<p>The use of marketing research panels are a more and more frequently used source of information for studies within many different branches. The purpose of this report is to investigate the demographic composition of panels and compare it with the population of Sweden, a possible change in behaviour of respondents, and if the source of recruitment is the cause of possible differences in study results. The study was commissioned by Norstats Linkoping office. Sources for the data material include Norstat’s recruitment process and their two main panels with different recruitment sources. To enable a deeper investigation of behaviour we also constructed a survey that was sent to 2,714 members of Norstat’s internet panels.</p><p>The statistical analysis includes contingency table analysis, multiple logistic regression, and Poisson regression. The results show that the demographic composition does not fully cover all the aspects of the Swedish population and some groups are less represented than others. The behaviour tends to differ between panel members that have responded to three or less surveys compared to members that have responded to twenty or more surveys. Source of recruitment does not seem to affect the results of studies, but it has some effect on the demographic composition of marketing research panels.</p> / <p>Användandet av paneler som källa vid undersökningar har den senaste tiden blivit en allt vanligare företeelse. Denna rapport har för avsikt att undersöka panelers demografiska sammansättning och överensstämmande med Sveriges befolkning, eventuell ändring av svarsbeteende samt huruvida rekryteringskällan ger upphov till kvalitetsskillnader hos medlemmar i en panel. Företaget Norstat har med sitt kontor i Linköping figurerat som uppdragsgivare till arbetet. Datamaterialet till studien har uppkommit från Norstats rekryteringsprocess samt från företagets två huvudpaneler med olika rekryteringskällor. För att djupare undersöka svarsbeteende konstruerade vi även en enkätundersökning som skickades ut till 2 714 medlemmar i Norstats internetpaneler.</p><p>Den statiska analysen innefattar χ2-test, multipel logistisk regression samt Poissonregression. Resultaten påvisade att den demografiska sammansättningen i panelen inte fullt ut speglade Sveriges befolkning samt att vissa grupper undertäcks i högre utsträckning än andra. Svarsbeteendet hos medlemmar i paneler har en tendens att ändras från det att medlemmen har svarat på en till tre undersökningar, till det att den har svarat på tjugo undersökningar eller fler. Rekryteringskällan till en panel verkar inte ge upphov till några större skillnader i svarsresultat, men däremot finns vissa skillnader i demografisk sammansättning.</p>

During 2006 an estimated number of 150 persons are supposed to have been killed in road accidents caused by speed limit violations. Through Automatic traffic security control (ATK) the Swedish road administration (Vägverket) is working towards lowering the number of speed related accidents. By placing the speed cameras on roads they've managed to lower the average speed at those places. The enlargement of the number of speed cameras is based upon knowledge about for example how high the risk is for speed related accidents on the roads. The speed cameras always measure the speed in which every vehicle passes, but aren't constantly activated to register speed violations. Our purpose with this essay is consequently to explore possible relations between the activation of the speed cameras and the speed itself on the roads.We studied the average speed and the number of speed violations during 12 weeks evenly distributed in 2007. To see if the results would differ, we used two different response variables in the analysis.  