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No description available.

Ce travail se propose d’examiner les conséquences du décès parental précoce sur la trajectoire biographique des enfants, dans un régime de mortalité où la principale perturbation n’est pas le VIH/SIDA, mais une grave crise socio-politique. Le Burundi est l’un des épicentres du conflit traversé dans les années 90 par la région des Grands Lacs. A l’aide des données de l’Enquête Socio-Démographique et de Santé de la Reproduction (ESDSR) menée au Burundi en 2002, nous analysons l’impact du décès parental précoce sur un grand nombre de dimensions du parcours de vie des enfants burundais: mortalité, violence et exploitation sexuelle, séparation des membres de la fratrie, scolarité, entrée précoce dans le travail, ressources, conditions de l’héritage, entrée dans la vie reproductive et familiale. Ces analyses sont menées selon l’âge de l’enfant au moment du décès d’au moins un de ses parents, tout en cherchant à évaluer l’effet de la cause de décès des parents (crise/autre cause) sur les résultats obtenus. On montre que la perturbation du parcours de vie des enfants ayant précocement vécu le décès de leur père est mineure. A l’inverse l’expérience précoce de la mère ou du dernier parent survivant affecte la plupart des dimensions de la trajectoire biographique des enfants. La crise burundaise amplifie et, dans certains cas, transforme voire renverse la relation entre l’expérience précoce du décès d’au moins un parent et la trajectoire des enfants. L’orphelin à cause des massacres de masse de 1993 est un orphelin « politique » dont la protection et le soutien par les instances politiques, militaires, administratives et humanitaires est devenu un enjeu de la crise elle-même. / The aim of this paper is to analyze lifetime effects of parental death during childhood, in a country context where HIV/AIDS isn’t the main cause of death among young adults but deaths caused by a major socio-political crisis. During the 90’s, Burundi hosted the cradle of the regional conflict in the Great Lakes. A 2002 demographic, social and reproductive health survey in Burundi (ESDSR) will provide us the information required to analyze impact of early parental death, on a complex panel of life perspectives for children: mortality, violence and sexual abuse, separation of siblings, schooling, working at early age, resources, heritage, early marriage and age at first birth. These analyses are led by child age at early parental death, along with an attempt to estimate the effect from the cause of this death (crisis or other) on results. The strength of leading conclusions is consolidated by the mean of exchanging results, these results being derived from several analysis methods: bivariate and multivariate logistic models adapted or not to clustered data (standard, multilevel, marginal and fixed-effects logistic regressions).We bring lights on the minor effect of early father loss on child life trajectory. On the contrary, early mother or last living parent death experience affects almost every child life trajectory. Burundi crisis emphases but in some cases, reverses those effects from negative to positive. 1993 mass slaughters orphans are “political” orphans. Their political, military, administrative and humanitarian protections became part of the main goals, in the crisis itself.

