Climate change will likely have impacts on disease vector distribution. Posing a significant health threat in the 21st century, risk of tick-borne diseases may increase with higher annual mean temperatures and changes in precipitation. We modeled the current and future potential distribution of the Ixodes ricinus tick species in Europe. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) was utilized to predict potential distributions of I. ricinus based on current (1990-2010 averages) and future (2040-2060 averages) environmental variables. A ten model best subset was created out of a possible 200 models based on omission and commission criteria. Our results show that under the A2 climate change scenario the potential habitat range for the I. ricinus tick in Europe will expand into higher elevations and latitudes (e.g., Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Belarus), while contracting in other areas (e.g., Alps, Pyrenees, interior Italy, and northwestern Poland). Overall, a potential habitat expansion of 3.8% in all of Europe is possible. Our results may be used to inform climate change adaptation efforts in Europe.

Usnea hirta and Xanthoparmelia cumberlandia are commonly used as bio-monitors of air quality. In order to more accurately and efficiently determine the distribution of these two sensitive indicator species, we have developed a probabilistic distribution map as a function of 9 macroclimatic and topographic variables for the White River National Forest, Colorado using Non-Parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR) analysis. Furthermore, we also developed a logistic regression (LR) model for X. cumberlandia in order to evaluate the strengths and limitations of the NPMR model. The best model for U. hirta included four variables - solar radiation, average monthly precipitation, average monthly minimum and maximum temperature (log β = 3.68). The presence rate for U. hirta based on field validated test sites was 45.5%, 65.4%, and 70.4% for low, medium, and high probability areas, respectively. The best model for X. cumberlandia generated by both NPMR and LR involved the same variables - solar radiation, average monthly maximum temperature, average monthly precipitation, and elevation as the best predictor variables (log β = 5.10). The occurrence rate for X. cumberlandia using the NPMR model was 32%, 44.4%, and 20% for the low, medium, and high probability areas respectively while the LR model had 26%, 50%, and 38% for low, medium and high probability areas respectively. Although the LR model predicted a smaller high probability area compared to the NPMR model there was substantial overlap between the two. The U. hirta model performed better than the X. cumberlandia model. The reduced performance of our model especially for X. cumberlandia may be due in part to the absence of field measured data in the development of the model. Our study also suggested that the northeast and western part of the forest should be preferentially considered for establishing future air quality bio-monitoring reference sites. Finally, in the future a well defined sampling design with sufficient sampling sites, field measured predictor variables, and microclimatic data should be used in the development of predictive models.

Cold-water corals act as critical foundation species in the deep sea by creating extensive three-dimensional habitat structures that support biodiversity hotspots. There is currently a paucity of data concerning the environmental requirements and physiology of cold-water corals, severely limiting our ability to predict how resilient they will be to future environmental change. Cold-water corals are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of ocean acidification, the reduction in seawater pH and associated changes to the carbonate system caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here, the ecological niche and physiology of the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa is explored to predict its sensitivity to ocean acidification. Species distribution models were generated in order to quantify L. pertusa’s niche in the Gulf of Mexico with regard to parameters including seafloor topography, the carbonate system, and the availability of hard substrate. A robust oceanographic assessment of the Gulf of Mexico was conducted in order to characterize the current environmental conditions at benthic sites, with a focus on establishing the baseline carbonate system in L. pertusa habitats. Finally, an experimental approach was used to test the physiological response of biogeographically separated L. pertusa populations from the Gulf of Mexico and the Norwegian coast to ocean acidification. Based on my findings, it appears that L. pertusa already persists near the edge of its viable niche space in some locations, and therefore may be highly vulnerable to environmental change. However, experimental results suggest that some populations may be surprisingly resilient to ocean acidification, yielding broad implications for the continued persistence of cold-water corals in future oceans. / Biology

