Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:44:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Paulo de Sa Pereira.pdf: 641021 bytes, checksum: 5b48d843ebfe14352bac73bfbea9cc00 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-05-22 / The objective of this dissertation is a comparative analysis of investing in stock in Brazil compared to investing in government bonds and other reserve securities type of assets, aiming at deciding whether the incurred risk in stock has been rewarded by an increased return compared to investing in more conservative assets. The covered period of analysis is from March 1986 to December 2005. The analysis was made based on Modern Portfolio Theory and the studies were carried out on secondary data on the main financial assets and indicators, namely: the Bovespa index, the Selic rate, Gold, Dollar, Savings Accounts and one inflation indicator, the General Price Index IGP. In order to enhance the comprehension of the subject, throughout the dissertation, the history of the Stock Exchange, the economic environment of the respective economic plans, analysis of the result and a conclusion has been included. Various performed studies points to the fact that investing in stocks, represented by the Bovespa index, and when compared to fixed interest in this case, government securities remunerated according to the Selic had a lower return in spite of the greater risk / O objetivo deste trabalho é a análise dos investimentos em ações no Brasil, comparativamente a investimentos em títulos federais e outros ativos típicos de reserva de valor, procurando estabelecer se o adicional de risco incorrido em ações foi recompensado pelo aumento do retorno quando comparado a ativos mais conservadores. O período de análise está compreendido entre março de 1986 e dezembro de 2005. A fundamentação teórica foi conduzida com base na Moderna Teoria de Portfólios e os estudos foram desenvolvidos com base em dados secundários sobre os principais ativos financeiros e indicadores, a saber: Índice Bovespa, taxa Selic, Ouro, Dólar, Caderneta de Poupança e um indicador de inflação, o Índice Geral de Preços IGP. Para melhor compreensão desse tema, no decorrer desta dissertação, também, foram abordados a história das Bolsas de Valores, o ambiente econômico vigente nos diversos planos econômicos, a análise dos resultados e apresentada a conclusão. Os diversos estudos realizados indicaram que o investimento em ações, representado pelo Índice Bovespa, quando comparado ao de renda fixa no caso, o título público remunerado pela taxa Selic apesar de maior risco, apresentou um retorno inferior ao longo do período pesquisado

One could argue that the most discussed topic in finance is whether or not it is possible to “beat the market”. Even though many people claim to do this, there is little evidence to support the idea that one can consistently beat the market over a long period of time. There are indeed several examples of investors who have managed to outperform the market consistently for a long time, but the efforts of these individuals or institutions could by many be considered to be pure luck. One of the many strategies that have been evaluated by several researchers and is said to generate a risk adjusted return greater than that of the market, is one based on the P/E-effect. This strategy is based on the financial ratio P/E – price divided by earnings – and used by constructing portfolios consisting of stocks with low P/E ratios. Several studies have confirmed the existence of the P/E-effect on various stock markets around the world and over different time periods. On the Swedish market, however, few studies have generated the same results. Most of these studies can be considered to be insufficient with regards to sample sizes and methods, spawning a need for more extensive studies. We have examined the P/E strategy on the Swedish Stock Exchange (SSE) between 2004 and 2012. The sample included 358 companies (excluding financial companies) with available necessary data. The stocks were divided into five portfolios based on their yearly P/E ratios (low to high), upon which the monthly returns of the individual stocks were calculated using a logarithmic formula. The returns were also risk adjusted using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), followed by a regression analysis to see if possible abnormal returns could be considered to be statistically significant for the examined time period. The results of our study indicate that the P/E effect is not present on the Swedish Stock Exchange during the examined time period, and we therefore conclude that it was not possible to utilize a strategy based on the P/E effect between 2004 and 2012 in order to achieve an abnormal return. The results can be used to argue that the Swedish stock market is more efficient than for example the U.S. stock market where the P/E effect has been found to exist.

