Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation evaluated the age-sex structure, group size and population density of Alouatta guariba clamitans in 40 forest fragments. We also present a Population Viability Analysis for the subspecies. The study was conducted at Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), an area of 5,876 ha belonging to the Ministry of Defense (Brazilian Army) and surrounding areas, located in the municipality of Santa Maria (Rio Grande do Sul State, South Brazil). The fieldwork was conducted from March 2012 to February 2013, totaling 58 days and sampling effort of 431 hours. Our data suggest high mortality in the brown howler monkey populations at CISM. The record of low densities, low occupancy rates in fragments and small group size supports our conclusions. Statistical analyzes showed significant differences between the current population parameters and the previously registered. The PVA results suggest the fragment size and adult female survival as the best parameters contributing for the population growth. Yellow fever is an important threat, especially if the incidence of new outbreaks is high. For the long-term persistence of A. g. clamitans at CISM, the minimum viable population must be at least 573 individuals living in a minimum suitable forest area of 516 ha, which is perfectly plausible for the CISM area. In Rio Grande do Sul state there are practically no conservation units, especially in the western range of the distribution of the brown howler monkey and reinforces the important role of CISM in this scenario, although not a conservation unit. Therefore, if the metapopulation dynamics is granted, it is able to ensure regional long-term survival of A. g. clamitans, unless it suffers more intensely other impacts (such as a new yellow fever outbreak) in a near future. / A presente dissertação avaliou a abundância e densidade das populações, o tamanho e a composição sexo-etária de grupos sociais de Alouatta guariba clamitans em 40 fragmentos florestais no município de Santa Maria. Além disso, apresenta uma análise de viabilidade populacional para a subespécie. Este estudo foi conduzido no Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), uma área com 5.876 ha pertencente ao Ministério da Defesa (Exército Brasileiro) localizada no município de Santa Maria (Depressão Central do Rio Grande do Sul), e em áreas particulares do seu entorno. Foram realizadas no período de março de 2012 a fevereiro de 2013 doze campanhas de censo, totalizando 58 dias de campo com esforço amostral de 431 horas. Nossos dados sugerem que houve alta mortalidade nas populações de bugios do CISM após o último levantamento populacional, realizado em 2004. Essa conclusão é apoiada principalmente pela constatação de baixas densidades, reduzidas taxas de ocupação dos fragmentos e grupos com tamanho inferior ao encontrado anteriormente na mesma área. As análises estatísticas mostram que os parâmetros populacionais atuais diferem significativamente dos registrados anteriormente. Os resultados da AVP sugerem que o tamanho do fragmento, a sobrevivência e disponibilidade de fêmeas adultas são os parâmetros que melhor contribuem para as tendências de crescimento populacional. A febre amarela é uma ameaça importante, especialmente se a incidência de novos surtos for alta e a atual composição populacional, de acordo com o modelo, não foi capaz de se recuperar adequadamente em 100 anos. Para a persistência de A. g. clamitans no CISM a população mínima viável deve ser de pelo menos 573 indivíduos em uma área >516 ha de habitat adequado. O que é perfeitamente viável para o CISM, uma vez que o fragmento SAR possui uma área de 977,3 ha. Além disso, no Rio Grande do Sul atualmente praticamente inexistem unidades de conservação, especialmente na metade oeste da distribuição do bugio ruivo. Isso ressalta o papel importante do CISM, ainda que não se trate de uma Unidade de Conservação, logo, se assegurada, a dinâmica de metapopulação é capaz de garantir a sobrevivência regional A. g. clamitans em longo prazo, a menos que a mesma venha a sofrer mais intensamente outros impactos (ex: novo surto de febre amarela) em um futuro próximo.

