This diploma thesis deals with the natural disasters, which struck the Czech Republic in the last decades, and with the analysis of the commercial insurance products covering the natural risks. The first part is dedicated to general characteristics of natural events, analysis of the natural disasters in the Czech Republic, and to characteristics of products, which offer protection from natural danger. The next part analyses the products of property insurance for Czech citizens by Czech Insurance Company and ČSOB insurance company. The conclusion of the thesis compares their products from the point of view of insurable risks and the height of yearly insurance premium.

Orientador: José Augusto de Lollo / Banca: Leandro Eugenio Silva da Cerri / Banca: Wilson Manzoli Júnior / Resumo: O colapso de solos é um fenômeno típico de solos altamente porosos quando saturados, induzindo recalques significativos em fundações de obras civis, comprometendo total ou parcialmente estas obras. Tal fenômeno é bastante comum nos solos arenosos que ocorrem em boa parcela do Estado de São Paulo e em particular na cidade de Ilha Solteira. A grande disseminação de processos de colapso de solos em todo o Estado faz com que seu estudo seja imprescindível para o entendimento das variáveis que os condicionam e dos fatores que os desencadeiam. A proposta deste trabalho foi caracterizar o processo de colapso de solos na área urbana de Ilha Solteira, em termos de sua ocorrência, condicionantes, mecanismos e conseqüências, com o objetivo de avaliar e representar cartograficamente o risco de ocorrência deste processo. Os estudos mostraram que na área estudada a associação do comportamento natural do solo com problemas em obras de infra-estrutura urbana (redes de água e esgoto) induz uma situação de alta suscetibilidade de ocorrência de colapso de solos, o que pode ser notado pela disseminação de ocorrências por toda a área. A avaliação do risco de colapso de solos permitiu classificá-lo em alto, médio e baixo grau. As informações obtidas na avaliação de risco fundamentam a elaboração de medidas para eliminar ou reduzir os riscos instalados e ainda para evitar a instalação de novas áreas de risco. O resultado final foi a elaboração de uma carta de cadastramento de risco de colapso de solos e, a partir desta, a elaboração de uma carta de zoneamento de risco, constituindo-se em importantes ferramentas para projetos e obras de ocupação, além de fornecerem subsídios para elaboração de planos de seguro de edificações. A metodologia utilizada para avaliação e representação de risco de colapso de solos poderá ser aplicada em estudos nos bairros mais... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo). / Abstract: Soil collapse is a characteristic process in porous soils when saturated and produce large settlements in civil engineering foundations. This process is very common in typical fine sand soils present in State of São Paulo large areas, thus Ilha Solteira region. Due this process has affected large areas of São Paulo State the study of soils with collapsible behavior is very important to understand variables that cause or are responsible for the process. This work proposed to characterize the process of soil collapse (events, causes, mechanisms, consequences) in the Ilha Solteira urban area, purposing to evaluate and to present the risk of soil collapse on a chart. Studies showed that in the Ilha Solteira city the association of natural behavior of soil with problems in urban infrastructure works (water and sewage pipes) characterize a situation of high susceptibility of soil collapse, which can be observed by dissemination of occurrences by total area. The evaluation of soil collapse risk permitted to classify it in high, medium and small degree. Information gained in this risk evaluation is important for take the necessary steps for reduce, eliminate or avoid the problem of soil collapse. The final result was the representation of the soil collapse risk on cadastre and zoning charts, which constitute on important tool for adopting construction guidelines, besides to