For an introductory macroeconomics course, the discussion of historical relevance helps foster important learning connections. By comparing the Great Depression to the 2008-2009 recession, a macroeconomics instructor can provide students with connections to history. This paper discusses the major causes of each recession, major fiscal policy and monetary policy decisions of both recessions, and the respective relevance in teaching the relationship of each policy to gross domestic product. The teaching points addressed in this paper are directed towards an introductory college-level macroeconomics course, incorporating a variety of theories from historical and economic writers and data from government and central bank sources. A lesson plan is included in an appendix to assist the instructor in implementing the material.

Over the past decade, the Swedish pension funds AP1, AP2, AP3, and AP4 have significantly increased their capital allocation towards unlisted real estate. This study explores the investment strategies of these AP funds, examining the methods used in asset class investments, risk mitigation measures, responses to macroeconomic threats, and investment returns. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates semi-structured interviews with fund representatives and statistical analysis of data from annual reports.  Findings indicate that the AP funds have capitalized on post-financial crisis real estate market dynamics, particularly evident in investments initiated in the years after the crisis. Notably, AP1, AP3, and AP4 have gained good returns through sector diversification, contrasting with AP2’s less successful geographic diversification. Investments are primarily direct or joint ventures in unlisted real estate firms, avoiding PERE-funds due to their shorter holding periods and high costs. Risk is mitigated through extended holding periods, strategic partner selection, board involvement, and analysis of megatrends. The low risk-free rate environment that has been in Sweden for the last decade has significantly supported the unrealized returns from the investments. Future capital allocation should focus on non-competing sectors, reinvestments in existing assets, and identification of new trends to enhance sector investability. / Under det senaste decenniet har de svenska pensionsfonderna AP1, AP2, AP3 och AP4 ökat sin tillgångsallokering avsevärt i onoterade fastigheter. Denna studie utforskar investeringsstrategierna för dessa AP-fonder och granskar de metoder som används i investeringarna i tillgångsklassen, vilka åtgärder som görs för riskminimering samt hur makroekonomiska hot minimeras och vilka avkastningarna investeringarna gett. Genom att använda en blandad metod använder studien semistrukturerade intervjuer med fondrepresentanter och statistisk analys av data från årsredovisningar. Resultaten visar att AP-fonderna har kapitaliserat på dynamiken på fastighetsmarknaden efter finanskrisen, särskilt tydligt i investeringar som initierades åren efter krisen. Noterbart är att AP1, AP3 och AP4 har uppnått betydande avkastningar genom sektordiversifiering, i kontrast till AP2:s mindre framgångsrika geografiska diversifiering. Investeringarna sker främst direkt eller via klubbstrukturer i onoterade fastighetsföretag, där PERE-fonder undviks på grund av deras kortare hållperioder och oproportionerliga kostnader. Riskminimering uppnås genom långa investeringshorisonter, strategiskt partnerurval, styrelseengagemang och analys av megatrender. Den låga riskfria räntemiljön som varit i Sverige det senaste decenniet har avsevärt stöttat de orealiserade avkastningarna från investeringarna. Framtida kapitalallokeringar bör fokusera på icke-konkurrerande sektorer, återinvesteringar i befintliga bolag och identifiering av nya trender för att hitta sektorer som blivit investerbara.

Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zu den Gebieten der Finanzmarktökonomik und der Makroökonomik liefern. Der erste Essay beschäftigt sich mit der Spezifikation der Investoren verfügbaren Informationsmenge in Tests bedingter Kapitalmarktmodelle. Im Speziellen schlägt es die Verwendung dynamischer Faktoren als Instrumente vor. Diese fassen per Konstruktion die Information in einer Vielzahl von Variablen zusammen und stellen daher intuitive Maße für die Investoren zur Verfügung stehenden Informationen dar. Es wird gezeigt, dass so die Schätzfehler bedingter Modelle im Vergleich zu traditionellen, auf einzelnen Indikatoren beruhenden Modellvarianten substantiell verringert werden. Ausgehend von Ergebnissen, dass die Zentralbank zur Festlegung des kurzfristigen Zinssatzes eine große Menge an Informationen berücksichtigt, wird im zweiten Essay im Rahmen eines affinen Zinsstrukturmodells eine ähnliche Idee verwandt. Speziell wird die Dynamik des kurzfristigen Zinses im Rahmen einer Faktor-Vektorautoregression modelliert. Aufbauend auf dieser dynamischen Charakterisierung der Geldpolitik wird dann die Zinsstruktur unter der Annahme fehlender Arbitragemöglichkeiten hergeleitet. Das resultierende Modell liefert bessere Vorhersagen US-amerikanischer Anleihenzinsen als eine Reihe von Vergleichsmodellen. Der dritte Essay analysiert die Vorhersagekraft der Zinsstrukturkomponenten "level", "slope", und "curvature" im Rahmen eines dynamischen Faktormodells für makroökonomische und Zinsdaten. Das Modell wird mit einem Metropolis-within-Gibbs Sampling Verfahren geschätzt, und Überraschungsänderungen der drei Komponenten werden mit Hilfe von Null- und Vorzeichenrestriktionen identifiziert. Die Analyse offenbart, dass der "curvature"-Faktor informativer in Bezug auf die zukünftige Entwicklung der Zinsstruktur und der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aktivität ist als bislang vermutet. Der vierte Essay legt eine monatliche Chronologie der Konjunkturzyklen im Euro-Raum vor. Zunächst wird mit Hilfe einer verallgemeinerten Interpolationsmethode eine monatliche Zeitreihe des europäischen BIP konstruiert. Anschließend wird auf diese Zeitreihe ein Datierungsverfahren angewandt, das kurze und flache Konjunkturphasen ausschließt. / This thesis consists of four essays of independent interest which make empirical and methodological contributions to the fields of financial economics and macroeconomics. The first essay deals with the proper specification of investors’ information set in tests of conditional asset pricing models. In particular, it advances the use of dynamic factors as conditioning variables. By construction, dynamic factors summarize the information in a large number of variables and are therefore intuitively appealing proxies for the information set available to investors. The essay demonstrates that this approach substantially reduces the pricing errors implied by conditional models with respect to traditional approaches that use individual indicators as instruments. Following previous evidence that the central bank uses a large set of conditioning information when setting short-term interest rates, the second essay employs a similar insight in a model of the term structure of interest rates. Precisely, the dynamics of the short-term interest rate are modelled using a Factor-Augmented Vector-Autoregression. Based on this dynamic characterization of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates is derived under the assumption of no-arbitrage. The resulting model is shown to provide superior out-of-sample forecasts of US government bond yields with respect to a number of benchmark models. The third essay analyzes the predictive information carried by the yield curve components level, slope, and curvature within a joint dynamic factor model of macroeconomic and interest rate data. The model is estimated using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling approach and unexpected changes of the yield curve components are identified employing a combination of zero and sign restrictions. The analysis reveals that the curvature factor is more informative about the future evolution of the yield curve and of economic activity than has previously been acknowledged. The fourth essay provides a monthly business cycle chronology for the Euro area. A monthly series of Euro area real GDP is constructed using an interpolation routine that nests previously suggested approaches as special cases. Then, a dating routine is applied to the interpolated series which excludes business cycle phases that are short and flat.

Since the late 1980s, efforts made by the international community to deal with the complex and global problem of money laundering have stimulated the creation and definition of the so-called 'international crime of money laundering', which is included in various United Nations and Council of Europe international treaties, as well as European Union Directives. The Central purpose of this thesis is to investigate if the main goal of effectiveness in the adaptation of the international crime of money laundering at the domestic level, might undermine other values that international law is seeking to protect, namely the guarantee of due process and the adequate protection of human rights principles. Then, if the adoption of any element of the crime shows to be inconsistent with civil rights and guarantees, to propose how deficiencies could be remedied.

