Submitted by Joana Azevedo (joanad@id.uff.br) on 2017-08-22T16:59:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Kelly Frizero Neto.pdf: 2639388 bytes, checksum: a86cdfb4d8bd960fe371f034705cc18a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Biblioteca da Escola de Engenharia (bee@ndc.uff.br) on 2017-09-04T15:15:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Kelly Frizero Neto.pdf: 2639388 bytes, checksum: a86cdfb4d8bd960fe371f034705cc18a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-04T15:15:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Kelly Frizero Neto.pdf: 2639388 bytes, checksum: a86cdfb4d8bd960fe371f034705cc18a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-22 / Diante da diversidade de critérios de decisão e do leque de ativos disponíveis nas bolsas de valores, os investidores se deparam com o problema central do estudo: Como priorizar os critérios de decisão diante do cenário complexo, dinâmico e de difícil previsão que engloba a compra e venda de ações? O trabalho realizou uma revisão estruturada da literatura e mapeou os principais fatores que interferem na escolha dos investidores qualificados e especialistas do mercado financeiro através de uma modelagem voltada para a identificação do grau de relevância atribuída aos critérios de decisão nas negociações dos ativos. Questionários direcionados aos especialistas e aos investidores foram aplicados para captar a percepção quanto à importância e a utilização dos critérios de decisão. Devido à extensa variedade de fatores que simultaneamente afetam as escolhas dos investidores, elegeu-se a metodologia de apoio multicritério à decisão para a estruturação do trabalho, com a utilização da soma ponderada para ordenar os critérios mais empregados. A conclusão apresenta a análise dos principais critérios de decisão apontados pelos profissionais do mercado, fornecendo assim uma ferramenta atual para facilitar a compreensão dos fatores que influenciam o fluxo de decisões das operações com ações. Outra contribuição alcançada foi a interface de um trabalho acadêmico (apoiado em conceitos e teorias), com a acelerada dinâmica do mercado financeiro (em meio a avalanches de informações diárias que mudam o cenário econômico a todo momento). / Given the diversity of decision criteria and the large range of available assets on the stock market investors face the main issue in this study: Which decision criteria should be prioritized on the complex, dynamic and hard to forecast scenario that embraces the buying and selling of shares? The work mapped the main factors that interfere in the selection of qualified investors and specialists in the financial market, through a model focused on a degree of relevance attributed to the decision criteria in the asset negotiations. Questionnaires were directed to experts and researchers to capture a perception about the relevance and use of decision criteria. Due to the extensive range of factors that simultaneously affect the investors’ choices, a multicriteria methodology was chosen for structuring the work, using the weighted sum to map the decision criteria used. In the conclusion, it is presented an analysis of the main decision criteria pointed out by the professionals of the financial market thereby providing a current tool that will contribute to the understanding of the factors that affect the flow of equity transactions. Another contribution will be the academic work interface with the accelerated dynamic in which investors and financial experts meet: lots of daily information that changes the economic scenario all the time

The aim of this thesis is to analyze a management problem in the organization Bohemians 1905, a.s. and submit recommendations to the board of the club for strategic choice options how to solve the management problem. The correct formulation of the problem will need to be analyze the current situation, put it in a strategic context and find the cause of the problem. This is done by Kepner-Tregoe methodology, C-E diagram and cognitive map. It will also need to develop objective solutions, design criteria, specify the possible solutions and determine the consequences of various options due to the proposed set of criteria. This is done by the value tree, a combination of multi-criteria evaluation under risk and certainty, probability trees and decision matrices. As a form of multi-criteria evaluation will be used in a specific form of the transfer bridge in the form of aggregated criteria of price/performance ratio of the options that allows create a list of preferred options.

