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Le vieillissement normal est caractérisé par un déclin cognitif subtil. Ce vieillissement cognitif est hétérogène : il existe des différences inter- et intra-individuelles dans la nature et l’étendue du déclin cognitif. L’hétérogénéité inter-individuelle se manifesterait par la présence de plusieurs profils cognitifs distincts parmi les personnes âgées normales (PAN). L’hétérogénéité cognitive peut également s’observer de manière intra-individuelle par une plus grande variabilité, soit une plus forte dispersion, dans les performances cognitives lors d’un contexte d’évaluation neuropsychologique chez un individu. Chez les PAN, certains profils cognitifs et mesures de dispersion ont été associés à un risque de développer une démence. Par ailleurs, la présence de biomarqueurs de la maladie d’Alzheimer (MA) est retrouvée chez une proportion significative de PAN et ces biomarqueurs auraient un impact délétère sur le fonctionnement cognitif dans le vieillissement normal. Ainsi, l’objectif de cette thèse est de mieux comprendre l’impact de différents biomarqueurs de la MA sur le fonctionnement cognitif des PAN, plus spécifiquement sur l’hétérogénéité cognitive que l’on retrouve au sein du vieillissement normal. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, composée de deux articles, 104 PAN ont réalisé une évaluation neuropsychologique approfondie, un examen de tomographie par émission de positons (PIB-TEP) permettant de quantifier la présence cérébrale du peptide bêta-amyloïde (βA), ainsi qu’un examen d’imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRM) permettant de mesurer les hyperintensités de la substance blanche (HSB) ainsi que l’épaisseur corticale. Le premier article de cette thèse porte sur l’hétérogénéité cognitive inter-individuelle. Les objectifs étaient : (1) de caractériser les différents profils cognitifs présents au sein du groupe PAN et (2) d’évaluer s’il existait des liens entre ces profils et les biomarqueurs de la MA. Trois profils cognitifs ont été identifiés : un profil où les performances cognitives sont globalement supérieures à la moyenne de l’échantillon, un profil où les performances sont généralement dans la moyenne et un dernier profil, minoritaire, où la majorité des performances se situent sous la moyenne. Uniquement ce dernier profil était associé à une charge amyloïde accrue et la présence plus importante d’HSB. Ces résultats suggèrent qu’au sein du vieillissement normal, un sous-groupe de participants présente un fonctionnement cognitif sous-optimal qui est en lien avec la présence de biomarqueurs de la MA. Le deuxième article porte sur l’hétérogénéité intra-individuelle et avait pour objectif de déterminer si la dispersion cognitive était associée à la présence des biomarqueurs de la MA. Les résultats montrent que, globalement, la dispersion n’est pas significativement associée à la présence de biomarqueurs de la MA. Seuls les scores de dispersion pour les domaines de la mémoire épisodique et en fonctionnement exécutif étaient associés aux HSB. Ces résultats suggèrent que la dispersion dans le vieillissement cognitif normal n’est pas directement associée à la pathologie Alzheimer. Cependant, certains éléments de cette dispersion pourraient être en lien avec une santé cérébrovasculaire sous-optimale. En conclusion, les résultats de cette thèse sont discutés à la lumière des connaissances actuelles. Les implications théoriques et cliniques de ces résultats sont abordées et différentes pistes de recherches futures sont évoquées. / Normal aging is characterized by subtle cognitive decline. This cognitive decline is heterogeneous: there are interindividual and intraindividual differences in the nature and extent of cognitive decline. Interindividual heterogeneity is thought to be manifested by the presence of several distinct cognitive profiles among normal older adults. Cognitive heterogeneity can also be observed in an intraindividual fashion through greater variability, or greater dispersion, in cognitive performance, in the context of an individual's neuropsychological assessment. In normal aging, certain cognitive profiles and measures of dispersion have been associated with a risk of developing dementia. Additionally, the presence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers is found in a significant proportion of normal older adults and these biomarkers have a deleterious impact on cognitive functioning in normal aging. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to better understand the impact of different AD biomarkers on the cognitive functioning of normal older adults, more specifically, on the cognitive heterogeneity that is found in normal aging. As part of this thesis, composed of two articles, 104 normal older adults carried out an in-depth neuropsychological evaluation and cerebral imaging scan, a positron emission tomography (PIB-PET) examination and a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) exam, to measure cerebral beta-amyloid peptides, white matter hyperintensities (WMH) and cortical thinning. The first article of this thesis deals with interindividual cognitive heterogeneity. The objectives were: (1) to characterize the different cognitive profiles present within the normal older adult group and (2) to assess whether there are links between these profiles and AD biomarkers. Three cognitive profiles have been identified: a profile where cognitive performance is overall higher than the sample average, a profile where performance is generally average and a final profile, where the majority of performance is below the average. This last profile was the only one associated with a greater amyloid load and an increased presence of WMH. These results suggest that within normal aging, a subgroup of participants exhibits suboptimal cognitive functioning and that this cognitive functioning is related to a greater AD biomarkers presence. The second article examines intraindividual heterogeneity and aimed to determine whether or not cognitive dispersion is associated with the presence of AD biomarkers. The results show that overall, dispersion is not significantly associated with the presence of AD biomarkers. Only dispersion scores for the domains of episodic memory and executive functioning were associated with WMH. These results suggest that dispersion in normal cognitive aging is not directly associated with AD biomarkers. However, some elements of cognitive dispersion could be linked to suboptimal cerebrovascular health. In conclusion, the results of this thesis are discussed in light of current knowledge. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are explored and various avenues for future research are proposed.

[pt] O principal objetivo desta dissertação é realizar a previsão da reserva IBNR. Para isto foi desenvolvido um modelo estatístico de distribuições combinadas que busca uma adequada representação dos dados. A reserva IBNR, sigla em inglês para Incurred But Not Reported, representa o montante que as seguradoras precisam ter para pagamentos de sinistros atrasados, que já ocorreram no passado, mas ainda não foram avisados à seguradora até a data presente. Dada a importância desta reserva, diversos métodos para estimação da reserva IBNR já foram propostos. Um dos métodos mais utilizado pelas seguradoras é o Método Chain Ladder, que se baseia em triângulos run-off, que é o agrupamento dos dados conforme data de ocorrência e aviso de sinistro. No entanto o agrupamento dos dados faz com que informações importantes sejam perdidas. Esta dissertação baseada em outros artigos e trabalhos que consideram o não agrupamento dos dados, propõe uma nova modelagem para os dados não agrupados. O modelo proposto combina a distribuição do atraso no aviso da ocorrência, representada aqui pela distribuição log-normal truncada (pois só há informação até a última data observada); a distribuição da quantidade total de sinistros ocorridos num dado período, modelada pela distribuição Poisson; e a distribuição do número de sinistros ocorridos em um dado período e avisados até a última data observada, que será caracterizada por uma distribuição Binomial. Por fim, a quantidade de sinistros IBNR foi estimada por método e pelo Chain Ladder e avaliou-se a capacidade de previsão de ambos. Apesar da distribuição de atrasos do modelo proposto se adequar bem aos dados, o modelo proposto obteve resultados inferiores ao Chain Ladder em termos de previsão. / [en] The main objective of this dissertation is to predict the IBNR reserve. For this, it was developed a statistical model of combined distributions looking for a new distribution that fits the data well. The IBNR reserve, short for Incurred But Not Reported, represents the amount that insurers need to have to pay for the claims that occurred in the past but have not been reported until the present date. Given the importance of this reserve, several methods for estimating this reserve have been proposed. One of the most used methods for the insurers is the Chain Ladder, which is based on run-off triangles; this is a format of grouping the data according to the occurrence and the reported date. However this format causes the lost of important information. This dissertation, based on other articles and works that consider the data not grouped, proposes a new model for the non-aggregated data. The proposed model combines the delay in the claim report distribution represented by a log normal truncated (because there is only information until the last observed date); the total amount of claims incurred in a given period modeled by a Poisson distribution and the number of claims occurred in a certain period and reported until the last observed date characterized by a binomial distribution. Finally, the IBNR reserve was estimated by this method and by the chain ladder and the prediction capacity of both methods will be evaluated. Although the delay distribution seems to fit the data well, the proposed model obtained inferior results to the Chain Ladder in terms of forecast.

