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The importance of earnings expectation on share price performance.January 1996 (has links)
by Chung Kwok-Wai, Li Wai-Man, Raymond. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 40-41). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.2 / Relationship Between Earning Forecasts and Stock Returns --- p.2 / Relationship Between Forecast Error and Stock Returns --- p.3 / Relationship Between Forecast Revision and Stock Returns --- p.5 / Chapter III. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.7 / Sources of Consensus Earning Estimates --- p.7 / The Sampling Criteria --- p.7 / Six Earnings Expectations Variables --- p.9 / Statistical Procedures --- p.11 / Measuring Excess Returns --- p.12 / Rank Correlation Test --- p.14 / Report of Excess Returns --- p.15 / Chapter IV. --- RESULTS --- p.16 / Relationship Between Earning Forecasts and Stock Returns --- p.16 / Relationship Between Actual Growth and Stock Returns --- p.20 / Relationship Between Forecast Error and Stock Returns --- p.22 / Relationship Between Forecast Revision and Stock Returns --- p.27 / Size and Variation of Excess Returns Due to Forecast Errors --- p.28 / Size of Returns by Being More Accurate --- p.30 / Limitations of Our Study --- p.31 / Chapter V. --- CONCLUSION --- p.33 / APPENDIX --- p.35 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.40
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L'approche juridique contemporaine de la gestion des ressources naturelles mondiales / Contemporary legal approach to the management of global natural resourcesSingla, Laure 22 September 2016 (has links)
La conquête des espaces depuis le XVème siècle a permis la reconnaissance du principe de souveraineté des États sur leurs ressources naturelles. Le XXIème siècle doit faire face à l'épuisement progressif des ressources naturelles fossiles mondiales et à la quête de nouvelles. Les tensions autour de la gestion actuelle mondiale des ressources naturellesont posé le constat d'une régulation juridique fragile, et l'idée d'adopter d'autres gouvernances reposant sur un mode de gestion nouveau. Cette autre approche, intergénérationnelle serait basée sur une gestion raisonnée au sens de rationnelle, équilibrée et adaptée des systèmes endémiques. Or, ce basculement place la question de la gestiondes ressources naturelles mondiales au coeur des priorités inter-générationnelles. Le XXIème siècle permet alors de réfléchir à la reconnaissance juridique du principe d'interdépendance entre l'Homme et la Nature. Mais cette réflexion juridique vient a contrario des politiques publiques et modes de gestion traditionnels. L'Europe a amorcé une réactivité effective. La France a suivi par l'adoption de la charte de l’environnement, les lois dites Grenelle I et II, la loi sur la transition énergétique. Certains États Andins ont inscrit ce principe dans leur constitution. L'approche juridique contemporaine de la gestion des ressources naturelles mondiales renvoit ainsi à d'autres modes de gouvernance et à des notions de territoires endémiques et d'intérêt général commun. Les enjeux juridiques environnementaux mondiaux reposent alors sur denouvelles politiques sécuritaires anticipatives, renforçant les liens de coopération existants face à la multiplicité des sources d’autorité et de pouvoir. / The conquest of space since the fifteenth century allowed the recognition of the principle of sovereignty of States over their natural resources. The XXI century is facing the depletion of global fossil natural resources and the pursuit of new. Tensionsaround the world present management of natural resources posed the finding of a weak legal regulation, and the idea of adopting other governance based on a new mode of management. The other approach, intergenerational would be based on a reasoned management in the sense of rational, balanced and adapted endemic systems. But this shift puts the issue of the management of global natural resources at the heart of intergenerational priorities. The XXI century then allows to reflect on the legal recognition of the principle of interdependence between Man and Nature. But this legal thinking isa contrario of public policies and traditional management methods. Europe has initiated an effective response. France followed by the adoption of the charter of the environment, the laws say Grenelle I and II, the Law on energy transition. SomeAndean States have included this principle in their constitutions. The contemporary legal approach to the management of global natural resources and returns to other modes of governance and to notions of endemic areas of common public interest. Global environmental legal issues while based on new proactive security policies, strengthening existing ties of cooperation to face the multiplicity of sources of authority and power.
