Iran ist einer der größten Ölexporteure der Welt, sieht sich aber trotzdem mit zahlreichen Energieproblemen konfrontiert (z. B. stark steigender und subventionierter Energieverbrauch). Gemein mit anderen OPEC-Staaten hat Iran außerdem das so genannte Dutch Disease. Für Iran wurden Langzeit-Energieszenarien berechnet, die den Einsatz von Energieeffizienz und erneuerbaren Energien in unterschiedlich hohen Graden abbilden. Es wird gezeigt, dass in Iran unter Beibehaltung des bisherigen energieintensiven Entwicklungspfads binnen weniger Jahrzehnte mehr Erdöl und Erdgas verbraucht werden, als heimisch produziert werden kann. Nur unter Annahme hoher Effizienzsteigerungen wird es möglich sein, dass Iran auch noch im Jahr 2050 Erdöl und Erdgas exportiert. Unter Annahme von Preiskurven wird deutlich, dass Energieeffizienz für den iranischen Staat sehr hohe (ökonomische) Gewinne ermöglicht. Die Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien in Iran ermöglicht ebenfalls hohe ökonomische Gewinne: Durch deren heimischen Einsatz kann Erdgas eingespart und exportiert werden. Außerdem tragen sie zu einer Diversifizierung des heimischen Energiemix sowie des Exportportfolios bei. Kernenergie ist dagegen für die Herstellung iranischer Versorgungssicherheit nicht notwendig. Der großmaßstäbliche Einsatz erneuerbarer Energien als Exportgut könnte innerhalb der OPEC einen Prozess der Disaggregation gemeinsamer Interessen einleiten. Dennoch sprechen zahlreiche Gründe dafür, dass die OPEC eine weitreichende Strategie für erneuerbare Energien und Energieeffizienz entwickelt, die langfristig ihren eigenen Interessen dient und sie zu einem Klimaschutz-Vorreiter machen kann.

本研究先以世界能源的發展歷程為座標，再將中國大陸的能源發展歷程放進這個框架，藉以解釋其演變的情形，並歸納中共當前的能源戰略，且進一步探討其對外交的影響。 首先，使用文獻分析法敘述人類利用能源資源的歷史，藉以瞭解世界能源的替代過程。其次，回顧近代以來，以石油為主的世界能源發展歷程，也就是從石油三巨頭主導的墨西哥灣時代、石油七姊妹壟斷的波斯灣時代、石油輸出國組織（OPEC）與國際能源總署（IEA）對抗的時代，以及現今的三大油氣供需區的形成，從中總結出能源發展與國際政治之間的歷史經驗。最後，就石油、天然氣、煤炭及鈾礦等當前世界主要的能源，介紹其分佈的情況及特徵，以及世界主要國家因此相應而生的能源戰略。 其次，以世界能源的發展歷程為背景，觀察中共自1949年建立政權以來，毛澤東、鄧小平、江澤民及胡錦濤等四代領導人，在各自面對不同的國內外能源形勢時，其能源發展政策所具有的戰略內涵為何。並且進一步比較各時期的能源發展政策，藉以瞭解造成中共能源戰略轉變的主要因素。接著透過對近幾年相關能源文獻的分析，歸納出中共當前能源戰略的面貌。並依戰略的形式，分析中共能源戰略的目標，及其達成目標的方法。 最後，以目前中共對國外能源的需求來源做為觀察的脈絡。將中共的國際能源外交版圖，放進由主要國家所構築的國際政治版圖中，以探討中共的能源戰略對其外交工作所產生的影響，並就中共能源外交戰略的趨向進行分析並提出看法。

Regulation of border and behind-the-border measures in the oil and gas sectors presents the ‘resource access’ challenge with immense economic ramifications for export markets, yet their status under the multilateral trading regime remains obscure. Recent developments that could reshape the trading regime and market dynamics for oil and gas have seen the call for a global energy governance gain momentum in recent years. But the complex relationships between national laws, institutional norms, and the multilateral trading regime regulating energy presents an ideological ‘conflict in applicable law’. They reveal a conflict between regulatory privileges enshrined in energy resource-focused institutions namely: OPEC as a producer-only treaty, the ECT as a sector-specific multilateral energy treaty, national energy laws on the heel of the PSNR principle as a customary international law; versus international obligations under the GATT rules relevant to energy. These regimes have the trappings of nationalism, regionalism, and institutionalism in energy regulation, thereby creating an ambiguous path to global energy governance. This research revisits the institutional and regulatory architecture of oil and gas regimes from the perspective of quota measures and trade-related investment measures (TRIMs) implemented through the instrumentality of national laws, acts of NOCs (in the oil sector) and acts of non-state undertakings (in the gas sector). It therefore charts an uncommon territory and brings a new dimension to the discipline of energy and trade, with a robust examination of how regulation of quota measures and trade-related investment in the oil sector (with export restriction issues) differs from their regulation in the gas sector (with underlying competition issues) and how their varying trade effects shape their future in international economic law. Given the inherent conflicts between the legal, policy, and regulatory design of these regimes governing energy, this research first explores and applies the principle of conflict of norms to energy governance. This paves way for a hands-on approach to examining the applications of these measures under the auspices of these regimes aimed at a ‘co-operative energy governance’ between the resource-focused regimes and the GATT rules relevant to energy on the basis of their trade effects. I argue that an understanding of ‘quota measures’ and ‘TRIMs’ in the oil sector compared to their implementations in the gas sector is compelling in making a case for a systemic energy cooperation that would serve economic interests of all affected states without diminishing the normative value of each regime in each sector.