provide subsidies for elaboration of edifications insurance. Respecting locals specifications, the methodology utilized for evaluation and representation of risk of soil collapse can be applied in studies in other areas with similar problems. / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:29:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2002-06-27Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:58:48Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 oliveira_cmg_me_ilha.pdf: 7081146 bytes, checksum: ed75c1649780a952f48111b948b26147 (MD5) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / O colapso de solos é um fenômeno típico de solos altamente porosos quando saturados, induzindo recalques significativos em fundações de obras civis, comprometendo total ou parcialmente estas obras. Tal fenômeno é bastante comum nos solos arenosos que ocorrem em boa parcela do Estado de São Paulo e em particular na cidade de Ilha Solteira. A grande disseminação de processos de colapso de solos em todo o Estado faz com que seu estudo seja imprescindível para o entendimento das variáveis que os condicionam e dos fatores que os desencadeiam. A proposta deste trabalho foi caracterizar o processo de colapso de solos na área urbana de Ilha Solteira, em termos de sua ocorrência, condicionantes, mecanismos e conseqüências, com o objetivo de avaliar e representar cartograficamente o risco de ocorrência deste processo. Os estudos mostraram que na área estudada a associação do comportamento natural do solo com problemas em obras de infra-estrutura urbana (redes de água e esgoto) induz uma situação de alta suscetibilidade de ocorrência de colapso de solos, o que pode ser notado pela disseminação de ocorrências por toda a área. A avaliação do risco de colapso de solos permitiu classificá-lo em alto, médio e baixo grau. As informações obtidas na avaliação de risco fundamentam a elaboração de medidas para eliminar ou reduzir os riscos instalados e ainda para evitar a instalação de novas áreas de risco. O resultado final foi a elaboração de uma carta de cadastramento de risco de colapso de solos e, a partir desta, a elaboração de uma carta de zoneamento de risco, constituindo-se em importantes ferramentas para projetos e obras de ocupação, além de fornecerem subsídios para elaboração de planos de seguro de edificações. A metodologia utilizada para avaliação e representação de risco de colapso de solos poderá ser aplicada em estudos nos bairros mais... . / Soil collapse is a characteristic process in porous soils when saturated and produce large settlements in civil engineering foundations. This process is very common in typical fine sand soils present in State of São Paulo large areas, thus Ilha Solteira region. Due this process has affected large areas of São Paulo State the study of soils with collapsible behavior is very important to understand variables that cause or are responsible for the process. This work proposed to characterize the process of soil collapse (events, causes, mechanisms, consequences) in the Ilha Solteira urban area, purposing to evaluate and to present the risk of soil collapse on a chart. Studies showed that in the Ilha Solteira city the association of natural behavior of soil with problems in urban infrastructure works (water and sewage pipes) characterize a situation of high susceptibility of soil collapse, which can be observed by dissemination of occurrences by total area. The evaluation of soil collapse risk permitted to classify it in high, medium and small degree. Information gained in this risk evaluation is important for take the necessary steps for reduce, eliminate or avoid the problem of soil collapse. The final result was the representation of the soil collapse risk on cadastre and zoning charts, which constitute on important tool for adopting construction guidelines, besides to provide subsidies for elaboration of edifications insurance. Respecting locals specifications, the methodology utilized for evaluation and representation of risk of soil collapse can be applied in studies in other areas with similar problems.