Ce travail propose une mise en perspective des pratiques de modélisation macroéconomique,depuis les travaux de Robert E. Lucas dans les années 1970 jusqu’aux contributions actuelles de l’approche dite d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE). Cette mise en perspective permet de caractériser l’essor des modèles DSGE comme un compromis entre conceptions antagonistes de la modélisation : d’une part, celle de l’approche des cycles réels (RBC) et, d’autre part, celle de la nouvelle économie keynésienne. Pour justifier cette opposition, ce travail propose une reconstruction épistémologique de l’histoire récente de la macroéconomie, à savoir une analyse des différents critères qui définissent la validité et la pertinence d’un modèle. L’hypothèse de travail est qu’on peut identifier, pour chaque pratique de modélisation,trois critères méthodologiques fondamentaux : la validité interne (l’adéquation des hypothèses d’un modèle aux concepts aux formalismes d’une théorie), la validité externe(l’adéquation des hypothèses et/ou des résultats d’un modèle au monde réel, et les procédés quantitatifs pour évaluer cette adéquation) et le critère de hiérarchie (la préférence pour la validité interne sur la validité externe, ou vice versa). Cette grille de lecture, inspirée de la littérature sur les modèles en philosophie des sciences, permet d’apporter quatre contributions originales à l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente. (1) Elle permet de concevoir l’essor des modèles DSGE sans faire appel à l’explication proposée par l’historiographie produite par les macroéconomistes eux-mêmes,à savoir l’existence d’un consensus et d’un progrès technique exogène. Contre cette vision de l’histoire en termes de progrès scientifique, nous mettons en avant les oppositions méthodologiques au sein de la macroéconomie et nous illustrons l’interdépendance entre activité théorique et développement des méthodes statistiques et économétriques. (2) La thèse s’attaque au cloisonnement entre histoire des théories macroéconomiques et histoire des méthodes quantitatives. Grâce à sa perspective méthodologique, ce travail permet d’opérer la jonction entre ces deux littératures et de développer les bases d’une vision globale des transformations récentes de la macroéconomie. (3) La relecture méthodologique de l’histoire de la modélisation permet de mettre en évidence comment la condition de validité externe a représenté le principal point de clivage entre différentes conceptions de la modélisation. La question de la validité externe apparaît par ailleurs intrinsèquement liée à la question de l’explication causale des phénomènes, sur laquelle repose largement la justification de la modélisation comme outil d’expertise des politiques économiques. (4) Ce travail aboutit à une caractérisation originale de l’approche DSGE : loin de constituer une «synthèse» ou un consensus, cette approche s’apparente à un compromis, fragilisé par l’antagonisme méthodologique entre ses parties prenantes. / This dissertation provides a history of macroeconomic modeling practices from RobertE. Lucas’s works in the 1970s up to today’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Working from a historical perspective, I suggest that the recent rise of DSGE models should be characterized as a compromise between opposing views of modeling methodology—on the one hand, the real business cycle (RBC) view, on the other hand, the new Keynesian view. In order to justify this claim, my work provides an epistemological reconstruction of the recent history of macroeconomics, building from ananalysis of the criteria defining the validity and the pertinence of a model. My assumption is that recent macroeconomic modeling practices can be described by three distinctive methodological criteria : the internal validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between models’ assumptions and concepts and formalisms of a theory), the external validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between the assumptions and results of a model and the real world, as well as the quantitative methods needed to assess such a consistency) and the hierarchization criterion (which establishes the preference for internal over external validity, or vice versa). This epistemological reconstruction draws primarily from the literature about models in the philosophy of science. My work aims to make four contributions to the history of recent macroeconomics. (1) To understand the rise of DSGE models without referring to the explanation providedby the macroeconomists themselves, who tend to think that macroeconomics evolved through theoretical consensus and exogenous technical progress. By distancing itself fromthis perspective, my work draws attention to the disruptive character of methodological controversies and to the interdependence between theoretical activity and the developmentof statistical and econometric methods. (2) To overcome the existing divide betweenthe history of macroeconomic theories and the history of quantitative methods. Throughits epistemological perspective, my work reconciles these two historiographies and specifiesthe basis for a comprehensive understanding of recent developments in macroeconomics.