Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-05-15T20:02:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciuscamposdealmeida.pdf: 3230677 bytes, checksum: cc94cfae1c496f3ef9e4cf6b52fcd52f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-05-17T16:05:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciuscamposdealmeida.pdf: 3230677 bytes, checksum: cc94cfae1c496f3ef9e4cf6b52fcd52f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-17T16:05:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciuscamposdealmeida.pdf: 3230677 bytes, checksum: cc94cfae1c496f3ef9e4cf6b52fcd52f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-28 / A busca da compreensão da complexidade das florestas tropicais tem relevância cada vez mais reconhecida em políticas de conservação e de recuperação de ecossistemas degradados e qualidade ambiental de paisagens alteradas. A presença humana tornou-se, a partir dos cinco últimos séculos, um fator de destituição da identidade da Floresta Atlântica, tornando-o um dos domínios naturais mais ameaçados do mundo, onde são raros os testemunhos de florestas primitivas. Iniciativas de conservação dos remanescentes florestais representam uma possibilidade de salvaguarda da Floresta Atlântica. Reservas Particulares do Patrimônio Natural (RPPNs) surgem como uma importante instrumento na busca da intermediação de aspectos sociais, econômicos e ambientais. A porção setentrional da Mantiqueira Sul possui poucas Unidades de Conservação e a identidade única e relevância conservacionista de seus ecossistemas florestais ainda não são devidamente reconhecidas. Tal situação provavelmente se deve a uma lacuna no conhecimento desses remanescentes. Visando contribuir para o conhecimento científico dessa região, foram realizados em três RPPNs (Brejo Novo - BN; Mato Limpo - ML; e Fazenda da Serra - FS) inventários fitossociológicos (DAP ≥ 5 cm) de um hectare de floresta em cada uma e análises estratificadas com DAPs ≥ 5, 10 e 30 cm. Foi feita também a comparação de dados obtidos com os de outros levantamentos de trechos da Floresta Atlântica considerados “bem conservados” ou “maduros”. Para a verificação das influências florísticas e fitogeográficas foram compiladas a distribuição geográfica e status de conservação das espécies identificadas e analisados padrões fitogeográficos e influências ambientais dentro de um contexto de 897 áreas da Floresta Atlântica. Foram registrados nas três áreas 5501 indivíduos, pertencentes a 374 espécies. Brejo Novo contabilizou 167 espécies, ML contabilizou 173 espécies e FS contabilizou 227 espécies. O índice de diversidade de espécies (H’) foi, para BN, ML e FS, respectivamente, de 4,36; 4,33; e 4,70 nats.ind-1. A equabilidade (J) foi 0,85; 0,84; e 0,87, respectivamente. A área basal total foi de 32,94; 37,83; e 44,86 m².ha-1, respectivamente. A análise estratificada do componente arbóreo propiciou uma visão menos estática das relações florísticas e estruturais das florestas, favorecendo melhor compreensão do andamento do processo sucessional e demonstrando que interpretações acerca desse processo, baseadas somente no percentual de espécies raras, podem propiciar interpretações equivocadas. Dentro da tendência geral dos dados, conclui-se que os valores percentuais de árvores mortas apresentados pelas três áreas de estudo não se mostraram bons indicadores de seu status de conservação. Os padrões encontrados evidenciam as áreas de estudo como referenciais da variabilidade natural da Floresta Atlântica em seu processo sucessional tardio. A comparação das três áreas com o conjunto das áreas tomadas como referência reforça esse achado. A flora encontrada demonstra forte influência do domínio fitogeográfico atlântico, particularmente da Floresta Ombrófila. O percentual de espécies exclusivas de cada uma das três áreas demonstra o alto valor de substituição de espécies ao longo do gradiente formado entre elas, ao redor do qual se ajuntam influências florísticas variadas. Esse grupo de contribuições exclusivas também é constituído principalmente por espécies pouco representadas em número de indivíduos. Essas características, chave da relevância das áreas de estudo, também apontam para a singularidade dessa porção da Mantiqueira para a conservação da Floresta Atlântica. Assim, também fica evidenciada a importante contribuição das RPPNs como instrumento voluntário, capaz de salvaguardar o que escapa às prioridades estabelecidas pelas políticas públicas de conservação. / The quest to understand the complexity of tropical forests has had its relevance recognized in policies for the conservation and recovery of degraded ecosystems, and of environmental quality in altered landscapes. The presence of man has become, along the past five centuries, a factor of destitution of the identity of the Atlantic Forest, making it one of the most endangered natural domains of the world, where testimonies of primitive forests are rare. Initiatives for the conservation of forest remainders represent an opportunity to safeguard the Atlantic Forest, and the Private Reserves of Natural Heritage (RPPN) emerge as an important tool to pursue intermediation of social, economic, and environmental aspects. The northern portion of the South Mantiqueira has few protected areas, and the unique identity and conservationist importance of its forest ecosystems are not yet duly recognized. This situation is probably due to a lack of knowledge about those forest remainders. In order to contribute to scientific knowledge about the area, phytosociological inventories (DBH ≥ 5 cm) were performed in one hectare of forest