Die Nachfrage nach Agrarprodukten hat rapide zugenommen, besonders in schnell wachsenden Volkswirtschaften. Agrarimporte nach China gestiegen, trotz der vielfach gestiegenen Inlandsproduktion seit der Reform und Öffnung 1978. Jedoch ging die Steigerung der Agrarproduktion einher mit hohen Umweltkosten, zum einen durch eine massive Erhöhung der Inputintensität und zum anderen durch die Veränderung der Anbaumuster. In dieser Arbeit habe ich umwelt- und sozioökonomische Daten auf Kreis-Ebene analysiert, um ein grundliegendes quantitatives Verständnis der Muster, Determinanten und Ursachen der landwirtschaftlichen Landnutzungsveränderung in China von 1980 bis 2011 zu entwickeln. In Kapitel II und III habe ich die Veränderung der Anbaumuster der Hauptkultur auf Kreisebene zusammengefasst. Ich habe diese Daten mittels explorativer Geodatenanalyse und räumlich expliziter Panel-Regression untersucht, um raum-zeitliche Determinanten der Änderung in Anbaufläche und Ertrag der Hauptkultur zu identifizieren. In Kapitel IV nutzte ich diese Daten, um die Veränderung der Technischen Effizienz in der Pflanzenproduktion mit Hilfe eines stochastischen Grenzansatzes zu ermitteln, wiederum durch den Einsatz einer räumlich-ökonometrischen Panel-Analyse. Insgesamt hat sich die räumliche Konzentration von Hauptkulturen erhöht. Haupteinflussfaktor für diese Entwicklung war die Bevölkerung. Diese Analyse beleuchtet die Muster und Treiber des agrarwirtschaftlichen Landnutzungswandel für gesamt China und gibt Einblicke in die Brennpunkte des Wandels in Landnutzungsumfang und –intensität. Außerdem zeigten die Elastizitäten der Input-Veränderungen einen Trend in der Pflanzenproduktionsintensität von traditionell zu wissenschaftlich-technologischen Eingriffen. Die Ergebnisse können zur Einwicklung räumlich ausgerichteter Landnutzungspolitiken in China beitragen. Sie stellen außerdem wichtige Fallbeweise für den globalen Landnutzungswandel zur Verfügung. / Abstract Demand for agricultural products has been increasing at an unprecedented pace, particularly in rapidly growing economies such as China. Agricultural imports to China have soared despite domestic production increasing manifold since reforming and opening in 1978. However, the increase in agricultural production in China involved high environmental costs, brought about by massively increasing input intensity and by the transition in cropping patterns. In this thesis, I analysed environmental and socioeconomic data at county level to develop a solid quantitative understanding of patterns, determinants, and causes of agricultural land-use changes across all of China from 1980 to 2011. In Chapter II and Chapter III, I summarized the changes in patterns of the main crops at county level. I then examined these data with exploratory spatial data analysis and spatially explicit panel regressions in order to identify the spatial and temporal determinants of changes in area and yield of major crops. In chapter IV, I used the same dataset, but focussed on changes in technical efficiency in crop production using a stochastic frontier approach, again by employing spatial econometric panel analysis. Overall, the spatial concentration of the major crops increased, with population the main determinant for this trend. Furthermore, modern inputs, including machinery and fertilizer, were increasingly important in crop production, and land use efficiency increased slightly and varied temporally and spatially. This analysis shed light on the patterns and drivers of agricultural land-system change for all of China, including insights on hotspots of changes in land use extent and intensity. Besides, the elasticity of input changes showed the growth of crop production was shift from traditional farming practices to modern. This study is valuable to inform and spatially target land-use policies in China and provide important case evidence for global land-use change.