Titel: Normal narcissism och personlighetsegenskapers inflytande i yrket som fastighetsmäklare – En fingervisning av de mest fördelaktiga egenskaperna hos svenska fastighetsmäklare  Nivå: Examensarbete på Grundnivå (kandidatexamen) i ämnet företagsekonomi Författare: Henric Mattsson och Louise PedersenHandledare: Dr. Jonas KågströmDatum: 2021 – Juni  Syfte: Många fastighetsmäklare väljer att sluta inom yrket de första åren, vilket bidrar till en stor kostnad för företagen. Normal narcissism har tidigare studerats som oberoende variabel till ett flertal organisatoriska faktorer, men få studier finns angående dess påverkan på motivation. Vidare används ofta personlighetsegenskaper för att förklara psykologiska faktorer inom organisationer. Syftet med denna C-uppsats är därför att mäta hur normala narcissistiska drag respektive personlighetsegenskaper påverkar motivation, prestation och avsikten att lämna arbetsplatsen hos svenska fastighetsmäklare.  Metod: Ett deduktivt tillvägagångssätt har applicerats på studien, där enkätundersökning är den valda datainsamlingsmetoden. Dataanalysen utfördes i statistikprogrammet “JASP”, där primärt bivariata korrelationsanalyser utförts. Populationen i studien är fastighetsmäklare inom Stockholms kommun.  Resultat och slutsats: Data samlades in från 204 respondenter. Resultatet visar starka relationer mellan normal narcissism och alla typer av motivation. Big Five- egenskaperna å andra sidan kan endast förklara inre motivation. Inga samband återfinns till vare sig prestation eller avsikten att lämna arbetsplatsen. En viktig slutsats i studien är att normal narcissism är fördelaktigt i yrket som fastighetsmäklare.  Examensarbetets bidrag: Teoretiskt bidrar studien till att normal narcissism har en stark inverkan på inre- och yttre motivation hos svenska fastighetsmäklare. Praktiskt bidrar studien till kunskap som är användbar för främst ledare inom branschen, där det är viktigt att låta fastighetsmäklarna vara autonoma och få chans till att utvecklas inom yrket.  Förslag till vidare forskning: Eftersom personlighetsegenskaper har en låg förklaringsgrad till fastighetsmäklares motivation, prestation och avsikten att lämna arbetsplatsen - bör andra oberoende variabler undersökas. Ett förslag är därför att undersöka kulturen på kontoret, och hur denna påverkar motivation.  Nyckelord: The Big Five, personlighetsegenskaper, normal narcissism, inre motivation, yttre motivation, prestation, avsikten att lämna arbetsplatsen, fastighetsmäklare / Titel: The influence of normal narcissism and personality traits in the profession as a realtor - A hint of the most beneficial characteristic of Swedish realtors Level: Student thesis, final assignment for Bachelor Degree in Business Administration Authors: Henric Mattsson and Louise PedersenSupervisor: Dr. Jonas KågströmDate: 2021 - June  Aim: Many realtors choose to quit the profession in the early years, which is a great cost to companies. Normal narcissism has previously been studied as an independent variable to several organizational factors, but few studies exist regarding its impact on motivation. Furthermore, personality traits are often used to explain psychological factors within organizations. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to measure how normal narcissistic traits and personality traits affect motivation, performance and turnover intention on Swedish realtors.  Method: A deductive approach has been applied to the study, where a survey is the chosen data collection method. The data analysis was performed in the statistical program “JASP”, where primarily bivariate correlation analyzes were performed. The population in the study is realtors in Stockholm County.  Result and conclusion: Data were collected from 204 respondents. The results show strong relationships between normal narcissism and all types of motivation. Personality traits, on the other hand, can only explain intrinsic motivation. No correlations were found to either performance or turnover intention. An important conclusion in this study is that normal narcissism is beneficial in the profession as a realtor.  