Cette thèse se propose d'analyser les effets des ruptures dans les trajectoires professionnelles sur l'état de santé des individus en Europe. Nous considérons ici deux ruptures : l'une en début de carrière -- l'entrée sur le marché du travail dans une économie dégradée -- et l'autre en fin de carrière -- le passage à la retraite. Entre ces deux périodes critiques, nous portons un intérêt spécifique à l'impact sur la santé d'une rupture cette fois anticipée : la peur de perdre son emploi. Nos analyses empiriques combinent des données d'enquêtes Européennes et Britanniques. Afin de pallier les problèmes d'endogénéité propres à toute analyse empirique du lien entre santé et trajectoire professionnelle, nous exerçons des chocs exogènes sur la carrière des individus. Nous utilisons ainsi une expérience naturelle (la crise pétrolière de 1973) et les caractéristiques institutionnelles telles qu’elles sont définies dans la législation de chaque pays Européen (âges légaux de passage à la retraite, degrés de protection de l’emploi, règles de scolarité obligatoire). Les résultats soulignent l'effet néfaste des ruptures au cours de la vie professionnelle sur la santé des individus, à la fois à court et à long terme.Notre projet se propose d’identifier un lien causal entre l'activité professionnelle des individus et leur catégorie d'obésité via l’utilisation de techniques économétriques spécifiques tenant compte de l'endogénéité et l'utilisation des données de la cohorte GAZEL (qui suit depuis 1989 20 000 volontaires employés chez EDF-GDF). / The main objective of this thesis is to analyse the health consequences of career shocks in Europe. It considers two actual career shocks over the lifecourse: leaving full-time education in a bad economy, and, at the other end of the age spectrum, retiring. In-between these two critical periods, it investigates how an anticipated career shock -- i.e. anticipated job loss -- damages health. Empirical analyses are conducted using large European and British surveys. We use institutional features and natural experiments to find neat instruments for causal identification~: the existence of compulsory schooling laws, the cross-country variation in employment protection legislations, the cross-country variation in retirement systems and the 1973 oil crisis. The results emphasise the causal and health-damaging impact of career shocks, both in the short and in the long-term.

The research examines how the banking sector in Zambia faired in the wake of the global financial crisis, and the ensuing global recession that followed. Even prior to the crisis, weaknesses within the Zambian Banking sector were already identified by a World Bank/IMF financial sector assessment. The research therefore aims to gain a better understanding of the potential destabilizing factors to the Zambia Banking sector, and provide key players (Policymakers, Regulators and Banks) with knowledge on how best to manage and overcome these adverse effects, in times of a financial crisis. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is estimated using commonly identified macroeconomic and banking sector indicators from selected Anglophonic African countries that were affected by the crisis at the time. The selected variables include, Return on Assets (ROA); Non-Performing Loans (NPL); Foreign Assets (FA); Interbank Lending Rate (IBLR); Liquidity (LQD); Credit to Private Sector (PRV); Foreign Exchange Rate (FOREX); Inflation (INFL); Copper Price (CU); and a ‘dummy’ variable (CRISIS). The direction of causality between the variables is further established using the VAR Granger Causality Test. Results of the model suggests that although the CRISIS was found to cause the ROA, it had no significant effect on its outcome, implying that overall the crisis had very little effect on the Zambian banking sector’s profitability. It was the liquidity (LQD) variable instead which was found to have a significant effect on the ROA. In times of a financial crisis, it is therefore recommended that policy makers and regulators apply more stringent regulatory and monetary policy instruments. This would counter the adverse effects on the liquidity and profitability of the Banking sector, and thus ensure its stability.