Multiple linear regression was used to analyse the average speed, while Poisson regression was used in the analysis of the number of speed violations. An activated camera proved to cause a lowered average speed and fewer speed violations in three regions (Skåne, Mälardalen, Norr).To study the effect of maximized camera activation, an experiment in the region of Mälardalen was performed in the beginning of 2008. The result showed that maximized camera activation didn't decelerate the average speed, in stead the region's own activation policy seems to be more important for a lowered average speed. When the traffic flow rises the average speed decelerates while the number of speed violations also rises. During the study of commuter traffic we could see that the average speed is lower and there is fewer speed violations on commuter roads compared to normal traffic roads. / Under 2006 beräknas 150 personer ha omkommit i vägtrafikolyckor på grund av överskridna hastighetsgränser. Vägverket arbetar för att sänka dessa siffror bland annat genom att använda sig av Automatisk trafiksäkerhetskontroll (ATK). Genom att placera trafiksäkerhetskameror på sträckor har medelhastigheten på dessa sänkts. Trafiksäkerhetskamerorna mäter alltid hastigheten hos varje passerande fordon, men är inte konstant aktiverade för att registrera hastighetsöverträdelser. Nu vill man optimera kameraaktiveringen för att minska antalet ärenden utan att hanteringskapaciteten överskrids. Vårt syfte med uppsatsen är därför att undersöka möjliga samband mellan aktivering av trafiksäkerhetskameror och själva hastigheten på vägarna.Medelhastigheten och antalet överträdelser studerades under tolv veckor jämnt fördelade över år 2007. Analyserna gjordes med två olika responsvariabler för att se om resultaten skilde sig åt. Vi använde oss av multipel linjär regression för att analysera medelhastigheten, medan Poissonregression användes för antalet överträdelser. Det visade sig att en aktiv kamera gav upphov till sänkta medelhastigheter och färre hastighetsöverträdelser i tre regioner (Skåne, Mälardalen, Norr).För att studera effekten av maximal kameraaktivering utfördes ett experiment i region Mälardalen under början av 2008. Det visade sig att en maximal aktivering inte gav en sänkning av genomsnittshastigheterna, istället verkar regionens egen aktiverings-strategi ha större betydelse för sänkta genomsnittshastigheter.När fordonsflödet på alla sträckor ökar så minskar medelhastigheten medan antalet överträdelser ökar. För pendeltrafiksträckor är medelhastigheten lägre och det sker färre hastighetsöverträdelser än på normaltrafiksträckor.

<p>During 2006 an estimated number of 150 persons are supposed to have been killed in road accidents caused by speed limit violations. Through Automatic traffic security control (ATK) the Swedish road administration (Vägverket) is working towards lowering the number of speed related accidents. By placing the speed cameras on roads they've managed to lower the average speed at those places. The enlargement of the number of speed cameras is based upon knowledge about for example how high the risk is for speed related accidents on the roads. The speed cameras always measure the speed in which every vehicle passes, but aren't constantly activated to register speed violations. Our purpose with this essay is consequently to explore possible relations between the activation of the speed cameras and the speed itself on the roads.We studied the average speed and the number of speed violations during 12 weeks evenly distributed in 2007. To see if the results would differ, we used two different response variables in the analysis.  Multiple linear regression was used to analyse the average speed, while Poisson regression was used in the analysis of the number of speed violations. An activated camera proved to cause a lowered average speed and fewer speed violations in three regions (Skåne, Mälardalen, Norr).To study the effect of maximized camera activation, an experiment in the region of Mälardalen was performed in the beginning of 2008. The result showed that maximized camera activation didn't decelerate the average speed, in stead the region's own activation policy seems to be more important for a lowered average speed. When the traffic flow rises the average speed decelerates while the number of speed violations also rises. During the study of commuter traffic we could see that the average speed is lower and there is fewer speed violations on commuter roads compared to normal traffic roads.