Submitted by Marcio Gabrielli (marcio.gabrielli@fgv.br) on 2018-07-04T02:39:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MFG_final_ecadernação.pdf: 2878379 bytes, checksum: 28ebd84c3ad4ad62d72a2e31828c8dc3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Debora Nunes Ferreira (debora.nunes@fgv.br) on 2018-07-10T17:35:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MFG_final_ecadernação.pdf: 2878379 bytes, checksum: 28ebd84c3ad4ad62d72a2e31828c8dc3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-07-10T17:42:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MFG_final_ecadernação.pdf: 2878379 bytes, checksum: 28ebd84c3ad4ad62d72a2e31828c8dc3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-10T17:42:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_MFG_final_ecadernação.pdf: 2878379 bytes, checksum: 28ebd84c3ad4ad62d72a2e31828c8dc3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-05 / Este trabalho analisou os motivos que levam empresas brasileiras a realizarem emissões de títulos de dívida no mercado internacional. Para tanto, utilizou-se a lei que estabeleceu a taxação sobre os derivativos cambiais (anunciada em 26/07/2011, implementada em 16/09/2011 e revogada em 12/06/2013), vigente durante o período do então Ministro da Fazenda Guido Mantega, como um evento quase-natural para analisar se a probabilidade de emissão no mercado internacional é afetada por uma medida governamental. Constatou-se uma redução na probabilidade de emissão de bônus por empresas brasileiras no mercado internacional durante a vigência da lei, ao passo que se constatou um aumento desta probabilidade para emissões no mercado interno, sugerindo um efeito de substituição. Este efeito estaria ligado ao fato de que a taxação dos derivativos cambiais teria gerado uma quebra da paridade coberta das taxas de juros, pois o custo de emissão no mercado nacional teria ficado mais baixo do que o custo no mercado internacional quando computado o valor do hedge cambial. Este efeito foi evidenciado de forma mais clara ao se constatar que ele afetou de forma diferente empresas que apresentavam exposições distintas em relação à variação cambial. Empresas exportadoras líquidas, para as quais a dívida em moeda estrangeira funcionaria com o hedge natural de suas operações, foram menos afetadas que as empresa importadoras líquidas, as quais necessitariam realizar o hedge cambial de suas dívidas em outras moedas, para não incorrerem em uma maior exposição cambial. Desta forma, foi possível evidenciar que as empresas agem na direção de captar recursos no mercado que lhes possibilite o menor custo final de captação, buscando 'janelas de oportunidade' entre os mercados local e internacional – já incorporado o valor do hedge para eliminação dos riscos cambiais – para decidir onde emitir seus títulos de dívida. Estes resultados também possibilitam argumentar que o governo foi capaz de influenciar a decisão de financiamento – uma tomada de decisão interna das empresas a respeito da emissão de dívida no mercado local ou internacional – assim como afetar o seu (delas) custo de captação e consequentemente seu custo de capital. / This paper analyzes the reasons that lead Brazilian companies to issue debt securities in the international market. For this purpose, the law that established the taxation on foreign exchange derivatives (announced on 07/26/2011, implemented on 09/16/2011 and revoked on 06/12/2013), in force during the period of the then Minister of Fazenda Guido Mantega, was used as a quasi-natural event to analyze whether the probability of issuance in the international market is affected by a governmental measure. A reduction in the probability of issuance of bonds by Brazilian companies in the international market during the period of the law was observed, while an increase in this probability for domestic issues was observed, suggesting a substitution effect. This effect would be related to the fact that the taxation of foreign exchange derivatives would have generated a break in the covered interest rate parity, since the cost of issuance in the domestic market would have been lower than the cost of issuance in the international market after computing the hedge cost of the foreign exchange risk. This effect was more clearly evidenced by the fact that it affected in a different way companies with different foreign exchange exposures. Net exporting companies, for which the foreign exchange debt would function as a natural hedge of their operations, were less affected than net importing companies, which would need to hedge their foreign exchange debts in order not to incur in a larger foreign exchange exposure. In this way, there were evidences that companies act in the direction of raising funds in the market that allows them the lowest final funding cost, seeking 'windows of opportunity' between local and international markets – already incorporating the foreign exchange hedge cost – in order to decide in which market to issue their debt securities. These results also make it possible to argue that the government was able to influence corporate internal financing decision – debt issuance in domestic or international markets – as well as affect its funding costs and hence its cost of capital.

