Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / Since the end of the Cold War, the principle naval powers of East Asia--China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea --have increased the importance they attach to their maritime strategies relative to the changing situation in East Asia and adjoining waters. With the growing reliance on each of these countries on seaborne trade and supply of resources, including oil, the countries' maritime defense policies, including the sea lanes of communications (SLOCs), are more important than ever. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the maritime visions of these three countries, the changing maritime security environment they address the maritime territorial disputes, in which they are engaged and the potential for a naval arms race in East Asia. It assesses the impact of Korean reunification and Chinese reunification on their maritime strategies and prospects for a regional multilateral maritime security regime. This thesis emphasizes the importance of the U.S. Navy's forward presence in stabilizing potential problems at sea in East Asia. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / This thesis analyzes a range of possible future scenarios governing security conditions in the Persian Gulf, in order to determine future requirements for forward-deployed Naval forces in the region. Examination of the past 30 years of U.S. Naval activity in the Persian Gulf provides examples of a full spectrum of deployment options ranging from a nominal presence in the 1970's to the recent deployment of forces unmatched in naval history. Two contrasting scenarios, "best case" and "worst case" are proposed by way of establishing a framework to evaluate the naval presence requirements that may arise in the future. Factors that could effect naval presence in the Gulf are success or failure of nationbuilding in Iraq, the path Iran takes regarding weapons of mass destruction, the progress of the Global War on Terrorism and the perception of American forces by the Arab world. These scenarios reveal the need for sustained naval presence in order to meet the future trends in the Persian Gulf. The Navy's recently implemented Fleet Response Plan calls for "deployment for a purpose." The purpose of naval forces in the Persian Gulf is clear: to provide persistent maritime dominance, power projection and effective crisis response. / Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve

Maritime security is especially critical for countries like Singapore, an island nation situated on the world's busiest shipping routes, whose economic prosperity is highly dependent on international trade from her busy port, petrochemical complexes and other high value units located along her coastline. This thesis borrows the ideas and techniques suggested for identifying air threats in the Air Defense Laboratory (ADL) and employ them to identify asymmetric maritime threats in port and waterways. Each surface track is monitored by a compound multi-agent system that comprise of the several intent models, each containing a nested multi-agent system. The attributes that define intent models of friendly, neutral, unknown and potentially hostile surface contacts are obtained from movement and communication protocols defined by the Vessel Traffic Information System (VTIS), maritime navigation rules and cues for surface warfare threat assessment. The underlying cognitive mechanism of the models is conceptual blending. The study includes a simulation of a mock VTS for the port of Singapore and surrounding waterways to test the ability of the models to compress data and information regarding multiple simulated surface contacts' into integration networks and then determine the surface contacts intent through the expansion of the integration networks.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / As a maritime nation, Pakistan has not been able to effectively exploit the sea and its resources. Decades of neglect have hampered the development of the maritime sector, which in turn has hurt both economic growth and the national security of the country. While seaborne trade is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, the domestic shipping and shipbuilding industries are in disarray. The exploitation of offshore natural resources is restricted to coastal fisheries. Despite its animosity with neighboring India, Pakistan has until recently relied on two colocated ports at Karachi, which would be a vulnerable target in any war. The continental mindset of the policymakers has affected the development of the Pakistan Navy as an effective element of the military strategy. This thesis argues that development of the maritime sector is important for both economic growth and the national security of Pakistan. In economic terms, the maritime sector can diversify the economic base and stimulate Pakistan's economic growth. The development of the Pakistan Navy both as a credible conventional and strategic force is important for protection of growing economic maritime interests against predation and coercion and also necessary to safeguard the strategic interests of the country. / Lieutenant Commander, Pakistan Navy

