Nesta tese propõe-se responder a três principais questões: No primeiro ensaio estuda-se o impacto dos investimentos privados de multinacionais do setor automobilístico no Brasil sobre o crescimento da atividade econômica dos municípios. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que as cidades onde se instalam este tipo de investimentos alcançam um desempenho superior aos outros grupos de municípios sem este recurso. Estes resultados apontam para uma subprovisão de bens públicos esperada em todo agrupamento de cidades, e um crescimento da atividade industrial no grupo de municípios de domicílio dos investimentos em detrimento a um crescimento abaixo da média do grupo de controle dos municípios adjacentes. No segundo ensaio proposto nesta tese, levanta-se a questão sobre qual o impacto do investimento em infraestrutura viária sobre a economia dos municípios do estado de Santa Catarina. Para responder esta questão, o método de regressão de dados em painel foi utilizado para identificar e mensurar o efeito do investimento público em rodovias interestaduais sobre o crescimento econômico municipal. Os resultados apontam para um efeito positivo sobre os municípios adjacentes e aqueles cortados pela rodovia federal. O setor agropecuário tende a perder valor agregado dado uma possível realocação de recursos para o setor de serviços e indústria de transformação. No terceiro e último ensaio, sobre a dinâmica da distribuição espacial da população no Brasil, tem-se como ideia central testar a Lei de Zipf tendo por base as estimativas da dinâmica populacional dos municípios brasileiros e seus limites populacionais (K). Recentes trabalhos na área de economia regional e urbana, e da nova geografia econômica (NGE), retomam o tema sobre a distribuição espacial da população entre as cidades. A principal questão neste ensaio é descobrir sobre a existência de uma tendência na distribuição do tamanho dos municípios brasileiros a atender a Lei de Zipf. Após as estimativas para um estado estacionário na dinâmica populacional dos municípios brasileiros e as estimativas por regressão quantílica da lei de potência, rejeitou-se em quase a totalidade das amostras a existência de um expoente igual a -1. / In this thesis propose to reply three principals’ questions. In the first essay examines the impact of private investment of multinational automobile industry in Brazil about the growth of economic activity of municipalities. The results obtained suggest that the municipalities that settle the investments reach a performance superior to other groups of municipalities. These results point to a underprovision expected of public goods in all groups of municipalities and increasing industrial activity in the municipalities of domicile of the investment over a growth below the average of the control group of adjacent municipalities. In the second essay proposed in this thesis, the question is about what the impact of highway infrastructure investment on the economy of the municipalities in the State of Santa Catarina. To answer this question makes use of panel date regression method to identify and measure the effect of public investment on the municipal economic growth. The results does are positive on the neighbouring and crossways interstate highway, the agriculture sector loses added value due a possible relocation of resources to service and manufacture sector. In the third essay, on the dynamics of spatial distribution of population in the Brazil, the core insight this is to test the Zipf’s Law from estimates of population dynamics of Brazilian municipalities and their population limits (K). Lately, studies on the approach of urban and regional economy and of new economic geography (NEG) recovers’ theme on the spatial distribution of population among cities. The central question in this essay, is whether there is a trend in the distribution of sizes of municipalities meet Zipf's law? After estimates for a steady state in the population dynamics of Brazilian municipalities and estimates for regression quantiles power law rejected in almost all of the samples the presence of an exponent equal to-1.

