The aim of the thesis is to examine, mainly, how labour market dynamics affect unemployment. We consider labour market models where current decisions - regarding employment, wage setting, and labour supply behaviour - depend on past decisions, and where these lagged adjustment processes interact. These interactions are the centerpiece of the chain reaction theory of unemployment, in which each labour market shock has a chain reaction of unemployment effects. Chapter 1 analyzes two important dynamic influences: (i) the prolonged effects of temporary shocks, called unemployment persistence, and (ii) the delayed effects of permanent shocks, which we call imperfect unemployment responsiveness. Focusing on three countries - Germany, UK, and US - we identify significant labour market lags, and measure the degree to which these lags are responsible for unemployment persistence and imperfect responsiveness. Chapter 2 shows that in multi-equation labour market models containing lagged endogenous variables and exogenous variables with nonzero long-run growth rates the natural rate of unemployment - as conventionally defined for empirical purposes - is not a reference point (a value toward which the equilibrium unemployment rate tends with the passage of time). Chapter 3 evaluates the natural rate and chain reaction theories of unemployment. For an empirical model of the UK labour market, we show that un-employment does not converge to the natural rate, as conventionally defined. Furthermore, we show that the labour market lags account for a substantial part of the UK long-run equilibrium unemployment rate as well as for the movement of UK unemployment over the past one and a half decades. Chapter 4 shows that real inertia (sluggish adjustment of real variables) may have a powerful role to play in generating the real effects of nominal (demand) shocks, and nominal inertia (sluggish adjustment of nominal wages and prices) may be important in propagating real (supply-side) shocks.

The adaptive process can be considered as being driven by two fundamental forces: exploitation and exploration. While the explorative process may be deterministic, the resultant effect may be stochastic. Stochastic effects may also exist in the expoitative process. This thesis considers the effects of stochastic fluctuations inherent in the adaptive process on the behavioural dynamics of a population of interacting agents. It is hypothesied that in such systems, one or more attractors in the population space exist; and that transitions between these attractors can occur; either as a result of internal shocks (sampling fluctuations) or external shocks (environmental changes). It is further postulated that such transitions in the (microscopic) population space may be observable as phase transitions in the behaviour of macroscopic observables. A simple model of a stock market, driven by asexual reproduction (selection plus mutation) is put forward as a testbed. A statistical dynamics analysis of the behaviour of this market is then developed. Fixed points in the space of agent behaviours are located, and market dynamics are compared to the analytic predictions. Additionally, an analysis of the relative importance of internal shocks(sampling fluctuations) and external shocks( the stock dividend sequence) across varying population size is presented.

Following the studies of technology trajectories, Christiansen (1997) coined the concept of disruptive innovation to shed more light on the pattern of discontinuous innovations which were introducing new performance values to the market and mostly led to create a new market. Following his studies there have been a huge amount of scholars who have tried to elucidate the concept of disruptive innovations from different points of views. Among all of these studies, there are few researches about the dynamic of disruptive innovations diffusion in the market while most of the studies have focused on the concept itself. According to Porter (2008) the dynamic of market competition has been totally changed over the past decade and survivance of incumbents in the market mostly depends on their capability to innovate disruptively and keep their dominancy by radical or incremental improvements. Considering the desire of incumbents to set a dominant position in today’s fast growing markets, getting the ultimate benefits of disruptive innovations has become a disputable issue. Therefore, focusing on the dynamic of disruptive innovations, this research tries to elucidate the way that market leaders take an unknown potential disruptive innovation out of its dark corner during its infancy time, raise it and disrupt the mainstream market relying on it to establish a new market. Focusing on the dynamic of innovation diffusion, this research has chosen the high-tech medical market of Iran as the main target of empirical field work. Novelty of this concept in medical markets and also appropriateness of invasive cardiovascular devices business in terms of great amount of disruptive innovation, make this case study appropriate for the purpose of this research. Therefore conducting a longitude case study of Iranian invasive cardiovascular market during the past 10 years, this research conducts 30 semi-structured interviews with the key decision makers of the four main incumbents of Iranian invasive cardiovascular market about launching new innovations including: Johnson and Johnson (Cordis), Abbott Laboratories, Boston Scientific and Medtronic. The findings of these interviews are supported by the results of archival researches for more validity and reliability. Finally these findings will get compared with the conceptual framework of research in the discussion chapter to modify the existing literatures and in some cases add some new theoretical notions to them. The main contribution of this research is to identify the accelerating factors of disruptive innovation diffusion from, strategic, technological and cultural points of views. These findings can help practitioners to accelerate the diffusion rate of their disruptive innovations to disrupt the market earlier than the others and set their dominant position in the market as a market leader. Also it will provide an opportunity for the other scholars to build on more about the concept of disruptive innovation diffusion.