Previous research has confirmed the existence of a value premium in a wide array of markets and using this value stock anomaly has yielded superior performance. This thesis investigates if one could take advantage of the existence of a value premium to deploy a dynamic investment strategy on the Swedish stock market (OMXS30) with focus on minimizing risk to achieve higher risk adjusted performance than the stock market index. The investment strategy implemented use Market-to-Book-Value to screen for both entry and exit signals and Modern Portfolio Theory, using the minimum-variance portfolio with short-selling constraints, to allocate assets within the portfolio. The investment strategy is evaluated using the Modigliani-Modigliani Risk Adjusted Performance measure. Conclusions from the thesis are that the strategy does outperform the Swedish stock market index, both in terms of nominal return and risk-adjusted performance. The suboptimal behaviour of investors where they overreact  to signals and unconsciously rely on heuristics is used to explain why this is possible. Market-to-Book-Value, using the first quartile as entry signal and third quartile as exit signal, is considered to be a successful key ratio to screen for value stocks.

L'obiettivo della ricerca è evidenziare se l'investimento in beni non finanziari è preso in considerazione dalle private banks operanti in Italia nella costruzione dei portafogli dei loro clienti facoltosi, se nel processo di ottimizzazione siano seguite le logiche della modern portfolio theory e quali modalità vengono adottate nella fase di presentazione delle performance. si procede quindi ad esaminare gli investimenti in oro, in arte, in diamanti, in vino e in immobili per verificarne gli impatti sulla rischiosità e sulle performance di portafoglio. / The goal of this thesis is to verify if private banks that operate in Italy use goods as investment for diversifying HNW or U-HNW individuals portfolio, if they take in consideration the modern portfolio theory for asset allocation and how performances are presented to investors. So it analyses the investment as gold, real estate, art, diamond and wine to achieve the impact of them on portfolio risk and performance.

Baigiamajame magistro darbe nustatomos modernios ir postmodernios portfelio teorijos ypatybės, investicijų portfelio sudarymo ir valdymo teorijos. Sudarant portfelį, akcijų atrankai yra naudojama fundamentalioji ir koreliacinė analizė. Išanalizuoti Skandinavijos šalių: Danijos, Suomijos ir Švedijos makroekonominiai rodikliai, energetikos, medicinos ir informacinių technologijų sektoriai. Iš minėtųjų sektorių pasirinktos didelės ir vidutinės kapitalizacijos įmonių akcijos, kurios papildomai analizuojamos, lyginant įmonių finansinę būklę nusakančius rodiklius. Remiantis atlikta analize atrinktos 5 įmonių akcijos, iš kurių sudaromas investicijų portfelis. Sudarytas investicijų portfelis optimizuojamas ir valdomas. Investicijų portfelis valdomas tris laikotarpius, remiantis pasaulinių akcijų indeksų, akcijų sektorių indeksų ir akcijų kainų kitimo analize. Išnagrinėjus teorinius ir praktinius portfelinio investavimo aspektus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados ir pasiūlymai. Darbą sudaro 6 dalys: įvadas, investicijų analizės ir valdymo teorinės problemos, Skandinavijos šalių makroekonominė ir sektorių analizė, investicijų portfelio sudarymas ir valdymas, išvados ir literatūros sąrašas. / In the final master thesis there are analyzed modern and postmodern portfolio theory featuries, theories of making and controlling investments portfolio. Stock selection is based on fundamental and correlation analyzes. In the second part of the thesis there are analyzed macroeconomic indicators and energetics, medicine, information technologies sectors of the Scandinavian countries, such as Denmark, Finland and Sweden. Large and middle capitalization stocks are selected from these sectors and evaluated again using indicators which describes companies financial statement. 5 stocks are selected based on above-mentioned analyses. The portfolio is made using selected stocks. The next step is portfolio optimization and controling. Investments portfolio is controlled in three periods. Controlling is based on different analyzes: indexes of stocks and sectors, stocks’ prices changes. After considering portfolio investments in all of its aspects in the end of theses it is presented conclusions and appendixes. Structure: introduction, theoretical problems of investments analyses and controlling, Scandinavian countries macroeconomics and sectors analyses, making and controlling investments analyses, conclusions and suggestions, references.

