This thesis is divided into three parts. The first one evaluates the institution of compulsory vote, providing new estimates for the effects of the obligation to vote on individuals. The identification strategy relies on the Brazilian dual voting system - voluntary and compulsory - the exposure being determined by the date of birth. Using RD and IV approaches and data from a self-collected survey, we find that the compulsory legislation leads to a significant increase in voter turnout. These changes are followed by a sizable increase in the probability that individuals will express preference for a political party, but not by an increase in political knowledge among the population. Moreover, we find that the first compulsory voting experience permanently affects individuals\' preferences. The second part of the thesis empirically analyses episodes of sovereign debt default. Some of the salient features of the theoretical literature on sovereign debt, including its prediction that almost all defaults should arise in \"Bad Times\", are at odds with the data: over 38% of defaults actually occur in \"Good Times\", as measured by an HP filter. We explore the specific characteristics of each type of default and present econometric evidence that failures to repay foreign debt in good times can, usually, be rationalized by three components: (i) changes in the political environment, (ii) hikes in global interest rates and (iii) instances in which good HP times actually take place under quite poor economic conditions. We also present some suggestive indications that the duration of the episodes does not vary substantially with the type of default that precedes them, but with the environment in which they occur, drawing some important implications for the understanding of economies\' post-default market access. The third part of the thesis looks at the issue of campaign contributions in exchange for political favors (the so called \"pay-to-play\" scheme). I proposes a simple game to model the incentives of political parties and firms from public-revenue-intensive sectors, and test the implications of this model using data on campaign contributions and public contracts from Brazil. The data confirms the pay-to-play hypothesis. / Esta tese se divide em três partes. A primeira parte avalia a instituição do voto compulsório, proporcionando novas estimativas para os efeitos da obrigação de votar sobre os indivíduos. A estratégia de identificação se baseia no sistema dual em vigor no Brasil - voluntário e compulsório - sendo a exposição determinada pela data de nascimento. Usando as metodologias de RD e VI, e dados de uma pesquisa coletada especificamente para este estudo, concluímos que esta legislação leva a um aumento significante na participação política através do voto. Este aumento é acompanhado por uma elevação considerável na probabilidade de os cidadãos expressarem preferência por um partido político, mas não no seu nível de conhecimento sobre política. Além disto, concluímos que a primeira experiência de voto afeta permanentemente as preferências dos indivíduos. A segunda parte da tese analisa empiricamente episódios de calote da dívida soberana. Alguns dos aspectos fundamentais da literatura teórica sobre o assunto, incluindo a previsão de que quase todos os calotes deveriam ocorrer em \"Períodos Ruins\", não são confirmados pelos dados: mais de 38% dos calotes ocorrem em \"Períodos Bons\", sob a definição do filtro HP. Exploramos as características de cada tipo de calote e apresentamos evidência econométrica de que calotes na dívida externa em períodos bons em geral podem ser explicados por três componentes: (i) mudanças no ambiente político, (ii) aumentos nas taxas de juros internacionais e (iii) instâncias em que o filtro HP classifica um período como bom ainda que a real situação econômica seja bastante negativa. Por fim, apresentamos alguns resultados que sugerem que a duração do episódio de calote não depende substancialmente do tipo de calote em questão, mas sim do ambiente em que o calote ocorre. Tal resultado abre caminho para novas pesquisas sobre o acesso a mercados internacionais de crédito após calotes. A terceira parte da tese trata da questão de contribuições de campanha em troca de favores políticos (esquema conhecido como \"pay-to-play\"). Eu proponho um jogo simples para modelar os incentivos de partidos políticos e firmas de setores intensos em receitas públicas, e testo as implicações deste modelo usando dados de doações de campanhas e contratos públicos do Brasil. Os dados confirmam a hipótese de pay-to-play.