Syfte: Utvecklingen av skuldsatta företagsförvärv har genomgått betydande förändringar sedan fenomenet först introducerades på 1980-talet, både vad gäller den totala skuldnivån och val av skuldinstrument. Tidigare forskning erbjuder flera alternativa förklaringar till vad som påverkar skuldsättningen. Syftet med studien är därför att undersöka vilka faktorer som påverkar skuldsättningen vid högbelånade företagsförvärv i Sverige. Metod: Studien tillämpar en kvantitativ deduktiv ansats med utgångspunkt i den positivistiska forskningsfilosofin. Studiens insamlade data av sekundärdata inhämtat från Thomson Reuters datastream Refinitiv Eikon. 89 svenska bolag har blivit uppköpta med högbelåning av riskkapitalbolag bolag mellan 2000–2023. Studiens data har sedan analyserats med hjälp av statistikprogrammet SPSS, där univariat, bivariat och multivariata analyser genomförts.  Resultat och slutsats: Resultatet från uppsatsen visar att skuldsättningen i svenska högbelånade företagsförvärv kan förklaras med hjälp av den klassiska hackordningsteorin. Resultatet skiljer sig från forskning från USA och Europa som menar att marknadstajmingsteorin förklarar skuldsättningen bättre vid belånade företagsförvärv. Examensarbetets bidrag: Studien bidrar med kunskap till banker, riskkapitalbolag, företagsledare och investerare. För bankerna innebär arbetet en möjlighet att förbättra riskhanteringen och kreditbedömningen vid långivning. Riskkapitalbolagen kan genomföra bättre investeringsbeslut och skapa hållbara kapitalstrukturer.Förslag till fortsatt forskning: För framtida forskning hade det varit intressant att utvidga urvalet till att studera hela Norden. Det vore också spännande för framtida forskning inom skuldsättning och högbelånade företagsförvärv att göra detta med en kvalitativ ansats. / Aim: The development of leveraged buyouts has undergone significant changes since the phenomenon was first introduced in the 1980s, both in terms of the overall debt levels and the choices of debt instruments. Previous research provides several alternative explanations for what influences the indebtedness. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to examine which factors that influence the leverage in leveraged buyouts in Sweden.  Method: The study employs a quantitative deductive approach based on the positivist research philosophy. The collected data is derived from secondary sources, specifically Thomson Reuters Datastream Refinitiv Eikon. The sample consists of 89 Swedish companies that have been acquired through leverage buyouts by Swedish private equity firms between 2000 and 2023. The study's data has subsequently been analyzed using the statistical software SPSS, with univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses conducted. Results and conclusions: The findings of the thesis indicate that the leverage in Swedish leverage buyouts can be explained by employing the classical Pecking order theory. This result differs from research conducted in the United States and Europe, which suggests that market timing theory provides a better explanation for leverage in leverage buyouts. Contribution of the Thesis: The study contributes knowledge to banks, private equity firms, corporate leaders, and investors. For banks, the thesis presents an opportunity to enhance risk management and credit assessment in lending. Private equity firms can make better investment decisions and establish sustainable capital structures. Suggestions for future research: For future research, it would be interesting to expand the sample to encompass the entire Nordic region. It would also be exciting for future research in debt and leverage buyouts to adopt a qualitative approach

