Por meio de análise bibliográfica e estatística, este trabalho investiga as novas esquerdas que ascenderam aos governos de Brasil (PT - 2003), Chile (PS - 2001) e Uruguai (FA – 2005). O primeiro objetivo trata de estabelecer se existe diferença entre essas esquerdas e as demais na região ao ponto de as primeiras poderem ser consideradas como esquerdas social-democráticas. O segundo objetivo é analisar as políticas macroeconômicas desses governos de esquerda e seu gasto público social com a finalidade de verificar se existe alguma diferença entre esses governos de esquerda e outros de centro-direita nesses tópicos. Para a primeira verificação foram selecionadas todas as eleições democráticas livres ocorridas após 1984 com disputa de cadeiras para a Câmara Baixa (eleição para deputados) na Argentina (7); Bolívia (6), Brasil (6), Chile (5), Equador (5), Uruguai (5) e Venezuela (5). Com esses dados foram analisadas medidas de dispersão, volatilidade eleitoral e competição efetiva, com o auxílio de ferramenta específica (Excel 2007), dentro de cada sistema nacional. Os resultados indicaram que as esquerdas no Brasil, Chile e Uruguai apresentam maior grau de institucionalização e estabilidade de seus sistemas de partidos, validando a hipótese de se tratarem de sociais-democracias no sentido de disputar eleições competitivas e assim mantê-las após eventual vitória. Para a segunda verificação foram analisados os gastos sociais dos países do grupo de análise (Brasil, Chile e Uruguai) juntamente com os de um grupo de controle (México e Colômbia) entre 1990 e 2008. Também foram analisados os mais relevantes dados macroeconômicos dos mesmos países para o período 2000-2008. Com o auxílio de ferramenta específica, o SPSS 17.0, procedeu-se a duas regressões lineares múltiplas utilizando os dois conjuntos de dados para os dois grupos de países (totalizando sete variáveis independentes para cada um dos 45 casos). Os governos de esquerda (social-democracia) se apresentaram como variáveis dicotômicas (dummy) para as variáveis dependentes: Gasto Público Total e Gasto Público Social em relação ao PIB. Foram obtidas regressões significativas capazes de explicar o comportamento da variável dependente em 83,5% (Gasto Público Total) e 64,9% (Gasto Público Social). A social-democracia mostrou-se relevante em ambos os casos, explicando o aumento do Gasto Público Social em relação ao PIB em 3,47% e a redução do Gasto Público Total em 1,68%. Os resultados revelaram a relevância desses governos de esquerda para a expansão do gasto público social e para a uma gestão mais controlada do gasto público total, indicando traços social-democratas claros em tempos de fortes limitações macroeconômicas. / Trough bibliographic and statistical analysis, this study investigate the new left-wing that reached the government in Brazil (PT - 2003), Chile (PS - 2001) and Uruguay (FA – 2005). The first goal consists in establishing the existence of core differences between those left-wings and the others seen in the region capable or enough to consider the first ones as socialdemocrats. The second goal is to analyze those leftwing governments’ macroeconomic policies and their public social expenditure to verify differences between them and the center-right-wing policies. For the first verification all post 1984 free elections to low chambers (chamber of representatives) were selected in Argentina (7); Bolivia (6), Brazil (6), Chile (5), Ecuador (5), Uruguay (5) and Venezuela (5). Within this data measures of dispersion, electoral volatility and effective competitiveness have been analyzed with a specific tool (Excel 2007), for each national system. Outcomes indicate that left-wing in Brazil, Chile and Uruguay have a major degree of institutionalization and more stable party systems, confirming the hypothesis that they can be considered as socialdemocracies in the way of participating in competitive elections and maintaining them as such after an eventual victory. For the second verification, the core group (Brazil, Chile and Uruguay) social expenditure was analyzed with control group (Mexico and Colombia) data trough 1990-2008. Same countries’ macroeconomic most relevant data was also collected for the 2000-2008 period. With help from a specific tool, the SPSS 17.0, two multiple linear regressions were made using the data base for both groups of countries (totalizing seven independent variables for each one of the 45 cases). The left-wing governments (socialdemocrats) had been presented as indicator variable (dummy) as the dependent variables were: Total Public Expenditure and Social Public Expenditure as GDP percentage. The outcome regressions showed to have good significance and be able to explain the dependent variable behavior 83.5% (Total Public Expenditure) and 64.5% (Social Public