This master thesis deals with the assessment of fiscal policy in the Czech Republic, Slovak Republic and the United States. The goal of this work is to evaluate the effect of fiscal expansion on the real economy and the country's debt. The first part deals with the theoretical definition of fiscal policy. The next section describes the main macroeconomic indicators of selected countries. The final section is devoted to assessing the effectiveness of specific fiscal stimulus and evaluating their impact on unemployment, the growth rate of GDP and public debt.

The thesis deals with the internal economic equilibrium of the EU member states between 2007 and 2010. In this period, which was considerably influenced by the global economic recession, a sharp deterioration in public finances and other macroeconomic indicators is apparent. The theoretical part of the thesis deals with the starting points and putting the issue of public finances. The practical part is dedicated to the development and comparison of basic indicators of internal economic balance across the member countries, especially to the depth and dynamics of the public debt. In the final part, attention is paid to the prospects of development in this field at European Union level and at the level of national states.

Les effets entraînés par la mondialisation ont affecté tous les pays, notamment les pays en voie de développement. La libéralisation financière rapide des PED sans mise en place d’une règlementation cohérente et d’une supervision bancaire adéquate, a été une cause importante des crises financières observées dans les économies émergentes au cours des trois dernières décennies. D’abord, nous analysons l’impact de la globalisation financière sur la croissance dans les pays en développement, leur degré d’intégration et sa répercussion sur la croissance et la volatilité macroéconomique des PED. Dans la deuxième partie nous étudions la crise asiatique de 1997 et nous analysons les facteurs explicatifs de l’augmentation de l’endettement et spécifiquement de la dette publique dans les pays asiatiques. Bien que chacun des pays asiatiques ait eu une structure économique différente et, par conséquent, ait pris différentes mesures économiques pour faire face à la crise, l'un des facteurs communs était la dépréciation de la monnaie et l’effondrement des marchés boursiers. Enfin, nous pouvons constater que les réformes ont apporté des améliorations significatives mais il se peut qu’elles ne parviennent pas à protéger les économies de la région contre un choc extérieur futur. / Globalization has an impact on all countries, especially on developing countries which liberalised their financial markets without implementing a prudential regulation and adequate supervision. In this context, weak prudential regulation and institutions created substantial vulnerabilities in various developing countries, which was a major cause of observed financial crises in emerging economies over the past three decades. At first, we analyze the impact of financial globalization on growth in developing countries, their degree of integration and its impact on growth and macroeconomic volatility in these countries. In the second part of this text, we discuss the Asian crisis of 1997 and analyze the factors explaining the increase of indebtedness, specifically the public debt in the Asian countries, and the measures taken by the different countries to overcome the crisis. Although each of the Asian countries had a different economic structure and, therefore, had taken various economic measures to cope with the crisis, they had one common factor: the depreciation of the currencies and the collapse of the stock exchange markets. Therefore, we can acknowledge that the reforms were led successfully, but they may fail to protect the economies of the region against a future external shock.

This dissertation comprises two essays. The first essay explores how the size of government, as measured by the level of spending, affects growth. Theoretical models suggest a nonlinear relationship; however, testing this hypothesis empirically in cross-country studies is complicated by the endogeneity of government spending and the accurate identification of turning points. This paper examines the nonlinear hypothesis by incorporating threshold analysis in a cross-country growth regression. Using a broad panel of countries over the period 1971-2005, the results show evidence in favor of a nonlinear effect, but not of the form predicted by theory. When total government spending is low, there is no statistically significant effect on economic growth. However, after passing a certain threshold government spending exhibits a negative effect on growth. The second essay develops a dynamic macroeconomic model to explore how variations in the composition and financing of government expenditures affect economic growth in the long-run. The model is used to analyze how public investment spending funded by taxes or borrowing affects long-term output growth. The model is calibrated to reflect economic conditions in the seven largest Latin American economies during the period 1990 to 2008. We find that, where tax rates are not already high, funding public investment by raising taxes may increase long-run growth. If existing tax rates are high, then public investment is only growth-enhancing if funded by restructuring the composition of public spending. Interestingly, using debt to finance new public investment compromises growth, regardless of the initial fiscal condition.