Late Pleistocene American black bears (Ursus americanus) often overlap in size with Pleistocene brown bears (U. arctos), occasionally making them difficult to diagnose. Large U. americanus have previously been distinguished from U. arctos by the length of the upper second molar (M2). However, the teeth of fossil U. americanus sometimes overlap size with U. arctos. As such, there is need for a more accurate tool to distinguish the two species. Here, 2D geometric morphometrics is applied to the occlusal surface of the M2 to further assess the utility of this tooth for distinguishing U. americanus and U. arctos specimens. When combined with an Ecological Niche Model of U. americanus and U. arctos in North America from the Last Glacial Maximum, this morphometric technique can be applied to key regions. A case of two Pleistocene specimens previously identified as U. arctos from eastern North America exemplifies the utility of this combination.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-12-18T12:34:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-12-18T14:28:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-18T14:28:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The White-Nose syndrome is an emergent infectious disease that had already killed almost six millions North American bats and spread more than two thousand kilometers. Even so, studies about their possible impacts upon hosts are still lacking, principally upon all the susceptible North American bats. We predicted the consequences of the WNS spread in the North American hosts by generating an environmental suitability map for the disease, and then, we overlaid with the extension of occurrence of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities will somehow negatively affect bat’s local populations, and we reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population reduction. 16% of the North American hibernating bat fauna were considered threatened under this WNS potential spread. We believe our results could contribute with governments conservation actions. / (Sem resumo)

Aim: The abundances and distributions of some species are more closely matched to variations in climate than others. Species traits that might influence how well the distribution and abundance of a species are matched to climatic variation include life history (e.g., body size and dispersal ability), ecology (e.g., habitat specialization and territoriality) and demography (e.g., population size). Here, we used a survey of bird abundances across the USA to assess the extent to which species abundances and distributions are predicted by climate (i.e., climate matching) and how species traits relate to interspecific variation in climate matching. Location: USA. Time period: 1983–2018. Major taxa studied: Birds. Methods: Species abundances were obtained from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Climate matching was estimated as the predictive performance of species–climate models fitted using boosted regression trees and generalized additive models and modelled as a function of species traits. Results: Species traits explained 56% of the variation in climate matching among species. Intermediate-sized species were more well matched to climate than smaller or larger species, as were species that lived primarily in forested compared with open habitats, species that were locally more abundant and species that were more territorial. Alternatively, species that were more specialized or had high variability in abundance among sites were less well matched to climate. We also found that species classified as “near threatened” were more well matched to climate, suggesting that these species might be more vulnerable to climate change. However, species classified as “vulnerable” were more decoupled from climate than those of “least concern”, possibly owing to ecological drift associated with progressive population declines. Main conclusions: Our findings provide an ecological basis for understanding the extent to which species abundances and distributions match broad climatic gradients, which can provide the groundwork to improve our ability to predict distributions under global change.

The Ziegler Reservoir fossil site (ZRFS) in Colorado contains over 4000 mastodon bones that date from 140,000 to 100,000 years ago. At an elevation of ~2705 meters above sea level, ZRFS represents an alpine ecosystem dated to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. Formal descriptions of cheek teeth, mandibles, crania, and femora were completed. Statistical analyses of the upper and lower third molars, including a novel measurement of interloph(id) distances, indicate significant differences between ZRFS mastodons and Mammut pacificus, while falling within the ranges for Mammut americanum. This study agrees with the taxonomic assignment of ZRFS mastodons to Mammut americanum and not Mammut pacificus. Body mass estimates of ZRFS mastodons are between 3451 and 6244 kg, and a niche model indicates elevation and water availability influenced Mammut distribution during MIS 5. Incorporating ZRFS mastodons into large comparative datasets will contribute to ongoing research into Late Pleistocene Mammut.

La phyllosphère est l’habitat fourni par la partie foliaire des plantes. De nombreuses espèces microbiennes - pathogènes, saprophytes ou mutualistes des plantes - peuplent cet environnement. Ce compartiment microbien influence donc la dynamique et la structure des communautés végétales. L’objectif principal de cette thèse était d’étudier les effets potentiels du changement climatique sur la structure des assemblages fongiques de la phyllosphère des arbres forestiers, et sur la niche écologique des espèces fongiques pathogènes des arbres forestiers. Nous avons pour cela utilisé deux approches, i) l’étude de gradients altitudinaux et ii) la construction de modèles de niche bioclimatique.Les assemblages fongiques de la phyllosphère des arbres forestiers étant encore peu connus, nous avons dans un premier temps décrit leur diversité et quantifié leur variabilité spatiale à l’échelle d’une parcelle forestière.Nos résultats montrent que la phyllosphère d’un arbre forestier abrite quelques centaines d’espèces fongiques, avec quelques espèces dominantes et beaucoup d’espèces rares. Les facteurs structurant ces assemblages incluent à la fois des facteurs abiotiques et biotiques : la température apparaît comme la variable climatique la plus explicative le long d’un gradient altitudinal ; à l’échelle d’une parcelle, la proximité génétique entre arbres est plus déterminante que leur distance géographique.L’analyse des modèles de niche des champignons pathogènes forestiers à l’échelle de la France met en évidence des limitations climatiques, les pluies estivales étant une variable explicative importante.Toutefois, plusieurs espèces introduites occupent déjà la plus grande part de la distribution de leur hôte,sans limitation apparente par le climat. Les effets du changement climatique sur la plupart des pathogènes s’exerceront d’abord indirectement par des effets dépressifs très importants sur l’abondance de leurs arbres-hôtes. Seuls les pathogènes adaptés au biotope méditerranéen verraient leur impact s’accroitre. / Phyllosphere is the habitat provided by the leaves of living plants. Many microbial species -pathogens, saprophytes or mutualists of plants - inhabit this environment. These microbes therefore influence the dynamics and structure of plant communities. The main objective was to study the potential effects of climate change on the structure of phyllosphere fungal assemblages, and on the ecological niche of pathogenic fungal species of forest trees. We used two approaches, i) the study of altitudinal gradients and ii) the construction of bioclimatic niche models. Since phyllosphere fungal assemblages of forest trees are still poorly known, we first described their diversity and quantified their spatial variability at the scale of a forest stand.Our results show that the phyllosphere of a forest tree houses hundreds of fungal species, with few dominant species and many rare species. Factors structuring these assemblages include both abiotic and biotic factors: the temperature appears as the most explanatory variable along an elevation algradient. At the scale of a forest stand, the genetic proximity between trees is more important than the geographic distance. Analysis of the bioclimatic niche models of pathogenic fungi forest at the French scale highlights some climatic limitations, and the summer rainfall is an important explanatory variable. However, many introduced species already occupy the distribution of their host, without apparent climatic limitation. The effects of climate change on most pathogens will be exercised indirectly by very important depressive effects on the abundance of their host trees. Only pathogens adapted to the Mediterranean biotope would increase their impact.

