Immunologic monitoring is part of the standard care for patients on antiretroviral treatment. Yet, little is known about the routine implementation of immunologic monitoring in Ethiopia. This study assessed the pattern of immunologic monitoring, immunologic response, level of immunologic treatment failure and factors related to it among patients on antiretroviral therapy in selected hospitals in southern Ethiopia. A retrospective longitudinal analytic study was conducted using documents of patients started on antiretroviral therapy. A total of 1,321 documents of patients reviewed revealed timely immunologic monitoring were inadequate. Despite overall adequate immunologic response, the prevalence of immunologic failure was 11.5% (n=147). Having WHO Stage III/IV of the disease and a higher CD4 (cluster differentiation 4) cell count at baseline were identified as risks for immunologic failure. These findings highlight the magnitude of the problem of immunologic failure. Prioritizing monitoring for high risk patients may help in effective utilisation of meager resources / Health Studies / M. A. (Public Health)

The Financial analysis Crystalex a.s. examines a general financial situation of the company. I use classical methods for financial analysis. The significant part of my project is the application of creditworthy and bankruptcy models. The aim of my thesis is to find out if these models were able to predict the current situation for management in the past.

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For the last ten years, DVD-R media have played an important role in the storage of large amounts of digital data throughout the world. During this time it was assumed that the DVD-R was as long-lasting and stable as its predecessor, the CD-R. Several reports have surfaced over the last few years questioning the DVD-R's ability to maintain many of its claims regarding archival quality life spans. These reports have shown a wide range of longevity between the different brands. While some DVD-Rs may last a while, others may result in an early and unexpected failure. Compounding this problem is the lack of information available for consumers to know the quality of the media they own. While the industry works on devising a standard for labeling the quality of future media, it is currently up to the consumer to pay close attention to their own DVD-R archives and work diligently to prevent data loss. This research shows that through accelerated aging and the use of logistic regression analysis on data collected through periodic monitoring of disc read-back errors it is possible to accurately predict unrecoverable failures in the test discs. This study analyzed various measurements of PIE errors, PIE8 Sum errors, POF errors and jitter data from three areas of the disc: the whole disc, the region of the disc where it first failed as well as the last half of the disc. From this data five unique predictive equations were produced, each with the ability to predict disc failure. In conclusion, the relative value of these equations for end-of-life predictions is discussed.

In den vorliegenden Untersuchungen wurde das Ziel verfolgt die Nutzbarkeit des Milchinhaltsstoffes Laktose als praxistaugliche Managementhilfe zu prüfen. Die Primärdaten stammen aus drei israelischen Hochleistungsherden, über mehrere Laktationen erhoben. Der Parameter Laktosegehalt wurde in der Datenaufbereitung dahingehend geprüft, ob dieser zur Gesundheits- und Leistungsvorhersage ausreicht oder welche zusätzlichen Merkmale für die Verwendung in einem Prognose-Modell von Bedeutung sein könnten. Als leistungs- bzw. gesundheitsrelevante Ereignisse (Events) wurden Brunst, Diarrhoe, Endometritis, Fieber, Infektionen, Klauenerkrankungen, Mastitis, Stress, Stoffwechselstörungen sowie Verletzungen zugeordnet. Die Bewertung der Nützlichkeit einzelner Merkmale für die Prädiktion erfolgte anhand der Erkennungsraten. Zwei- und dreistufige Entscheidungsbäume wurden entwickelt, um diese Events zu identifizieren. Ein einzelnes Merkmal ist oft nicht ausreichend, weshalb verschiedene Kombinationen von Variablen analysiert wurden. Die wichtigste Erkenntnis der vorliegenden Arbeit besteht darin, dass der Abfall der Laktosekonzentration und Laktosemenge immer ein kritisches Ereignis darstellt. Das Hauptziel eines Gesundheitsmonitorings im Milchkuhbestand sollte deshalb darin bestehen, frühzeitig eine Stoffwechselüberlastung "sichtbar" oder "erkennbar" zu machen. Unabhängig davon, welche Erkrankung sich anbahnt, muss das Herdenmanagement darauf hinwirken, die Glukoseversorgungssituation des Einzeltieres zu verbessern. Aus der Analyse für die einzelnen Herden und Laktationen kann grundlegend abgeleitet werden, dass die Ergebnisse der Milchkontrolldaten, die im Zuge der datengestützten Herdenüberwachung erhoben wurden, sich verwenden lassen, um den Leistungs- und Gesundheitsstatus der Kühe im Laktationsverlauf einzuschätzen und zu prognostizieren. Die Verwendung von Informationen zum Laktosegehalt des Gemelks verbesserten in jedem Fall die Erkennungsraten. / The aim of the current studies was to investigate whether the milk ingredient lactose can be used as a practical support management. The primary data comes from three Israeli high-performance herds, collected over several lactations. In the data preparation, the parameter "lactose content" was examined to see whether it is sufficient for a health and performance prediction or whether additional features may be of importance for usage in a forecasting model. Oestrus, diarrhea, endometritis, fever, infections, hoof diseases, mastitis, stress, metabolic disorders, and injuries have been assigned to the performance- and/or health-affecting events. The usefulness of individual features for the prediction was evaluated on the basis of the recognition rates. Thus two- and three-level decision trees have been developed to identify these events. As one single feature is often insufficient, different combinations of variables were analyzed. The most important finding of this study is that the drop in the lactose concentration and lactose quantity always represents a critical event. The main objective of a health monitoring in the dairy herd should therefore be to make a metabolic overload "visible" or "recognisable" at an early stage. Whichever disease begins to take shape, the herd management must work on improving the glucose supply situation of the individual animal. In conclusion from the analysis of the individual herds and lactations it can be inferred that the results of the milk control data collected in the course of the data-based herd monitoring can be used in order to assess and to predict the performance and health status of the cows in the course of lactation. The use of information on the lactose content of the milk improved in any case the recognition rates.