Financial markets have been subjected to numerous regulations during the last two decades. MiFID2/MiFIR and MAD2/MAR are two extensive regulations that will apply on European level during 2016 - 2018. Both these regulations stress areas that are of relevance to trade surveillance. Trade surveillance systems are IT systems applied to the market for financial instruments to identify market abuse or other harmful patterns in participants’ trading activity. The purpose of this report is to map the market of trade surveillance technology in Stockholm, Sweden, and examine the impact on these actors in conjunction with the regulations. Since MiFID2/MiFIR and MAD2/MAR are extensive regulations, these were condensed to key points that were considered as relevant for surveillance.   This research is a qualitative study and data was gathered by interviews with market actors. A pre-study and a literature study were made. These were used as basis to construct an analytical framework for market dynamics, which was used as a descriptive concept to design interview questions, structure data and analyze results. The framework was named Market Dynamics Framework and considered the macro-environmental factors: Technology, Actors’ preferences, Market structure and Regulations.   The market was segmented in order to more accurately examine regulatory impact. Market actors were divided into four groups. The results were analyzed according to the framework and for each of the segmented market actor groups. Preference of surveillance solution was shown to be one distinct difference between every segment. A purchased surveillance system from a vendor was most common, and actors of smaller scale preferred to outsource.   The market is concluded to be prepared in terms of having systems and arrangement for monitoring trades in place. Expected impact is mostly related to new market structures and more detailed data of larger amounts. Increased capacity need for surveillance departments is expected in combination with a need for more advanced technologies; e.g. automatic screening of social media, efficient minimization of false positives, functionality coverage for a broader range of financial instruments.   This research introduces two concepts as descriptive frames, Market Dynamics Framework and a segmentation. These are proposed as methods when conducting a market analysis. A validation study for these methods is suggested as a possible topic for future studies.

Property market forecasts play a crucial role in modern real estate valuation methodologies and, consequently, flawed forecasts can have adverse impacts on the accuracy of valuations. This thesis identifies property industry inconsistencies in the formulation and application of office rent forecasts adopted in discounted cash flow (DCF) studies used to assess the value of commercial properties and the viability of proposed projects. Existing research on commercial property cycles and office property market modelling is examined in order to identify the dominant market drivers adopted by researchers. Forecasting techniques are also explored towards specifying space and rent models for the Brisbane CBD office market using the perceived dominant drivers as explanatory variables. Surveys of property valuers and developers are undertaken to underpin the selection of these variables. The implications of varying rent forecasts applied in DCF based valuation assessments are tested through the use of a case study involving four Brisbane office buildings. Innovative research is conducted through adopting geographic information system supported land use and historical valuation studies to delineate market precincts within the Brisbane CBD. The rent model is then re-estimated using precinct based office rent data to allow the generation of forecasts for the individual precincts. Out-of-sample accuracy test results for the precinct forecasts are compared with the results produced by the model specified using whole-of-city data. The literature reviews, surveys and model testing determine a relatively consistent range of dominant explanatory variables applicable to office markets. The case study, in a local context, confirms that varying forecasts do have a significant impact on property valuations. Tests of the forecast results generated by the Brisbane CBD model provide some evidence that more plausible office rent forecasts stem from the use of market models as compared with solely applying professional judgement based forecasts. Subject to data availability limitations, the precinct based rent model is found to produce rent forecasts superior to those generated by the whole-of-city model. Finally, the thesis makes a range of industry recommendations towards enhancing forecasts and recommendations are also made for potential future research projects.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:25:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ThiagoAD_DISSERT.pdf: 4312027 bytes, checksum: 14bdb3d16e22a15818a0509e2a6f17df (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-07-25 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / The size and dynamics of the market producer, consumer and exporter of the Captaincy of Rio Grande do Norte, in the period between 1760 and 1821 is the primary goal of this dissertation. In order to establish relations between the founding of new towns built from 1750 and its incorporation into the water supply and domestic market, showing more specifically the colonial economic relations established between the coast and the hinterland of the Province. Based on references by authors such as Edward Shils and Immanuel Wallerstein have investigated topics such as formation of colonial space, deployment-action of colonial institutions regarding business practices, and the dynamic market of the Province of Rio Grande do Norte. / A dimens?o e din?mica do mercado produtor, consumidor e exportador da Capitania do Rio Grande do Norte, no per?odo compreendido entre 1760 e 1821 ? o objetivo primordial dessa disserta??o. Para tanto, estabelecemos rela??es entre a funda??o das novas vilas criadas a partir de 1750 e sua inser??o nas redes de abastecimento e mercado interno, evidenciando mais especificamente as rela??es econ?micas coloniais estabelecidas entre o litoral e os sert?es da Capitania. Partindo de refer?ncias te?ricos de autores como Edward Shils e Immanuel Wallerstein, investigamos temas como: forma??o do espa?o colonial, implementa??o/a??o das institui??es coloniais no tocante as pr?ticas comerciais e as din?micas mercantis da Capitania do Rio Grande do Norte.