When faced with an investment opportunity in commercial real estate, the investor requires knowledge of the discount rate since it can be used to convert expected future cash flows from the property in today's terms and in doing so, place a value on the property. The so-called required rate of return would be the appropriate conversion rate since it compensates the investor for risk and, if attainable, will induce the investor to invest. An inaccurate assessment of the discount rate could, depending on the direction of the error, lead to a potential over or under estimation of the property value. A number of single or multiple variable frameworks for required return have been derived by other researchers for the US, UK and EU property markets. Each of the variables encountered in these frameworks acts as a proxy for some aspect of systematic risk associated with the investment. However, locally, such models are either not extensively published or well described and are limited to single explanatory variables. Some professionals prefer to avoid frameworks and simply divert to qualitative, gut-feel and experienced based considerations in order to derive at required return rate. This dissertation addressed the possible local need for an explanatory framework of required return on commercial property. The scope of work entailed: (i) a review of the literature to establish the theoretical determinants of return and (ii) an empirical study to test a short-list of parameters for Retail, Offices and Industrial sites in Cape Town, Pretoria, Bloemfontein and Durban, respectively. Three categories of explanatory variables were identified: (i) Capital market variables and alternative investment opportunities in the form of stocks on the JSE, (ii) economic activity indicators and (iii) property market fundamental parameters. The empirical study entailed a three-phase methodology, which included the following steps: (i) data sampling and processing, (ii) screening variables through the simple regression and correlation coefficients and (iii) multiple regression complemented by statistical significance testing. Between 69% and 98.2 % (alpha=O.1) of the variation in returns could be explained in terms of the variation by the explanatory variables that passed the rigorous screening process. The relative good results are likely to be related to the higher explanatory power of the multi-factor approach. The remaining unexplained portion of return can potentially be decreased by using larger samples and pursuing some of the other recommendations for additional research. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.

This thesis argues that state-building in Sudan in the modern era cannot be understood without a multilevel analysis of the links between water, civilisation and power. More particularly, it focuses on the hydropolitical economy of the Al-Ingaz Revolution since its launch in 1989. I analyse the efforts by Sudan's military-Islamist leaders at material and immaterial transformation of society through visions of hydro-engineering civilisation. “Economic Salvation” -the rescue of Sudan’s economy through a “hydro-agricultural mission” that will create an ‘Islamic’ middle class- is central to this ideology. The hydro-agricultural mission is a revolutionary attempt at Islamist state-building through a hyper-ambitious Dam Programme and an Agricultural Revival in Sudan’s riverain core. It intends to entrench Al-Ingaz in power by delivering for those riverain constituencies and external partners on the Arabian Peninsula and in East Asia deemed critical to continued hegemony. This thesis is fundamentally about Islamist Sudan's hydropolitical economy, but makes broader contributions. First, it highlights how, far from being exceptional, the hydro-agricultural mission is deeply embedded in historical ways of thinking about water, civilisation and power in Sudan and the Nile Basin more broadly, echoing assumptions, policy prescriptions and logics of political control and high-modernist development that have been salient for almost 200 years. In the past, grand state-building projects, predicated on the dream of controlling the water to control the people, have been characterised by high levels of violence and developmental mirages in the desert. I show why, under military-Islamist rule, this experience is being repeated in Sudan. Second, this thesis is situated in wider debates in the early 21st century, with fears about resources crunches proliferating amidst rising global commodity prices and the impact of climate change. The idea that environmental scarcity, as an exogenous variable, is the main shaper of societies and their politics is enduring, but both theoretically and empirically misguided. Moreover, it has often been manipulated by elites in processes of power and wealth accumulation that reproduce the very societal and ecological problems they claim to be resolving. I argue that the links between water, civilisation and power in Sudan highlight not just the endogeneity of environmental scarcity to political-economic processes, but also the violent consequences of a modernist paradigm that is seen by ruling elites as both enlightened science and the route to hegemony while reproducing conflict at the local, national and regional level.

When faced with an investment opportunity in commercial real estate, the investor requires knowledge of the discount rate since it can be used to convert expected future cash flows from the property in today's terms and in doing so, place a value on the property. The so-called required rate of return would be the appropriate conversion rate since it compensates the investor for risk and, if attainable, will induce the investor to invest. An inaccurate assessment of the discount rate could, depending on the direction of the error, lead to a potential over or under estimation of the property value. A number of single or multiple variable frameworks for required return have been derived by other researchers for the US, UK and EU property markets. Each of the variables encountered in these frameworks acts as a proxy for some aspect of systematic risk associated with the investment. However, locally, such models are either not extensively published or well described and are limited to single explanatory variables. Some professionals prefer to avoid frameworks and simply divert to qualitative, gut-feel and experienced based considerations in order to derive at required return rate. This dissertation addressed the possible local need for an explanatory framework of required return on commercial property. The scope of work entailed: (i) a review of the literature to establish the theoretical determinants of return and (ii) an empirical study to test a short-list of parameters for Retail, Offices and Industrial sites in Cape Town, Pretoria, Bloemfontein and Durban, respectively. Three categories of explanatory variables were identified: (i) Capital market variables and alternative investment opportunities in the form of stocks on the JSE, (ii) economic activity indicators and (iii) property market fundamental parameters. The empirical study entailed a three-phase methodology, which included the following steps: (i) data sampling and processing, (ii) screening variables through the simple regression and correlation coefficients and (iii) multiple regression complemented by statistical significance testing. Between 69% and 98.2 % (alpha=O.1) of the variation in returns could be explained in terms of the variation by the explanatory variables that passed the rigorous screening process. The relative good results are likely to be related to the higher explanatory power of the multi-factor approach. The remaining unexplained portion of return can potentially be decreased by using larger samples and pursuing some of the other recommendations for additional research. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.