Baigiamajame magistro darbe pateikiama bendra valstybės skolos samprata ir klasifikacija. Darbe išanalizuoti ir susisteminti įvairių Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių teoriniai valstybės skolos struktūros kitimo bei poveikio ekonomikai tyrimai, atlikta Lietuvos Respublikos norminių aktų, reglamentuojančių Lietuvos valstybės skolą, analizė. Šiame darbe atlikta 1996 – 2010 m. Lietuvos valstybės skolos dinaminė ir struktūrinė analizė. Taip pat ištirtas ryšys tarp Lietuvos valstybės skolos ir biudžeto deficito, palūkanų normos, infliacijos lygio, bendrojo vidaus produkto ir kitų. Darbe iš dalies patvirtinama autorių suformuluota mokslinio tyrimo hipotezė, kad valstybės skola įtakoja šalies ekonomiką. / This master‘s final paper presents general overview of public debt conception and classification. It analyzes and systemizes theoretical and practical research into public debt structure range and influence on economics conducted by various Lithuanian and foreign authors, it also present an analysis of legal acts of the Republic of Lithuania that regulate the public debt of Lithuania. It analyzes Lithuanian public debt dynamic and structure in 1996 - 2010. The paper also examines relationships between Lithuanian public debt and budget deficit, rate of interest, inflationary level, GDP and others. The work approves the authors formulated research hypothesis that public debt influence national economy.

This dissertation consists of five separate essays (and a short introductory chapter) that analyze the effects of debt policy on private consumption. Essay 1: Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence. The Ricardian equivalence theorem has been widely debated since (at least) the seventies. The theorem states that households should not change their consumption path in response to changed timing of taxes, given the path of government consumption. In this essay, theoretical models giving rise to the equivalence result as well as models predicting deviations from debt neutrality are presented. In general, the Ricardian models are based on unrealistic assumptions, such as infinite horizons, perfect capital markets and lump-sum taxes. The issue of Ricardian equivalence is thus perhaps better viewed as a question concerning to what extent the equivalence hypothesis is a reasonable approximation of the real world. This could only be established by empirical studies. To formulate a test of Ricardian equivalence, it is however vital to extend the standard analysis in deterministic models to stochastic models. In a stochastic model we need to incorporate the fact that agents have to make predictions about future levels of government consumption, and that public debt might be a useful predictor for that purpose. It is therefore necessary that an empirical study distinguishes between debt as a potential source of net wealth, which is the concern of the equivalence proposition, and debt's role as a signal of future levels of government consumption, which is due to the stochastic nature of the world. It is argued that there are few empirical studies that make this distinction, and in case the distinction is made, the evidence is in favor of the Ricardian equivalence proposition, namely that public debt is not net wealth to households. Changing the timing of taxes will therefore not change private consumption. In other words, although the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is burdened with unrealistic assumptions, it seems (historically) to provide a reasonable approximation of actual data. Essay 2: An Investigation of Ricardian Equivalence in a Common Trends Model. A common trends model for gross national income, private consumption, government consumption and net taxes is estimated on US data. The system has two cointegrating vectors and thus two common stochastic trends, interpreted as a technology trend and a public sector trend. The two temporary shocks are interpreted as a private demand and government financing shock, respectively. Theoretical models suggest that the two cointegrating vectors could be due to the private and public sectors' intertemporal budget constraints. We find two co-integrating vectors, as predicted by no-Ponzi game constraints on the sectors. However, a stronger version of the no-Ponzi game constraint is a solvency condition, which implies particular co-integrating vectors. These cointegration vectors are both rejected for the sample