Submitted by LIGIA OURIVES (ligia.ourives@gmail.com) on 2013-01-21T01:12:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Ligia Ourives.pdf: 2069192 bytes, checksum: ba3be5c87ab2a4d06b46e964cfd01057 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T13:03:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Ligia Ourives.pdf: 2069192 bytes, checksum: ba3be5c87ab2a4d06b46e964cfd01057 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T13:03:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Ligia Ourives.pdf: 2069192 bytes, checksum: ba3be5c87ab2a4d06b46e964cfd01057 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-04-01 / Este trabalho trata do impacto da dívida pública sobre o crescimento econômico utilizando conjunto de dados de painel para o período de 1990 a 2000 nos países da América Latina e Caribe, e considerando técnicas de método GMM para painéis dinâmicos. De acordo com os resultados de nossas estimações, a dívida pública dos países influencia negativamente o crescimento econômico, enquanto o desenvolvimento do mercado de títulos públicos apresenta efeito contrário. / This paper deals with the impact of public debt on economic growth using a panel data set for the period 1990-2000 in Latin America and the Caribbean and considering recent generalized-method-of moments techniques developed for dynamic panels. We find that public debt negatively influence economic growth, while the development of the public bond market does the opposite.

[pt] Esta dissertação visa encontrar os determinantes da duração da dívida pública brasileira no período pós-Real. Primeiramente, discutem-se os modelos de gestão de dívida pública existentes na literatura e em que medida as considerações dos mesmos se aplicam à gestão da maturidade (particularmente, da duração) da dívida pública brasileira no período estudado. A seguir, apresenta-se uma análise da gestão da dívida, em termos da evolução do tamanho, composição e denominação e maturidade da mesma. É realizado um exercício de decomposição da dívida, a partir do qual se verifica que o principal responsável pelo aumento da Dívida Mobiliária Federal de R$ 57.632 milhões em julho de 1994 para R$ 600.018 milhões em dezembro de 2002 é a parcela de juros, o que é reflexo de questões estruturais. É importante estudar a evolução do tamanho e da composição da dívida devido à sua influência sobre a escolha da maturidade. Finalmente, realiza-se um estudo empírico dos determinantes da duração da dívida pública brasileira no período de agosto de 1996 a dezembro de 2002, em que se mostra que quanto maiores forem o tamanho da dívida pública (medido pela razão dívida-PIB) e a Necessidade de Financiamento do Setor Público (NFSP), menor será a duração da mesma. / [en] This dissertation aims to find out the determinants of Brazilian public debt duration after the Real Plan. First, one discusses the models of public debt management and to what extent they can be applied to the evolution of Brazilian duration in the period studied. Then, an analysis of Brazilian public debt management is made, concerning debt´s size, composition, denomination and maturity. In a decomposition exercise, it can be verified that the main factor responsible for the enormous growth of the Federal Bonded Debt are interest payments, which are consequence of structural questions. The reason to study debt´s size and composition is due to their influence in terms of maturity. Finally, an empirical study is conducted evaluating the determinants of Brazilian public debt duration from August 1996 to December 2002. The results show that the higher is debt´s size (measured by the ratio debt/GDP) and the PSBR (Public Sector Borrowing Requirements), the lower is the duration.

This dissertation comprises three essays that examine critical aspects of fiscal policy and explores important determinants of tax compliance in a developing country context. The first essay examines the fiscal response to changes in debt-to-GDP for a panel of developing countries. Our empirical strategy adopts a dynamic difference generalized methods of moments (DGMM) model with forward orthogonal deviation. We find a positive and significant response for the primary balance and ‘fiscal effort’ to changes in debt-to-GDP. For the fiscal components, we find a positive relationship between debt-to-GDP and general and tax revenues, and a negative relationship with primary spending. We also find evidence of nonlinearities, with countries making larger increases in the primary balance and fiscal effort at higher levels of debt, largely driven by increases in revenues. Higher income countries demonstrate a greater propensity to adjust along the revenue margins, compared to lower income countries. This might be indicative of systemic revenue mobilization challenges facing the latter. The second essay examines the effect of the provision of taxpayer services on filing and payment of the corporate income tax (CIT) and general consumption tax (GCT) for large taxpayers in Jamaica. We use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) that exploits an exogenous jump in the intensity of taxpayer service delivery, which occurs when a taxpayer reaches gross receipts of J$500 million (US$5.7 million) and is selected into the large taxpayer office (LTO). The results indicate null effects for the CIT but positive filing and payment compliance effects for the GCT. The contrasting results for the CIT and GCT may be due to the relatively weaker legal enforcement framework of the former. The results provide suggestive evidence of a complementarity between the strength of the legal enforcement framework of the taxing regime and the provision of taxpayer services. In the third essay we implement public goods messaging experiments to examine the effects on personal income tax (PIT) compliance among self-employed individuals in Jamaica. In the first sub-experiment we examine the effect of the standard public goods message on payment of quarterly PIT obligations. In the second sub-experiment we focus on payment of PIT arrears and expand the message context to include a variant of the standard public goods message – which provides additional information on actual spending on key public goods and services. The compliance outcomes in sub-experiment two relate to established PIT delinquencies, compared to sub-experiment one where there is no legal obligation to comply. We find that the standard public goods message had no effect on compliance with quarterly PIT payments in sub-experiment one. However results from sub-experiment two indicate positive compliance effects from the standard and augmented public goods messages on the probability of making a payment and the amount of PIT arrears paid after nineteen weeks. Point estimates from the standard and augmented public goods messages are not statistically different for any of the outcomes examined; suggesting that additional information on public spending allocations does not matter.