Nesta tese propõe-se responder a três principais questões: No primeiro ensaio estuda-se o impacto dos investimentos privados de multinacionais do setor automobilístico no Brasil sobre o crescimento da atividade econômica dos municípios. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que as cidades onde se instalam este tipo de investimentos alcançam um desempenho superior aos outros grupos de municípios sem este recurso. Estes resultados apontam para uma subprovisão de bens públicos esperada em todo agrupamento de cidades, e um crescimento da atividade industrial no grupo de municípios de domicílio dos investimentos em detrimento a um crescimento abaixo da média do grupo de controle dos municípios adjacentes. No segundo ensaio proposto nesta tese, levanta-se a questão sobre qual o impacto do investimento em infraestrutura viária sobre a economia dos municípios do estado de Santa Catarina. Para responder esta questão, o método de regressão de dados em painel foi utilizado para identificar e mensurar o efeito do investimento público em rodovias interestaduais sobre o crescimento econômico municipal. Os resultados apontam para um efeito positivo sobre os municípios adjacentes e aqueles cortados pela rodovia federal. O setor agropecuário tende a perder valor agregado dado uma possível realocação de recursos para o setor de serviços e indústria de transformação. No terceiro e último ensaio, sobre a dinâmica da distribuição espacial da população no Brasil, tem-se como ideia central testar a Lei de Zipf tendo por base as estimativas da dinâmica populacional dos municípios brasileiros e seus limites populacionais (K). Recentes trabalhos na área de economia regional e urbana, e da nova geografia econômica (NGE), retomam o tema sobre a distribuição espacial da população entre as cidades. A principal questão neste ensaio é descobrir sobre a existência de uma tendência na distribuição do tamanho dos municípios brasileiros a atender a Lei de Zipf. Após as estimativas para um estado estacionário na dinâmica populacional dos municípios brasileiros e as estimativas por regressão quantílica da lei de potência, rejeitou-se em quase a totalidade das amostras a existência de um expoente igual a -1. / In this thesis propose to reply three principals’ questions. In the first essay examines the impact of private investment of multinational automobile industry in Brazil about the growth of economic activity of municipalities. The results obtained suggest that the municipalities that settle the investments reach a performance superior to other groups of municipalities. These results point to a underprovision expected of public goods in all groups of municipalities and increasing industrial activity in the municipalities of domicile of the investment over a growth below the average of the control group of adjacent municipalities. In the second essay proposed in this thesis, the question is about what the impact of highway infrastructure investment on the economy of the municipalities in the State of Santa Catarina. To answer this question makes use of panel date regression method to identify and measure the effect of public investment on the municipal economic growth. The results does are positive on the neighbouring and crossways interstate highway, the agriculture sector loses added value due a possible relocation of resources to service and manufacture sector. In the third essay, on the dynamics of spatial distribution of population in the Brazil, the core insight this is to test the Zipf’s Law from estimates of population dynamics of Brazilian municipalities and their population limits (K). Lately, studies on the approach of urban and regional economy and of new economic geography (NEG) recovers’ theme on the spatial distribution of population among cities. The central question in this essay, is whether there is a trend in the distribution of sizes of municipalities meet Zipf's law? After estimates for a steady state in the population dynamics of Brazilian municipalities and estimates for regression quantiles power law rejected in almost all of the samples the presence of an exponent equal to-1.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T18:33:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Arnaldo T Chioveto Parte 1.pdf: 3409034 bytes, checksum: 9274698ecad0e72460b284a3c57cf086 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-07 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This reserch focuses on analyzing the relation among the deforestation, the economic growth and the interaction of the cities and micro regions Alto Teles Pires e Sinop, located in the state of Mato Grosso, to the economic development, between the years of 1988 and 2010. This approach has been realized by using as methodology, primarily, the obtaining of the deforested and forested areas in the cities and micro regions studied during this period, every two years, by satellite and geo-processing images. After, the obtaining and organization of the official source data were made followed by the planning and calculations of the attractiveness and outsourcing of them. At this stage, the linearization was performed to estimate the population in years without any base on official data, followed by the deflation, the log transformation and the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) linearization, and the Added Value of Agriculture and Husbandry Sector, industry and service industry. Thereafter the Outsourcing Index (IT), the Interaction Index of a Space Point (IG) and the Attractiveness Index for the Consumer Market Potential (IA). The results have shown that the micro regions of Alto Teles Pires and Sinop had different conducts each, in view of their area locations (Cerrado and Amazon), which implied a distinct economic growth over the period analyzed. In the first decade (1988-1998), also the first decade of the civilian government, the Alto Peres Micro region had already shown a stronger relation and deforestation degree than the Sinop Micro region. In the second period (2000-2010), became clear that the growth of the commercial inter-relation and the service industry in the cities of the Sinop Micro region and the reinforcement of cities in the biome Cerrado in which the agro-industrial sector was implemented in the territory. / O objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar a relação entre o desflorestamento, o crescimento econômico e a interação dos municípios e das microrregiões Alto Teles Pires e Sinop, do estado do Mato Grosso, entre os anos de 1988 a 2010. Foi utilizada como metodologia, a obtenção das áreas de desmate e de floresta dos municípios das microrregiões estudadas no período, em intervalo bianual, por meio de imagens de satélites e de geoprocessamento. Após, foi feita a obtenção e estruturação dos dados de fontes oficiais, seguido do ordenamento e cálculos de atratividade e terciarização dos mesmos. Nessa etapa foi realizada a linearização para estimar a população em anos sem dados oficiais, seguido da deflação, da logaritmização e da linearização do PIB e do Valor Adicionado dos setores agropecuário, industrial e de serviços. Após, foram calculados os Índice de Terciarização (IT), o Índice de Interação de um Ponto no Espaço (IG) e o Índice de Atratividade pelo Potencial do Mercado Consumidor (IA). Os resultados mostraram que as microrregiões Alto Teles Pires e Sinop se comportaram de formas diferenciadas entre si, em vista da localização de suas áreas (Cerrado e Amazônia), o que implicou em um crescimento econômico distinto ao longo do período estudado. Na primeira década (1988 a 1998), também esta a primeira década do governo civil, a Microrregião Alto Teles Pires já mostrava um grau de relações e de desmatamento mais acentuada que na Microrregião Sinop. No segundo período (2000 a 2010), ficou nítido o aumento da inter-relação comercial e do setor de serviços nos municípios da Microrregião Sinop e o fortalecimento de municípios no bioma Cerrado que tiveram o setor agroindustrial implantados no território.

