Diese Dissertation besteht aus drei Essays, die die Rolle von Haushalts-Heterogenität für makroökonomische Entwicklungen untersuchen. Alle Essays verwenden dynamische, stochastische Modelle des allgemeinen makroökonomischen Gleichgewichtes, in denen Haushalte heterogen sind. Das erste Essay berechnet Multiplikatoren von budgetneutralen fiskalischen Politiken, die Einkommen von Haushalten mit einer geringen Konsumneigung zu Haushalten mit einer hohen Konsumneigung umverteilen. Zu diesem Zweck unterteile ich den Haushaltssektor in einem Neu-Keynesianischen Modell in eine Vielzahl von Untergruppen mit unterschiedlichen Konsumneigungen, wodurch die empirisch beobachtete Verteilung von Konsumneigungen exakt im Modell repliziert werden kann. Ich zeige, dass budgetneutrale Umverteilungen in diesem Modell ein wirksames Instrument sind um die Wirtschaft zu stimulieren. Das zweite Essay analysiert die Auswirkungen von Haushalts-Heterogenität für die Transmission von adversen externen Schocks in einem Bewley-Modell einer kleinen offenen Volkswirtschaft. Ich zeige, dass die negativen Auswirkungen der Schocks auf Haushaltseinkommen für ärmere Haushalte stärker sind. Da diese eine höhere marginale Konsumneigung haben, bedeutet das eine Abnahme der aggregierten Nachfrage. Des Weiteren profitieren reichere Haushalte disproportional von einer Stabilisierung der Volkswirtschaft durch eine Wechselkursabwertung. Das dritte Essay untersucht die Auswirkungen eines Anstieges der Lebenserwartung. Dabei liegt der Fokus auf den Implikationen von altersabhängigem Lohnrisiko, das einen U-förmigen Verlauf über die Lebenszeit aufweist. Wenn dies in einem Aiyagari-Modell mit überlappenden Generationen berücksichtigt wird, spielt die Anpassung von Arbeitsangebot eine wichtigere Rolle als im Standard-Modell ohne altersabhängiges Lohnrisiko. Anpassungen im Sparverhalten werden hingegen weniger wichtig. / This thesis consists of three essays on the implications of household heterogeneity for macroeconomic dynamics. Each essay employs a different Heterogeneous-Agent Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the given research question. The first essay computes multipliers of different types of budget-neutral redistributive fiscal policies in a New Keynesian DSGE model. An ad-hoc distribution of MPC is introduced by partitioning the household population into a large number of segments with a varying share of hand-to-mouth consumers, which allows matching empirical estimates of the MPC distribution. I find that targeted transfers can be an effective tool in stimulating aggregate demand. In the second essay, I analyze the role of household heterogeneity for the propagation of external shocks in a Bewley-type model of a small open economy. I find that negative external shocks reduce households' current income, whereby poor households are affected most strongly. Since poor households have the highest MPC, this brings about a reduction in aggregate demand. My results further show that rich households dis-proportionally benefit from the stabilization of the domestic economy, provided by a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate. The third essay analyzes the effect of an increase in life expectancy in an Aiyagari overlapping generations model. Motivated by empirical evidence, the process for idiosyncratic wage shocks is modified such that their volatility is u-shaped over the life cycle. Relative to the standard model with age-independent wage volatility, labor supply has a more significant role in preparing for an increase in the expected retirement spell, while precautionary savings become less relevant. In the aggregate, this translates into a smaller fall in the natural interest rate, relative to the standard model.