L’élaboration des Plans de Prévention des Risques Littoraux (PPRL) « prioritaires », définis suite à la tempête Xynthia de 2010, a provoqué des débats, souvent conflictuels, entre l’Etat et les collectivités territoriales au sujet des cartes d’aléas submersion marine ou recul du trait de côte. Cette recherche doctorale s’attache à la compréhension du processus de construction de ces cartes. Elle analyse les facteurs influençant cette cartographie à partir de ce que représentent les cartes d’aléas pour chaque acteur. Les résultats de cette recherche mettent en évidence que les études d’aléas sont peu issues des connaissances territoriales et abordées sous un angle expert complexe. Les acteurs locaux s’approprient ainsi difficilement les nouvelles connaissances sur les aléas littoraux. La forte présence des aspects techniques et la mécanique d’élaboration du zonage réglementaire conduisent à une cristallisation des débats des PPRL sur la cartographie des aléas. Ces débats cachent aussi souvent des conceptions distinctes de la politique de prévention et des intérêts divergents entre acteurs agissant à échelles spatiales et temporelles différentes. L’ouverture restreinte des discussions par l’Etat lors de la cartographie des aléas de référence et de l’élaboration du zonage conduit à une faible territorialisation des PPRL et rend difficile leur intégration au sein des politiques locales de prévention des risques littoraux et d’aménagement du territoire. Cette thèse révèle ainsi l’importance cruciale de la concertation et d’une entrée par le territoire, pour mettre en place une appropriation active des connaissances sur les aléas et favoriser l’intégration du PPRL au sein de l’action publique territoriale. / The development of Coastal risks prevention plans, identified as priorities after Xynthia storm in 2010, has revealed divisive debates, between the state services and territorial authorities, about coastal flooding or coastline recession mapping. This PhD research deals with the understanding of coastal hazards mapping. It analyses the factors which influence this process based on what do the maps represent for each stakeholder.The research results highlight that hazards studies sparsely come from territorial knowledge and are often approached from a complex expert angle. Thus, new knowledge is hardly managed by local stakeholders. Significant debates about technical aspects and the process of regulatory zoning conception lead to the fact that hazards mapping crystallizes the PPRL debates. Actually, these debates often hide different conceptions of prevention policy and opposing interests of stakeholders acting at different spatial and temporal scales. The few opened discussions purposed by state services during reference hazards mapping and zoning conception lead to a low territorialization of the PPRL and make their integration in local policies of coastal risks prevention and of land use planning difficult.Thus, this PhD highlights the crucial role of dialogue and of an input by the territory, in order to start an active appropriation of hazards knowledge and to enable the PPRL integration within the territorial public policy.

Cette thèse a été conduite dans le cadre d’une convention industrielle avec SNCF Réseau. Elle se situe dans le domaine de la géovisualisation d’informations spatio-temporelles, et porte plus particulièrement sur l’élaboration de méthodes de visualisation cartographiques adaptées à l’analyse des impacts des inondations sur le système ferroviaire. Les événements historiques sont une source d’informations importante pour la compréhension et la gestion des risques naturels. La cartographie s’est imposée comme un outil clé pour appréhender les risques dans leurs contextes territoriaux. Mais l’élaboration de visualisations cartographiques qui soient lisibles tout en restituant la complexité des processus survenus lors d’une catastrophe naturelle n’est pas aisée. Les verrous principaux sont la nécessité de représenter à la fois les dimensions spatiales et temporelles des événements issus de risques, le besoin de visualiser les effets dominos, qui conduisent à amplifier les dommages, et la volonté d’adapter les représentations aux besoins et aux capacités cognitives des utilisateurs. Ce travail a conduit à quatre contributions. La première contribution a consisté à formaliser les récits d’inondations dans une ontologie de domaine, qui décrit à la fois les événements issus d’inondations, les effets dominos et leurs impacts sur le système ferroviaire et les mesures de réaction pour ramener le système ferroviaire à l’état d’équilibre. Cinq cas d’inondations historiques ont été instanciés dans le modèle. Leur étude a permis de formuler des principes sémiologiques génériques pour cartographier les récits d’inondations, ce qui constitue la deuxième contribution. La troisième contribution est la production d’une interface de géovisualisation intégrant des représentations graphiques innovantes pour visualiser les temporalités associées aux événements. Cette interface de géovisualisation a fait l’objet d’une expérimentation auprès des experts ferroviaires. Les résultats ont validé les propositions relatives à la représentation du temps mais ont infirmé les propositions de visualisation des effets dominos. Suite à l’analyse des résultats, la quatrième contribution consiste en un modèle de protocole expérimental réutilisable, adapté au test d’interfaces de géovisualisation. / This research was led in an industrial partnership with SNCF Réseau. In the field of geovisualization of spatio-temporal information, it focuses on developing cartographical visualization methods adapted to the analysis of the impacts of floods on the railway system.Historical events are of great help to understand and manage natural risks. Cartography became a key tool to analyze risks in their territorial contexts. But making maps which remain legible while showing all the complexity of risk processes that occurred during natural disaster is not easy. The main challenges are the need to represent both the temporal and the spatial dimensions of risk events, the need to visualize domino-effect, because they often lead to worsen damages, and the will to adapt representations to the cognitive capacities of users.This research resulted in four contributions. The first one is the formalization of flood narratives in a domain ontology, which describes flood events, domino-effects, their impacts on the railway system and also response measures to restore the system. Five case studies of historical floods were instantiated in the model. Resulting from their study, the second contribution consists in generic semiology principles to visualize the narratives of floods on maps. The third contribution is a geovisualization interface, which includes original graphical representations to visualize the temporal features associated with flood events. This geovisualization interface was tested in an experiment with expert users of the railway field. Results confirmed the proposals of representation of time but disconfirm proposals of visualization of domino effects. The analysis of results led to the fourth contribution, which consists in a reusable model of an experimental procedure that is adapted to test geovisualization interfaces.