</p> / <p>Under 2006 beräknas 150 personer ha omkommit i vägtrafikolyckor på grund av överskridna hastighetsgränser. Vägverket arbetar för att sänka dessa siffror bland annat genom att använda sig av Automatisk trafiksäkerhetskontroll (ATK). Genom att placera trafiksäkerhetskameror på sträckor har medelhastigheten på dessa sänkts. Trafiksäkerhetskamerorna mäter alltid hastigheten hos varje passerande fordon, men är inte konstant aktiverade för att registrera hastighetsöverträdelser. Nu vill man optimera kameraaktiveringen för att minska antalet ärenden utan att hanteringskapaciteten överskrids. Vårt syfte med uppsatsen är därför att undersöka möjliga samband mellan aktivering av trafiksäkerhetskameror och själva hastigheten på vägarna.Medelhastigheten och antalet överträdelser studerades under tolv veckor jämnt fördelade över år 2007. Analyserna gjordes med två olika responsvariabler för att se om resultaten skilde sig åt. Vi använde oss av multipel linjär regression för att analysera medelhastigheten, medan Poissonregression användes för antalet överträdelser. Det visade sig att en aktiv kamera gav upphov till sänkta medelhastigheter och färre hastighetsöverträdelser i tre regioner (Skåne, Mälardalen, Norr).För att studera effekten av maximal kameraaktivering utfördes ett experiment i region Mälardalen under början av 2008. Det visade sig att en maximal aktivering inte gav en sänkning av genomsnittshastigheterna, istället verkar regionens egen aktiverings-strategi ha större betydelse för sänkta genomsnittshastigheter.När fordonsflödet på alla sträckor ökar så minskar medelhastigheten medan antalet överträdelser ökar. För pendeltrafiksträckor är medelhastigheten lägre och det sker färre hastighetsöverträdelser än på normaltrafiksträckor.</p>

Background Studies based on a cohort design requires access to both subject-specific and period-specific information. In order to conduct an occupational cohort study, access to exposure information and the possibility and permission to link information on outcomes from other registers are generally necessary. The analysis phase is also aggravated by its added complexity because of the longitudinal dimension of the cohort’s data.This thesis aims at increasing the knowledge on hazards from work on fatalities and cancer within the domain of cohort studies on miners and metal refiners and to study the complexity of the analysis by discussing and suggesting analytical strategies. Methods The study population for this thesis consisted of a cohort of 2264 blue-collar aluminium smelter workers (paper I) and a cohort of 13000 blue-collar iron-ore miners (papers II-IV), both followed for over 50 years. The outcomes were collected from the Swedish Cause of Death Register and the Swedish Cancer Register. The primary methods of analysis were either Standardized Morbidity Ratios (SMR) or internal comparisons based on Cox or Poisson regression modeling. In paper IV, a g-estimation based on an accelerated failure-time model was performed to estimate the survival ratio. Results The results from paper I suggested that working as a blue-collar worker metal refiner was associated with increased rates of incidental lung cancer. Elevated rates among short term workers were observed for several outcomes. Paper I also showed that the choice of reference population when calculating SMR could influence the conclusions of the results. In paper II, several outcomes were elevated among the miners compared to the reference population from northern Sweden. However, no outcome except lung cancer was associated with cumulative employment time. The most recurrent pattern of the results was the negative association between cumulative employment time underground and several outcomes. The results from paper III showed that cumulative employment time working outdoors was associated with increased rates of cerebrovascular disease mortality. However, employment with heavy physical workloads did not explain the previously observed decreasing rates in the selected groups of outcomes. The adjustment for the healthy worker survivor effect by g-estimation in paper IV suggested that exposure from respirable dust was associated with elevated mortality risks that could not be observed with standard analytical methods. Conclusion Our studies found several rates from the cohorts that were elevated compared to external refererence populations but also that long term employments generally were associated with decreasing rates. Furthermore, incidental lung cancer rates was found elevated for the metal refiners. Among the miners, mortality rates of cerebrovascular diseases depended on if work was performed outdoor (higher rates) or underground (lower rates). Methodologically, this thesis has discussed different analytical strategies for handling confounding in occupational cohort studies. Paper IV showed that the healthy worker survivor effect could be adjusted for by performing g-estimation.