Guarulhos, o segundo município paulista em população, tem tentado aumentar sua importância no Estado e no país também nos aspectos sócio-econômicos. Como parte das necessidades inerentes a essa mudança de patamar, por sua alta taxa de crescimento, e devido à crônica e histórica deficiência no planejamento da cidade, nos últimos anos vários planos diretores setoriais foram lançados, todos relacionados direta ou indiretamente aos recursos hídricos. Ora por questões orçamentárias, ora por conveniência administrativa, foram executados separadamente o plano diretor de desenvolvimento do município apenas com diretrizes -, e os planos diretores de abastecimento de água, de esgoto sanitário e de drenagem, além do novo plano de abastecimento de água e esgotamento sanitário, este atendendo à Lei 11.445/2007. O plano diretor de resíduos sólidos encontra-se em elaboração. A fragmentação desses planos diretores, apesar de justificada em função das condições em que surgiram e pelas demandas que visavam a atender, pode não ser a mais adequada do ponto de vista dos conceitos mais modernos de gestão da água urbana. Assim, após uma análise crítica desses planos, é avaliada a proposta de elaboração de um Plano Integrado de Águas Urbanas pelo município. Como sugestão de ferramenta de apoio à decisão, é apresentado o emprego de metodologia de análise multicritério para hierarquização de ações, especificamente obras de saneamento de grande porte previstas nos planos diretores de Guarulhos ou em seus desenvolvimentos, buscando também catalisar as interações entre gestores de diferentes setores. / Guarulhos, the second most populous city in the São Paulo State, has tried to increase its importance in that State and in the country also in socioeconomic factors. As part of the needs associated with that step change, for its high growth rate, and due to chronic and historical lack of city planning, in recent years several sectoral master plans have been launched, all directly or indirectly related to water resources. Sometimes by budget issues, or by administrative convenience, these plans were executed separately from the master plan of the city - this, with only guidelines - and the master plans for water supply, waste water, drainage, and the new plan of water and waste water (required by the federal law 11.445/2007). The master plan for solid waste is under preparation. The fragmentation of these master plans, though justified in light of conditions in which they emerged and by the demands aimed at answering, is not adequate from the standpoint of modern concepts of management of water resources. So, after a review of these plans, is assessed the proposed development of an Integrated Urban Water Master Plan by the city. As a suggestion of a decision support tool, is presented the use of multicriteria analysis methodology for prioritization of actions, specifically huge works of sanitation contained in these master plans or in its developments, also seeking to promote interactions between managers from different sectors.

A seleção de fornecedores tem impacto significante no custo e na qualidade de produtos manufaturados. Por isso, a seleção de fornecedores passou a ser vista como uma atividade bastante crítica para o desempenho da empresa compradora. Muitos estudos da literatura propõem o uso dos métodos multicritério fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) e fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) para apoiar a seleção de fornecedores. Contudo, não são encontrados estudos que avaliem o desempenho destes métodos quando usados neste domínio de problema. Diante desta lacuna, este estudo compara os métodos fuzzy TOPSIS (CHEN, 2000) e fuzzy AHP (CHANG, 1996) no apoio à seleção de fornecedores. Esta pesquisa utiliza uma abordagem quantitativa descritiva empírica, baseada em modelagem e simulação. Os métodos fuzzy TOPSIS e fuzzy AHP foram aplicados em um caso ilustrativo de seleção de fornecedores. O desempenho dos fornecedores e o peso dos critérios foram avaliados por um especialista de uma empresa. Modelos de simulação foram implementados usando MATLAB® e aplicados na seleção de fornecedores de uma empresa de uma cadeia de suprimentos automotiva. Cinco fornecedores foram avaliados em relação à qualidade, custo, entrega, perfil e relacionamento. O peso dos critérios e o desempenho dos fornecedores foi avaliado por meio da opinião de um especialista da empresa. Posteriormente, os métodos fuzzy TOPSIS e fuzzy AHP foram comparados em relação à capacidade de apoiar a decisão em grupo, qualificação de fornecedores, escolha final de fornecedores, situações de compra e modelagem de decisões sob incerteza. A eficiência dos métodos em relação à complexidade computacional e à interação requerida com o usuário também foi comparada. Os resultados mostraram que o fuzzy TOPSIS é mais flexível e mais adequado que o fuzzy AHP para modelar diferentes tipos de cenários de seleção de fornecedores. A realização desta discussão é sugerida por Ertugrul e Karakasoglu (2008), e é relevante para ajudar pesquisadores e gestores na escolha de abordagens efetivas para lidar com diferentes cenários de seleção de fornecedores. / Supplier selection has a significant influence on the cost, quality and delivery of products of the buying company. Therefore, supplier selection has become a very critical activity to the performance of the buying company. Several studies presented in the literature propose the use of fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to aid the decision process of supplier selection. However, there are no comparative studies of these two methods when applied to the problem of supplier selection. Thus, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the methods fuzzy TOPSIS (Chen, 2000) and fuzzy AHP (Chang, 1996) applied to the problem of supplier selection. A descriptive quantitative approach was adopted as the research method. Algorithms of the methods fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy AHP were developed in Matlab© and applied to the selection of suppliers of a company in the automotive production chain. Five suppliers were evaluated regarding quality of conformance, cost, delivery, profile and relationship. The weight of the criteria and the performance of the suppliers were evaluated by specialist opinion from the studied company. The methods Fuzzy TOPSIS e Fuzzy AHP were compared in terms of ability to support the group decision, supplier qualification, final choice of suppliers, buying situations and modeling decisions under uncertainty. The efficiency of the methods with respect to computational complexity and the required user interaction was also compared. The comparative analysis shows that Fuzzy TOPSIS presents better than Fuzzy AHP performance, especially in scenarios in wich many alternatives are evaluated. Thus, Fuzzy TOPSIS is more flexible and appropriate than Fuzzy AHP to deal with supplier selection problem. This paper presents a new study, comparing the methods Fuzzy TOPSIS and Fuzzy AHP. As commented by Ertugrul and Karakasoglu (2008), a study such as this can contribute to the advance of knowledge, helping researchers and practitioners choosing more effective approaches to supplier selection.

