<p dir="ltr">Retail prices for eggs surged during the period from early 2022 to mid-2023 in the U.S. Eggs are important to a wide range of people because of their nutritional benefits and cost relative to other protein sources. Thus, rapidly increasing egg prices can cause risks to numerous people. Using social media listening data, we analyzed the relationship between egg prices and online and social media attention and the relationship between egg prices and online and social media sentiment. Our findings suggest that egg prices are associated with the sentiment of the public as expressed in online media. However, the relationship between egg prices and online and social media attention is complex when studying the timing of increased concern with the timing of online news media coverage. Importantly, by leveraging a method of regression discontinuity in time, we show that online and social media conversations about eggs and egg prices tend to increase after the rapid rise in online news coverage. Similarly, online and social media conversations about eggs and egg prices tend to decrease after the rapid rise in online news coverage. This research also provided an example of how a total number of statements and sentiment score of social media listening data can be utilized to capture people’s attention levels, overall sentiment, and how they change over time.</p>

The regional policy of the European Union is financed through a system of structural and investment funds, which allocates substantial amounts during each programming period to boost the regional growth. Currently, the regional policy uses almost a half of the European Union's budget. According to such an extensive investment plan it is believed that the structural funding has a positive impact on the regional performance. This thesis provides an analysis of the Objective 1 (Convergence strategy) treatment effect on the regional GDP and employment growth during two last programming periods 2000-2006 and 2007-2013 using mostly nonparametric estimation method of the regression dis- continuity design. The thesis contributes to existing literature since the current research studies do not provide conclusive results. Based on the estimation re- sults we did not find statistically significant effect of the Objective 1 treatment on the GDP per capita growth nor employment growth. These findings are robust to various model specifications and estimation methods. JEL Classification R11, R58, C21, C31 Keywords the European Union, regional policy, the Objec- tive 1, regression discontinuity design Title The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance Author's e-mail zdarskabarbora@seznam.cz...

Do people acquire more information when they are obligated to participate in elections? This dissertation presents empirical evidence on the effects of compulsory voting laws on the consumption of TV news. In Brazil, the law determines that every literate citizen over the age of eighteen and under seventy at the day of the election is subject to a number of penalties if they don\'t attend the ballots. This provides a natural experiment which allows us to identify the causal effect of being under a compulsory voting regime on information acquisition. Using national survey data on the consumption of media we find that, for those who have been exposed to the law for the first time, compulsory voting has a significant and substantial positive impact on the probability of an individual to watch Brazil\'s main newscast, Rede Globo\'s Jornal Nacional. No impact is found, though, for citizens who transition from the voluntary to the compulsory voting regime when they reach the age of seventy. / Pessoas que são obrigadas a votar procuram fazer isso de maneira informada? Essa dissertação procura saber se a lei de voto obrigatório brasileira induz eleitores a consumirem mais informação via noticiários televisivos. Mais especificamente, procuramos saber se o consumo de informações via o noticiário Jornal Nacional, transmitido pela Rede Globo, aumenta em decorrência da exposição à lei. No Brasil, todo cidadão alfabetizado com idade maior que dezoito e menor que setenta anos está sujeito a uma série de punições caso se abstenha sem justificativa nas eleições. Isso gera um experimento natural que nos permite utilizar a técnica de regressão descontínua para recuperar o efeito causal dessa lei sobre o consumo de informação por parte dos eleitores. Encontramos um aumento de 10,4% na probabilidade do eleitor jovem assistir o programa Jornal Nacional que pode ser atribuído especificamente ao fato desse cidadão ser obrigado a votar. Nenhum efeito é encontrado para cidadãos que deixam de ser obrigados aos setenta anos de idade

This paper studies the evasion of TV license fees in Austria. We exploit border differentials to identify the effect of fees on evasion. Comparing municipalities at the low- and high-fee side of state borders reveals that higher fees trigger significantly more evasion. Our preferred estimator indicates that a one percent increase in fees raises the evasion rate by 0.3 percentage points. The positive effect of fees on evasion is confirmed in different parametric and non-parametric approaches and survives several robustness checks.