Expenditure). The sociademocrats could be considered relevant in both cases, explaining the high in the Social Public Expenditure as GDP percentage by 3.47% and the reduction in the Total Public Expenditure as GDP percentage by 1.68%. The outcomes reveal the relevance of those left-wing governments to the Social Public Expenditure expansion as for a better controlled Total Public Expenditure, indicating socialdemocrat traces even in strong macroeconomic constrains times. / A través del análisis bibliográfico y estadístico, este trabajo investiga las nuevas izquierdas que ascendieron a los gobiernos de Brasil (PT - 2003), Chile (PS - 2001) y Uruguay (FA - 2005). El primer objetivo tienta establecer si existe una diferencia entre esas izquierdas y las otras en la región al punto de las primeras poder considerarse como de izquierda socialdemócrata. El segundo objetivo es analizar las políticas macroeconómicas de estos gobiernos de izquierda y su gasto publico social a fin de determinar si existe alguna diferencia entre estos gobiernos de izquierda y otros de centro-derecha en estos temas. Para el primer análisis se seleccionaron todas las elecciones libres y democráticas que tuvieron lugar después de 1984 con disputa para la Cámara Baja (elecciones para diputados) en la Argentina (7), Bolivia (6), Brasil (6), Chile (5), Ecuador (5), Uruguay (5) y Venezuela (5). Con estos datos se analizaron medidas de dispersión, de volatilidad electoral y de competencia efectiva, con la ayuda de herramientas específicas (Excel 2007), dentro de cada sistema nacional. Los resultados indicaron que las izquierdas en Brasil, Chile y Uruguay tienen un mayor grado de institucionalización y de estabilidad de sus sistemas de partidos, validando la hipótesis de que se tratan de social-democracias con disputa de elecciones competitivas y así mantenerlas después de una Victoria. Para la segunda hipótesis se analizaron los gastos sociales de los países del grupo en análisis (Brasil, Chile y Uruguay), junto con un grupo de control (México y Colombia) entre los años de 1990 y 2008. También se analizaron los datos macroeconómicos más relevantes de los mismos países para el período 2000-2008. Con la ayuda de herramienta específica, el SPSS 17.0, que tuvo lugar a dos modelos de regresión linear múltiple usando los dos conjuntos de datos para ambos grupos de países (con un total de siete variables independientes para cada uno de los 45 casos). Los gobiernos de izquierda (socialdemócratas) se presentan como variables dicotómicas (dummy) para las variables dependientes: el Gasto Público Total y el Gasto Público Social respecto al PIB. Se obtuvieron regresiones significativas que pueden explicar el comportamiento de la variable dependiente en el 83,5% (Gasto Público Total) y 64,9% (Gasto Social). La democracia social se muestra pertinente en ambos casos, explicando el incremento en el Gasto Público Social relacionado al PIB en 3,47% y a la reducción del Gasto Público Total en 1,68%. Los resultados mostraron la importancia de estos gobiernos de izquierda para la expansión del gasto público social y para una gestión más controlada del gasto público total, lo que indica huellas socialdemócratas claras en épocas de fuertes limitaciones macroeconómicas.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:34:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio Jose Zeri Nunes.pdf: 3730557 bytes, checksum: eb4c696875c9954c6b15d1523f813ade (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-05 / This study aims to analyze the economics of stagflation, extremely deleterious condition characterized by the presence of stagnation of the economy associated with high inflation, thus it is a situation of great macroeconomic imbalance, with significant social implications, and interest in law. Initially, this research will study the theme through the economic field. In this way, the analysis of inflation side of the disorder denotes impact on price stability, arbitrary redistribution of resources, wage disorder, discouragement of savings and investments, in addition to imply increased interest rate, and negative influence on economic growth in the long run. The recessive side demonstrates reduced production of goods and services, fall of social welfare, non-use of productive resources, and increase of unemployment. After, the analysis will be made of its interaction with science of law, through constitutional paradigm. This correlation shows contrast between this situation and the constitutional economic order, with opposition to its fundamentals of human labor and free enterprise, to its purposes of dignified existence and social justice, and contrasts with the constitutional economics principles of sovereignty, free competition, consumer protection, reduction of regional and social