La thèse se concentre sur la problématique très actuelle des déséquilibres macroéconomiques à laquelle on rattache l'existence des déficits jumeaux. La méthode innovante basée sur la métrique des distances, inspirée par la théorie des espaces métriques, permet de mettre en évidence les sources des divergences macroéconomiques qui sont, dans notre cas d'étude, la balance courante et l'endettement. Ces facteurs sont à la source de la divergence macroéconomique dans le monde ainsi qu'en Europe, ce qui souligne l'importance de l'analyse des déficits jumeaux. L'analyse dite de « text-mining », l'analyse du contenu des articles scientifiques sur les déficits jumeaux et leur classement révèlent la prédominance dans la recherche actuelle de l'approche théorique du modèle de Mundell-Fleming et de l'équivalence Ricardienne, qui sont confirmées notamment dans les pays développés. La validité de l'hypothèse des déficits jumeaux pour 14 pays de l'UE-15 dans le contexte de l'endettement public important est testée par l'estimation du modèle à effet de seuil des données de panel. Le modèle permet de conclure que l'hypothèse des déficits jumeaux est confirmée uniquement lorsque la dette publique se trouve dans l'intervalle de 40.2% à 96.6% du PIB. L'équivalence Ricardienne est valide dans le régime de la dette publique supérieure à 96.6% (le modèle à effet de seuil) ou bien 93% (le modèle dynamique qui explique l'impact asymétrique de la dette publique sur la croissance économique) du PIB. Ici, un déficit ne provoque pas l'autre; toutefois, l'efficacité de la politique budgétaire expansionniste pour rétablir la croissance économique est limitée. / The thesis presents highly topical macroeconomic imbalances problem and the related twin deficit phenomenon. Innovative distance-based methodology inspired by an algebraic term of the metric space allows to identify sources of the macroeconomic divergence, which are, in our case, the current account and the indebtedness. These factors are responsible for macroeconomic divergence in the world as well as in Europe, which suggests an importance of the twin deficit analysis. Text-mining, analysis of the content and systematic classification of the scientific papers on twin deficits reveal a dominance of the Mundell-Fleming approach and the Ricardian equivalence, confirmed mainly in developed countries. Twin deficit hypothesis in 14 countries of the EU15 in the context of the important public debt is tested by panel data threshold model. The model confirms twin deficit hypothesis only if a public debt-to-GDP ratio is of the range from 40.2% to 96.6%. The Ricardian equivalence is valid in the regime of the public debt-to-GDP higher than 96.6% (threshold model) or 93% (dynamic model explaining an asymmetric impact of the public debt on economic growth). One deficit does not deepen the second one, but efficiency of the expansionary fiscal policy to reestablish an economic growth is importantly reduced at this indebtedness level.

The theses deals with the austrian public debt. The theoretical part gives a view into basic terms and problematic of public finance. The theoretical terms are applicated on the probletic of public finace of Austria. There is a comparison of accomplishment of nominal convergence criteria within the members of the European Union. The history of austrian economic policy since the 20. century is described. The theses then deals with the prediction of the economic development and growth. It is described, which economic impacts on austrian public finace this could have in the following period.

The first goal of this thesis is to reveal main causes of increasing public debts of the Czech Republic and Hungary. The results of that analysis should show us whether the both countries differ in such causes or not and if there is a chance that the Czech Republic's public finance system could be in danger, as it happened in Hungary in 2008. At the beginning, we suppose that there are no important differences in those causes and that the main reason for the increasing public debts are long-term budget deficits which are of structural character. That means that those structural deficits are formed on purpose, by irresponsible fiscal policy. The other goal of this thesis is to analyse the most important factors which cause the long-term structural deficits in the Czech Republic, and to suggest some steps which would help to stop the further creation of those deficits.

The thesis deals with the issue of the increasing public debt of the United States. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the structure and hitory of US national debt and its impact on the selected investment instruments development. Theoretical introduction is followed by analysis of the causes of the so high public debt of the United States. The analysis is based on the structure and public debt history. The final part of the thesis deals with the question how the high national US public debt affects the behaviour of the foreign investors.

The thesis takes a look at the reforms of the current Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe and his Cabinet, specifically it evaluates the impact of the second arrow of Abenomics on the sustainability of the critical state of public debt of Japan.

The subject of this diploma work is to analyze proposals of fiscal consolidations in the Czech Republic and their following implementation in the years of 2002 to 2012. This work is trying to answer a question whether these proposals of the fiscal consolidaions were elaborated in agreement with research conclusions in the given field and whether they were successful in the sense of reduction of a deficit of the public budgets and public debt. In the first part of this work recent empirical studies with the following recomendations in the terms of realization of a fiscal consolidation are presented. Subsequently, a theoretical background in the form of keynesian and, so called, non-keynesian (expansionary fiscal consolidation hypothesis) effects of consolidation on economy is discussed. In the second part of this work an analysis of the proposals and implementation of the fiscal consolidations in the Czech Republic are presented with an attention to the evolution of the public budgets deficits and the public debt dynamic. The work uses, so called, narrative approach which is based on a study of open public documents from the archives of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, Parliament of the Czech Republic and the Czech National Bank. In the conclusions of this analysis it is stated that not a single implemented fiscal consolidation was successful in the terms of a reduction of the public budgets deficits and the public debt.

The thesis is providing us with evolution of public debt in European Union, focused on situation of the Slovak Republic. It was written in a period, when issue of deficit funding became one of the most frequent topics all over the world. Finding reasons of indebtedness and summarizing cases which should be warning for policy makers is one of the main tasks. Thesis is also describing actions and interventions of European institutions, which resulted to higher debt. Analysis of public debt in Slovak republic is focused on structure of debt in local and central scope in compliance with several criteria. Thesis is evaluating position of Slovak Republic compared with other European countries and analyzing data according to key economic thought to forecast possibilities of future evolution.