Luftverkehrsprognosen stellen ein wichtiges Instrument dar, die Luftverkehrsinfrastruktur zu beeinflussen. Hinter vielen der Projekte, die von Luftverkehrsprognosen begleitet werden, stehen Interessen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Ausbauvorhaben von Flughäfen, die von eindeutigen Zielen und Wünschen getragen werden. Die Gutachter, die im Rahmen solcher Ausbauvorhaben tätig werden, sind der Gefahr ausgesetzt, beeinflusste Prognosen zu erstellen. Die Art und Intensität dieser Beeinflussung sowie die Methodik dieser Analysen sind Gegenstand dieses Aufsatzes. Zunächst wurden neuere Ergebnisse der OECD und EU erarbeitet und denen der Flughafenstudien gegenübergestellt. Nachfolgend wurde die Intensität der Beeinflussung auf Grundlage einer eigenen Untersuchung analysiert. Dabei wurden politische Entscheidungsträger im Rhein-Main-Gebiet nach Ihrer Verwendung von Studien und deren Ergebnisse befragt. Die Impact Study, als häufigste Forschungsmethodik, wurde in ihre Bestandteile zerlegt und mit der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse, welche die durch die FAA empfohlene Methode ist, verglichen. Grundsätzlich sind solche Gutachten meist externe Analysen aus privatwirtschaftlicher Hand, die einerseits im Auftrag von regionalen Entscheidungsträgern, aber andererseits auch im Auftrag von Flughafen- und Fluggesellschaften angefertigt wurden. Die Unabhängigkeit der Prognosen ist damit gefährdet. Auf Grundlage der (neutralen) OECD- und EU-Ergebnisse zeigte sich, dass etwaige regionale Wirtschaftsimpulse und damit einhergehendes Beschäftigungswachstum durch erhöhten Flugverkehr nicht zu finden sind. Die kritische Analyse von „bezahlten Studien“ ist demnach von Bedeutung. Die Mehrzahl der politischen Amts- und Entscheidungsträger in Deutschland trifft allerdings Entscheidungen auf Basis keiner oder ausschließlich nicht-neutraler, bezahlter Auftragsstudien. Historisch betrachtet ist dies kein Novum. Bereits in den 60er Jahren kann man solche Studien und Entscheidungen nachweisen. Bezüglich des Forschungsdesign zeigte sich, dass Impact-Studien kaum für zur Beurteilung des Luftverkehrs geeignet sind. Sie beziehen die relevanten Effekte nur teilweise in ihre Berechnungen ein. Es wurde eine Reihe von systematischen Fehlern identifiziert. Die FAA-Richtlinien in den USA für methodisch korrekte Studien greifen nur wenig. Für weitere Forschung sehen wir die wichtige Aufgabe, die Methodik der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse für die Prognose möglicher Effekte zur Anwendung zu bringen. / Aviation traffic forecasts and airport analyses are important instruments which influence decisions on aviation related infrastructure. Behind many of such infrastructure projects, which are supported by forecast analyses, one finds political interests. This is especially the case for aviation projects, such as infrastructure enlargement projects of airports, which are motivated by distinct goals and desires. Referees who act within this framework are exposed to the risk of producing biased results. The form and degree of intensity of such influence and manipulation, as well as the methodology of such forecast analyses, are the subject of this working paper. To begin with, newer research results by the OECD and the EU have been formulated and further compared to results of studies commissioned by airport operators. Subsequently, the degree of intensity of such influence has been analysed on the basis of our own research. A survey was thereby produced, investigating the application of neutral and non-neutral studies in the decision-making processes of the public administration in the Rhein-Main-area. Impact studies, which are currently the most used method, have been segmented and compared with studies using full cost-benefit-analysis, the recommended method by the FAA. With regard to these results, it can be argued that most forecast analyses are produced by private consultancies, by order of public entities but also by order of airport operators. The independence of such research and its results is therefore endangered. Recent OECD and EU research results have shown that eventual effects, such as regional economic stimulus and employment growth, are absent. Thus, care in the application of study results in this field is necessary. However, the majority of policy makers (in Germany) unfortunately base their decisions mostly on non-neutral studies. Historically seen, this is not a novelty. Regarding the research design, impact studies are hardly suitable for airport studies. Further, it can be shown that impact studies incorporate mostly only non-negative items in their cash flow calculations, compared to full cost-benefit-analyses which incorporate all relevant items. A number of systematic flaws are further identified. The regulation-guidelines by the FAA, which demand to incorporate all items, have had little impact on the research design of airport studies in the US so far. The promotion and fostering of full cost-benefit-analyses is necessary to lift the quality of airport studies.