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Finite rationality and repeated game.January 1998 (has links)
by Tsang Wai-Hung. / Thesis sumbitted in: December 1997. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 46-48). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Acknowledgements --- p.ii / Abstract --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.v / Chapter / Chapter I. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- Model and Main Results --- p.8 / Chapter III. --- Proofs --- p.16 / Chapter IV. --- Correlated Equilibrium and Myopic-Consistent Equilibrium --- p.29 / Chapter V. --- Application --- p.33 / Chapter VI. --- Conclusion --- p.36 / Chapter VII. --- Appendix --- p.37 / Reference --- p.46
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Tax-Rate Biases in Tax-Planning Decisions: Experimental EvidenceAmberger, Harald, Eberhartinger, Eva, Kasper, Helmut January 2016 (has links) (PDF)
Recent empirical findings suggest that firms might not always engage in economically optimal tax planning. We conduct a series of four laboratory experiments with 223 students and 62 tax professionals to examine whether decision biases offer a behavioral explanation for tax outcomes. We find that individuals overestimate the importance of tax rates relative to the tax base when facing time pressure in tax-planning decisions. This systematic decision bias results in suboptimal choices. In line with the theory of rational inattention, we observe that increasing tax-burden differences between two tax-planning strategies weakly mitigate the decision bias. However, tax-planning behavior is unaffected by the level of experience: students and highly experienced tax professionals are similarly prone to biased decision-making. Overall, our findings suggest that overestimating the implications of salient tax-rate information can cause decision biases and contribute to heterogeneity in tax outcomes. / Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Series
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A manifestação da intuição na tomada de decisão instantânea pelos empreendedores da Serra GaúchaMorello, Andreia January 2016 (has links)
As decisões racionais ou intuitivas delimitam a vida das pessoas, gerando boas ou más consequências. São as decisões que geram oportunidades, desafios e incertezas. Até pouco tempo, a teoria gerencial era embasada nas premissas, de que, por critérios de racionalidade poderíamos dominar a vida e o destino das empresas. No entanto, em virtude de limitações envolvidas no processo decisório, como falta de tempo, excesso de informações, mudanças constantes e instabilidade tanto econômica quanto política, fizeram com que métodos suportados pela racionalidade, busquem apoio em conhecimentos gerados pela experiência acumulada pelo indivíduo. Esta dissertação visa abordar a tomada de decisão dos empreendedores, juntando aspectos da administração e da psicologia. Primeiramente uma abordagem da evolução do pensamento sobre a tomada de decisão é repassada, com conceitos que dão conta da racionalidade limitada e também de que o nível de incerteza e a complexidade inerente às decisões aumentaram. Após evidências teóricas mostrando como a intuição influencia a tomada de decisão, esperasse demonstrar como os empreendedores entrevistados utilizam a intuição para a tomada de decisões. Através de estudo de caso com oito empreendedores, foi possível apresentar aspectos que influenciam o comportamento dos empreendedores no exercício do processo decisório, demonstrando que suas decisões nem sempre seguem um processo racional descrito na literatura, mas respaldam-se muitas vezes em formas intuitivas e criativas que dependem muito mais de sua experiência e de sua percepção sobre oportunidades ou ameaças que propriamente uma planilha estatística. Como resultado, verificou-se que a intuição tem papel importante na formação da solução percebida pelos empreendedores, e como outros autores já colocaram, há uma grande dificuldade em colocar todos os elementos que compõem a tomada de decisão nos processos decisórios, fazendo com que o empreendedor recorra em muitas decisões, a fontes mais informais, como é o caso da intuição, que respondendo ao objetivo principal desta dissertação, constatou-se que possivelmente a experiência e a intuição sejam os elementos que mais auxiliam a tomada de decisão, principalmente na primeira e na terceira geração, conforme será demonstrado nesta dissertação. / Intuitive and rational decisions put a limit on people’s lives, resulting in good and bad consequences. The decisions generate opportunities, challenges and uncertainties. Until recently, management theory was grounded in assumptions that, by rational criteria we could dominate life and companies’ fate. However, due to limitations involved in the decision-making process, such as lack of time, information overload, constant changes and instability both economic and political made methods supported by rationality, seek support in knowledge generated by the accumulated individual experience. This work seeks to address the entrepreneurs’ decision-making, combining aspects of management and psychology. First of all an approach to thought evolving on the decision-making is checked on through concepts that take into account bounded rationality and also that the level of uncertainty and the inherent complexity of decisions increased. After theoretical evidences showing how the intuition influences the decision making-process, it is expected to demonstrate how interviewed entrepreneurs use intuition to make decisions. Through a case study with eight entrepreneurs, it was possible to present aspects that influence entrepreneurs’ behavior in the exercise of decision-making by demonstrating that their decisions do not always follow a rational process described in the literature, but often they are supported in intuitive and creative ways, which rely more heavily on their experience and their perception of opportunities or threats, than in a exactly statistical spreadsheet. As a result, it was found that intuition plays an important role in forming the solution perceived by entrepreneurs, and as others have already put, there is great difficulty in putting all the elements that make up the decision-making into decision-making processes, making the entrepreneur refers, in many decisions, the more informal sources, such as the intuition case, that responding to the main objective of this abstract , it was found that perhaps the experience and intuition are the factors that most help the decision making, especially in the first and in the third generations, as will be shown in this work.