La gestion du foncier martiniquais est un sujet complexe, sensible et à forte densité politique. La superficie de la Martinique est de 1 100km2, soit l’une des plus petites régions françaises, avec la plus forte densité de population, soumise à de multirisques (cyclonique, sismique, volcanique, technologique, inondation, pollution de l’air, des sols et de l’eau, tsunami…).La triangulation urbanistique composée d’une multiplicité d’acteurs, de textes et de réglementations et d’un millefeuille institutionnel (6 niveaux d’administration : commune, intercommunalité, département, région, Etat, Europe) annihile toute responsabilité et obère un développement endogène de ce micro territoire.Un juste équilibre entre développement économique, social, culturel et environnemental doit être trouvé en conciliant les objectifs économiques et sociaux liés au développement insulaire.La remarquable biodiversité de la Martinique constitue un atout touristique indéniable, menacé par de fortes pressions anthropiques foncières.Cette recherche démontre la pertinence de la réglementation applicable au foncier à la Martinique et l’influence du développement durable sur cette réglementation. La thèse propose des solutions pérennes à mettre en œuvre pour pallier les incohérences juridiques révélées par l’étude. / Management of land in Martinique is a complex, sensitive and highly political topic.The total area of the island is 1 100 km2 (square meters), e.g, one of the smallest French areas, with the highest concentration of population, submitted to multirisk desasters (cyclonic, seismic, volcanic, technological, flood, air, ground and water pollutions, tsunami…).The urban triangulation made up of a multiplicity of actors, texts and regulations, as well as a multi-level institutional cream cake (6 levels of administration: the city, the intercity, the Department, the Regional Council, the State and Europe), destroys all kind of responsibility and obstruct an endogenous development of this micro territory.A fair balance between economic, social, cultural and environmental development is necessary, by reconciling with the economic and social goals related to the insular development.The astonishing biodiversity of the island of Martinique represents an obvious tourist asset, threatened by strong land anthropic pressures.This research study highlights the relevance of the regulation applicable to the land in Martinique as well as the influence of sustainable development on this regulation. This thesis suggests perennial solutions to implement, in order to mitigate the legal inconsistencies pointed out by the study.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-27T18:15:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Elenice da Fonseca Uzan.pdf: 8040737 bytes, checksum: 22dd0302918bbc8a92235fe3ceff5bd8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-13 / Secretaria da Educação do Estado de São Paulo / This dissertation analysed the specific forms of expansion in the urban-residential area of Guarulhos, especially the low income groups, living in areas of natural hazards in blends of Recreio São Jorge and Novo Recreio São Jorge. The new territories created, the determinant factors, the main structural agents these modifications and, especially, making a link with these dynamics in a general process of reproduction of capitalism and the society. In this perspective, the social inequalities are resulting of the materialization spatial of the city, so we can affirm that the urban space it does not reproduce without conflicts and contradictions, structurally linked to the capitalist logic and reproduction of a society divided in different classes, where increasingly, the land valorization in some areas, combined with the real estate strategies, limits the possibilities for use of space for social segments of low income. In this way, the changes in current patterns of residential groups with low purchasing power, involve changes in the intra-urban spatial organization of Guarulhos, creating new needs and new spatial arrangements, related with the process of building the current socioeconomic dynamics of the county and the adoption of political public that interfere directly in the different forms of occupation of the space and permeate it / A presente dissertação buscou analisar as formas específicas da expansão do espaço urbano-residencial de Guarulhos, especialmente dos grupos de menor renda, vivendo em áreas de riscos naturais nos loteamentos de Recreio São Jorge e Novo Recreio São Jorge, as novas territorialidades