La réorientation stratégique des États-Unis vers l’espace indo-pacifique a été accompagnée par un regain d’intérêt pour ce qui est des questions maritimes. A la différence des théâtres principaux de la Guerre Froide, la géographie stratégique et économique de la région est fortement marquée par ses larges océans, ses détroits congestionnes, et ses eaux contestées. En conséquent, les profils nivaux des deux grandes puissances émergentes asiatiques, l’Inde et la Chine, ont attire une quantité non négligeable de travaux académiques. Cependant, alors que diverses études se sont focalises sur le rôle de la marine chinoise en tant que composante d’une stratégie militaire plus globale, jusqu’a récemment la majorité des explorations détaillées de la puissance navale indienne se sont penches sur la marine indienne elle-même, plutôt que sur la question de comment la quête de la puissance maritime s’articulait au sein d’une “grande stratégie” (grand strategy) plus compréhensive. Se basant sur plusieurs années de travail de terrain en Inde, en Chine, au Sri Lanka, ainsi qu’aux États-Unis, et plus d’une centaine d’entretiens avec des officiers de la marine indienne, ainsi qu’avec des responsables gouvernementaux ou militaires indiens, chinois, pakistanais, ou américains ; cette thèse vise a donner lieu a une meilleure compréhension-a la fois plus nuancée et aboutie-des tenants et des aboutissants de la modernisation navale indienne. Pour être plus précis, cette thèse tente de fournir une réponse a un paradoxe particulièrement troublant: la non juxtaposition, ou le « désalignement » (misalignment) constant entre la stratégie militaire indienne et la géographie maritime du pays. En effet, la position enviable de la péninsule indienne au centre de l’océan indien devrait, a priori, suggérer une prédisposition naturelle pour l’exercice de la puissance maritime. Depuis l’Independence, cependant, la marine indienne, d’une manière consistante, a été la moins bien financée des branches militaires indiennes, et a fréquemment lutté pour remplir un éventail exigeant de missions avec seulement des ressources très limitées. Il est certes vrai que, depuis deux décennies a peu près, le trajectoire de la marine indienne a pris un virage que l’on pourrait qualifier de positif, a la fois en terme de financement, et en terme d’acquisitions. Cela étant dit, la branche dite « Cendrillon » (Cinderella Service) continue de capter la portion la plus infime du budget de défense indien, qui persiste a nettement favoriser une armée indienne particulièrement lourde en effectifs humains. En 2013, par exemple, la marine indienne a seulement reçu 16 % du budget de défense, alors que l’armée a perçu a peu près 58 %, et l’armée de l’air 26%. Depuis plus d’une demie-décennie, des officiers de marine ont affirme a de multiples reprises, au cours de conversations avec cet auteur, que la part de budget de la marine s’élèverait éventuellement a 25 % du budget global, seulement pour voir leurs espoirs brises. La question fondamentale, donc, a laquelle cette thèse s’évertue a répondre est la suivante : cette tendance persistera t’elle, ou peut-on s’attendre a ce qu’une combinaison de facteurs provoque une refonte graduelle de la stratégie militaire indienne, ainsi que du schéma d’acquisitions et financement de son outil militaire ? / The United States’ strategic reorientation towards the Indo-Pacific has been accompanied by a heightened interest in matters maritime. In contrast to the primary theaters of the Cold War, the region’s strategic and economic geography is strongly defined by its wide oceans, narrow chokepoints, and meandering waterways. As a result, the naval profiles of Asia’s two great rising powers, India and China, have attracted a hitherto unprecedented level of scholarly attention. However, while various studies have focused on the role of China’s navy within its wider military strategy, until recently most detailed explorations of India’s growing naval power primarily focused on the Indian navy itself-rather than on how the quest for seapower fit into New Delhi’s emerging grand strategy. Building on several years of research in India, China, Sri Lanka, and the United States, and over one hundred interviews of Indian naval officers and government officials, both serving and retired, this dissertation aims to provide a deeper understanding of the context and ramifications of India’s naval rise. In particular, it seeks to explain a troubling paradox: the continued misalignment of New Delhi’s military strategy with its maritime geography. Indeed, the country’s enviable position at the heart of the Indian Ocean, along with its peninsular formation and extensive coastlines, would seem to suggest a natural predisposition towards the exercise of naval power. In reality, however, India’s navy since independence has consistently been the most poorly funded of its military services, and has frequently struggled to make do with limited resources. While the navy’s fortunes have taken a positive turn over the past two decades, both in terms of funding and procurement, the so-called Cinderella service still only captures the smallest portion of the overall defense budget, which remains heavily skewed toward the nation’s manpower-intensive Army. In 2013, for example, the Indian Navy only captured 16% of the defense budget, whereas the Army captured approximately 58%, and the Air Force 26%. Over the past five years, Indian naval officers have repeatedly assured this author that the Navy’s share would eventually rise to 25% of the overall defense budget, only to be sorely disappointed. The core question this dissertation endeavors to address is whether this trend will persist, or whether various factors will combine in order to provoke a gradual rebalancing of the nation’s military strategy and force structure.