Στη παρούσα μελέτη, αρχικά παρουσιάζονται από θεωρητική πλευρά θέματα που αφορούν το ρυθμιστικό πλαίσιο, τον πιστωτικό κίνδυνο, τα μη εξυπηρετούμενα δάνεια και οι έννοιες Ευρωζώνη και Ευρωσύστημα. Ακολούθως, με τη χρήση ενός οικονομετρικού μοντέλου επιχειρήθηκε ο προσδιορισμός των παραγόντων εκείνων που επηρεάζουν τον δείκτη μη εξυπηρετούμενων δανείων στην Ευρωζώνη. Ο δείκτης των μη εξυπηρετούμενων δανείων ουσιαστικά συνιστάται ως προσεγγιστική μεταβλητή του πιστωτικού κινδύνου και την περίοδο αυτή της παρατεταμένης ύφεσης αποτελεί ενδεχομένως τη μεγαλύτερη απειλή που αντιμετωπίζουν τα διάφορα τραπεζικά συστήματα όλου του κόσμου. Χρησιμοποιώντας συγκεντρωτικά δεδομένα (aggregate data) σε ένα πάνελ 13 χωρών της Ευρωζώνης για την περίοδο 2000-2008 και με την βοήθεια της fixed effect προσέγγισης, εντοπίστηκαν ισχυρές συσχετίσεις μεταξύ του NPL και διαφόρων μακροοικονομικών και τραπεζικών (banκ specific) παραγόντων. Πιο συγκεκριμένα, τα ευρήματα της εμπειρικής διερεύνησης, επιβεβαιώνουν τη διεθνή βιβλιογραφία καθώς από πλευράς τραπεζικών μεταβλητών ισχυρή επίδραση στο δείκτη μη εξυπηρετούμενων δάνειων εμφανίζει ο δείκτης κεφαλαιακής επάρκειας, ο δείκτης δάνεια προς καταθέσεις και ο δείκτης των μη εξυπηρετούμενων της προηγούμενης χρονιάς. Τέλος, από μακροοικονομικής πλευράς το δημόσιο χρέος και η ανεργία φαίνεται να είναι δυο επιπλέον παράγοντες που επιδρούν στη διαμόρφωση του δείκτη, αποτυπώνοντας ότι η κατάσταση της οικονομίας των χωρών της ευρωζώνης συνδέεται άρρηκτα με τον δείκτη NPL. / In this study, from the theoretical point of you, issues regarding regulation, credit risk, non-performing loans, Eurozone and Eurosystem are presented. Then, implementing an econometric model it was examined which factors influence the ratio of nonperforming loans in the Eurozone. It is worthwhile to mention that the ratio of NPLs can be used as a proxy of credit risk. Nowadays, credit risk seems to be the greatest risk, which banking systems are facing all over the world. Particularly, Using aggregate data on a panel of 13 countries for the period 2000-2008 and applying the fixed effect approach, strong correlations between the NPL and various macroeconomic and bank specific factors are confirmed. Our findings largely agree with the literature as, in terms of bank-specific variables, the capital ratio, the loans to deposits ratio and the rate of non-performing loans of the previous year appear to exert a powerful influence on the non-performing loans rate. At the same time, from a macroeconomic perspective, the public debt and unemployment seem to be two additional factors that affect the index, revealing that the state of the economy of Eurozone countries is clearly linked to the NPL index.

