A collapsed North Korea would pose a momentous test to the future of the region. The five regional powers—South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—are ill-prepared for such an event, partly because of the act of planning for it would upset North Korea. However, the potential challenges of a collapse are too great to ignore. This study presents an historical and political analysis of the increasing risk that North Korea may collapse. A comparison with earlier cases suggests that triggers and indicators of collapse can be identified, including increasing cross-border information flows, defections, and the possible death or incapacitation of North Korea’s leader. Further, the large and growing economic disparity between North Korea and its neighbors, South Korea and China, points to likely consequences of collapse, including possible mass migration. The study then examines the roles of South Korea, China, the U.S., Japan, and Russia in the future of the Korean peninsula; it concludes with a further consideration of the paradox of collapse planning, but argues that it would be better to run the risks entailed in the exercise than to be caught flatfooted when a collapse occurs. The analysis is based on interviews, surveys, and documents in English and Korean. / text

O presente artigo tem como objeto de estudo a política nuclear norte-coreana e analisa as suas origens e motivações históricas. O programa nuclear começou a ser desenvolvido na década de 1950 e evoluiu paulatinamente ao longo das três gerações do regime Kim (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un). A compreensão do que está por trás da política nuclear pressupõe o estudo das relações regionais que compõem as dinâmicas do Nordeste Asiático e envolvem os interesses, não apenas das duas Coreias, mas também da China, da Rússia, do Japão e dos Estados Unidos. A percepção das assimetrias regionais, bem como concepções acerca da política externa pós-revolucionária, contribuem para o entendimento da racionalidade da política nuclear da Coreia do Norte. A partir da revisão bibliográfica pertinente ao tema e da análise histórica do desenvolvimento nuclear norte-coreano, concluiu-se que a política nuclear é trabalhada como recurso de dissuasão e é elemento fundamental da estratégia de sobrevivência nacional. / The purpose of this article is to study the North Korean nuclear policy, analyzing its origins and historical motivations. The development of the nuclear program began in the 1950s and evolved gradually over the three generations of the Kim regime (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un). Understanding what lies behind the nuclear policy presupposes studying the regional relations that create the dynamics of Northeast Asia and engulf not only the interests of the two Koreas but also of China, Russia, Japan and the United States. The perception of regional asymmetries, as well as conceptions related to post-revolutionary foreign policy, contribute to the comprehension of the rationality behind North Korea's nuclear policy. Through the literature review of the relevant bibliography and the historical analysis of North Korean nuclear development, it was concluded that the nuclear policy is conducted to provide deterrence and represents a fundamental component of the national survival strategy.

O presente artigo tem como objeto de estudo a política nuclear norte-coreana e analisa as suas origens e motivações históricas. O programa nuclear começou a ser desenvolvido na década de 1950 e evoluiu paulatinamente ao longo das três gerações do regime Kim (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un). A compreensão do que está por trás da política nuclear pressupõe o estudo das relações regionais que compõem as dinâmicas do Nordeste Asiático e envolvem os interesses, não apenas das duas Coreias, mas também da China, da Rússia, do Japão e dos Estados Unidos. A percepção das assimetrias regionais, bem como concepções acerca da política externa pós-revolucionária, contribuem para o entendimento da racionalidade da política nuclear da Coreia do Norte. A partir da revisão bibliográfica pertinente ao tema e da análise histórica do desenvolvimento nuclear norte-coreano, concluiu-se que a política nuclear é trabalhada como recurso de dissuasão e é elemento fundamental da estratégia de sobrevivência nacional. / The purpose of this article is to study the North Korean nuclear policy, analyzing its origins and historical motivations. The development of the nuclear program began in the 1950s and evolved gradually over the three generations of the Kim regime (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un). Understanding what lies behind the nuclear policy presupposes studying the regional relations that create the dynamics of Northeast Asia and engulf not only the interests of the two Koreas but also of China, Russia, Japan and the United States. The perception of regional asymmetries, as well as conceptions related to post-revolutionary foreign policy, contribute to the comprehension of the rationality behind North Korea's nuclear policy. Through the literature review of the relevant bibliography and the historical analysis of North Korean nuclear development, it was concluded that the nuclear policy is conducted to provide deterrence and represents a fundamental component of the national survival strategy.

The thesis focuses on the relationship between China and the Korean Peninsula. It examines China's view on the peninsula, its ties to and influence over this region and its conceptions for the future of the peninsula. The thesis concentrates on the relations between the People's Republic of China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Nevertheless, the relationship between them is analyzed in the context of the Chinese long-term strategy for the Korean Peninsula. The primary Chinese interests related to North Korea are identified together with instruments that can China use to accomplish them. Special focus is given to the assessment of the economic influence that China has over North Korea. However, the Chinese economic leverage is examined in connection with political and military relations between those two countries and in broader context of the development of international relations in Northeast Asia.

