Esta tese de doutoramento trata da disputa entre o PSDB e o PT nas eleições presidenciais ocorridas no Brasil entre 1994 e 2006. O objetivo principal é identificar quais são as variáveis que estão associadas ao voto nos dois partidos que nos permitem prever com alguma precisão as chances de voto em cada um deles. A análise será procedida com auxílio de bancos de dados representativos dos eleitores brasileiros. São observadas diversas variáveis, classificadas em dois grupos: no primeiro estão as variáveis relacionadas a aspectos de longo prazo que incidem sobre o comportamento eleitoral, as características demográficas, sócio-econômicas e político-ideológicas dos eleitores, no segundo estão as variáveis ligadas diretamente ao processo eleitoral, as avaliações dos governos e dos candidatos. A hipótese mais importante a ser testada é que as variáveis de curto prazo têm impacto muito maior sobre as chances de voto nos partidos do que as variáveis de longo prazo. Isso indica que o contexto eleitoral afeta mais o resultado das eleições presidenciais do que qualquer aspecto estrutural, seja social, econômico ou político. Os resultados obtidos com a utilização de regressões logísticas corroboram a hipótese e apontam para diferenças importantes entre o voto no PSDB e no PT. / This Ph.D. thesis is about the dispute between the PSDB and PT for presidential elections ran in Brazil between 1994 e 2006. Its main objective is to identify the variables linked to votes given for both parties which would lead us to predict under a certain precision degree the chances each one has against other. The analysis is based on relevant databases from brazilian electoral activities. Several variables were observed and separated in two different groups: the first contains the ones related to long term aspects linked to the voters behavior as well as demographics, socio-economic, and political-ideological variables, while the second one contains the variables directly linked to the electoral process, to candidates evaluations and the country issues. The most important hypothesis to be tested is the one of short term variables making a bigger impact over each party vote chance when compared to the long term ones. Considering the hypothesis valuable, this presents the scenary of the electoral context with a bigger effect over presidential election than any other voter structural aspect either social, economic or political. The given result corroborates with the hypothesis and came from logistics regressions, pointing out relevant differences between votes given in favour of PSDB and PT.

Esta dissertação trata do estudo da volatilidade eleitoral nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras no período de 1989 a 2006 na escala dos municípios brasileiros. Foi calculada a volatilidade eleitoral em quatro períodos: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002 e 2002/2006. Os cálculos foram feitos por meio do índice de volatilidade entre blocos de partidos (Bartolini e Mair 1990). A geografia eleitoral da volatilidade eleitoral municipal desses períodos é apresentada através de tabelas e mapas. Os municípios brasileiros são Identificados e classificados em cinco grupos pelo número de vezes em que eles apresentaram taxas altas de volatilidade no período de 1989 a 2006. Por fim é analisada a possível correlação entre essa classificação e algumas variáveis socioeconômicas. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que altas taxas de volatilidade eleitoral durante as eleições presidenciais nos municípios brasileiros estiveram correlacionadas a índices baixos de condição de vida e educacionais. / This dissertation is on the electoral volatility in Brazilian presidential elections between 1989 and 2006 on Brazilian municipalities scale. The electoral volatility of four periods was calculated: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002, and 2002/2006. The calculations were made using the inter-bloc volatility index (Bartolini and Mair, 1990). The electoral geography of municipal electoral volatility is presented through maps and tables. The Brazilian municipalities were identified and classified into five groups according to the incidence of high volatility in the period 1989 to 2006. Finally, there is an analysis of the possible correlation between this classification and some socioeconomic variables. The results indicate that high rates of electoral volatility during presidential elections in Brazilian municipalities were correlated with low rates of education and life condition.

Dans l’espace africain francophone comme ailleurs, les élections présidentielles, potentiellement sources de crise, sont contrôlées par les juridictions constitutionnelles. En se servant des crises électorales comme fil d’Ariane, force est de constater que des liens existent entre ces dernières et les juridictions constitutionnelles. Ainsi, les Cours constitutionnelles se retrouvent parfois à l’origine des crises électorales lorsqu’elles rendent des décisions partiales, en se mettant au service des autorités politiques ayant désigné leurs membres. Cependant, elles peuvent se montrer efficaces lorsque leurs décisions permettent de prévenir des crises électorales en gestation. Toutefois, cette efficacité peut être contrariée. En tout état de cause, lorsque les crises électorales sont manifestes, le juge constitutionnel se retrouve sans aucun doute engagé dans un processus de sortie de crise où sa présence s’avère utile. / In the francophone African area as elsewhere, the presidential elections, potential sources of crisis, are controlled by the constitutional jurisdictions. By using the electoral crises as an Ariadne’s thread, we are forced to admit that there are links joining those crises to the constitutional jurisdictions. Thus, constitutional courts can sometimes be the starting point of electoral crises, especially when they make biased decisions serving the political authorities who have appointed their members. Nevertheless, they can be effective when their decisions are able to prevent future electoral crisis in preparation. However, this efficiency at times happens to be thwarted. In any event, when the electoral crises are evident, the constitutional judge finds himself, without any doubt, involved in a crisis exit process where his presence proves to be useful.