Contribution of the thesis: Theoretically, the study contributes to the fact that normal narcissism has a strong impact on intrinsic- and extrinsic motivation among Swedish realtors. In practice, the study contributes to knowledge that is useful mainly for leaders in the industry, where it is important to let realtors be autonomous and have a chance to evolve in their profession.  Suggestions for future research: Since personality traits appear to be a poor predictor of the dependent variables in this study, other independent variables should be investigated. One suggestion is therefore to examine the culture in the office, and how this affects motivation.  Key words: The Big Five, personality traits, normal narcissism, intrinsic motivation, extrinsic motivation, performance, turnover intention, realtor

[pt] O presente trabalho consiste na integração de um campo solar em uma usina de gaseificação de resíduos sólidos urbanos no município de Boa Esperança em Minas Gerais. Os resíduos sólidos acumulados no lixão da cidade são utilizados como insumos para a geração de gás de síntese no reator químico da unidade. Esta operação recupera a extensa área degradada deste vertedouro permitindo a instalação do campo solar com coletores de calhas parabólicas. O intuito do projeto é o fornecimento contínuo de calor pelo campo solar através da instalação de tanques de armazenamento direto de calor. A operação do campo solar é simulada pela elaboração de uma rotina computacional no software Matlab através do método das diferenças finitas unidimensional. A solução numérica do sistema de equações diferenciais que compõe o balanço de energia do receptor solar é validada pela comparação com o teste experimental do Laboratório Nacional de Sandia do concentrador solar SEGS LS-2 com tubo absorvedor evacuado. Além disso, o controle da vazão mássica circulante pelo campo solar é incorporado na lógica computacional de modo que a temperatura na saída do campo solar seja mantida com valores próximo ao set-point de 390 graus Celsius. Portanto, as simulações computacionais com proposições sobre a partida e operação do campo solar são testadas para dias ensolarados do ano meteorológico típico de Boa Esperança. Finalmente, um dia real com nebulosidade é simulado para a análise do funcionamento do campo solar de acordo com a variação intermitente da irradiância direta normal. Os resultados da operação do dia real são utilizados como base para a aplicação da presente rotina computacional em futuros projetos do campo solar. / [en] This work intends to hybridize a solar field into the current waste to energy gasification power plant in Boa Esperança in Minas Gerais. The gasification process converts municipal solid waste to usable synthesis gas for electrical production. This current operation of waste to energy power plant removes waste accumulated from the landfill site. It recovers an extensive area for future solar field installation due to this available space without any waste in the future. The design of the planned solar field comprises the parabolic trough concentrating systems. The aim of the solar design is to provide ongoing heat to the power block with direct storage tanks. The solar field operation is simulated by the development of a Matlab computer program based one dimensional implicit difference method with energy balance approach of an evacuated receiver. The validation of present model was done by comparing the outlet temperatures of simulation results and the experimental data obtained by Sandia National Laboratories. Moreover, the mass flow rate is regulated through the field to make sure that the outlet temperature from the solar collector is kept as close to the desired 390 Celsius Degree as possible. To accomplish the main purpose of the work, many different computational models with start-up and full operation stages are suggested for different clear days along the typical meteorological year of the city Boa Esperança. Eventually, a cloud day with a real meteorological data was chosen for a computational model of the solar field performance. All results of the real day operation are used to improve the computer program of the present work. These results are useful for future solar field design.