O presente artigo tem como objeto de estudo a política nuclear norte-coreana e analisa as suas origens e motivações históricas. O programa nuclear começou a ser desenvolvido na década de 1950 e evoluiu paulatinamente ao longo das três gerações do regime Kim (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un). A compreensão do que está por trás da política nuclear pressupõe o estudo das relações regionais que compõem as dinâmicas do Nordeste Asiático e envolvem os interesses, não apenas das duas Coreias, mas também da China, da Rússia, do Japão e dos Estados Unidos. A percepção das assimetrias regionais, bem como concepções acerca da política externa pós-revolucionária, contribuem para o entendimento da racionalidade da política nuclear da Coreia do Norte. A partir da revisão bibliográfica pertinente ao tema e da análise histórica do desenvolvimento nuclear norte-coreano, concluiu-se que a política nuclear é trabalhada como recurso de dissuasão e é elemento fundamental da estratégia de sobrevivência nacional. / The purpose of this article is to study the North Korean nuclear policy, analyzing its origins and historical motivations. The development of the nuclear program began in the 1950s and evolved gradually over the three generations of the Kim regime (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un). Understanding what lies behind the nuclear policy presupposes studying the regional relations that create the dynamics of Northeast Asia and engulf not only the interests of the two Koreas but also of China, Russia, Japan and the United States. The perception of regional asymmetries, as well as conceptions related to post-revolutionary foreign policy, contribute to the comprehension of the rationality behind North Korea's nuclear policy. Through the literature review of the relevant bibliography and the historical analysis of North Korean nuclear development, it was concluded that the nuclear policy is conducted to provide deterrence and represents a fundamental component of the national survival strategy.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons has shaken the foundations of U.S. policy in Northeast Asia. Because of North Korea's record of state-sponsored terrorism, illicit activities, human rights violations, arms sales, and fiery rhetoric, its development of operational nuclear weapons is deeply disturbing. Although most agree North Korea should not possess nuclear weapons, nobody has a solution. This thesis evaluates three U.S. policy options for North Korean nuclear weapons: incentive-based diplomacy, coercive diplomacy, or military force. It analyzes them according to four criteria: the impact on North Korea's nuclear weapons, the impact on its neighbors (China, Japan, and South Korea), U.S. policy costs, and the precedent for future proliferation. This thesis shows that diplomacy will fail to achieve U.S. objectives for three reasons: lack of trust, DPRK reluctance to permit transparency, and the difficulty of conducting multilateral coercive diplomacy. Ultimately, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's question must be answered: "What price is the United States willing to pay to disarm North Korean nuclear weapons?" If Washington is unwilling to back a threat of military force, it should not risk coercive diplomacy. Likewise, U.S. leaders may need to decide between maintaining the U.S.-ROK alliance and eliminating North Korean nuclear weapons. / Major, United States Air Force

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / Since the collapse of the Communist bloc, Mongolia has pursued the independent foreign policy with balanced relations attached to the two great neighbors - Russia and China. Meanwhile, the search for a "third neighbor" (the United States, Japan and/or the collective community of democracies) has been seen as the alternative approach to the existing "neighbor-oriented" policy. The thesis argues that both approaches are not mutually exclusive schools of foreign policy, but rather constitute the common approach that is described within this research as "bufferism." To present an alternative vision of the nation's foreign policy orientation, the thesis covers the major schools of international relations and identifies the two major causes of policy: identity (based on constructivism) and interest (based on realism). As a nation, Mongolia faces the identity trilemma and the security dilemma, without much preference given to any of these options during the last decade. Hence appears the nation's ambiguity in identity, security and economic development. The thesis puts the argument that without prioritizing one option, Mongolia faces the risk of degrading into a failing state isolated from the global affairs. Thus, the reconciliation of its identity and interest, as well as of its aspirations must lead to a rational choice of a Sino-centric East Asian policy dimension over any other. / Civilian, Mongolian Ministry of Defense