<p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2013. Sammanfattning jämte 3 uppsatser.</p>

Collective investments have become a very popular investment vehicle in South Africa because it is, among other things, transparent, liquid and easily accessible. Growing investor knowledge, good market returns and its suitability for diversification, which minimizes risk, also contributes to its popularity. A value chain that adds value to the investor has developed around the collective investment scheme. The role players in this chain include the investment manager, the management company and financial intermediaries. The growth in this part of the collective investment industry has been so dynamic that regulation and the introduction of various new intermediary layers are constantly affecting the value chain and the value added for the investor. Research was conducted to assess the impact of the value chain on the behaviour of the individual investor and the effect this has on wealth creation. The literary review established that the environment surrounding this dynamic and interdependent value chain is well-regulated and that costs and investor behaviour could have a significant impact on investment returns. The empirical study revealed that the average individual investor recognizes the impact of the value chain on his investment, but perceives himself as being knowledgeable enough to avert ineffectiveness in the chain by ensuring desired investment returns through good investment decisions. Over-diversification and irresponsible switching between funds by the investor can, however, destroy value and negate the effect of long-term returns. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

The thesis deals with modern portfolio theory. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the historical development of portfolio optimization and presents the basic theoretical background of the Markowitz model, the Tobin model and the Capital asset pricing model. In the practical part of the thesis, the models are applied to real data from two Czech securities markets, PSE and RM-S. An optimal portfolios composition is proposed by the three models mentioned above and then the outputs of the models are compared to the real datas from the next period. Finally, the benefits and drawbacks of the used models are evaluated.

Submitted by EDISON AMERICO HUARSAYA TITO (edison.tito@gmail.com) on 2016-06-23T14:02:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 EdisonMscFGV(20160619).pdf: 2366030 bytes, checksum: 231be2cde1e7f8e01331fddff3f227a1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-06-23T14:36:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EdisonMscFGV(20160619).pdf: 2366030 bytes, checksum: 231be2cde1e7f8e01331fddff3f227a1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-06-24T12:51:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EdisonMscFGV(20160619).pdf: 2366030 bytes, checksum: 231be2cde1e7f8e01331fddff3f227a1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-29T12:06:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 EdisonMscFGV(20160619).pdf: 2366030 bytes, checksum: 231be2cde1e7f8e01331fddff3f227a1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-06-03 / This work has the objective to address the problem of asset allocation (portfolio analysis) under a Bayesian perspective. For this it was necessary to review all the theoretical analysis of the classical mean-variance model and following identify their deficiencies that compromise its effectiveness in real cases. Interestingly, its biggest deficiency this not related to the model itself, but by its input data in particular the expected return calculated on historical data. To overcome this deficiency the Bayesian approach (Black-Litterman model) treat the expected return as a random variable and after that builds a priori distribution (based on the CAPM model) and a likelihood distribution (based on market investor’s views) to finally apply Bayes theorem resulting in the posterior distribution. The expected value of the return of this posteriori distribution is to replace the estimated expected return calculated on historical data. The results showed that the Bayesian model presents conservative and intuitive results in relation to the classical model of mean-variance. / Este trabalho tem com objetivo abordar o problema de alocação de ativos (análise de portfólio) sob uma ótica Bayesiana. Para isto foi necessário revisar toda a análise teórica do modelo clássico de média-variância e na sequencia identificar suas deficiências que comprometem sua eficácia em casos reais. Curiosamente, sua maior deficiência não esta relacionado com o próprio modelo e sim pelos seus dados de entrada em especial ao retorno esperado calculado com dados históricos. Para superar esta deficiência a abordagem Bayesiana (modelo de Black-Litterman) trata o retorno esperado como uma variável aleatória e na sequência constrói uma distribuição a priori (baseado no modelo de CAPM) e uma distribuição de verossimilhança (baseado na visão de mercado sob a ótica do investidor) para finalmente aplicar o teorema de Bayes tendo como resultado a distribuição a posteriori. O novo valor esperado do retorno, que emerge da distribuição a posteriori, é que substituirá a estimativa anterior do retorno esperado calculado com dados históricos. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o modelo Bayesiano apresenta resultados conservadores e intuitivos em relação ao modelo clássico de média-variância.