Diese Dissertation analysiert reale Wechselkursdynamiken und die Rolle von Fiskalpolitik in einer Währungsunion, die sich aus zwei Regionen zusammensetzt. Drei Forschungsfragen werden adressiert: Welche politischen Regime führen in Abwesenheit von Handel zu determinierten Gleichgewichten? Welche Rolle spielt Arbeitsmobilität über Produktionssektoren hinweg innerhalb einer Volkswirtschaft für die Dynamik des realen Wechselkurses? Und sollte nationale Fiskalpolitik auf diese Änderungen des realen Wechselkurses, d.h. auf Inflationsdifferenziale, reagieren, um den inländischen Wohlstand zu erhöhen? Das erste Essay stellt fest, dass bei autarken Mitgliedsländern eine Geldpolitik nach Taylor-Prinzip nicht ausreicht, um ein Gleichgewicht zu determinieren, wenn sie nicht mit einer "aktiven" Fiskalpolitik gekoppelt ist. Das Modell zeigt, dass fiskalische Schocks aus der Volkswirtschaft mit einer aktiven Fiskalpolitik die Inlandsinflation beeinflussen, sich aber auch auf die Volkswirtschaft auswirken, deren fiskalische Haltung passiv ist. Das zweite Essay zeigt, dass die Annahme von perfekter Arbeitsmobilität über Produktionssektoren hinweg die Fähigkeit des Modells erheblich beeinträchtigt, ausgiebige Dynamiken des realen Wechselkurses nach sektorspezifischen Schocks zu generieren. In einer empirischen Anwendung zerlege ich die Treiber der spanischen realen Wechselkursvariabilität und zeige, dass die Schätzung der Arbeitsmobilität die Modellanpassung an die Daten erheblich verbessert. Der dritte Aufsatz erwägt reale Wechselkursschwankungen als Zielvariable für nationale Fiskalpolitiken in einer Währungsunion. Eine Wohlfahrtsanalyse, die Konsumäquivalente berechnet, quantifiziert die Vorteile von Steuerregeln, die auf das inländische Inflationsdifferenzial reagieren. Sie findet großen Spielraum für wohlfahrtsfördernde, fiskalische Interventionen im Rahmen von budgetneutralen Regeln für Konsum- und Lohnertragssteuern. / This dissertation analyses real exchange rate dynamics and the role of fiscal policy within the setting of a monetary union consisting of two regions. It seeks to address three research questions: What are the policy regimes that yield determinate equilibria in the absence of trade? What is the role of labour mobility across production sectors within an economy in real exchange rate dynamics? And should a national fiscal authority respond to these changes in the real exchange rate, i.e. the domestic inflation differential, to improve domestic welfare? The first essay finds that with autarkic member countries, a monetary authority following the Taylor principle is insufficient to render an equilibrium determinate if it is not coupled with exactly one `active' fiscal policy. The model shows that fiscal shocks originating in the economy with an active fiscal stance affect domestic inflation but also spill over into the economy whose fiscal policy stance is passive. The second essay shows that assuming perfect labour mobility across production sectors significantly hampers the model's ability to generate rich real exchange rate dynamics following sector-specific shocks. In an empirical application, I decompose the drivers of Spanish real exchange rate variability and show that estimating the degree of labour mobility considerably improves the model's fit to the data. The third essay considers real exchange rate variability as a fiscal target for national fiscal authorities in a monetary union. A welfare analysis that calculates consumption equivalents quantifies the benefits of fiscal rules that are responsive to the domestic inflation differential. It finds a large scope for welfare-enhancing fiscal intervention in the set of budget-neutral rules which rely on consumption and labour income taxes.

Abstract of thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Commerce and Management Dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Fiji : a cointegrated VAR analysis By Shiu Raj Singh The objective of this study is to examine how macroeconomic variables of Fiji inter-relate with aggregate demand and co-determine one another using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. This study did not use a prior theoretical framework but instead used economic justification for selection of variables. It was found that fiscal policy, which is generally used as a stabilisation tool, did not have a positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the short term. Effects on GDP growth were positive over the long term but not statistically significant. Furthermore, expansionary fiscal policy caused inflationary pressures. Fiji has a fixed exchange rate regime, therefore, it was expected that the focus of monetary policy would be the maintenance of foreign reserves. It was, however, found that monetary expansion in the short term resulted in positive effects on real GDP growth and resulted in inflation. The long term effects of monetary policy on real GDP growth were negative, which are explained by the fixed exchange rate regime, endogenous determination of money supply by the central bank, an unsophisticated financial market and, perhaps, an incomplete transmission of the policy. Both merchandise trade and visitor arrivals growth were found to positively contribute to short term and long term economic growth. Political instability was found not to have significant direct effects on real GDP growth but caused a significant decline in visitor arrivals which then negatively affected economic growth in the short term.