Die Zwangsvollstreckung im Wege der Pfändung von Guthaben auf inländischen Bankkonten fremder Staatsunternehmen (am Beispiel der iranischen NIOC) wirft die Frage auf, wie weit die Immunuität ausländischer Staaten von der deutschen Gerichtsbarkeit in personeller und sachlicher Hinsicht reicht. Eine allgemeine Regelung durch einen multilateralen völkerrechtlichen Vertrag wäre wünschenswert.

Submitted by Daniele Santos (danielesantos.htl@gmail.com) on 2015-12-22T14:02:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2015-12-29T12:29:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-01-06T17:15:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-06T17:15:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-26 / How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

The crude oil phenomenon has always been a big issue and the current situation does not prove different. Crude oil as a commodity is indisputably considered as one of the most utilized energy source as well as production input which enters into economic processes in the vast majority of countries over the world. The aim of this masters thesis is to provide a detailed description and analysis of the crude oil world market. Furthermore it not only gives a characteristics of the commodity and its energy use it also defines the market and its participants crude oil pricing crude oil trading and it also provides an analysis of the world oil demand as well as supply.The purpose of this masters thesis is among other to thoroughly analyze the crude oil prices development and introduce the contemporary trends present on the market. In the latter part of this thesis there will be a crude oil prices time series modelled and probable future price direction outlined. Moreover the thesis will reflect on the current oil prices drop with its possible effect on world economy.

The growing world population accompanied by an increase in GDP is effectively raising the demand for energy. One of the options are unconventional means of oil and gas, originating mainly from shales and oil sands. The goal of this thesis is to introduce the reader to unconventional means and their influence on international business. After a short introduction and definition an analysis of the situation in the U.S. follows, where the recent years have brought an increase in production from unconventional sources. The positive influence on the economy, employment and energetic security will be mentioned same as possible impacts on the environment. Furthermore the paper provides an analysis of the potential of repeating the U.S. shale revolution in other countries, with special focus on the EU. The success of unconventional sources opens the possibility of new trade routes, influence on the trade balance and the potential of influencing the whole gas market. However, it will also have an impact on current oil and gas producers. Considering the close bond between energetic security and politics, the thesis closes with an analysis of influences on the economy and politics of both -- current oil and gas producers and countries, which might be directly and indirectly affected by changes in the oil and gas market.