This thesis investigates policy formulation and implementation processes in Zambia. A number of issues emerge with respect to the weaknesses of the system and how policy decisions worsened Zambia's economic performance instead of improving it. The Kaunda era policies of nationalization had an adverse impact on productivity of industries as well as affecting the resource flow from donors and business houses. On the other hand President Chiluba's reforms in the 1990s have had both positive and negative impacts on the people of Zambia. The rapid privatization and liberalization affected employment levels thereby worsening the poverty levels. Further, the liberalization brought in stiff competition from other countries forcing most manufacturing companies to close down. The policy environment based on the Bretton Woods Institutions seems not to be working as result of not taking into account the local Zambian situation. On the other hand, there were positive macroeconomic developments such as growth in GDP, lowering of inflation and stabilizing of exchange rates as from 1996. This has however not improved the living standards of the people. In Zambia, the shifts back and forth between strong and weak planning institutions have negatively affected policy development and implementation. There has been uncoordinated policy development; as a result, some policies in the major sectors are contradictory while in other cases policies are not linked to the resource envelope, making them un-implementable. Secondly, the institutional framework for policy development is not effective. There is generally lack of coordination among ministries, provinces and other stakeholders in planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of development programmes. This thesis urges that the improving planning capacities at the national, provincial and district levels should improve the processes of policy development and implementation in Zambia, which will in turn help to reduce poverty. Further, the districts should be the centre for the bottom-up process. In order to carryout this responsibility, efforts should be made to improve their capacities. As for the top-down process, the Sector Advisory Groups should continue to participate in the planning, monitoring and evaluation so as to contribute to policy formulation and implementation. These should be coordinated by the National Development Coordinating Committee (NDCC) through a Planning Bureau. / Development Studies / D. Litt. et Phil. (Development Studies)

In the last decade, scholars have recognized economic development and modernization as crucial themes in the history of the twentieth century and the ‘global Cold War.’ Yet while historians have written lucid histories of the role of the social sciences in American foreign policy in the Third World, far less is known on the Soviet Union’s ideological and material support during the same period for countries like Egypt, India, Ethiopia, Angola, or – most prominently – Afghanistan. This dissertation argues that the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan is best understood as the final and most costly of a series developmental interventions staged in that country during the latter half of the twentieth century by Afghans, Soviets, Americans, Germans and others. Cold War-era Afghanistan is best understood as a laboratory for ideas about the nation-state and the idea of a ‘national economy.’ One can best understand Afghanistan during that period less through a common but ahistorical ‘graveyard of empires’ narrative, and more in terms of the history of the social sciences, the state system in South and Central Asia, and the ideological changes in ideas about the state and the economy in 20th century economic thought. Four chapters explore this theme, looking at the history of the Soviet social sciences, developmental interventions in Afghanistan prior to 1978, a case study of Soviet advisors in eastern Afghanistan, and Soviet interventions to protect Afghan women. Making use of new materials from Soviet, German, and American archives, and dozens of interviews with former Soviet advisors, this dissertation makes a new and meaningful contribution to the historical literature on the Soviet Union, Central Asia, and international history.