Do people acquire more information when they are obligated to participate in elections? This dissertation presents empirical evidence on the effects of compulsory voting laws on the consumption of TV news. In Brazil, the law determines that every literate citizen over the age of eighteen and under seventy at the day of the election is subject to a number of penalties if they don\'t attend the ballots. This provides a natural experiment which allows us to identify the causal effect of being under a compulsory voting regime on information acquisition. Using national survey data on the consumption of media we find that, for those who have been exposed to the law for the first time, compulsory voting has a significant and substantial positive impact on the probability of an individual to watch Brazil\'s main newscast, Rede Globo\'s Jornal Nacional. No impact is found, though, for citizens who transition from the voluntary to the compulsory voting regime when they reach the age of seventy. / Pessoas que são obrigadas a votar procuram fazer isso de maneira informada? Essa dissertação procura saber se a lei de voto obrigatório brasileira induz eleitores a consumirem mais informação via noticiários televisivos. Mais especificamente, procuramos saber se o consumo de informações via o noticiário Jornal Nacional, transmitido pela Rede Globo, aumenta em decorrência da exposição à lei. No Brasil, todo cidadão alfabetizado com idade maior que dezoito e menor que setenta anos está sujeito a uma série de punições caso se abstenha sem justificativa nas eleições. Isso gera um experimento natural que nos permite utilizar a técnica de regressão descontínua para recuperar o efeito causal dessa lei sobre o consumo de informação por parte dos eleitores. Encontramos um aumento de 10,4% na probabilidade do eleitor jovem assistir o programa Jornal Nacional que pode ser atribuído especificamente ao fato desse cidadão ser obrigado a votar. Nenhum efeito é encontrado para cidadãos que deixam de ser obrigados aos setenta anos de idade

This thesis is based on three essays. The first chapter analyses the impact of 27 years of civil war in Angola on human capital, expenditures per adult equivalent and fertility. The prediction of the effects of civil war is done through a neoclassical unitary household model in the tradition of Rosenzweig. Using instrumental variable method, this thesis shows that civil war has a negative and disastrous impact in short-term on health of children, this effect is persistent. Civil war has no impact on expenditures per adult equivalent. It increases enrollment and decreases fertility in the short term. The second chapter ofthis thesis analyzes the effectiveness of a social program in a conflict country such as Angola and explores whether this effectiveness depends on the intensity of the conflict. Our identification strategy is based on the political geography of the deployment of the program based on a model of spatial competition of Hotelling. This thesis shows that the Angola Social Fund had a positive impact on expenditures per adult equivalent and on one of the main anthropometric measurements namely the height for age z-score. The program's effectiveness in function to the intensity of the conflict is analyzed using the local instrumental variable estimator. The thesis shows that the program's effectiveness increases with the intensity of the conflict. The last chapter of this thesis analyzes in the case of Cameroon, the impact of teacher training on HIV/AIDS. The two criteria for selecting participating schools, leads us to choose as identification strategy the regression discontinuity design. This thesis shows that 15 to 17 year old girls in teacher training schools are between 7 and 10 percentage points less likely to have started childbearing. For 12 to 13 year old girls, the likelihood of self-reported abstinence and condom use is also significantly higher in treated schools.

Submitted by Nathan Canen (njcanen@hotmail.com) on 2013-06-24T15:19:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 canen bibdigital.pdf: 1062902 bytes, checksum: fa161af0125b4866558e27daf2adf766 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-06-27T11:38:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 canen bibdigital.pdf: 1062902 bytes, checksum: fa161af0125b4866558e27daf2adf766 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-27T11:39:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 canen bibdigital.pdf: 1062902 bytes, checksum: fa161af0125b4866558e27daf2adf766 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-05 / How do economic shocks affect the behaviour of elections in democracies? Using U.S. Congress electoral data, I test whether sudden shocks affect unequally incumbent par- ties and opponents. This is identified through, among other procedures, a regression discontinuity design. I consider possible theoretical channels for this effect, where cit- izens cannot perfectly observe whether their lack of public goods is due to an adverse shock, or due to private consumption by a politician. I find that, with observable shocks close to the election, there is no effect. Empirical evidence is consistent with the theory. / Como choques econômicos afetam eleições em democracias? Usando dados eleitorais do Congresso dos Estados Unidos, eu testo se choques adversos podem afetar desigualmente partidos incumbentes e oponentes. Esse efeito é identificado, entre vários procedimentos, por uma regressão em descontinuidade. Eu considero possibilidades teóricas para esse efeito, quando cidadãos não conseguem observar perfeitamente se a falta de bens públicos é devido a um choque adverso, ou a consumo privado do político. Quando o choque é observável, não há efeito; enquanto se não fosse, haveria. As evidências empíricas são consistentes com a teoria.