I samband med publicering av militära doktriner startar allt som oftast en betydande debatt därdoktrinernas budskap diskuteras. Detta faktum har varit särskilt tydligt i USA vid utgivande avU.S. Navy´s doktriner. Doktrindiskussionen går till stor del att återfinna på olika militära tidskriftersdebattsidor vilka visar sig utgöra ett frekvent utnyttjat debattforum. Debattens inneboendekaraktär och tidskrifternas löpande publicering av inlägg gör det svårt att skaffa sig en täckandeoch rättvisande bild av den marina doktrindebattens innehåll och uttryck. Det är därför intressantatt på ett systematiskt sätt undersöka hur den marina doktrindebatten är utformad i dessa tidskrifter,vad debatten omfattar och vad den antas innehålla. Syftet med denna uppsats är därför att undersökaden marina debattens natur genom att tematiskt granska relationen doktriner och efterföljandedebatt. Med utgångspunkt i Wilhelm Agrells metod för analys av doktriner har ett analysinstrumentutvecklats i syfte att systematisera genomförandet av undersökningen.Uppsatsens resultat visar att framtagning och utveckling av ett analysinstrument för denna typ avundersökningar i hög grad underlättar och renodlar granskningen av doktriner och debatt. Resultatetvisar också att den marina tidskriftsdebatten är utbredd och omfattande till sin karaktär, menden är även mer dynamisk och oförutsägbar än det intryck som kan ges vid en första anblick. / When military doctrines are published, they often quickly become the subject of considerable debatewhere the message is analysed and discussed. This fact has been particularly evident in theUSA after the publication of U.S. Navy´s doctrines. Discussion of doctrine is most often to befound in debate and commentary in various military journals, which serve as a frequently usedforum for such discussions. The complex nature of the debate and continuous publishing of sucharticles make it difficult to get a comprehensive and accurate picture of the content and expressionof the debate about maritime doctrine. Therefore, it is interesting to examine more systematicallyhow doctrinal debate is shaped in these journals, what the debate encompasses and what its contents.Thus, the purpose of this essay is to study the nature of the maritime debate by thematically examiningthe relationship between doctrine and the subsequent debate. Setting out from WilhelmAgrell´s method for analysis of doctrines, an analytical instrument has been developed in order tosystematize the conduct of this investigation.Results show that the development and use of an analytical instrument for the examination of doctrineand debate greatly facilitates and refines the accomplishment of a systematic investigation.The results also show that the maritime debate is by nature extensive and comprehensive and thatit is even more dynamic and unpredictable then a first impression might indicate. / Avdelning: ALB - Slutet Mag 3 C-upps. Hylla: Upps. ChP 06-08

A.T.Mahan emphasizes the way to perform sea power is the way to apply navy strategy, which means a country¡¦s sea power is closely related to its national navy strategy development. Julian Corbett also argues that the main idea of navy's strategy lies in the competition of sea supremacy. Sea supremacy means a country keeps and controls the marine communication lines for its military and commercial purposes. The Communist China is facing changes domestically and internationally. The increasing dependence of economic growth on petroleum and natural gas import and maritime safety makes the Communist China has to guarantee the sea routes unblocked. Self-regarded as a big country along the seashore , the Communist China is promoting marine consciousness of the whole nation and the idea of sea power. The former navy chief commander Liu Hhua-qing had advocated constantly since the eighties ' to strengthen sea power and navy building. Since then, the Communist China has positively increased its domestic maritime activities in every field, which means it is now involved in more influence on the international order in the Asian-Pacific area. The thesis is mainly to analyse the Communist China¡¦s developing sea power on its relevant conditions, environments and concrete conduct. The thesis also studies and judges how China¡¦s sea power development influences the stability in the Asian-Pacific area. Focal points of the thesis include the truth of China¡¦s sea power development; whether the Communist China will develop the aircraft carrier fleet as being the rigional military and economic super power; the strategic consideration about Taiwan from American, Japanese and Chinese points of view; and whether the responses of the Asian-Pacific countries will cause the regional arm race and proliferation of weapons. The purpose of the thesis is to answer these questions.

The Gulf War showed the world how powerful the modern military forces are, and it caused the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) led by U.S. government. Due to the advance of technology, RMA is a chain reaction of changes, on the doctrines, training, organizing and operational methods. Both PLA and its traditional strategic thought of ¡¨People War¡¨ are not able to keep out of impacts brought by RMA, to against High Tech War in the future. Thus, PLA brings this slogan¡¨ RMA with Chinese Characteristics¡¨ in, and devotes itself into military reform, in order to reach the goal of¡¨ Winning High Tech Local War¡¨. PLA hopes to accelerate its step for constructing military information platform, and, at the same time, to reinforce army mechanization. In the end, PLA wants to be as strong as U.S. troops in the year of 2050. In the age of Chinese Reform, Chinese economy is growing incredibly fast, and this economic power turns and pours into its military budget, for constructing modern army forces and transforming military structure. It is obvious to observe, especially taking Chinese Navy¡¦s strategy which changed from¡¨ coastal defense¡¨ to¡¨ offshore defense¡¨ and the pinpoint¡¨ consolidating naval and air supremacy and executing strategic counter attack¡¨ in China¡¦s White Paper on National Defense for two examples, China is seeking to expand its naval capability and to realize its plan for modernization, in order to reach the goal of 2050. PLA Navy (PLAN) understands that there is a huge gap between Chinese Navy and U.S. Navy, however, but they believe that they can make it up through RMA. This essay discusses the influence on modernization for PLAN from 4 aspects, which are: technology and weapon, regime, operational theory, and training, and also analysis relations between PLAN¡¦s modernization and cross-strait security.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2003. / Thesis advisor(s): David S. Yost, Kenneth J. Hagan. Includes bibliographical references. Also available online.

Thesis (M.A.)--Naval Postgraduate School, 2003. / Title from home page (viewed Feb. 17, 2004). Includes bibliographical references. Also available in print version.