Biologists have long used demographic approaches to answer questions in ecology and evolution. The utility of these approaches has meant a constant development and refinement of methods. A key milestone has been the development of phenotype structured population models that link ecology and evolution. Moreover, biostatistical research steadily improves methods to coax demographic information from scarce data. In this thesis, I build upon some of the recent advances in the field. My first three studies focus on the consequences of sex differences in life history for population dynamics. Firstly, I test whether males matter for the dynamics of African lion (Panthera leo) populations via a previously unquantified mechanism: the inheritance of phenotype from father to offspring. Secondly, I develop a method to estimate age-specific mortality rates for both sexes in species where one of the sexes disperses around the age of maturity. Thirdly, I apply this method to study variation in mortality between the sexes and between two populations of African lions. After these three chapters, which make contributions to the field of sex-structured population dynamics, I focus on the integration of phenotype structured modelling and quantitative genetics. I illustrate how heritability of a quantitative character that develops with age depends on (i) viability selection, (ii) fertility selection, (iii) the development of the phenotype with age, and (iv) phenotype inheritance from parents to offspring. Our results question the adequacy of quantitative genetics methods to obtain unbiased estimates of heritability for wild populations. This thesis advances our understanding of population development over ecological time scales. This knowledge has applications in conservation and population management, but also contributes to untangling evolutionary processes in wild animals.

Cette thèse porte sur l'étude probabiliste des réponses démographique et génétique de populations à certains événements ponctuels. Dans une première partie, nous étudions l'impact de catastrophes tuant une fraction de la population et survenant de manière répétée, sur le comportement en temps long d'une population modélisée par un processus de branchement. Dans un premier temps nous construisons une nouvelle classe de processus, les processus de branchement à états continus avec catastrophes, en les réalisant comme l'unique solution forte d'une équation différentielle stochastique. Nous déterminons ensuite les conditions d'extinction de la population. Enfin, dans les cas d'absorption presque sûre nous calculons la vitesse d'absorption asymptotique du processus. Ce dernier résultat a une application directe à la détermination du nombre de cellules infectées dans un modèle d'infection de cellules par des parasites. En effet, la quantité de parasites dans une lignée cellulaire suit dans ce modèle un processus de branchement, et les "catastrophes" surviennent lorsque la quantité de parasites est partagée entre les deux cellules filles lors des divisions cellulaires. Dans une seconde partie, nous nous intéressons à la signature génétique laissée par un balayage sélectif. Le matériel génétique d'un individu détermine (pour une grande partie) son phénotype et en particulier certains traits quantitatifs comme les taux de naissance et de mort intrinsèque, ou sa capacité d'interaction avec les autres individus. Mais son génotype seul ne détermine pas son ``adaptation'' dans le milieu dans lequel il vit : l'espérance de vie d'un humain par exemple est très dépendante de l'environnement dans lequel il vit (accès à l'eau potable, à des infrastructures médicales,...). L'approche éco-évolutive cherche à prendre en compte l'environnement en modélisant les interactions entre les individus. Lorsqu'une mutation ou une modification de l'environnement survient, des allèles peuvent envahir la population au détriment des autres allèles : c'est le phénomène de balayage sélectif. Ces événements évolutifs laissent des traces dans la diversité neutre au voisinage du locus auquel l'allèle s'est fixé. En effet ce dernier ``emmène'' avec lui des allèles qui se trouvent sur les loci physiquement liés au locus sous sélection. La seule possibilité pour un locus de ne pas être ``emmené'' est l'occurence d'une recombination génétique, qui l'associe à un autre haplotype dans la population. Nous quantifions la signature laissée par un tel balayage sélectif sur la diversité neutre. Nous nous concentrons dans un premier temps sur la variation des proportions neutres dans les loci voisins du locus sous sélection sous différents scénarios de balayages. Nous montrons que ces différents scenari évolutifs laissent des traces bien distinctes sur la diversité neutre, qui peuvent permettre de les discriminer. Dans un deuxième temps, nous nous intéressons aux généalogies jointes de deux loci neutres au voisinage du locus sous sélection. Cela nous permet en particulier de quantifier des statistiques attendues sous certains scenari de sélection, qui sont utilisées à l'heure actuelle pour détecter des événements de sélection dans l'histoire évolutive de populations à partir de données génétiques actuelles. Dans ces travaux, la population évolue suivant un processus de naissance et mort multitype avec compétition. Si un tel modèle est plus réaliste que les processus de branchement, la non-linéarité introduite par les compétitions entre individus en rend l'étude plus complexe / This thesis is devoted to the probabilistic study of demographic and genetical responses of a population to some point wise events. In a first part, we are interested in the effect of random catastrophes, which kill a fraction of the population and occur repeatedly, in populations modeled by branching processes. First we construct a new class of processes, the continuous state branching processes with catastrophes, as the unique strong solution of a stochastic differential equation. Then we describe the conditions for the population extinction. Finally, in the case of almost sure absorption, we state the asymptotical rate of absorption. This last result has a direct application to the determination of the number of infected cells in a model of cell infection by parasites. Indeed, the parasite population size in a lineage follows in this model a branching process, and catastrophes correspond to the sharing of the parasites between the two daughter cells when a division occurs. In a second part, we focus on the genetic signature of selective sweeps. The genetic material of an individual (mostly) determines its phenotype and in particular some quantitative traits, as birth and intrinsic death rates, and interactions with others individuals. But genotype is not sufficient to determine "adaptation" in a given environment: for example the life expectancy of a human being is very dependent on his environment (access to drinking water, to medical infrastructures,...). The eco-evolutive approach aims at taking into account the environment by modeling interactions between individuals. When a mutation or an environmental modification occurs, some alleles can invade the population to the detriment of other alleles: this phenomenon is called a selective sweep and leaves signatures in the neutral diversity in the vicinity of the locus where the allele fixates. Indeed, this latter "hitchhiking” alleles situated on loci linked to the selected locus. The only possibility for an allele to escape this "hitchhiking" is the occurrence of a genetical recombination, which associates it to another haplotype in the population. We quantify the signature left by such a selective sweep on the neutral diversity. We first focus on neutral proportion variation in loci partially linked with the selected locus, under different scenari of selective sweeps. We prove that these different scenari leave distinct signatures on neutral diversity, which can allow to discriminate them. Then we focus on the linked genealogies of two neutral alleles situated in the vicinity of the selected locus. In particular, we quantify some statistics under different scenari of selective sweeps, which are currently used to detect recent selective events in current population genetic data. In these works the population evolves as a multitype birth and death process with competition. If such a model is more realistic than branching processes, the non-linearity caused by competitions makes its study more complex

Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to environmental change are essentially ignored in SDMs. Furthermore, neither dispersal nor demographic processes and biotic interactions are explicitly incorporated. Therefore, it has often been suggested to link statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches in order to make more realistic predictions of species’ distributions for scenarios of environmental change. In this thesis, I present two different ways of such linkage. (i) Mechanistic modelling can act as virtual playground for testing statistical models and allows extensive exploration of specific questions. I promote this ‘virtual ecologist’ approach as a powerful evaluation framework for testing sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. Also, I employ such an approach to systematically assess the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections. That way, relevant mechanisms are identified that shape the species’ response to altered environmental conditions and which should hence be considered when trying to project species’ distribution through time. (ii) I supplement SDM projections of potential future habitat for black grouse in Switzerland with an individual-based population model. By explicitly considering complex interactions between habitat availability and demographic processes, this allows for a more direct assessment of expected population response to environmental change and associated extinction risks. However, predictions were highly variable across simulations emphasising the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. Furthermore, I identify data