En Afrique sub-saharienne, l’insécurité foncière associée aux régimes de droits fonciers dits “coutumiers” ainsi que la sous-utilisation d’intrants modernes sont deux facteurs souvent évoqués comme limitant le potentiel agricole de l’Afrique. Sur cette base, les décideurs politiques ont pensé et mis en place des interventions visant à individualiser le droit de la terre et à promouvoir l’adoption d’intrants améliorés. Cette thèse utilise des données originales collectées en République Démocratique du Congo pour étudier deux exemples de politiques publiques s’inscrivant dans cette lignée et mises en oeuvre à 50 ans d’intervalle. Elle montre qu’elles ont eu des implications de court terme et de longterme allant bien au delà de celles qui sont généralement attendues. Les deux premiers chapitres s’intéressent à une politique mise en oeuvre durant la dernière décennie de la colonisation belge qui entraîna l’individualisation de terres communales et leur allocation à des familles individuelles. Ils utilisent une expérience naturelle pour étudier ses implications sur les structures sociales et les mécanismes coutumiers de résolution des conflits. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse à une politique récente de subvention d’intrants agricoles. En utilisant une expérience aléatoire, il montre que l’intervention a conduit à une augmentation de l’utilisation de semences améliorées, et analyse ses conséquences sur les décisions d’allocation des ressources en terre et en travail par les ménages. / Contending that tenure insecurity under informal “customary” land institutions and theunder-utilization of modern inputs are two important factors holding back sub-SaharanAfrican agriculture, policy makers have designed policies to shift communal rights towardmore individualization and formalization, and to promote the adoption of improved inputs.This doctoral thesis uses an original database to explore two examples of such policiesthat took place 50 years apart in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It shows that theyhad short-term and long-term implications far beyond those commonly expected. The firsttwo Chapters focus on an intervention by the Belgian Colony that took place during thelast decade of colonization. It led to the division of communal land and its allocation toindividual families. Using a natural experiment, they study its consequences for socialstructures and customary conflict resolution mechanisms. The third Chapter focuses on arecent agricultural input subsidies intervention. It uses an experimental design to show that the subsidies successfully increased the use of improved seeds, and analyses its implications for households’ labor and land allocation.

Despite the negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment, these remain as the primary contributors to the energy sector. In order to mitigate global warming risks, many countries aim at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Bioenergy crops are being used as a substitute for fossil fuels and short rotation forestry is a prime example. In order to examine the sustainability of energy crops for fuel, typical European short rotation forestry (SRF) biomass, willow (Salix spp.) and poplar (Populus spp.) are examined and compared to rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) in respect to various aspects of soil respiration and combustion heat obtained from the extracted products per hectare. Various approaches are used to look at an As-contaminated site not only in the field but also in a soil-column experiment that examines the fate of trace elements in SRF soils, and in an analysis using MICMAC to describe the driving factors for SRF crop production. Based on the cause-effect chain, the impacts of land-use change and occupation on ecosystem quality are assessed when land-use is changed from degraded land (grassland) to willow and poplar SRF. A manual opaque dynamic closed chamber system (SEMACH-FG) was utilized to measure CO2 emissions at a willow/poplar short rotation forest in Krummenhennersdorf, Germany during the years 2013 and 2014, and at a rapeseed site in 2014. Short rotation forest soils showed higher CO2 emission rates during the growing season than the dormant season – with a CO2 release of 5.62±1.81 m-2 s-1 for willows and 5.08±1.37 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 for poplars in the growing season. However, during the dormant season the soil sites with willow emitted 2.54±0.81 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 and with poplar 2.07±0.56 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1. The highest emission rates for the studied plantations were observed in July for both years 2013 and 2014, during which the highest air and soil temperatures were recorded. Correlations between soil emission of CO2 and some meteorological parameters and leaf characteristics were investigated for the years 2013 and 2014. For example, for the willow clone (Jorr) and poplar clone (Max 3), high correlations were found for each between their soil emission of CO2 and both soil temperature and moisture content. Fitted models can explain about 77 and 75% of the results for Jorr and Max 3 clones, respectively. Moreover, a