在歐洲、北美、東南亞等地區皆有定期、頻繁的區域對話，對話內容廣泛，不再是過去國家安全、區域安全傳統定義下的「安全對話」。然而區域對話風氣的盛行，在東北亞地區卻嗅不到一絲絲這樣的氣息。東北亞地區由於本身的歷史特殊性與地緣政治的特性，在國際關係上始終是各國利益的錯綜複雜的區域。 東北亞地區國際政治衝突點主要為：領土糾紛、北韓核武危機、中日關係、日人綁架事件。北韓核武危機背後的動機主要是冷戰為結束之前，美國在南韓部署戰術核武瞄準北韓，北韓基於安全考量，於是發展核武計畫，另一原因則是針對日本，北韓視日本為安全威脅，基於歷史因素，北韓將其核武計畫背後目標對準日本。 冷戰結束後的新安全環境，應該要以區域安全考量為核心，東北亞地區主要的安全形勢是美國仍是東北亞地區重要的安全主導者，同時美日聯盟是區域內重要的安全安排，隨者中國的經濟持續發展，中國將在東北亞地區扮演重要角色。多邊協商與合作是解決東北亞地區安全問題最有效的辦法，定期舉多邊對話更可增加行為者之間的了解與互信，多邊主義可以解決區域內危機。東北亞地區多邊合作經驗豐富，雖然多半是非正式的二軌多邊對話經驗，不過非正式的對話多邊機制剛好符合亞太地區的特色，差異性大的亞太國家，或者是在冷戰痕跡深刻的東北亞地區，都以應養成對話習慣，針對區域內的危機熱點例如北韓問題、中日歷史爭議、中美關係、中日東海油源紛爭、日俄領土爭議等問題，都可以藉著多邊對話機制建立信心措施。 目前正在進行中的六邊會談正好替東北亞國家提供一個良好的基礎，雖然目前六邊會談是以解決北韓核武危機為主要，不過在六邊會談裡參與成員對等，並且六邊會談也沒有抹煞美國雙邊同盟的功能，日後東北亞國家應可以以六邊會談為基礎，討論更多區域內安全議題，促進東北亞地區的對話。東北亞地區多邊對話機制的發展可以融入冷戰結束後的新興安全觀念。如此一來反而有利既存的六邊會談進一步發展。 / There is EU as a multilateral forum in Europe. There is ASEAN in Southeast Asia for Asia countries to understand policies of each country and get better transparency. The international relations between Northeast Asia countries have always been complicated and uncertain. However, there is no multilateral dialogue in Northeast Asia. To study the multilateral dialogue mechanism, we must pay attention to Multilateralism. And because of the unique security situation in Northeast Asia after Cold War, we have also to take the cooperative security, common security and comprehensive security into consideration. Thus, we can discuss the possibility of developing a multilateral dialogue mechanism in Northeast Asia. A multilateral dialogue mechanism is a dialoguing forum that three or more countries cooperate with each other under some principles, with habits of practicing, without agenda limits, no participation limit, in order to solve security problems and reduce confrontations. The second North Korea nuclear crisis happened in 2002. The first Six-Party Talks began in 2003 and has hold for four times until now. Six-Party Talks can be viewed as a foundation of multilateral mechanism in Northeast Asia, despite there are still some shortcomings. As long as Six-Party Talks keeps meeting, it is an achievement of dialogue for Northeast Asia countries. Six-Party Talks makes it possible that solving the crisis in a peaceful way and taking the diplomatic way to engage with DPRK. The Japan-US Alliance is the key factor to influence the international politics in Northeast Asia. Basically, the bilateral relations between US and Asia Pacific countries have become a “wheel”. The hub of USA is a key factor of developing a multilateral mechanism or not. To develop a multilateral mechanism in Northeast Asia must cooperate with US and not against its interests in Pacific Asia. Also, Northeast Asia countries have to build their mutual confidence and interests dependence.

This doctoral thesis aims to provide a comprehensive and historical analysis of foreign policy behaviour of the principal states involved in nuclear talks on North Korea known as the Six-Party Talks (SPT). Despite the failure in achieving a primary objective of denuclearizing North Korea, the SPT were believed to provide interesting and informative cases to investigate dynamic interactions among states engaged in security talks with different motives and interests. For a holistic approach to foreign policy analysis, the thesis adopts a newly introduced theoretical framework called Interactionist Role Theory (IRT) which integrates the levels of analysis from individuals to international system by incorporating the concept of ‘roles’. Based on IRT, the thesis examines what drove the concerned states’ foreign policy shifts; what kinds of discrepancies the states experienced between or among competing roles (role conflicts); how successful their deliberate policy implementations were (role-makings); and what structural effects their foreign policy decisions had on the overall Six-Party Talks process. The thesis findings support the IRT premise that it is critical to understand a state’s perceived ideal roles to accurately identify the state’s motives for actions regarding particular foreign policy issues. The prevalence of inter-role conflicts at the time of states’ role-makings evinces that the SPT as social constraints did exert competing role expectations that challenged the member states’ role conceptions. Above all, the sequential analysis of the SPT process clearly shows the mutual influence between the member states (agents) and the SPT (social structure), which implies successful multilateral negotiations require reciprocal relations among participating states where all parties’ desired roles (role conceptions) are mutually verified and affirmed. The thesis is deemed to give insightful messages to conventional foreign policy readings that predominantly view the nuclear drama in the Northeast Asia region from a binary focus of US-DPRK mutual deterrence.

This dissertation looks at Northeast Asia as a region composed of China, Japan and South Korea in order to understand the regional dimension of international cooperation. It takes the Tripartite Environment Ministers’ Meeting and the China-Japan-Korea Meeting on<p>Information and Telecommunication Standards cases for comparative analysis. Its aim is to<p>examine cooperation and decision-making under uncertainty and to explore how they affect<p>institutional development and enhanced regional cooperation. Analysis of current cooperation activities as well as development of chosen cases illustrates interactions between individuals, organizations and states. Risks associated with decision-making affect<p>behaviors of actors and self-reinforcement mechanisms of institutions creating path<p>dependence. / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished