Neste trabalho, nós consideramos o seguinte problema de valor inicial para uma equação diferencial funcional retardada com impulsos { \'x PONTO\' = \'varepsilon\' f (t, \'x IND.t\'), t \' DIFERENTE\' \'t IND. k\', \'DELTA\' x(\'t IND. k\') = \'varepsilon\' \' I IND. k\' (x ( \'t IND.k\')), k = 0, 1, 2, ... \'x IND. t IND.0\' = \' phi\', onde f está definida em um aberto \' OMEGA\' de R x \' G POT. -\' ([- r, 0], \' R POT. n\') e assume valores em \'R POT. n\', \' \'varepsilon\' \'G POT. - ([ - r, 0], \'R POT.n\'), r .0, onde \' G POT -\' ([ - r, 0], \' R POT. n\') denota o espaço das funções de [ - r, 0] em \' R POT. n\' que estão regradas e contínuas à esquerda. Além disso, \' t IND.0 < \' t IND. 1\'< ... \'t IND. k\' < ... são momentos pré determinados de impulsos tais que \'lim SOBRE k SETA + \' INFINITO\' \'t IND. k = + \' INFINITO\' e \'DELTA\'x (\' t IND.k\') = x ( \'t POT. + IND > k) - x (\'t IND. k). Os operadores de impulso \' I IND. k\', k = 0, 1, ... são funções contínuas de \'R POT. n\' em \' R POT. n\'. Consideramos, também, que para cada x \'varepsilon\' \' G POT. -\' ([- r, \' INFINITO\'), \'R POT. n\'), t \'SETA\' f (t, \'x IND. t\') é uma função localmente Lebesgue integrável e sua integral indefinida satisfaz uma condição do tipo Carathéodory. Além disso, f é Lipschitziana na segunda variável. Definimos \' f IND. 0\' ( \'phi\') = \' lim SOBRE T \' SETA\' \' INFINITO\' \'1 SUP. T \' INT. SUP. T INF. \' T IND.0\' f (t, \' PSI\') dt e \' I IND. 0(x) = \' lim SOBRE T \'SETA\' \' INFINITO\' \' 1 SUP. T\' \' SIGMA\' IND. 0 < ou = \' t IND. i\' < T onde \' psi\' \'varepsilon\' \' G POT. -\' ([ - r, 0], \' R POT. n\', e consideremos a seguinte equação diferencial funcioonal autônoma \" média\" y PONTO = \' varepsilon\' [ \' f IND. 0\' (\' y IND. t\' + \' I IND> 0\' (y (t))], \'y IND. t IND. 0 = \' phi\'. Então provamos que, sob certas condições, a solução x(t) de (1) se aproxima da solução y(t) de (2) em tempo assintoticamente grande / In this present work, we condider the following initial value problem for a retarded functional differential equation with impulses { \'x POINT\' = \'varepsilon\' f (t, \'x IND.t\'), t \' DIFFERENT\' \'t IND. k\', \'DELTA\' x(\'t IND. k\') = \'varepsilon\' \' I IND. k\' (x ( \'t IND.k\')), k = 0, 1, 2, ... \'x IND. t IND.0\' = \' phi\', where f está defined in a open set \' OMEGA\' de R x \' G POT. -\' ([- r, 0], \' R POT. n\'), r >0, and takes values in \'R POT. n\', \' \'varepsilon\' \'G POT. - ([ - r, 0], \'R POT.n\'), r .0, where \' G POT -\' ([ - r, 0], \' R POT. n\') denotes the space of regulated functions from [ - r, 0] to \' R POT. n\' which are left continuous. Furthermore, \' t IND.0 < \' t IND. 1\'< ... \'t IND. k\' < ... are pre-assigned moments of impulse effects such that \'lim ON k ARROW + \' THE INFINITE\' \'t IND. k = + \' THE INFINITE\' e \'DELTA\'x (\' t IND.k\') = x ( \'t POT. + IND>k) - x (\'t IND. k). The impulse operators \' I IND. k\', k = 0, 1, ... are continuous mappings from \'R POT. n\' to \' R POT. n\'. For each x \'varepsilon\' \' G POT. -\' ([- r, \' THE INFINITE\'), \'R POT. n\'), t \'ARROW\' f (t, \'x IND. t\') is locally Lebesgue integrable and its indefinite integral satisfies a Carathéodory. Moreover, f é Lipschitzian with