model of leaf area (LA) can explain about 68.6% of soil CO2 emission for H275. Estimated models can be used as a gap-filling method, when field data is not available. The ratio between soil respiration and the combustion heat calculated from the extracted products per hectare was evaluated and compared for the study’s willow, poplar and rapeseed crops. The results show that poplar and willow SRF has a very low ratio of 183 kg CO2 GJ 1 compared to rapeseed, 738 kg CO2 GJ 1. The soil-column experiment showed that by continuing the SRF plantation at the As-contaminated site, remediation would need only about 3% of the time needed if the site was left as a fallow field. In order to understand the complex willow and poplar short rotation forestry production system, 50 key variables were identified and prioritized to describe the system as a step to enhance the success of such potentially sustainable projects. The MICMAC approach was used in order to find the direct and the indirect relationships between those parameters and to classify them into different clusters depending on their driving force and interdependency. From this, it can be summarized that in order to enhance the success of a SRF system, decision makers should be focussing on: ensuring a developed wood-fuel market, increasing farmers’ experience/training, improving subsidy regulations and recommending a proper harvesting year cycle. Finally, the impacts of land-use change and occupation on the ecosystem quality were assessed. Results show that establishing SRF plantations on degraded lands improved the ecosystem structural quality (ESQ) by about 43% and ecosystem functional quality (EFQ) by about 12%. Based on overall results, poplar and willow SRF biomass can be recommended as renewable and sustainable sources for bioenergy.:Table of Contents Acknowledgements VI Abstract VII List of Figures IX List of Tables XI List of Appendix Tables XII List of Abbreviations XIII List of Abbreviations ...continued XIV 1. Background 1 1.1. General introduction 1 1.2. Soil organic carbon (SOC) 2 1.3. Soil respiration 4 1.4. Energy and bioenergy crops 5 1.5. Willow and poplar short rotation forestry 8 1.6. Degraded lands 10 1.8. Challenges 17 1.9. Objectives of this study 18 2. Methodology 19 2.1. Site Description 19 2.2. Environmental variables 22 2.3. Measuring CO2 emissions 23 2.3.1. Soil emission of CO2 23 2.3.2. Sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature (Q10) 25 2.4. Willow and poplar leaf traits 26 2.4.1. Measuring leaf area 26 2.4.2. Leaf Area Index (LAI) 27 2.4.3. Leaf sensitivity to high and low temperatures 28 2.5. Soil characteristics 30 2.5.1. Soil sampling 30 2.5.2. Soil Moisture Content % (SMC) by gravimetric method 31 2.5.3. Soil pH 31 2.5.4. Soil Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) 31 2.5.5. Soil content of C, N, S, heavy metals and trace elements 31 2.5.6. Soil porosity 31 2.5.7. Soil pore water 32 2.5.8. Soil hydraulic conductivity (Kf) 32 2.6. Soil-column experiment 34 2.6.1. Experiment set-up 35 2.6.2. Distribution coefficients (Kd) 35 2.7. MICMAC approach 36 2.7.1. Selection of variables 36 2.7.2. Description of direct relationships 36 2.7.3. Classification of variables 37 2.8. Impacts of land-use change on the ecosystem quality 38 2.9. Computer software 40 3. Results and Discussion 41 3.1. Environmental conditions 41 3.1.1. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) 41 3.1.2. Soil temperature 42 3.1.3. Soil moisture content 43 3.2. Soil emission of CO2 46 3.2.1. CO2 emission from soil at the short rotation forestry site 46 3.2.2. Soil emission of CO2 during the day and the night 48 3.2.3. Cumulative emission of CO2 49 3.2.4. Comparison with other bioenergy crops 50 3.3. Q10 52 3.4. Willow and poplar Leaf Characteristics 54 3.4.1. Leaf Area Index (LAI) 54 3.4.2. Specific leaf area (SLA) 56 3.4.3. Leaf sensitivity to temperature 57 3.5. Correlations of soil CO2 emission with soil temperature and moisture content 59 3.6. Correlations of soil CO2 emission with plant parameters 65 3.7. Insights into soil respiration and combustion heat per area 67 3.7.1. Cumulative seasonal CO2 emission (CE) 68 3.7.2. Output energy 69 3.7.3. CO2(soil respiration) / Energy ratio 70 3.7.4. Global-warming potential (GWP) 72 3.8. Trace elements in soil 73 3.8.1. Solid-liquid partition coefficients (Kd) 74 3.8.2. Estimating time of remediation 78 3.9. Identification and Prioritization of Key Parameters for Willow and Poplar Short Rotation Forestry (SRF) Production System 82 3.9.1. Based on direct influence/dependence map: 85 3.9.2. Based on indirect influence/dependence map: 87 3.10. Impacts of Land-use Change on the Ecosystem Quality 93 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 101 5. References 102 Appendix 118