Essay one investigates registered insider sales as stated in the final prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to test managerial market timing ability during the Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO) process. Using a comprehensive sample of 1,051 SEOs between 1997 and 2005, the findings suggest that the initial market reaction and the long-run post-issue performance of issuers are negatively related to C-level executive insider sales, but unrelated to sales by non-executive insiders. Overall, the findings are consistent with the notion that executive insiders are aware of the mispricing in their firm’s securities and successfully time their sales by participating in the secondary components of SEOs. The implication is that SEOs with C-level executive sales are overvalued relative to both SEOs without insider sales and SEOs with only non-executive insider sales. In the second essay, we compare shareholder wealth effects of dual-class and single-class Seasoned Equity Offerings (SEOs) between 1997 and 2005. While there is no difference in pre-issue stock performance or the initial market reaction to the SEO announcements, dual-class issuers significantly underperform single-class issuers in the post-issue years. The mean three-year underperformance of dual-class firms relative to single-class is a significant 28.93% (30.45%) in buy-and-hold raw (abnormal) stock returns, and robust to alternative model specifications. We document that this relative long-run stock underperformance is related to differences in the impacts of post-issue capital expenditures and acquisitions for dual and single-class issuers. Similarly, post-issue corporate cash holdings also contribute less to the shareholder wealth for dual-class firms.

Syfte: Undersökningen syftar till att utifrån teorier kring kapitalstruktur och empiriska samband mellan skuldsättning och lönsamhet diskutera hur skuldsättning kan användas i ekonomistyrning. Metod: Undersökningen är gjord enligt kvantitativ forskningsmetod. Sekundärdata hämtas och analyseras med statistiska metoder. Resultaten diskuteras med teoretisk referensram. Slutsats :Studiens empiriska resultat visar på ett signifikant negativt samband mellan skuldsättning (​TSK ​ ) och lönsamhet (​ROA ​ ), samt ett signifikant positivt samband mellan skuldsättning (​TSK ​ ) och lönsamhet (​ROE ​ ). De empiriska resultaten tyder på att hur skuldsättning kan användas i ekonomistyrning beror på hur lönsamhet mäts. / Purpose: This study aims to; from theories of capital structure and empirical relations between debt and profitability discuss how debt can be used in management control. Method: This study follow quantitative research method. Secondary data is retrieved and analyzed by statistical methods. The results are discussed with the theoretical framework. Conclusion: Empirical results indicate a significant negative relationship between debt (​TSK ​ ) and profitability (​ROA ​ ), followed by a significant positive relationship between debt (​TSK ​ ) and profitability (​ROE ​ ). Empirical results further suggest that the measure of profitability is crucial for how debt can be used in management control.

Submitted by Guilherme Machado (guilhermelelis@hotmail.com) on 2009-07-19T00:38:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertaçao MFEE Guilherme Machado.pdf: 462723 bytes, checksum: 37f59af1f922d119bd5b61eb3adeb553 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza(vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2009-07-20T14:10:37Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertaçao MFEE Guilherme Machado.pdf: 462723 bytes, checksum: 37f59af1f922d119bd5b61eb3adeb553 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2009-07-20T14:11:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertaçao MFEE Guilherme Machado.pdf: 462723 bytes, checksum: 37f59af1f922d119bd5b61eb3adeb553 (MD5) / Several studies in Corporate Finance consider adjustment costs of companies’ capital structure irrelevant in its form and magnitude. This paper empirically examined adjustment costs influence on dynamic rebalancing behavior of capital structure of Brazilian listed companies from 1999 to 2007. Leverage ratios were presented under three different scenarios, considering fixed costs, proportional costs and a composition of fixed and proportional costs using a simulated reduced model of the capital structure. A