Desenvolver programas de conservação, a partir do conhecimento prévio do estado dos pavimentos, possibilita obter determinados níveis de qualidade em toda a rede viária. No entanto, num cenário de carência financeira, manter esses níveis de qualidade só é possível se as decisões forem tomadas considerando as seções mais prioritárias às atividades de manutenção e reabilitação (M&R) dos pavimentos. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é propor um modelo de priorização de vias, baseado na metodologia de análise multicritério agregada a um sistema de informação geográfica (SIG), considerando critérios objetivos e subjetivos no apoio à tomada de decisão. Fez parte deste trabalho uma pesquisa sobre a situação atual referente aos procedimentos de gerência da conservação de pavimentos utilizados em cidades médias brasileiras. Foi realizado um estudo de caso, na cidade de São Carlos - SP, utilizando um levantamento preliminar da condição do pavimento e de suas características físicas e geométricas, no que se refere às seções de vias urbanas, que são de responsabilidade da prefeitura. O modelo desenvolvido neste trabalho, que utiliza AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) e SIG, é adequado à realidade das cidades médias brasileiras, mas mantém a viabilidade de aplicação em cidades de outras dimensões, desde que as particularidades dessas cidades sejam consideradas. É destinado a auxiliar administradores de órgãos governamentais que têm a função de avaliar e planejar as intervenções de conservação em vias urbanas pavimentadas. / The development of conservation programs, starting from the previous knowledge of pavements condition, makes possible to maintain certain quality levels in the roadway system. However, in a lack of budget scenario, to achieve those quality levels the decisions have to be taken considering a pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) prioritization program. The general objective of this work is to propose urban roadways prioritization model based on multicriteria decision analysis aggregated to geographical information system (GIS), considering objective and subjective criteria in the decision support. A case study was performed at the city of São Carlos, state of São Paulo, Brazil, using a preliminary study of pavement condition and physical and geometric characteristics. It was also performed a research about the current situation regarding the procedures for pavement maintenance and rehabilitation management in brazilian medium-sized cities. The model developed in this work, that uses AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and GIS is adapted to the reality of the brazilian medium-sized cities, but it maintains the application viability in cities of other dimensions, since the particularities of those cities are considered. It is dedicated to help administrators of government agency responsible for the evaluation of urban roads and pavement conservation planning.