inequalities, pursuit of full employment and favorable treatment for small businesses. This research will investigate the related economic policies. Inadequate policies are etiologic factors for Stagflation, in this way, as all state actions, are subject to limits and controls, especially constitutional. Finally, this study will discuss the interrelationship between economic policy, stagflation and development. The macroeconomics of stagflation is the polar opposite of a development macroeconomics, so governments should implement economic policies that combat stagflation and boost development. / O presente estudo visa analisar a economia da estagflação, condição extremamente nociva, caracterizada pela presença de estagnação da economia associada à inflação alta; deste modo configura-se como situação de grande desequilíbrio macroeconômico, com importantes repercussões sociais, e de interesse ao Direito. Inicialmente, esta pesquisa estudará o tema através da visão da ciência econômica. Sob este prisma, a análise do polo inflacionário do distúrbio denota impacto sobre a estabilidade dos preços, desordem salarial, redistribuição arbitrária de recursos, desestímulo à poupança e a investimentos, além de implicar aumento de juros, com influência negativa no crescimento econômico a longo prazo. O polo recessivo demonstra redução da produção de bens e serviços, queda do bem-estar social, não aproveitamento de recursos produtivos, e tendência ao desemprego. Posteriormente, será feita análise de sua interação com o Direito, por meio do paradigma constitucional. Esta correlação demonstra contraposição entre esta conjuntura e a Ordem Econômica Constitucional, com oposição aos fundamentos de valorização do trabalho humano e da livre iniciativa, às finalidades de existência digna e de justiça social, bem como se contrapõe aos princípios econômico-constitucionais da soberania, livre concorrência, defesa do consumidor, redução das desigualdades regionais e sociais, pleno emprego e tratamento favorecido para as empresas de pequeno porte. A presente pesquisa ainda irá investigar as políticas econômicas correlacionadas. Políticas inadequadas são fatores etiológicos para estagflação; assim, como todos os atos do Estado, são sujeitas a limites e controles, especialmente jurídicoconstitucionais. Por fim, este estudo discutirá a inter-relação entre políticas econômicas, estagflação e desenvolvimento. A macroeconomia da estagflação é o polo oposto de uma macroeconomia do desenvolvimento, portanto, os governos devem aplicar políticas econômicas que combatam a primeira e impulsionem o desenvolvimento.

On October 1, 2018, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), concluding 13 months of negotiations that concerned economies totaling 27.88% of world GDP. The recentness, magnitude, and relevance of the USMCA invokes a comprehensive analysis of the multidimensional factors that led to this agreement. Explaining the USMCA of 2018 requires insight of the continent’s political and economic forces that bound Canada, the United States, and Mexico with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) of 1994. After doing so, this study then compiles a variety of works in a meta-analysis on NAFTA’s effects during the past 25 years. This paper finds that NAFTA achieved its intended goals, but failed to anticipate many negative repercussions for which it is criticized today. Then, this study investigates the demand for renegotiation of NAFTA which was triggered by Donald Trump calling it “the worst trade deal in history maybe ever” during his presidential campaign. However, when presenting the new USMCA to the press, he described it as a “wonderful new trade deal.” Therefore, study analyzes how different the USMCA is from NAFTA, and finds that the few changes are explained by a modernization of certain chapters to adapt the treaty to the digital era. These modifications heavily resonate the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional free trade agreement that included the U.S. until President Trump withdrew from it. What then results to be a rebranding of other agreements is predicted here to bring more political repercussions than economic change, as elections in Canada dawn later this year and in the U.S. in 2020. Ultimately, each party succeeded per its own renegotiation objectives; Mexico and Canada sought market penetration in the U.S., whereas the U.S. sought concessions and an end to NAFTA. Ratification of the USMCA is pending at the domestic level of each country, which this paper predicts will occur successfully, perhaps even before the end of 2019. Nonetheless, despite the modernization efforts involved in producing the USMCA, this paper questions whether the agreement equips these three member states to face the challenges of tomorrow.