The effectiveness of South Africa's policy framework towards attracting FDI has been questionable. Determined to redress the instabilities created by the apartheid regime, the Government of National Unity (GNU) commissioned the Macroeconomic and Research Group (MERG), and charged it to devise appropriate policy reforms and intervention mechanism to address the shortcomings. This research critically interrogates the effectiveness of government's policy reforms towards attracting FDI, especially the impacts of the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP), the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) initiative and the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA). This research concludes that the policy determinants for inflow FDI have been self-defeating. Also, it was found that necessary reforms would have to be conducted to correct some of the shortcomings of the macroeconomic policies, as a way of creating an environment that is capable of attracting greenfield investments (FDI) to South Africa. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis investigates why human poverty and environmental degradation still exist to the extent that they do in a world where there appears to be sufficient scientific and social knowledge to reduce them considerably. It asserts that the reason they continue to exist on such a large scale is because their root cause - a mistaken understanding of humanity's role in creation - has not been sufficiently examined. Humanity's mistaken understanding of ourselves as the Cartesian lords of creation is addressed by introducing the Biblically-based concept of Shalom, as interpreted by theologians Ulrich Duchrow and Gerhard Liedke in their book, Shalom. Biblical Perspectives on Creation, Justice and Peace (1987). The concept stresses how our exploitative relationship towards creation results in destructive relationships with our fellow human beings and ultimately with God. The thesis argues that global capitalism's central value of accumulating wealth for its own sake has severely disrupted Shalom in society and the rest of creation. Using a second work of theologian Ulrich Duchrow, Alternatives to Global Capitalism. Drawn from Biblical History Designed for Political Action (1995), the social and environmental poverty inducing structures within the world economy are highlighted. It is asserted that in order to reduce poverty and environmental degradation within the economy, this central value of wealth accumulation for its own sake has to be replaced with one that seeks to satisfy the basic needs of all people. The thesis also discusses the inability of the South African government's macro economic strategy - the Growth, Employment and Redistribution plan (GEAR)- to create Shalom. In order for the macro-economic strategy of South Africa to address the exploitative relationships that exist within the economy, it is argued that a more critical attitude towards the values and structures of the market economy is needed. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis ondersoek die vraag hoekom armoede en omgewingsaftakeling steeds bestaan in 'n wêreld waar genoegsame wetenskaplike en sosiale kennis beskikbaar is om dit aansienlik te verminder. Dit argumenteer dat die rede waarom hierdie probleme op so 'n groot skaal voortbestaan, is omdat hulle grondoorsaak - 'n verkeerde verstaan van die mens se rol in die skepping - nie voldoende ondersoek is nie. Die mensdom se misverstaan van sigself as die Cartesiaanse meesters van die skepping word aangespreek deur die ondersoek van die Bybels-gebasseerde konsep van Shalom, soos geïnterpreteer deur die teoloë Ulrich Duchrow and Gerhard Liedke in hulle boek Shalom. Biblical Perspectives on Creation, Justice and Peace (1987). Die konsep benadruk hoe ons eksploiterende verhouding tot die skepping resulteer in 'n vernietigende verhouding met ons medemens en uiteindelik, met God. Die tesis argumenteer dat globale kapitalisme, met die akkumulasie van welvaart vir sigself as sentrale waarde, Shalom ondermyn in die wêreld en die res van die skepping. Deur gebruik te maak van 'n tweede werk van die teoloog Ulrich Duchrow, Alternatives to Global Capitalism. Drawn from Biblical History Designed for Political Action (1995), word die strukture wat sosiale- en omgewings-armoede veroorsaak binne die wêreldekonomie, ondersoek. Dit word gestel dat, ten einde armoede en omgewingsvernietiging te verminder, hierdie sentrale waarde van welvaartakkumulasie vir sigself vervang moet word met een wat daarna streef om die basiese behoeftes van mense te bevredig. Die onvermoë van die Suid-Afrikaanse regering se makro-ekonomiese strategie, naamlik die Groei-, Werkskeppings- en Herverdelingsprogram (GEAR) - om Shalom te skep, word ook bespreek. Dit word geargumenteer dat, ten einde 'n situasie te bereik waar die makro-ekonomiese strategie van Suid Afrika die eksploiterende verhoudings binne die ekonomie aanspreek, 'n meer kritiese houding ten opsigte van die waardes en strukture van die vryemark ekonomie benodig word.

The U.S. is the only OECD country that does not offer any form of federal paid parental leave. Only three states—California, New Jersey and Rhode Island—have state paid parental leave policies; implemented in 2004, 2009 and 2014, respectively. Through descriptive statistics and a regression analysis of women and men’s wages in those three states, before and after the implementation of the policies, we assess the effects of paid leave programs on the gender wage gaps in those states. Our results show us that California’s paid family leave policy had greater effects on decreasing the gender wage gap than the policies in New Jersey and Rhode Island. In addition, our regression analysis shows us that women of childbearing age (19-45 years) saw an increase in their wages after the policy implementations, while men of childbearing age saw a decrease in their wages. This led us to the conclusion that paid family leave policies may be effective in decreasing the gender wage gap; however it is problematic that men’s wages decreased, implying that the policies may not be totally welfare optimizing. However, we came to an important conclusion that will hopefully entice more states and the federal government to implement policies to better support working parents.