從2003年下半年開始，面對大陸經濟結構中的不合理投資，尤其是房地產行業的過快與過大的投資，對大陸經濟正常的永續發展，帶來巨大的隱患，大陸宏觀調控連續祭出了一系列緊縮的政策，將積極財政貨幣政策改為穩健財政貨幣政策，提高利率、控制土地與信貸、首次使用浮動匯率等等措施，所有這些都對房地產行業帶來了巨大的影響。 大陸房地產市場在經過2006年至2007年的快速上漲階段之後，由於大陸祭出了緊縮的貨幣政策與限制國外熱錢進入大陸房地產的規定之後，在大部分的城市中，房價出現了下降的情況，市場購買者觀望氣氛濃烈，在這樣的整體大環境下，能否制定合理的行銷策略，打開市場的通路，在房地產市場已出現反曲點的情況下，取得優異的銷售成績，對於房地產業者來說，將顯得十分重要。本研究介紹了房地產行銷管理的概念和發展階段，分析了房地產行銷現階段所存在的問題，提出了解決這些問題的整體解決方案。 為了協助投資北京房地產的台商，適應房地產市場新的變化，認識房地產市場的規律與發展策略，及時進行策略性的調整。本研究在研究者本身對房地產行業特殊性認識經驗的基礎上，以研究者自行設計的北京房地產產業鏈與波特五力模型相整合的模型為基礎，對影響北京房地產企業策略的共通性的因素做了審慎的實證分析。運用實證分析可以有效判斷出，大陸的宏觀調控政策並不是打擊房地產，而是穩定房價，引導投資合理的佈局。 本研究運用對比分析，借鏡於國外和其他地區的房地產市場發展的經驗，從經濟學的角度為大陸房地產行業的發展正本清源，理清房地產與工業化、城市化、消費水準、人均GDP 的互動關係與發展規律，聚焦於重點分析北京地區的城市規劃、房地產總供給量與總需求量的平衡關係。對於北京高度國際化的特點，也重點分析了外資對北京房地產的重要影響。 針對企業一般策略選擇模型的分析，本研究掌握北京房地產企業的策略篩選的一般性原則。比較大陸與海外房地產企業的策略特色，希望在房地產行業發展宏觀調控、經濟泡沫等複雜的新變化之下，為北京房地產企業的策略篩選提供有價值的借鏡功能。 有鑑於全球經濟的走緩和大陸經濟的未來挑戰，北京從去年底今年初以來，其實早以推展「後京奧時代」的經濟重編計劃，包括製造業西移、品牌產業的打造、區域經濟的重劃，及有計劃的對外投資等。根據很多經濟專家的研判，在2008年北京奧運之後，大陸經濟成長勢必降溫，但還不致於泡沫化，本研究也證實這樣的看法，其主要理由有三:第一，2007年大陸出超佔GDP比重約為8.1%，所佔比率尚低，雖然受到次貸危機的衝擊可能下修，但龐大的內需市場相對受到的衝擊較小，仍可維繫經濟的持續成長，預估2009年經濟成長仍可維持在8%以上(參見附錄C)。 第二，大陸經濟規模大，相較於過去承辦奧運的小國家而言，症候群相對較小(參見附錄D)，且北京佔全中國人口只有1%左右，佔全中國GDP的比重也不到5%，在奧運後陷入不景氣的機率相對降低。第三，大陸當局政策調整的靈活度大，從過去強調嚴控通膨，轉為強調優先維持「平穩較快」的經濟成長，並維持抑制通膨的力道。同時，最近大陸放寬對中小企業融資、紡織品、成衣出口退稅重新上調等措施，均有助於緩和外部經濟情勢之逆轉。透過實證分析，本研究得出2008年北京奧運之後，北京房地產之成長力道勢必降溫，但還不致於泡沫化。 2008年北京奧運之後，大陸經濟的問題，看似房市的泡沫化，其實不是類似於日本的流動性過剩問題，本質上大陸屬於二元經濟，地方政府的創GDP工程，例如國企、形象工程、基礎建設工程等過熱，故要有一定程度的限制與保護，但民企過冷，政府誤認是流動性過剩，進行宏觀調控，反而加速二元經濟，使過冷的民企部門更冷。在北京奧運結束之後，中共把振興經濟的重心放在刺激內需。本研究預期，最有可能從大陸內需新政中受惠的產業首推動住房等產業，官方可能以補貼經濟房與雙限房(指限制售價及建築面積的房子)的做法，滿足中下階層民眾的居住需求，但北京當局只增加經濟房供給量，相關救市措施可能性不大，短期內宜先觀望。 摩根史丹利在2008年所發表的研究報告指出，中國大陸房地產市場崩潰(即價格與成交量大幅下跌)的可能性高，房地產商減價促銷的情況已經在大陸多個主要城市出現，大陸房地產市場在2008年上半年遭受嚴峻考驗，預估2008下半年也難有突破。地產企業除了出現獲利顯著下滑之外，也可能面臨嚴重的償付能力困難，但大陸房地產市場長期仍然看好。 大陸房地產在歷經五年的快速成長之後，如今已面臨調整期。2008年1至6月大陸房屋銷售面積達2兆5892萬平方公尺，比2007年同期下降7.2%。目前大陸的房價還很高，一般老百姓仍買不起房子，房價還會再大幅下調，只要房價下來之後，銷售量自然會上去，過去幾年大陸的房地產發展太快，對資源造成嚴重的排擠效應。 目前大陸營建業正處於水深火熱的境地，房地產行業發展到2008年，所面臨的最大困難就是缺錢，從所有上市房地產公司的報告就可以清礎地看出來。大陸房地產業缺錢的主要原因有四點，一是國際形勢不好，房地產商的境外融資計劃基本上全部泡湯；二是大陸國內實行緊縮貨弊政策，對房地產行業控制得更緊；三是開發商過去兩年不理智地爭地王，大搞土地儲備，錢花過了頭；四是2008年初以來，全大陸房屋成交量急遽下滑，至2008年8月底已下滑近50%，這一點是最重要的因素。 大陸房地產在未來可能出現五種情況， 一是失業率上升；二是住宅打折求售，但成交量急遽萎縮。住宅市場從來都是買漲不買跌；三是地方政府的出讓金收入大幅度減少；四是住宅開發商萎縮、虧損、被併購，甚至破產；五是銀行的金融安全，受到房貸申請人停止還款，和住宅開發商的不良貸款的雙重威脅。 目前當務之急，是要給市場信心，官方應儘快鬆綁房地產行業貸款，解除綑綁房地產行業的各種枷鎖，惟有如此，未來大陸的房地產市場才能長期看好。 房地產景氣循環，大致是5至7年，預估今年與明年都不會有大行情；不過這段時間正好是佈局的最佳時機，保留現金，逢低強進土地與良好的專案，才有可能在下一波大多頭循環時，有所表現，但好的標地物，大都需要資金、機會與時間的等待，往往是可遇而不可求。而不論是募集資金，或是組織資產管理公司，目前宜處於熱身階段，等市場更為積弱不振，得以花費更少力氣適時進場，快穩準狠兼備，成為有如獅子在草原稱霸一般的房市超級贏家。 / To correct some unhealthy development in the Mainland China’s economic structure, especially the overheated investment in the real estate industry, which could cause huge harm to Mainland China’s economy. Mainland China has started macro economic control since the second half of 2003.Those financial and monetary policies have been set to control land and credit, by using flexible-exchange rate, higher interest etc.Thus at the same time all new changes will take place in real estate market , in addition to new threats. We know it is very important for Beijing housing enterprises to understand the law of real estate and get in line with its new changes.In this paper,by combining analysis of its particularity and Porter’s five force analysis, the researcher design a model of Beijing real estate industry structure.With this model, the researcher analyzed the common factors of Beiing real estate contruction companies.We can see it is sure that the Mainland China government wants to control macro economy to keep housing price stable, and not heating the real estate market. By contrastively analyzing development experience of other countries and areas in relation to real estate, we hope we can find the solutions for the Mainland China .We also hope to identify the connection between real estate and