The rapid integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) has caused a growing demand for power system flexibility on energy markets all over Europe. Being the only commercially proven large scale energy storage technology, pumped storage hydro power (PSHP) has by several studies been suggested as an efficient solution to miti­gate the impact of IRES. However, despite the perceived technical demand profit­ability remains as a major obstacle for PSHP development. In this study, a market requirement for PSHP profitability, defined in terms of price volatility, is pre­sented. Considering capital and operational expenditures as well as modelled potential price arbitrage revenues for a greenfield PSHP plant, it may be used as a tool for initial assessments of PSHP profitability in relation to market outlooks or modelled future prices. The results have further been used in a case study, where the price volatility required to motivate a restora­tion of the now decommissioned Swedish PSHP plant Juktan has been determined. The results show that the high capital expenditures characterising PSHP development do comprise in a high risk for developers; while feasibility depends on the sustainment of a highly volatile price climate during several decades, energy markets are often extremely uncertain.

Submitted by PAULO SEGATO PEDROSO (paulopedroso_7@hotmail.com) on 2016-03-23T20:33:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação versão final.pdf: 2001669 bytes, checksum: 799d22523c253dcc3bd6985094d4bfd5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Paula Grisoto (grisotoana@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-03-24T18:30:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 pedroso_ps_me_arafcl.pdf: 2001669 bytes, checksum: 799d22523c253dcc3bd6985094d4bfd5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-24T18:30:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 pedroso_ps_me_arafcl.pdf: 2001669 bytes, checksum: 799d22523c253dcc3bd6985094d4bfd5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-25 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A agricultura sempre foi vista como um setor que opera sob normas, leis e teorias diferentes do setor industrial, mas essa diferença foi diminuindo à medida que esses dois setores passaram a se relacionar de forma mais direta acarretando no surgimento do complexo agroindustrial (CAI). Teorias sobre a formação de preço determinam que quanto maior a concentração do setor industrial, maior é o poder que esse setor tem de influenciar o preço, por meio das margens e dos custos. No caso brasileiro há evidências de indústrias mais concentradas, como a agroindústria de laranja, e indústrias menos concentradas, como a agroindústria do leite. Diante deste fato, surge o objetivo principal deste estudo: verificar empiricamente se os setores mais concentrados possuem maior influência no preço. Para alcançar esse objetivo, o presente trabalho contará com uma metodologia baseada no conceito de volatilidade das séries de preços, e com a utilização do filtro Hodrick-Prescott (HP) para separar a tendência de longo prazo da componente cíclica de curto prazo. A hipótese fundamental é de que um setor mais concentrado possui uma série de preço de curto prazo com menor volatilidade, devido a sua maior influência sobre o preço. Serão utilizadas séries de preços médios pagos ao produtor de laranja e do leite, do preço recebido pela agroindústria e dos valores de exportação, assim espera-se observar as possíveis diferenças nos dois casos. / Agriculture has always been seen as an sector that operates under rules, different laws and theories of the industrial sector, but this difference was decreasing as these two sectors began to relate more directly resulting in the emergence of the agroindustrial complex (CAI). Theories of price formation determine that the higher the concentration of industry, the greater the power that this sector has to influence the price, through the margins and costs. In Brazil there is evidence of more concentrated industries such as orange agribusiness, and less concentrated industries such as agribusiness milk. Given this fact, the aim of this study arises: empirically whether the most concentrated sectors have greater influence on price. To achieve this goal, this paper will include a methodology based on the concept of volatility of the price series, and using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to separate the long-term trend of short-term cyclical component. The fundamental assumption is that a more concentrated sector has a short-term price series with lower volatility, due to their greater influence on the price. Will be used series of average prices paid to orange producer and the milk price received by agribusiness and export values, so it is expected to observe the possible differences in the two cases.