criadas, os fatores determinantes, os principais agentes estruturadores dessas modificações e, principalmente, relacionar tais dinâmicas a um processo mais geral de reprodução do capitalismo e da própria sociedade. Nessa perspectiva, as desigualdades sociais resultam da materialização espacial da cidade, portanto, pode-se afirmar que o espaço urbano não se reproduz sem conflitos e contradições, ligado estruturalmente à própria lógica capitalista e à reprodução de uma sociedade dividida em classes, onde, cada vez mais, a valorização do solo em certas áreas, aliada às estratégias imobiliárias, limita as possibilidades de uso do espaço pelos segmentos sociais de menor renda. Nesse sentido, as mudanças nos atuais padrões residenciais dos grupos de menor poder aquisitivo implicam transformações na organização espacial intra-urbana de Guarulhos, criando novas necessidades e novos arranjos espaciais, relacionados ao processo de construção da atual dinâmica socioeconômica do município e à adoção de políticas públicas que interferem diretamente nas distintas formas de ocupação de seu espaço e as permeiam

Les zones côtières ont depuis longtemps été attractives pour leur potentiel économique, et leur intérêt touristique et résidentiel. Elles ont fait l’objet d’une implantation massive dans tous les pays du monde. Or, les littoraux sont non seulement fragilisés par cette anthropisation, mais sont également sujet à des dégradations liées au changement climatique. À l’élévation du niveau de la mer souvent mise en avant dans les médias s’ajoute l’érosion intensifiée par les tempêtes et ouragans à répétition. Alors qu’émerge depuis plusieurs années la question des déplacés environnementaux ne disposant d’aucun statut protecteur, et dont le symbole le plus extrême est la situation de certains petits États insulaires dont le territoire est menacé de disparition par la montée des eaux, la question de la gestion de cette problématique dans le respect des droits humains se pose de manière accrue. L’enjeu de ce travail, s’appuyant sur des pays au profil différent : Bangladesh, États-Unis, France, petits États insulaires (notamment les Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu), est de rechercher les causes profondes de cette contrainte devenue tellement intense qu’elle conduit au déplacement, pour favoriser l’adaptation sur place ou mettre en œuvre un déplacement non plus conçu comme un échec mais comme une stratégie d’adaptation. Ce changement de perspective impliquera de mobiliser des outils juridiques issus de branches variées du droit (urbanisme, assurance, responsabilité et droit humanitaire, etc.) et surtout de respecter certains principes afin d’assurer l’anticipation et l’acceptation de la démarche par les populations. Fort de l’étude de ces exemples, il s’agira d’identifier ces éléments communs tout en mettant en lumière et en tenant compte des spécificités de chaque pays, de chaque communauté. / Coastal areas have always been attractive for their economic potential and their touristic and residential interest. They have been massively settled in countries all over the world. However, while coastlines are weakened by human impact, they are also subject to degradations due to climate change. Besides the sea-level rise, often emphasized by the media, we must consider the erosion caused by storms and hurricanes. The current context is strongly marked by the question of the environmental displaced persons who do not have any status. This situation can be illustrated by the small island states whose territory is threatened by the sea-level rise. Thus, the issue of managing these problems in respect with human rights arises to an increased extent. The challenge of this work, supported by different country profiles: Bangladesh, USA, France, Small Island States (including the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu), is to seek the root causes of this dilemma that has become so intense that it leads to displacement, and then to promote and facilitate adaptation in-situ or adopt new displacement policies that are no longer perceived as a failure but as an adaptation strategy towards risks. This change of perspective intends to mobilize legal tools from various branches of law (Urbanism, Insurance, Liability and humanitarian law, etc.). It also intends to respect principles to ensure anticipation and acceptance of the approach by the people. With the study of these examples, we must identify these commons elements and take into account the specificities of each country and each community.