(3) To put the accent on the external validity condition as the main controversial issue separating different views of macro-modeling methodology. Furthermore, I illustrate how the debate about external validity is closely related to the problem of casual explanation and, finally, to the conditions for providing economic policy evaluation. (4) To characterize the DSGE approach: although DSGE models are often presented as a“synthesis”, or as a “consensus”, they are better described as a shaky compromise between two opposing methodological visions.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Darcio Martins.pdf: 419759 bytes, checksum: 62809c924d64c55fa6dcb61f10df1f7d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-06-15 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / The main goal of this thesis is to analyze Wicksell s monetary approach, with focus on the Cumulative Process. This is made through the reconstruction of theoretical and practical context in which this theory was originated, underlying its relation with the Quantitative Theory of Money. The modern debate on the quantitative character of the Wicksell s view is also analyzed. The thesis is divided in four fundamental parts: (i) the analysis of the institutional and economic environment of XIX century, focusing on the English monetary controversies; (ii) the description of the two positions in Monetary Theory that, according to Wicksell, synthesized the debate: Quantitative Theory of Money Ricardo s version and the Tooke s monetary approach; (iii) the analysis of Wicksell s monetary approach with emphasis of the Cumulative Process analysis; (iv) a brief description of Humphrey, Patinkin, Haavelmo e Leijohnufvud conceptions about the Cumulative Process and their respective opinions about the quantitative characteristic of the Wicksell s model / Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal compreender a abordagem monetária de Wicksell, com foco no Processo Cumulativo. Faz-se isto, com a análise do contexto prático-teórico em que ela foi originada, com ênfase em sua relação com a Teoria Quantitativa da Moeda; na visão do próprio autor e de seus comentadores posteriores. Para isto, dividiu-se a análise em quatro momentos fundamentais: (i) delimitação do ambiente sócio-econômico e institucional de todo o século XIX, no qual Wicksell estava inserido, com foco nas controvérsias monetárias inglesas; (ii) descrição e críticas de Wicksell das duas posições-síntese em Teoria Monetária em fins do século XIX, segundo o autor: Teoria Quantitativa da Moeda de Ricardo e abordagem de Tooke; (iii) apresentação da abordagem monetária de Wicksell: é feita a análise do modelo do Processo Cumulativo; (iv) breve descrição de algumas interpretações sobre o Processo Cumulativo: Humphrey, Patinkin, Haavelmo e Leijohnufvud, e suas respectivas opiniões sobre o caráter quantitativista ou não do modelo de Wicksell

The purpose of this thesis is to argue that the core of a monetary economy is a network of triangular contracts between banks, firms, workers and capital goods suppliers. Not only does this network give rise to the creation and valuation of money but it is the organising feature of modern economies, giving rise to both episodes of stability and crises. In constructing this argument I consider both orthodox and heterodox points of view. We analyse equilibrium models of money, and find that while money can exist in sequence economies with frictions, models of this type give no justification for its creation, valuation or holding for any significant duration, either theoretically or experimentally. Models that introduce dated goods and trading frictions to motivate the issue of risk-spreading ‘bundled’ debt are more promising for money creation, although they still cannot explain the the holding and valuation of money. Using the concept of team-production of Alchian and Demsetz and that of ‘hostage-taking’ in contracts owing to Williamson, we demonstrate how the issue of a token of generalised purchasing power from a team-production contract can enhance output and consumption. This conclusion motivates an original monetary theory of production that integrates the insights of Post-Keynesian monetary theory and the triangular contracts of the Circulation Approach and expresses them in a way that shows consistent asset and liability matching through a balance sheet approach. The creation and valuation of money and the determination of interest are embedded within the central processes of this economy. The features of the monetary production economy we analyse are in contrast to the mainstream proposition that the economy as a whole is rendered coherent by the existence of a unique and stable equilibrium determined by the utility-maximisation of households and the profit maximisation of firms. Apart from their inability to describe the economy in aggregate, such models treat money as an afterthought that is in no way core to their conception. We set the triangular contracts within a rigorous stock-flow framework of the type developed by Godley and Lavoie and argue that the shifting of the level of impact of uncertainty and failed expectations induced by money leads to specific patterns of economic disruption. These patterns are independent of the specific behavioural characteristics of households and firms and so are robust to policy changes that leave the institutions of the monetary production economy intact. We briefly assess current monetary policy and alternatives in the light of these findings.

The intent of the thesis is to ascertain whether mitigation of political risk to the IT industry in Panama can be of value to the country by improving the economy and standard of living.