<p>Сложеност процеса доношења одлука у водопривреди лежи у чињеници да су проблеми који се решавају често слабо структурирани, због чега је неопходно њихово учвршћивање хеуристичким техникама до нивоа када се проблем може решити применом математичких модела вишекритеријумске оптимизације и анализе.<br />Групно доношење одлука у водопривреди није новост у свету, али коначнаг одређења методологије у овој области још увек нема. Постојање конфликата између различитих страна, заинтересованих за проблематику водопривреде, између врста коришћења вода, као и самих корисника вода указује на сложеност проблемтике. Сложеност увећава постојање великог броја алтернатива, које треба вредновати према великом броју критеријума.<br />Методологија избора учесника у доношењу одлука у водопривреди и одређивања њихових међусобних значаја, који је предложена у дисертацији, заснована је на коришћењу техника стратегијског менаџмента, прогностичких метода, гласачких метода, метода вишекритеријумске анализе и оптимизације и ГИС технологијама.<br />Досадашњи систем управљања водним ресурсима у Србији има слабости јер није у довољној мери заснован на корисничким захтевима, а свака промена захтева обично доводи до дуготрајне процедуре за измену статуса корисника, или измену квалитативних и квантитативних захтева у односу на водне ресурсе.<br />Развијени партиципативни модел, који подрзумева дефинисање конзистентног поступка за избор учесника у процесу управљања сливом, као и одређивање њихових међусобних односа и значаја, у садашњим условима и условима пуне изграђености Регионалног хидросистема демонстриран је на примеру слива реке Криваје.<br />Слив Криваје одабран је због вишеструке сложености водопривредне проблематике, јер је вишенаменски, вишекориснички, са поделама надлежности, како локалних самоуправа, тако и водопривредне делатности. Такође, Криваја је прекогранични водоток, што проблематику усложњава и у међудржавном, ресурсном, економском и политичком смислу. Методологија приказана у дисертацији примењива је и на друге сливове, &#39;оптерећене&#39; вишенаманским, вишекорисничким конфликтима, као и конфликтима надлежности.<br />Основна карактеристика модела је конзистентна структуираност, модул консензусног одлучивања у конфликтним и хазардним условима и употреба савремених математичко-компјутерских метода и модела и информационих технологија који, поред осталог, синергијски указују на доминантне учеснике у процесу одлучивања.</p> / <p>Složenost procesa donošenja odluka u vodoprivredi leži u činjenici da su problemi koji se rešavaju često slabo strukturirani, zbog čega je neophodno njihovo učvršćivanje heurističkim tehnikama do nivoa kada se problem može rešiti primenom matematičkih modela višekriterijumske optimizacije i analize.<br />Grupno donošenje odluka u vodoprivredi nije novost u svetu, ali konačnag određenja metodologije u ovoj oblasti još uvek nema. Postojanje konflikata između različitih strana, zainteresovanih za problematiku vodoprivrede, između vrsta korišćenja voda, kao i samih korisnika voda ukazuje na složenost problemtike. Složenost uvećava postojanje velikog broja alternativa, koje treba vrednovati prema velikom broju kriterijuma.<br />Metodologija izbora učesnika u donošenju odluka u vodoprivredi i određivanja njihovih međusobnih značaja, koji je predložena u disertaciji, zasnovana je na korišćenju tehnika strategijskog menadžmenta, prognostičkih metoda, glasačkih metoda, metoda višekriterijumske analize i optimizacije i GIS tehnologijama.<br />Dosadašnji sistem upravljanja vodnim resursima u Srbiji ima slabosti jer nije u dovoljnoj meri zasnovan na korisničkim zahtevima, a svaka promena zahteva obično dovodi do dugotrajne procedure za izmenu statusa korisnika, ili izmenu kvalitativnih i kvantitativnih zahteva u odnosu na vodne resurse.<br />Razvijeni participativni model, koji podrzumeva definisanje konzistentnog postupka za izbor učesnika u procesu upravljanja slivom, kao i određivanje njihovih međusobnih odnosa i značaja, u sadašnjim uslovima i uslovima pune izgrađenosti Regionalnog hidrosistema demonstriran je na primeru sliva reke Krivaje.<br />Sliv Krivaje odabran je zbog višestruke složenosti vodoprivredne problematike, jer je višenamenski, višekorisnički, sa podelama nadležnosti, kako lokalnih samouprava, tako i vodoprivredne delatnosti. Takođe, Krivaja je prekogranični vodotok, što problematiku usložnjava i u međudržavnom, resursnom, ekonomskom i političkom smislu. Metodologija prikazana u disertaciji primenjiva je i na druge slivove, &#39;opterećene&#39; višenamanskim, višekorisničkim konfliktima, kao i konfliktima nadležnosti.<br />Osnovna karakteristika modela je konzistentna struktuiranost, modul konsenzusnog odlučivanja u konfliktnim i hazardnim uslovima i upotreba savremenih matematičko-kompjuterskih metoda i modela i informacionih tehnologija koji, pored ostalog, sinergijski ukazuju na dominantne učesnike u procesu odlučivanja.</p> / <p>The complexity of the decision-making process in water management lies in the fact that problems, to be solved, are often poorly structured, making it necessary to strenghten them by heuristic techniques to the level where problem can be solved by using mathematical models of multi-criteria optimization and analysis.<br />Group decision-making in water management is not unknown, but the final determination of methodology in this area is still missing.<br />The existence of conflicts between the various parties interested in the issue of water management, between a type of water use and water users themselves, indicates the complexity of the problems. The complexity increases the presence of a large number of alternatives that must be evaluated against a number of criteria.<br />The methodology of selection of participants in decision-making in water management and determining their mutual importance; importance of each one among the others; importance of each of them among the group; importance of each of participants, which is presented in the dissertation, is based on the use of techniques of strategic management, forecasting methods, the voting methods, multi-criteria analysis and optimization, and GIS technologies.