The biodiversity value of a wetland is linked not only to its position in the landscape relative to other wetlands, but also to its habitat characteristics. I monitored amphibian species richness among 12 small, isolated, and undisturbed wetlands (which occur on lands permitted for phosphate mining) in central Florida during the 2005 and 2006 breeding seasons. I used seven habitat and landscape variables to characterize the environments of the wetlands and generalized linear models to determine which of these variables had the greatest influence on the occurrence of seven amphibian species (Anaxyrus terrestris, Gastrophryne carolinensis, Hyla gratiosa, Lithobates capito, L. catesbeianus, L. grylio, and Pseudacris nigrita verrucosa). Significant models for each species incorporated six of the seven habitat and landscape variables: distance to permanent water (2 spp.), distance to nearest wetland (3 spp.), vegetation heterogeneity (2 spp.), hydroperiod (2 spp.), presence/absence of fish (1 sp.), and distance to canopy cover (1 sp.). I suggest that source/sink metapopulation and patchy population dynamics in a given year are affected in part by environmental variables of ephemeral wetlands as they affect individual amphibian species. I suggest that a diversity of environmental conditions among wetlands produces the greatest amphibian biodiversity in this system, and that conservation and restoration efforts should emphasize environmental heterogeneity.

Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist ein mathematisches Modell zu entwickeln, um eine mögliche Ausbreitung des West-Nil-Virus (WNV) in Deutschland zu simulieren und zu bewerten. Das entwickelte Werkzeug soll auch auf eine weitere, durch Zecken übertragene Krankheit, dem Krim-Kongo-Hämorrhagischen Fieber (CCHFV) angewendet werden. Die durch den Klimawandel verursachte globalen Erwärmung unterstützt auch die Verbreitung und Entwicklung verschiedener Vektorpopulationen. Dabei hat eine Temperaturerhöhung einen positiven Einfluss auf den Lebenszyklus des Vektors und die Zunahme der Vektoraktivität. In dieser Arbeit haben wir ein Differentialgleichungsmodell (ODE) entwickelt, um den Einfluss eines regelmäßigen Eintrags von Infektionserregern auf die empfängliche Population unter Berücksichtigung des Temperatureinflusses zu verstehen. Als Ergebnis haben wir einen analytischen Ausdruck der Basisreproduktionszahl und deren Wechselwirkung mit der Temperatur gefunden. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse zeigt, wie wichtig das Verhältnis der anfälligen Mücken zur lokalen Wirtspopulation ist. Als ein zentrales Ergebnis haben wir den zukünftigen Temperaturverlauf auf Basis der Modellergebnisse des IPCC in unser Modell integriert und Bedingungen gefunden, unter denen es zu einer dauerhaften Etablierung des West-Nil-Virus in Deutschland kommt. Darüber hinaus haben wir die entwickelten mathematischen Modelle verwendet, um verschiedene Szenarien zu untersuchen, unter denen sich CCHFV möglicherweise in einer naiven Population etablieren kann, und wir haben verschiedene Kontrollszenarien mathematisch abgeleitet, um die Belastung von einer Infektion durch Zecken zu bewältigen. / The objective of this thesis is to develop the necessary mathematical model to assess the potential spread of West Nile Virus (WNV) in Germany and employ the developed tool to analyse another tick-borne disease Crimean- Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHFV). Given the backdrop of global warming and the climate change, increasing temperature has benefitted the vector population. The increase in the temperature has a positive influence in the life cycle of the vector and the increase in its activities. In this thesis, we have developed an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model system to understand the influence of the periodic introduction of infectious agents into the local susceptible population while taking account of influence of temperature. As results, we have found an analytic expression of the basic reproduction number and its interplay with the temperature. The sensitivity analysis shows us the importance of the ratio between the susceptible mosquitoes to the local host population. As a central result we have extrapolated the temperature trend under different IPCC conditions and found the condition under which the circulation of West Nile Virus will be permanent in Germany. Furthermore, we have utilised the developed mathematical models to examine different scenarios under which CCHFV can potentially establish in a naive population along with we mathematically derived different control scenarios to manage the burden of tick infection.