in each of the three Private Reserves of Natural Heritage (Brejo Novo - BN, Mato Limpo - ML, and Fazenda da Serra - FS), followed by stratified analyses with DBHs ≥ 5, 10 and 30 cm. A comparison was also made between data thus obtained and data obtained in surveys of other stretches of the Atlantic Forest considered "well-maintained" or "mature". In order to verify the floristic and phytogeographic influences, the geographical distribution and conservation status of the species identified were compiled, then phytogeographic patterns and environmental influences were analyzed within a context of 897 areas of the Atlantic Forest. In the three areas were recorded 5501 individuals belonging to 374 species. BN had 167 species, ML had 173 species and FS had 227 species. The species diversity index (H') was respectively 4.36; 4.33; and 4.70 nats.ind-1 for BN, ML, FS. The evenness (J) was 0.85; 0.84; 0.87, respectively. The total basal area was 32.94; 37.83; and 44.86 m².ha-1, respectively. Stratified analysis of the arboreal component provided a less static view of the floristic and structural relations of forests, fostering a better understanding of the progress of the succession process, and demonstrating that interpretations of this process based only on the percentage of rare species can promote misinterpretations. Within the general trend of data collected, we may conclude that the percentages of dead trees seen in the three areas of study were not good indicators of the conservation status of those areas. The patterns found show that the areas of study are referential of the natural variability of the Atlantic Forest, in their late succession process. The comparison between those three areas and the group of areas taken as a reference reinforces this finding. The flora found shows a strong influence of the Atlantic phytogeographic domain, especially of the Ombrophilous Forest. The percentages of species that are exclusive of each of the three areas demonstrate the high proportion of species replacement along the gradient formed between them, around which varied floristic influences are gathered. This group of unique contributions is also composed mainly of species represented by a small number of individuals. These characteristics, a key of the relevance of the study areas, also point to the uniqueness of this portion of the Mantiqueira for the conservation of the Atlantic Forest. Thus, we hope to highlight the important contribution of private reserves as a voluntary instrument able to safeguard that which is not included in the priorities set by public conservation policies.

L’Algérie est classée au neuvième rang mondial des pays producteurs de gaz naturel et représente 2,4 % de la production de gaz naturel. Elle occupait le quinzième rang mondial, et le troisième en Afrique avec 9,2 de milliards de barils de pétrole, en termes de réserves prouvées de pétrole, soit 0,9 % des réserves mondiales. A la bonne qualité du pétrole algérien,idéal par sa faible teneur en soufre ce qui le rend très facile à raffiner, s’ajoutent une géologie clémente et une situation avantageuse vis à vis des marchés européens. Cette proximité a été renforcée par les nouveaux gazoducs t-ransméditerranéens de Medgaz et du futur Galsi et par une flotte de méthaniers. Avec une économie dépendante des recettes des hydrocarbures, constituant 97% des exportations, l’Algérie s’est mise dans un piège énergétique. Dans ce domaine l’entreprise algérienne en charge du secteur, la Sonatrach, détient le contrôle de la filière des hydrocarbures sur tous les niveaux. L’arsenal juridique du secteur s’est doté de la loi N°2006-10 relative aux hydrocarbures qui, à première vue, répond aux prospectives du développement de la Sonatrach, dans le mesure où elle cherche à se libérer de l’État et àplanifier sa propre politique expansionniste dans un schéma de management moderne s’alignant en même temps aux offres concurrentielles des grandes firmes internationales leaders dans ce domaine. L’analyse de la politique de l’entreprise et du secteur en général, a pu contribuer à donner une réponse sur la problématique des choix stratégiques qui s’offrent à de l’entreprise. / Algeria is ranked as the ninth largest natural gas producing countries, representing 2.4% of the world natural gas roduction. It held the fifteenth place in the world and the third in Africa with 9.2 billion barrels of oil in terms of proven reserves, which represents 0.9% of world oil reserves. To the good quality of Algerian oil, ideal for its low sulfur content, which makes it very easy to refine, a clement geology and an advantageous nearness from the European markets are added. This proximity is enhanced by the new trans-mediterranean pipelines Medgaz, the future Galsi and by a fleet of LNG tankers. With an economy dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, constituting 97% of its exports, Algeria is set up in an energy trap. In this field the Algerian company responsible for the sector, Sonatrach, holds control of the hydrocarbons chain on all its levels. The law 2006-10, relating to hydrocarbons, at first sight responds to forward-looking development of the Sonatrach, knowing that the Company is looking also to break free from the state and to plan its own expansionist plan in a modern management model, aligning at the same time with the competitive offers proposed by the international firms leading in this field. The analysis of the policy of the company and the Algerian hydrocarbons sector in general, contribute to answer to problematic of the strategic choices available to the company.

Initialement, la modélisation des risques en assurance non vie, supposait l'indépendance entre les différentes variables des modèles actuariels. De nos jours, cette hypothèse d'indépendance est souvent relâchée afin de tenir compte de possibles interactions entre les différents éléments. Cette thèse a pour but de contribuer à la littérature existante de la modélisation de la dépendance en assurance non vie. Concrètement, nous introduisons une nouvelle méthodologie d'analyse des risques en assurance à travers le développement des modèles de dépendance, principalement dans un cadre dynamique. Dans le premier chapitre de la thèse nous introduisons le contexte actuel de solvabilité, ainsi que la modélisation de la dépendance en assurance, avec une présentation des principaux résultats. Le deuxième chapitre est essentiellement constitué d'un article coécrit avec Christian de Peretti et Lotfi Belkacem, intitulé "Modelling Temporal Dependence of Claims In Insurance Using Autoregressive Conditional Amount Models" (voir Araichi et al. (2013)). Dans ce chapitre nous montrons l'existence d'une forme de dépendance temporelle (dynamique) entre les montants de sinistres d'une même branche d'assurance. Nous proposons un nouveau modèle nommé Autoregressive Conditional Amount Model (ACA), qui permet de capturer le comportement dynamique des sinistres. Également, nous développons un nouveau modèle nommé Generalized Extreme Value ACA model (GEVACA), afin d'analyser la dépendance dynamique des montants élevés, au niveau des queues de distribution. Enfin, nous donnons une nouvelle expression pour la Value at Risk (VaR) paramétrique adaptée pour des risques à dépendance temporelle. Des applications sur des données réelles et des techniques de backtesting sont ensuite effectuées afin de montrer la pertinence des modèles proposés. Le troisième chapitre est constitué d'un article coécrit avec Christian de Peretti et Lotfi Belkacem, intitulé "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Sinistrality Model : A novel model for claims reserving in Non life insurance", (voir Araichi et al. (2015)). Dans ce chapitre, nous abordons d'abord le problème de l'évaluation des réserves dans un cadre dynamique. Nous montrons l'existence d'une forme de dépendance dynamique dans un triangle de liquidation. En particulier, nous nous intéressons à l'analyse de la dépendance temporelle entre les sinistres, ainsi qu'entre les années de développement. Nous proposons un nouveau modèle nommé "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Sinistrality Model (GACSM), qui constitue une extension du modèle linéaire généralisé classique. Ensuite, nous fournissons une méthode de simulation bootstrap basée sur le modèle GACSM, qui permet d'évaluer les réserves en tenant compte du caractère dynamique des sinistres. Enfin, afin de montrer l'impact du modèle proposé sur l'évaluation des réserves et du capital, nous effectuons une comparaison des résultats obtenus avec ceux obtenus des modèles classiques (Chain Ladder et modèle linéaire généralisé). Dans le quatrième chapitre de la thèse, qui est constitué d'un article, coécrit avec Christian de Peretti et Lotfi Belkacem, intitulé "Time Varying Copula Model for claims reserving in Non life insurance". Nous intéressons à évaluer le montant agrégé des sinistres, en analysant conjointement la dépendance dynamique inter-sinistres ainsi qu'entre les sinistres de deux branches. Nous proposons un modèle basé sur le modèle GACSM et les copules conditionnelles, qui permettent de suivre l'évolution de la dépendance au cours du temps. Enfin, nous effectuons des applications sur des données réelles, ainsi que des méthodes de simulation sont considérées. En comparant les résultats obtenus, nous avons pu illustrer l'impact de la dépendance dynamique sur les réserves et le besoin en capital / In this thesis a different aspects of dependence modeling are considered. Indeed, temporal dependence structures between claims amounts and between lines of business are analyzed. In the first chapter, a general introduction on modeling dependence in insurance is provided. The second chapter is essentially constituted by the article "Modeling Temporal Dependence of Claims In Insurance Using Autoregressive Conditional Amount Models", written with Christian de Peretti and Lotfi Belkacem, (see Araichi et al. (2013)) It deals with the problem of existing a temporal dependence structure between claims amounts of one line of business. To this end, we propose a new model for handling the dynamic behaviour of claims amounts in insurance companies using an Autoregressive Conditional Amount (ACA) framework. This model will be named Autoregressive Conditional Amount Model (ACA). A Gamma ACA model and a Generalized Extreme Value ACA model are proposed. It is shown that these models are more appropriate to describe and to forecast the process of claims of the lines Auto Damage and Auto Liability than traditional models. Furthermore, a parametric Value at Risk based on ACA framework (VaR ACA) is proposed for evaluating a coverage amount of these claims. Using backtesting techniques, the VaR ACA provides an accurate estimation of risk. The third chapter of this thesis is based on the article "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Sinistrality Model: A novel model for claims reserving in Non life insurance", written with Christian de Peretti and Lotfi Belkacem, (see Araichi et al. (2015)). In this chapter, a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Sinistrality Model (GACSM) for claims is proposed. We extend the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) by incorporating temporal dependence between claims amounts of one triangle. The GACSM is used for model parameter estimation and consistency of such estimate is proved. Bootstrap procedure is implemented for prediction reserves and prediction errors. Results show that taking into account the temporal dependence between losses improves the precision of the reserve distribution estimate, and thus evaluates an accurate SCR. Finally the fourth chapter is based on the article "Time Varying Copula Model for claims reserving in Non life insurance", written with Christian de Peretti and LotfiBelkacem. In this chapter, a time varying copula models to understand the behavior of claims amounts of two lines of business. Time varying copula functions with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Sinistrality model are used to analyze the evolution in time of dependence between two lines and the temporal dependence between claims of each line. Simulation study is performed to highlight the impact on reserves and Solvency Capital Requirement. Results show that our approach provides a diversification effect between claims amounts

La composition des parcs électriques nationaux est basée sur le classement des différents moyens de production par rapport à leur coût marginal de génération d’électricité. Ainsi, les réserves considérables d’hydrocarbure dans les pays producteurs de pétrole ont favorisé l’usage abusif du pétrole ou du gaz naturel dans le parc de production d’électricité. L’objectif de ce travail de recherche est d’analyser des parcs de production pour ces pays producteurs en construisant le parc optimal d’électricité concernant l’usage rationnel (du point de vue économique) des différents moyens de génération d’électricité. Dans ce travail, nous évaluons la situation actuelle et future de la production d’électricité en Arabie Saoudite, en Egypte et en Iran grâce à plusieurs approches de modélisation : linéaire, dynamique et statistique. Ensuite, nous allons mener une analyse de sensibilité afin d’évaluer l’optimalité et l’efficacité de la production d’électricité en tenant compte de l’intégration des autres ressources alternatives non-carbonées. / National power generation mix composition is based on the ranking (merit-order) of the various means of production from their marginal cost of electricity generation. Thus, significant reserves of hydrocarbons in oil-producing countries favoured the abusive use of oil or natural gas in the electricity mix. The purpose of this research is to analyze the power generation mix of these countries by constructing an optimal electricity mix based on the rational use (from an economic point of view) of various electricity production means. In this work, we assess the current and future situation of electricity production in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran, thanks to linear, dynamic and statistical modeling efforts. Thereafter, we will conduct sensitivity analysis to measure the optimality and efficiency of electricity generation by taking into account the integration of alternative non-fossil-fuel based resources.