respect to the second variable. We define \' f IND. 0\' ( \'phi\') = \' lim ON T \' ARROW\' \' THE INFINITE\' \'1 SUP. T \' INT. SUP. T INF. \' T IND.0\' f (t, \' PSI\') dt and \' I IND. 0(x) = \' lim ON T \'ARROW\' \' THE INFINITE\' \' 1 SUP. T\' \' SIGMA\' IND. 0 < or = \' t IND. i\' < T where \' psi\' \'varepsilon\' \' G POT. -\' ([ - r, 0], \' R POT. n\', and consider the \"averaged\" autonomous functional differential equation \'y PONTO = \' varepsilon\' [ \' f IND. 0\' (\' y IND. t\' + \' I IND> 0\' (y (t))], \'y IND. t IND. 0 = \' phi\'. Then we prove that, under certain conditions, the solution x(t) of (1) in aproximates the solution y(t) de (2) in an asymptotically large time interval

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:38:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA LEDA SILVA MORAES.pdf: 1708515 bytes, checksum: 8e07dd190f9a5fd165c14e35c2c626b0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-01 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Epidemiology is the science that studies the occurrence of diseases in a population. The results of these studies allow a comprehension of a disease propagation and enable actions in order to control epidemics. There are many mathematical models used in epidemiological studies; in which SIR-like models are the most used. In this model, the population is divided into three groups: S - susceptible individuals to infection, I - infected individuals, and R - recovered individuals. The proposal of this thesis is, based on a new SIR model, taking into consideration the effect of recovered individuals on the propagation of contagious diseases and on the recovery of sick individuals. This can be relevant to the study of propagation of typical diseases in children, since immune individuals can catalyze the encounters among susceptible children and infected children, as well as to contribute to the recovery of sick individuals. The predictive ability of the proposed model is evaluated from the records refering to the incidence of chickenpox in Belgium, Germany and Italy, in a pre-vaccination era. / Epidemiologia é a ciência que estuda as ocorrências de doenças numa população. Os resultados desses estudos permitem uma compreensão do comportamento da incidência da doença e possibilita ações a fim de controlar epidemias. Há vários modelos matemáticos que são utilizados para estudos epidemiológicos, sendo modelos do tipo SIR os mais empregados. Nesse modelo, divide-se a população em três classes: &#119878; - indivíduos suscetíveis à infecção, &#119868; - indivíduos infectados, e &#119877; - indivíduos recuperados. A proposta desta dissertação é, a partir de um novo modelo SIR, levar em consideração o efeito de indivíduos recuperados na propagação de doenças contagiosas e na recuperação de indivíduos doentes. Isso pode ser relevante no estudo da propagação de infecções típicas de crianças, já que indivíduos imunes podem servir como catalisador de encontros entre crianças suscetíveis e crianças infectadas, bem como contribuir para a recuperação de indivíduos doentes. A capacidade preditiva do modelo proposto é avaliada a partir dos registros referentes à incidência de varicela na Alemanha, Bélgica e Itália, numa era pré-vacinação.