The direct election of the president is political, politological and also constitutional-legal topic which has already accompanied for many years. It appears always in connection with the presidential elections, but also as a part of the parliamentary election campaign. February 2012 interrupted the regularity and direct presidential election was approved. The first direct presidential election was held in January 2013. This term preceded by a long election campaign of candidates, persuading voters and several lawsuits. The first direct presidential election won one of the most probable winners - Miloš Zeman.

The uniqueness of 2012 Presidential election campaign lies in some new trends: for the first time Internet played such an important role in influencing voters. It's not just about traditional official websites of the candidates, but first and foremost about campaigning in blogs and social networks. The opposition, including "off-system" one (which is advocating the overthrow of the ruling elite), was much more active in this field. The Internet space became the scene of this conflict, and we should expect that it would only escalate in the future.

Through a content analysis, the proposed thesis examines instances of social and verbal aggression within the 2016 US presidential primary and general election debates. Previous studies regarding social aggression have shown that its primary use has been to "œget ahead" in competitive and hostile environments. While acts of social and verbal aggression have been analyzed in interpersonal behavior and mediated entertainment scholarship, it has yet to be examined in the political spectrum, where candidates engage in clash to suppress their opponents. The current study argues that analyzing social and verbal aggression in televised political debates will help broaden the concept of political clash and provide foundational material to the study of this behavioral and rhetorical trend in American political communication. Additionally, examining social aggression at the political stage will encourage further research examining voters' attitudes towards similar political discourse and the cognitive effects that social aggression has on audiences.Sampling two debates from each primary debate segment (Republican and Democratic) and general election debates, the study was able to compare results across debate segments, as well as longitudinally within debate segments. The analysis found that aggression increased longitudinally. Although the Republican primary debates featured more aggression than the Democratic debates, forms of social and verbal aggression were very similar between the two. As was expected, the general election debates included more aggression than the two primary debate segments combined. Donald Trump was the greatest perpetrator of aggression among all primary and general election candidates.

In December 2007, Kenya held what by all accounts were historic presidential, parliamentary and local elections which pitted the then President Mwai Kibaki and his Party of National Unity (PNU) against Mr. Raila Odinga, the leader of the Orange Democratic Party (ODM), Mr. Kalonzo Musyoka, head of ODM-Kenya, and six other candidates. There was however, even before the elections were in progress, several indicators of conflict such as pervasive use of inflammatory campaign rhetoric. Within minutes of the Electoral Commission of Kenya’s declaration of President Kibaki's victory, tribe-based rioting and violence broke out across the country. The results announced showed both a rapid disintegration of Odinga’s previously large lead during the tallying of votes, and a 2.5% margin between the two leading candidates. As a result, suspicions of tampering were high, not least because the opposition had won 99 seats to PNU’s 43 at the parliamentary level. / Thesis (LLM (Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa)) -- University of Pretoria, 2010. / A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Law University of Pretoria, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Law (LLM in Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa). Prepared under the supervision of Dr. Paulo Comoane of the Faculty of Law, University of Eduardo Mondlane, Maputo, Mozambique. 2010. / http://www.chr.up.ac.za/ / Centre for Human Rights / LLM

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Yes / Liberia’s 2017 elections represented a watershed moment in the country’s political history. In addition to completing the first democratic transfer of power from one president to another since 1944, it resulted in wide representation across many different parties and independents as well as high levels of legislative turn-overs. Additionally, these polls brought forward unprecedented numbers of party reconfigurations, increased levels of defections, and politicians/parties losing abysmally in presumed ethno-regional bases. In this article, we argue that Liberia currently exists in a post-war arena of “post-party” politics where a profound disregard for parties is the norm, and in which the electorate and politicians alike forum shop for candidates and/or political configurations they presume will deliver the best results at national, sub-national and local levels. Although literature exploring electoral trends in Africa tends to over-emphasize ethno-regionalism as a driver and constraint in the choices of voters and politicians, we demonstrate instead that Liberians make relatively informed, strategic decisions about political alliances and ballot casting thereby subverting allegiances to ethnicity and region. By further eschewing party loyalties, Liberians have gradually become astute forum shoppers in a political marketplace that makes running for office and voting complex undertakings.