The fact that people prefer to hold domestic equities than foreign ones is still a puzzle for most economists. Although many factors are seemed to be reasonable explanations, two factors, non-traded goods and transaction costs, are usually regarded as the main ones to explain the puzzle. In spite of their importance, the question of which factor has better ability of explaining the puzzle has been the central issue among economists for a long period. In this paper, we will not only try to clarify the issue by examining the role of each factor playing in the puzzle, but also attempt to find out the reasons of disagreements among economists. A modern intranational macroeconomics approach will also be adopted to verify the discussion in this paper. Without surprise, it seems that a model with transaction costs has better ability to explain the puzzle since it's more general in classifying the tradability of goods.

Central banks use a series of relatively small interest rate changes in adjusting their monetary policy stance. This persistence in interest rate changes is well documented by empirical monetary policy reaction functions that feature a large estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The two hypotheses that explain the size of this large estimated coefficient are monetary policy inertia and serially correlated macro shocks. In the first part of my dissertation, I show that the effect of inertia on the Federal Reserve’s monthly funds rate adjustment is only moderate, and smaller than suggested by previous studies. In the second part, I present evidence that the temporal aggregation of interest rates puts an upward bias on the size of the estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The third part of my dissertation is inspired by recent developments in the housing market and the resulting effect on the overall economy. In this third essay, we show that high loan-to-value mortgage borrowing reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Inflation expectations have been of great interest to economists because they predict how agents in an economy set prices and react to changes in various macroeconomic variables. The existence of Keynesian liquidity traps in Japan and the United States have helped emphasize the importance of inflation expectations, especially when monetary policy is rendered ineffective and there is almost perfect substitutability between money and bonds due to the zero bound condition of interest rates. Given the canonical theories of rational and adaptive expectations, this paper will use a simple model of the economy to measure the effect of various macroeconomic variables on the formation of inflation expectations. It will test to see how consumers, economists and the market measure and forecast inflation both in the short and in the long run.

The ongoing conflict between Thailand’s red shirt and yellow shirt parties is not purely political. This tension is rooted in a renewed awareness of regional economic and social inequality, a byproduct of rapid economic growth in the past. This thesis seeks to understand the overall consequences of unequal economic development in Thailand, as the rationale for asserting that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program is an appropriate policy tool for the ongoing reconciliation efforts.

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of the series.

From the 1970s onwards, it is argued that central banks should be independent from politicians since the latter have an interest in seeking populist interventions to the conduct of the monetary policy. Additionally, it is often maintained that the sole aim of a central bank should be to seek price stability. Despite the seemingly neutral and objective tone of these arguments, central bank independence can find its meaning as a part of Neoliberalism, which restructured the economic administration of the state. The main objective of this thesis is to analyse the notion of central bank independence and the case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in a multidisciplinary manner, in order to reveal its political and administrative implications.

published_or_final_version / Economics / Master / Master of Social Sciences

This study looks at the relationship between charter school presence and neighborhood quality in Los Angeles. Using data from the Los Angeles Department of Education, Zillow Real Estate, and the Los Angeles Sheriff, this paper attempts to find whether changes in charter presence influence the price of surrounding real estate or the occurrence of serious and petty crimes. The results find that charter schools tend to be associated with a decrease in home sale prices. The results on crime imply that crime increases upon the opening of charter schools, however they are statistically insignificant.