This dissertation examines the relationship between resource nationalism and energy integration, and uses Bolivia and Brazil as a test case. Essentially, does resource nationalism affect energy integration? The findings nest within more expansive questions on international political economy and export-driven models of development. Why do populist regimes, historically operating under an economic nationalist cum protectionist paradigm, simultaneously pursue policies of economic integration? What is the relationship between resource nationalists and open markets, especially in the hydrocarbons sector? What is the relationship between populists, who are typically resource nationalists, and their decision to choose policies of energy integration? The most common responses to the above are that resource nationalists pursue protectionist policies in the hydrocarbon sector. This dissertation demonstrates that once in power, resource nationalists do not always pursue protectionist policies in the hydrocarbon sector, but instead rely on market forces. Another common response is that populists pursue policies of resource nationalism in the hydrocarbon sector. This dissertation demonstrates that populists do not always pursue policies of resource nationalism in the hydrocarbon sector, but instead choose policies of integration. Policies of integration are compelled by market forces, and at times ironically provide the foundation for resource nationalism to later flourish. This dissertation develops a case-study of Bolivia and Brazil to assess the relationship between resource nationalism and energy integration. The case is selected based on each country having energy resources or derivative products for exploitation and use, an energy trade relationship between the countries, the presence of government-run natural resource firms in each country, and a specific period where resource nationalism is present. Bolivia and Brazil are important for this study because of their proximity, particularly where the supply of natural gas is concerned. Proximity is of great importance as natural gas infrastructure is concomitant with energy integration, particularly supply.

L'économie moderne complexifiée, qui résulte d'une société humaine hétérogène, oblige les économistes et les décideurs à élaborer des modèles économiques complexes. Outre cette complexité, les politiques économiques varient d’un pays à l’autre.Cette thèse aborde ces complexités des économies modernes.Dans les trois premiers chapitres de cette thèse, j'améliore les théories existentes pour évaluer le rôle des agents intermédiaires financiers, des marchés d'immobilier et du crédit dans l'économie, en utilisant des modèles d’Équilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique (EGDS). Les données de trois périodes de l’économie américaine, y compris le climat économique avant la Grande Récession, l’effondrement systémique de 2008 et les politiques budgétaires après la crise, sont imputés aux modèles. Les modèles EGDS ont souvent été critiqués pour leur trop grande simplification des marchés financières.J'ai inclus les frictions financières des différents côtés de l'économie pour résoudre les échecs des modèles précédents.Les résultats des simulations indiquent que l'introduction de ces nouvelles caractéristiques dans l'économie révèle de nouveaux canaux et mécanismes qui sont négligés dans les modèles simples. Par conséquent, mon modèle donne un moyen plus précis de prévoir les mouvements économiques. En outre, cette thèse documente l’importance des réglementations des politiques macroprudentielles dans la stabilité financière, la durabilité et le bien-être. Enfin, dans les deux derniers chapitres de ma thèse, j’aborde l’étude des marchés avancés et je me concentre sur les économies en développement.Ces chapitres construisent de nouveaux modèles et abordent diverses questions économiques relatives à l'économie financière, publique et du travail dans les pays en développement, à travers le prisme des modèles EGD à agents hétérogènes.J'examine les impacts