South Africa has the largest HIV-infected population in the world, with 2015 estimates of 7 million people living with HIV and 180,000 AIDS-related deaths. The South African government began scale-up of a public-sector HIV care and treatment program in 2004, and by the end of 2015, 3.4 million HIV-infected individuals were on antiretroviral therapy (ART). When scale-up began in South Africa, ART was only available to HIV-infected individuals with CD4 counts ≤200 cells/µL or WHO clinical stage 4 disease. In 2010, treatment was extended to patients who were pregnant or who had tuberculosis and a CD4 ≤350 cells/µL, and in 2011, eligibility was extended to all patients with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. In 2013 patients with WHO clinical stage 3 disease became eligible. In 2015, the eligibility threshold was increased to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL, and in 2016, the South African National Department of Health announced that the country would implement a “test and treat” strategy, offering free ART to all HIV-infected individuals, regardless of CD4 count. This dissertation examines the effectiveness of several expansions and modifications to South Africa’s treatment program. In study 1, we investigated whether the 2011 extension of HIV treatment to patients with CD4 counts ≤350 cells/µL successfully increased the number of newly-eligible patients on treatment (those with CD4 counts between 201–350 cells/µL) without crowding out previously-eligible patients with more severe disease (CD4 counts ≤200 cells/µL), focusing on a network of rural clinics in KwaZulu-Natal. We found encouraging results, with newly-eligible patients (CD4 201–350) initiating treatment at a greater frequency (73.0 additional patients per month; 95% CI: 42.1; 103.9) and 47% faster than before (95% CI: 19%; 82%), while previously eligible patients (CD4 ≤200) experienced no decline in the number of patients initiating treatment or the speed of treatment uptake. In study 2, we evaluated whether the introduction of a single-pill fixed-dose combination (FDC) treatment for ART initiators in South Africa had an impact on attrition from care compared to the previously-recommended multiple-pill regimen. We focused on an urban clinic in Johannesburg, using four different clinic attendance measures to define attrition (generally a combined measure of loss to follow-up and mortality). An intention-to-treat analysis revealed an estimated 11.3 percentage point decrease in attrition (95% CI: -22.0; -0.6) associated with the policy change, while a regression discontinuity analysis estimated an 18.0 percentage point drop in attrition (95% CI: -33.6; -2.4) associated with single-pill FDC treatment relative to multiple pills, controlling for unmeasured confounding. In study 3, we used stratified instrumental variable analysis to examine whether the effect of FDCs on attrition varied across subsets of the patient population in the same Johannesburg clinic we evaluated in study 2. We saw larger effects among women (RD -0.25; 95% CI: -0.42; -0.09), non-anemic patients (RD -0.24; 95% CI: -0.41; -0.08), patients with early-stage (as opposed to advanced) clinical disease (RD -0.20; 95% CI: -0.32; -0.07), and those with high CD4 counts (for CD4 ≥350 cells/µL, RD -0.58; 95% CI: -1.58; 0.42). These results suggest that healthier patients saw the greatest improvement in retention in care following the switch from multiple-pill to single-pill regimens. In an era where the healthiest HIV-infected patients are now being targeted for ART treatment, FDCs can play a large role in preventing attrition from care. These three studies depict an HIV program that has successfully grown to treat increasing numbers of patients using up-to-date strategies of care. Given the immense scale and cost of South Africa’s HIV treatment program, it is important to continue to monitor its effectiveness, especially as it introduces new treatments and strategies and adapts to the changing epidemic.

No description available.

This paper examines the causal effect of niche parties’ council representation on policy outcomes in Spain between 2003 and 2022. Focusing on the far-left IU and far-right VOX as niche parties, it utilizes local-level data on municipal elections. To account for possible endogeneity, I apply a regression discontinuity design using the 5% electoral admission threshold, generating quasi-experimental variation in the probability that a niche party is represented in the council. I show that if IU obtains council representation, municipal budgets shift from a surplus to a deficit. Moreover, I find large effects on revenue and spending if PSOE is forming the coalition, even if it is not the strongest party in the election. These findings suggest that IU plays a crucial role as a coalition partner, exerting a considerable influence on local policies. Conversely, there seem to be no effects of IU’s representation for single-party majority governments. This indicates that in contrast to research looking at parties’ policy positions, bargaining about resources rather than electoral competition for voters drives the results. Additionally, I provide evidence for spillover effects to the regional level, resulting in a higher level of party favoritism between regional and local governments due to IU’s council representation. Regarding VOX’s entry into the council, I find a substantial reduction in fee revenues.