<br />The current system of water resources management in Serbia has a weakness because it is not sufficiently based on user requirements, and any requirement&rsquo;s change usually leads to time-consuming procedures for changing the status of users, or alteration of qualitative and quantitative requirements in relation to water resources.<br />Developed participatory model, which implies defining a consistent procedure for the selection of participants in the river basin management, as well as determining their relationships and importance in current terms and conditions of the full construction of the Regional hydro system, has been demonstrated on the example of the basin of the Krivaja river.<br />Confluence Krivaja has been chosen because of multiple complexities of water management issues, its multipurpose, multi-user, the division of responsibilities among local self-governments, as well as water management work. Also, Krivaja is cross-border watercourse, which complicates the issue in the interstate, resource, economic and political sense. The methodology presented in the dissertation is also applicable to other basins &#39;loaded&#39; by multipurpose and multi-user conflicts, as well as conflicts of jurisdiction.<br />The basic characteristic of the model is consistent structure, the module of consensual decision-making in conflict and hazardous conditions, and the use of modern mathematical-computerized methods and models, as well as information technologies which, among other things, the synergistic indicate the dominant participants in the decision-making process.</p>

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-06-14T15:45:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Herzer_.pdf: 1397260 bytes, checksum: a9941bd0932b535c5699cf0b35a815dc (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-14T15:45:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Herzer_.pdf: 1397260 bytes, checksum: a9941bd0932b535c5699cf0b35a815dc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo propor um método de monitoramento para gestão de portfólio, o qual, através de um sistema multi-critério e de um modelo econométrico, identifica variações no cenário econômico e em indicadores da empresa sendo então, a partir do monitoramento de resíduos, possível definir o momento exato para alteração de portfólio de produtos. A Gestão de Portfólio de produtos vem atraindo interesse dos gestores das corporações e deste modo, é difícil encontrar alguma organização que não possua uma carteira de produtos e projetos para gerenciar. A Gestão de Portfólio trata das decisões de alocação de recursos e de como ficará a carteira dos produtos atuais, sendo uma ferramenta de extrema importância para o resultado, principalmente financeiro, das organizações. Encontram-se vários métodos na literatura para realizar a Gestão do Portfólio, dentre os quais modelos financeiros, modelos probabilísticos financeiros, modelos de escores e checklists, abordagens de hierarquia analítica, abordagens comportamentais e abordagens de mapas ou diagrama de bolhas são os mais relevantes. Mesmo existindo diversos métodos na literatura para realizar a gestão do portfólio, não há consenso sobre qual método deve ser utilizado em cada etapa específica. Esses métodos também necessitam de intervenção dos gestores, levando em consideração que geralmente as informações disponíveis para tomada de decisão não são completas ou exatas. Para este estudo, foi realizado um estudo de simulação Monte Carlo para avaliar a sensibilidade dos diversos elementos que compõem o método. Os resultados mostraram taxas de alarmes falsos e tempo médio para detectar a mudança semelhantes a estudos anteriores. Esse processo de gestão e tomada de decisão é considerado complexo para os gestores das empresas, uma vez que o portfólio necessita ser periodicamente revisado, buscando sempre maximização de valor e equilíbrio ideal de produtos no mercado. Por fim, a aplicação do modelo é ilustrada por um caso real, utilizando dados fornecidos por uma empresa multinacional do segmento agrícola. / Product Portfolio Management is attracting the interest of the managers of the corporations. With the competitiveness of the market, it is difficult to find an organization that does not have a portfolio of products to manage. The Portfolio Management deals with resource allocation decisions and how will the portfolio of current products be compouse, being an extremely important tool for the result, especially financial, for the organizations. This process of management and decision making is considered complex to company managers, since the portfolio needs to be periodically revised, always seeking to maximize value and correct balance of products on the market. There are several methods in the literature to perform portfolio management, among which financial models, financial probabilistic models, scores and checklists models, analytical hierarchy of approaches, behavioral approaches and approaches map or diagram bubbles are the most relevant. While there are several methods in the literature to make the portfolio management, there is no consensus about which method should be used in each specific step. These methods also require the intervention of managers, taking into account that generally available information for decision-making are not complete or accurate. This paper aims to propose a method, which, through a multi-criteria system containing an econometric model, identifies changes in the economic environment and business indicators and then, from the profile monitoring, can set the exacly time for change portfolio of products. We performed the Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the sensitivity of the various parts that make up the method. The results showed false alarm rate and mean time to detect changes similar to previous studies. Finally, the application of the model is illustrated by a real case using data provided by a multinational company, agricultural segment.