As urban areas expand, agricultural lands become increasingly important habitat for many species. Compared to some types of agricultural land-use, ranchlands provide vast expanses of minimally modified habitat that support many threatened and endangered species. Conservation biologists can promote ecologically sound management approaches by quantifying the effects of agricultural practices on resident species. I examined the effects of pasture management, cattle grazing, and landscape characteristics on both adult and larval treefrogs in a ranchland in south-central Florida. I experimentally determined optimal deployment of artificial treefrog shelters constructed of polyvinylchloride (PVC) pipe to efficiently sample adult treefrogs (Chapter 1). Seventy-two shelters were hung on oak trees (Quercus virginiana) and cabbage palm trees (Sabal palmetto) with smooth trunks or boots (residual palm fronds), at all possible combinations of three heights (2, 3, and 4 m), four compass directions (N, S, E, and W) and two water levels (with or without 10 cm). Shelter residence was completely dominated by the Squirrel Treefrog, Hyla squirella (N = 65). Significantly fewer H. squirella were found in shelters on palms with boots than on smooth palms or oak trees (0.29 ± 0.21 [mean ± 1 SE hereinafter] versus 1.3 ± 0.21 and 1.1 ± 0.21, respectively), and shelters with water had slightly more H. squirella than those without (1.5 ± 0.19 versus 0.88 ± 0.19, respectively). Orientation and height did not affect the number of treefrogs encountered; thus, the optimal protocol is to deploy shelters on either smooth palms or oak trees, with water, at 2 m height for easy sampling, and in random compass orientations. I used this protocol to sample H. squirella in woodlots surrounding twelve wetlands and examined how time, frog stage and sex, and landscape features influenced treefrog survival, recapture and site fidelity (Chapter 2). I deployed 15 shelters/ha of woodlot within a 100 m buffer around each wetland. I sampled shelters three times during the fall breeding season, removed all shelters to force frogs to overwinter in natural refugia, and replaced shelters for the final spring sampling. During sampling periods, I sexed, measured, and individually marked each frog using visual implant elastomer (VIE) tags. I used Program MARK to build linear models that included either gender group (female, male or juvenile) or life history stage (adult, juvenile) and either time (sampling interval 1, 2, or 3) or season (fall, spring). I used the most informative model as a null model to assess effects of landscape covariates on survival and recapture. Females had higher survival than either males or juveniles, for which estimates were similar (0.867 vs 0.741 and 0.783, respectively). Survival did not vary over time, although there was some support for an effect of season, with lower survival during the final over-wintering period than in the fall intervals (relative variable importance: group = 0.730; stage = 0.134; time = 0.200; season = 0.310). Adults had higher recapture rates than juveniles (average recapture 0.214 vs 0.102), and recapture for both stages varied over time, with highest recapture in sampling interval two (relative variable importance: group = 0.262; stage = 0.514; time = 0.513; season = 0.229). Hyla squirella was extremely site loyal; no individuals moved between sampling sites, and 95% of recaptured individuals were in their original shelter. Strong terrestrial site fidelity calls into question the traditional "ponds as patches" metapopulation view of treefrog population dynamics. Area of woodlot within 250 m was the most important landscape variable in explaining additional variation in both survival and recapture. Frogs had higher survival and lower recapture in larger woodlots, indicating that intact, contiguous woodlots are higher quality habitat than more fragmented woodlots. Neither survival nor recapture varied with wetland grazing treatments or between pasture types. Finally, I experimentally assessed the effects of cattle grazing and pasture management on larval H. squirella. I selected four wetlands: two in semi-natural pastures (SN) and two in intensively managed pastures (IM). One wetland in each pasture type was fenced so that it was released from cattle grazing (R). I collected three clutches of H. squirella eggs (Clutches A, B, and C) and reared tadpoles in the laboratory until Gosner stage 25. In each wetland, I deployed a total of 50 tadpoles from each clutch into 105 L pens constructed of plastic laundry baskets and mesh window screening. Clutch significantly affected tadpole survival, with Clutch A having the highest percent survival, followed by Clutch B and finally Clutch C (41.66, 32.11 - 53.95 [mean, 95% confidence limits hereinafter]; 9.00, 6.76 - 11.88; 2.89, 2.02 - 4.01, respectively). Wetland type also affected survival, with SN wetlands supporting significantly higher survival than IM wetlands (SN-R: 53.95, 32.88 - 88.13; SN-G: 18.95, 11.30 - 31.36 vs IM-R: 7.32, 4.13 - 12.49; IM-G: 1.09, 0.29 - 2.39). Genetic variation in survival confirms the potential for H. squirella to adapt to rangeland management, but extremely low survival of some clutches indicates that few clutches may be able to survive in low quality wetlands, such as IM-G wetlands. Higher survival in SN pasture wetlands suggest this is a superior habitat and future management objectives should conserve semi-natural pastures and limit further modification of intensively managed pastures, including removing woodlots near wetlands.