Graduation date: 2006 / Presented on 2005-12-02 / An empirical statistical model is developed that relates the non-tidal motion of the ocean surface currents off the Oregon coast to forecasts of the coastal winds. The empirical statistical model is then used to produce predictions of the surface currents that are evaluated for their agreement with measured currents. Measurements of the ocean surface currents were made at 6 km resolution using Long-Range CODAR SeaSonde high-frequency (HF) surface current mappers and wind forecasts were provided at 12 km resolution by the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. First, the response of the surface currents to wind-forcing measured by five coastal National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) stations was evaluated using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A significant correlation of approximately 0.8 was found between the majority of the variability in the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered surface currents and the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered wind stress measurements. The U and the V components of the measured surface currents were both shown to be forced by the zonal and meridional components of the wind-stress at the NDBC stations. Next, the NAM wind forecasts were tested for agreement with the measurements of the wind at the NDBC stations. Significant correlations of around 0.8 for meridional wind stress and 0.6 for zonal wind stress were found between the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered wind stress measured by the NDBC stations and the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered wind stress forecast by the NAM model. Given the amount of the variance in the winds captured by the NAM model and the response of the ocean surface currents to both components of the wind, bilinear regressions were formed relating the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered NAM forecasts to the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered surface currents. The regressions turned NAM wind forecasts into predictions of the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered surface currents. Calculations of the seasonal cycle in the surface currents, added to these predicted seasonal anomalies, produced a non-tidal estimation of the surface currents that allowed a residual difference to be calculated from recent surface current measurements. The sum of the seasonal anomalies, the seasonal cycle, and the residual formed a prediction of the non-tidal surface currents. The average error in this prediction of the surface currents off the Oregon coast remained less than 4 cm/s out through 48 hours into the future.

La tesi cerca di rispondere alla domanda: 'La libanese intifadha al-Iqtad poteva essere prevista?'. la tesi prima definisce l'evento politico, e. Successivamente esamina le condizioni epistemologiche in base alle quali una predizione del futuro possa essere considerata scientifica. In terzo luogo, propone uno schema di previsione organizzato in funzione del coinvolgimento degli agenti nella creazione della storia umana. Infine, analizza la intifadha al-Iqtad in base allo schema analitico proposto. / The thesis aims to answer the question 'could the Lebanese Intifadha al-Iqtad have been predicted?' In order to do so, it first of all tries to define the political event, in terms of features, dynamic, and outcome. Secondly, it outlines the epistemological assumptions on which a scientific prediction of the future could be based. Thirdly, it puts forward a framework for foreseeing the future organised on different levels and divided into macro-categories. Finally, it analyses the Lebanese Intifadha al-Iqtad according to the proposed framework.

The aim of this thesis was to develop a touchscreen-adapted version of the well established Keystroke-level model, which is a user performance model designed to be a quick and easy way to evaluate user interfaces prior to creating prototypes. A quantitative research method was chosen to measure general execution times for common touchscreen gestures on mobile devices. Over 1000 data points were collected from participants who partook in a observational experiment using a prototype specifically programmed for this study. The results of the thesis involves the analyzed measurements acquired from the experiment, as well as a four important aspect to consider when performing similar experiments, namely: (1) The individual speed of the participants; (2) The participants’ level of expertise; (3) The participants’ methods of performing the gestures; (4) Designing the experiment for medium difficulty. / Målet med denna uppsats var att utveckla en pekskärmsanpassad version av den välkända modellen Keystroke-level model, vilket är en modell som kan användas för att snabbt och enkelt utvärdera gränssnitt utan att behöva utveckla fungerande prototyper. En kvantitativ forskningsmetod användes för att mäta hur lång tid det tar för användare generellt att utföra de vanligaste fingergesterna på mobila pekskärmar. Över 1000 datapunkter samlades in från ett experiment där deltagarna fick använda en prototyp som automatiskt mätte den tid det tog för användarna att utföra de olika fingergesterna. Resultaten av studien består av de mätvärden som räknats ut samt fyra aspekter som är viktiga att ha i beaktning när liknande experiment ska utformas. Dessa är: (1) Varje deltagares individuella hastighet; (2) Deltagarnas pekskärmsvana; (3) Sättet de olika deltagarna utför fingergesterna; (4) Utforma experimentet för att representera en medium svårighetsgrad. / Le but de ce projet fut de créer une version du Keystroke-level model adaptée aux écrans tactiles. Ce modèle de performance utilisateur est une méthode d’évaluation simple et rapide d’interfaces utilisateur avant la création de prototypes. Une étude quantitative fut choisie pour mesurer le temps d’exécution général de mouvements spécifiques effectués sur des écrans tactiles de téléphones. Plus de 1000 points de données furent collectés auprès de participants ayant pris part à une étude observationnelle utilisant un prototype spécialement programmé pour l’occasion. Les résultats de ce projet incluent l’analyse des mesures acquises lors de cette étude ainsi que quatre aspects importants à considérer lors de la réalisation d’études similaires, à savoir: (1) La vitesse individuelle des participants; (2) Le niveau d’habitude d’utilisation d’écrans tactiles des participants; (3) Les méthodes utilisées par les participants lors de la réalisation des mouvements; (4) La conception d’étude pour des mouvements de difficulté dite moyenne.