Un des fondements de l’Ingénierie Système réside dans la compréhension et la formulation des exigences de différentes parties prenantes pour mieux maîtriser et contrôler la complexité du système à concevoir. L’évaluation des performances du système nécessite par ailleurs la prise en compte des expertises interdisciplinaires qui peuvent être incertaines, voire incomplètes. La prise en compte des interdépendances entre plusieurs domaines d’activité dans la conception et le déploiement d’un système de mobilité urbaine durable est un bon exemple, qui reflète la problématique de l’élicitation des connaissances pluridisciplinaires, puis de leur utilisation dans la définition d’une architecture distribuée. Le renouveau de la mobilité urbaine a en effet fait émerger des alternatives aux déplacements habituels, faisant place à la mobilité douce, à l’usage raisonnée des véhicules personnels, à la multimodalité et à l’inter-mobilité. Dans ce contexte, la convergence tend à s’opérer vers des plateformes numériques offrant des services variés, à la demande, adaptés aux besoins immédiats des usagers. Ces services sont généralement développés par des acteurs du secteur privé qui détiennent à la fois l’expertise et la technologie pour les déployer. Il s’agit donc, pour les pouvoirs publics considérés comme organe de contrôle et de régulation de la mobilité, de définir quelles infrastructures et quels services offrir et selon quelles modalités. Le travail de recherche effectué dans cette thèse vise à proposer puis valider, une démarche générale pour accompagner les décideurs des villes dans la conception et la mise en place des solutions de mobilité du futur. Un cadre méthodologique prenant en compte l’aide au choix de politiques et de partenaires cibles a pour cela été proposé, basé sur une méthode d’analyse multicritère, dans un cadre de décision collective et sous incertitude. Un méta-modèle d’un système de mobilité durable a ensuite été élaboré, à partir des connaissances élicitées d’un ensemble de standards et référentiels, de même qu’une architecture distribuée du système. Afin d’étudier la faisabilité de l’implémentation de cette architecture, en considérant le point de vue de l’aide à la décision, une roadmap de mise en œuvre a enfin été proposée, basée sur un système de recommandations visant à optimiser la réalisation de projets de mobilité nouveaux / One basics of System Engineering consists in understanding and formalizing the requirements ofdifferent stakeholders in order to better control and handle the complexity of the system to bedesigned. The evaluation of the system's performance also requires taking into accountinterdisciplinary expertise, which may be uncertain or ill-known. The consideration ofinterdependencies among several fields of activity in the design and deployment of a sustainableurban mobility system is a good example, which reflects the issue of the elicitation ofmultidisciplinary knowledge, then its use in the definition of a distributed architecture. The renewalof urban mobility has indeed given rise to alternatives to the usual forms of travel, leading to softmobility, rational use of personal vehicles, multi-modality and inter-mobility. In such a context,convergence is tending towards digital platforms offering various services, on demand adapted tothe immediate needs of end-users. These services are usually developed by private companieswho have both the expertise and the technology to deploy them. It is therefore a matter for thepublic authorities, considered as a regulating and controlling organism of the urban mobility, todefine which infrastructures and which services to offer and under which conditions. The presentresearch work aims at proposing and validating a general method to assist city decision-makers inthe design and implementation of mobility solutions for the future. A methodological frameworktaking into account a support in the choice of targeted policies and partners was proposed for thispurpose, based on a multi-criteria analysis method, within a group decision-making framework andunder uncertainty. A meta-model of a sustainable mobility system was then elaborated, based onthe knowledge elicited from a set of standards, as well as a distributed architecture of the system.In order to study the feasibility of implementing this architecture, from a decision support point ofview, a deployment roadmap was finally proposed, based on a system of recommendationsaiming at optimizing the implementation of new mobility projects.