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Folkbiblioteket i den statliga kulturpolitiken : En ideologianalytisk studie av propositionen Tid för kultur / The public library within the government cultural policy : an ideology analytic study of the government bill Tid för kulturHedbom, Jakob, Lindroos, Erik January 2010 (has links)
This Bachelor's thesis examines and describes the ideas and ideological traits surrounding the public library within the governmental cultural policy. The Bachelor's thesis demonstrates how the public library – even though its relevance in the modern society has shifted over time – has maintained a connection to the governmental cultural policy and has therefore been shaped by the ideological changes in the political sphere as a whole. The main issues are: Which ideas concerning the public library's functions are expressed in the governmental cultural policy? Which ideological tendencies can be identified in the national cultural policy? Which ideas concerning the public library can be extracted through the found ideological tendencies? The method used in order to study the governmental bill is an ideology analysis based on a framework created by Dorte Skot-Hansen. The conceptual framework is used to represent three municipal cultural political rationales – the humanistic, the sociological and the instrumental – which in the ideal types are based on the ideological tendencies of the Scandinavian cultural policy during the latter half of the twentieth century. The analysis shows that the governmental cultural policy has maintained some of its traditional values but they seem to be inferior to the new economic liberal tendencies. However, within these results the expressed ideas regarding the public library deviates from the ideological tendencies and portray a traditional and enlightening institution instead of the expected market adjusted institution.
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Do extrativismo à domesticação: as possibilidades da castanha-do-pará / From extraction to domestication: the possibilities of Brazil nutAlmeida, José Jonas 04 March 2015 (has links)
Uma das mais importantes atividades econômicas da Amazônia, a extração da castanha-do-pará foi o sustento de muitas populações tradicionais daquela região. Vários estudos têm destacado as suas qualidades nutritivas e as boas possibilidades de uso para esse produto. Desde a década de 1960, avançaram no Brasil as pesquisas para o aperfeiçoamento do cultivo da castanheira, algo que havia sido tentado pelos ingleses, desde a primeira metade do século XIX. Os institutos de pesquisas agrícolas do Brasil conseguiram, após décadas de estudos, desenvolver a técnica de plantio da espécie, que requer as condições de seu ambiente original, necessárias ao desenvolvimento da planta. Por outro lado, pouco foi feito no sentido de melhorar o beneficiamento e o aproveitamento do produto, ainda muito limitado ao uso da amêndoa. Atualmente, a castanha-do-pará é vista como um recurso que pode contribuir para a preservação da floresta amazônica e, ao mesmo tempo, gerar renda para as populações da região. / One of the most important economic activities in the Amazon, the extraction of Brazil nut, was responsible for the livelihood of many traditional peoples of that region. Several studies have highlighted the nuts nutritional qualities and its good possibilities of use. Since the 1960s, researches have increased in Brazil to improve the cultivation of Brazil nut trees, something that had already been tried by the Englishmen since the first half of the 19th century. Agricultural research institutes in Brazil have succeeded to develop the technique, which requires the plants original environmental conditions in order to thrive. On the other hand, little has been done to improve the products processing and use, which is still limited to the kernel. Today, Brazil-nut is seen as a resource that can contribute to the preservation of the Amazon rainforest and at the same time generate income for the people of the region.
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Propriedades da expansão decimal / Properties of the decimal expansionMenezes, Fernanda Martinez 11 February 2016 (has links)
Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal o estudo da expansão decimal dos números reais. Primeiramente provamos que todo número real possui ao menos uma expansão decimal. Na sequência, um método para encontrar a expansão decimal de um número entre 0 e 1 é apresentado, bem como um estudo sobre a expansão decimal de números racionais e irracionais. Em seguida, o estudo apresenta métodos que permitem encontrar aproximações racionais de números irracionais, além dos erros cometidos por essas aproximações. Na parte final, por seu turno, o foco do trabalho recai sobre a análise da regularidade (frequência) dos dígitos das expansões decimais. / This work has as main objective the study of the decimal expansion of the real numbers. First we prove that every real number has at least one decimal expansion. Further, a method to find the decimal expansion of real numbers between 0 and 1 is provided as well as a the study of the decimal expansion of rational and irrational numbers. Next, the study presents methods that provide rational approximations to irrational numbers, in addition to the errors committed by these approximations. At the end, by its turn, the focus of the work is put on the analysis of the regularity (frequency) of the digits of the decimal expansion.