Over the last 20 years, Lyme disease has grown to become the most common vector-borne disease affecting Americans. Spread in the eastern U.S. primarily by the bite of Ixodes scapularis, the black-legged tick, the disease affects an estimated 329,000 Americans per year. Originally confined to New England, it has since spread across much of the east coast and has become endemic in Virginia. Since 2010 the state has averaged 1200 cases per year, with 200 annually in the New River Health District (NRHD), the location of our study. Efforts to geographically model Lyme disease primarily focus on landscape and climatic variables. The disease depends highly on the survival of the tick vector, and white-footed mouse, the primary reservoir. Both depend on the existence of forest-herbaceous edge-habitats, as well as warm summer temperatures, mild winter lows, and summer wetness. While many studies have investigated the effect of forest fragmentation on Lyme, none have made use of high-resolution land cover data to do so at the peridomestic level. To fill this knowledge gap, we made use of the Virginia Geographic Information Network’s 1-meter land cover dataset and identified forest-herbaceous edge-habitats for the NRHD. We then calculated the density of these edge-habitats at 100, 200 and 300-meter radii, representing the peridomestic environment. We also calculated the density of <2-hectare forest patches at the same distance thresholds. To avoid confounding from climatic variation, we also calculated mean summer temperatures, total summer rainfall, and number of consecutive days below freezing of the prior winters. Adding to these data, elevation, terrain shape index, slope, and aspect, and including lags on each of our climatic variables, we created environmental niche models of Lyme in the NRHD. We did so using both Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling, the two most common niche modeling algorithms in the field today. We found that Lyme is strongly associated with higher density of developed-herbaceous edges within 100-meters from the home. Forest patch density was also significant at both 100-meter and 300-meter levels. This supports the notion that the fine scale peridomestic environment is significant to Lyme outcomes, and must be considered even if one were to account for fragmentation at a wider scale, as well as variations in climate and terrain. / M.S. / Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States today. Infecting about 330,000 Americans per year, the disease continues to spread geographically. Originally found only in New England, the disease is now common in Virginia. The New River Health District, where we did our study, sees over 200 cases per year. Lyme disease is mostly spread by the bite of the black-legged tick. As such we can predict where Lyme cases might be found if we understand the environmental needs of these ticks. The ticks themselves depend on warm summer temperatures, mild winter lows, and summer wetness. But they are also affected by forest fragmentation which drives up the population of white-footed mice, the tick’s primary host. The mice are particularly fond of the interface between forests and open fields. These edge habitats provide food and cover for the mice, and in turn support a large population of ticks. Many existing studies have demonstrated this link, but all have done so across broad scales such as counties or census tracts. To our knowledge, no such studies have investigated forest fragmentation near the home of known Lyme cases. To fill this gap in our knowledge, we made use of high-resolution forest cover data to identify forest-field edge habitats and small isolated forest patches. We then calculated the total density of both within 100, 200 and 300 meters of the homes of known Lyme cases, and compared these to values from non-cases using statistical modeling. We also included winter and summer temperatures, rainfall, elevation, slope, aspect, and terrain shape. We found that a large amount of forest-field edges within 100 meters of a home increases the risk of Lyme disease to residents of that home. The same can be said for isolated forest patches. Even after accounting for all other variables, this effect was still significant. This information can be used by health departments to predict which neighborhoods may be most at risk for Lyme. They can then increase surveillance in those areas, warn local doctors, or send out educational materials.

La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) es troba entre les espècies més invasores: originària d'Amèrica del Sud, actualment ha envaït nombroses àrees arreu del món. Aquesta tesi doctoral intenta fer una primera anàlisi integrada i multiescalar de la distribució de la formiga argentina mitjançant l'ús de models de nínxol ecològic. D'acord amb els resultats obtinguts, es preveu que la formiga argentina assoleixi una distribució més àmplia que l'actual. Les prediccions obtingudes a partir dels models concorden amb la distribució actualment coneguda i, a més, indiquen àrees a prop de la costa i dels rius principals com a altament favorables per a l'espècie. Aquests resultats corroboren la idea que la formiga argentina no es troba actualment en equilibri amb el medi. D'altra banda, amb el canvi climàtic, s'espera que la distribució de la formiga argentina s'estengui cap a latituds més elevades en ambdós hemisferis, i sofreixi una retracció en els tròpics a escales globals. / Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) rank among the most successful invasive species: native to South America, they have invaded broad areas worldwide. This PhD thesis attempts to take the first step towards an integrated and multi-scalar analysis of the Argentine ant distribution using ecological niche models. According to our results, the Argentine ant is expected to occupy a broader distribution in its worldwide invaded ranges than is currently appreciated. Model predictions are in concordance with the currently known occurrence of the species, and indicate areas near the coast and following the main rivers as highly suitable for the species. These results give additional support to the idea that the Argentine ant is not currently in equilibrium with its environment. According to global climate change scenarios, the Argentine ant is expected to expand to higher northern and southern latitudes, and retract in the tropics at global spatial scales.