[pt] O presente trabalho examina a redefinição da relação entre Estado e Mercado no Brasil, tendo como referência os processos de privatização conduzidos nos anos 1990, à luz das particularidades desfrutadas pela desestatização da Companhia Vale do Rio Doce. Tomando como ponto de partida as transformações no ecossistema empresarial alavancadas pelo fenômeno da globalização, determinadas especificidades do capitalismo no contexto brasileiro e as perspectivas Neoliberal e Nacional Desenvolvimentista, este trabalho visa compreender a amplitude da influência do Governo Federal no processo decisório da Companhia Vale do Rio Doce entre 1997 a 2011, período imediatamente posterior a privatização, que atravessa os Governos de Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) e de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). A investigação revelou que existem evidências de interferência do Governo Federal na empresa. O modelo de venda adotado pelos Governos do PSDB concedia espaço à influência governamental. Nos Governos do PT a interferência se ampliou, tendo o BNDES um papel relevante nesse processo. / [en] This paper examines the redefinition of State and Market dynamics in Brazil, taking into account privatization processes conducted in the 1990s and highlighting the particularities regarding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce privatization. Departing from the business environment changes carried out by the globalization phenomenon, certain Brazilian capitalism specificities and both Neoliberal and National Developmentalist perspectives, this research aims to understand the extent of Federal Government influence in Companhia Vale do Rio Doce decision-making process during 1997-2011 – a period shortly after privatization – traversing Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) governments. The investigation revealed that there are evidences of Federal Government interference in the company. The privatization model adopted by the PSDB Governments allowed a sort of government influence that had increased throughout the PT Governments with BNDES playing a key role in this process.

This thesis investigates overeducation as an aspect of integration among the second generation in Western Europe. As the second generation grows and establishes themselves in the labour market, research about their labour market outcomes becomes increasingly important. Using nine rounds (2002-2018) of the European Social Survey (ESS), this thesis investigates the impact of being a second generation on the probability of being overeducated in Western Europe. An overeducation-measure is developed using the realised matches-approach and weighted linear probability models are performed on pooled and country-stratified samples. The thesis takes into account labour market supply-and demand-side characteristics to discuss possible mechanisms behind the results. The results show that across Western Europe, the second generation faces a higher probability of being overeducated compared to their native counterparts. The UK stands out, where the second generation is subject to an 8,53-percentage point higher probability of being overeducated than the natives. Parental origin and level of education are important supply-side factors, where the second generation with parents from non-EU countries and those with non-tertiary educated parents have higher probabilities of being overeducated. On the demand-side, employment and unemployment protection regulations are associated with overeducation, where stricter employment protection and higher net replacement rates in unemployment is associated with lower probabilities of overeducation among the second generation. This thesis highlights the importance of assessing the labour market supply- and demand-side characteristics in research about labour market outcomes for the second generation, and contributes to the research field with the comparative perspective.

The thesis examines technology adoption within the real estate development industry, an industry that has historically lagged the adoption rate of innovations compared to industrial counterparts. The study finds that the favorable market conditions for real estate as an asset class following the debt crisis in 2008 may have been a significant denominator in slowing down the technology adoption within the industry when several industries at the same time have faced fundamental industrial disruption. The absence of vertical integration within the industry decreases the transparency and complicates the emergence of innovative solutions as technology developers continuously fail to identify what features and functionalities that are desired by industry practitioners. The study finds that the higher the observability of the innovation, the higher is the probability of technology adoption within an organization. In addition, organizations are heavily dependent on having the facilitating conditions in-place internally to enable an effective technology adoption and implementation. / Avhandlingen granskar teknikupptagning inom fastighetsutvecklingsbranschen, en bransch som historiskt sett har haft en lägre adoptionsgrad av innovationer jämfört med industriella motsvarigheter. Studien konstaterar att de gynnsamma marknadsförhållandena för fastigheter som tillgångsslag efter finanskrisen 2008 kan ha varit en betydande nämnare för att hålla tillbaka teknikutvecklingen i industrin när flera industrier samtidigt har genomgått fundamental förändring. Frånvaron av vertikal integration inom branschen minskar insynen och komplicerar framväxten av innovativa lösningar, eftersom teknikutvecklare kontinuerligt har misslyckats att identifiera de funktioner och funktionaliteter som önskas av professionella inom branschen. Studien konstaterar att ju högre möjligheten att observera innovationens kapacitet är, desto högre är sannolikheten för teknisk adoption inom en organisation. Dessutom konstateras att organisationer är starkt beroende av att stödjande infrastruktur finns på plats internt för att möjliggöra en effektiv teknikupptagning och implementation.