有鑑於台灣銀行保險市場重要性之提升，金融各界皆高度關注銀行保險市場的發展，然而國內尚缺乏專業客觀的指標以全面地衡量銀行保險市場，僅能就每月公布之新契約保費收入數據觀察銀行保險市場。因此本研究目的為建置多元化銀行保險市場指標，分別為總體經濟因素指標、銀行保險業務趨勢指標與市場專業意見指標，以提供市場各界評估銀行保險市場之發展。 　 總體經濟因素指標部分，本研究利用多元迴歸模型，分析對於我國銀行保險市場有顯著影響力的因子，包括一年期定存利率、景氣對策信號分數、超額儲蓄率、金融保險業從業人員數與台灣整體銀行分行數等，並據以建置總體經濟因素指標。銀行保險業務趨勢指標部分，本研究利用移動平均法，觀測銀行保險市場的業務趨勢，以長短期均線比較方式，用以建構評估銀行保險業務變動趨勢。　　市場專業意見指標部分，本研究蒐集彙整銀行保險市場專業經理人及從業人員之意見，以建構市場專業意見指標，透過上述三項指標提供市場更完整專業的市場資訊與預測工具，使本研究建置之指標不僅於量化數據而兼顧質化意見。 / Bancassurance is unquestionably one of the most important trend in Taiwan’s financial market, and has received much attention from both researchers and policymakers. The aim of this article is to construct bancassurance indicators for Taiwan, which provide more diverse and professional ways to measure and predict bancassurance market. We build three indicators, they are about the influence of macroeconomic factors, the trend in bancassurance, and the professional advice from bancassurance experts, and we name them Macro-indicator, Trend-indicator, and Expert-indicator respectively. Every indicator are built with different methods, the Macro-indicator is constructed by creating a multiple regression model that is using first year premium for bancassurance as a dependent variable with macroeconomic factors as predictor variables, which are 1-year interest rate, monitoring indicator, excess saving rate, number of employees in financial market, and number of bank branches in Taiwan. Also, we use the concept of moving average method in technical analysis to develop the Trend-indicator, which can be used to examine trends and patterns as well as infer future trends by observing the momentum in bancassurance market. To　provide the market more insights, we set up an electronic platform to collect professional advices and ideas from bancassurance experts so that we could understand bancassurance market condition and direction more objectively.

Cette thèse étudie les impacts macroéconomiques des transferts de fonds dans les pays d'origine des migrants. Six chapitres traitent des problématiques liées à la croissance, à la volatilité et aux politiques publiques. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse aux effets des envois de fonds sur la croissance à travers leurs impacts sur la consommation, l'investissement et les exportations. Il montre que les transferts monétaires stimulent la demande interne et que les exportations sont évincées. Le deuxième chapitre examine les implications des envois de fonds sur l'économie de la Moldavie à l'aide d'un modèle stock-flux cohérent et suggère que les chocs externes se transmettent à l'économie moldave via les transferts des migrants. Le chapitre 3 souligne que la concentration des migrants dans un faible nombre de pays d'accueil et l'instabilité de ces derniers augmentent la volatilité des envois de fonds. Le chapitre 4 ajoute que des envois monétaires instables associés à des flux commerciaux importants entre le pays d'origine et les pays d'accueil accroissent la volatilité de la croissance dans les pays d'origine des migrants. Le chapitre 5 s'intéresse aux dépenses publiques de santé et montre que si les envois de fonds permettent aux ménages de financer des services de santé privés non couverts, ils créent également un effet d'éviction au détriment des dépenses de santé publiques. Enfin, le chapitre 6 met en lumière le rôle des envois monétaires sur le développement économique de la Moldavie. Il souligne que les revenus des ménages, mais également de l'État, dépendent des envois de fonds dont les fluctuations créent des incertitudes sur la pérennité du modèle économique moldave. / This thesis studies the impacts of remittances in migrants' origin countries. Six different chapters focus on economic growth, volatility and public policies. The first chapter aims to estimate the impacts of remittances on growth through several channels: households' consumption, investment and exports. It is shown that remittances stimulate internal demand, while exports are reduced. The second chapter proposes a stock-flow consistent model for Moldova and suggests that remittances spread external shocks to the Moldovan economy. Chapter three shows that migrants' concentration in few host countries, as well as their instability, increase the volatility of remittances. Chapter four stresses that instable remittances enhance output growth volatility in migrants' origin countries when associated with important trade flows between both origin and destination countries. The fifth chapter focuses on public health spending and shows that remittances increase out-of-pocket health expenditure while crowding-out public health expenditure. The last chapter highlights the role of remittances on the economic development of Moldova. It suggests that both households and government revenues depend on remittances, whose fluctuations cast doubts about the economic sustainability of the Moldovan model of development.