Mirtingumo nuo įvairių ligų įvertinimas ir prognozavimas pagal atlikto tyrimo duomenis – dažnas statistinės analizės uždavinys medicinoje. Juose siekiama prognozuoti tikėtiną mirčių nuo tiriamos ligos skaičių, susirgimo tam tikra liga tikimybę ar išskirti rizikos grupes, įvertinant tyrimo metu surinktų stebimos populiacijos imties kintamųjų duomenis ir nustatant, kokia priklausomybę juos sieja. Pagrindiniai šio darbo tikslai: susipažinti su statistikos metodais, taikomais mirtingumo duomenų analizei; sudaryti statistinės analizės modelius turimiems mirtingumo duomenims; realizuoti sudarytus modelius programiškai, panaudojant SAS sistemą ir SAS makro programavimo galimybes. Panaudojus Puasono, logistinės ir Kokso regresin��s analizės metodus sudaryti mirtingumo nuo galvos smegenų insulto (GSI) prognozavimo modeliai. Sudaryti modeliai realizuoti programiškai, panaudojus SAS programavimo kalbą, SAS/IML posistemės galimybes ir SAS makro programavimo priemones. Sukurti regresinės analizės modeliai ir programines priemonės panaudotos Kauno medicinos universiteto Kardiologijos instituto 1980-2004 metais atliktų tyrimų metu surinktų Kauno miesto 25-64 m. amžiaus gyventojų mirtingumo nuo GSI duomenų analizei atlikti. / Estimation and forecasting of mortality from various diseases are very frequent data analysis tasks in medicine nowadays. In order to estimate expected number of deaths, probability to die from a disease or trends in mortality we should apply the most suitable statistical methods. Data analysis models were created using Poisson, logistic, Cox regression methods and realized in SAS macros. Created software also contains models for goodness of fit analysis, graphical visualization and prepares a report of data analysis in RTF (Rich Text Format) format. Analysis was made for mortality from stroke data among Kaunas population aged 25 to 64 during the period 1980-2004. The study contains the description of applying created data analysis models, SAS macros and received results.

La méthode que nous présentons pour modéliser des données dites de "comptage" ou données de Poisson est basée sur la procédure nommée Modélisation multi-niveau et interactive de la régression de Poisson (PRIMM) développée par Christiansen et Morris (1997). Dans la méthode PRIMM, la régression de Poisson ne comprend que des effets fixes tandis que notre modèle intègre en plus des effets aléatoires. De même que Christiansen et Morris (1997), le modèle étudié consiste à faire de l'inférence basée sur des approximations analytiques des distributions a posteriori des paramètres, évitant ainsi d'utiliser des méthodes computationnelles comme les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov (MCMC). Les approximations sont basées sur la méthode de Laplace et la théorie asymptotique liée à l'approximation normale pour les lois a posteriori. L'estimation des paramètres de la régression de Poisson est faite par la maximisation de leur densité a posteriori via l'algorithme de Newton-Raphson. Cette étude détermine également les deux premiers moments a posteriori des paramètres de la loi de Poisson dont la distribution a posteriori de chacun d'eux est approximativement une loi gamma. Des applications sur deux exemples de données ont permis de vérifier que ce modèle peut être considéré dans une certaine mesure comme une généralisation de la méthode PRIMM. En effet, le modèle s'applique aussi bien aux données de Poisson non stratifiées qu'aux données stratifiées; et dans ce dernier cas, il comporte non seulement des effets fixes mais aussi des effets aléatoires liés aux strates. Enfin, le modèle est appliqué aux données relatives à plusieurs types d'effets indésirables observés chez les participants d'un essai clinique impliquant un vaccin quadrivalent contre la rougeole, les oreillons, la rub\'eole et la varicelle. La régression de Poisson comprend l'effet fixe correspondant à la variable traitement/contrôle, ainsi que des effets aléatoires liés aux systèmes biologiques du corps humain auxquels sont attribués les effets indésirables considérés. / We propose a method for analysing count or Poisson data based on the procedure called Poisson Regression Interactive Multilevel Modeling (PRIMM) introduced by Christiansen and Morris (1997). The Poisson regression in the PRIMM method has fixed effects only, whereas our model incorporates random effects. As well as Christiansen and Morris (1997), the model studied aims at doing inference based on adequate analytical approximations of posterior distributions of the parameters. This avoids the use of computationally expensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The approximations are based on the Laplace's method and asymptotic theory. Estimates of Poisson mixed effects regression parameters are obtained through the maximization of their joint posterior density via the Newton-Raphson algorithm. This study also provides the first two posterior moments of the Poisson parameters involved. The posterior distributon of these parameters is approximated by a gamma distribution. Applications to two datasets show that our model can be somehow considered as a generalization of the PRIMM method since it also allows clustered count data. Finally, the model is applied to data involving many types of adverse events recorded by the participants of a drug clinical trial which involved a quadrivalent vaccine containing measles, mumps, rubella and varicella. The Poisson regression incorporates the fixed effect corresponding to the covariate treatment/control as well as a random effect associated with the biological system of the body affected by the adverse events.