coverage of the environmental niche as a likely cause for contrasted range predictions between SDM algorithms. SDMs may fail to make reliable predictions for truncated and edge niches, meaning that portions of the niche are not represented in the data or niche edges coincide with data limits. Overall, my thesis contributes to an improved understanding of uncertainty factors in predictions of range dynamics and presents ways how to deal with these. Finally I provide preliminary guidelines for predictive modelling of dynamic species’ response to environmental change, identify key challenges for future research and discuss emerging developments. / Das Vorkommen von Arten wird zunehmend bedroht durch Klima- und Landnutzungswandel. Robuste Vorhersagen der damit verbundenen Arealveränderungen sind ausschlaggebend für die Erarbeitung dynamischer und nachhaltiger Naturschutzstrategien. Habitateignungsmodelle erstellen statistische Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Vorkommen einer Art und relevanten Umweltvariablen und erlauben zügige Einschätzungen potentieller Arealveränderungen. Dabei werden jedoch transiente Dynamiken weitgehend ignoriert sowie demographische Prozesse und biotische Interaktionen. Daher wurden Vorschläge laut, diese statistischen Modelle mit mechanistischeren Ansätzen zu koppeln. In der vorliegenden Arbeit zeige ich zwei verschiedene Möglichkeiten solcher Kopplung auf. (i) Ich beschreibe den sogenannten ‚Virtuellen Ökologen’-Ansatz als mächtiges Validierungswerkzeug, in dem mechanistische Modelle virtuelle Testflächen bieten zur Erforschung verschiedener Probenahmedesigns oder statistischer Methoden sowie spezifischer Fragestellungen. Auch verwende ich diesen Ansatz, um systematisch zu untersuchen wie sich transiente Dynamiken sowie Arteigenschaften und ökologische Prozesse auf die Vorhersagegüte von Habitateignungsmodellen auswirken. So kann ich entscheidende Prozesse identifizieren welche in zukünftigen Modellen Berücksichtigung finden sollten. (ii) Darauf aufbauend koppele ich Vorhersagen von Habitateignungsmodellen mit einem individuen-basierten Populationsmodell, um die Entwicklung des Schweizer Birkhuhnbestandes unter Klimawandel vorherzusagen. Durch die explizite Berücksichtigung der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Habitat und demographischer Prozesse lassen sich direktere Aussagen über Populationsentwicklung und damit verbundener Extinktionsrisiken treffen. Allerdings führen verschiedene Simulationen auch zu hoher Variabilität zwischen Vorhersagen, was die Bedeutung von Sensitivitätsanalysen unterstreicht, um Unsicherheiten und Robustheit von Vorhersagen einzuschätzen. Außerdem identifiziere ich Restriktionen in der Datenabdeckung des Umweltraumes als möglichen Grund für kontrastierende Vorhersagen verschiedener Habitateignungsmodelle. Wenn die Nische einer Art nicht vollständig durch Daten beschrieben ist, kann dies zu unrealistischen Vorhersagen der Art-Habitat-Beziehung führen. Insgesamt trägt meine Arbeit erheblich bei zu einem besseren Verständnis der Auswirkung verschiedenster Unsicherheitsfaktoren auf Vorhersagen von Arealveränderungen und zeigt Wege auf, mit diesen umzugehen. Abschließend erstelle ich einen vorläufigen Leitfaden für Vorhersagemodelle und identifiziere Kernpunkte für weitere Forschung auf diesem Gebiet.

Diss. (sammanfattning). Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv. / Härtill 6 uppsatser.

Cette thèse étudie le Q-processus de certains processus de branchement (superprocessus inhomogènes) ou de recombinaison (processus de Lambda-Fleming-Viot) via une approche généalogique. Dans le premier cas, le Q-processus est défini comme le processus conditionné à la non-extinction, dans le second cas comme le processus conditionné à la non-absorption. Des constructions trajectorielles des Q-processus sont proposées dans les deux cas. Une nouvelle relation entre superprocessus homogènes et processus de Lambda-Fleming-Viot est établie. Enfin, une étude du Q-processus est menée dans le cadre général des processus régénératifs / This work is concerned with the definition and study of the Q-process of some branching processes (inhomogeneous superprocesses) or recombination processes (Lambda-Fleming-Viot process). In the first case, the Q-process is defined as the process conditioned on non-extinction, whereas in the second case, it is defined as the process conditioned on non-absorbtion. A pathwise construction of the Q-process is given in both cases. A link between a class of homogeneous superprocesses and Lambda-Fleming-Viot processes is provided. Last, a study of the Q-process in the more general framework of regenerative processes is performed