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.:AN INTERNATIONAL NETWORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SMALL FARMERS IN THE TROPICAL ANDES – GLOBAL CONVENTIONS FROM A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE S. 1 1. Introduction S. 2 2. The concept of an International Network on Climate Change S. 5 3. The outlook on an endogenous approach S. 9 4. References S. 12 ADAPTATION MEASURES S. 17 Adaptation strategies of Andean campesinos to cope with the climatic variability – Examples from the Mantaro Valley, Peru S. 18 A socio-economic analysis of livelihood strategies in rural forest depending communities in lowland Bolivia under a changing climate S. 20 Who knows what and why? Intra-cultural knowledge variation of agroforestry plants S. 21 Traditional ecological knowledge, resilience and food security: local strategies in three communities in the Yungas ecosystem, La Paz, Bolivia S. 22 Influence of agroforestry systems in risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Peruvian Andes S. 24 Assessing adaptation to climate change: Environmental and socio-economic changes in the Andes of Bolivia S. 26 Adaptive capacity of rural communities to climate change in the bio-cultural system of the Andes, Bolivia S. 28 Socio-economic analysis of farm-forestry systems: Case studies from Achamayo and Palcazu watersheds, Peruvian Andes S. 29 MONITORING AND MODELING LAND USE CHANGE S.33 Modeling and forecast of changes in land-use and land-cover caused by climate change in the Peruvian Andes S. 34 Land-use and land-cover change in Cotapata National Park – Natural integrated management area, Bolivia S. 37 Monitoring and analyzing land-use / land-cover changes using remote sensing and GIS in the Achamayo and Shullcas region, Peruvian Andes S. 39 Climate change and land-use in the Bolivian Andes S. 41 Modeling the adaptation strategies of farmers of the Andes against climate change and the related development of land-use / land-cover S. 43 MANAGEMENT OF A CHANGING LANDSCAPE S. 45 Evaluating the strategies for the management of biophysical resources in farm communities of the Mantaro Valley, Central Andes of Peru S. 46 Participative planning, monitoring and evaluation system in bio-cultural local communities S. 50 The monitoring program in Apolobamba protected area S. 51 Progress in the diagnosis of biodiversity vulnerability to climate change in Bolivia S. 52 Sectoral program of adaptation to climate change of biodiversity and ecosystems S. 53 DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE S. 55 Possible interactions between climate projections and deforestation scenarios in Bolivia S. 56 Transport and possible climate impacts of aerosols from biomass burning from the Amazon to the Bolivian Andes S. 56 Transboundary air pollution in southern Amazon of Peru S. 57 SUMMARY S. 59 Challenges presented by climate change in the Andean region: Land-use cover change and adaptive response of small farmers S. 60 List of participants and additional information S. 62

Long-term evolution of nature-society interactions can be studied by using data of land use change. In the thesis is used a detailed statistical database of Czechia (developed at Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science). The database allows monitoring changes of eight categories of land use in the period 1845-2000. Attention is devoted to the growing differentiation of land use at different scale levels, the thesis is concentrated on functional specialization of czech regions. Deepening division of labour between regions is reflected by increasing territorial concentration of land use. This process is monitored by using three methods. Ternary plots present an overview of the differentiation trends of land use. Spatial autocorrelation methods present the general development and specific areas of functional specialization in Czechia. A review by territorial heterogeneity rate provides a detailed look at the change of territorial concentration of land use. The thesis operates with three territorial classifications (hydrological, geomorphological and administrative) at two regional levels and the level of Czechia. Results are interpreted using the driving forces (such as technological development, economics, historical events, society). The final part of the thesis compares the development of...

Doctoral thesis abstract Assessment of climate change impacts on selected ecosystem services in the Czech Republic: Application of land use scenarios MSc Eliška Lorencová Climate and land use change are recognized as the greatest global environmental problems. Both considerably impact delivery of crucial ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, water flow regulation, erosion control, and food and fibre production. By combining future projections of ALARM scenarios (for years 2020, 2050 and 2080) with modelling of ecosystem services, the study aims to evaluate climate change impact on selected ecosystem services (carbon storage and sequestration, erosion control and sediment retention) in the Czech Republic. This study provides quantitative as well as spatially explicit analysis of the impacts on selected ecosystem services in the Czech Republic. Performed ecosystem service assessment indicates that spatial distribution of provision of ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and sequestration, sediment retention reflects the projected future land use changes. In case of carbon sequestration, SEDG scenario shows the lowest carbon sequestration rates accounting for 37,029.6 Gg C within the period 2000-2080. Stable vegetation cover is one of the factors that play important role in amount of sediment...