Israël est l’un des pays développés les plus féconds dans le monde et maintient un taux de fécondité stable depuis 1995. Il a échappé à la chute spectaculaire de la fécondité qui a été observée dans la plupart des pays occidentaux. Le taux de fécondité était de 2,96 enfants par femme en 2009 (Statistical Abstract of Israel, 2010, tableau 3.14). Le maintien d’une si forte fécondité pourrait être dû à l’immigration et à la “guerre démographique” qui sévit entre les différentes communautés vivant dans le pays (Sardon, 2006). Toutefois, on observe une différence significative entre les niveaux de fécondité des juifs d’Israël et de Cisjordanie depuis plusieurs années. Les études qui portent sur la fécondité en Israël sont faites au niveau national, ce qui ne fournit aucune explication sur cette différence. Pour ces raisons, l’étude de la fécondité en Israël mérite une attention particulière. Ce projet vise à identifier les différents facteurs qui ont une incidence sur la fécondité des femmes juives vivant en Israël et en Cisjordanie. Il contribuera à une meilleure compréhension des comportements liés à la fécondité de la population juive de la Cisjordanie et peut fournir des indices sur les mécanismes complexes qui régissent les relations entre Juifs et Arabes dans les territoires occupés. Grâce aux données recueillies dans l’Enquête sociale générale de 2004 d’Israël,des analyses descriptives et explicatives ont été produites. Dans un premier temps, les facteurs qui ont un impact sur la fécondité dans chaque région ont été déterminés et par la suite, une analyse de l’importance de ces facteur sur la fécondité a été produite. Le nombre d’enfants nés de femmes âgées de 20 à 55 ans constitue la variable d’intérêt et les variables explicatives retenues sont les suivantes: religiosité, éducation, revenu familial mensuel, statut d’emploi, pays d’origine, âge et état matrimonial. Cette étude a montré que les femmes juives qui résident en Cisjordanie ont un nombre prévu d’enfants de 13% supérieur à celui des femmes juives qui résident en Israël lorsque l’on contrôle toutes les variables. Il est notamment montré que la religion joue un rôle important dans l’explication de la forte fécondité des femmes juives dans les deux régions, mais son impact est plus important en Israël. L’éducation joue également un rôle important dans la réduction du nombre prévu d’enfants, en particulier en Cisjordanie. Tous ces facteurs contribuent à expliquer les différents niveaux de fécondité dans les deux régions, mais l’étude montre que ces facteurs ne permettent pas une explication exhaustive de la forte fécondité en Israël et en Cisjordanie. D’autres forces qui ne sont pas mesurables doivent avoir une incidence sur la fécondité telles que le nationalisme ou la laïcisation, par exemple. / Israel is one of the most fertile developed countries in the world and has had a stable fertility rate since 1995. The country avoided the dramatic fall in fertility that has been observed in most Western countries. The fertility rate was of 2.96 children per woman in 2009 (Statistical Abstract of Israel, 2010, table 3.14). Maintaining such a high fertility level could be due to immigration and the “demographic war” between the different communities living in the country (Sardon, 2006). However, a significant difference between the levels of fertility of the jewish population of Israel and the West Bank has been observed for several years. In the literature, studies of fertility in Israel are conducted at a national level, which neither reveals nor explains the difference. Accordingly, Israel’s high fertility deserves a particular attention. This project aims to identify the different factors that affect the fertility of Jewish women living in Israel and in the West Bank. It will contribute to a better understanding of the fertility behavior of the Jewish population of the West Bank and may shed light on the complex mechanisms that govern the relations between Jews and Arabs in the Occupied Territories. With data collected in the General Social Survey of Israel of 2004, descriptive and explanatory analyses were produced. In the first part, factors influencing fertility in each region have been determined and an analysis of the importance of each factor on fertility was conducted in