Background: The spirometric reference values are of great importance for diagnosis and treatment of lung diseases. At present, there are no spirometric reference values for First Nations children and adolescents living in Canada. Objectives: The objectives of the present study were (1) to identify the flexible and efficient statistical method to derive lung function reference equations that can be used to obtain the predicted values and Lower Limit of Normal (LLN) for lung function in children and adolescents, and (2) to obtain prediction equations for FVC, FEV1 and FEV1=FVC for First Nations children and adolescents living in rural Saskatchewan, Canada. Methods: Spirometric results from a prospective cohort study, "First Nations Lung Health Project" were used to identify 130 healthy non-smoking children and adolescents. The predicted values and LLN of spirometric indices [Forced Vital Capacity (FVC), Forced Expiratory Volume at one second (FEV1) and FEV1 and FVC ratio (FEV1=FVC)] were calculated for school-going children and adolescents ages 6-17 years. The subjects participating in the study were from two Cree First Nations on-reserve communities located in rural Saskatchewan, Canada. All lung function values were reviewed by a respirologist for acceptability of the test. Following an extensive literature review, the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) was identified as a flexible statistical tool to model the lung function variables. The lung function indices were assumed to follow a Box-Cox-Cole-Green (BCCG) distribution with median, , coe ffcient of variation and skewness . Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) approach was used to obtain the reference models. The LLN was calculated by taking the fifth percentile of the prediction equations of the lung function variables. The above approach is recommended for the prediction of lung function of multi-ethnic people aged 3-95 years from different ethnic groups by the Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI). Results: Significant differences were observed in lung function (FVC, FEV1 and FEV1=FVC) and anthropometric measurements between both boys and girls. Therefore, fitting separate equations for both sexes are justified. In GLI, polynomial bases of order 6-7 were used for modeling the meadian, coefficient of variation and skewness . In this study, lower order polynomial bases (up to order 4) were enough to obtain the reference models. In GLI, the polynomial bases were divided by 100 to let it lie within 0 to 1. In this study, the polynomials were divided by 20 to lie these between 0 and 1. The predicted values of FVC was higher than the values for FEV1 in both boys and girls. Therefore the values of FEV1=FVC ratios is less than 100% in this population. In girls, the difference between the curves of FVC and FEV1 was smaller compared to boys. Thus, the total volume of air for girls during exhalation are close to the volume of air exhaled at the first second. The estimated curves showed that the models fitted the lung function data reasonably well. Conclusions: The results in this study showed that the optimum model for the prediction of lung function were almost similar to the ones used by GLI for the prediction of lung function of all-age multi-ethnic populations.The predicted values and LLN values of the lung function variables reported in this study can be recommended to health-care providers for the use in diagnosis respiratory diseases in First Nations children and adolescents in rural Saskatchewan. Small sample (n < 150) was a limitation of this study. This study limitation can be overcome by including more individuals from the follow-up study, which will be conducted in 2016.

In this thesis we consider the calibration of models based on Lévy processes to option prices observed in some market. This means that we choose the parameters of the option pricing models such that the prices calculated using the models correspond as closely as possible to these option prices. We demonstrate the ability of relatively simple Lévy option pricing models to nearly perfectly replicate option prices observed in nancial markets. We speci cally consider calibrating option pricing models to barrier option prices and we demonstrate that the option prices obtained under one model can be very accurately replicated using another. Various types of calibration are considered in the thesis. We calibrate a wide range of Lévy option pricing models to option price data. We con- sider exponential Lévy models under which the log-return process of the stock is assumed to follow a Lévy process. We also consider linear Lévy models; under these models the stock price itself follows a Lévy process. Further, we consider time changed models. Under these models time does not pass at a constant rate, but follows some non-decreasing Lévy process. We model the passage of time using the lognormal, Pareto and gamma processes. In the context of time changed models we consider linear as well as exponential models. The normal inverse Gaussian (N IG) model plays an important role in the thesis. The numerical problems associated with the N IG distribution are explored and we propose ways of circumventing these problems. Parameter estimation for this distribution is discussed in detail. Changes of measure play a central role in option pricing. We discuss two well-known changes of measure; the Esscher transform and the mean correcting martingale measure. We also propose a generalisation of the latter and we consider the use of the resulting measure in the calculation of arbitrage free option prices under exponential Lévy models. / PhD (Risk Analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

