo Keynesiano estándar ha sido una de las herramientas más influyentes en debates sobre dinámica macroeconómica, política monetaria y bienestar. Además, este modelo constituye una pieza fundamental en la elaboración de los modelos macroeconómicos que muchos bancos centrales utilizan para la simulación y predicción de variables económicas como la inflación y el crecimiento. El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar la veracidad de las siguientes tres implicancias del modelo Neo Keynesiano estándar. Primero, con estabilidad de precios plena, las pérdidas de bienestar que se generan por las rigideces de precios deben ser cero. Segundo, la inflación es un fenómeno determinado por las expectativas. Tercero, el dinero no tiene un rol independiente en el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria. / The standard New Keynesian (NK) model has become one of the most influential tools in discussions of macroeconomic dynamics, monetary policy and welfare. Moreover, it has emerged as the backbone of the medium scale macroeconomic models that several central banks use for simulation and forecasting purposes. This thesis evaluates the accuracy of the following three implications of the standard NK model. First, with full price stability the welfare losses resulting from price stickiness should be zero. Second, inflation is a forward-looking phenomenon. Third, money does not play an independent role in the monetary transmission mechanism.

My dissertation is a collection of three essays that study various aspects of non-price competition among firms using fully microfounded general equilibrium models. The first two chapters, both coauthored with Benedetto Molinari, introduce advertising expenditures by firms into a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), in order to address the question of whether and how aggregate advertising expenditures provide important effects upon the aggregate economy. In particular, the first chapter provides a short-run analysis, by focusing on the implications of aggregate adverting expenditure upon the business cycle. The second chapter, in turn, focuses on long-run effects of advertising, by analyzing the implications upon the steady-state equilibrium of aggregate advertising expenditures by firms. The last chapter, by using a modified version of the canonical New Keynesian model, investigates the effect upon inflation dynamics of non-price competition among firms. / Esta tesis contiene tres ensayos que estudian varios aspectos de la competencia no en precio entre las impresas, utilizando modelos de equilibrio general micro-fundados. En los primeros dos capítulos, ambos coautorados con Benedetto Molinari, se introducen gastos en publicidad de las empresas en un modelo dinámico y estocástico de equilibrio general, a través del cual, se estudian las implicaciones de la publicidad en la economía agregada. El primer capítulo se focaliza en los efectos de corto plazo de la publicidad, analizando las implicaciones con respecto al ciclo económico. El segundo capítulo, estudia los efectos de largo plazo de la publicidad, con el objetivo de analizar las implicaciones sobra el estado estacionario del economía. En el último capítulo se utiliza una versión modificada del modelo Neo-Keynesiano que estudia los efectos de la competencia no en precio en relación la dinámica de la inflación.

Esta tesis extiende el modelo estándar Neo Keynesiano con el propósito de contestar dos preguntas: ¿cómo debe ser diseñada la política monetaria en uniones monetarias heterogéneas? y ¿cuál es el efecto de presiones competitivas sobre la dinámica de la inflación? El primer capítulo analiza el diseño de política monetaria en uniones monetarias en las cuales los países miembros muestran diferentes grados de apertura externa. Esta heterogeneidad implica que el plan de la política óptimo muestra una inclinación muy fuerte por la estabilización del tipo de cambio, con el objetivo de disminuir los diferenciales de inflación. El segundo capítulo estudia el diseño de reglas de metas en una unión monetaria con choques idiosincráticos cost-push que tienen diferentes volatilidades. El tercer capítulo estima un curva de Phillips Neo Keynesiana derivada de un modelo con entrada endógena de firmas, en el cual el número de firmas activas está inversamente relacionado con el markup deseado. Se cuantifica el efecto de las fluctuaciones del markup deseado sobre los costes marginales reales. / This thesis extends the basic New Keynesian (NK) model to answer two questions. How should monetary policy be designed in heterogeneous currency areas? What is the effect of competitive pressures on the inflation dynamics? The first chapter analyzes the monetary policy design in currency areas in which countries display different degrees of external openness. Such heterogeneity implies that the optimal policy plan exhibits a stronger motive for the currency area exchange rate stabilization in order to dampen inflation differentials. The second chapter studies the design of targeting rules in currency areas with country-specific cost-push shocks that have different volatilities. The third chapter estimates a NK Phillips curve derived from a model with endogenous firm entry in which the number of active firms is inversely related to their desired markup. It quantifies the effect of the desired markup fluctuations on the pass-through of real marginal cost. .