Submitted by Marcio Pintan (mpintan@gmail.com) on 2018-06-25T18:13:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 financas-pintan-dissertação versao final.pdf: 1855884 bytes, checksum: 0ac7f69afc81d4cea8446f01d309fd99 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Mayara Costa de Sousa (mayara.sousa@fgv.br) on 2018-08-13T16:18:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 financas-pintan-dissertação versao final.pdf: 1855884 bytes, checksum: 0ac7f69afc81d4cea8446f01d309fd99 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-08-13T16:25:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 financas-pintan-dissertação versao final.pdf: 1855884 bytes, checksum: 0ac7f69afc81d4cea8446f01d309fd99 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-13T16:25:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 financas-pintan-dissertação versao final.pdf: 1855884 bytes, checksum: 0ac7f69afc81d4cea8446f01d309fd99 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-05-25 / Esta dissertação trata das operações realizadas na BM&F BOVESPA chamadas comumente de 'Day Trading', ou seja, operações cuja compra (ou venda) e a liquidação são realizadas no mesmo dia. Tal questão é relevante, principalmente para o pequeno investidor, por possibilitar a otimização do resultado da sua carteira de investimento ao longo do tempo. O objetivo de pesquisa deste trabalho é apresentar e testar algumas técnicas utilizadas pelos operadores do mercado financeiro na modalidade 'Day Trading'. Em conjunto com a verificação das teorias de análise gráfica, o trabalho pretende conciliar tais técnicas preditivas com teorias de gestão de risco e de gestão de portfólio, nesse caso mais precisamente a teoria moderna de portfólio de Markowitz, de forma a testar a eficiência da combinação entre essas teorias no mercado de ações brasileiro, e se existe a possibilidade de otimização dos resultados que um investidor pode alcançar ao longo do tempo. Para atingir este objetivo foi realizada uma pesquisa quantitativa utilizando técnicas de análise gráfica baseadas em teorias amplamente conhecidas no mercado de capitais, como os Princípios de Ondas de Elliott e a Teoria de Dow. A partir dos indicadores de sucesso obtidos por essas técnicas preditivas (através de 'backtests'), o presente trabalho testa a efetividade das questões relativas a eficiência de mercado apresentadas nas Hipótese de Mercados Eficientes de Fama (1970). As principais conclusões desta dissertação sugerem que uma estratégia passiva, de compra e manutenção do Índice Bovespa, domina respectivamente estratégias baseadas na Teoria de Markowitz e estratégias ativas de Day Trading baseadas em análise técnica. Os resultados trazem uma grande contribuição para o pequeno investidor através de uma maior compreensão sobre possibilidades que as operações de curto prazo podem trazer para ao seu portfólio de investimentos e confirma a visão de que o mercado de ações brasileiro é eficiente em sua forma fraca. / This thesis deals with operations carried out on BM&F BOVESPA commonly called 'Day Trading', which are operations whose purchase (or sale) and settlement are carried out on the same day. This issue is relevant, especially for the small investor, because it allows the optimization of the result of their investment portfolio over time. The objective of this research is to present and test some techniques used by financial market traders in the 'Day Trading' modality. In conjunction with the verification of theories of technical analysis, the paper aims to reconcile such predictive techniques with theories of risk management and portfolio management, in this case more precisely the Modern Portfolio Theory of Markowitz, in order to test the efficiency of the combination between these theories in the Brazilian stock market, and whether there is a possibility of optimizing the results that an investor can achieve over time. To achieve this goal a quantitative research is performed using graphical analysis techniques based on theories widely known in the capital market, such as the Elliott Wave Principle and the Dow Theory. From the indicators of success obtained by these predictive techniques (through backtests), the present research explores aspects of market efficiency presented in the Efficient Market Hypothesis of Fama (1970). The main conclusions of this dissertation suggest that a passive buy and hold strategy of the Bovespa Index dominates respectively strategies based on Markowitz Theory and active day trading strategies based on technical analysis. The results make a contribution to the small investor through a better understanding of the possibilities that short-term operations can bring to their investment portfolios and confirms the view that the Brazilian stock market is efficient in its weak form.