Os modelos mistos são apropriados na análise de dados longitudinais, agrupados e hierárquicos, permitindo descrever e comparar os perfis médios de respostas, levando em conta a variabilidade e a correlação entre as unidades experimentais de um mesmo grupo e entre os valores observados na mesma unidade experimental ao longo do tempo, assim como a heterogeneidade das variâncias. Esses modelos possibilitam a análise de dados desbalanceados, incompletos ou irregulares com relação ao tempo. Neste trabalho, buscou-se mostrar a flexibilidade dos modelos lineares mistos e a sua importância na análise de dados toxicológicos longitudinais. Os modelos lineares mistos foram utilizados para analisar os efeitos de dose no ganho de peso de ratos adultos machos e fêmeas, em teste de toxicidade por doses repetidas e também os efeitos de fase de gestação e dose nos perfis de pesos de filhotes de ratas tratadas. Foram comparados os modelos lineares mistos de regressão polinomial de grau 3, spline e de regressão por partes, ambos com um único ponto de mudança na idade média de abertura dos olhos dos filhotes, buscando o mais apropriado para descrever o crescimento dos mesmos ao longo do período de amamentação. São apresentados os códigos escritos no SAS/STAT para a análise exploratória dos dados, ajuste, comparação e validação dos modelos. Espera-se que o detalhamento da teoria e das aplicações apresentado contribua para a compreensão, interesse e uso desta metodologia por estatísticos e pesquisadores da área. / Mixed models are appropriate in the analysis of longitudinal, grouped and hierarchical data, allowing describe and compare the average response profiles, taking into account the variability and correlation among the experimental units of the same group and among the values observed over the time in the same experimental unit, as well as the heterogeneity of variances. These models allow the analysis of unbalanced, incomplete or irregular data with respect to time. This work aimed to show the flexibility of linear mixed models and its importance in the analysis of longitudinal toxicological data. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effects of doses in the body weight gain of adult male and female Wistar rats, in repeated doses toxicity test and also the effects of pregnancy period and dose in the pups growth of treated dams. It were compared the linear mixed models of third degree polynomial regression, spline and piecewise regression, both with a single point of change in the average time of pups eyes opening, searching for the most appropriate one to describe their growth along the lactation period. The SAS/STAT codes used for exploratory data analysis, comparison and validation of fitted models are presented. It is expected that the detailing of the theory and of the applications presented contribute with the understanding, interest and use of this methodology by statisticians and researchers in the area.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-02T21:43:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sandro Moretti_Dissertacao Quem e Quem no Grande ABC.pdf: 1022991 bytes, checksum: 5ab376cac829b5ca1ddc66efa1e389a5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-02 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This study investigates empirically the performance of companies in the Grande ABC region increasingly industrialized and economically representative for the country. The seven cities that represent the region, Santo André, São Bernardo do Campo, São Caetano do Sul, Diadema, Mauá, Ribeirão Pires and Rio Grande da Serra, have in recent years economic growth considerably above the country's growth and development has stimulated the growth of the country. The empirical analysis uses panel data and examines the performance of firms in the seven cities that make up the Grande ABC during the years 2001 to 2008 using the multilevel methodology and three performance measures: ROA, ROE and OROA. The multilevel approach allowed the identification of key factors that are associated or not to performance of these companies and these effects are the year, the company itself, the sub sector, the sector and the city that the company is located. Among the tree performance measures used there was significant convergence, in addition the study identified that there is a significant effect on corporate performance associated with the year and the company itself, and show that the sectors, subsectors and the city that the company is do not have a significant effect associated with these firm performance. / Essa pesquisa investiga empiricamente o desempenho das empresas do Grande ABC, região industrializada e cada vez mais representativa economicamente para o país. As sete cidades que representam a região, Santo André, São Bernardo do Campo, São Caetano do Sul, Diadema, Mauá, Ribeirão Pires e Rio Grande da Serra, tiverem nos últimos anos um crescimento econômico consideravelmente acima do crescimento do país e seu desenvolvimento tem impulsionado o crescimento do país. A análise empírica utiliza dados em painel e investiga o desempenho das firmas das sete cidades que compõe o Grande ABC durante os anos de 2001 a 2008 utilizando a metodologia multinível e três medidas de desempenho: ROA, OROA e ROE. A metodologia multinível possibilitou a identificação dos principais efeitos que estão associados ou não ao desempenho das empresas, entre esses efeitos estão o ano, a própria empresa, o subsetor, o setor e a cidade que a empresa se localiza. Entre as três medidas de desempenho utilizadas houve significativa convergência e, além disso, o estudo identificou que há um significativo efeito no desempenho das empresas associado ao ano e à própria empresa, além de mostrar que os setores, os subsetores e a cidade que a empresa se localiza não apresentam um efeito significativo associado ao desempenho dessas firmas.