This thesis uses innovative approaches to analyse energy policy interventions aimed at enhancing the environmental sustainability of energy use as well as its consequential welfare implications. First, we examine the relationship between energy efficiency improvement and CO2 emissions at the macro level. We use the Index Decomposition Analysis to derive energy efficiency by separating out the impact of shifts in economic activity on energy intensity. We then employ econometric models to relate energy efficiency and CO2 emissions accounting for non-economic factors such as consumers lifestyle and attitudes. The applications for 13 OPEC and 30 OECD countries show that at the country-group and individual country level, increase in energy intensity for OPEC is associated with both deteriorations in energy efficiency and shifts towards energy-intensive activities. The model results suggest that the reduction in energy efficiency in general go in tandem with substantial increases in CO2 emissions. The decline in energy intensity for OECD can be attributed mainly to improvements in energy efficiency which is found to compensate for the impact on CO2 emissions of income changes. The results confirm the empirical relevance of energy efficiency improvements for the mitigation of CO2 emissions. The method developed in this chapter further enables the separate assessment of non-economic behavioural factors which according to the results exert a non-trivial influence on CO2 emissions. Secondly, having empirically confirmed the relationship between energy efficiency improvements and CO2 emission at the macro level in Chapter 2, we investigate potential underlying drivers of energy efficiency improvements taking into account potential asymmetric effects of energy price change in Chapter 3. This is crucial for designing effective and efficient policy measures that can promote energy efficiency. In addition to the Index Decomposition Analysis used to estimate the economy-wide energy efficiency in Chapter 2, we also use Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Data Envelop Analysis as alternative methods. The driving factors are examined using static and dynamic panel model methods that account for both observed and unobserved country heterogeneity. The application for 32 OECD countries shows that none of the three methods leads to correspondence in term of ranking between energy efficiency estimates and energy intensity at the country level corroborating the criticism that energy intensity is a poor proxy for energy efficiency. The panel-data regression results using the results of the three methods show similarities in the impacts of the determinants on the energy efficiency levels. Also, we find insignificant evidence of asymmetric effects of total energy price but there is proof of asymmetry using energy specific prices. Thirdly, in Chapter 4 we offer an improved understanding of the impacts to expect of abolishing fuel price subsidy on fuel consumption, and also of the welfare and distributional impacts at the household level. We develop a two-step approach for this purpose. Key aspect of the first step is a two-stage budgeting model to estimate various fuel types elasticities using micro-data. Relying on these estimates and the information on households expenditure shares for different commodities, the second step estimates the welfare (direct and indirect) and distributional impacts. The application for Nigeria emphasises the relevance of this approach. We find heterogeneous elasticities of fuel demand among household groups. The distributional impact of abolishing the kerosene subsidy shows a regressive welfare loss. Although we find a progressive loss for petrol, the loss gap between the low- and high-income groups is small relative to the loss gap from stopping kerosene subsidy, making the low-income groups to suffer a higher total welfare loss. Finally, from the highlighted results, we draw the following concluding remarks in chapter 5. Energy efficiency appears a key option to mitigate CO2 emissions but there is also a need for additional policies aiming for behavioural change; energy specific prices and allowing for asymmetry in analysing the changes in energy efficiency is more appropriate and informative in formulating reliable energy policies; the hypothesis that only the rich would be worse-off from fuel subsidy removal is rejected and the results further suggest that timing of the fuel subsidy removal would be crucial as a higher international oil price will lead to higher deregulated fuel price and consequently, larger welfare loss.

國際能源機構(IEA)每個月的石油報告已經變成預測世界石油供給與需求一個很重要的資源。因此，我們蒐集從1990年10月到2005年12月中國際能源機構所發佈的179次宣告，利用事件研究法來衡量國際能源機構對石油相關市場的影響性。 實證結果顯示，國際能源機構的石油報告的確對石油相關市場傳達重要的資訊；而國際能源機構報告的影響效果似乎會隨著國家的不同而有所不同；在當中，石油的生產和消費量多寡、石油的密集度和油價中稅占的比例都扮演重要的角色；此外，在國際能源機構的報告中，關於預測石油需求變化這方面似乎特別被大家所重視。 / This study examines the impact of International Energy Agency's Oil Market Reports on oil-related prices. The IEA reports, published monthly in Paris, have become the primary source of world oil supply and demand forecasts. We collect 179 announcements that released by IEA over the period October 1990 to December 2005. We analyze the effects of these reports on three oil-related markets, IPE Brent Crude futures, oil industry indices and stock prices of oil companies in six countries. Moreover, we separate the effects of IEA’s forecast changes on oil supply from non-OPEC countries and oil demand from North America and China in IEA’s report. The results confirm that IEA’s reports carry important information source for oil-related markets because more than one half of our sample companies have abnormal returns around the announcement date of IEA’s reports, and we explore these prices respond negatively to the release of IEA’s reports. We also find that the actively traded IPE Brent Crude futures contracts are affected by IEA’s reports, particularly for the change of demand in North America. Forecast changes in IEA’s reports regarding supply in non-OPEC countries, demand in North America and China show that most countries are affected by the changes in these reports. The evidences also show that British and Norwegian oil stock markets react more strongly to the change of oil demand in North America and China. Moreover, we find that participants in the oil market put more emphasis on demand changes reported by IEA, especially for China demand. And we provides empirical evidence that these companies are concerned more about the related releases of decreased demand in North America and increased demand in China. Finally, cross-sectional analysis of cumulative abnormal returns suggests that the reaction of American and Norwegian companies to IEA’s announcements is stronger than other countries, and the change of demand in North America and China and the size variable for individual company contribute to the changes of abnormal returns around IEA’s reports.

Die Zwangsvollstreckung im Wege der Pfändung von Guthaben auf inländischen Bankkonten fremder Staatsunternehmen (am Beispiel der iranischen NIOC) wirft die Frage auf, wie weit die Immunuität ausländischer Staaten von der deutschen Gerichtsbarkeit in personeller und sachlicher Hinsicht reicht. Eine allgemeine Regelung durch einen multilateralen völkerrechtlichen Vertrag wäre wünschenswert.