Cette thèse contribue au débat sur les politiques de ciblage d’inflation et de transparence des banques centrales en présentant notamment trois essais théoriques et empiriques sur le sujet. Dans le premier essai, nous étudions théoriquement les conditions sous lesquelles il serait optimal pour une banque centrale d’adopter explicitement un régime de ciblage d’inflation. Nous proposons un nouveau cadre théorique qui combine les deux principales raisons avancées dans la littérature pour expliquer les effets réels à court terme de la politique monétaire et qui sont d’une part, la présence d’informations hétérogènes entre les agents économiques (Phelps, 1970 ; Lucas, 1972), et d’autre part, la rigidité des salaires ou des prix (Taylor, 1980 ; Calvo, 1983). Nous analysons ensuite notre problématique dans ce nouveau cadre en considérant l’interaction entre le degré de rigidité des prix, et le degré de complémentarités stratégiques dans la fixation de prix des firmes. Nos résultats montrent que l’adoption d’un régime de ciblage d’inflation dépend fortement de l’importance relative des paramètres du modèle. En particulier, nous montrons que le ciblage d’inflation devrait être toujours adopté lorsque les complémentarités stratégiques sont faibles, alors que dans le cas contraire, il est optimal uniquement lorsque les prix sont assez rigides et que la banque centrale détient des informations suffisamment précises sur les fondamentaux de l’économie. Dans le second essai, nous utilisons la macroéconomie expérimentale afin d’évaluer dans quelle mesure l’annonce de la cible d’inflation est pertinente dans un cadre de ciblage de l’inflation. Nos résultats montrent que lorsque la banque centrale ne se soucie que de la stabilisation de l’inflation, l’annonce de la cible d’inflation n’apporte pas de gain supplémentaire en termes de performances macro-économiques, par rapport à une politique monétaire active (type règle de Taylor). Cependant, si la banque centrale intègre également la stabilisation de l’activité économique dans ses objectifs, la communication de la cible contribue à réduire la volatilité de l’inflation, du taux d’intérêt, et de l’écart de production, bien que leurs niveaux moyens ne soient pas affectés. Ce résultat fournit ainsi une justification pour l’adoption d’un régime de ciblage flexible d’inflation par la majorité des pays ciblant l’inflation. Enfin dans le troisième essai, nous appliquons une analyse transversale ainsi que la technique des variables instrumentales, afin d’analyser les effets de la transparence des banques centrales sur les résultats macroéconomiques dans les pays émergents. Nous construisons un nouvel indice de transparence qui combine certains aspects de l’indice de transparence globale d’Eijffinger et Geraats (2006), avec ceux de l’indice de transparence sur le comité de politique monétaire de Hayo et Mazhar (2011). Nous analysons ensuite le rôle individuel de chaque composante du nouvel indice en termes de réduction du niveau de l’inflation et de sa volatilité, ainsi que de la volatilité du produit. Contrairement à la littérature antérieure, nous trouvons que le nouvel indice de transparence ainsi que ses aspects économique, politique, procédurale et de transparence sur la politique monétaire impactent négativement le niveau moyen de l’inflation, mais pas sa volatilité dans ces pays. L’unique composante du nouvel indice qui permet de réduire à la fois la volatilité de l’inflation et celle de la production est la transparence opérationnelle. Ces résultats s’avèrent robustes aux différentes spécifications de modèles économétriques utilisés dans cet essai. / This dissertation contributes to the debate on inflation targeting and central bantransparency by presenting three theoretical and empirical essays on the topic. In the first essay, we theoretically investigate the conditions under which it would be optimal for a central bank to explicitly adopt an inflation targeting regime. We propose a new theoretical framework that combines the two main frictions put forward in the literature to explain the real short run effects of monetary policy that is, heterogeneous information among agents (Phelps, 1970; Lucas, 1972), and wage or price rigidities (Taylor, 1980; Calvo, 1983). We then analyze our issue in this new framework by considering the interaction between the degree of price stickiness, and the degree of strategic complementarities in firms’ price setting. Our results show that adopting an inflation targeting regime crucially depends on the relative importance of the model’s parameters. In particular, we show that inflation targeting should always be adopted when strategic complementarities are low, while in the opposite case, it is optimal only if prices are sticky enough and the central bank holds sufficiently accurate information on the fundamentals of the economy. In the second essay, we use experimental macroeconomics to evaluate to what extent communication of the inflation target is relevant in an inflation targeting framework. Our results show that first, when the central bank only cares about inflation stabilization, announcing the inflation target does not make a difference in terms of macroeconomic performance compared to a standard active monetary policy. However, if the central bank also cares about the stabilization of the economic activity, communicating the target helps to reduce the volatility of inflation, interest rate, and output gap although their average levels are not affected. This finding provides a rationale for the adoption of flexible inflation targeting by the majority of inflation targeting countries. In the third essay, using a cross-sectional analysis and instrumental variables technique, we analyze the impact of central bank transparency on macroeconomic outcomes in emerging economies. We build a new index of transparency that combines some aspects of the overall Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) transparency index, with those of monetary policy committee transparency developed in Hayo and Mazhar (2011). We then analyze the individual role of each component of the new index in mitigating inflation and its volatility, as well as output volatility. By contrast to the previous literature, we interestingly find that the overall new index of transparency as well as its political, economic, procedural, and policy aspects negatively impact the average level of inflation, but not its volatility in these countries. The unique component of the new index that reduces the volatility of both inflation and output is operational transparency, and these results are robust to different econometric and instruments setting specifications.

Cette thèse étudie la trajectoire historique des enquêtes psychologiques produites au Survey Research Center de l’Université du Michigan à l’initiative de George Katona. Aujourd’hui, on ne retient de ces enquêtes que les indicateurs de confiance produits chaque mois par plus de cinquante pays pour analyser la conjoncture. Pourquoi continue-t-on à produire et à utiliser ces enquêtes et ces indicateurs alors qu’un consensus s’est produit en macroéconomie et en microéconomie autour d’un ensemble de modèles qui n’en font pas l’usage ? Pour répondre à cette question, on étudie plusieurs controverses qui se sont produites autour des enquêtes du Michigan entre 1944 et 1960. On montre que l’époque est caractérisée de décisions au sein des gouvernements et du monde des affaires. La thèse montre que si ces débats sont peu connus des économistes aujourd’hui, c’est parce qu’ils se sont poursuivis dans des champs disciplinaires périphériques à l’économie. Ces disciplines sont concernées par des problèmes pratiques dont les économistes théoriciens se sont progressivement détournés. En proposant une analyse des liens entre la théorie économique et sa mise en pratique, cette thèse offre une nouvelle manière d’appréhender l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente et de l’économie comportementale. L’histoire des dynamiques intellectuelles d’après-guerre ne se résume ni à des innovations théoriques, ni à un nouveau rapport entre la théorie et l’empirie. En effet, ces dynamiques reposent aussi sur la redéfinition des frontières entre la science et son art ; entre d’un côté l’économie et de l’autre le marketing et la conjoncture. / This dissertation looks at the historical development of George Kantona's psychological surveys at the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. The main legacy of this work has been the widespread adoption of confidence indicators. They are used each month by more than fifty countries and widely implemented by business managers and forecasters. How do we explain the widespread usage of these indicators despite a prevalent consensus in macroeconomics and microeconomics that does not consider them as important tools? In order to answer this question, we study several controversies that occurred around Michigan surveys between 1944 and 1960. It is shown that this era is characterized by many interdisciplinary exchanges guided by the practical needs of decision-makers in governments and private companies. I show that if economists know little about these debates, it is because they were maintained in disciplinary fields on the periphery of economics. These fields are centered on practical problems that theoretical economists progressively abandoned. This thesis offers a new way of understanding the history of recent macroeconomics and behavioral economics by proposing an analysis of the links between economic theory and its application in practice. For instance, the history of post-war intellectual dynamics cannot be reduced to theoretical innovations or to a new relationship between theory and empiricism. Indeed, these dynamics rely also on the transformation of the boundaries between the science and its art; between the economy on the one hand and marketing and forecasting on the other.