El carácter aplicado y estratégico del estudio de los Riesgos Naturales justifica el interés de abordar este tema desde el punto de vista global e integrador que caracteriza a la ciencia geográfica. En este campo, la comparación de las políticas desarrolladas en diferentes países, así como en la Unión Europea como ente supranacional, resulta muy valiosa para diseñar estrategias efectivas que puedan aplicarse a la mejora del sistema de gestión de riesgos naturales desarrollado en España. El fin último, el correcto ensamblaje entre las distintas fases de intervención y los organismos implicados, obedece al esfuerzo por comprender y reducir las inadaptaciones entre el ser humano y el medio en el que se inscriben sus actividades, contribuyendo de este modo a minimizar el impacto, tanto económico como social, de las catástrofes naturales. / The applicability and the strategic nature of Natural Risks investigation justify the interest to approach this subject from the global and binding point of view which characterizes Geography science. In this area, the comparison between policies that have been developed in different countries, as well as in the European Union as a higher body, could be extremely valuable in the design of effective strategies that might be applied to improve the Spanish natural risks management system. The final goal is to get the correct correlation between the different intervention phases and the organisms involved, in order to understand and reduce the failures in adaptation between human beings and the environment in which they live and act. This would contribute to minimize the economic as well as social impact of natural disasters.

Derek Parfit är kanske en av vår tids mest kända moralfilosofer. Parfit inleder sin första bok Reasons and Persons med att ställa frågan: vad har vi mest skäl att göra? Hans fråga berör vad som egentligen har betydelse, en fråga som han fortsätter att beröra i sin andra bok On What Matters. Filosofen Toby Ord argumenterar i sin bok The Precipice för att den utmaning som definierar vår tid, och bör ha en central prioritering, är utmaningen att skydda mänskligheten emot så kallade existentiella risker. En existentiell risk är en typ av risk som hotar att förstöra, eller förhindra, mänsklighetens långsiktiga potential. Ord menar att vi idag befinner oss vid en kritisk tidpunkt i mänsklighetens historia som kan vara helt avgörande för om det ens kommer existera en framtid för mänskligheten. Men om vi bör skydda mänskligheten emot existentiella risker, så kan en lämplig följdfråga vara i vilken ordning vi bör prioritera olika existentiella risker. Den svenske filosofen Nick Bostrom har liksom Ord länge förespråkat att existentiella risker bör tas på allvar. Han menar att preventiva åtgärder bör vidtas. I sin bok Superintelligens argumenterar Bostrom, både omfattande och väl, för att den existentiella risk som kan te sig som mest brådskande, och kanske allvarligast, är artificiell intelligens. Bostrom menar att vi har goda skäl att tro att utveckling av artificiell intelligens kan eskalera till den grad att mänsklighetens öde kan hamna bortom vår egen kontroll. Det han syftar på är att människan just nu är den dominerande agenten på jorden och därför innehar en stor kontroll, men att så inte alltid behöver vara fallet. Bostroms tes kunde te sig som okonventionell då den presenterades, men kan även te sig så idag vid en första anblick. Han har dock fått explicit medhåll av personer som Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Yuval Noah Harari och Max Tegmark, som antingen håller med eller resonerar i liknande banor. Även jag själv finner Bostroms antaganden välgrundade. Slutsatsen som många drar är därför att vi bör betrakta artificiell intelligens som en existentiell risk som ska prioriteras högt. Jag kommer dock i denna text att argumentera för tesen att vi inte bör betrakta artificiell intelligens som en existentiell risk. Tesen följer från en invändning som jag kommer att kalla för AI-paradoxen. Det tycks enligt invändningen som att artificiell intelligens inte kan leda till en existentiell katastrof givet vissa