period, indicating that the public sector will not be able to repay its debt if the current policy is maintained. However, the private sector is at the same time accumulating wealth, which is consistent with predictions from a Ricardian model. Further, the equivalence theorem predicts that private consumption should be unaffected by financing shocks. Data, however, indicate that there is a significant short run effect on both income and private consumption from the financing shock, but the effect indicates that increasing taxes is accompanied by increasing private consumption, contrary to both standard Ricardian and Keynesian models. In the theoretical world, this type of pattern could be generated in models with risk averse individuals and uncertainty about future taxes. Essay 3: Risky Taxes, Budget Balance Preserving Spreads and Precautionary Savings. This essay analyzes the effects on consumption from changes in the riskiness of taxes. It starts by reinterpreting the Sandmo [1970] paper on general capital income risk to the case of risky capital taxation. In his framework the concept of a mean preserving spread (MPS) is used for the risk analysis. In connection with risky taxes it is however possible to explicitly connect the tax risk with the government's budget constraint. In this essay the concept of a budget balance preserving spread (BBPS) is developed and used for the analysis of stochastic taxes. The essay is concluded with a comparison of the effects that a MPS and a BBPS has on consumption decisions. It is shown that the comparative statics results for a BBPS could be different from the results obtained with a MPS. Essay 4: Budget Deficits, Tax Risk and Consumption. This essay analyzes the effects of budget deficits on consumption when individual taxes are stochastic. It is shown that the co-movements between budget deficits and private consumption will depend on how risk averse individuals are. In the case of lump-sum taxes, it is sufficient to assume that individuals have a precautionary savings motive to obtain the result that consumption today will decrease with increased disposable income today. Furthermore, if we use a time separable iso-elastic utility funcition, the standard analysis of capital income risk predicts (precautionary) savings to increase with increased risk if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is greater than one. This is no longer sufficient when the risk is due to uncertain capital income taxes. In general, the coefficient must be greater than one to obtain precautionary savings in response to the greater risk implied by a budget deficit. The results in the paper are consistent with Ricardian equivalence only for some specific utility function, but not in general. However, in the same way, the results are consistent with standard Keynesian models that display a positive relation between debt and private consumption only for certain utility functions, and could equally well generate the opposite result for individuals that are enough risk averse or prudent, without changing the expected value of government consumption. In other words, if future taxes are uncertain, increased disposable income in the present period will decrease present consumption, if households are prudent enough. Essay 5: Budget Deficits, Stochastic Population Size and Consumption. This paper analyzes the effects on present consumption of budget deficits under different assumptions regarding demographics. In the first part, birth and death rates are deterministic, and in the second part, birth rates are assumed to be stochastic. In the case of a deterministic population size, an increase in public debt raises present consumption, if the (deterministic) birth rate is greater than zero, while with a zero birth rate we obtain debt neutrality. This is consistent with the results in Blanchard [1985] and Buiter [1988]. However, for the case of stochastic birth rates, it is shown that we can obtain the result that present consumption will decrease when public debt is increased, both when we have a zero expected birth rate, and when the expected population size is assumed to be constant, so that the expected birth rate is positive and equal to the death rate. The explanation is that with an uncertain birth rate, the future tax base is uncertain, which makes per capita taxes uncertain in the future. Shifting taxes to the future thus implies greater uncertainty about future net income, and induces precautionary savings. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