Stream fishes are highly diverse, yet highly imperiled by human alterations of stream environments. Many species are poorly characterized with regard to the size and structure of populations and patterns of dispersal between populations, which complicates assessment of how human activities, both harmful and beneficial, will affect persistence. I used genetic tools to further this understanding in three case-study fish species of the southeastern United States: Roanoke logperch (Percina rex) of the greater Roanoke River basin and redline (Etheostoma rufilineatum) and greenside darters (E. blennioides) of the upper Tennessee River basin. I found that endangered P. rex persists in seven isolated populations. Within populations, individuals exhibit extensive dispersal and gene flow, which maintains connectivity throughout entire watersheds. Most populations exhibit small contemporary effective population sizes and occupy few stream channels, and thereby face an elevated risk of extinction. Genetic estimates of divergence indicate that fragmentation was recent, coincident with the construction of major dams throughout the species' range. Close evolutionary relationships between most populations suggest that a translocation strategy could decrease extinction risks. I developed a framework to help guide the process of balancing small-population versus translocation risks when formulating conservation strategies. When the framework was applied to populations of P. rex, straightforward management prescriptions emerged. The framework also may prove useful for other fragmented species. Unlike P. rex, E. rufilineatum and E. blennioides are relatively abundant where they occur. However, both species were strongly affected by fragmentation due to hydroelectric dams and reservoirs. Populations in small streams flowing directly into a reservoir had lower genetic diversity than populations in larger, more fluvially connected streams. Furthermore, indices of watershed urbanization (e.g., percent impervious surface, road density) were negatively correlated with genetic diversity and with a genetic index of population stability. This suggests that darters occupying isolated streams and/or urbanizing watersheds experience smaller, more variable population sizes than darters elsewhere. Monitoring of such genetic responses could provide a useful early indicator of ecosystem stress and a useful complement to other biomonitoring techniques. / Ph. D.

Les écosystèmes sub-Antarctiques sont particulièrement vulnérables aux perturbations environnementales et notamment aux invasions biologiques. L'introduction du Chat (Felis silvestris catus) sur la Grande Terre de l'archipel des Kerguelen a eu des effets désastreux sur les communautés d'oiseaux marins. Ce prédateur doit sa survie dans cet environnement à la présence d'une proie introduite, le Lapin (Oryctolagus cuniculus), qui constitue sa ressource principale pendant l'hiver lorsque les oiseaux marins sont repartis en mer. L'éradication du chat n'apparaît pas être une solution réaliste compte tenu de la taille de l'île (6675 km2) et son inaccessibilité. De plus elle serait susceptible de conduire à des résultats non souhaités comme par exemple une explosion démographique des populations de lapins. La mise en place d'une politique de gestion adaptée nécessite d'améliorer notre connaissance des facteurs qui conditionnent la dynamique spatio-temporelle des populations de chats. Au cours de cette thèse, j'ai cherché à identi_er les mécanismes des interactions entre le chat, le lapin et la végétation, car elles sont attendues conditionner celles existantes entre le chat et les oiseaux marins. J'ai analysé la dynamique spatio-temporelle de quatre populations de chats sur la Grande Terre et j'ai en particulier recherché si des conditions environnementales spatialement corrélées (effet Moran) pouvaient, en se propageant dans la chaine alimentaire, synchroniser les variations temporelles d'abondance des populations de chats. Enfin, j'ai étudié l'impact des variations spatio-temporelles d'abondance des populations de chats sur les variations spatio-temporelles de la structure génétique des populations de chats. / Sub-Antarctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to environmental perturbations including biological invasions. The