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Uma reconstrução racional da concepção utilitarista de Bentham / A rational reconstruction of the Bentham\'s utilitarianism conceptionDias, Maria Cristina Longo Cardoso 06 February 2007 (has links)
O Objetivo deste trabalho é estabelecer os limites entre a ética e a legislação, a partir da concepção teórica de Jeremy Bentham. Para atingir este objetivo, será efetuada uma reconstrução racional de seu sistema teórico, utilizando a Metodologia da Teoria da Ciência [MTC] e a Metodologia dos Programas de Pesquisa Científicos. Uma vez feita a reconstrução racional da concepção teórica de Bentham, tencionase demonstrar, por meio de elementos de sua sistemática, que o próprio princípio da utilidade estabelece a linha divisória entre ambos os campos. Ou seja, é o princípio da utilidade que ditará o raio de ação da lei e da ética, bem como seus limites. Será possível compreender que estabelecer as fronteiras entre a ética e a legislação, a partir do princípio de utilidade, significa, em última instância, fazer uma análise do balanço envolvendo prazer e dor. Em linguagem atual, pode-se dizer que este exame será aquele em termos de custo e benefício, pois, em muitos casos, a elaboração de legislação e aplicação de punição a determinadas transgressões tendem a gerar custos sociais mais elevados do que o benefício auferido. Em outras palavras, para alguns tipos de transgressão a legislação não deverá ser aplicada, mas apenas as regras da ética. / The aim of this work is to determine the limits between ethics and legislation through the theoretical conception of Jeremy Bentham. In order to achieve this aim, it will be done a rational reconstruction of his theoretical system, using The Methodology of Science Theory [MTC] and The Methodological of Scientific Research Programmes. Once done the Rational Reconstruction of the Bentham\'s Theoretical Conception, it will be demonstrated (through elements of his system) that the principle of utility indicates the limits between these fields. It means that, this principle will dictate the scope and the limits between the legislation and ethics. It will be possible to comprehend that establishing boundaries between ethics and legislation, through the principle of utility, means setting a balance analysis involving pleasure and pain. In contemporary language, it can be said that this examination will be done in terms of cost and benefit. The elaboration of legislation and the application of punishment to certain transgressions tend to generate social costs more elevated than the created benefit. In other words, the legislation shall not be applied to some kinds of transgressions, but only the rules of ethics.
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Algorithms for trigonometric polynomial and rational approximationJaved, Mohsin January 2016 (has links)
This thesis presents new numerical algorithms for approximating functions by trigonometric polynomials and trigonometric rational functions. We begin by reviewing trigonometric polynomial interpolation and the barycentric formula for trigonometric polynomial interpolation in Chapter 1. Another feature of this chapter is the use of the complex plane, contour integrals and phase portraits for visualising various properties and relationships between periodic functions and their Laurent and trigonometric series. We also derive a periodic analogue of the Hermite integral formula which enables us to analyze interpolation error using contour integrals. We have not been able to find such a formula in the literature. Chapter 2 discusses trigonometric rational interpolation and trigonometric linearized rational least-squares approximations. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to numerically solve these problems. The contribution of this chapter is presented in the form of a robust algorithm for computing trigonometric rational interpolants of prescribed numerator and denominator degrees at an arbitrary grid of interpolation points. The algorithm can also be used to compute trigonometric linearized rational least-squares and trigonometric polynomial least-squares approximations. Chapter 3 deals with the problem of trigonometric minimax approximation of functions, first in a space of trigonometric polynomials and then in a set of trigonometric rational functions. The contribution of this chapter is presented in the form of an algorithm, which to our knowledge, is the first description of a Remez-like algorithm to numerically compute trigonometric minimax polynomial and rational approximations. Our algorithm also uses trigonometric barycentric interpolation and Chebyshev-eigenvalue based root finding. Chapter 4 discusses the Fourier-Padé (called trigonometric Padé) approximation of a function. We review two existing approaches to the problem, both of which are based on rational approximations of a Laurent series. We present a numerical algorithm with examples and compute various type (m, n) trigonometric Padé approximants.
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