過去研究指出，公司管理當局可藉由即時揭露更多攸關資訊以降低市場之資訊不對稱，而管理當局所發布之財務預測亦為揭露資訊之一種。我國證管會於民國八十年五月起正式實施強制性財務預測制度，影響資本市場甚鉅。本研究旨在探討管理當局所發布之財務預測對資本市場資訊不對稱之影響，進而推論我國強制性財務預測制度對於降低資本市場之資訊不對稱是否有其功效。 本研究採用股票交易量、股價變異性及市場深度作為資訊不對稱之代理變數，實證結果顯示： 1.在強制性財務預測制度實施前，自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱顯著較預測發布前降低；然與未發布財務預測公司相較之結果卻顯示，以股票交易量為資訊不對稱之代理變數時，發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱反而顯著較未發布財測者為高。 2.在強制性財務預測制度實施後，強制或自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱程度仍顯著較其發布前降低；而以股價變異性為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果亦顯示，發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱顯著較未發布公司為低。 3.以市場深度為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果顯示，在強制性財務預測制度實施後，發布強制性財務預測之公司，其資訊不對稱於預測發布後顯著降低；此外，與發布自願性財務預測公司相較之結果顯示，發布強制性財測公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱程度不顯著高於發布自願性財務預測者。 / A firm can increase levels of disclosure to lower the information asymmetry. Financial forecast released by managers is also one of information about corporation. Our country began to implement the mandatory financial forecast regulations since May, 1991. This study mainly investigates the association between financial forecast released by companies and the mandatory financial forecast regulations. Furthermore , it also investigates that if the regulations effectively mitigate information asymmetry. This study uses trading volume, price volatility, and market depth as proxies for the information asymmetry. The empirical results show that: 1.Before May, 1991, corporations with voluntary forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. But the information asymmetry (use trading volume as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was not significantly lower than corporations without forecast. 2.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory or voluntary forecast also significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry (use price volatility as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was significantly lower than corporations without forecast. 3.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry (use market depth as a proxy) after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry of corporations after mandatory forecast released was not significantly higher than corporations with voluntary forecast.

This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.

The purpose of this study is to develop an indebtedness framework that explains the effects of financialisation and household indebtedness on economic development. For this purpose, the study empirically examines annual South African data covering the years 1990-2017 to look at the effect of financialisation before and after the 2007/08 financial crisis. South Africa adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy regime in the 1990s before the global economic crisis in response to the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Examining data from 1990-2017 made it possible to look at the effects of financial deregulation policies that were introduced post the 2007-08 financial meltdown. The study addressed three objectives. The first objective sought to establish the extent of financialisation in the South African economy pre and post the 2008 financial crisis. To achieve this objective, annual time series data from 1990-2017 on financialisation variables was split into two, before and after the financial crisis. Graphical presentations of the four financialisation variables (financial deregulation, foreign financial inflows, asset price volatility, and shift to market-based finance) showed that there was a difference in financialisation before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Analysis of variance showed that there is a statistically significant difference between the foreign financial inflows’ series before and after the financial meltdown of 2008 (t-test value -6.527, p ≤ 0.0001). (1990-2008). The findings also showed that there was no statistically significant difference between asset price volatility before and after the financial meltdown of 2008. Interestingly, there is a statistically significant difference between stock market value traded in the period from 1990-2008 and 20092017 after the financial crisis (t = -4.295, p ≤0.001). The second objective sought to examine the causal direction between financialisation and household indebtedness. Contrary to a priori expectations, the findings showed that financial deregulation, foreign financial inflows and shift to market-based finance do not Granger cause indebtedness. However, the findings showed that the null hypothesis that asset price does not Granger cause household indebtedness was rejected. This implies that there is a causal direction between asset price volatility and household indebtedness Lastly, the third objective of this study was to explain the effects of financialisation and indebtedness on economic development to inform the indebtedness framework that this study set out to develop. Using annual data for the period of 1990 to 2017, the third objective was addressed by examining the effect of household indebtedness and financialisation on economic development. These effects were tested using OLS regression and error correction modelling technique (ECM) for each of the four financialisation variable: (1) financial deregulation measured using the financial reform index; (2) foreign financial inflows measured using stock of foreign liabilities as percentage of GDP; (3) asset price volatility; and (4) shift to market-based finance, measured using stock market value traded as percentage of GDP. The findings showed that foreign financial inflows and asset price index when regressed with household indebtedness showed a statistically significant effect on economic development in a long-run model. The indebtedness framework was duly presented showing that economic development is likely to be negatively and strongly affected by financialisation as experienced in asset price volatility and foreign financial inflows. / Graduate School of Business Leadership / D.B.L.