Neste trabalho, nós investigamos a estabilidade da solução trivial da seguinte Equação Diferencial em Medida (EDM) Dx = f(x, t) + g(x, t)Du, (1) onde \'B BARRA IND. c\' = {\'x PERTENCE A\' \'R POT. n\'; //x// \' < OU=\' c}, f : \'B BARRA IND.c\' × [a, b] \'SETA\' \'R POT.n\' e g : \'B BARRA IND. c\' × [a, b] \'SETA\' \' R POT n\', u : [a, b] \' ETA\' ! R é uma função de variação limitada em [a, b] e contínua à esquerda em (a, b], f(x, ·) é Lebesgue integrável em [a, b], g(x, ·) é du-integrável em [a, b], f(0, t) = 0 = g(0, t) para todo t e Dx e Du denotam as derivadas distribucionais de x e u no sentido de L. Schwartz. Nós consideramos as funções f e g num contexto bem geral. Assim, para obtermos nossos resultados, nós provamos a correspondência biunívoca entre as soluções da classe de EDMs (1) em tal contexto e as soluções de certa classe de equação diferencial ordinária generalizada (EDOG). Desta forma, foi possível aplicarmos as técnicas e resultados da teoria das equações diferenciais ordinárias generalizadas, como teoremas do tipo Lyapunov e do tipo Lyapunov inverso, para obtermos os resultados correspondentes para a EDM (1). Os resultados apresentados neste trabalho sobre estabilidade da solução trivial da EDM (1) são inéditos. Parte deles foram apresentados no 660 Seminário Brasileiro de Análise. Veja [7] / In this work, we investigate the stability of the trivial solution of the following Measure Differential Equation (MDE) Dx = f(x, t) + g(x, t)Du, (2) where \'B BARRA IND.c\' = {x \'PERTENCE A\' \'R POT.n\'; //x// \' < OU=\' c}, f : \'B BARRA IND.c\' × [a, b] \'SETA\' \'R POT.n\' and g : \'B BARRA IND.c\' × [a, b] \'SETA\' \'R POT. n\' , u is function of bounded variation in [a, b] which is also left continuous on (a, b], f(x, ·) is Lebesgue integrable in [a, b] and g(x, ·) is du-integrable in [a, b], f(0, t) = 0 = g(0, t) for all t and Dx, Du denote the derivatives of x and u in the sense of distributions of L. Schwartz. We consider the functions f and g in a general setting. Thus, in order to obtain our results, we prove there is a one-to-one correspondence between the solutions of the MDE 2) in this setting and the solutions of a certain class of generalized ordinary differential equation (GODE). In this manner, it was possible to apply the techniques and results from the teory of GODE\'s, such as Lyapunov-type and converse Lyapunov-type theorems, to obtain the corresponding results for our MDE (2). The results presented in this work concerning the stability of the trivial solution of the MDE (2) are new. Some of them were presented at the 66th Seminário Brasileiro de Análise. See [7]

Este trabalho é dedicado à extensão do Método da Forma Normal para Equações Diferenciais Ordinárias às Equações Diferenciais Funcionais Retardadas. O método da forma normal para equações diferenciais funcionais retardadas nos dará o fluxo sobre uma variedade localmente invariante de dimensão finita através de uma equação diferencial ordinária. Como aplicação, calcularemos a forma normal para equação diferencial funcional retardada escalar com uma singularidade do tipo Bogdanov-Takens. Analisaremos também a forma normal para equações diferenciais funcionais retardadas com parâmetro. Finalizaremos este trabalho com o cálculo da forma normal de um sistema planar com singularidade do tipo Bogdanov-Takens. / In this work, we compute the normal forms associated with the flow on a finite dimensional invariant, manifold tangent to an invariant space for the infinitesimal generator of the linearized equation at the singularity. As an application, the Bogdanov-Takens singularity is considered.