A Selic, uma das mais elevadas taxas básicas de juros do mundo, tem sido utilizada pelo Governo Brasileiro com o intuído de controlar a inflação. No entanto, tal mecanismo tem gerado importantes impactos na economia brasileira, principalmente sobre os outros agregados macroeconômicos, como a dívida pública, as exportações, os investimentos e o câmbio. O presente trabalho pretende explicar como os elevados índices da Taxa Selic, enquanto mecanismo de controle da inflação, tem repercutido na economia brasileira, mostrando seus impactos sobre os agregados macroeconômicos acima mencionados. Em um primeiro momento são analisados as funções e determinações dos juros para duas escolas de pensamento econômico, a keynesiana e a monetarista. Posteriormente, será estudada a composição e a estrutura do Sistema Financeiro Brasileiro e a taxa de juros básica (SELIC), ressaltando alguns de seus impactos. No capítulo seguinte, será feita uma breve análise da dívida pública brasileira, considerando seu caráter externo até meados da década de 1990 e a mudança para o caráter interno, após esse período. Nesse momento, buscar-se-á explicar como ocorreu essa alteração de importância do alto endividamento externo em relação ao PIB em um primeiro momento, para um alto endividamento interno, expresso na dívida mobiliária federal. Em uma última análise, algumas soluções serão propostas, almejando minimizar os efeitos negativos da política de juros sobre a dívida pública. / The SELIC, one of the highest interest rates of the world has been used for the Brazilian Government with the goal to keep the control of the inflation. However, such mechanism has generated important impacts in the Brazilian Economy, mainly on another macroeconomics agregates as public debt, exports, investments and exchange. The present work wants explain how the highest SELIC rates, like a inflation mechanism control has influenced in Brazilian Economy showing the impacts over the macroeconomic agregates mentioned above. In a first moment will be describe the interest function and determinations for two schools of economic thought the Keynesianism and Monetarism. Later will be analized the composition and structure of the Brazilian Financial System and the interest rate (SELIC) detaching some of the impacts. In the next chapter, a brief analisys of the Brazilian public debt, considering the external caracter until the midle of the years 1990 and the change to a domestic caracter after this period. At this moment, it will be explaining how this change of importance has been occured from the highest extern debt, as a GDP proportion, in a first moment, to the highest domestic public debt composed mainly of federal movable debt. At the least, some alternative solution will be proposed, looking for minimize the effects of the interest rates over the public debt.

O aumento da participação dos títulos públicos pré-fixados no total da dívida pública sempre foi um objetivo perseguido pelas autoridades brasileiras. No entanto, isto só foi possível durante os primeiros anos do Plano Real. Muitos trabalhos empíricos foram realizados recentemente com o intuito de testar alguns pressupostos da teoria de leilões, porém, Silva (2002) foi o único trabalho realizado usando o Brasil como exemplo. O presente trabalho utiliza estatísticas mais confiáveis que Silva (2002), além de realizar testes empíricos relacionando o mercado primário de títulos públicos ao mercado secundário. A principal conclusão a que chegamos é que nos leilões de títulos públicos préfixados os pressupostos teóricos não são válidos, podendo ser fruto da pequena liquidez presente no mercado primário. / The increase of the share of fixed-rate bills in the public debt was always a goal to be pursued by the Brazilian authorities; nevertheless, this was only possible during a short period of time in the first years of the Real Plan. Many empirical works were recently elaborated with the intent to test the auction theory hypothesis, but only Silva (2002) used Brazilian data. This present dissertation uses more trustworthy figures than Silva’s work, beyond the realization of empirical tests relating the primary market to the secondary market. The most important contribution is that in the fixed rate Brazilian’s treasury auction, the estimated theoreticians do not function, and this could be due to the primary market’s low liquidity.