the second part. The outcome of interest is the number of children ever born to women aged 20 to 55 and the independent variables are: religiosity, education, monthly family income, employment status, country of origin, age and marital status. This study showed that Jewish women residing in the West Bank have an expected number of children 13% higher than their counterparts residing in Israel. It is also shown that the intensity of religious interest plays an important role in explaining the high fertility of Jewish women in both regions but its impact is more important in Israel. Education also plays an important role in reducing the expected number of children, especially in the West Bank. All of these factors contribute to explaining the different fertility levels in the two regions but the study shows that these factors do not provide an exhaustive explanation of higher fertility in the West Bank. There must be other forces that have an impact on fertility but which are not measurable such as nationalism or secularization, for example.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-14T12:47:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ArquivoTotal.pdf: 5481354 bytes, checksum: 0c13ae5c154f04c9968451cecffae9ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-08 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Until late 1980s, urban air pollution was attributed to industrial emissions. However, the fast urban growth in the developing nations caused the vehicles to become an issue of large magnitude. Nowadays, there is a situation in which the most responsible for the a relevant part of the air quality degradation in the bigger urban centers are the motor vehicles that are currently circulating on the roads, due to their great amount and poor state of repair. In some cities, the air pollutant concentration indexes have reached levels that threaten people's health, forcing the authorities to make decisions to control such problem. This current work aimed to verify the relationship among meteorological factors, vehicular air pollutants and the number of respiratory system disease cases notified by the department of health of Salvador-BA', by using the Poisson Regression Model. This investigation was conducted by using an ecological drawing made from secondary information about hospitalizations, collected from DATASUS and from data related to the monitoring of major air pollutants and to the meteorological parameters, from November 2010 to September 2012, acquired from the Environment and Water Resources Institute - INEMA. In this work, the most susceptible groups of people, that is, children (≤9 years old) and the elderly ( ≥65 years-old), were monitored. Acording to the achieved results, it was observed that the independent variables "SO2", "NO2", "CO" and "Temperature" were statistically relevant to justify the variability of the responds variable "Hospitalizations by respiratory system diseases" in children, to the exploratory level of 5%. Regarding to elderly, only the variables "NO2" and "O3" were statistically relevant to the significance level of 5%. Through the residual graphics and the diagnostic measures related to the Poisson model adjusted to the data about hospitalizations caused by respiratory system diseases in children and the elderly, it was possible to verify the proper suitability of the model used for the decision-making. / A poluição atmosférica urbana, até meados de 1980, era atribuída basicamente às emissões industriais, no entanto, o rápido crescimento urbano nos países em desenvolvimento fez com que os veículos se tornassem um problema de grande magnitude. Hoje se verifica uma situação em que os maiores responsáveis por grande parte da degradação da qualidade do ar nos grandes centros urbanos são os veículos automotores em circulação nas rodovias, devido à grande quantidade e péssimo estado de conservação. Em algumas cidades, os índices de concentrações de poluentes do ar passaram a atingir níveis que colocam em risco a saúde das pessoas obrigando as autoridades a tomar decisões para controlar este problema. o presente trabalho teve como objetivo verificar a relação entre fatores meteorológicos e poluentes atmosféricos veiculares com o número de casos de doenças respiratórias notificadas