non-parametric data analysis reveals that companies present a dynamic behavior in its financing decisions of capital structure adjustment, but that is far from continuous. A duration model proved to be the best choice to measure time between companies’ capital structure adjustments. Results are strongly relevant and support the theory of companies’ dynamic rebalancing behavior around an optimal range. However, adjustments do not occur immediately and the persistence shocks to capital structure accounts in its great part to adjustments costs instead of a possible indifference toward capital structure. This is a pioneer paper accounting for a djustment cost of capital structure in Brazilian market, which makes room for discussion around optimal capital structure on Brazilian companies. / Diversos estudos de Finanças Corporativas consideram os custos associados aos ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas irrelevantes tanto na forma quanto em magnitude. Este estudo analisou empiricamente a influência dos custos de ajustamento na dinâmica dos ajustes da estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 1999 a 2007. A alavancagem foi abordada sob três diferentes cenários, considerando a presença de custos fixos, custos proporcionais e por uma composição de custos fixos e proporcionais através de simulações utilizando um modelo reduzido da estrutura de capital. Em seguida a análise não paramétrica da amostra revelou que as empresas apresentam um comportamento dinâmico em suas decisões de financiamento para o ajuste da estruturas de capital, mas que não se revelou contínuo. A utilização de um modelo de duration mostrou-se adequado para mensurar o intervalo de tempo entre os ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados são extremamente relevantes e suportam a teoria de um comportamento de rebalanceamento dinâmico pelas empresas de suas estruturas de capital em torno de um intervalo ótimo. Entretanto os ajustes não ocorrem de forma imediata e a persistência de choques à estrutura de capital deve-se em sua maior parte aos custos associados aos ajustes do que a uma possível indiferença à estrutura de capital. . Este trabalho constitui-se como pioneiro no mercado brasileiro acerca dos custos de ajustamento da estrutura de capital e abre espaço para a discussão do comportamento ótimo em torno da estrutura de capital de empresas nacionais.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:51:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 98468.pdf.jpg: 15556 bytes, checksum: 82354d9e302b0f5851ce3c9150147d2f (MD5) 98468.pdf: 841055 bytes, checksum: d3f59690cddbb38713e374ee903838c6 (MD5) 98468.pdf.txt: 263196 bytes, checksum: 5c0fa64209b55216a17821d5d4e86f3a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004-04-15T00:00:00Z / Este trabalho analisa a abordagem oportunista nas decisões de financiamento, buscando evidências desse comportamento nas empresas brasileiras. O oportunismo sugere que o administrador escolha as fontes de recursos economicamente mais vantajosas no momento da decisão, não se preocupando com uma hierarquia de captação de fundos, ou com a manutenção de um nível de endividamento ótimo. As evidências empíricas apontam para a existência de oportunismo na escolha das fontes de financiamento e influência de fatores macroeconômicos na determinação do nível de endividamento. / We analyze the windows of opportunity theory in capital structure decisions, searching for evidences on this behaviour in Brazillian publicly held companies. The opportunistic approach suggests that managers make their capital structure choices based on economic advantages offered by each source of funds. That means, managers do not follow a pecking order nor a target adjustment model. Empirical evidences points to managerial opportunism behaviour in the financing decisions and strong macroeconomic factors influence on leverage. Public debt from Government competes with companies for sources of funds; interest rate and stock market liquidity are negatively related to leverage.

Die studie vergelyk die prestasie van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie met die van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie binne die raamwerk van die arbitrasie-prysbepalingsteorie (APT) op die nywerheidsindeks van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JA). Die periode van die studie is oor twee tydperke, naamlik Januarie 1970 tot September 1987 en Januarie 1989 tot Junie 1997. Die langtermyntendens van die nywerheidsindeks en APT-faktore is bepaal deur die beste nie-reglynige model vir elke tydreeks te vind. Reglynige meervoudige stapsgewyse regressie-ontleding is gebruik om die bewegings van die nywerheidsindeks rondom die langtermyntendens te voorspel. Die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore en die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling is as moontlike voorspellers gebruik. Gegrond hierop is beslissingslyne ontwik:kel wat gebruik is vir die implementering van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie. Die resultate van die studie is die volgende: • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APTfaktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 6, 41 persent en 0, 71 persent b6 die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 10,40 persent en 1,04 persent b6 die van 'n koop-enhou- strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. Die belangrikste gevolgtrekking van die studie is dat die APT en 'n tydsberekeningstrategie teoreties en prakties versoenbaar is op die JA. Aanbevelings vir toekomstige navorsing is die volgende: ( 1) sistematiese risikofaktore, anders as makro-ekonomiese faktore, behoort identifiseer te word wat die voorspellingswaarde van die faktore in die tweede tydperk van die studie kan verhoog; (2) elke stap van die model wat ontwikkel is, behoort op elke indeks van die JA toegepas te word om die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie toegepas op elkeen van die indekse met die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie te vergelyk; en (3) die invloed van transaksiekoste en dividende op die potensiele voordele van tydsberekening moet bepaal word. / The study compares the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy with that of a markettiming strategy in the framework of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) applied to the industrial index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study period is divided into two parts, namely January 1970 to September 1987 and January 1989 to June 1997. The long-term trend of the industrial index and every APT factor is determined by finding the best nonlinear model for each time series. Linear multiple stepwise regression analysis, with the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors, is used to forecast the movement of the industrial index around its long-term trend. Decision lines were developed to implement a market-timing strategy. The results of the study are as follows: • Where the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the risk-adjusted return of a markettiming strategy was 6, 41 percent and 0, 71 percent higher than that of a buyand- hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. • Where the lagged time series of the first-order difference of the long-term trend error term of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the riskadjusted return of the market-timing strategy was 10,40 percent and 1,04 percent higher than that of a buy-and-hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. The main conclusion of the study is that the APT and a market-timing strategy are theoretically and practically reconcilable on the JSE. The main recommendations of the study are the following: (1) systematic risk factors, other than macroeconomic factors, should be identified in order to increase the forecasting value of these factors in the second period of the study; (2) each step of the model developed in this study should be repeated on every index of the JSE; and (3) the influence of transaction costs and dividends on the potential benefits of a market-timing strategy should be determined. / Business Management / DCom (Sakebestuur)

Die studie vergelyk die prestasie van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie met die van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie binne die raamwerk van die arbitrasie-prysbepalingsteorie (APT) op die nywerheidsindeks van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JA). Die periode van die studie is oor twee tydperke, naamlik Januarie 1970 tot September 1987 en Januarie 1989 tot Junie 1997. Die langtermyntendens van die nywerheidsindeks en APT-faktore is bepaal deur die beste nie-reglynige model vir elke tydreeks te vind. Reglynige meervoudige stapsgewyse regressie-ontleding is gebruik om die bewegings van die nywerheidsindeks rondom die langtermyntendens te voorspel. Die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore en die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling is as moontlike voorspellers gebruik. Gegrond hierop is beslissingslyne ontwik:kel wat gebruik is vir die implementering van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie. Die resultate van die studie is die volgende: • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APTfaktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 6, 41 persent en 0, 71 persent b6 die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 10,40 persent en 1,04 persent b6 die van 'n koop-enhou- strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. Die belangrikste gevolgtrekking van die studie is dat die APT en 'n tydsberekeningstrategie teoreties en prakties versoenbaar is op die JA. Aanbevelings vir toekomstige navorsing is die volgende: ( 1) sistematiese risikofaktore, anders as makro-ekonomiese