Um das 1,5°C Ziel zu verhindern, müssen bis 2020 die globalen anthropogenen CO2 Emissionen Sektor-übergreifend ihren Spitzenwert erreichen und bis 2050 auf Netto-Null-Emissionen sinken. Der AFOLU Sektor hat einen Anteil von 23% an den globalen Treibhausgasemissionen (THGE). Neben der Möglichkeit THGE zu vermeiden, bietet die Implementierung von Klimaschutzmitigation auch Synergien um die Ernährungssicherheit, Nährstoff- und Wassereffizienz zu verbessern sowie Landdegradation umzukehren. Eine kritische Bedeutung hat die Abholzung von tropischen Waldflächen durch die mehr als ein Drittel der Emissionen im Bereich des AFOLU entsteht. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden vorliegend, mit Fokus auf die Abholzung in der tropischen Zone, die indirekten Auslöser der THGE innerhalb des AFOLU untersucht. Diese Auslöser werden zunächst auf einer globalen Skala analysiert, wobei die Rolle der Variabilität von Preisveränderungen international gehandelter Waren und weiterer sozio-ökonomischer Indikatoren auf regionale Waldumwandlungsprozesse betrachtet wird. Anschließend analysiert diese Arbeit den Aspekt des Waldverlustes im Zusammenhang mit politischer Instabilität und bewaffneten Konflikten. Zudem werden regionale Lösungen zur Mitigation in weiteren Sektoren adressiert. Insbesondere wird die Möglichkeit zur THGE-Einsparung in silvopastoralen Systemen untersucht um das Zusammenspiel zwischen intensiver Viehbewirtschaftung und der Kohlenstofffixierung besser zu verstehen. Darüber hinaus werden regionale Lösungen mit Hilfe von Basisorganisationen bzw. gemeindebasierten Initiativen (CBI) zur THGE-Einsparung in den Bereichen Energie, Nahrungsmittel, Transport und Abfall erforscht. Diese Arbeit liefert vielfältige Beiträge zum Verständnis der indirekten Auslöser von Abholzung und den damit verbundenen THGE innerhalb der tropischen Zone, sowie zur Förderung lokaler Lösungen für die sektorübergreifende THG-Minderung. / Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from different sectors must peak in 2020 and reach net zero by 2050 in order to reach the 1.5°C target. The AFOLU sector represents 23% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition to its mitigation potential, the implementation of solutions in this sector also holds the synergistic potential of enhancing climate change adaptation, improving food security, nutrient and water efficiency, and reverting land degradation. Tropical deforestation is of particular importance within the AFOLU sector, representing over a third of its emissions. Against this backdrop, this thesis examines the underlying drivers of GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector, with a particular emphasis on tropical deforestation. These drivers are explored, firstly, at a global scale by addressing the role that changes in price of internationally-traded commodity products and other socio-economic variables exert on regional forest conversion. Secondly, this work examines the relationship between tree cover loss and a very under-researched driver of tropical deforestation, namely extreme political instability and armed conflict. Motivated by the urgency of climate change impacts, this thesis also explores local solutions for climate change mitigation across different sectors. In particular, the GHG mitigation role of silvopastoral systems, a type of agroforestry system, is examined to further understand the interplay between livestock intensification and carbon sequestration. In addition, more broad, local-scale solutions are examined across the energy, food, transport, and waste sectors by addressing the GHG mitigation potential of grassroots organizations, also known as community-based initiatives (CBIs). This thesis provides manifold contributions, not only to further understand some of the underlying drivers of deforestation and associated GHG emissions in the tropics, but also towards the advancement of local solutions for GHG mitigation across sectors.

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The increasing demand for food and fiber, the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as for environmental protection impose severe challenges on land systems worldwide. Solutions to support the transformation towards a sustainable development of land systems are needed. One response to the multiple challenges is the introduction of policy options aimed at steering land use activities towards a bundle of societal goals. However, it is difficult to empirically foresee the effectiveness and unintended consequences of policy options prior to their deployment. A second response is environmental education because human consumption behavior, among other factors, strongly influences natural ecosystems. However, it is a non-trivial task to develop effective communication strategies for complex topics such as sustainable land management. In both cases, modeling can help to overcome the different obstacles along the way. In this thesis, dynamic process-based social-ecological models at the individual scale are developed and analyzed to study effectiveness and unintended side effects of policy options, which promote agricultural management strategies and were intentionally designed to cope with multiple societal challenges. Two case studies of political intervention are investigated: the promotion of perennial woody crops in European agricultural landscapes for a sustainable bioeconomy and governmental supplementary feeding programs to cope with climate risks in pastoral systems in drylands. These two case studies are complemented by the development of a serious online game on sustainable land management in general that bridges the gap between land use modeling and environmental education. Simulation results of this thesis provide insights into (i) the performance of the politically promoted agricultural management strategies in meeting various intended goals such as poverty alleviation or the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services, (ii) the emergence of unintended (environmental and social) side effects such as land use conflicts, land degradation or cost explosion and (iii) the mitigation of such side effects by appropriately adjusting the design of the policy options. These insights are enabled by representing temporal as well as spatial variability in the developed models. Furthermore, different mechanistic approaches of transferability analyses based on stylized landscapes are developed and applied. They enable to check whether and in what respect policy impacts actually differ substantially between regional contexts, to identify what regional factors steer the impact and to derive indicators for grouping regions of similar policy impacts. Finally, based on a conducted survey-based evaluation and experiences from various applications, the value of the developed serious game for environmental education is revealed and discussed.Altogether, this thesis contributes to model-based decision support for steering transformation towards the sustainable development of land systems in an appropriate way. This is done by developing appropriate social-ecological modeling approaches, by performing specific policy impact analyses in two transformative agricultural systems using these models and by providing a model-based communication tool for environmental education.