premisser som flera i debatten om artificiell intelligens tycks acceptera. Texten i uppsatsen är strukturerad på följande sätt. I avsnitt 2 kommer jag att återge det övergripande argumentet som cirkulerar i debatten om artificiell intelligens som ett hot. I avsnittet kommer jag också förklara några viktiga termer och begrepp. I avsnitt 3 börjar jag med att titta på den första premissen i argumentet, samt resonera om dess rimlighet. I avsnitt 4 går jag sedan vidare till den andra premissen i argumentet och gör samma sak med den. Väl i avsnitt 5 så väljer jag att presentera min egen idé som jag kallar för AI-paradoxen, vilket är en invändning mot argumentet. I avsnitt 6 diskuterar jag sedan AI-paradoxens implikationer. Avslutningsvis, i avsnitt 7, så ger jag en övergripande sammanfattning och en slutsats, samt några sista reflektioner. / Derek Parfit is perhaps one of the most famous moral philosophers of our time. Parfit begins his first book Reasons and Persons by asking the question: what do we have most reason to do? His question touches upon what really matters, a question he continues to touch upon in his second book On What Matters. The philosopher Toby Ord argues in his book The Precipice that the challenge that defines our time, and should have a central priority, is the challenge of safeguarding humanity from so-called existential risks. An existential risk is a type of risk that threatens to destroy, or prevent, humanity’s longterm potential. Ord means that today we are at a critical time in the history of humanity that can be absolutely decisive for whether there will even exist a future for humanity. But if we are to safeguard humanity from existential risks, then an appropriate question may be in what order we should prioritize different existential risks. The Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom, like Ord, has long advocated that existential risks should be taken seriously. He believes that preventive measures should be taken. In his book Superintelligence Bostrom argues, both extensively and well, that the existential risk that may seem most urgent, and perhaps most severe, is artificial intelligence. Bostrom believes that we have good reason to believe that the development of artificial intelligence can escalate to the point that the fate of humanity can end up beyond our own control. What he is referring to is that humans are currently the dominant agent on earth and therefore has great control, but that this does not always have to be the case. Bostrom's thesis may have seemed unconventional when it was presented, but it can also seem so today at first glance. However, he has been explicitly supported by people like Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Yuval Noah Harari and Max Tegmark, who either agree or reason similarly. I myself also find Bostrom's assumptions well-founded. The conclusion that many draw is therefore that we should regard artificial intelligence as an existential risk that should be given a high priority. However, in this text I will argue for the thesis that we should not regard artificial intelligence as an existential risk. The thesis follows from an objection of my own, which I call the AI ​​paradox. According to the objection, it seems that artificial intelligence cannot lead to an existential catastrophe given certain premises that many in the debate about artificial intelligence as a threat seem to accept. The text in the essay is structured as follows. In section 2 I will present the main argument circulating in the debate about artificial intelligence as a threat. In the section I will also explain some important terms and concepts. In section 3 I begin by looking at the first premise in the argument, and also reason about its plausibility. In section 4 I proceed to the second premise in the argument and examine it similarly. Once in section 5 I choose to present my own idea, which I call the AI ​​paradox, which is an objection to the argument. In section 6 I discuss the implications of the AI ​​paradox. Finally, in section 7, I give an overall summary and a conclusion, as well as some last reflections.