industrialization, urbanization, consumption level, and average GDP.On one hand, we analyze city planning of Beijing.On the other hand we balance between gross supply and demand in real estate.With the globalization of the world economy, we also discuss that more overseas investment are getting into Beijing’s real estate market . By constructing the strategic model, we can establish suitable development strategy or implementation.We can learn from inside and outside real estate companies, and in dramatic competition, the research hope some modern strategic management theory can be applied to those Beijing real estate companies.

Achieving food security under climate change is one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. The challenge becomes even greater when contextualised within our current limited understanding of how the food system functions as a complex, adaptive socio-ecological system, with food security as one of its outcomes. Adding climate change into this already complex and uncertain mix creates a ‘wicked problem’ that must be solved through the development of adaptive food governance. The thesis has 4 key aims: <ul><li>1. To move beyond an understanding of food security that is dependent solely on agricultural production, and therefore the reliance of future food security predictions on production data based on climate model inputs.</li><li>2. To ground the theoretical aspects of complex adaptive systems with empirical data from multi-level case studies.</li><li>3. To investigate the potential role of the private sector in food system futures.</li><li>4. To analyse food system dynamics across scales and levels.</li></ul> In order to realise these aims, a complex adaptive system (CAS) approach within the GECAFS food system framework is employed to multilevel case studies in South Africa and Brazil. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of the private sector and how these vital actors, comprising a powerful component of the global food system, can be mobilized towards building adaptive capacity for a more resilient food system. Critically, the private sector is often left out of academic discussions on adaptation, which tend to focus more on civil society and governmental capacity to adapt. This thesis provides novel insight into how the power of the private sector can be harnessed to build adaptive capacity. The findings of the thesis showed that applying CAS to issues of governance has three important implications: The first is that in a complex system, it is critical to maintain diversity. This can translate into appreciating a multiplicity of viewpoints in order to reflect a range of decision-making options. This finding makes the case for closer synergy between the public and private sectors around areas like product development and distribution that includes an emphasis on enhancing food security under climate change. In the developing country context, the inclusion of smallholders and local entrepreneurs is also vital for building adaptive capacity. In this sense, it is possible for business to help achieve development goals by developing the capacity of those most vulnerable to socio-economic and environmental shocks. Secondly, adapting to climate change and other environmental and economic pressures will require a shift in mind-set that embraces the uncertainty of the future: ‘managing for uncertainty rather than against it’. This entails a shift in governance mindset away from linear thinking to a decision-making paradigm that is more flexible to deal with unexpected shocks. The third implication for governance is the need to understand the complex interplay of multiple interlinking processes and drivers that function across many levels and sometimes have exponential positive feedbacks in the food system. Adaptive governance is an iterative process, but as more is learnt and information is retained in the system, the ideal is that the beneficial processes that lower inequality and increase food security will start to be reinforced over those that entrench the current inequality in the food system.