Neste trabalho, apresentamos uma fórmula da variação das constantes para EDOs generalizadas lineares em espaços de Banach. Mais especificamente, estamos interessados em estabelecer uma relação entre as soluções do problema de Cauchy para uma EDO generalizada linear \'dx SUP. d \'tau\' =D[A(t )x], x(\'t IND. 0\') = \'x SOB. ~\' e as soluções do problema de Cauchy perturbado \'dx SUP. d \'tau\' =D[A(t )x +F(x, t )], x(\'t IND. 0\') = x(\'t IND. 0\') = \'x SOB. ~\' , em que as funções envolvidas são Perron integráveis e, portanto, admitem muitas descontinuidades e oscilações. Também provamos a existência de uma correspondência biunívoca entre o problema de Cauchy para uma EDF linear da forma { \' y PONTO\' =L(t )\'y IND. t\' , \'y IND. t IND. 0 = \\varphi\', , em que L é um operador linear e limitado e \'varphi\' é uma função regrada, e uma certa classe de EDOs generalizadas lineares. Como consequência, obtemos uma fórmula da variação das constantes relacionando as soluções da EDF linear e as soluções do problema perturbado { \'y PONTO\' = L(t )\'y IND.t\' + f (\'yIND. t\' , \'y IND. t IND. 0\' = \'\\varphi \', em que a aplicação \'t SETA \' f (\'y IND. t\' , t) é Perron integrável, com t em um intervalo de R, para cada função regrada y / In this work, we present a variation-of-constants formula for linear generalized ordinary differential equations in Banach spaces. More specifically, we are interested in establishing a relation between the solutions of the Cauchy problem for a linear generalized ordinary differential equation \'dx SUP. d \\tau\' =D[A(t )x], x(\'t IND. 0\') = x (\'t IND. 0\') = \'x SOB. ~\' and the solutions of the perturbed Cauchy problem \'dx SUP. \'d \\tau\' =D[A(t )x +F(x, t )], x(\'t IND. \'0) = \'x SOB.~\', where the functions involved are generalized Perron integrable and, hence, admit many discontinuities and oscillations. We also prove that there exists a one-to-one correspondence between the Cauchy problem for a linear functional differential equations of the form { \'y PONTO\' = L(t) \'y IND. t, \'y IND> 0 = \\varphi, where L is a bounded linear operator and \" is a regulated function, and a certain class of linear generalized ordinary differential equations. As a consequence, we are able to obtain a variation-of-constants formula relating the solutions of the linear functional differential equation and the solutions of the perturbed problem { \'y PONTO\' = L(T)\'y IND.t´+ f (\'y IND. t\', t), \'y IND.t IND. 0\' = \\varphi, where the application t \'ARROW\' f(\'y IND. t\', t) is Perron integrable, with t in an interval of R, for each regulated function y

Os progressos computacionais nas últimas décadas e a teoria matemática cada vez mais sólida têm possibilitado a resolução de problemas de alta complexidade, permitindo uma modelagem cada vez mais detalhada da realidade. Tal verdade aplica-se inclusive para os sistemas rígidos de Equações Diferencias Ordinárias (EDOs): existem métodos numéricos altamente performáticos para este tipo de problema, que permitem uma grande variação no tamanho do passo de integração sem impactar na sua convergência. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo sobre o conceito de rigidez e técnicas numéricas para resolução de problemas rígidos de EDOs. O que nos motivou a estudar tais técnicas foram problemas oriundos da Física Nuclear que envolvem cadeias de decaimento radioativo. Estes problemas podem ser modelados por uma cadeia fechada de compartimentos que se traduz em um sistema de EDOs. Os elementos destas cadeias podem possuir constantes de decaimento com ordens de grandeza muito distintas, caracterizando a sua rigidez e exigindo cautela na resolução das equações que as modelam. Embora seja possível determinar a solução analítica para estes problemas, o uso de métodos numéricos facilita a obtenção da solução quando consideramos sistemas com um número elevado de equações. Além disso, soluções numéricas permitem adaptações na modelagem ou em ajustes de dados com mais facilidade. Métodos implícitos são indicados para a resolução deste tipo de problema, pois possuem uma região de estabilidade ilimitada. Neste trabalho, implementamos dois métodos numéricos que possuem esta característica: o método de Radau II e o método de Rosenbrock. Estes métodos foram utilizados para obtenção de soluções numéricas robustas para problemas rígidos de decaimento radioativo envolvendo cadeias naturais e artificiais, considerando retiradas de elementos das cadeias durante o processo de decaimento e quando queremos determinar qual era o estado inicial de uma cadeia que está em decaimento. Ambos os métodos foram implementados com estratégias de controle do tamanho do passo de integração e produziram resultados consistentes dentro de uma precisão pré-fixada. / The computational progress in the last decades and the increasingly solid mathematical theory have made possible the resolution of highly complex problems allowing an ever more detailed modelling of reality. This is true even for the systems of stiff Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs): there are highly performative numerical methods for this kind of problem which allow a wide variation in the size of integration step without impacting on their convergence. This thesis presents a study about the concept of stiffness and numerical techniques to solve stiff problems of ODEs. What motivated us to study these techniques were problems from the Nuclear Physics involving radioactive decay chains. These problems could be modelled by a closed chain of compartments which is translated into a system of ODEs. The elements of these chains could have decay constants with very different orders of magnitude which characterizes the stiffness of the problem and requires caution in solving the model equations. Although it is possible to determine the analytical solution to these problems when we consider systems with a high number of equations, calculate the solution by numerical methods becomes easier. Furthermore, numerical solutions allow adaptations in modelling or data adjustments more easily. Implicit methods are indicated to solve this kind of problem because they have an unlimited region of stability. In this study, we implemented two numerical methods which have this feature: Radau II method and Rosenbrock method. These methods were used to obtain robust numerical solutions for stiff problems of radioactive decay involving natural and artificial chains, considering the removal of elements during the decay process and when we want to determine what was the initial state of a chain which is decaying. Both methods were implemented with control strategies for integration step size providing consistent results within a pre-established accuracy.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-03-06T17:46:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 carlarezendebarbosabonin.pdf: 3328861 bytes, checksum: 72bd85d272ff7cf9ee9d0cfb275e0d7e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-03-06T20:26:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 carlarezendebarbosabonin.pdf: 3328861 bytes, checksum: 72bd85d272ff7cf9ee9d0cfb275e0d7e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-06T20:26:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 carlarezendebarbosabonin.pdf: 3328861 bytes, checksum: 72bd85d272ff7cf9ee9d0cfb275e0d7e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-26 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Desde 1937 está disponível uma vacina eficaz contra febre amarela. Ainda assim, questões relativas a seu uso permanecem pouco entendidas, como, por exemplo, a necessidade da dose reforço a cada dez anos. O objetivo deste trabalho é demonstrar que ferramentas matemático-computacionais podem ser utilizadas para simular diferentes cenários referentes à vacinação e aos indivíduos a fim de auxiliar a busca pelas respostas de algumas destas questões em aberto. Neste contexto, este trabalho apresenta um modelo matemático-computacional da resposta imune humana à vacinação contra febre amarela. O modelo leva em conta importantes células dos sistemas inato e adaptativo, como células apresentadoras de antígeno, anticorpos, células B e células T (CD4+ e CD8+). Também são consideradas populações de células de memória, importantes na aquisição da imunidade conferida pela vacina. O modelo foi capaz de gerar curvas de anticorpos que estão de acordo com dados experimentais, além de representar o comportamento de diversas populações importantes do sistema imune de acordo com o que é esperado pela literatura. Este é o início de um caminho que, em um cenário ideal, permitirá simular diferentes situações relacionadas ao emprego da vacina contra febre amarela, como sua aplicação em indivíduos com imunodeficiências, diferentes estratégias de vacinação, duração da imunidade e necessidade de dose reforço. / An effective vaccine against yellow fever is available since 1937, but some issues regarding its use remain poorly understood, for example, the need for a booster dose every ten years. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that mathematical-computational tools can be used to simulate distinct scenarios related both to vaccination and individuals in order to assist the search for the answers to some of these open issues. In this context, this study presents a mathematical-computational model of the human immune response to vaccination against yellow fever. The model takes into account important cells of the innate and adaptive systems, such as antigen presenting cells, antibodies, B cells and T cells (CD4 + and CD8 +). Memory cell populations, important on the immunity induced by a vaccine, were also considered in the model. The model was able to generate antibodies curves which are in accordance with experimental data as well as to represent the behavior of several important populations of the immune system according to the results of the literature surveyed. This is the first step towards an ideal scenario where it will be possible to simulate distinct situations related to the use of yellow fever vaccine, as its application in immunodeficient individuals, different vaccination strategies, duration of immunity and the need for a booster dose.