pela Secretaria de Saúde de Salvador-BA, mediante a utilização do Modelo de Regressão de Poisson. Essa investigação foi realizada utilizando-se um desenho ecológico a partir de informações secundárias de internações hospitalares coletados junto ao DATASUS e de dados acerca do monitoramento dos principais poluentes atmosféricos e dos parâmetros meteorológicos, no período de novembro de 2010 a setembro de 2012, adquiridos junto ao Instituto do Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos - INEMA. Foram observadas neste estudo as populações mais suscetíveis que são crianças (< 9 anos) e idosos > 65 anos). De acordo com os resultados obtidos, observou-se que as variáveis "SO2", "NO2", "CO2", e "Temperatura" são estatisticamente significantes para justificar a variabilidade da variável resposta "internações por doenças respiratórias" em crianças, ao nível exploratório de 5%. Com relação aos idosos, apenas as variáveis "NO2" e "O3" foram estatisticamente significantes ao nível de 5% de significância. Através dos gráficos de resíduos e de medidas de diagnóstico referentes ao modelo de Poisson ajustados aos dados sobre internações por doenças do aparelho respiratório em crianças e idosos. Foi possível verificar a boa adequação do modelo utilizado para a tomada de decisão.

Submitted by NILSON CÉSAR GALVÃO VIEIRA null (nil_gv@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-03-10T01:50:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 VIEIRA N.C.G..pdf: 2502695 bytes, checksum: 79c827f6494d3d8d91c8508084d0122b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-03-10T20:11:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 vieira_ncg_me_guara.pdf: 2502695 bytes, checksum: 79c827f6494d3d8d91c8508084d0122b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-10T20:11:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 vieira_ncg_me_guara.pdf: 2502695 bytes, checksum: 79c827f6494d3d8d91c8508084d0122b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-27 / Uma das principais causas de morbidade por problemas respiratórias em crianças e idosos é a poluição do ar. Os efeitos na saúde devido a exposição aos poluentes atmosféricos e a baixa qualidade do ar vem causando um aumento nas internações hospitalares. Esse estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver um modelo preditivo através do Modelo Linear Generalizado de Regressão de Poisson para analisar os efeitos da exposição de CO e PM2,5 sobre as internações hospitalares da rede pública no município de Rio Branco, AC, por problemas respiratórios em duas faixas etárias de ambos os sexos, de 0 a 14 anos e de iguais ou mais de 50 anos, durante o período de 01 de julho de 2012 a 30 de junho de 2013. A metodologia utilizada fundamenta-se na pesquisa de estudo ecológico de série temporal. A variável dependente considerada foi o número de internações hospitalares por doenças respiratórias CID 10 correspondentes aos códigos J 00 a J 99, cujos dados foram obtidos pelo DATASUS. As variáveis independentes consideradas foram a concentração diária de poluentes CO e PM2,5 (CCATT-BRAMS), número de queimadas (SISAM), umidade relativa do ar e temperatura mínima (INMET). Ajustes por tendência temporal e efeitos do calendário foram incluídos no modelo. Na análise unipoluente, devido a um incremento interquartil (25%-75%) para o CO (25 ppb) e PM2,5 (1,5 μg/m3 ), observou-se respectivamente, um aumento de 2,1% e 27,9% no aumento de internações para a faixa etária de iguais ou mais de 50 anos. E na análise multipoluente também com incremento interquartil, observou-se um aumento de 17,8% para a faixa etária de 0 a 14 anos e de 34,2% para a faixa etária de iguais ou mais de 50 anos. Os dados obtidos pelo aumento percentual forneceram uma variação de 1,13 % a 34,2 % no risco de internação, ou seja, aproximadamente 348 internações a mais, gerando para os cofres do município um custo de aproximadamente R$ 520 mil. / A major cause of morbidity due to respiratory problems in children and elderly is air pollution. Health effects due to exposure to air pollution and poor air quality is causing an increase in hospital admissions. This study aimed to develop a predictive model by Generalized Linear Model Poisson Regression to analyze the effects of CO exposure and PM2.5 on the hospitalization