Diese Dissertation hat zum Ziel, digitale Vermögenswerte statistisch zu durchleuchten und damit einen Beitrag zur Integration digitaler Vermögenswerte in die digitale Gesellschaft zu leisten. Die Kapitel dieser Arbeit lassen sich unter den Schlagworten Abbildung und Analyse der Marktdynamiken von digitalen Vermögenswerten, sowie Investitionen in digitale Vermögenswerte zusammenfassen. Das erste Kapitel, Abbildung der Marktdynamiken digitaler Vermögenswerte, evaluiert die derzeit existierenden Indizes für Kryptowährungen (KWen) sowohl qualitativ als auch quantitativ. Als Grundlage für die Analyse des KW-Sektors ist zunächst eine geeignete Abbildung von dessen Marktdynamiken nötig. Die schnelle Entwicklung des KW-Sektors, seine hohe Volatilität und das häufige Aufkommen und Verschwinden von KWen stellen die Emittenten von KW-Indizes vor Herausforderungen. Jeder Index geht mit diesen Herausforderungen anders um und so unterscheiden sich die methodischen Ansätze der Indizes ebenso wie ihre statistischen Eigenschaften. Das zweite Kapitel, Analyse der Marktdynamiken von digitalen Vermögenswerten, untersucht die Dynamiken des KW-Sektors. Damit sich der KW-Sektor etablieren und in die Finanzwelt integriert werden kann, müssen zunächst die zugrunde liegenden Dynamiken verstanden werden. Wir modellieren die nicht-stationären Renditen und deren Volatilität durch zwei stochastische Differentialgleichungen und schätzen deren Parameter auf Bayes’sche Weise. Dabei identifizieren wir verschiedene Muster des KW-Sektors in Bezug auf Renditen, Volatilität und Sprünge. Im dritten Kapitel, Investitionen in digitale Vermögenswerte, konstruieren wir einen ETF auf den CRIX (vgl. Trimborn and Härdle, 2018), einen Index für den KW-Sektor. Dabei beleuchten wir die zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen, identifizieren potentielle Risiken und schätzen die Kostenstruktur eines solchen KW-ETFs ab. Damit ebnen wir den Weg für die Implementierung dieses neuartigen Finanzprodukts. / This dissertation aims to shed light on the new asset class „digital assets“ from a statistical perspective and thus contributes to the integration of digital assets into the digital society. The chapters of this thesis can be summarized by the keywords tracking, understanding, and investing in digital assets. The first chapter, tracking digital assets, evaluates the currently existing cryptocurrency (CC) indices both qualitatively and quantitatively. As a basis for the analysis of the CC sector, it is first necessary to find an appropriate mapping of the market dynamics. The rapid development of the CC sector, its high volatility and the frequent emergence and disappearance of CCs pose challenges for the issuers of CC indices. Each index deals with these challenges differently, and so the methodological approaches of the indices differ, as do their statistical properties. The second chapter, understanding digital assets, examines the dynamics of the CC sector. For the CC sector to become established and integrated, the underlying dynamics must first be understood. Therefore, we model the non-stationary returns and volatility by two stochastic differential equations and estimate their parameters in a Bayesian manner. Thereby, we identify several patterns on the dynamics of the CC sector with respect to returns, volatility and jumps. The third chapter, investing in digital assets, aims to pave the way for the integration of digital assets into the financial sector. As investments in digital assets remain risky due to high volatility and frequent disappearance of CCs, ETFs are a suitable tool to invest in this sector. We construct an ETF on the CRIX (cf. Trimborn and Härdle, 2018), an index for the CC sector. In doing so, we reveal the underlying mechanisms, risks and costs of such a new financial product and pave the way for its implementation.