In this thesis, I examine variation in occurrence and performance of glabrous and trichome-producing plants of the perennial herb Arabidopsis lyrata. I combine field studies and genetic analysis to (1) examine the function of trichomes as a resistance character in natural populations, (2) compare the magnitude of population differentiation in trichome-production and at putatively neutral marker loci, (3) examine the molecular genetic basis of trichome-production, and (4) quantify the effects of herbivore removal on population growth and relative performance of glabrous and trichome-producing plants. In a survey of 30 populations of A. lyrata in Norway and Sweden, I documented spatiotemporal variation in damage from insect herbivores. With few exceptions, glabrous plants were more damaged by herbivorous insects than trichome-producing plants in polymorphic populations. Damage levels varied substantially among populations and among years. The intensity of herbivory quantified as mean leaf removal to glabrous plants was higher in polymorphic populations than in monomorphic glabrous populations. Within the Swedish range, populations were more strongly differentiated at the locus coding for glabrousness than at eight putatively neutral isozyme loci. This is consistent with the hypothesis that trichome production is subject to divergent selection. A study of the genetic basis of trichome production showed that glabrousness was associated with mutations in an orthologue to GLABROUS1, a regulatory gene known to cause glabrousness in A. thaliana. Comparative data indicate that the genetic basis of glabrousness varies among populations. Experimental removal of insect herbivores in a natural A. lyrata population increased population growth rate and the relative fitness of the glabrous morph. The results suggest that insect herbivory may influence both population dynamics and selection on trichome production in A. lyrata.

Plants can interact with many different organisms on many trophic levels in their life. In this thesis I investigated how three biotic inertactions, powdery mildew infection, caused by Podosphaera ferruginea, predispersal seed predation by Dusky Large Blue (Phengaris nausithous) and Scarce Large Blue (P. teleius) and deer grazing affect life cycle and population biology of the Great Burnet (Sanguisorba officinalis L.). I also analysed their preferences of environmental conditions. Most of studied plant populations growth rates (λ) were lower than 1 and population decreased, but quite surprisingly for more populations vegetative reproduction was more important than reproduction by seeds. All intraction mentioned above affects more generative reproduction, and thus their influence on Great Burnet population dynamics is low, even with modelled maximal possible effect. Environment conditions analysis showed that powdery mildew occurs on sites with more flowering individuals, where spreading is very easy, butterflies preferred high, well noticeable flower heads grown high above other vegetation and host ant presence. For host ants' presence model locality was only significant variable.

Bien que l’anesthésie générale soit un outil indispensable dans la chirurgie médicale d’aujourd’hui, ses mécanismes sous-jacents précis sont encore inconnus. Au cours de la sédation induite par le propofol les actions anesthésiques à l’échelle microscopique du neurone isolé conduisent à des changements spécifiques à l’échelle macroscopique qui sont observables comme les signaux électroencéphalogrammes (EEG). Pour une concentration faible en propofol, ces changements caractéristiques comprennent une augmentation de l’activité dans les bandes de fréquence delta (0.5-4 Hz) et alpha (8 13 Hz) dans la région frontal, une l’activité augmentée de delta et une l’activité diminuée de alpha dans la région occipitale. Dans cette thèse, nous utilisons des modèles de populations neuronales thalamo-corticales basés sur des données expérimentales. Les effets de propofol sur les synapses et sur les récepteurs extra-synaptiques GABAergiques situés dans le cortex et le thalamus sont modélisés afin de comprendre les mécanismes sous-jacents aux changements observés dans certaines puissances de l’EEG spectrale. Il est démontré que les modèles reproduisent bien les spectrales caractéristiques observées expérimentalement. Une des conclusions principales de ce travail est que l’origine des delta rythmes est fondamentalement différente de celle des alpha rythmes. Nos résultats indiquent qu’en fonction des valeurs moyennes des potentiels de l’état du système au repos, une augmentation ou une diminution des fonctions de gain thalamo-corticale résulte respectivement en une augmentation ou une diminution de alpha puissance. En revanche, l’évolution de la delta puissance est plutôt indépendant de l’état du système au repos; l'amélioration de la puissance spectrale de delta bande résulte de l’inhibition GABAergique synaptique ou extra-synaptique pour les fonctions de gain non linéaire à la fois croissante et décroissante. De plus, nous cherchons à identifier les paramètres d’un modèle de thalamo-corticale en ajustant le spectre de puissance de modèle pour les enregistrements EEG. Pour ce faire, nous considérons la tâche de l’estimation des paramètres dans les modèles qui sont décrits par un ensemble d’équations différentielles ordinaires ou bien stochastiques avec retard. Deux