Five lions were reintroduced to the Welgevonden Private Game Reserve in 1998. These lions were studied to increase the limited knowledge of the ecology of reintroduced lions on small wildlife reserves, and to provide baseline data to the reserve management from which to develop management decisions. In the past, reintroduction attempts of felids have often failed because the animals failed to establish ranges in the new environment. During the current study, homing behaviour and range establishment of the reintroduced lions were studied and used as an indication of the success of the reintroduction attempt. The ease with which lions on Welgevonden established ranges indicated that they did not experience problems with adapting to their new environment The population dynamics of the reintroduced lion population were investigated. The population grew rapidly due to early breeding and short inter-litter intervals. The collected data were used to model the lion population using VORTEX population modelling software. Various potential management strategies to reduce the population growth were also modelled and discussed. The feeding ecology and predation patterns of the reintroduced lions• were investigated to give an indication of the predator-prey relationships on Welgevonden. These data were used in a model that investigated the effect of lion predation on the various prey populations of Welgevonden. The model was also used to test the influence of other factors on the prey populations, as well as the number of killing lions that can be supported by the prey population. The study has shown that reintroduction can be used successfully to establish a lion population on a small game reserve, but that certain management actions will increase the chances of success. However, continual monitoring and management will be necessary to ensure the long-term viability of the lion and prey populations. <p. / Dissertation (MSc (Wildlife Management))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Centre for Wildlife Management / unrestricted

This thesis explores human-wildlife interactions under community managed game parks. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter, study location chapter and four self-contained studies based on different samples from created clusters surrounding Nyatana Game Park, which make up the rest of the thesis chapters. Chapter one presents an introductory overview of wildlife management in Zimbabwe, specifically looking at human-wildlife interactions under CAMPFIRE projects, welfare dynamics and conservation implications for the surrounding communities who share boundaries with community-managed game parks. The chapter concludes by highlighting the challenges facing community-based wildlife conservation in Zimbabwe as well as the key concepts that will be the subject of the rest of the thesis. Chapter two presents the study location; it highlights the road map to the study area, starting with the provincial location, and indicates the specific districts from which respondents were selected. A brief agro-ecological summary of the study area is also presented; it looks specifically at climate, vegetation and a demographic data of the study area. Chapter three: Can game parks be trusted as livelihood sources? To answer this topical question, Chapter three explores livelihood adaptation strategies for households who share boundaries with Nyatana Game Park. Most of the community managed game parks, under CAMPFIRE principles in Zimbabwe, were established with the primary objective of generating revenue for the surrounding communities; this was done in the hope of using positive returns from game farming to promote the conservation of wildlife. Has this materialised in practice? Descriptive results from this study seem to suggest otherwise, where mixed farming and gold panning were the major livelihood adaptation choices reported by most households. The revenue from game farming was reported to be too low and inconsistent, to such an extent that the majority of the community regarded it as risky and unreliable. A multinomial logistic regression model for correlates of adaptation choices indicated that access to credit, markets, and extension may be some of the current institutional constraints inhibiting households from accessing off-farm sources for their livelihoods. In addition, household size, gender and age may enhance the adaptive capacity of households to move out of risky crop faming into other off-farm portfolio diversifications. The study, therefore, suggests that game parks, according to the evidence uncovered by the study, may not be trusted as a reliable and sustainable livelihood source. If local communities who share boundaries with game parks do not view them as reliable and sustainable livelihood sources, as concluded in Chapter three, how can they (local communities) be trusted to conserve them? To assess their perceptions of game parks, Chapter four presents a multinomial logistic regression model for perceptions of society on game parks using the African elephant as a typical example. The results suggest that Problem Animal Control (PAC) perceptions, livestock predation and issues of low and poor revenue distribution may be some of the critical perceptions capable of influencing surrounding communities to negatively participate in the conservation of wildlife. The results further suggest that using wildlife proceeds to finance observable local common pool infrastructure may positively influence the surrounding communities to conserve wildlife. The chief conclusion regarding game parks, therefore, was that the surrounding communities were in favour of the obliteration pathway, although minimal conservation perceptions were also available. Given the negative conclusions regarding game parks, as