South Africa is in need of foreign direct investment (FDI) to increase economic growth and alleviate unemployment and poverty. To succeed in obtaining this FDI, South Africa must compete with the rest of the world for the available FDI. The global economic outlook is currently still uncertain and the growth of advanced economies are slowing down while Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa continue to grow at a steady pace. South Africa, as part of Sub-Saharan Africa, should take advantage of this growth on the African continent as well as internationally. Although studies have been performed to ascertain the tax policies of countries, the role of taxation applied by countries and the effects of taxation on FDI, there have been few studies on the tax policies specifically in respect of withholding taxes on interest. The new South African withholding tax on interest, applicable to South African source interest payments to non-residents, has been proposed to be included in terms of sections 49A to 49H in the Income Tax Act (58 of 1962) and will become effective from 1 January 2015. These sections have been introduced to align the said withholding tax and the section 10(1)(h) interest exemption, applicable to normal income tax in respect of non-residents, to the withholding taxes on interest and interest exemptions applied globally. Attention should be focused on whether the aforementioned global alignment will be achieved with the introduction of this legislation as South Africa had previously applied a similar legislation called non-residents’ tax on interest (NRTI) which appeared to be unsuccessful. Determining whether this legislation has been aligned with global practice will provide useful insight into whether this new legislation will promote, stagnate or be indifferent to FDI in South Africa, while at the same time not eroding the tax base with overly generous exemptions. This study reviews and compares the taxes implemented globally specifically in relation to withholding taxes on interest in a selection of countries, namely the developing countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mozambique and Namibia and the developed countries Germany and Denmark. Other determinants which will also have an impact on the comparisons of these withholding taxes are, for example, normal and withholding tax interest exemptions and repo rates – all of which have been incorporated into this comparative study. Based on the literature reviewed and the comparative analysis, the study concludes that the South African withholding tax on interest is effectively designed to keep attracting foreign lending in order to remain competitive in international markets. It is further shown that the South African legislation in respect of the section 10(1)(h) blanket interest exemption is aligned to that of global practice. / MCom (South African and International Taxation), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

In this thesis we consider the calibration of models based on Lévy processes to option prices observed in some market. This means that we choose the parameters of the option pricing models such that the prices calculated using the models correspond as closely as possible to these option prices. We demonstrate the ability of relatively simple Lévy option pricing models to nearly perfectly replicate option prices observed in nancial markets. We speci cally consider calibrating option pricing models to barrier option prices and we demonstrate that the option prices obtained under one model can be very accurately replicated using another. Various types of calibration are considered in the thesis. We calibrate a wide range of Lévy option pricing models to option price data. We con- sider exponential Lévy models under which the log-return process of the stock is assumed to follow a Lévy process. We also consider linear Lévy models; under these models the stock price itself follows a Lévy process. Further, we consider time changed models. Under these models time does not pass at a constant rate, but follows some non-decreasing Lévy process. We model the passage of time using the lognormal, Pareto and gamma processes. In the context of time changed models we consider linear as well as exponential models. The normal inverse Gaussian (N IG) model plays an important role in the thesis. The numerical problems associated with the N IG distribution are explored and we propose ways of circumventing these problems. Parameter estimation for this distribution is discussed in detail. Changes of measure play a central role in option pricing. We discuss two well-known changes of measure; the Esscher transform and the mean correcting martingale measure. We also propose a generalisation of the latter and we consider the use of the resulting measure in the calculation of arbitrage free option prices under exponential Lévy models. / PhD (Risk Analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Statistics / Paul I. Nelson / The null hypothesis of equal distributions, H0 : F1[equals]F2[equals]...[equals]FK , is commonly used to compare two or more treatments based on data consisting of independent random samples. Using this approach, evidence of a difference among the treatments may be reported even though from a practical standpoint their effects are indistinguishable, a longstanding problem in hypothesis testing. The concept of effect size is widely used in the social sciences to deal with this issue by computing a unit-free estimate of the magnitude of the departure from H0 in terms of a change in location. I extend this approach by replacing H0 with hypotheses H0* that state that the distributions {Fi} are possibly different in location and or scale, but close, so that rejection provides evidence that at least one treatment has an important practical effect. Assessing statistical significance under H0* is difficult and typically requires inference in the presence of nuisance parameters. I will use frequentist, Bayesian and Fiducial modes of inference to obtain approximate tests and carry out simulation studies of their behavior in terms of size and power. In some cases a bootstrap will be employed. I will focus on tests based on independent random samples arising from K[greater than and equals]3 normal distributions not required to have the same variances to generalize the K[equals]2 sample parameter P(X1>X2) and non-centrality type parameters that arise in testing for the equality of means.