Os modelos mistos são apropriados na análise de dados longitudinais, agrupados e hierárquicos, permitindo descrever e comparar os perfis médios de respostas, levando em conta a variabilidade e a correlação entre as unidades experimentais de um mesmo grupo e entre os valores observados na mesma unidade experimental ao longo do tempo, assim como a heterogeneidade das variâncias. Esses modelos possibilitam a análise de dados desbalanceados, incompletos ou irregulares com relação ao tempo. Neste trabalho, buscou-se mostrar a flexibilidade dos modelos lineares mistos e a sua importância na análise de dados toxicológicos longitudinais. Os modelos lineares mistos foram utilizados para analisar os efeitos de dose no ganho de peso de ratos adultos machos e fêmeas, em teste de toxicidade por doses repetidas e também os efeitos de fase de gestação e dose nos perfis de pesos de filhotes de ratas tratadas. Foram comparados os modelos lineares mistos de regressão polinomial de grau 3, spline e de regressão por partes, ambos com um único ponto de mudança na idade média de abertura dos olhos dos filhotes, buscando o mais apropriado para descrever o crescimento dos mesmos ao longo do período de amamentação. São apresentados os códigos escritos no SAS/STAT para a análise exploratória dos dados, ajuste, comparação e validação dos modelos. Espera-se que o detalhamento da teoria e das aplicações apresentado contribua para a compreensão, interesse e uso desta metodologia por estatísticos e pesquisadores da área. / Mixed models are appropriate in the analysis of longitudinal, grouped and hierarchical data, allowing describe and compare the average response profiles, taking into account the variability and correlation among the experimental units of the same group and among the values observed over the time in the same experimental unit, as well as the heterogeneity of variances. These models allow the analysis of unbalanced, incomplete or irregular data with respect to time. This work aimed to show the flexibility of linear mixed models and its importance in the analysis of longitudinal toxicological data. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effects of doses in the body weight gain of adult male and female Wistar rats, in repeated doses toxicity test and also the effects of pregnancy period and dose in the pups growth of treated dams. It were compared the linear mixed models of third degree polynomial regression, spline and piecewise regression, both with a single point of change in the average time of pups eyes opening, searching for the most appropriate one to describe their growth along the lactation period. The SAS/STAT codes used for exploratory data analysis, comparison and validation of fitted models are presented. It is expected that the detailing of the theory and of the applications presented contribute with the understanding, interest and use of this methodology by statisticians and researchers in the area.

研究の目的 : 多変量解析とGISを用いて、乳幼児を対象とする日本の予防接種率の地域差の実態を把握し、その要因を検討する。研究の背景 : 公衆衛生上の課題である予防接種率の地域差の特定と改善を目的として、多様な地域スケールからその要因を分析する研究が行われている。しかしながら、日本における既往研究では個人を対象とした研究が多く、接種率の地域差の検討や関連要因を用いた生態学的研究もほとんど行われてこなかった。研究手法 : 日本の1737の市区町村における7種類19回の予防接種を対象として、重回帰分析と市区町村―都道府県間の階層を用いたマルチレベル分析を行った。被説明変数には推計した2013年から2018年までの予防接種率を、説明変数には9つの個人要因と4つの環境要因を用いた。これらの変数の作成には国勢調査などの政府統計を用いた。予防接種率の分布図と予測モデルの残差プロットを用いて、地理的な関連要因を探索した。結果 : 一人当たり課税所得と乳幼児健診受診率は市区町村レベルで、世帯の児童数は都道府県レベルで全般的に有意な関連を示した。その他の変数は予防接種の種類や接種時期(回数)によって関連の有無が異なった。接種率は西日本で低く、大都市圏で高い傾向がみられた。残差は内陸部と接種率の偏差が大きい地域に多く見られた。考察 : 市区町村の所得格差と都道府県の世帯あたり児童数の差が、地域の接種率の格差に関連すると示唆された。また、人口減少と高齢化が進む小規模地域には接種率に関連する固有の因子が存在する可能性がある。結論 : 接種率の向上には、その地域の社会経済的状況や人口構造、地域の文脈、予防接種の種類、それらの要因の影響するスケールを踏まえた施策が求められる。 / Objective: Examining geographical variation and the factors of infant immunization coverage in Japan. Background: Incomplete vaccination coverage is one of the largest public health threats. Many interdisciplinary studies have investigated factors that might increase immunization rates or cause Vaccine Hesitancy. However, most studies in Japan have focused on individuals and few studies have considered regional disparities of vaccination coverage. Methods: We conducted a multiple regression analysis and a multilevel analysis (municipality-prefecture hierarchy) for 19 vaccinations in 1737 municipalities in Japan, during 2013-2018. The dependent variable was the estimated vaccination rate, and nine individual factors and four environmental factors were used as explanatory variables. Data were collected from publicly available sources. We used distribution maps of vaccination rates and residuals of the predictive models to explore geographical factors. Results: In general, per capita taxable income and infant health checkup rate showed generally significant positive associations at the municipal level, and the number of children in the household negative association at the prefectural level. Other factors showed various associations depending on the type and the timing of vaccines. Vaccination rates were likely to be lower in western Japan and higher in metropolitan areas. Residuals were found mostly in inland areas and areas with large deviations in vaccination rates. Discussion: These results suggested that vaccination rates were associated with regional differences in municipal income inequality and in the number of children per household in prefectures. Smaller villages with declining and aging populations might have unique factors. Conclusions: To increase vaccination coverage among infants, it requires to consider the effect size at various spatial scales, in addition to compositional and contextual effects as the socioeconomic status, demographic structure, the local contexts, and the type of vaccination. / 京都大学 / 修士 / 修士(文学) / Kyoto University / TFtmp

No description available.

Saskatchewan is the only province in Canada to have routinely tested the antimicrobial susceptibility of all provincially reported human cases of campylobacteriosis. From 1999 to 2006, 1378 human Campylobacter species infections were tested for susceptibility at the Saskatchewan Disease Control Laboratory using the Canadian Integrated Program for Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance panel and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) breakpoints. Of these, 1200 were C. jejuni, 129 were C. coli, with the remaining made up of C. lari, C. laridis, C. upsaliensis and undifferentiated Campylobacter species. Campylobacter coli had significantly higher prevalences of ciprofloxacin resistance (CIPr), erythromycin resistance (ERYr), combined CIPr-ERYr resistance and multidrug resistance (to three or greater drug classes) than C. jejuni. Logistic regression models indicated that CIPr in C. jejuni decreased from 1999 to 2004 and subsequently increased in 2005 and 2006. The risk of CIPr was significantly increased in the winter months (January to March) compared to other seasons. A comparison of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard survival models found that the latter were better able to detect significant temporal trends in CIPr and tetracycline resistance by directly modeling MICs, but that these trends were more difficult to interpret. Scan statistics detected significant spatial clusters of CIPr C. jejuni infections in urban centers (Saskatoon and Regina) and temporal clusters in the winter months; the space-time permutation model did not detect any space-time clusters. Bernoulli scan tests were computationally the fastest for cluster detection, compared to ordinal MIC and multinomial antibiogram models. eBURST analysis of antibiogram patterns showed a marked distinction between case and non-case isolates from the scan statistic clusters. Multilevel logistic regression models detected significant individual and regional contextual risk factors for infection with CIPr C. jejuni. Patients infected in the winter, that were between the ages of 40-45 years of age, that lived in urban regions and that lived in regions of moderately high poultry density had higher risks of a resistant infection. These results advance the epidemiologic knowledge of CIPr C. jejuni in Saskatchewan and provide novel analytical methods for antimicrobial resistance surveillance data in Canada. / Saskatchewan Disease Control Laboratory (Saskatchewan Ministry of Health); Laboratory for Foodborne Zoonoses (Public Health Agency of Canada); Centre for Foodborne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (Public Health Agency of Canada); Ontario Veterinary College Blake Graham Fellowship