études de cas portant sur des données pseudo-expérimentales bruyantes sont d’abord effectuées pour comparer les performances des différentes méthodes d’optimisation. Les résultats de cette élaboration montrent que la méthode utilisée dans cette étude est capable d’estimer avec précision les paramètres indépendants du modèle et cela nous permet d’éviter les coûts de calcul des intégrations numériques. En considérant l’ensemble, les conclusions de cette thèse apportent de nouveaux éclairages sur les mécanismes responsables des changements spécifiques qui sont observées pendant la sédation propofol-induite dans les modèles de EEG. / Although general anaesthesia is an indispensable tool in today’s medical surgery, its precise underlying mechanisms are still unknown. During the propofol-induced sedation, the anaesthetic actions on the microscopic single neuron scale lead to specific changes in macroscopic-scale observables such as electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. For low concentration of propofol these characteristic changes comprised increased activity in the delta (0.5-4 Hz) and alpha (8-13 Hz) frequency bands over the frontal head region, but increased delta and decreased alpha power activity over the occipital region. In this thesis, we employ thalamo-cortical neural population models, and based on the experimental data, the propofol effects on the synaptic and extrasynaptic GABAergic receptors located in the cortex and thalamus are modelized to understand the mechanisms underlying the observed certain changes in EEG-spectral power. It is shown that the models reproduce well the characteristic spectral features observed experimentally. A key finding of this work is that the origin of delta rhythm is fundamentally different from the alpha rhythm. Our results indicate that dependent on the mean potential values of the system resting states, an increase or decrease in the thalamo-cortical gain functions results in an increase or decrease in the alpha power, respectively. In contrast, the evolution of the delta power is rather independent of the system resting states; the enhancement of spectral power in the delta band results from the increased synaptic or extra-synaptic GABAergic inhibition for both increasing and decreasing nonlinear gain functions. Furthermore, we aim to identify the parameters of a thalamo-cortical model by fitting the model power spectrum to the EEG recordings. To this end, we address the task of parameter estimation in the models that are described by a set of stochastic ordinary or delay differential equations. Two case studies dealing with noisy pseudo-experimental data are first carried out to compare the performance of different optimization methods. The results of this elaboration show that the method used in this study is able to accurately estimate the independent model parameters while it allows us to avoid the computational costs of the numerical integrations. Taken together, the findings of this thesis provide new insights into the mechanisms responsible for the specific changes in EEG patterns that are observed during propofol-induced sedation.

A juçara (Euterpe edulis Mart.) é uma palmeira importante ecologicamente e considerada fonte de produtos valiosos culturalmente e economicamente. Há mais de duas décadas tem sido considerada ameaçada de extinção pelo corte de palmito, e atualmente surge uma nova oportunidade para reduzir sua vulnerabilidade por meio da valorização de seus frutos. Nesta pesquisa investigamos se o manejo de juçara para produção de polpa de frutos pode funcionar como catalisador da conservação da biodiversidade e da melhoria dos meios de vida das populações humanas locais. Algumas questões foram elaboradas e organizadas em quatro eixos convergentes a questão central: (I) Quais os principais aspectos socioeconômicos e práticas de manejo de E. edulis para produção de polpa nas áreas de estudo? Qual o potencial da atividade para o fortalecimento local e conservação da espécie? (II) Como varia a composição e a estrutura florestal ao longo de gradientes de manejo e altitude? Quais as espécies vegetais nativas mais valorizadas por estas comunidades locais? (III) Como a produção e a colheita de frutos variam através de diferentes sistemas de manejo ao longo dos anos? Quais os principais fatores que explicam essa variação? (IV) De que maneira o manejo de frutos de juçara afeta sua dinâmica populacional? Qual a taxa máxima sustentável de remoção de frutos? Quais as estratégias de manejo sustentável recomendada para diferentes condições? Para isso, foi realizado o monitoramento de populações de E. edulis em áreas manejadas por quatro populações humanas que habitam o entorno e interior do Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar (PESM), Núcleos Santa Virgínia e Picinguaba, nos municípios de Natividade da Serra e Ubatuba, SP. Também amostramos populações de E. edulis em áreas de proteção integral no interior do PESM, entrevistamos os moradores de cada comunidade local, assim como usamos dados de