of the public network in Rio Branco, AC, for respiratory problems two age groups of both sexes, 0-14 years and of equal or more than 50 years during the period 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2013. The methodology used is based on the number of ecological research study temporal. The dependent variable was considered the number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases ICD-10 codes corresponding to the J 00 and J 99, whose data were obtained by DATASUS. The independent variables considered were the daily concentration of pollutants CO and PM2.5 (CCATT-BRAMS), number of fires (SISAM), relative humidity and minimum temperature (INMET). Adjustments for time trend and calendar effects were included in the model. In unipoluente analysis, due to an increase interquartile (25% -75%) to CO (25 ppb) and PM2.5 (1.5 g / m3 ) was observed respectively, an increase of 2.1% and 27, 9% increase in hospitalizations for children aged equal or more than 50 years. And in multipoluente analysis also with interquartile increase, there was an increase of 17.8% for the age group 0-14 years and 34.2% for the age group of equal or more than 50 years. And in multipoluente analysis also with interquartile increase, there was an increase of 17.8% for the age group 0-14 years and 34.2 % for the age group of the same or more than 50 years. The data obtained by the percentage increase provided a range of 1.13 % to 34.2% in the risk of hospitalization, or approximately 348 hospitalizations more, generating for the municipal coffers a cost of approximately R$ 520 thousand.

The use of marketing research panels are a more and more frequently used source of information for studies within many different branches. The purpose of this report is to investigate the demographic composition of panels and compare it with the population of Sweden, a possible change in behaviour of respondents, and if the source of recruitment is the cause of possible differences in study results. The study was commissioned by Norstats Linkoping office. Sources for the data material include Norstat’s recruitment process and their two main panels with different recruitment sources. To enable a deeper investigation of behaviour we also constructed a survey that was sent to 2,714 members of Norstat’s internet panels. The statistical analysis includes contingency table analysis, multiple logistic regression, and Poisson regression. The results show that the demographic composition does not fully cover all the aspects of the Swedish population and some groups are less represented than others. The behaviour tends to differ between panel members that have responded to three or less surveys compared to members that have responded to twenty or more surveys. Source of recruitment does not seem to affect the results of studies, but it has some effect on the demographic composition of marketing research panels. / Användandet av paneler som källa vid undersökningar har den senaste tiden blivit en allt vanligare företeelse. Denna rapport har för avsikt att undersöka panelers demografiska sammansättning och överensstämmande med Sveriges befolkning, eventuell ändring av svarsbeteende samt huruvida rekryteringskällan ger upphov till kvalitetsskillnader hos medlemmar i en panel. Företaget Norstat har med sitt kontor i Linköping figurerat som uppdragsgivare till arbetet. Datamaterialet till studien har uppkommit från Norstats rekryteringsprocess samt från företagets två huvudpaneler med olika rekryteringskällor. För att djupare undersöka svarsbeteende konstruerade vi även en enkätundersökning som skickades ut till 2 714 medlemmar i Norstats internetpaneler. Den statiska analysen innefattar χ2-test, multipel logistisk regression samt Poissonregression. Resultaten påvisade att den demografiska sammansättningen i panelen inte fullt ut speglade Sveriges befolkning samt att vissa grupper undertäcks i högre utsträckning än andra. Svarsbeteendet hos medlemmar i paneler har en tendens att ändras från det att medlemmen har svarat på en till tre undersökningar, till det att den har svarat på tjugo undersökningar eller fler. Rekryteringskällan till en panel verkar inte ge upphov till några större skillnader i svarsresultat, men däremot finns vissa skillnader i demografisk sammansättning.