No description available.

中國大陸自1978年改革開放後，經濟成長驚人，但是這個成長是伴隨著城鄉之間的差距與地區之間的差距。地區間絕對差距與相對差距都在逐年擴大，以1999年的資料，上海與貴州人均GDP相差16倍，絕對差距為一萬元人民幣。對於區域間發展差異的問題，有些學者從自然環境差異等天賦條件因素解釋；另有一派學者則以依賴理論說明市場自然運作的結果；亦有專家以過去計畫經濟時期的歷史發展來說明國家能力，尤其是財政能力，是消弭差異的主要關鍵；也有人以政府的傾斜政策，將資源導向被傾斜的一方流動，致使東西差異形成。本論文認為經濟事物應回歸經濟的角度來探討，再結合制度（正式與非正式）選擇對於經濟層面的干擾因素，來尋求各地區經濟發展差異的解答。在理論上，以新經濟成長理論為基礎，認為除了生產要素的增加外，資源配置是否有效率亦是經濟成長的重要關鍵，而制度決定資源配置的效率，因此，東西部的制度落差是造成東西部經濟成長差異的源頭。這樣的制度落差可以分為兩個面向來探討：第一是經濟領域上政府的退出；第二是社會關係、法律制度、中介組織等相關配套措施的建立。要使得地區發展能夠得到平衡，管制的解除以及新制度的建立是主要的關鍵，尤其是不合理戶口制度造成勞動市場的不健全以及各地方和全國法律的完善程度。本論文整合時間（1978年到1999年）和橫斷面（28個省市區）的統計數據，使用迴歸分析說明制度變數與經濟成長之間的關係。 / Since the reform in 1978, China has experienced an astonishing economic growth. However, the disparity between the coastal and inner provinces is increasing. According to the 1999 statistics, the GDP in Shanghai is sixteen times of GDP in Guizhou. More and more scholarship focuses on the uneven development in China. The reasons of regional disparity in China have focused on the geography, the operation of market, the weakening of the central government's power, or the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. These can't fully explain China's disparity. I argue that the real reasons for China's disparity lying in the " institutions" (formal and informal) in China. Based on regression analysis of data from 1978 to 1999, my thesis intends to explain the dynamic between institutions and economic growth.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T14:49:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_fabio nunes do nascimento.pdf: 3734250 bytes, checksum: c45bef8a3fc4442c8ed0d68ad93f2401 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-08-03 / This study had as main objective to find the determinants of technology diffusion in the co-generation of energy in the sugar-alcohol sector. Specifically it was intended to work in order to analyze the relationship of technology diffusion in the process of polarization and regional growth; analyzing the composition of the Brazilian energy matrix and the share of energy generation from biomass of sugar cane; show the potential of power generation in the State of Goiás from co-generation and demonstrate that the change in technology used by sugar cane mills in Goiás can generate excess electricity for commercialization, besides the electricity supply for self-consumption. The methodology used for contemplation of the goals consisted of literature review and case study. The study allowed to reach the conclusion that the main determinants of technology diffusion in the sugar-alcohol sector are of economic order. / Este trabalho objetivou identificar os determinantes da difusão tecnológica na cogeração de energia no setor sucroenergético. Especificamente, pretendeu analisar a relação da difusão tecnológica com o processo de polarização e crescimento regional; analisar a composição da matriz energética brasileira e a participação da geração de energia a partir da biomassa de cana-de-açúcar; mostrar o potencial de geração de energia elétrica do Estado de Goiás a partir da cogeração e demonstrar que a alteração na tecnologia utilizada pelas usinas sucroenergéticas em Goiás pode gerar excedentes de energia elétrica para comercialização, além do abastecimento elétrico destinado ao próprio consumo. A metodologia utilizada consistiu em pesquisa bibliográfica e estudo de caso. O estudo permitiu concluir que os principais determinantes da difusão tecnológica no setor sucroenergético são de ordem econômica.