For many financial analysts the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility remains inconclusive. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for JSE-listed firms in South Africa differs from previous, similar research done on different markets. The research study answered the research question and determined what the relationship is between dividend policy and share price volatility for a representative sample of JSE-listed firms. In addition, it met the objective of finding and evaluating the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for a selection of JSElisted firms, under various economic conditions. The research study spanned a 12- year period with more than 1 065 observations noted. Quantitative, secondary data was collected and descriptive statistics were used during the analysis phase. Two standard multiple regression models were used to regress dividend policy and share price volatility, with the first regression model only providing a crude test between the variables. The second regression model accounted for factors that affect both variables and was included to provide a more accurate test estimation. The relationship between the dividend payout ratio and share price volatility and the relationship between dividend yield and share price volatility were evaluated and reported on, under various different economic conditions (pre, during and post the 2008 financial crisis). The study concluded that there is a negative correlation between a firm’s dividend policy and share price volatility. It further found that a firm’s dividend payout ratio, and not the dividend yield ratio, remains the single biggest contributor in explaining the variance in share price volatility throughout the different economic phases presented by pre, during and post the 2008 global financial crisis. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / M. Com. (Financial Management)

This study investigates possible ways of managing commodity price volatility from a purchasing perspective and how the applicability of tools depends on company specific circumstances. Covid-19 has created large disruptions in global supply chains and led to increased price volatility for virtually all commodities. As these negative effects are believed to remain in the near future, and in preparation for future crises, research on managing commodity price volatility becomes important. The subject area also lacks empirical data, as stated by previous researchers, which this study provides. The research has been divided into the three sections: Covid-19 implications, aspects affecting the purchasing approach, and tools available for managing commodity price volatility. Data has been collected through interviews in a multi-case study, where five Swedish industrial companies have been investigated. The results show that the companies are actively managing commodity price volatility but lack background work of explicitly analyzing the exposure to risk from commodity price volatility and creating risk objectives accordingly. The most effective and commonly used tool was escalator clauses, which enables adjusting purchasing price as the commodity price fluctuates. Other common tools were switching supplier, staggering contracts, and passing price, but additional tools were also analyzed and discussed. The conclusion is that there does not exist a best practice for managing commodity price volatility and that the applicability of tools depends on company specific circumstances. / Den här studien har undersökt olika verktyg för att hantera volatila råmaterialspriser utifrån ett inköpsperspektiv. Covid-19 har orsakat stora störningar i försörjningskedjor globalt, vilket lett till ökad volatilitet på råmaterialsmarknaderna. Dessa negativa effekter väntas kvarstå inom en nära framtid, vilket i kombination med potentiella framtida kriser gör forskning på området relevant. Denna studie bidrar även med empirisk data till forskningsområdet, vilket tidigare forskare uttryckligen efterfrågat. Studien är uppdelad i delarna: följder av Covid-19, faktorer som påverkar inköpsstrategien och verktyg som kan användas för att hantera volatila råmaterialspriser. Datan har samlats in genom en flerfallsstudie, där fem svenska industriföretag har deltagit. Resultatet visar att företagen aktivt hanterar prisvolatiliteten, men att de saknar grundarbete i form av att konkretisera vilka råmaterial företagen är exponerade mot och utifrån detta skapa riskmål. Det mest effektiva och vanligast förekommande verktyget var materialklausuler, vilka möjliggör justering av produktpriset baserat på hur råmaterialspriserna fluktuerar. Andra verktyg som också användes av företagen i studien var att byta leverantör eller justera produktionsfördelningen, ha kontraktsperioderna omlott och att föra prisökningar vidare till kunden. Några ytterligare verktyg som användes i mindre utsträckning analyserades och diskuterades också. Studiens slutsats är att det inte finns något optimalt sätt att hantera volatila råmaterialspriser på, utan att verktygens lämplighet beror på varje företags specifika förutsättningar.