This thesis is concerned with the numerical solutions of initial value problems with ordinary differential equations and covers single step integration methods. focus is to study the numerical the various aspects of Specifically, its main methods of non-linear integration formula with a variety of means based on the Contraharmonic mean (C.M) (Evans and Yaakub [1995]), the Centroidal mean (C.M) (Yaakub and Evans [1995]) and the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) (Yaakub and Evans [1993]) for solving initial value problems. the applications of the second It includes a study of order C.M method for parallel implementation of extrapolation methods for ordinary differential equations with the ExDaTa schedule by Bahoshy [1992]. Another important topic presented in this thesis is that a fifth order five-stage explicit Runge Kutta method or weighted Runge Kutta formula [Evans and Yaakub [1996]) exists which is contrary to Butcher [1987] and the theorem in Lambert ([1991] ,pp 181). The thesis is organized as follows. An introduction to initial value problems in ordinary differential equations and parallel computers and software in Chapter 1, the basic preliminaries and fundamental concepts in mathematics, an algebraic manipulation package, e.g., Mathematica and basic parallel processing techniques are discussed in Chapter 2. Following in Chapter 3 is a survey of single step methods to solve ordinary differential equations. In this chapter, several single step methods including the Taylor series method, Runge Kutta method and a linear multistep method for non-stiff and stiff problems are also considered. Chapter 4 gives a new Runge Kutta formula for solving initial value problems using the Contraharmonic mean (C.M), the Centroidal mean (C.M) and the Root-MeanSquare (RMS). An error and stability analysis for these variety of means and numerical examples are also presented. Chapter 5 discusses the parallel implementation on the Sequent 8000 parallel computer of the Runge-Kutta contraharmonic mean (C.M) method with extrapolation procedures using explicit assignment scheduling Kutta RK(4, 4) method (EXDATA) strategies. A is introduced and the data task new Rungetheory and analysis of its properties are investigated and compared with the more popular RKF(4,5) method, are given in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 presents a new integration method with error control for the solution of a special class of second order ODEs. In Chapter 8, a new weighted Runge-Kutta fifth order method with 5 stages is introduced. By comparison with the currently recommended RK4 ( 5) Merson and RK5(6) Nystrom methods, the new method gives improved results. Chapter 9 proposes a new fifth order Runge-Kutta type method for solving oscillatory problems by the use of trigonometric polynomial interpolation which extends the earlier work of Gautschi [1961]. An analysis of the convergence and stability of the new method is given with comparison with the standard Runge-Kutta methods. Finally, Chapter 10 summarises and presents conclusions on the topics discussed throughout the thesis.

Dans différents domaines de recherche, la modélisation est devenue un outil efficace pour étudier et prédire l’évolution possible d’un système, en particulier en épidémiologie. En raison de la mondialisation et de la mutation génétique de certaines maladies ou vecteurs de transmission, plusieurs épidémies sont apparues dans des régions non encore concernées ces dernières années. Dans cette thèse, un modèle décrivant la transmission de l’épidémie de chikungunya à la population humaine est étudié. Ce modèle prend en compte la mobilité spatiale des humains, ce qui est nouveau. En effet, c’est un facteur intéressant qui a influencé la réapparition de plusieurs maladies épidémiques. Le déplacement des moustiques est omis puisqu’il est limité à quelques mètres. Le modèle complet (modèle EDOs-EDPs) est alors composé d’un système à réaction-diffusion (prenant la forme d’équations différentielles partielles (EDPs) paraboliques semi-linéaires) couplé à des équations différentielles ordinaires (EDOs). Nous démontrons pour ce modèle, d’abord l’existence et l’unicité de la solution globale, sa positivité et sa bornitude, puis nous donnons quelques simulations numériques. Dans ce modèle, certains paramètres ne sont pas directement accessibles à partir des expériences et doivent être estimés numériquement. Cependant, avant de rechercher leurs valeurs, il est essentiel de vérifier l’identifiabilité des paramètres pour déterminer si l’ensemble des paramètres inconnus peut être déterminé de manière unique à partir des données. Cette étude permettra de s’assurer que les procédures numériques peuvent être couronnées de succès. Si l’identifiabilité n’est pas assurée, certaines données supplémentaires doivent être ajoutées. En fait, une première étude d’identifiabilité a été effectuée pour le modèle EDOs en considérant que le nombre d’œufs peut être facilement compté. Toutefois, après avoir discuté avec les chercheurs épidémiologistes, il apparaît que c’est le nombre de larves qui peut être estimé semaines par semaines. Ainsi, nous ferons une