O tema principal dos três ensaios desta dissertação é o Custo Marginal do Financiamento Público (MCF) no Brasil. A análise do (MCF) é de grande importância para a economia, uma vez que pode prover uma medida da perda marginal no bem estar incorrida pela sociedade, resultante da elevação adicional nos tributos. No primeiro ensaio, realizamos estimativas do MCF associado aos principais tributos existentes na economia brasileira através de um modelo estático de equilíbrio geral computável (CGE). Nossas estimativas para o MCF médio na economia brasileira se situam entre 1,167 e 1,173. Considerando apenas os efeitos de eficiência alocativa, os resultados apontam que futuras reformas tributárias para o Brasil devem levar em conta modificações na base da tributação, passando de capital e trabalho para o consumo (dados os menores MCF´s associados). Adicionalmente, as estimativas de MCF associadas à economia informal são menores que a unidade, indicando que um uma maior formalização pode auxiliar na redução do MCF associado aos tributos da economia formal. Finalmente, expandindo o conceito de MCF para considerar preocupações dos agentes com relação à equidade podem alterar sensivelmente os resultados. Nosso segundo trabalho faz uma aplicação do MCF para estimar o Custo Marginal de Financiamento via Dívida Pública ( ) para o Brasil, através de duas abordagens propostas por Dahlby (2006, 2008). Os resultados indicam que o é superior à unidade para ambas as medidas, de modo que a redução de R$ 1,00 da dívida pública implicaria em uma melhoria de bem estar superior a R$ 1,00 para a economia brasileira. Assim sendo, muito embora a trajetória declinante da dívida líquida do setor público brasileiro ao longo da última década e da melhora em alguns indicadores relacionados ao endividamento (como maior participação de títulos prefixados e associados aos índices de preços na dívida mobiliária federal e maior prazo médio relacionado aos títulos prefixados), uma apreciação mais favorável merece cautela. Afora as perdas adicionais de peso morto relacionadas a elevações na dívida, o patamar ainda elevado da dívida interna e a situação pouco contributiva da política fiscal para reduções na mesma, merecem ser analisadas com mais cautela. No terceiro e último ensaio, estendemos, em parte, a análise de Siqueira, Nogueira, Souza e Carvalho (2010), incluindo outras distorções existentes na economia (que podem não decorrer unicamente dos tributos, mas são afetadas por estes) no cálculo do custo marginal social da tributação (SMCF) para o cigarro e para as bebidas alcoólicas. Para tanto, utilizamos uma abordagem proposta por Dahlby (2006) que expande o conceito de MCF para incluir não só as ponderações com relação à equidade, mas também o efeito de externalidades, vícios (problemas de autocontrole) e contrabando. Nossos resultados apontam que incluir as distorções propostas nas mensurações do MCF pode alterar sensivelmente a percepção sobre a taxação incidente no cigarro e sobre as bebidas alcoólicas. / The main theme of the three essays of this dissertation is the Marginal Cost of Public Funds (MCF) in Brazil. The analysis of MCF is of great importance in economics, since it can provide a measure of the marginal welfare loss incurred by the households resulting from high marginal taxes. In our first paper we estimate the MCF associated with major existing taxes in the Brazilian economy through a Static Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE). Our estimates for the average MCF in the Brazilian economy are between 1,167 e 1,173. Considering only efficiency effects, the results show that future tax reforms in Brazil should take into account changes in the tax base from capital and labor to consumption (given the smaller associated MCF). Additionally, estimates of MCF associated with informal economy are smaller than unity, indicating that greater formalization can help reduce the MCF associated to the tax rates in the formal economy. Finally, expanding the concept of MCF to consider equity concerns in agent preferences can significantly alter the results. Our second essay makes an application of the MCF to estimate the Marginal Cost of Public Funds from Public Sector Borrowing ( ) for Brazil, through two approaches proposed by Dahlby (2006, 2008). The results show that the is above unity in both measures, so that a reduction of R$ 1,00 of debt imply a welfare improvement over R$ 1,00 for the Brazilian economy. Thus, although the downward trend in net debt f the Brazilian public sector over the last decade and the improvement in some indicators related to the debt (such as greater participation of fixed rate bonds and others associated with prices index in the federal debt and higher average maturity connected with fixed rate bonds), a more favorable appreciation deserves prudence. Apart from the additional dead-weight losses related to increases in debt, the still high level of the internal debt and the not favorable situation of fiscal policy should be analyzed more carefully. In the third and last essay of this work we extend, in part, the analysis of Siqueira, Nogueira, Souza e Carvalho (2010), including other distortions in the economy (which may not result solely from taxes, but are affected by them) in calculating the social marginal cost of public funds (SMCF) for the cigarette and alcohol. For this purpose, we use an approach proposed by Dahlby (2006) that expands the concept of MCF to include not only equity concerns, but also the effect of externalities, addictions, and smuggling. Our results indicate that inclusion of the distortion measurement proposed in the MCF can significantly change the view from cigarette and alcoholic beverages taxation.