introduction of the feral cat (Felis silvestris catus) on the Grande TerreIsland of the Kerguelen archipelago has lead to detrimental effects on seabird's communities. Cat survival in this environment is possible because of the presence of the introduced rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), which constitute the main prey of the cat during winter when most seabirds are offshore. Cat eradication is not a realistic solution given the size and inaccessibility of the island (6675 km2). Moreover it can lead to unwanted results such as the demographic explosion of rabbit populations. The design of appropriate management policy needs to improve our understanding of the factors that influence the spatio-temporal dynamics of cat populations. In this thesis, I explored the mechanisms of cat-rabbit-vegetation interactions, as they are expected to determine interactions existing between cats and seabirds. I analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamics of four cat populations on Grande Terre Island and I especially sought whether environmental conditions spatially correlated (Moran effect) could synchronize cat through their effect on the trophic web pathways. Finally, I studied the impact of spatio-temporal

To assess the status of a rare plant species, we must first understand the factors that affect the size of populations and their numbers. In this thesis, I study processes affecting plant species prosperity on local scale (paper 1), factors influencing species distribution in landscape and ability of species to colonize new habitats (paper 2) and species traits responsible for gene flow between established populations (paper 3). Since I work with rare plants, I also aim to turn theoretical knowledge into practical recommendations for nature conservation (paper 4) to help effectively preserve rare and endangered species. In the first 3 papers, I work with two rare fern species restricted to serpentine rocks, Asplenium adulterinum and A. cuneifolium, in a study system covering 10 × 10 km. I found that both species are long living (several decades) and in the study region, populations are in a good state and slowly growing. Even very small populations (10 individuals) have quite high chance to survive. In both fern species, I found dispersal limitation, which might be surprising regarding huge production of small spores in ferns (paper 2). The species differ in ploidy and thus, also mating system. A. adulterinum is tetraploid and its main breeding system is intragametophytic selfing. A. cuneifolium is...

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-04T18:50:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao.pdf: 667521 bytes, checksum: bb065dd72ee7f7268f022ef94b81d208 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-03-12 / Uma metapopulação pode ser definida como uma população regional de populações locais geograficamente distintas, interconectadas por migração. Dentro deste contexto, modelos de dinâmica metapopulacional espacialmente implícitos descrevem a taxa de variação da proporção de manchas ocupadas por uma ou mais espécies por meio de um balanço entre os processos de colonização de manchas vazias e extinção de manchas ocupadas. O modelo metapopulacional de Levins prevê que mesmo na presença de habitat adequado, uma espécie pode se extinguir regionalmente, de forma determinística, se a intensidade de extinção for maior do que a intensidade de colonização. Além disso, este modelo sugere a existência de uma quantidade limiar de habitat remanescente, abaixo do qual a extinção regional determinística da espécie ocorre. Características importantes da dinâmica espacial, tais quais, efeito Allee, efeito resgate, colonização externa, qualidade da matriz, efeito anti-resgate e heterogeneidade de manchas podem ser incluídas em variantes do modelo de Levins. Uma outra extensão natural desses modelos é o agrupamento das manchas com relação ao seu estado de ocupação em modelos de metapopulações de espécies interativas, dando origem aos modelos de metacomunidades. Estudos de dinâmica de metacomunidades permitem a análise das relações entre a diversidade de espécies e a heterogeneidade ambiental no nível da paisagem, bem como as implicações de interações diretas e indiretas para a estrutura de comunidades.