The focus of this research was to investigate the use of a district created formative benchmark assessment in reading to predict student achievement for 10th-grade students on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) in one county in north central Florida. The purpose of the study was to provide information to high school principals and teachers to better understand how students were performing and learning and to maximize use of the formative district benchmark assessment in order to modify instruction and positively impact student achievement. This study expanded a prior limited study which correlated district benchmark assessment scores to FCAT scores for students in grades three through five in five elementary schools in the targeted county. The high correlations suggested further study. This research focused on secondary reading, specifically in 10th grade where both state and targeted county FCAT scores were low in years preceding this research. Investigated were (a) the district formative assessment in reading as a predictor of FCAT Reading scores, (b) differences in strength of correlation and prediction among student subgroups and between high schools, and (c) any relationships between reading formative assessment scores and Mathematics FCAT scores. An additional focus of this study was to determine best leadership practices in schools where there were the highest correlations between the formative assessment and FCAT Reading scores. Research on best practices was reviewed, and principals were interviewed to determine trends and themes in practice. Tenth grade students in the seven Florida targeted district high schools were included in the study. The findings of the study supported the effective use of formative assessments both in instruction and as predictors of students' performance on the FCAT. The results of the study also showed a significant correlation between performance on the reading formative assessment and performance on FCAT Mathematics. The data indicated no significant differences in the strength of correlation between student subgroups or between the high schools included in the study. Additionally, the practices of effective principals in using formative assessment data to inform instruction, gathered through personal interviews, were documented and described.

<p dir="ltr">For turbocharged engine simulation analysis, manufacturer-provided data are typically used to predict the mass flow and efficiency of the turbine. To create a turbine map, physical tests are performed in labs at various turbine speeds and expansion ratios. These tests can be very expensive and time-consuming. Current testing methods can have limitations that result in errors in the turbine map. As such, only a modest set of data can be generated, all of which have to be interpolated and extrapolated to create a smooth surface that can then be used for simulation analysis.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">The current method used by the manufacturer is a physics-informed polynomial regression model that depends on the Blade Speed Ratio (BSR ) in the polynomial function to model the efficiency and MFP. This method is memory-consuming and provides a lower-than-desired accuracy. This model is decades old and must be updated with new state-of-the-art Machine Learning models to be more competitive. Currently, CTT is facing up to +/-2% error in most turbine maps for efficiency and MFP and the aim is to decrease the error to 0.5% while interpolating the data points in the available region. The current model also extrapolates data to regions where experimental data cannot be measured. Physical tests cannot validate this extrapolation and can only be evaluated using CFD analysis.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">The thesis focuses on investigating different AI techniques to increase the accuracy of the model for interpolation and evaluating the models for extrapolation. The data was made available by CTT. The available data consisted of various turbine parameters including ER, turbine speeds, efficiency, and MFP which were considered significant in turbine modeling. The AI models developed contained the above 4 parameters where ER and turbine speeds are predictors and, efficiency and MFP are the response. Multiple supervised ML models such as SVM, GPR, LMANN, BRANN, and GBPNN were developed and evaluated. From the above 5 ML models, BRANN performed the best achieving an error of 0.5% across multiple turbines for efficiency and MFP. The same model was used to demonstrate extrapolation, where the model gave unreliable predictions. Additional data points were inputted in the training data set at the far end of the testing regions which greatly increased the overall look of the map.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">An additional contribution presented here is to completely predict an expansion ratio line and evaluate with CTT test data points where the model performed with an accuracy of over 95%. Since physical testing in a lab is expensive and time-consuming, another goal of the project was to reduce the number of data points provided for ANN model training. Furthermore, strategically reducing the data points is of utmost importance as some data points play a major role in the training of ANN and can greatly affect the model's overall accuracy. Up to 50% of the data points were removed for training inputs and it was found that BRANN was able to predict a satisfactory turbine map while reducing 20% of the overall data points at various regions.</p>