étude d’identifiabilité pour le nouveau modèle EDOs-EDPs avec cette hypothèse. Grâce à l’intégration de l’une des équations du modèle, on obtient des équations plus faciles reliant les entrées, les sorties et les paramètres, ce qui simplifie vraiment l’étude d’identifiabilité. A partir de l’étude d’identifiabilité, une méthode et une procédure numérique sont proposés pour estimer les paramètres sans en avoir connaissance. / In different fields of research, modeling has become an effective tool for studying and predicting the possible evolution of a system, particularly in epidemiology. Due to the globalization and the genetic mutation of certain diseases or transmission vectors, several epidemics have appeared in regions not yet concerned in the last years. In this thesis, a model describing the transmission of the chikungunya epidemic to the human population is studied. As a novelty, this model incorporates the spatial mobility of humans. Indeed, it is an interesting factor that has influenced the re-emergence of several epidemic diseases. The displacement of mosquitoes is omitted since it is limited to a few meters. The complete model (ODEs-PDEs model) is then composed of a reaction-diffusion system (taken the form of semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs)) coupled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We prove the existence, uniqueness, positivity and boundedness of a global solution of this model at first and then give some numerical simulations. In such a model, some parameters are not directly accessible from experiments and have to be estimated numerically. However, before searching for their values, it is essential to verify the identifiability of parameters in order to assess whether the set of unknown parameters can be uniquely determined from the data. This study will insure that numerical procedures can be successful. If the identifiability is not ensured, some supplementary data have to be added. In fact, a first identifiability study had been done for the ODEs model by considering that the number of eggs can be easily counted. However, after discussing with epidemiologist searchers, it appears that it is the number of larvae which can be estimated weeks by weeks. Thus, we will do an identifiability study for the novel ODEs-PDEs model with this assumption. Thanks to an integration of one of the model equations, some easier equations linking the inputs, outputs and parameters are obtained which really simplify the study of identifiability. From the identifiability study, a method and numerical procedure are proposed for estimating the parameters without any knowledge of them.

L’être humain est organisé selon une horloge interne d’une période d’environ 24 heures. La pharmacocinétique de certaines classes de médicaments est donc influencée par le rythme circadien. En effet, l’aire sous la courbe de la concentration en médicament en fonction du temps, la concentration maximale en médicament et le temps auquel on obtient la concentration maximale peuvent varier en fonction de l’heure à laquelle a été consommé le médicament. Le but de ce travail est de modéliser la variation de la concentration maximale de ces médicaments selon le moment de la journée auquel ils sont pris. On étudie d’abord un modèle présenté par Godfrey permettant de trouver la concen- tration en médicament en fonction du temps et tenant compte des variations circadiennes. Ce modèle ne permet pas d’illustrer les variations dans la concentration maximale selon le moment de la journée auquel le médicament est pris. Un nouveau modèle à deux com- partiments sera donc développé pour les trois modes d’absorption (orale, intraveineuse, intraveineuse bolus). Les systèmes d’équations différentielles résultants seront étudiés. L’effet de la variation des paramètres de phase sur la concentration maximale sera aussi étudié. La preuve de l’existence des solutions, de leur unicité et de leur positivité sera faite en annexe. / Humans are organised according to an internal clock with a period of approximatively 24 hours. The pharmacokinetic of several classes of drugs are then influenced by circadian rhythms. Indeed, the area under the curve (of the drug concentration as a function of time), the maximal concentration and the time to maximal concentration can change according to the time at which the drug is taken. The objective of this present work is to find a model to represent the variations in the maximal drug concentration according to the absorption’s time. We first study a model presented by Godfrey. It allows to find the drug concentration as a function of time while taking into account circadian rhythms. Unfortunately, this model could not represent the variations in the maximal concentration according to the time at which the drug is taken. We developed a new two-compartmental model for the three ways of absorption (oral, intravenous and intravenous bolus). The resulting systems of ordinary differential equations will be studied. The effect of the phase parameters on the maximal concen- tration will also be studied. Finally, the proof of well-poseness of the model will be developed in the Annex.