fontes secundárias sobre a vegetação do PESM e sobre a atividade de manejo da juçara nos últimos anos. Verificamos que existe uma nova possibilidade de trabalho e renda nas comunidades, inclusive para mulheres e jovens, possibilitando diversificação da economia local. As práticas não destrutivas de colheita dos frutos e as características do sistema reprodutivo da espécie não implicam em severas consequências ecológicas adversas, permitindo considerar o potencial de conservação circa situm, principalmente diante as mudanças climáticas e pressão do mercado de palmito. A diversidade arbórea reduziu localmente com o aumento da intensidade de manejo agroflorestal, mas permite a manutenção de espécies arbóreas de interesse para a conservação, além de proporcionar sustento às famílias dos produtores. As práticas de manejo realizadas nos sistemas agroflorestais tradicionais podem favorecer a manutenção do conhecimento ecológico local, além de aumenta a produtividade de frutos e reduzir a variação interanual da frutificação. A colheita de frutos de juçara em si não representa prejuízos em termos populacionais. Sendo o novo manejo de juçara uma das estratégias recomendadas para manter a viabilidade das populações em longo prazo, desde que o corte de palmito seja controlado e a regeneração seja promovida. / Juçara (Euterpe edulis Mart.) is a palm source of various culturally and economically valued products. It has been considered threatened of extinction for more than two decades. The simple opposition between strategies to obtain its different products arises a new opportunity to reduce its vulnerability. In this research we investigated if the management for fruit production could act as a catalyst to biodiversity conservation and local livelihood improvement. Some questions were elaborated and organized into four axes convergent to the central question: (I) How do the management systems of E. edulis for fruit production are characterized at the study area? Which is the activity potential to improve local livelihoods? (II) How does the forest structure and composition vary along management and altitude gradients? What native plant species are most valued by these communities? (III) How do fruit production and harvest vary through different management systems along different years? What are the main factors explaining such variation? (IV) How do juçara management for fruit production affect its population dynamics? What is the maximum sustainable rate of fruit removal? Which sustainable management strategies are recommended for different conditions? We built empirical evidences through monitoring E. edulis populations managed by four local human populations living around and inside Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar (PESM), Nuclei Santa Virgínia and Picinguaba. We also sampled E. edulis populations in strictly protected areas inside PESM, as well as used secondary data about juçara management activities in the last years. The opportunity for work and income, inclusive for women and young people, the stimulus for social organization, production diversification, among other aspects recorded in this study promote community resilience in the face of political and economic change. Juçara fruit harvest allows frugivorous foraging and indicates the potential for in situ and circa situm conservation approach, mainly in the face of climate change and market pressure for palm heart. Arboreal diversity reduced locally with increasing agroforesty management intensity, which in turn raised diversity at the landscape level. Management practices, performed at the traditional agroforestry systems, could strengthen local cognitive systems, enhance fruit productivity and reduce fruiting inter annual variation. Juçara fruit harvest benefits recruitment and could even induce population increase at the long term. Neverheless, other factors affected negatively affected the population negatively. The protection of adult palms for fruit harvest is one of the recommended strategies to keep population viability in the long term and could function as in situ and circa situm conservation strategies.

The aim of this Master's thesis is to describe the past and future demographic development of selected EU countries. The second aim is to utilize methods for multicriteria evaluation of alternatives in the demography. The last aim is to describe methods used to extrapolate mortality curves. The theoretical part describes demographic indicators, methods used to extrapolate mortality curves and computational processes for methods for multicriteria evaluation of alternatives. The practical part includes the computation of demographic indicators and describes the progress of the indicators in the future. The methods for multicriteria evaluation of alternatives are used for ranking selected EU countries according to the demographic indicators. The last part of the thesis includes the application of methods used for extrapolating mortality curves and compares the achieved results with the actual progress.