L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier la soutenabilité de la dette publique en fonction du niveau de développement des pays. Après avoir revu la littérature économique en matière d’indicateurs de soutenabilité de la dette, nous avons appliqué des méthodes empiriques et statistiques pour analyser la viabilité de la dette des pays développés et en développement. Nous avons ainsi estimé une fonction de réaction budgétaire pour les gouvernements des pays du G7 qui révèle que les gouvernements des pays du G7 ne se sont pas souciés de l’équilibre de leurs finances publiques sur la période 1978-2007 ; et qu’il y a une attention particulière à la soutenabilité des finances publiques au sein de pays appartenant l’union monétaire européenne. Ensuite, nous avons analysé la soutenabilité de la dette de la Côte d’Ivoire, par le biais de méthodes statistiques utilisées par les Institutions Financières Internationales. Le pays présente ainsi un risque modéré du profil d’endettement ; et l’assainissement de ses finances publiques est essentiel pour la viabilité de la dette à long terme. Par ailleurs, l’évaluation de la performance de la gestion de la dette publique ivoirienne révèle que la conception d’une réelle politique nationale d’endettement permettrait de combler les insuffisances des dispositifs existants. En définitive, les conclusions de notre étude suggèrent des réflexions supplémentaires sur l’analyse théorique de la soutenabilité et sur la cadre de gestion internationale de la dette publique. / The purpose of this thesis is to analyse public debt sustainability according to the level of national economic development. After reviewing the economic literature on public debt sustainability indicators, we applied specific empirical methods to compare developed countries and analyse a heavily indebted poor country (HIPC). We first estimated, among G7 governements, an error-correction-type policy reaction function based on an iterative bayesian estimation that compares the different dynamics of public debt evolution. This analysis reveals that on one hand G7 governments did not focus on debt sustainability during the time frame (1978-2007) ; on the other hand, we noticed a particular attention to debt sustainability in Eurozone countries (Germany, France, Italy) as compared to other countries in the sample. Next, we analyzed the debt sustainability of Côte d’Ivoire, a sub-Saharan Heavily Indebted Poor Country using statistical methods developed by the IMF and the World Bank. The results showed that the country has a moderate risk to indebtment ; therefore budget stabilization and diversification of its exports will be critical for its long-term debt sustainability. Beyond these objectives, the evaluation of the public debt management process, based on an international method (DeMPA), also highlights that designing a real national debt policy could fulfill the shortcomings of current policies. Overall, the conclusions of our thesis suggest additional researches and reflections on the theoretical analysis of public debt and on the architecture of the international public debt management frameworks.

The current Greek debt crisis has forced the Greek government to adopt austerity measures. In this paper, the most favourable debt reduction strategies among all the other strategies, for both Greece and its creditors will be examined. These strategies have been recently suggested in the economic world, to help achieve deficit reduction and enhance the growth rate of Greece. This is very important for the economic world - to avoid the insolvency of Greece and to find the best debt reduction strategy which is favourable for both the parties, so that the Greek public debt-to-GDP ratio can reach a level of sustainability within a reasonable timespan. In an endeavour to answer the research question, a simulation framework has been carried out based on the economic model as given by Cline, (2011). When using this economic model, g has been made endogenous and it is dependent on the extent of austerity. This has been taken into consideration while carrying out the simulation exercises for this paper. Furthermore, three different debt reduction strategies (the lowering of interest rates, debt write-off and increasing the primary surplus) have been implemented, considering the different scenarios of the economy, when executing these simulation exercises. After carrying out the simulation framework, it has been concluded that the further reduction of the interest rate would be the most favorable debt reduction strategy for both Greece and its creditors. This interest rate strategy would not only lower the Greek public debt-to-GDP to a sustainable level within a reasonable time period, but will also keep the growth rate positive in the long run during this period of weak economic recovery.