Die Arbeit liefert ein umfassendes Verständnis der (1) Auswirkungen auf Landnutzung und Treibhausgas (THG)-emissionen im Zusammenhang mit der deutschen Milchproduktion im Zeitraum von 2000 bis 2015 und bis 2030, (2) Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich der Bewertung der THG-emissionen der Milchproduktion und (3) Bewertung der Anwendbarkeit des zugrundeliegenden Modells für andere Länder als Deutschland. Landnutzung stellt die Anbaufläche von Futter für bestimmte Milchleistungen dar. Die Arbeit konzentrierte sich auf die Landnutzungsänderung zwischen Grün- und Ackerland durch Änderung der Milchkuhrationen. Ein Ökobilanz-Modell wurde entwickelt, um die Auswirkungen der Entwicklung der deutschen Milchproduktion und -leistung (typische Rationen unter deutschen Bedingungen) bis 2030 für drei Weidesysteme (ohne Weide, Halbtags- und Ganztagsweide) zu simulieren. THG-emissionen wurden für die gesamte Produktionskette berechnet, beginnend mit dem Pflanzenbau. Eingangsdaten für Ökobilanz-Studien von Lebensmitteln werden von Variabilität und Unsicherheiten beeinflusst. Ein systematischer Ansatz (Kombination aus lokaler und globaler Sensitivitätsanalyse) wurde verwendet, um wesentliche Eingangsparameter für die Bewertung der THG-emissionen der Milchproduktion zu identifizieren. Zu diesem Zweck wurden drei Rationen, welche die Weidesysteme im Jahr 2030 repräsentieren, ausgewählt. Die lokale Sensitivitätsanalyse diente der Identifikation der einflussreichsten Parameter, die globale der Identifikation der wichtigsten Parameter. Die USA dienen der Prüfung der Anwendbarkeit des Modells für andere Länder. Produktionssystem, verfügbare Daten und IPCC Tier-Methoden werden mit dem deutschen System und zugehörigen Daten verglichen. Diese Arbeit liefert wichtige Erkenntnisse zur künftigen Intensivierung der Milchproduktion sowie zu Klimaschutzpotenzialen in Abhängigkeit der Fütterungsstrategie. Darüber hinaus trägt sie zur Verringerung der Unsicherheiten künftiger Studien zur Milchproduktion bei. / This thesis provides an comprehensive understanding of: (1) impacts on land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the German milk production in the period from 2000 to 2015 and further until 2030, (2) uncertainties with regard to the assessment of GHG emissions of milk production and (3) evaluation of applicability of the underlying life cycle assessment (LCA) model for countries other than Germany. Land use represents the acreage needed to provide sufficient feed for certain milk yields. This research focusses on land use change between grassland and cropland as an effect of changing dairy cow diets. A LCA model, which reflects typical dairy cow diets under German conditions, was developed to simulate the impact of the German development of milk production and yield until 2030 for three grazing systems (zero-, restricted and unrestricted grazing). GHG emissions have been calculated for the whole production chain, beginning with crops cultivation. Input parameter of LCA studies of food products are affected by variability and uncertainty. A systematic approach (combining local and global sensitivity analysis) was used to identify essential input parameters for the assessment of GHG emissions of milk production. Three diets representing the grazing systems in the year 2030 were selected for this purpose. Local sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most influential parameters, global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the parameters which are most important. The United States of America are taken as example to verify the applicability of the LCA model for other countries. Production system, available data, and IPCC tier methods were compared with the German system and data. This thesis provides important insights on future intensification of milk production along with climate change mitigation potentials depending on the feeding strategy. Moreover, it contributes to the reduction of uncertainties of future LCA studies of milk production.