faktore, behoort identifiseer te word wat die voorspellingswaarde van die faktore in die tweede tydperk van die studie kan verhoog; (2) elke stap van die model wat ontwikkel is, behoort op elke indeks van die JA toegepas te word om die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie toegepas op elkeen van die indekse met die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie te vergelyk; en (3) die invloed van transaksiekoste en dividende op die potensiele voordele van tydsberekening moet bepaal word. / The study compares the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy with that of a markettiming strategy in the framework of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) applied to the industrial index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study period is divided into two parts, namely January 1970 to September 1987 and January 1989 to June 1997. The long-term trend of the industrial index and every APT factor is determined by finding the best nonlinear model for each time series. Linear multiple stepwise regression analysis, with the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors, is used to forecast the movement of the industrial index around its long-term trend. Decision lines were developed to implement a market-timing strategy. The results of the study are as follows: • Where the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the risk-adjusted return of a markettiming strategy was 6, 41 percent and 0, 71 percent higher than that of a buyand- hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. • Where the lagged time series of the first-order difference of the long-term trend error term of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the riskadjusted return of the market-timing strategy was 10,40 percent and 1,04 percent higher than that of a buy-and-hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. The main conclusion of the study is that the APT and a market-timing strategy are theoretically and practically reconcilable on the JSE. The main recommendations of the study are the following: (1) systematic risk factors, other than macroeconomic factors, should be identified in order to increase the forecasting value of these factors in the second period of the study; (2) each step of the model developed in this study should be repeated on every index of the JSE; and (3) the influence of transaction costs and dividends on the potential benefits of a market-timing strategy should be determined. / Business Management / DCom (Sakebestuur)

Le but de cette thèse est de construire un modèle de détection des changements de phase -passages de marché haussier à baissier et vice versa - du marché des actions américaines cotées, en utilisant un nombre relativement important de variables à la fois fondamentales (macroéconomiques et microéconomiques) et issues de l’analyse technique.Le modèle statistique retenu est la régression logistique statique, avec un retard pour les variables explicatives allant de zéro à trois mois. Les huit variables les plus significatives parmi vingt candidatesont été sélectionnées à partir des données mensuelles du S&P500 sur la période 1963-2003. Le modèle obtenu a été testé sur 2004-2013 et sa performance a été supérieure à celles de la stratégie Buy & Holdet d’un modèle univarié utilisant la variable ayant le plus fort pouvoir de détection - ce dernier modèle ayant fait l’objet d’une étude dans la littérature.Il a également été montré que des variables non encore considérées dans la littérature - la moyenne mobile sur les six derniers mois des créations nettes d’emplois non-agricoles, la base monétaire et le Composite Leading Indicator de l’OCDE - ont un pouvoir de détection significatif pour notre problématique. D'autre part, la variable binaire indiquant la position du S&P500 par rapport à sa moyenne mobile des dix derniers mois - variable de type analyse technique - a un pouvoir prédictif beaucoup plus élevé que les variables fondamentales étudiées. Enfin, les deux autres variables les plus statistiquement significatives sont macroéconomiques : l'écart entre les taux à dix ans des T-bonds et à trois mois des T-bills et la moyenne mobile des créations d’emplois non-agricoles. / The goal of this thesis is to build a model capable of detecting the reversals - shift from bull market to bear market or vice versa - of the American stock market, by using a relatively large number of explanatory variables, both of fundamental (macroeconomic and microeconomic) and of ‘technical analysis’ types.The statistical model used is static logistic regression, with lags for the independent variables ranging from zero to three months. Starting with twenty variables, the eight most significant ones have been selected on a training set consisting of monthly data of the S&P500 between 1963 and 2003. There sulting model has been tested over the 2004-2013 period and its performance was better than those of a buy & hold strategy and of a univariate model based on the variable with the highest predictive power – the latter model being the focus of a paper in the current literature. Another contribution of the thesis is that some variables not yet studied in the literature – the six month moving average of net non-farm job creations, the monetary base and the OECD Composite Leading Indicator – are statistically significant for our problem. Moreover, the predictive power of the binary variable indicating whether the S&P500 is above or below its ten-month moving average – a technical analysis variable – is much higher than that of the fundamental variables which have been considered. Finally, the two other most significant variables are macroeconomic ones: the spread between the ten-year T-bond and three-month T-bill rates and the moving average of non-farm jobs creations.