L’hypothèse à l’origine de ce travail est que les remises en question récentes du concept de capital humain sont inextricablement liées aux conditions dans lesquelles cette théorie a émergé. En conséquence, remonter aux origines de la révolution du capital humain permet d’apporter un éclairage nouveau sur les problèmes de définition et de mesure que le conceptrencontre aujourd’hui. Dans une perspective d’histoire de la pensée économique, nous nous proposons d’analyser les ondements conceptuels du cadre théorique du capital humain qui a émergé à la fin des années 1950 sous l’impulsion de trois auteurs : Gary Becker, Jacob Mincer et Théodore Schultz. Au début des années 1950, Schultz utilise le concept de capitalhumain pour expliquer le résidu de croissance. Le programme de recherche qu’il lance s’inscrit ainsi dans le corpus des théories de la croissance. Schultz parvient immédiatement à faire la preuve de la pertinence de ce facteur de production oublié. Au même moment, c’est-à-dire au milieu des années 1950, Mincer travaille lui aussi sur le concept de capital humain, mais comme déterminant de la distribution des revenus individuels. Quant à Becker, ce n’est qu’à la fin des années 1950 qu’il s’intéressera au capital humain : il propose d’analyser les choix individuels de formation au moyen de la théorie du choix rationnel et d’étudier le taux de rendement privé de l’investissement dans l’éducation. Le modèle microéconomique élaboré par Becker sera immédiatement utilisé par Mincer et va s’imposer aux dépens de l’approche macroéconomique de Schultz. / The hypothesis underlying this work is that the recent criticism faced by human capital concept are inextricably linked to the emerging conditions of the theory. Getting to the roots of the human capital revolution gives a new perspective on both theoretical and measurement issues. Using the history of economic thought perspective, we analyse the conceptual foundations of the human capital theory developed by Gary Becker, Jacob Mincer and Theodore Schultz in the late fifties. In 1950, Schultz used the concept of human capital in order to explain growth residual. His research program is embodied in the corpus ofgrowth theory. Schultz promptly succeeds to show the importance of this forgotten factor. Simultaneously, Mincer works on the same concept considering it as the main determinant of the personal income distribution. Few years later, Becker tried to understand the individual choice of training using the rational choice theory, and study the private rate of return of investment in education. His model, immediately adopted by Mincer, will establish itself as the standard model, vanishing the macroeconomic approach of Schultz.

This collection of essays examines the topic of macroeconomic stabilisation in an international context, focusing on monetary policy, capital controls and exchange rates. Chapter 1, written in collaboration with Giancarlo Corsetti and Joao Duarte, reconsiders the effects of common monetary policy shocks across countries in the euro area, using a data-rich factor model and identifying shocks with high-frequency surprises around policy announcements. We show that the degree of heterogeneity in the response to shocks, while being low in financial variables and output, is significant in consumption, consumer prices and macro variables related to the labour and housing markets. Mirroring country-specific institutional and market differences, we find that home ownership rates are significantly correlated with the strength of the housing channel in monetary policy transmission. We document a high dispersion in the response to shocks of house prices and rents and show that, similar to responses in the US, these variables tend to move in different directions. In Chapter 2, I build a two-country, two-good model to examine the welfare effects of capital controls, finding that under certain circumstances, a shut-down in asset trade can be a Pareto improvement. Further, I examine the robustness of the result to parameter changes, explore a wider set of policy instruments and confront computational issues in this class of international macroeconomic models. I document that within an empirically relevant parameter span for the trade elasticity, the gains from capital controls might be significantly larger than suggested by previous contributions. Moreover, I establish that a refined form of capital controls in the shape of taxes and tariffs cannot improve upon the outcome under financial autarky. Finally, results show that the conjunction of pruning methods and endogenous discount factors can remove explosive behaviour from this class of models and restore equilibrating properties. In Chapter 3, I use a panel of 20 emerging market currencies to assess whether a model that combines fundamental and non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting approaches can successfully predict risk premia (i.e. currency excess returns) over the short horizon. In doing so, I aim to overcome three main shortcomings of earlier research: i) Sensitivity to the chosen sample period; ii) seemingly arbitrary selection of explanatory variables that differs from currency to currency; and iii) difficulty in interpreting forecasts beyond the numerical signal. Based on a theoretical model of currency risk premia, I use real exchange rate strength combined with indicators for carry, momentum and economic sentiment to homogeneously forecast risk premia across all 20 currencies in the sample at a monthly frequency. In doing so, the model remains largely agnostic about structural choices, keeping arbitrarily imposed restrictions to a minimum. Results from portfolio construction suggest that returns are significant and robust both across currencies as well as over time, with Sharpe Ratios in out-of-sample tests above 0.7.