des chocs réels, monétaires, fiscaux et pétroliers sur l'environnement économique des pays en développement. Je propose ensuite des recommandations de politique économiques. / The modern economy, which is a result of intricate human society, compels economists and policy makers to build complex economic models. In addition to this complexity, each country requires its own economic policies. This thesis addresses these intricacies of modern economies. In the first three chapters of this thesis, I improve the current literature to assess the role of financial intermediary agents, housing and credit markets in the economy, using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Data from three periods in the US economy, including the economic climate before the Great Rescission, the systemic collapse in 2008, and post-crisis fiscal policies, are imputed into the models. Simple DSGE models havebeen criticized for not placing more emphasis on financial frictions. Here, I have included financial frictions on different sides of economy to resolve the failures of previous models.The results of simulations indicate that introducing these features to the economy reveals new channels and mechanisms which are neglected in simple models. As a result, my model gives a more accurate means to forecast economic movements. In addition, this thesis documents the significance of macroprudential policy regulations in financial stability, sustainability and welfare. Lastly, in the final two chapters of my thesis, I move away from the study of advanced markets and focus on developing economies. These chapters build new models and address a variety of economic questions pertaining to financial, public and labor economics in developing countries, through the lens of multi-agent dynamic general equilibrium models. I examine the impacts of real, monetary, fiscal and oil price shocks on the economic environment of developing countries. I then propose appropriate policy recommendations.

在線性模型中以計算容易，解釋方便為著稱，但是比須加入許多嚴格限制 ，而對於事後之模型檢測亦要花費番功夫。，而可加性模型只要函數給定 ，backfitting 演算法收歛即可。可加性模型除了保留線性模型的加法性 及解釋能力外，尚且提高了估計準度。在美、日、中、英、德五個國家的 保險市場中，雖然判定係數的提升亦大有斬獲 (0.85->0.9957)，然而在 台灣我們根據實證 一、提升統計應用水準，大幅提高模型變數的解釋能 力，模型內MSE(Me Square Error)大幅降低。(見表5-1、表5-2、表5-3、 表5-4、表5-5、表5-6、二、維持了線性模型方便的解釋能力。三、提升 估計水準，用以比較二種模型之優劣時，採1991年保費收入之實際值與估 計值之比較(見表 5-3，表 5-6，表 5-9，表 5-12，表 5- 15)，可發現 線性模型誤差率與可加性模型誤差率的比值美國為2倍、日本為12倍、臺 灣為4.55倍、英國為2.95倍、德國為2.95倍。四、函數以圖形方式表示顯 而易見。可加性模型所做的保費收入估計模型 / An Application of Insurance in Additive Model：United States's, Japan's,Taiwan's,England's and germnany's Life Insurance Model between Premiums and Macro-variables comparison.

This thesis uses cross-country panel regressions to identify the effects of fossil-fuel subsidies for both oil importers and oil exporters on GDP growth, industry growth, crowding out of government expenditures in education, health, and infrastructure, government debt, carbon dioxide emissions, inequality and poverty. Fossil-fuel subsidies are found to be associated with lower levels of growth and industry growth, less government expenditure on health and education, poorer infrastructure quality, more government debt, and higher rates of carbon dioxide emissions. No relationship is found between fossil fuel subsidies and poverty and inequality. These results confirm the arguments of those that argue that fossil-fuel subsidies should be rationalized. However, removing subsidies is politically challenging. In order to identify strategies for fossil fuel reform, the successful reform efforts of Indonesia and Turkey are examined. These cases are then used to draw lessons for governments undertaking subsidy reform. The key strategies used were to exempt some regions, groups, or fuels from reform, use funds from subsidy removal for social safety nets and other poverty alleviation programs, time the reforms strategically, and communicate clearly to the public the reason for reform and how the funds will be used. These lessons are applied to countries in the developing Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco.