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Über das Next Generation EU Programm ist eine gemeinsame Schuldenaufnahme unter dem Dach der EU-KOMMISSION erstmals in großem Umfang ermöglicht worden. Auch wenn stets betont worden ist, dass NGEU eine Maßnahme einmaliger Natur ist, so beschreiben einige EU-Amtsträger:innen, wie etwa der EU-Kommissar für Wirtschaft, PAOLO GENTILONI, sowie EMMANUEL MACRON und MARIO DRAGHI, welche fiskalischen Möglichkeiten die Verstetigung eines solchen Programms bieten könnte. Der Beitrag untersucht daher, welche Bedingungen mit der gemeinsamen Schuldenaufnahme verbunden sind und ob diese Konditionalität für eine künftige Schuldenaufnahme aus fiskalpolitischer Sicht adäquat ist. Daraus sollen Bedingungen abgeleitet werden, die bei einer künftigen gemeinsamen Schuldenaufnahme zu beachten sind. / Through the Next Generation EU Program, joint borrowing under the umbrella of the EU Commission has been made possible on a large scale for the first time. Although it has always been stressed that NGEU is a one-off measure, some EU officials, such as EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs PAOLO GENTILONI, as well as EMMANUEL MACRON and MARIO DRAGHI, describe the fiscal opportunities that the continuation of such a program could offer. The paper therefore examines the conditions associated with joint debt borrowing and whether this conditionality is adequate for future debt borrowing from a fiscal policy perspective. From this, the paper aims to derive conditions that need to be observed for future joint debt borrowing.

El documento busca analizar el posible impacto del Fondo de Estabilización de los Precios de los Combustibles derivados del petróleo (FEPC) en variables macroeconómicas de interés, como el PBI, la inflación y la Deuda Pública. El punto fundamental del análisis es debido a la inestabilidad que generan las volatilidades de los precios internacionales del petróleo en economías dependientes del recurso, como la es el Perú. Además, de identificar si las herramientas de estabilización, como lo es el fondo, son ejecutadas de manera eficiente sin generar efectos adversos que puedan perjudicar otras aspectos de la economía. En el documento se encontraron evidencias empíricas sobre la finalidad de la estabilización de precios en diversos aspectos, así como el nacimiento de la necesidad de estos dependiendo de la situación del país frente a los recursos extractivos. Se hizo uso de un modelo de vectores de autocorrección (VAR), para estimar el efecto que poseen los diversos tipos de combustibles, haciendo uso de los precios internacionales y los establecidos por el FEPC. Se usaron datos mensuales para realizar la estimación, del periodo 2008-2018 y fueron extraídos del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú y del Organismo Supervisor de la Inversión en Energía y Minería. La síntesis de la investigación indico que el FEPC cumple con su función principal de ejecutar una estabilización de los precios de los combustibles, suavizando los choques externos a la economía peruana; sin embargo, se requieren realizar modificaciones en el fondo debido a efectos colaterales que lo hacen insostenible en el tiempo. / The developed document examines the impact of the Stabilization Fund for the prices of petroleum-derived fuels (FEPC, in Spanish) in macroeconomic variables of interest, such as GDP, inflation and public debt. The main reason for this study is due for the instability generated by volatilities in international oil prices in resource dependent economies, such as Peru. In addition, to identify if the stabilization tools, such as the fund, are executed efficiently without generating adverse effects that could harm other aspects of the economy. The document found empirical evidence on the purpose of price stabilization in various aspects, as well as the birth of their need depending on the country's situation with respect to extractive resources. A model of autocorrect vectors (VAR) was used to estimate the effect of various types of fuels, using international prices and those established by the FEPC. Monthly data were used to make the estimate, for the period 2008-2018 and were extracted from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Supervisory Agency for Investment in Energy and Mining. The synthesis of the investigation indicated that the FEPC fulfills its main function of executing a stabilization of fuel prices, softening external shocks to the Peruvian economy, however, modifications to the fund are required due to collateral effects that they make it unsustainable over time. / Trabajo de investigación