The surveillance of geographic borders and critical infrastructures using limited sensor capability has always been a challenging task in many homeland security applications. While geographic borders may be very long and may go through isolated areas, critical assets may be large and numerous and may be located in highly populated areas. As a result, it is virtually impossible to secure each and every mile of border around the country, and each and every critical infrastructure inside the country. Most often, a compromise must be made between the percentage of border or critical asset covered by surveillance systems and the induced cost. Although threats to homeland security can be conceived to take place in many forms, those regarding illegal penetration of the air, land, and maritime domains under the cover of day-to-day activities have been identified to be of particular interest. For instance, the proliferation of drug smuggling, illegal immigration, international organized crime, resource exploitation, and more recently, modern piracy, require the strengthening of land border and maritime awareness and increasingly complex and challenging national security environments. The complexity and challenges associated to the above mission and to the protection of the homeland may explain why a methodology enabling the design and optimization of distributed detection systems architectures, able to provide accurate scanning of the air, land, and maritime domains, in a specific geographic and climatic environment, is a capital concern for the defense and protection community. This thesis proposes a methodology aimed at addressing the aforementioned gaps and challenges. The methodology particularly reformulates the problem in clear terms so as to facilitate the subsequent modeling and simulation of potential operational scenarios. The needs and challenges involved in the proposed study are investigated and a detailed description of a multidisciplinary strategy for the design and optimization of detection architectures in terms of detection performance and cost is provided. This implies the creation of a framework for the modeling and simulation of notional scenarios, as well as the development of improved methods for accurate optimization of detection architectures. More precisely, the present thesis describes a new approach to determining detection architectures able to provide effective coverage of a given geographical environment at a minimum cost, by optimizing the appropriate number, types, and locations of surveillance and detection systems. The objective of the optimization is twofold. First, given the topography of the terrain under study, several promising locations are determined for each sensor system based on the percentage of terrain it is covering. Second, architectures of sensor systems able to effectively cover large percentages of the terrain at minimal costs are determined by optimizing the number, types and locations of each detection system in the architecture. To do so, a modified Genetic Algorithm and a modified Particle Swarm Optimization are investigated and their ability to provide consistent results is compared. Ultimately, the modified Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is used to obtain a Pareto frontier of detection architectures able to satisfy varying customer preferences on coverage performance and related cost.

This thesis aims to predict the probable undiscovered geothermal systems through investigation of spatial relation between geothermal occurrences and its surrounding geological phenomenon in Western Anatolia. In this context, four different public data, which are epicenter map, lineament map, Bouger gravity anomaly and magnetic anomaly maps, are utilized. In order to extract the necessary information for each map layer the raw public data is converted to a synthetic data which are directly used in the analysis. Synthetic data employed during the investigation process include Gutenberg-Richter b-value map, distance to lineaments map and distance to major grabens present in the area. Thus, these three layers including directly used magnetic anomaly maps are combined by means of Boolean logic model and Weights of Evidence method (WofE), which are multicriteria decision methods, in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment. Boolean logic model is based on the simple logic of Boolean operators, while the WofE model depends on the Bayesian probability. Both of the methods use binary maps for their analysis. Thus, the binary map classification is the key point of the analysis. In this study three different binary map classification techniques are applied and thus three output maps were obtained for each of the method. The all resultant maps are evaluated within and among the methods by means of success indices. The findings reveal that the WofE method is better predictor than the Boolean logic model and that the third binarization approach, which is named as optimization procedure in this study, is the best estimator of binary classes due to obtained success indices. Finally, three output maps of each method are combined and the favorable areas in terms of geothermal potential are produced. According to the final maps the potential sites appear to be Aydin, Denizli and Manisa, of which first two have been greatly explored and exploited since today and thus not surprisingly found as potential in the output maps, while Manisa when compared to first two is nearly virgin.