本研究係探討匯率與總體經濟之關聯性，以中國大陸1996第一季至 2013年第一季之總體經濟變數，共計樣本數為69筆季資料。先以1996第一季至 2013年第一季全期數據進行實證分析。再以2005年7月為分界點，分為1996年第一季至2005年第二季及2005年第三季至2013年第一季數據分別進行實證分析。 本論文就REER、GDP、CPI、M2、UNEMP、CHIBOR、FDI、OPEN等總體經濟變數，以單根檢定及建構向量自我迴歸模型進行實證分析，並以Granger因果關係檢定、衝擊反應分析及預測誤差變異數分解，以了解匯率與總體經濟相互間之關係。 實證結果發現，中國大陸匯率與總體經濟間的關係自2005年7月21日匯率改革後逐漸增強，但整體言之匯率與總體經濟間之傳導能力仍然不大，人民幣匯率的變動主要受其自身影響較多，受總體經濟變數的相互影響較小，顯示其外匯市場的開放程度與一個真正開放的經濟體還是有些許差距。 / This research examines the correlation between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomics by using the data of economic variables of China from the 1st quarter of 1996 to the 1st quarter of 2013. The sample contains 69 quarterly data during the entire period, while the reform of Chinese exchange rate on 21st July 2005 is a crucial division. In order to find the correlation between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomics, the research examines the economic variables such as REER, GDP, CPI, M2, UNEMP, CHIBOR, FDI, and OPEN by using unit root test, vector autoregression model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition impulse response function. The result of the tests indicates that after the reform of Chinese exchange rate on 21st July 2005, the correlation between exchange rates and macroeconomics has been enhanced, but the connection is not prominent. In other words, the fluctuation of Renminbi is mainly affected by the nation’s policy instead of its macroeconomic factors. Hence, the openness of the Chinese foreign exchange market is still distant from a real open economy.

This thesis uses cross-country panel regressions to identify the effects of fossil-fuel subsidies for both oil importers and oil exporters on GDP growth, industry growth, crowding out of government expenditures in education, health, and infrastructure, government debt, carbon dioxide emissions, inequality and poverty. Fossil-fuel subsidies are found to be associated with lower levels of growth and industry growth, less government expenditure on health and education, poorer infrastructure quality, more government debt, and higher rates of carbon dioxide emissions. No relationship is found between fossil fuel subsidies and poverty and inequality. These results confirm the arguments of those that argue that fossil-fuel subsidies should be rationalized. However, removing subsidies is politically challenging. In order to identify strategies for fossil fuel reform, the successful reform efforts of Indonesia and Turkey are examined. These cases are then used to draw lessons for governments undertaking subsidy reform. The key strategies used were to exempt some regions, groups, or fuels from reform, use funds from subsidy removal for social safety nets and other poverty alleviation programs, time the reforms strategically, and communicate clearly to the public the reason for reform and how the funds will be used. These lessons are applied to countries in the developing Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco.

The paper discusses the interactions of changes in income distribution and the accumulation dynamics in the post-Fordist accumulation regime in OECD countries, which is characterized by deregulated financial markets. The neoliberal mode of regulation came with a decisive shift in power relations at the expense of labor, which is clearly reflected in the fall of wage shares across OECD economies. The notion of a "finance-dominated" accumulation regime is proposed to highlight that financial developments crucially shape the pattern and the pace of accumulation. Financial globalization has relaxed balance of payment constraints and thereby allowed the build up of big international imbalances. The combination of real wage moderation and financial liberalization has led to different strategies (or at least outcomes) in different countries. While some countries (like the USA) exhibit a credit-fuelled consumption-driven growth model that comes with large current account deficits, others (like Germany and Japan) show an export-driven growth model with modest consumption growth and large current account surpluses. Overall the finance-dominated accumulation regime is characterized by a mediocre growth performance and by a high degree of fragility. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series