La connectivité marine est le transfert de larves et/ou d'individus entre des habitats marins éloignés. Grâce à la connectivité, les populations marines éloignées peuvent faire face à la pression de l'habitat en s'appuyant sur le transfert qui vient des populations éloignées de la même espèce. Le transfert entre les populations éloignées dans l'océan est possible par le transport dû aux courants. Cependant, il est pas encore clair si le champ des courants détermine totalement la persistance des espèces marines ou si la démographie locale joue un rôle. Les mesures in situ de la connectivité sont extrêmement difficiles. Par conséquence, notre connaissance de la connectivité est déduite des simulations numériques de dispersion. Le but de cette thèse est de préciser si la persistance de la connaissance du champ des courants et d’étudier l'effet des paramétrisations numériques dans l'estimation de la connectivité. Premièrement, je compare la théorie des graphes et le modèle de métapopulation pour déterminer si les courants ont un rôle prédominant. Cela permet d'identifier quelles mesures de la théories des graphes identifient de manière fiable les sites reproductifs importants pour la persistance en s'appuyant sur la connaissance des seuls courants. Deuxièmement, j’étudie les avantages et les lacunes de différents schémas de fermeture de turbulence. Ceci permet de préciser quel schéma reproduit mieux l'activité de turbulence dans des modèles numériques. Troisièmement, j'étudie les mécanismes générateurs de turbulence aux limites du fond. Ceci permet de connaître le coefficient de traînée effectif dû aux flux sur la topographie brute et de mieux estimer les flux turbulents. / Marine connectivity is the transfer of larvae and/or individuals between distant marine habitats. Thanks to connectivity, distant marine population can face habitat pressure by relying on the transfer from distant populations of the same species. The transfer between distant populations in the ocean is made possible by the transport due to the currents. However, it is still not clear if the current field totally determines the persistence of the marine species or if the local demography plays a role. Crucially, in situ measurements of connectivity are extremely difficult. Therefore, our knowledge about connectivity is inferred from numerical dispersal simulations. The aim of this thesis is to clarify if we can deduce the persistence from the knowledge of the current field and to investigate the effect of numerical turbulence parameterizations in estimating connectivity. Firstly, I compare graph theory and metapopulation model to determine if currents have a predominant role. This allows to identify which graph theory measures reliably identifies reproductive sites important for persistence by relying on the knowledge of currents only. Secondly, I investigate the advantages and shortcomings of different turbulence closure models. This allows to clarify which TCS better reproduces turbulence activity in numerical models. Thirdly, I investigate generating mechanisms of bottom boundary turbulence. This allows to know the effective drag coefficient due to flow over rough topography and better estimate turbulent fluxes.

Conservation managers worldwide are increasingly faced with the challenges of managing and protecting fragmented landscapes, largely as a consequence of human activities. Over recent decades, ecological theory has made a significant contribution to the development of landscape-scale conservation and practice. However, recommendations accounting for what is practically achievable in the modern-day landscape are currently lacking, while criteria for conservation planning and prioritisation continue to neglect the role of habitat networks at the required spatial scale for the long-term persistence of biodiversity. In this thesis, I test and apply ideas surrounding the complexities of managing and conserving species in a landscape context, using a suite of bird species endemic to papyrus (Cyperus papyrus) swamps in East and Central Africa as a model system. In the face of large-scale habitat loss and degradation, practical measures that account for the fragmented nature of this system, the needs of multiple specialist species, and the reliance on this habitat by local people, are urgently required. I first review the concepts originating from reserve design theory to provide a decision-making framework for those involved in landscape-scale conservation amid 21st century challenges to biodiversity, highlighting the key principles to be considered for informed choices to be made. Second, I show that the needs of local people can be compatible with conservation planning in the tropics, and may play an important part in maintaining habitat quality for species residing in historically disturbed landscapes. Third, I develop a novel framework to make an explicit link between metapopulation dynamics and conservation planning. Despite differences in the patch-level dynamics of individual species, areas of habitat where populations of multiple species are resistant to extinction, and resilient because of high chances of (re)colonization can be identified, highlighting where resources could be invested to ensure species have the capacity to respond to future change. Finally, I simulate the metapopulation dynamics of the papyrus-endemic birds to demonstrate that the optimal conservation strategy for the long-term persistence of all species residing in a network depends on the characteristics of individual species, and the total area that can be protected. Overall, this thesis develops and tests the ecological theory used in spatial conservation planning, emphasising the importance of habitat disturbance and interspecific ecological differences for the effective management of habitat networks. The results increase the evidence base for the conservation of wetland birds in Africa, as well as for species residing in fragmented landscapes more generally.