[pt] Essa dissertação estuda os efeitos da posição fiscal na composição da dívida pública no curto prazo. Nós utilizamos dados da emissão de dívida pública do Brasil e avaliamos o impacto de déficits fiscais e risco país na participação da dívida de curto prazo através de métodos em forma reduzida e VARs. Nossos resultados sugerem que uma deterioração fiscal está associada a uma maior participação da dívida de curto prazo. Ao mesmo tempo, um choque fiscal aumenta a dependência da dívida de curto prazo e dívida flutuante. Em seguida, visando segregar fatores de oferta e demanda na emissão de dívida pública, nós estimamos a elasticidade juros em leilões para dívida pública de curto e médio prazo . Usando um método de identificação por heterocedasticidade, nós encontramos que ambos os fatores estão presentes. Entretanto, a demanda do mercado é consideravelmente mais elástica do que a oferta do Tesouro. / [en] This dissertation studies the effects of the fiscal stance on the composition of public debt in the short run. We use data on Brazilian public debt issuance and assess the impact of fiscal deficits and sovereign risk on the share of shortterm debt through reduced-form and VAR methods. Our results suggest that a fiscal deterioration is associated with a higher share of short-term debt. At the same time, a sovereign risk shock increases the reliance on short-term and floating-rate debt. Then, in order to disentangle supply and demand factors in public debt issuance, we estimate the interest-rate elasticity in auctions for short- and medium-term public debt. Using a method of identification through heteroskedasticity, we find that both factors are present. However, market demand is considerably more interest-rate elastic than Treasury supply.

This paper studies the relationship between corruption and poverty, public debt, and economic growth in the Gambia, to be estimated with data from 1992 to 2016 accessed from the World Bank database using the multiple regression analysis. While extensive literature has agreed on the damaging nature of corruption, not many have tested the relation between corruption and poverty, public debt and economic growth. This thesis intends to bridge the gap in the literature through contributing a study of the relationship of corruption and poverty, public debt, and economic growth in the Gambia during the time period 1996-2016. Results indicate that corruption has a positive statistical and significant relationship with poverty in Gambia. However, the relationship between corruption and economic growth and public debt are statically insignificant. In policy terms, the Gambia must increase the fight against corruption to make their public expenditure more productive and especially to minimise poverty.

This thesis deals with the problem of public debt within the G-20 countries and the Czech Republic. The current state of public finances in these countries was analyzed through the so called Public Finance Checklist, which has been specifically developed for this thesis. The Checklist includes some public sector liabilities that are not a part of the conventional analysis of public sector debt. The results of analysis show that hidden liabilities constitute a significant part of the total amount of public debt in the analyzed countries. This fact presents a threat to stability of public finances. While the total public debt is increasing, governments aim to optically decrease the level of debt. The author assumes that the reason for such behavior is the arrangement of political system with missing corrective mechanisms of the principal-agent problem and moral hazard put into effect by political representatives. At the end of the thesis the author suggests some methods to fix the problems and restrict the growth of public debt.

This thesis examines the results of public budgets in the CR in the period 1993 to 2009. This is a hot topic, with the growth of public debt is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this work is a comprehensive analysis of public finances, specifically addressing issues of access to public deficit and reform public finances. The theoretical part is focused on defining the area being examined and the theory describing this area have their roots back more than sixty years ago in the USA. Although the idea is relatively old data, their content is still current. This is particularly important now that the growing indebtedness of many countries of the European Union, including the Czech Republic. The paper reviewed the current action by governments in the management of public finances. In the analytical part, I analyze using appropriate statistical data trends, correlations and patterns of past and current periods. Based on the trends observed and outline possible scenarios for future development. Reported research findings are interpreted in the form of text, supplemented by a series of graphic illustrations. Not forgetting the situation in the Czech Republic comparison with other developing countries of the European Union. The conclusion summarizes the findings and recommendations and outline likely future developments.

This thesis describes the actual trends of accumulation of the public indebtedness and the various views on the existence of fiscal deficit and public debt. The main purpose of the thesis is to analyze the public debt management - its objectives, operations and organisation. The quantitative criteria for debt portfolio determined by the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic are analyzed and compared with the development and structure of the czech central government debt. The analytical part of the thesis includes the rules for issuance of the government bonds, the analysis of the interest costs and the thoughts about the sustainability of the czech central government debt.