[pt] Esta tese é composta de três ensaios. Os dois primeiros investigam a relação entre a potência da política monetária e a prevalência do crédito direcionado (concedido à taxas de juros insensíveis ao ciclo monetário) na economia. O primeiro mostra que a evidência microeconométrica disponível não é necessariamente informativa sobre o fenômeno macroeconômico de interessee ilustra esse resultado com um modelo Novo-Keynesiano simples com financiamento de capital de giro. Dando sequência, o segundo ensaio estende a análise usando um modelo DSGE de médio porte no qual crédito direcionado é utilizado pelas firmas para financiar a aquisição de capital. O modelo é estimado para o Brasil usando técnicas Bayesianas. Sob a distribuição priori mostra-se que a presença de crédito direcionado não reduz necessariamente a potência da política monetária sobre a inflação. Sob a distribuição posteriori mostra-se que a redução de potência é provável, mas pequena. Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio estuda em que medida o efeito de fluxos de capitais sobre o ciclo de negócios depende do tipo do influxo (e.g., se para títulos ou para ações, se um fluxo de ativo ou de passivo), construindo para tanto um modelo Novo-Keynesiano de economia aberta com fricções financeiras. Identifica-se mecanismos diretos através dos quais o influxo pode ter efeito diferenciado dependendo do seu tipo. Conclui-se, usando uma versão calibrada do modelo, que as diferenças são provavelmente pouco significativas. / [en] This thesis is comprised of three essays. The first two investigate the relationship between monetary policy power and the prevalence of earmarked credit (featuring interest rates that are insensitive to the monetary cycle) in the economy. The first shows that the available microeconometric evidence is not necessarily informative about the macroeconomic phenomenon of interest, and illustrates this result with a simples New-Keynesian model with working capital credit. Giving sequence, the second essay extends the analysis with a medium-sized DSGE model where earmarked credit is used to finance the acquisition of physical capital by firms. The model is estimated to Brazil using Bayesian techniques. Under the prior distribution it is shown that the presence of earmarked credit does not necessarily reduces monetary policy power over inflation. Under the posterior it is shown that a reduction of power is likely, but small. Finally, the third essay studies to what extent the effects of capital flows on a small open economy s business cycle depend on the type of the inflow (e.g., whether a bond or a stock inflow, a liability or an asset flow), and for such it build an open economy New-Keynesian model with financial frictions. Direct mechanisms through which inflows may have differentiated effects depending or their type are identified. Using a calibrated version of the model it concludes that the differences are probably of little significance.

The contribution of this thesis is to build a small macro-econometric model of the Namibian economy, which demonstrates that there is significant statistical support for the hypothesis that there is a contemporaneous relationship between real wage, productivity, unemployment and interest rates in Namibia. This phenomenon has not yet been exploited using macro-econometric modelling, and thus, represents a significant contribution to modelling literature in Namibia. The determination of the sources of unemployment also receives special attention given that high unemployment is a chronic problem in Namibia. All models specified and estimated in the study use the SVAR methodology for the period 1980 to 2013. The study develops a small macro-econometric model using three modular experiments, which include, a basic model, models that separately append demand and exchange rate channels variables to the basic model, and the specification of a small macro-econometric model. The ultimate aim is to find out if monetary policy plays a role in influencing labour market and nominal variables. The hypothesis that the basic real wage, productivity, unemployment rate and interest rate system can be estimated simultaneously is validated. Further, demand and exchange rate channels variables are found to have important additional information, which explains the monetary transmission process, and that shocks to labour market variables affect monetary policy in Namibia. The results also show that the demand channel (import prices and bank credit to the private sector) and the exchange rate channel (nominal exchange rate) variables have important additional information, which affects monetary transmission process in Namibia, which justifies their inclusion in the small macro-econometric model. In addition, shocks to the import price and exchange rate in the macro-econometric model significantly affect labour market variables. However, shocks to bank credit only partially perform as expected, implying that its results need to be considered cautiously. The study further finds that tight monetary policy shocks significantly affect real and nominal variables in Namibia. The results also show that shocks to all variables in the unemployment model significantly affect unemployment, suggesting that the hysteresis assumption is corroborated. This implies that long run aggregate demand is non-neutral in Namibia. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)