Luftverkehrsprognosen stellen ein wichtiges Instrument dar, die Luftverkehrsinfrastruktur zu beeinflussen. Hinter vielen der Projekte, die von Luftverkehrsprognosen begleitet werden, stehen Interessen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Ausbauvorhaben von Flughäfen, die von eindeutigen Zielen und Wünschen getragen werden. Die Gutachter, die im Rahmen solcher Ausbauvorhaben tätig werden, sind der Gefahr ausgesetzt, beeinflusste Prognosen zu erstellen. Die Art und Intensität dieser Beeinflussung sowie die Methodik dieser Analysen sind Gegenstand dieses Aufsatzes. Zunächst wurden neuere Ergebnisse der OECD und EU erarbeitet und denen der Flughafenstudien gegenübergestellt. Nachfolgend wurde die Intensität der Beeinflussung auf Grundlage einer eigenen Untersuchung analysiert. Dabei wurden politische Entscheidungsträger im Rhein-Main-Gebiet nach Ihrer Verwendung von Studien und deren Ergebnisse befragt. Die Impact Study, als häufigste Forschungsmethodik, wurde in ihre Bestandteile zerlegt und mit der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse, welche die durch die FAA empfohlene Methode ist, verglichen. Grundsätzlich sind solche Gutachten meist externe Analysen aus privatwirtschaftlicher Hand, die einerseits im Auftrag von regionalen Entscheidungsträgern, aber andererseits auch im Auftrag von Flughafen- und Fluggesellschaften angefertigt wurden. Die Unabhängigkeit der Prognosen ist damit gefährdet. Auf Grundlage der (neutralen) OECD- und EU-Ergebnisse zeigte sich, dass etwaige regionale Wirtschaftsimpulse und damit einhergehendes Beschäftigungswachstum durch erhöhten Flugverkehr nicht zu finden sind. Die kritische Analyse von „bezahlten Studien“ ist demnach von Bedeutung. Die Mehrzahl der politischen Amts- und Entscheidungsträger in Deutschland trifft allerdings Entscheidungen auf Basis keiner oder ausschließlich nicht-neutraler, bezahlter Auftragsstudien. Historisch betrachtet ist dies kein Novum. Bereits in den 60er Jahren kann man solche Studien und Entscheidungen nachweisen. Bezüglich des Forschungsdesign zeigte sich, dass Impact-Studien kaum für zur Beurteilung des Luftverkehrs geeignet sind. Sie beziehen die relevanten Effekte nur teilweise in ihre Berechnungen ein. Es wurde eine Reihe von systematischen Fehlern identifiziert. Die FAA-Richtlinien in den USA für methodisch korrekte Studien greifen nur wenig. Für weitere Forschung sehen wir die wichtige Aufgabe, die Methodik der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse für die Prognose möglicher Effekte zur Anwendung zu bringen. / Aviation traffic forecasts and airport analyses are important instruments which influence decisions on aviation related infrastructure. Behind many of such infrastructure projects, which are supported by forecast analyses, one finds political interests. This is especially the case for aviation projects, such as infrastructure enlargement projects of airports, which are motivated by distinct goals and desires. Referees who act within this framework are exposed to the risk of producing biased results. The form and degree of intensity of such influence and manipulation, as well as the methodology of such forecast analyses, are the subject of this working paper. To begin with, newer research results by the OECD and the EU have been formulated and further compared to results of studies commissioned by airport operators. Subsequently, the degree of intensity of such influence has been analysed on the basis of our own research. A survey was thereby produced, investigating the application of neutral and non-neutral studies in the decision-making processes of the public administration in the Rhein-Main-area. Impact studies, which are currently the most used method, have been segmented and compared with studies using full cost-benefit-analysis, the recommended method by the FAA. With regard to these results, it can be argued that most forecast analyses are produced by private consultancies, by order of public entities but also by order of airport operators. The independence of such research and its results is therefore endangered. Recent OECD and EU research results have shown that eventual effects, such as regional economic stimulus and employment growth, are absent. Thus, care in the application of study results in this field is necessary. However, the majority of policy makers (in Germany) unfortunately base their decisions mostly on non-neutral studies. Historically seen, this is not a novelty. Regarding the research design, impact studies are hardly suitable for airport studies. Further, it can be shown that impact studies incorporate mostly only non-negative items in their cash flow calculations, compared to full cost-benefit-analyses which incorporate all relevant items. A number of systematic flaws are further identified. The regulation-guidelines by the FAA, which demand to incorporate all items, have had little impact on the research design of airport studies in the US so far. The promotion and fostering of full cost-benefit-analyses is necessary to lift the quality of airport studies.