suggested in Chapters three and four, citizens would then wonder if any meaningful hope for community managed game parks exists. Chapter five probes the buffer zone livelihood link under community managed game parks, using evidence from the Nyatana Game Park. The binary logistic regression model results, for buffer zone participation and resource extraction combinations by surrounding communities, suggest that resource extraction may be market driven rather than focussing on domestic consumption. The study therefore concludes that the buffer zone livelihood link as currently practiced, though potential, may fail to address the livelihood expectations of the sub-district producer communities. The study therefore calls for extreme caution whenever the buffer zone livelihood link is considered, because several institutional and design conflicts exist within this dynamic. In Chapter six, the study further probed the buffer zone income dynamics for the sub-district producer community. The results of descriptive statistics suggest that the contribution of buffer zone activities to household income may be significant with a positive correlation to household agricultural income for communities who reside inside or close to the park (primary sub-district producer community). Using the Gini decomposition approach and Lorenz curves, the study concluded that a buffer zone income may be capable of contributing to more equally distributed incomes for rural communities who share boundaries with game parks. With respect to the correlates of household income, the results suggest that household size and age may negatively influence income from buffer zone activities, while gender may have a positive effect. This was also true for education and Livestock Units (LUs) with respect to income from self employment; the former positively and the latter negatively related. The results further suggest that land size may also be positively significant in order to explain income from agriculture as well as total income. With regard to the distance from the buffer zone, the results suggest a negative influence with respect to the buffer zone, agriculture and total income. The implied message therefore suggests that buffer zones may provide active livelihood sources which are capable of financing rural household agriculture. The income equalizing effect which is portrayed may also further imply that, if correctly targeted and promoted, a buffer zone income could possibly address the current income inequality which is generic in rural areas. However, this potential may not be realized due to the current buffer zone design status (created for local secondary use as opposed to commercial primary use), restrictive policies and poor institutional support. With this dilemma facing community managed game parks (threats as summarised in Chapters three and four amid the potential hope summarized in Chapters five and six), Chapter 7 concludes the study by suggesting that the human-wildlife interaction model, though currently theoretical, may have significant practical potential in addressing the livelihoods of the surrounding communities as well as promoting the conservation of wildlife. This could be possible if available challenges that range from low revenue, insecure property rights, high human-elephant conflict and institutional design conflict for buffer zone utilization are corrected by means of the free market system. This would allow market forces to deliver on the expectations of the ―human-wildlife interactions model‖ – sustainable livelihoods for the former and intergenerational conservation for the latter.

Le premier chapitre de cette thèse étudie l’efficience d’accumulation des RI et de la stérilisation dans les pays dollarisés et endettés, en mesurant le coefficient de stérilisation, et le coefficient de retournement. Ce chapitre explore le lien existant entre les sources des réserves et les dettes externes. En appliquant le modèle de régression 2SLS, nous identifions les variables explicatives qui nous permettent d’estimer les coefficients cités. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que malgré l’application théorique et correcte de la politique de stérilisation, les contraintes économiques contribuent à réduire l’efficience attendue des politiques monétaires. Le deuxième chapitre consiste à envisager les probabilités des pays endettés de tomber en crises financières malgré le fait qu’ils accumulent les réserves internationales agissant en tant que choc modérateur et/ou auto-assurance. Nous utilisons l’Indicateur de Stress Financier ISF, proposé par Balakrishnan et al (2009) et le FMI qui couvre les divers aspects de crises financières. Nous appliquons le modèle Markov Switching à probabilité variée. Nous obtenons comme résultat que les dettes augmentent la probabilité qu’un pays souffre d’une crise financière, par contre, les RI ne procurent pas forcément les « paix » dans l’économie, à l’exception des quelques cas. Cependant, les effets négatif des dettes emportent sur les effets positifs des RI surtout dans les pays relativement plus dollarisés. Le troisième chapitre mesure tout d’abord le degré des indices du trilemme: Stabilité du taux de change, indépendance monétaire et ouverture du compte capital, tout en tenant compte de l’accumulation des ratios RI par rapport au PIB ou Dettes Externes ou Dettes Externes (DE) à court terme. L’évolution des indices du trilemme montre que les pays qui adoptent « de facto » un taux de change flexible, profitent des avantages des RI pour adopter un régime de taux de change administré, qui consiste à atteindre simultanément les trois objectifs du trilemme sans renoncer à un d’eux. Les interprétations peuvent changer si les RI sont prises en fonctions des dettes, autrement dit, l’utilisation des RI/Dettes devrait être envisagée dans de telles études. Ensuite, nous trouvons qu’en ce qui concerne les pays qui adoptent de facto un régime de taux de change fixe, les RI (différents ratios) ne jouent aucun rôle quant à l’évolution du triangle de Mundell et n’interviennent pas dans les décisions politiques monétaires des autorités monétaires. Enfin, ce chapitre traite l’aspect normatif du trilemme, reliant les choix politiques aux résultats macroéconomiques tels que la volatilité de la croissance de production. Nous remarquons que les résultats sont différents selon les pays, et dépendent des différents ratios de mesure du RI. Nous concluons que l’impact des RI sur la volatilité de la croissance de production peut changer selon le niveau des DE et selon le régime de taux de change adopté. / The first chapter of this thesis investigates the efficiency of Hoarding IR and Sterilization in dollarized and indebted countries by measuring the sterilization coefficient, and the offset coefficient. It also focuses on exploring the link between the sources of Reserves and the external debt. We applied a 2SLS regression models and we identified explanatory variables that enabled us to estimate the aforementioned coefficients. Our results show that despite their theoretical correct practice of sterilization policy, economic constrains contribute to weaken the efficiency expected from monetary policies. The second chapter consists of estimating the probability whether an indebted country is vulnerable to crises despite its accumulation of IR -acting as a buffer stock and self-insurance. We use the Financial Stress Indicator (FSI) proposed by Balakrishnan et al (2009) and IMF which covers several aspects of financial crisis- and apply the Markov switching model with time varying, We found that debt had increased the likelihood for a country to suffer from financial crisis, however IR did not necessarily provide “Peace” in the indebted countries except of some exceptions. Thus, consistent with, Calvo (2003, 2006), who found that a country that has an excessive external debt, hoarding reserves will not be sufficient to avoid a crisis, but may be useful during the "sudden stop" crises, we conclude that the deleterious effects of ED might outweigh in most cases the beneficial effects of IR especially in more dollarized countries The third chapter measures first, the degree of trilemma indexes: exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital account openness while taking into account the increase of hording IR ratio over GDP, over External Debt and over Short Term External Debt. The evolution of the trilemma indexes shows that countries applying de facto flexible Exchange Rate Regime (ERR) take advantage of the IR and become able to adopt a managed ERR that consist of achieving the three trilemma indexes simultaneously without renouncing to anyone of them. We found that different IR ratio could have different interpretations and different directions of monetary policies, where external debt should be taken into consideration in such study while using the IR. As for the country that is applying a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, the IR (different ratio) do not play any role in changing the patter of the Mundell trilemma and do not intervene in monetary authority policies. This chapter treats as well the normative aspects of the trilemma, relating the policy choices to macroeconomic outcomes such as the volatility of output growth. We found different results from country to another, while taking different ratios of measuring IR, concluding that the impact of IR on the output volatility could change due to the level of external debt and adopted exchange rate regime.

The subject of the diploma thesis is a financial analysis of a commercial insurance company for the period from the year 2004 to 2008. The financial analysis is produced on the basis of publicly available data. The first part of the diploma thesis is focused on theoretical aspects of financial analysis of an insurance company, specific activities of insurance companies and indicators used in the financial analysis of insurance company. The second part of the diploma thesis is a practical part, where financial analysis of selected company is realized by means and indicators described in the teoretical part. The conclusion sums up the results and findings of the thesis.

This document mainly deals with financial placing of an insurance company. First it wrote about insurance and next about assets of insurance company generally. After it wrote about financial placing in commercial insurance company according to Czech law and according to IFRS. It includes also a practical example , how to change from czech law to IFRS influenced balance-sheet of an insurance company.

One of the main and crucial activities of an insurance company is to determine amount of technical reserves to be generated. If the insurance company performs in the non-life insurance branch, it focuses first of all on loss reserve which is generated to settle debts coming from insurance claims. To set the proper amount of this reserve, especially of the reserve on incurred but not reported losses (IBNR), mathematical and statistical methods are used. This thesis introduces one of the most used methods which is the chain ladder method. It presents the first chain ladder deterministic model then moves to its stochastic extension in a form of Mack's model and finally gets to the Munich chain ladder model, which takes into calculations not only data on losses paid but also losses incurred. In the theoretical part both these models (standard Mack's chain ladder and Munich chain ladder) are presented both separately and in a common context so that later in the analytical section they could be demonstrated on real data.